10-Day Cycle Expected to Bottom on Tuesday, April 8, Around 8:30 a.m.

Bank of America technician Paul Ciana notes that while April has historically been a strong month, "over the last ten years, the SPX trended down in April and bounced back in May," but week 2 of April has been up 72% of the time.

 

 BoA Paul Ciana: Week 2 of April up 72% of the time.

 

S&P 500 (30-Minute Bars).

Hurst's nominal 10-Day Cycle points to a low on Tuesday, April 8 around 8:30 a.m.

Week 3 of the 3-Week Cycle (click HERE).

SPY (Monthly Bars).

42-Month Kitchin Cycle, 18-Month Cycle, Premium-Discount Levels, and Buy Zone. 

Please note, David Hickson expects the current 18-Month Cycle to bottom around May-June;

three monthly pushes from the breakout to the downside (click HERE).

 

J.M. Hurst's Nominal Cycles.

 

VIX (Daily Bars). 

 

S&P 500 vs CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio (Daily Bars EOD).

 CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear.

 

S&P 500 vs CNN Fear & Greed Index:

April 4, 2025 @ 4.27 = lowest since May 11, 2022 @ 4.03. 

 

 Bloomberg: Nasdaq 100 dropped 20% and is now in a Bear Market.

 

BoA Michael Hartnett: S&P 500 buying levels now at 4,800-5,000. 

 

Steve Miller (April 4, 2025) - Stock Market Cycles Analysis (SPX, NDX, VIX, TNX).

S&P 500 vs Blood Indicator (= US 03-Month Treasury Bill / High Yield Spread)

 

  » Stop trying to buy the dips. The S&P 500 still has 1500-2000+
points of downside left over the next 2-3 years. «
Trigger Trades, April 4, 2025.

 

See also:

 Jason A. Jankovsky (September 25, 2023) - The Importance of Buy/Sell 50% Retracements.

Bullish Weekly Price Action in US Stock Indices & Stats | Guilherme Tavares

From a price action perspective, the latest weekly close was quite bullish. Since the 70s, there have been few instances when the SPX reclaimed its 50-week MA within just 1 week after losing it, having previously been in an upward trend.

Average return 5 weeks later: 2.95%, positive 83% of the time.

Guilherme Tavares, March 25, 2025.

 

 NYA, SPY, ES, S&P 500, NQ, YM (weekly candles): 

Weekly Pivots and Retracement Levels.

 

Wednesday, March 26: Continuation or Reversal?

 

Frank Ochoa (March 25, 2025) - Pre-Market Video:
Last Week Compression. This Week Bullish Expansion? (video)

 Oppenheimer: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Trajectory (2020-2025): 

Buy March 23. From April high sideways-to-down into mid May low.

BoA: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Pattern (2015-2025): 

"Buy April Dip for May Rip."

 

Jeff Hirsch: April is the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and
fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971. Post-election year April performance is just as good.

 

Carl Futia : June S&P E-mini futures headed for new bull market highs. 

Support is now 5800. 

 

Tom Pizzuti (March 25, 2025: "I’m not wholly certain that the wave iii low was set on

March 13th. and thus, open to a new low to complete iii. Of course, I could be wrong."

 

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%. 

See also:
TPR (March 23, 2025) - Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2.

Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2

 S&P 500 (daily bars) - Elliott Wave projection with a final retracement into the end of March, 

followed by a decline into mid-May, below the August 2024 low.

S&P 500 is ready for the next, and final leg up. With price confirming a bullish WXY model at Friday's 5,603 low, I am expecting one more leg up under the 2nd wave targeting 5,750-5,825 to set up for the ultra bearish 3/4/5 wave sequence.

S&P 500 (3-day bars) - Elliott Wave count projecting a decline into late Q1 2026, 

below the October 2023 low.

 

The 16-year rally ended at the 6,147 high with a bearish ending diagonal formation. We're now in the early stages of a catastrophic decline, and price is expected to break this 6-month range escalating much lower. Although I mirrored the path of the 2007-09 crash, this week's rally could easily be the last chance to sell before a 40-60% decline. 

Reference:

Trigger Trades, March 22 & 23, 2025.

 

 

Late-March Rebound: Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has risen 18 times between March 23 and April 27.
Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023). Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

 

2025 Roadmap for the S&P 500 based on Spectrum Cycle Analysis,

with the ideal Q1 low being March 28, 2025, which will set up the final leg up. 

Namzes on X, January 6, 2025.

 

S&P 500 projection for 2025 (timing, not magnitude) with seasonally strong windows in the bottom panel.

Namzes on X, January 6, 2025.

 

Weekly S&P 500 with nominal 180 weeks / 41-Month Kitchin Cycle topping | October 23, 2024

 

Weekly Preview for March 24-28: Short term cycles - early next week 20d low then higher,
Krasi, March 22, 2025.

 80 Day Low in mid March, and 20 Week Low in mid May.

David Hickson (March 10, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update.

 

S&P 500 Index (daily bars) vs 56 Year Cycle.

2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

See also:

¡¡ David Hickson (March 24, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update: Targets and Levels to Watch. (video) !!

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 21, 2025) - End of Q1 – Prone to Volatility and Weakness since 1990.

TPR (March 11, 2025) - S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle.

  Lars von Thienen (December 8, 2024) - The Cliff - Don't Be a Lemming. 

Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.

 TPR (December 10, 2024) - 2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

S&P 500 Retracement Levels for the Week of March 17-21 | Low of 2025 In?

S&P 500 (daily bars) - March 14: daily reversal (Total Lunar Eclipse); close above EMA (5). After worst start of year “5” in history, March 13 possible low of 2025? Hurst cycles suggest, not yet. Average seasonality now positive; the more specific one still isn't. Mid April high, early May low possible. Next week up into Tuesday or FOMC likely. Immediate targets: November low, last week's open, high, and 0.382 level. Week of March 17-21 = Manipulation-Phase in the weekly X-AMD pattern for March. 

 

March 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch.

 

Larry Williams (March 15, 2025) - Why the Market Is Ready to Rally. (video)

 

» There are only two ways a short-term high or low is broken. «

Larry Williams,  2000.

 

See also:

TPR (March 11, 2025) - S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle.

TPR (March 7, 2025) - The Three Week Cycle, Quarterly Shift, and IPDA Data Ranges.
orderbloque (2024) - Market Logic is Based on Liquidity, Volume, and Inefficiency.

S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle

 Current 18-Month Cycle in the S&P 500 (weekly bars, October 2023 to March 2025) and retracement levels.

 

The current 18-month cycle began in October 2023 and is expected to bottom between April and June 2025, likely falling below the August 2024 low and the 50% retracement level. J.M. Hurst's nominal 18-month cycle has an average wavelength of 17.93 months, or 77.98 weeks, or 545 calendar days, which can contract and expand significantly (see table and Hurst chart below). The weekly pattern for March appears to be the X-AMD version, meaning this week should be the month's (re-)accumulation phase (while Martin Armstrong alerted to a "panic cycle").

 

In his latest update, David Hickson expects the current 18-Month Cycle to bottom around May-June, and the current 80-Day Cycle this or next week (CPI, Quad Witching, FOMC Statement; see Hurst chart below). Lately, shorter Hurst cycles in the dollar-priced S&P 500 have been distorted by the significant changes in the EUR/USD valuation.

 

 Note: Hurst's average wavelengths can contract and expand significantly. 

 

David Hickson (March 10, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update. (video)

 

See also:

TPR (March 7, 2025) - The Three Week Cycle, Quarterly Shift, and IPDA Data Ranges.

Robert Miner (2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Parties. 

 The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 26, 2025) - Beware The Ides of March.

The Three Week Cycle, Quarterly Shift, and IPDA Data Ranges

S&P 500 (daily chart)

Q1 2025 = Outside Quarter and Quarterly Shift.

 Price breaks October Low, hits monthly S2 to the tick, and reverses. 

 

 

 Reference:
D'onte Goodridge (2024) - Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) Data Ranges.

Jevaunie Daye (2024) - The Quarterly Theory.

Cameron Benson (2023) - The Three Week Cycle. 

The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics. 

 

CNN Fear & Greed Index.

 

SPY (daily chart) - Tom DeMark's 9-13 TD Sequential at 11.

February 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

Monthly high in US stocks around February 12 -14 (Wed-Fri), followed by avg. 3% decline into month-end.

 

Reference:

  Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 11, 2025) - Usual February Weak Trading.  

 Thursday and Friday before Presidents’ Day weekend: 

S&P 500 up 10 of last 14, DJIA up 11 times.

 

 S&P 500 seasonality: first ten sessions and last ten sessions of each month since 1928.

See also:

BeSomebodyFX (January 14, 2025) - The S&P 500's Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns. With statistics.

Robert C. Miner (January 8, 2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Parties.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 1, 2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Patterns.

 

 » This was my last bullish email for the first quarter. «
Scott Rubner, February 13, 2025.

 

2025 02 18 (Tue) = SUN @ 29 AQU = 329 degrees = negative = Rain Water [雨水]
2025 02 23 (Sun) = SUN @ 4 PIS = 334 degrees = negative
2025 02 24 (Mon) = SUN @ 5 PIS = 335 degrees = negative
Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE, Jack Gillen, 1979.