Showing posts with label S&P 500. Show all posts
Showing posts with label S&P 500. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

March Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Beginning on March 2 (Mon) (Trading Day 1), the US stock market historically follows two distinct paths. Over the recent 21-year period (solid lines in the chart below), March tends to open positively with modest gains through March 4 (Wed) (TD 3) before weakness leads to a sharp dip around March 9 (Mon) (TD 6). While indices typically move higher from March 16 (Mon) (TD 11), the NASDAQ and S&P 500 usually lead this recovery into the final close on March 31 (Tue) (TD 22).
 
March generally finishes positive across all major indices.
  
In contrast, Midterm Election years since 1950 (dotted lines) show significantly greater historical strength, potentially as a rebound from a typically tepid February. This cycle produces a front-loaded rally where R2K small caps flip from laggards to leaders, often outpacing S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ. Strength generally persists until the Spring Equinox, reaching a seasonal peak on March 20 (Fri) (TD 15). After this point, indices tend to lose momentum and close out the month with choppy trading. Despite these differing mid-month trajectories, March has a 64% win rate, generally finishing positive across all indices.
 
Reference:
 
 
  

Sunday, February 22, 2026

S&P 500 Hurst Analysis: Projection into Mid-March 20-Week Cycle Low

The current 40-week cycle began at the November 21, 2025 trough. Its primary components are two 20-week cycles, which averaged 16.9 weeks (118 days = Delta cycle) over recent iterations. 
 
 SPY (daily candles), September 2025 to May 2026.

The low of the first 20-week cycle is expected to occur between March 17 and March 19 (Tue–Thu).
 

 10-day cycle (7.6 days) low = Feb 24 (Tue)
 20-day cycle (15.4 days) low = Mar 3 (Tue)
 40-day cycle (31 days) low = Mar 17 (Tue)
 80-day cycle (57 days) low = Mar 18 (Wed)
 20-week cycle (118 days) low = Mar 19 (Thu)
 
The 40-week cycle (and 18-month cycle) trough is projected into late July (±).
 

Thursday, February 19, 2026

2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa | Larry Williams

Crude Oil
Larry Williams identifies a setup for potential decline, noting that commercials (via Commitments of Traders (COT) Report red line in the chart below) have ceased aggressive buying and are exiting the market, with the line declining after marking a recent bottom. 
 

The public (green line) has become heavy buyers, signaling vulnerability. His proprietary valuation indicator (gold line, based on Crude-Gold Ratio) shows overvaluation, similar to prior pullbacks. As a conditional trader, he views this as a setup but requires trend change confirmation. 
 
 Downward setup via overvaluation and commercial selling; imminent cyclical
downturn, low in March/June needing trend confirmation for shorts.
 
Cyclically (weekly charts), a downturn is imminent, with a low expected in about three months (around March or June), historically good for longs. He advises watching for sell signals in energy markets, emphasizing cycles for bias and timing.

Natural Gas
Williams was seeking a short-term buy opportunity but canceled orders due to lack of upward movement today, anticipating a possible bounce. He stresses evaluating the COT report to determine if commercials or the public are buying, cross-referenced with open interest for directional insight. While acknowledging a seasonal pattern, he deems it less significant than current buyer/seller dynamics via the COT.

Gold
Williams admits a prior bad call, expecting a cyclical high aligned with Bitcoin's peak, but Gold held firm. Currently, commercials (COT red line) are unusually buying the decline at high levels, a position not typical and reminiscent of past buy opportunities. He notes recent shorts in Silver and Copper have shifted.
 
Gold bullish from commercial decline-buys and March cycles; 
Silver similar with rally soon, upside late Feb/March on trend change.
 
Cyclically, short-term (red) and longer-term (blue) cycles converge in March, establishing a substantive buy point without implying a drop to chart lows. This timeframe warrants bullish attention, pending trend change.

Silver
Williams observes that Silver exhibits strong similarities to Gold, historically regarded as the "poor man's gold" but now akin to the "expensive man's gold." It follows a comparable cyclical pattern, indicating the onset of a rally within the ensuing couple of weeks from the time of discussion. Aligning with his year-end forecast, he anticipated initial downward pressure, followed by an upward shift around late February or early March. He emphasizes restraint in entry, requiring confirmation of an upside trend change—such as a trend line breakout or moving average signal—within that timeframe to qualify the trade.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Disparity in Advance/Decline, and Why Dow is Stronger
Williams affirms a bull market persisting through 2025 into mid-2027, dismissing pessimists based on repeated past errors. The advance-decline line (net cumulative advances vs. declines) is at new highs while stocks are not—an anomaly he has rarely seen, historically followed by higher prices, providing a fundamental bullish rationale. 
 
 
Bull to mid-2027 via advance-decline highs; Dow stronger than

S&P on value focus, mid-March cyclical buy/rally.

Comparing charts below: Dow Jones futures show a higher low and greater strength than S&P E-minis, attributed to fewer "hot stocks" like the Magnificent Seven in the Dow, which suffered hits. 
 

The Dow better represents quality and value, with funds shifting there for protection over speculation. As a trader, Williams is long Dow contracts, not S&P, due to Dow's outperformance. 

Cocoa
Williams sees a buy setup, though not yet long, awaiting trend change. Commercials (top pane red line) are adding positions amid declining total open interest (black line)—indicating others exit, a rare bullish "bubble up." Valuation (gold line, Cocoa-Gold Ratio) shows undervaluation, contrasting prior overvalued tops. 
 
 
Rally from commercial "bubble up" buys and undervaluation; 
short-term immediate, major in June/July with trend entry patience.
 
Cyclically, short-term (red) suggests immediate rally start; longer-term (blue) aligns with short-term around June/July for ideal entry and bigger move.
 
See also:

Thursday, February 12, 2026

S&P 500: Hurst 10-Day Cycle Low Set to Hit Friday's CPI News Release

S&P 500 (3 hour candles): 10-Day cycle (currently ≈7.6 days) low due Friday, February 13 (CPI News Release).
 

50% DJIA Gain Possible from 2026 Low to 2027 High | Jeff Hirsch

Historical data going back to 1914 shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has typically fallen about 20% from its peak in the year following a presidential election to its trough during the subsequent midterm year. Weakness has been most persistent in Q2 and Q3 of Midterm years. Regardless of the precise level reached, the advance that normally follows is a very attractive entry point for position traders (see tab and chart below).

% Change in DJIA between Midterm year Low and High of following year, 1914-2023.

Within the Four-Year Presidential Cycle, the most favorable phase begins late in the Midterm year: The strongest consecutive two quarters historically run from Q4 of the Midterm year into the Q1 of the Pre-Election year, delivering average gains of 46.3% for the Dow.
 
  S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

Q2 of the Pre-Election year is also notably strong—ranking as the third-best quarter of the 
Four-Year Presidential Cycle—effectively extending this high-performance window to three quarters, from Midterm Q4 2026 through Pre-Election Q2 2027. 
 
Reference:
 
Q4 2026: Sweet Spot of the 4-Year Presidential Cycle.
Assuming the future will be but an averaged past (1973-2026).   

See also:

Thursday, February 5, 2026

The Venus-Stats | Jack Gillen

The planet Venus has an eight-year cycle when the Earth and Venus align at the Sun Zodiac degree. [...] The eight-year cycle of Venus has an effect on the Dow Jones Industrial Averages falling in the 70-100 percent accuracy that I call the Venus-line. The Venus-line means having four or more consecutive weekly patterns, and if the pattern is RED we know the trend is up, and if the pattern is GREEN we know the trend is down.
 
 » Each trading week is marked by R for (RED) and G for (GREEN). The GREEN indicates that
the week should end on the down side, and RED indicates that it should end on the up side. «
Tables 4.5–4.7: The Venus Degree Line (2015–2026); Tables 4.9–4.11: The Venus Degree Line (2027–2038).
 
[...] In the above tables you have the Venus-line until the year 2050, and each trading week is marked by the R for (RED) and G for (GREEN). The GREEN indicates that the week should end on the down side, and RED indicates that it should end on the up side. This is taken from the five-days in the week and based on the degree of Venus. Meaning, how many of those days will be up and how many of those days will be down.
 
Quoted from:
Jack Gillen (2002) - Astro-Stats for the New York Stock Exchange. (No online copy found.) 
 
(13×224.701 days=2,921.1 days) nearly equal 8 Earth years (8×365.256 days=2,922.0 days).
 
For 2026, Gillen’s tables (4.5 through 4.7) present a mixed pattern, with approximately 60% of weeks marked RED (bullish) and 40% GREEN (bearish). This suggests a volatile but ultimately positive outlook for the DJIA, with the potential for net gains by year-end.
 
However, given that an 8-year cyclical Venus influence exists, trends in 2026 should be expected to at least roughly mirror those from eight-year offsets, such as 2010, or 2018. But does such a premise even hold water? Is it yet another single-cause approach lacking a convincing roadmap? Consult the chart below to find out.
 
DJIA daily closes 1994, 2002, 2010, 2018, and 2026 (normalized prices: Jan 1 = 100).
The gold line tracks 2018; the dashed purple line is the composite average; the thick black one is 2026.
  
See also:
 

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

2026 US Stock Market Forecast Based on Jack Gillen's Principles

Since the 1960s, Jack Gillen (1930–2017), an American pioneering astro-financial analyst and trader, developed a market-forecasting framework based on astrological statistics derived from over a century of DJIA data. The Gillen methodology is anchored in the NYSE natal chart (May 17, 1792, 8:52 AM, New York), where a Taurus Sun and Cancer Ascendant dictate the market's fundamental sensitivity to lunar, Saturnian, and other planetary cycles. 
 
Table 1: 2026 Key Events, Periods, and Implications.
Saturn's ingress into Pisces allegedly responsible for January 2026 metals crash.
  
His 1979 seminal work, 'The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange,' established the technical framework for planetary aspects, cycles, sensitive degrees, and sector-specific zodiac influences. This was further quantified in 'Astro Stats for the New York Stock Exchange' (2002), where Gillen introduced accuracy-rated "stats" for astrological and astronomical events, and market trends, specifically identifying mutable sign transits as bearish indicators and cardinal transits as signals of structural restriction.
 
Gillen's forecasts relied on planetary cycles: Saturn (29.5 years, restrictions), Jupiter (12 years, expansions), Uranus (explosive volatility), and Mercury retrogrades (confusion, 85% post-direct recovery. Moon transits through mutable signs (Gemini, Virgo, Sagittarius, Pisces) signal downturns, with Virgo most critical. The January effect is a 80% reliable annual indicator, while the year-end rally (December 24–31) also has 80% accuracy for gains. Sensitive degrees for the Sun and Moon trigger daily reversals, and sign transits influence sectors. Panics tie to Saturn in mutable or cardinal signs, with 59–60-year cycles. 
 
Panic cycles identify Saturn’s transits through cardinal or mutable signs as primary volatility windows, particularly when amplified by the 58- to 60-year Jupiter-Saturn alignment cycle. Early 2026’s Saturn in Pisces directly mirrors historical mutable-sign panics, such as the 1907 Pisces-Saturn crash. This setup is triggered by the February 20 Saturn-Neptune conjunction, marking a period of structural disillusionment, and is followed by the July 20 Jupiter-Pluto opposition, a classic signature for systemic inflation or geopolitical conflict.
 
Key Astrological Influences for 2026
■    2026 begins with Saturn in Pisces until February 13, a mutable placement associated with panics and gold price drops, echoing cycles in 1907 and 1966. Saturn's ingress into Aries shifts to cardinal initiative, but its retrograde (July 26–December 10) may delay recoveries. 
■    Jupiter in Cancer until June 30 supports domestic sectors, transitioning to Leo for entertainment and gold expansions. 
■    Uranus ingresses Gemini on April 25, introducing tech volatility. 
■    Neptune's Aries ingress (January 26) and conjunction with Saturn (February 20) foster structural dissolution. 
■    Pluto in Aquarius facilitates reforms via sextile to Saturn (March 28), but opposes Jupiter (July 20), risking overexpansion.
■    Mercury retrogrades introduce confusion: February 26–March 20 (Pisces), June 29–July 23 (Cancer–Leo), October 24–November 13 (Scorpio). 
■    Lunar eclipses in mutable signs (March 3 in Virgo, August 28 in Pisces) amplify downside risks.
■   The January effect, based on early performance, indicates an 80% chance of a positive annual close. From December 31, 2025 (48,063.29) to February 4, 2026 (49,501.30), the DJIA gained 3.0%, supported by Capricorn Sun stats (60.27% higher closes).
Table 2: Sensitive Degrees of the Sun and approximate 2026 Dates.
 
Table 3: Sensitive Degrees of the Moon

Table 4: Zodiac Signs and Affected Products/Industries.

2026 Forecast
Based on Gillen's astrological assumptions, principles, and statistics, the 2026 US stock market is projected to experience a corrective bear phase with a potential 25% drawdown in the DJIA during the first three quarters, targeting levels between 37,000 and 40,000 from the early-year high near 50,000, followed by a recovery in the fourth quarter aiming for 46,000 to 47,000 by year-end. 
 
This sequence aligns with historical patterns of mutable sign transits and eclipses signaling downturns, transitioning to expansive influences later in the year. The forecast, as of February 4, 2026, incorporates the positive January effect (80% accuracy for an upward annual close) but anticipates volatility due to ongoing mutable warnings and retrogrades. The sequence of events unfolds chronologically as follows (see also Table 1):

■    From January 1 to February 13, Saturn's transit in Pisces heightens the risk of market panics and gold price declines, consistent with mutable sign downturns. This period may see initial stability eroded by deceptive trends following Neptune's ingress into Aries on January 26, potentially affecting sectors like energy and military industries. Sensitive Sun degrees in Capricorn (e.g., positive at 6° on December 28, 2025, extending into early January) could provide minor uptrends, but negative Moon degrees in Pisces (9°, 28°) during lunar transits may trigger short-term pullbacks.

■    On February 13, Saturn enters Aries, marking a shift toward structural initiatives, though this is tempered by the annular Solar Eclipse in Aquarius on February 17, which could introduce innovative disruptions in aerospace and electronics. The Saturn-Neptune conjunction on February 20 at 0° Aries is expected to exacerbate economic uncertainty, fostering illusions or dissolutions in market structures. Mercury's retrograde from February 26 to March 20 in Pisces amplifies confusion, with an 85% likelihood of higher closes post-direct on March 20. During this retrograde, sensitive Moon degrees in Pisces (negative at 9°, 28°) may coincide with downside moves.

■    The total Lunar Eclipse on March 3 at 12° Virgo signals critical adjustments in service and health sectors, aligning with Virgo's mutable warning as the most severe for declines. Saturn's sextile to Pluto on March 28 supports controlled financial restructuring, potentially stabilizing after the eclipse. Sensitive Sun degrees in Aries (positive at 4° around March 25 and 11° around April 1) may offer brief uptrends, while negative degrees (18° around April 8, 24° around April 14) could mark reversal points downward. This initiates the broader drawdown phase through March to August, driven by mutable influences.

■    In April, Uranus' ingress into Gemini on April 25 introduces explosive volatility in communications and technology sectors, exacerbating the corrective trend. Sensitive Sun degrees in Taurus (negative at 6° around April 27) may signal early-month weakness.

■    June to July sees Mercury retrograde from June 29 to July 23 across Cancer and Leo, prompting reviews of secure investments amid potential emotional market swings. Jupiter's entry into Leo on June 30 initiates bullish expansions in entertainment and gold, but the opposition to Pluto on July 20 risks speculative overexpansion and power struggles. Saturn's retrograde beginning July 26 through December 10 in Aries delays initiatives, testing resilience. Sensitive Sun degrees in Cancer (negative at 13° around July 4 and 28° around July 23) align with this period's potential highs turning downward.

■    August features the total Solar Eclipse on August 12 at 20° Leo, a major turning point potentially amplifying expansions or crashes, followed by the partial Lunar Eclipse on August 28 at 4° Pisces, heightening deceptive risks in mutable signs. Sensitive Sun degrees in Leo (positive at 6° around July 30, extending influence) and Virgo (negative at 10° around August 24) may indicate volatility peaks.

■    The recovery phase begins in the fourth quarter, with Mercury retrograde from October 24 to November 13 in Scorpio focusing on financial scrutiny, but post-direct recovery often explodes upward. Sensitive Sun degrees in Scorpio (positive at 11° around November 3) support this shift. The year-end rally from December 24 to 31, with 80% accuracy for gains, is bolstered by positive Sun degrees in Capricorn (6° around December 28), leading to the projected close near 46,000–47,000.

Throughout, sensitive degrees of the Sun and Moon, as well as Moon transits from Virgo to Pisces provide short-term strategies (see also HERE), while sector impacts follow sign transits, such as Aries favoring military stocks post-February 13 (see Table 4).

Jack Gillen (2002) - Astro-Stats for the New York Stock Exchange. Real-Time Market Forecast. (No online copy found.)
 
See also:

2026 Moon-Stats | Jack Gillen

The Moon by itself in any particular sign or eclipse doesn’t fit into the 70-100 percent accuracy but there are some patterns that do. They are the Mutable signs of Gemini, Pisces, Sagittarius, and Virgo. These are your four warning signs for the market to move to the down side, and the sign of Virgo is the most critical.
 
 Virgo to Pisces Moon Cycle 2019 - 2026.
 
Virgo to Pisces = Go Long | Pisces to Virgo = Go Short
 
[...] There is a Moon statistic that falls into the 70 - 100 percent group but is closer to the 70 percent group, and that’s the Moon’s transit from Virgo to Pisces. Therefore, if you are looking to go long with a stock it’s best to start during this period [...] If you have a stock you want to short, your best chance would be from the sign of Pisces to Virgo. How you determine this would be from the tables of your exit date going long, and this would be the starting date for going short, and the starting date for going long would be the exit date on the short.

Quoted from:
Jack Gillen (2002) - Astro-Stats for the New York Stock Exchange. 
 
See also: 

2026 Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE | Jack Gillen

for May 17, 1792 (8:52 am LMT) in New York, NY, using Geocentric Tropical coordinates.
  
» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more or less
active for each year, as the Sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date
every year. So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «
 
Quoted from:
 Dates and times calculated for New York (EST/EDT).
 
positive = NYSE should reach a low and turn up.
negative = NYSE should reach a high and turn down.
neutral = expect small range or inside day. 
 
[ In general, however, these dates should be viewed simply as potential short-term market turn-days. ]  
 
S&P 500 (2016 and 2017) versus Gillen’s sensitive degrees of the Sun.
 
S&P 500 Average Daily Performance and %-Probability 
(1928-2024)

See
also: