Showing posts with label S&P 500. Show all posts
Showing posts with label S&P 500. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Bullish Weekly Price Action in US Stock Indices & Stats | Guilherme Tavares

From a price action perspective, the latest weekly close was quite bullish. Since the 70s, there have been few instances when the SPX reclaimed its 50-week MA within just 1 week after losing it, having previously been in an upward trend.


Average return 5 weeks later: 2.95%, positive 83% of the time.

 
 NYA, SPY, ES, S&P 500, NQ, YM (weekly candles): 
Weekly Pivots and Retracement Levels.
 
Wednesday, March 26: Continuation or Reversal?
 
Frank Ochoa (March 25, 2025) - Pre-Market Video:
Last Week Compression. This Week Bullish Expansion?
(video)


 Oppenheimer: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Trajectory (2020-2025): 
Buy March 23. From April high sideways-to-down into mid May low.

BoA: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Pattern (2015-2025): 
"Buy April Dip for May Rip."
 
Jeff Hirsch: April is the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and
fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971. Post-election year April performance is just as good.
 
Support is now 5800
 
Tom Pizzuti (March 25, 2025: "I’m not wholly certain that the wave iii low was set on
March 13th. and thus, open to a new low to complete iii. Of course, I could be wrong."
 
Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.
 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%

Sunday, March 23, 2025

Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2

 S&P 500 (daily bars) - Elliott Wave projection with a final retracement into the end of March, 
followed by a decline into mid-May, below the August 2024 low.

S&P 500 is ready for the next, and final leg up. With price confirming a bullish WXY model at Friday's 5,603 low, I am expecting one more leg up under the 2nd wave targeting 5,750-5,825 to set up for the ultra bearish 3/4/5 wave sequence.

S&P 500 (3-day bars) - Elliott Wave count projecting a decline into late Q1 2026, 
below the October 2023 low.
 
The 16-year rally ended at the 6,147 high with a bearish ending diagonal formation. We're now in the early stages of a catastrophic decline, and price is expected to break this 6-month range escalating much lower. Although I mirrored the path of the 2007-09 crash, this week's rally could easily be the last chance to sell before a 40-60% decline. 


Ref
erence:
Trigger Trades, March 22 & 23, 2025.
 
 
 
2025 Roadmap for the S&P 500 based on Spectrum Cycle Analysis,
with the ideal Q1 low being March 28, 2025, which will set up the final leg up. 
 
S&P 500 projection for 2025 (timing, not magnitude) with seasonally strong windows in the bottom panel.
 
 

 80 Day Low in mid March, and 20 Week Low in mid May.
 
S&P 500 Index (daily bars) vs 56 Year Cycle.

Tuesday, March 11, 2025

S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle

 Current 18-Month Cycle in the S&P 500 (weekly bars, October 2023 to March 2025) and retracement levels.
 
The current 18-month cycle began in October 2023 and is expected to bottom between April and June 2025, likely falling below the August 2024 low and the 50% retracement level. J.M. Hurst's nominal 18-month cycle has an average wavelength of 17.93 months, or 77.98 weeks, or 545 calendar days, which can contract and expand significantly (see table and Hurst chart below). The weekly pattern for March appears to be the X-AMD version, meaning this week should be the month's (re-)accumulation phase (while Martin Armstrong alerted to a "panic cycle").
 
In his latest update, David Hickson expects the current 18-Month Cycle to bottom around May-June, and the current 80-Day Cycle this or next week (CPI, Quad Witching, FOMC Statement; see Hurst chart below). Lately, shorter Hurst cycles in the dollar-priced S&P 500 have been distorted by the significant changes in the EUR/USD valuation.
 
 

Tuesday, February 4, 2025

The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics

Excluding the specifics of the decennial and presidential cycles, the average annual cycle of the S&P 500 since 2004 reveals five consistent seasonal periods, three of which are suitable for high-probability swing trades (90%+):
 
 S&P 500 average annual cycle (2014-2024).
Since the S&P rises 70% of the time, bearish trends are less consistent than bullish ones.

# 1: Mid-February to Late-March Decline: Price action shows an important top between February 14 and 15, followed by a bearish trend lasting into March 20. 
 
 Bearish from February 14-15 High to March 20 Low (2004-2023).
Average move lower: -2.35% (during 12 out of 20 years, down = 60%).
[ ¡ stats in tab referring to February 15 to March 1 (not March 20) - typo, error ?]

# 2: Late-March Rebound: Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has risen 18 times between March 23 and April 27.
 
 Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023).
Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

# 3: July Rally: Since 2009, the S&P 500 has always risen between June 27 and July 25. Not most years. Every single year.
 
 Bullish from June 29 Low to July 25 High (2009-2023).
Average move higher: +4.27% (during 15 out of 15 years, up = 100%).
 
# 4: September Chop: Lack of clear bullish or bearish trends; tentatively sideways to down.
 
September chop between September 1 High to September 30 Low (2009-2023).
Average move higher: +2.77%. Average move lower: -2.63% (during 8 out of 15 years, down = 53%).

# 5
: November Rally:  S&P 500 consistently rising since 2004 and averaging a 4.88% gain.

Bullish from October 25 Low to November 30 High (2004-2023)
Average move higher: +4.88% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

Reference:
 
 S&P 500 Seasonality (2000-2025).
 
February averaged 0.1% gain over the past 
five decades, with positive results at 56%.
 
Med
ian Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs
as a % of total Assets Under Management (1996-January 2025).

Monday, January 13, 2025

Hurst Cycles Forecast Bearish Q1 for S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

The first quarter of 2025 is expected to be bearish for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Following the 40-day cycle trough observed in early December, the S&P 500 is expected to form a 80-day cycle trough around mid-January, i.e., this week.
 
 S&P 500 down into late March or early April.

A significant cycle trough in the first few months of 2025 is anticipated, likely around March or April. The price action as it exits the 80-day cycle trough will be crucial in determining the strength of the recovery or the continuation of the bearish trend.

 NASDAQ down into May.

The NASDAQ's 20-week cycle trough was formed in mid-December, and a significant 18-month cycle trough is expected around May 2025. A weak bounce from this week's low would indicate further bearish movement into May.