Showing posts with label S&P 500. Show all posts
Showing posts with label S&P 500. Show all posts

Thursday, February 5, 2026

The Venus-Stats | Jack Gillen

The planet Venus has an eight-year cycle when the Earth and Venus align at the Sun Zodiac degree. [...] The eight-year cycle of Venus has an effect on the Dow Jones Industrial Averages falling in the 70-100 percent accuracy that I call the Venus-line. The Venus-line means having four or more consecutive weekly patterns, and if the pattern is RED we know the trend is up, and if the pattern is GREEN we know the trend is down.
 
 » Each trading week is marked by R for (RED) and G for (GREEN). The GREEN indicates that
the week should end on the down side, and RED indicates that it should end on the up side. «
Tables 4.5–4.7: The Venus Degree Line (2015–2026); Tables 4.9–4.11: The Venus Degree Line (2027–2038).
 
[...] In the above tables you have the Venus-line until the year 2050, and each trading week is marked by the R for (RED) and G for (GREEN). The GREEN indicates that the week should end on the down side, and RED indicates that it should end on the up side. This is taken from the five-days in the week and based on the degree of Venus. Meaning, how many of those days will be up and how many of those days will be down.
 
Quoted from:
Jack Gillen (2002) - Astro-Stats for the New York Stock Exchange. (No online copy found.) 
 
(13×224.701 days=2,921.1 days) nearly equal 8 Earth years (8×365.256 days=2,922.0 days).
 
For 2026, Gillen’s tables (4.5 through 4.7) present a mixed pattern, with approximately 60% of weeks marked RED (bullish) and 40% GREEN (bearish). This suggests a volatile but ultimately positive outlook for the DJIA, with the potential for net gains by year-end.
 
However, given that an 8-year cyclical Venus influence exists, trends in 2026 should be expected to at least roughly mirror those from eight-year offsets, such as 1994, 2002, 2010, or 2018. But does such a premise even hold water? Is it yet another single-cause approach lacking a convincing roadmap? Consult the chart below to find out.
 
DJIA daily closes 1994, 2002, 2010, 2018, and 2026 (normalized prices: Jan 1 = 100).
The gold line tracks 2018; the dashed purple line is the composite average; the thick black one is 2026.
  
See also:

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

2026 US Stock Market Forecast Based on Jack Gillen's Principles

Since the 1960s, Jack Gillen (1930–2017), an American pioneering astro-financial analyst and trader, developed a market-forecasting framework based on astrological statistics derived from over a century of DJIA data. The Gillen methodology is anchored in the NYSE natal chart (May 17, 1792, 8:52 AM, New York), where a Taurus Sun and Cancer Ascendant dictate the market's fundamental sensitivity to lunar, Saturnian, and other planetary cycles. 
 
Table 1: 2026 Key Events, Periods, and Implications.
Saturn's ingress into Pisces allegedly responsible for January 2026 metals crash.
  
His 1979 seminal work, 'The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange,' established the technical framework for planetary aspects, cycles, sensitive degrees, and sector-specific zodiac influences. This was further quantified in 'Astro Stats for the New York Stock Exchange' (2002), where Gillen introduced accuracy-rated "stats" for astrological and astronomical events, and market trends, specifically identifying mutable sign transits as bearish indicators and cardinal transits as signals of structural restriction.
 
Gillen's forecasts relied on planetary cycles: Saturn (29.5 years, restrictions), Jupiter (12 years, expansions), Uranus (explosive volatility), and Mercury retrogrades (confusion, 85% post-direct recovery. Moon transits through mutable signs (Gemini, Virgo, Sagittarius, Pisces) signal downturns, with Virgo most critical. The January effect is a 80% reliable annual indicator, while the year-end rally (December 24–31) also has 80% accuracy for gains. Sensitive degrees for the Sun and Moon trigger daily reversals, and sign transits influence sectors. Panics tie to Saturn in mutable or cardinal signs, with 59–60-year cycles. 
 
Panic cycles identify Saturn’s transits through cardinal or mutable signs as primary volatility windows, particularly when amplified by the 58- to 60-year Jupiter-Saturn alignment cycle. Early 2026’s Saturn in Pisces directly mirrors historical mutable-sign panics, such as the 1907 Pisces-Saturn crash. This setup is triggered by the February 20 Saturn-Neptune conjunction, marking a period of structural disillusionment, and is followed by the July 20 Jupiter-Pluto opposition, a classic signature for systemic inflation or geopolitical conflict.
 
Key Astrological Influences for 2026
■    2026 begins with Saturn in Pisces until February 13, a mutable placement associated with panics and gold price drops, echoing cycles in 1907 and 1966. Saturn's ingress into Aries shifts to cardinal initiative, but its retrograde (July 26–December 10) may delay recoveries. 
■    Jupiter in Cancer until June 30 supports domestic sectors, transitioning to Leo for entertainment and gold expansions. 
■    Uranus ingresses Gemini on April 25, introducing tech volatility. 
■    Neptune's Aries ingress (January 26) and conjunction with Saturn (February 20) foster structural dissolution. 
■    Pluto in Aquarius facilitates reforms via sextile to Saturn (March 28), but opposes Jupiter (July 20), risking overexpansion.
■    Mercury retrogrades introduce confusion: February 26–March 20 (Pisces), June 29–July 23 (Cancer–Leo), October 24–November 13 (Scorpio). 
■    Lunar eclipses in mutable signs (March 3 in Virgo, August 28 in Pisces) amplify downside risks.
■   The January effect, based on early performance, indicates an 80% chance of a positive annual close. From December 31, 2025 (48,063.29) to February 4, 2026 (49,501.30), the DJIA gained 3.0%, supported by Capricorn Sun stats (60.27% higher closes).
Table 2: Sensitive Degrees of the Sun and approximate 2026 Dates.
 
Table 3: Sensitive Degrees of the Moon

Table 4: Zodiac Signs and Affected Products/Industries.

2026 Forecast
Based on Gillen's astrological assumptions, principles, and statistics, the 2026 US stock market is projected to experience a corrective bear phase with a potential 25% drawdown in the DJIA during the first three quarters, targeting levels between 37,000 and 40,000 from the early-year high near 50,000, followed by a recovery in the fourth quarter aiming for 46,000 to 47,000 by year-end. 
 
This sequence aligns with historical patterns of mutable sign transits and eclipses signaling downturns, transitioning to expansive influences later in the year. The forecast, as of February 4, 2026, incorporates the positive January effect (80% accuracy for an upward annual close) but anticipates volatility due to ongoing mutable warnings and retrogrades. The sequence of events unfolds chronologically as follows (see also Table 1):

■    From January 1 to February 13, Saturn's transit in Pisces heightens the risk of market panics and gold price declines, consistent with mutable sign downturns. This period may see initial stability eroded by deceptive trends following Neptune's ingress into Aries on January 26, potentially affecting sectors like energy and military industries. Sensitive Sun degrees in Capricorn (e.g., positive at 6° on December 28, 2025, extending into early January) could provide minor uptrends, but negative Moon degrees in Pisces (9°, 28°) during lunar transits may trigger short-term pullbacks.

■    On February 13, Saturn enters Aries, marking a shift toward structural initiatives, though this is tempered by the annular Solar Eclipse in Aquarius on February 17, which could introduce innovative disruptions in aerospace and electronics. The Saturn-Neptune conjunction on February 20 at 0° Aries is expected to exacerbate economic uncertainty, fostering illusions or dissolutions in market structures. Mercury's retrograde from February 26 to March 20 in Pisces amplifies confusion, with an 85% likelihood of higher closes post-direct on March 20. During this retrograde, sensitive Moon degrees in Pisces (negative at 9°, 28°) may coincide with downside moves.

■    The total Lunar Eclipse on March 3 at 12° Virgo signals critical adjustments in service and health sectors, aligning with Virgo's mutable warning as the most severe for declines. Saturn's sextile to Pluto on March 28 supports controlled financial restructuring, potentially stabilizing after the eclipse. Sensitive Sun degrees in Aries (positive at 4° around March 25 and 11° around April 1) may offer brief uptrends, while negative degrees (18° around April 8, 24° around April 14) could mark reversal points downward. This initiates the broader drawdown phase through March to August, driven by mutable influences.

■    In April, Uranus' ingress into Gemini on April 25 introduces explosive volatility in communications and technology sectors, exacerbating the corrective trend. Sensitive Sun degrees in Taurus (negative at 6° around April 27) may signal early-month weakness.

■    June to July sees Mercury retrograde from June 29 to July 23 across Cancer and Leo, prompting reviews of secure investments amid potential emotional market swings. Jupiter's entry into Leo on June 30 initiates bullish expansions in entertainment and gold, but the opposition to Pluto on July 20 risks speculative overexpansion and power struggles. Saturn's retrograde beginning July 26 through December 10 in Aries delays initiatives, testing resilience. Sensitive Sun degrees in Cancer (negative at 13° around July 4 and 28° around July 23) align with this period's potential highs turning downward.

■    August features the total Solar Eclipse on August 12 at 20° Leo, a major turning point potentially amplifying expansions or crashes, followed by the partial Lunar Eclipse on August 28 at 4° Pisces, heightening deceptive risks in mutable signs. Sensitive Sun degrees in Leo (positive at 6° around July 30, extending influence) and Virgo (negative at 10° around August 24) may indicate volatility peaks.

■    The recovery phase begins in the fourth quarter, with Mercury retrograde from October 24 to November 13 in Scorpio focusing on financial scrutiny, but post-direct recovery often explodes upward. Sensitive Sun degrees in Scorpio (positive at 11° around November 3) support this shift. The year-end rally from December 24 to 31, with 80% accuracy for gains, is bolstered by positive Sun degrees in Capricorn (6° around December 28), leading to the projected close near 46,000–47,000.

Throughout, sensitive degrees of the Sun and Moon, as well as Moon transits from Virgo to Pisces provide short-term strategies (see also HERE), while sector impacts follow sign transits, such as Aries favoring military stocks post-February 13 (see Table 4).

Jack Gillen (2002) - Astro-Stats for the New York Stock Exchange. Real-Time Market Forecast. (No online copy found.)
 
See also:

2026 Moon-Stats | Jack Gillen

The Moon by itself in any particular sign or eclipse doesn’t fit into the 70-100 percent accuracy but there are some patterns that do. They are the Mutable signs of Gemini, Pisces, Sagittarius, and Virgo. These are your four warning signs for the market to move to the down side, and the sign of Virgo is the most critical.
 
 Virgo to Pisces Moon Cycle 2019 - 2026.
 
Virgo to Pisces = Go Long | Pisces to Virgo = Go Short
 
[...] There is a Moon statistic that falls into the 70 - 100 percent group but is closer to the 70 percent group, and that’s the Moon’s transit from Virgo to Pisces. Therefore, if you are looking to go long with a stock it’s best to start during this period [...] If you have a stock you want to short, your best chance would be from the sign of Pisces to Virgo. How you determine this would be from the tables of your exit date going long, and this would be the starting date for going short, and the starting date for going long would be the exit date on the short.

Quoted from:
Jack Gillen (2002) - Astro-Stats for the New York Stock Exchange. 
 
See also: 

2026 Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE | Jack Gillen

for May 17, 1792 (8:52 am LMT) in New York, NY, using Geocentric Tropical coordinates.
  
» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more or less
active for each year, as the Sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date
every year. So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «
 
Quoted from:
 Dates and times calculated for New York (EST/EDT).
 
positive = NYSE should reach a low and turn up.
negative = NYSE should reach a high and turn down.
neutral = expect small range or inside day. 
 
[ In general, however, these dates should be viewed simply as potential short-term market turn-days. ]  
 
S&P 500 (2016 and 2017) versus Gillen’s sensitive degrees of the Sun.
 
S&P 500 Average Daily Performance and %-Probability 
(1928-2024)

See
also: 

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Revised February S&P 500 Forecast | Nicholas D. Savino


Nicholas Savino has revised his February 2026 S&P 500 forecast, inverting the original cycle projection (left chart above). While February 5 (Thu) was previously slated as a peak, recent price action now points toward a low. From this pivot, a rally to a new all-time-high is expected to unfold, extending through February 17 (Tue), followed by choppy, sideways price action through month-end (right chart above).

Thursday, January 29, 2026

2026 Market Forecast: S&P 500, Crude, Notes, Gold, and Bitcoin | Bill Sarubbi

US Stock Market Outlook and Q1 Correction
The equity markets appear to be nearing a significant peak, with a forecasted correction for the S&P 500 expected to intensify during the first week of February. Despite this initial volatility, the year-end target for the S&P remains 10% to 12% higher than current levels around 6,950. 
 
In November, the 15-month midterm election cycle will be the primary rally driver. 
 
2026 Composite Cycle for the S&P 500.

The year is expected to unfold in three phases: a weak first quarter, a sideways trading range through the spring and summer, and a powerful rally in the fourth quarter driven by the historically potent 15-month midterm election cycle.

Long-Term Cycles and Inflationary Pressures
Current economic conditions mirror the 54-year cycle last seen in 1972, characterized by persistent price inflation, social unrest, and rising interest rates. This environment of "excess liquidity" is evidenced by record-breaking prices for collectibles and comic books. Furthermore, the removal of the gold window in 1971 and subsequent monetary acts have removed traditional limits on currency monetization, explaining gold’s ascent toward the $5,000 mark.

Sector Rotation and Technology Moderation
A primary theme for 2026 is the transition of leadership away from the "Magnificent Seven" and toward undervalued sectors. While technology will remain relevant, leadership is shifting to names like Intel and Micron rather than the overextended market leaders. 
 

Capital is expected to flow into healthcare, base materials, and emerging markets, the latter of which are breaking a 15-year relative downtrend against US equities.

Bullish Outlook for Energy and Oil
Oil presents a compelling "witches' brew" of bullish indicators: strong technical support between $50 and $55, extreme bearish sentiment, and favorable seasonal cycles. 
 
 Monthly Crude Oil Cycle.

A rally is anticipated through June, with stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB) showing classic technical breakout patterns. This sector stands to benefit most from the rotation of funds out of high-priced mega-cap tech.

Fixed Income, Gold, and Bitcoin
Fixed income remains unattractive, with the 10-year note facing strong seasonal headwinds in March. 
 
10-Year Notes monthly histogram.
 
Gold.

Gold has exceeded recent objectives but is entering a seasonally weak period through March, with a projected short-term top near February 20. 
 
 Bitcoin.

Conversely, Bitcoin continues to adhere closely to its cyclical data, suggesting a potential rally toward the $110,000 to $115,000 range by April.

 
See also: 
Bill Sarubbi (b. 1949), writing under the pen name Bill Meridian, is an American financial strategist, author, and software developer who pioneered the integration of mundane astrology into institutional investment. After earning both a BS in Banking and an MBA in Corporate Finance from New York University in 1972, he launched a dual career on Wall Street while beginning his formal astrological studies. Sarubbi transformed the field in 1983 by designing AstroAnalyst, the first software to apply computer processing to financial astrology. His technical innovations—including efficiency tests and composite cycles—remain foundational to modern platforms such as Timing Solution. Parallel to his financial pursuits, he spent seven years in New York City training as a bioenergetic therapist under Dr. John Pierrakos. From 1990 to 2004, Sarubbi was based in Abu Dhabi (UAE), where he served as a Technology Fund Manager and Strategist for the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA). During his tenure at the sovereign wealth fund, he also sat on its Currency Hedging Committee. Throughout this period, he maintained his pen identity as "Bill Meridian," advising legendary trader Frankie Joe and authoring the mundane and stocks column for Dell Horoscope for 30 years. A certified expert in Uranian and Vibrational Astrology, Sarubbi has authored several definitive texts, including 'Planetary Stock Trading' and 'The Predictive Power of Eclipse Paths.' Since 2000, he has operated Cycles Research Investments from Vienna, Austria, providing market advisory and fund management services that blend rigorous economic cycle analysis with astrological forecasting.

Tuesday, January 27, 2026

February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

According to the specific midterm data (1950–2022) indicated by the dotted lines on the chart below, the market typically begins with weakness, hitting an initial seasonal low on February 5 (Thu) (Trading Day 4) before attempting a choppy recovery.
 
 
This leads to a secondary dip around February 9 (Mon) just before a historical mid-month surge. This peak typically culminates on February 18 (Wed) (Presidents' Day February 16 (Mon), OpEx February 20 (Fri)). 
 
Following this peak, the "February Reversal" takes hold. In midterm years, the market typically enters a sideways trend, struggling to sustain gains. Conversely, the 21-year average shows a steadier decline that carries the market toward its final monthly low on February 27 (Fri).
 
Reference: 
  
DJIA eyes 9-month win streak: Historically, 2-month
follow-up gains are 100% certain, averaging +5.34%
 

Unraveling the Hurst Cycles Harmony of the US Stock Market | David Hickson

A Hurst cycles analysis essentially functions as a fairly complex puzzle in which every cycle must fit precisely into place, primarily because the cycle troughs must be synchronized whenever possible. If we were to position Hurst’s classic 9-year nominal cycle trough in 2020, we would produce a rather unbalanced cyclical analysis. Consequently, the 2018 placement is, in my opinion, a much more appropriate position for this nine-year cycle trough. We have had very regular nine-year cycles beating from the trough in 1998, continuing through the 2009 trough to the 2018 trough. Following this progression, the next nine-year cycle trough is expected to occur in approximately 2027.

S&P 500 (monthly candles), 1997-2039: 9-year (red) and 54-month (orange) cycles.
 
The classic 9-year model, tracking a recent average 10.1-year wavelength, identifies major troughs in 2002, 2009, and 2018; it dismisses the deeper March 2020 low as Fundamental Interaction to preserve the model's harmonic ratios. Currently, this model places the market in the bearish third of three 18-month cycles following an October 2022 trough, forecasting a significant decline into a synchronized 9-year nest of lows by mid-2027.
 
S&P 500 (daily candles), November 2025 to September 2026: The orange dashed 
Composite Model Line (CML) is a summation of all underlying cycles of the 9-year model:
Current nominal 20-week cycle = 16.9 weeks; 80-day cycle = 57 days; 40-day cycle = 31 days; 20-day cycle = 15.4 days. 

Conversely, the 7-year model utilizes a 14-year/7-year rhythm visible in the 2002, 2009, 2016, and 2022 troughs. By phasing the October 2022 low as a major 14-year trough, this model explains recent persistent strength and suggests the market is in the first of three 18-month cycles, implying a more bullish structural backdrop. Despite these long-term differences, both models converge on a near-term projection: an early 2026 peak followed by a corrective move into an 18-month cycle trough around June or July 2026. 
 
S&P 500 (daily candles), April 2025 to September 2026: The orange dashed Composite 
Model Line (CML) is a summation of all underlying cycles of the 7-year model:
Current nominal 20-week cycle = 13.6 weeks; 80-day cycle = 56.5 days; 40-day cycle = 28 days; 20-day cycle = 13.8 days. 

S&P 500 (daily candles), December 2025 to February 2026, and orange dashed 7-year model CML.
 
 Nominal 9-Year Cycle vs Actual 7-Year Cycle.
 
Both models recognize a 40-week cycle trough on November 21, 2025, and the 80-day cycle trough on January 21. A peak is expected in late-Q1 early-Q2, to be followed by a significant mid-year correction into June-July.
 
 
See also:

Saturday, January 10, 2026

2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500 | Namzes

Following the November 21 (Fri) 40-week cycle low and the December 19 (Fri) 40-day cycle higher-low confirmation, the S&P 500 is now in a new 40-week cycle uptrend. Though the next 40-day cycle pullback is expected in late January, the rising 20-week cycle should drive the S&P 500 higher toward around the February 20 (Fri) option expiration.

Q1 rally, mid-year correction, July and October windows for yearly low, rally in Q4. 
 
Building on prior calls like the accurate November 2025 low, the chart above illustrates July 2026 as an ideal nested low for multiple cycles (20-week, 40-week, possibly 18-month and 3.5-year or 42-month).

 
 [ Note: A November 21, 2025, 40-week cycle low would render prior TPR Hurst cycle analyses
and longer-term phasing (e.g., HERE, HERE, and HERE) largely incorrect and obsolete. ]
 
  
» The 21 November low was the 40-week trough. « 
Christopher Grafton, January 9, 2026.

See also: