How to Trade the Toby Crabel Patterns

Toby Crabel is a short-term futures trader and the author of Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout (1990), a now out-of-print book that defined the patterns and opening-range breakout strategy that made his approach influential among short-term traders. He later founded Crabel Capital Management, a systematic trading firm. 

 

 

The pattern forms yesterday; the trade is taken in the next session.  

A pattern scan is taken at 5:30 p.m. ET, in the halt before the 6:00 p.m. reopen, and kept until the next one. That is when these sessions have a finished high, low, and close, so the row is an end-of-day pattern. Earlier, the bar is still forming. After 6:00 p.m. the new session is left out until the next 5:30 p.m. scan. Friday's scan stays up until Monday at 5:30 p.m. ET. A holiday close can come earlier.  

In his book, Crabel examined whether relationships among the open, high, low, and close could reveal repeatable, tradable patterns. He presented computer-tested answers to common short-term trading questions across five sections: opening-range breakouts; short-term price patterns; expansion and contraction patterns; combinations of price patterns with expansion and contraction; and openings and closings within different segments of a price bar.

Contraction occurs when a range stops expanding: a narrow-range (NR) bar, an inside day (ID), or several consecutive bars of either type, with the tightest range at the end of the contraction. Expansion is the breakout from that range, entered at the next open. A wide spread (WS) reading indicates that the breakout has already carried price beyond the prior range.

NR (Narrow Range): A price bar whose range is narrower than the previous bar. Its opposite is WS. Next to NR4, NR5, and NR7 it is technically NR2.

NR4 (Narrow Range 4): A price bar whose range is narrower than each of the previous three bars, marking the narrowest range in four bars. Its opposite is WS4. NR, NR5, and NR7 are also closely watched patterns.

NR5 (Narrow Range 5): A price bar whose range is narrower than each of the previous four bars, marking the narrowest range in five bars. Its opposite is WS5. NR, NR4, and NR7 are also closely watched patterns.

NR7 (Narrow Range 7): A price bar whose range is narrower than each of the previous six bars, marking the narrowest range in seven bars. Its opposite is WS7. NR, NR4, and NR5 are also closely watched patterns.

WS (Wide Spread): A price bar whose range is wider than the previous bar. Its opposite is NR. Next to WS4, WS5, and WS7 it is technically WS2.

WS4 (Wide Spread 4): A price bar whose range is wider than each of the previous three bars, marking the widest range in four bars. Its opposite is NR4. WS, WS5, and WS7 are also closely watched patterns.

WS5 (Wide Spread 5): A price bar whose range is wider than each of the previous four bars, marking the widest range in five bars. Its opposite is NR5. WS, WS4, and WS7 are also closely watched patterns.

WS7 (Wide Spread 7): A price bar whose range is wider than each of the previous six bars, marking the widest range in seven bars. Its opposite is NR7. WS, WS4, and WS5 are also closely watched patterns.

ID (Inside Day): A bar whose high is below the previous high and whose low is above the previous low, so the session sits inside the prior bar.

OD (Outside Day): A bar whose high is above the previous high and whose low is below the previous low, so the session takes out both sides of the prior bar.

IDnr4 (Inside Day Narrow Range 4): An inside day that is also an NR4. The bar sits inside the prior bar, and its range is narrower than each of the previous three bars.

2BNR (2 Bar Narrow Range): The two-bar range, higher high minus lower low, is the narrowest two-bar range of the last 20 sessions.

3BNR (3 Bar Narrow Range): The three-bar range, higher high minus lower low, is the narrowest three-bar range of the last 20 sessions.

4BNR (4 Bar Narrow Range): The four-bar range, higher high minus lower low, is the narrowest four-bar range of the last 30 sessions.

8BNR (8 Bar Narrow Range): The eight-bar range, higher high minus lower low, is the narrowest eight-bar range of the last 40 sessions.

Bear Hook: An NR with the open below the previous bar's low and the close above the previous bar's close.

Bull Hook: An NR with the open above the previous bar's high and the close below the previous bar's close.

Stretch: The 10-session average of the smaller open-to-extreme distance, open to high or open to low. It sets the distance for an ORB or ORBP entry and stop.

The pattern forms yesterday; the trade is taken in the next session. 

ORB (Opening Range Breakout): A trade at a preset distance off the opening range. The first side to trade is the position.

ORBP (Opening Range Breakout Preference): The same trade, taken in one chosen direction only.

Stretch is the entry distance, not a setup. The opening range is the first 30 seconds. A buy stop goes one Stretch above that high and a sell stop one Stretch below that low. On an ORB the first stop filled is the trade and the other stop is the protective stop. On an ORBP only the preferred side is working; if price trades Stretch the other way first, cancel, and place the protective stop only after the fill. Later tests in the book often used a fixed distance off the open and flattened on that day's close so every test shared one number. The operating rule is Stretch off the opening range.

NR, NR4, NR5, and NR7 do not pick a side. Take a two-sided ORB the next day. NR7 is the case he tested bar by bar: entry off the open, out on the close, and those trades beat an ORB taken on any day. ID is the same two-sided ORB, unless the market is already running, in which case drop the against-trend stop and take ORBP with the run. IDnr4 is the preferred case. It beat ID alone, NR4 alone, and an ORB on any day, and it is best when it ends a run of closes already pointing one way. 2BNR, 3BNR, 4BNR, and 8BNR are the same idea over a longer rest. Crabel defines all four. The longer the congestion, the more it is a springboard. He did not publish the same tick tests for these as for NR4 and NR7.

Hooks pick the side, so use ORBP. After a Bear Hook, sell only. Do not buy it. The exception is a gap up that holds through mid-session. After a Bull Hook, prefer the buy, and treat it as the weaker of the two. It is better if the next open is below the hook close; once that close is traded, upside continuation is the expectation. A fast move against the bias means stand aside.

WS, WS4, WS5, and WS7 are the expansion the contraction was waiting for, not a fresh setup. WS7 is momentum. An OD is the same class: both sides of the prior bar were already taken out. A True in those rows means the breakout day already happened.

There is no fixed price target. The tested edge is the close of the entry day. A two- or three-day hold is allowed only if that session is already substantially profitable. 

The ideal fill is in the first ten minutes, with the open as one extreme of that thrust. A large move in the first fifteen minutes is an Early Entry, and continuation is the normal case. 

Move the stop to flat within an hour; on the S&P he used five to ten minutes. If price does not leave the entry, the trade is suspect. Scale out with more than one contract and trail the rest. 

A fill late in the day is the worst entry; cut the size as the session ages, or skip it. If you miss the break, one or two entries on a 3/8 to 1/2 retracement of the range already made are allowed, with the stop beyond the 5/8 level. A third retracement is not. 

Whichever side of Stretch trades first is the bias for the next two or three hours, even with no position. Do not fade that first move unless it is against the intermediate trend and the pattern agrees with the trend. 

ES, NQ, YM, BTC, GC, and CL Crabel patterns above are valid from Wednesday, 

October 14, 5:30 p.m. ET through the session that ends Thursday, October 15, at 5:00 p.m. ET.  

See also:

Toby Crabel Pattern Scanner for ES, NQ, YM, BTC, GC, and CL. 

Toby Crabel (1990) - The Principle of Contraction/Expansion.

Larry Williams (2025) - How Markets Move: The Natural Cycle of Range Change.

Concretum Research (2026) - Can Short-Term Trading Scale to $5B? Toby Crabel Proves It Can.

ES Coiled: Crabel Stack vs. October Surprise

ES is locked in a multi-bar contraction — NR7, NR4, 2BNR, 3BNR and a tied 4BNR — the tightest cluster of Crabel patterns in weeks, with price grinding inside a 29-point cage while the calendar keeps ticking. 

ES Crabel Pattern Analysis | October 13, 2026

 

Volatility has been compressed, not eliminated. Mid-October and the market is still waiting for the October surprise to pick a side and force the expansion the patterns have been setting up.

 

 

See also:

Toby Crabel Pattern Scanner. 

Larry Williams (October 13, 2026) - Is a Year-End Stock Market Rally Coming? 

Larry Williams (October 1, 2026) - My Forecast for the Rest of 2026. 

Larry Williams (2025) - How Markets Move: The Natural Cycle of Range Change.

Toby Crabel (1990) - The Principle of Contraction/Expansion.

Stacey Burke (2026) - Smart Money Concepts: An 80-Year History.

Nicholas D. Savino (October 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for October 2026.

S&P 500 vs. Geomagnetic Ap Index and Kp Index

S&P 500 vs. Ap Index (May–Nov 2026).  Projected Ap Index Peaks (+4-Day Lag) = Expected S&P 500 Lows:

Oct 14 (Wed), Oct 17 (Sat), Oct 26 (Mon), Nov 4 (Wed), Nov 13 (Fri), Nov 22 (Sun).

The time it takes for a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) to reach the Earth depends on several factors, such as the speed of the CME, the density of the solar wind, and the position of the Earth relative to the Sun. On average, a CME can take anywhere from 1 to 5 days to reach the Earth: fast CMEs (speeds > 1000 km/s) 1-2 days, average CMEs (speeds ~500-1000 km/s) 2-3 days, and slow CMEs (speeds < 500 km/s) 3-5 days.

Geomagnetic disturbances (elevated Ap index) are hypothesized to subtly impair collective mood and heighten risk aversion. Market participants may misattribute this psychological distress to economic fundamentals, leading elevated Ap to precede S&P 500 lows and trend reversals by a short lag of a few calendar days.

To evaluate this relationship, historical NOAA 45-day Ap forecasts (updated daily) were parsed into a continuous daily series using the most recent available issues. These values were correlated against daily S&P 500 close-to-close and absolute returns across 0 to +5 calendar-day lags from January 1, 2020, to present. Across the full sample, the 45-day forecast displays only modest directional correlation with next-day price movements; its primary statistical signal is a positive link to subsequent absolute returns (volatility), currently peaking around +4 to +5 days.

However, this optimal lag lacks long-term stability—holding near +4 days throughout the summer and early fall before shifting in recent windows—reflecting the limited predictive skill of multi-week geomagnetic forecasts. Comparative analysis shows that NOAA's 27-day Ap outlook provides neither stronger directional lead times nor greater stability than the 45-day series. Because the 27-day projection updates only weekly, its lower publication frequency introduces additional noise, making lead-lag relationships harder to measure than in the daily 45-day series.

The Ap Index (used in NOAA's 45- and 27-day forecasts) is the linear counterpart of the quasi-logarithmic Kp Index (used in NOAA's 3-day forecast). Each 3-hour Kp value converts to an equivalent amplitude via a fixed table (Kp 0→0, 1→3, 2→7, 3→15, 4→27, 5→48, 6→80, 7→140, 8→240, 9→400); the daily Ap is the average of those eight 3-hour values. The two indices therefore track the same geomagnetic activity on different scales.

 

NOAA's latest 3-day forecast above shows a peak Kp of 5 (equivalent Ap ≈ 48) on Tuesday, October 13, between 06:00 and 09:00 UTC (2:00–5:00 a.m. ET). Shifting that interval forward by three calendar days points to Friday, October 16; a four-day shift points to Saturday. This suggests another S&P 500 low may arrive by the end of the trading week.

To evaluate shorter-term dynamics, 180 days of NOAA 3-day Kp forecasts were compiled, converted to 3-hour equivalent Ap, adjusted to Eastern Time (ET), and exhaustively tested across lags of 0 to 120 hours against hourly S&P 500 closes to identify the shift with the strongest negative correlation to price level. The latest weekly charts above display hourly S&P 500 OHLC bars (left scale) overlaid with the 3-hour equivalent Ap series shifted forward by the optimal +45 hours on an inverted right scale. Each panel spans Saturday through the following Sunday to show the complete trading week in context.  

 

This optimal +45-hour lag differs from the +3 to +5 calendar-day lag observed on daily Ap charts because the NOAA 3-day forecast model (updated twice daily at 00:30 and 12:30 UTC; during EDT / UTC−4, this corresponds to 8:30 p.m. ET the previous day and 8:30 a.m. ET the same day) evaluates high-resolution, short-horizon Kp/Ap data against hourly prices over a shorter sample window, where forecast decay and short-term noise shift the best-fit alignment relative to multi-month realized daily Ap metrics.

 

See also:

TPR (August 22, 2026) - S&P 500 vs. Ap Index: +3-Day Lag and Limits of Multi-Week Forecasting.

Jeffrey A. Hansen  (February 2, 2026) - Physics-Based Forecasts of Investment Sentiment.

Jeffrey A. Hansen (October 2, 2026) - Physics-Based Forecasts: US Equities.

TPR - Sun and Markets.

The Counterfeit Empire: How the EU Occupies Europe | Speculum Orientis

Plain language about the European Union is forbidden. Its apologists chant "peace," "cooperation," "human rights," but behind the litany stands a labyrinth of rule designed so that ordinary men never grasp how their lives are governed. Tradition sees no partnership of fatherlands here. The EU is an Atlanticist occupation imposed after 1945, built to extinguish organic sovereignty, erase Europe's qualitative order, and chain the continent to a foreign hegemon. Its centralisation is not the fault; its spiritual void and managerial tyranny are.

Locking Europe into permanent subordination.

The Historical Roots: An Empire Prevented

The official story sells the European project as a noble escape from war. The truth is uglier. After the Second World War, the United States required a Europe shattered enough never to threaten its interests or drift toward independence. The answer was integration—not a free union of peoples, but an occupation logic made permanent.

The Marshall Plan was the economic bait. The institutional trap was the European Coal and Steel Community, shaped by Jean Monnet, a technocrat deep in Anglo-American financial and intelligence circuits. Monnet's blueprint skipped parliaments and national legitimacies. American money, including covert CIA funds for the European Movement, manufactured consent among a beaten elite. The Schuman Declaration of 1950 was drafted in Monnet's office and approved by the US Secretary of State before any European public heard a word. From the first breath, the project was an Atlanticist protectorate, foreclosing any authentic European Imperium in favour of a managerial pseudo-empire.

While official Europe preached reconciliation, the transatlantic deep state planted a paramilitary dagger under the continent: Operation Gladio, stay-behind armies coordinated by NATO and the CIA, buried across Western Europe. Its public mission was resistance to a Soviet invasion; its actual function was internal control—false-flag terror, a strategy of tension to discredit national and communist movements, keeping populations fearful and pliant. Gladio did not only target the Left; it shattered any truly European imperial project that might rise outside Atlanticist command. The dream of a Europe united not by paperwork but by spiritual authority and organic hierarchy was replaced by a bureaucratic anti-empire serving an overseas merchant power.

» Protecting our democracy and European values. «
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission,
Brussels, October 9, 2026.

 

The Institutional Labyrinth: A Deliberate Maze

The EU's structure is no accident. It is a deliberate maze—a tangle of competences and procedures where no voter can locate responsibility, so no popular will can strike. The "institutional triangle" of Commission, Council, and Parliament is a screen. The true architecture places the Commission at the centre: an unelected executive that monopolises the right to propose laws. Flanking it stand the European Court of Justice and the European Central Bank—three bodies united by a single principle, insulation from any electoral sanction. The Parliament cannot initiate legislation and is reduced to secret trilogue deals; the Council of ministers offers the illusion of national sovereignty, but qualified majority voting routinely overrules dissent, and the Council's agenda is steered by the very Commission no voter can remove.

Hail the Cocaine Dwarf: Von der Leyen to send Ukraine another €3 billion next week, on top of her regular €1.24 billion monthly tribute.

The Commission: The Inverted Hierarchy

The European Commission is the true executive. It alone possesses the near-monopoly of legislative initiative. It drafts regulations that penetrate every corner of national life, polices compliance, negotiates treaties, and can drag member states before the Court. Yet no voter in any election has ever cast a ballot for the College of Commissioners.

Even by democracy's own debased standards, the Commission is a fraud. But the deeper scandal—for those who still see—is not the missing mandate. It is that a purely administrative, economic-technocratic caste has usurped the station that belongs to spiritual and warrior authority. This is the revolt of the lower functions—the manager, the merchant, the rootless expert—against the higher orders of priest and king, an inversion that any traditional doctrine would recognise. The Commission is that inversion made flesh: an unelected college of economic functionaries, drawn from the lowest caste of market technocrats, deciding the identity and destiny of Europe's peoples. Their cabinet meetings are secret; their oath demands loyalty not to any nation but to the abstract deity of the acquis communautaire. They are the priesthood of a counterfeit religion, pushing "ever closer union" as secular salvation.

 

Woke liberal fascism—compulsory celebration of rootlessness, fluid identities, anti-traditional egalitarianism—

is the apparatus's state religion. It is the necessary value-system of a regime that has inverted all values. 

The Court: Qualities Erased

If the Commission is the engine, the Court is the silent sovereign. Through direct effect, supremacy, and implied powers, it has built a self-expanding federal legal order where EU law trumps all national law, including constitutional law. The supposed limits—conferral, subsidiarity, proportionality—have been hollowed into nothing. Conferral, which says the Union acts only within given competences, is bypassed by the Court's teleological reading: any national rule with a cross-border economic echo can be sucked into the centralising vortex. Subsidiarity, the promise that decisions stay close to the citizen, is dead; the Court always defers to the Commission's claim that Union action is more "effective." The ratchet turns one way. What is Europeanised never returns.

 

Sincere cooperation finishes the trap. Dressed as mutual loyalty, it becomes a command of obedience when the Commission or Court wield it. A member state whose constitutional court dares assert sovereignty, or whose government voices a different civilisational vision, is accused of violating this duty. Sincere cooperation is a muzzle, a juridical weapon to silence peoples who refuse the homogeneous mass. This is the reign of quantity: uniform legal norms erasing every qualitative distinction, reducing all that is noble and differentiated to an administrative formula.

 

BlackRock Merz assures the Cocaine Dwarf an extra €90 billion, October 4, 2026. 

 

The Charter: Deception as High Politics

The Charter of Fundamental Rights was proclaimed non-binding at Nice in 2000 because Britain and Poland flatly refused to let a supranational bill of rights override their traditions. That rejection should have killed it. Instead, the Lisbon Treaty smuggled it into binding law. Opt-out protocols were concocted, but the Court reads them as narrowly as possible.

Sold as a shield for the individual, the Charter is an engine of egalitarian ideology. The Commission's "rule of law" mechanism, invoked in the name of Charter values, coerces dissident nations that resist the Brussels social consensus. Traditional moral order, organic community, and faith are treated as obstacles to be dismantled. The same institutional class that ran Gladio's clandestine war against self-determination now lectures the continent on human rights. The velvet glove of "fundamental rights" hides the iron fist of homogenisation.

 

The ECB: The Monetary Absolute

The ECB is unaccountable power in its rawest form. The eurozone surrendered monetary sovereignty to an institution whose governing council deliberates in secret, cannot take instructions from any government, and has, in crisis, dictated austerity to elected parliaments in Greece, Italy, and elsewhere. A currency governed by bankers without mandate is the ultimate symbol of the modern inversion: the merchant's logic usurps the royal function, the quantitative rules the qualitative absolutely. The ECB holds the strings of national solvency; democratic choices that displease the Frankfurt technocracy are punished by market pressure and liquidity denial. The single currency was never a tool of prosperity—it was a cage.

The Ever-Growing Union: Aggression Without End

The treaties enshrine "ever closer union." Not a poetic wish—a constitutional engine that mandates limitless expansion. The aggression of the EU does not spring from a will to organic unity. A true Imperium would honour the hierarchical articulation of peoples, nations, and functions. The EU's totalitarian impulse is that of a purely economic-ideological machine that cannot tolerate any qualitative remainder, any sacred immunity.

Hence the invasion of every sphere: working time, agriculture, state aid, environment, data, immigration quotas, foreign policy. And most visibly, migration. Mass immigration, imposed against the consent of nations and dismantling the demographic continuity of Europe, is no accident of mismanagement. It is a deliberate instrument of qualitative dissolution. The full anatomy of this transformation is laid out in Notes from a Civilization in Winter.

The proposed "chat control" regulation mandates the scanning of all private digital communications, breaking encryption under the alibi of protecting children. This is the surveillance state creeping through the back door, pushed by an unelected bureaucracy that brands every opponent an apologist for abuse. Woke liberal fascism—compulsory celebration of rootlessness, fluid identities, anti-traditional egalitarianism—is the apparatus's state religion. It is the necessary value-system of a regime that has inverted all values: the low exalted, the rooted despised, the spiritual mocked, while the administrator occupies the place once held by kings, aristocracies, and priests.

The Counterfeit Empire and the Need to Stop It

Every attempt to tame the beast from within has failed. The Commission holds the pen; the Court twists every ambiguity toward Brussels' absolute claim; the Parliament is a lobby conveyor belt; the ECB grips the solvency whip. Conferral is a fiction. Subsidiarity is a lie. The institutions are irreversible because they serve not Europe but an Atlanticist order that must prevent any true European power from arising.

The path forward cannot be a return to the liberal nation-state—that atomising, anti-traditional form that itself prepared the ground for this occupation. To clear away Brussels is not to restore the Europe of 1939; it is to open the possibility of an order that is neither the nation-state nor the managerial pseudo-empire. An order rooted in spiritual authority and qualitative differentiation, whatever shape it takes, has nothing in common with the procedural, egalitarian machine sitting in Brussels, Frankfurt, and Luxembourg.

The "ever closer union" of the treaties is a demonic parody of true unity. It will not stop on its own. It must be stopped. And after its end, the ancient, sovereign, qualitatively ordered Europe may finally breathe again.

Quoted from:
Speculum Orientis (July 20, 2026) - The Counterfeit Empire: How the European Union Occupies Europe.

 See also:

Lorenzo Maria Pacini (2026) - Europe as a Multipolar Civilization and the Diplomacy of Logoi.

Col. Lawrence Wilkerson (2026) - CIA, MI6, and Mossad Own Europe's Political Class. 

Anthony Rubin (2026) - Replacing Europe: An Undercover Look at Mass Migration. 

René Guénon (1945) - The Reign of Quantity and the Signs of the Times.

Alexander L. Chizhevsky (1922) - Mass Excitability during Solar Cycle 25 (2019–2030).

Physics of the Flock: The Starlings' Mesmerizing Aerial Ballet

Every autumn and winter at dusk, the skies above Rome host one of nature’s most extraordinary spectacles: the murmuration of European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Before settling into communal roosts, tens of thousands of birds sweep through the air in dense, shape-shifting clouds. They twist, contract, and expand in a seamless aerial ballet—moving not as individual creatures, but as a single living organism.

Mesmerizing masterpiece of fluid geometry.

 

Despite the illusion of choreography, this display has no leader, no script, and no central command. Instead, a starling murmuration is emergent collective intelligence in action—a complex, ordered system arising entirely from local, decentralized rules.

Tracking and responding in real time.

 

Groundbreaking 3D reconstruction studies in Rome, led by Nobel laureate Giorgio Parisi and his collaborators, unlocked the mechanics behind this phenomenon. Awarded the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics for his work on complex systems, Parisi demonstrated that starlings do not track the entire flock or react within a fixed distance. Instead, each bird relies on a dynamic topological rule—continuously monitoring and responding to a fixed network of roughly six or seven neighbors.

Order from chaos.

  

By following three simple rules—aligning speed and direction with these neighbors, maintaining cohesion, and avoiding collisions—the flock achieves scale-free correlation. Information propagates across thousands of birds instantly, without signal decay. When a single starling shifts trajectory, that split-second decision sweeps through the flock in milliseconds, enabling the entire mass to pivot as a unified entity.

Survival, not aesthetics.

 

While stunning to witness, murmurations are driven by survival, not aesthetics. Unlike the rigid V-formations of migrating waterfowl, flamingos, pelicans, storks, and cranes—which maximize aerodynamic efficiency—the dynamic swarms of starlings, dunlins, queleas, and blackbirds function as an adaptive defensive shield against airborne predators like peregrine falcons, merlins, hawks, buzzards, and owls. The dense, shifting wave creates both a dilution effect—reducing individual mortality risk—and target confusion, overwhelming a raptor’s ability to lock onto a single bird.

 

Reacting like a single organism.

 

Beyond defense, these aerial gatherings serve as visual beacons, guiding distant starlings to safe, shared roosts. As twilight fades, the flock descends as one—securing safety in numbers and vital communal warmth through the cold night.

 

Shadows Over Brasília: The Unseen Election Handlers | Eduardo Vasco

The counting of votes in the first round of Brazil's general elections was the subject of great controversy. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, was ahead of Lula in the official count, with 49.6%, against 42.2% for the president seeking re-election.

 » As long as I count the Votes, what are you going to do about it? « 
Thomas Nast, Harper's Weekly, October 7, 1871.

The Sixty-Minute Blackout

64.8% of the polling stations had been tallied up to that point. But the count was halted for more than an hour. Strangely, the votes for governor, senator and deputies continued to be counted normally. Only the presidential count was halted. The count was halted at 7:06 p.m. (Brasília time), with 64.8% of the ballots tallied. Only at 8:08 p.m. were the new results presented, already with 84.96% of the ballots tallied.

A Statistical Inversion

And, even more strangely, when the presidential count resumed, Flávio Bolsonaro's upward trend and Lula's downward trend were reversed. The opposition candidate's votes plummeted, while those of the current president rose. Flávio Bolsonaro was less than 0.5% away from the victory that would hand him the presidential sash. He lost more than 2%, ending with 47.03%, while Lula gained almost 3%, ending with 45.16%. It seemed that Flávio Bolsonaro would dethrone Lula right in the first round. But, after more than an hour of halted counting, Lula managed to recover and the race will only be decided in the second round.

 

Lula's disastrous tenure combined a globalist woke socialist agenda, incompetence, staggering
corruption and clientelism, surging crime, political censorship and persecution, and Global South

treason: vetoing Venezuela’s BRICS membership, empty populist anti-US propaganda, hollow

peacenik Ukraine/Gaza/Iran rhetoric, and cheating on the Russia and China alliances. 

He was Obama's and Biden's pet, and the CIA rigged elections for him.

The Infallibility Paradox

The official justification was given by the president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Kassio Nunes Marques, who is also a justice on the Supreme Federal Court (STF). "What happened was a data congestion. In every election, we are surprised by some incident, which is natural for those who deal with complex and highly varied systems," he said. "At first, it is not known whether this was derived from another problem. What our IT found was a flow [of data] above the normal level, and that congestion caused a delay," he added.

Servicing empire, genocide, oligarchy, deception and raw treason unveiled: Milei and

Bolsonaro, Latin America's ultimate Zionist golems and submissive Mossad-CIA stooges. 

Both are Trump's and Netanyahu's pets, and they rig elections for them.  

 

There is an aggressive propaganda campaign in Brazil, spearheaded by the Electoral Justice, to convince citizens that elections are 100% clean. The main focus of this propaganda is precisely the electronic voting machines. Judicial institutions and media outlets give wide dissemination to the Electoral Justice's claims about the total reliability of the electronic voting machines, even highlighting that they are tested before the election and then sealed so that no one can access them.

So why did the machines suffer a kind of breakdown, if they had been rigorously tested? Well, the oh-so-wise TSE has full knowledge of the number of eligible voters and of the number of votes that can be recorded in the machines, including in each polling station. The Electoral Justice's propaganda tells the public that the machines are fully prepared in advance to record and tally voters' votes perfectly.

The "New Left" abandoned class struggle and fighting the oligarchy for identity politics and climate protection, bankrolled and directed by the CIA, USAID, NED, IRI, NDI, CIPE, the Solidarity Center, Soros NGOs, and globalist oligarchs. While 'left-leaning' billionaires weaponized a horizontal culture war to turn the masses against each other, 'right-leaning' oligarchs and foundations—Koch Brothers, Musk, Atlas Network, The Madrid Forum, etcetera—engineered pro-US, pro-Israeli Zionist leaders, narcos, and sociopaths to secure control. Divide and rule. It works. Now enter the reapers.

No flow of data "above the normal level" that would lead to system congestion should occur, because the most varied data and statistics regarding vote recording are known and the calculations are perfectly feasible. The infallibility of the electronic voting machines requires that all possible outcomes be predictable and that, therefore, there be no anomaly whatsoever.

Jair Bolsonaro (Flavio's father) speaking in 2017 at the Brasília Masonic lodge

about governance problems, and the need for a non-obstructive president.

 

Flavio Bolsonaro campaigning in 2026 in English and invoking "God bless Israel"

 —a textbook case of the "New Right's" mental colonization and degeneracy.

 

» Lord, give me the opportunity to be president of Brazil, because I

believe it is Your project. Give me wisdom, courage, strength, and

health to do the best work for the Brazilian people. Heal our nation. «  

An Evangelical Zionist wannabe divine project manager’s TV prayer.

 

Fresh off a meeting with genocide high priest Netanyahu, young Flávio—the "God, family, and fatherland" crusader out to "crush socialism in Brazil"—was baptized in the Jordan River earlier this year. A more joyful part of the Evangelical's hastening Armageddon cult, obviously.

So how is it possible, then, that such a perfect system—as it is portrayed by the institutions of the Brazilian State—suffers a failure which, once supposedly resolved, so radically changed the trend of the presidential votes?

The High Priests of the Algorithm

It may be a coincidence that Flávio Bolsonaro plummeted and Lula rose after the voting machines failed. But who knows? The TSE president acknowledged that the electronic voting system is "complex." Only highly qualified specialists, from the TSE itself and from technology companies, can access it and understand it, according to the Electoral Justice. Thus, the fate of an entire country for the next four years rests in the hands of these specialists—150 technicians unknown to the public. The tally of votes from the machines is fully automated; it passes through no human being. An even more select number of 22 employees access the automated vote totalization.

» Washington think tanks still consider Brazil a "swing state," and controlling the policies of South

America's industrial giant remains central to US efforts to limit and sabotage BRICS in the region. « 

This means that 214 million Brazilians need to trust those 150 or 22 Egyptian priests to interpret that occult science. They must be the most enlightened beings on planet Earth—100% honest, upright, immaculate and virginal. Even the STF justices, who over the past 15 years have been presented as impeccable, virtuous and chaste individuals, now appear embroiled in the biggest corruption scandal in Brazil's recent history, yet those anonymous specialists deserve citizens' most absolute trust.

Lessons from Karlsruhe

It was for reasons such as these that the Supreme Court of Germany declared electronic voting unconstitutional: 

"Every citizen must be able to understand and verify the central stages of elections in a reliable manner and without any prior specialized technical knowledge."

The verdict, dated 2009, concludes:

"An electoral procedure in which the voter cannot reliably understand whether his or her vote was recorded in an unfalsifiable manner and included in the tally of the election result, and how the total of votes cast is assigned and counted, excludes central elements of the electoral procedure from public scrutiny and therefore fails to meet constitutional requirements."

Judicial Partisanship and the Spectacle of Choice

The Brazilian judicial system is mired in its greatest crisis in history and is living through a true Wild West, with partisan feuds interfering in the functioning of its work. Partisanship, in fact, has contaminated most of the judiciary, including the TSE. In the final stretch of these elections, decisions by the Electoral Justice, backed by the dominant wing of the STF, favored Lula.

John Kiriakou: » Credible evidence that the CIA is involved. « 

 

It is evident that this dominant wing (represented by justices Alexandre de Moraes, Gilmar Mendes and Flávio Dino) does not want a victory of Bolsonarismo, for it is their declared political enemy. These justices have acted, in recent years, as true vigilantes against Bolsonarismo. Now that they themselves have been caught in extremely promiscuous dealings with a banker who corrupted countless high-ranking state officials, their bureaucratic careers are threatened. 

 

Brazil? » We have a lot to do there. « 

 US Southern Command General Laura J. Richardson, 2023.

Lula's continuity is a hope of salvation for these gentlemen, for the president is beholden to them and cannot break that commitment without risking his own neck, given the level of dependence Lula has contracted toward the STF's top brass. Meanwhile, a Flávio Bolsonaro victory would tend to lead to a clash with the heads of these institutions—although the opposition candidate himself has shown little willingness to confront them, because those who control elections in Brazil (international financial capital) demand moderation and pacification, otherwise they will make life difficult for anyone elected president.

And the people are treated like cattle, victims of a system they cannot understand, so that their exploitation may be perpetuated through the staging of the "festival of democracy."

Quoted from:
Eduardo Vasco (October 7, 2026) - Electronic voting machines are not reliable.

 

See also:

Lucas Leiroz (October 7, 2026) - Brazil’s runoff: what factors will determine the electoral outcome?

 Raphael Machado (October 6, 2026) - Lula's contradictions finally take their toll.