Showing posts with label S&P 500. Show all posts
Showing posts with label S&P 500. Show all posts
Friday, April 26, 2024
The S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle | Robert Miner
I am recording this on April 25th and am going to talk about the S&P 500 and the election cycle today. [...] Within the next three weeks there is going to be one of the best setups within the entire election cycle. This is a setup that since 1952 had only one minor losing year (less than -1%).
In the above chart the dark black line is the average of all election years since 1952. The gray line is the average of all election years since 1984. The red line is 2024 up to past week.
[...] The second chart just covers the beginning of March through September period of the election years. The blue line is the average of all election years since 1952. In the first chart we saw the entire year, where the first part of the year is usually fairly negative. On average, we can see this distinct dip into the middle of May.
[...] Here are just two key pieces of information from the election year study from the spring until the end of summer. Number one, the 'summer low' is usually made around the second half of May to the first half of June. So that summer low probably hasn't been made yet. It sort of implies that the S&P is likely to be sideways to down into the second half of May. At least that is based on the averages of election years. Number two, in every election year, when the first quarter was strongly bullish (which it was in 2024), the S&P traded above the March high by September 20th - except for the year 2000, when the summer high came within just seven points of the March high by September 20th.
If the S&P happens to be sideways to down for the next few weeks, we know that the bias is overwhelmingly strong and bullish and that the S&P should then trade above the March high before September 20th. The March high was the high of the year so far, and it is more than likely that the S&P will go sideways to down in the next few weeks. A correction would not be complete prior to May 23rd to 38% time retracement.
[...] The second chart just covers the beginning of March through September period of the election years. The blue line is the average of all election years since 1952. In the first chart we saw the entire year, where the first part of the year is usually fairly negative. On average, we can see this distinct dip into the middle of May.
[...] Here are just two key pieces of information from the election year study from the spring until the end of summer. Number one, the 'summer low' is usually made around the second half of May to the first half of June. So that summer low probably hasn't been made yet. It sort of implies that the S&P is likely to be sideways to down into the second half of May. At least that is based on the averages of election years. Number two, in every election year, when the first quarter was strongly bullish (which it was in 2024), the S&P traded above the March high by September 20th - except for the year 2000, when the summer high came within just seven points of the March high by September 20th.
If the S&P happens to be sideways to down for the next few weeks, we know that the bias is overwhelmingly strong and bullish and that the S&P should then trade above the March high before September 20th. The March high was the high of the year so far, and it is more than likely that the S&P will go sideways to down in the next few weeks. A correction would not be complete prior to May 23rd to 38% time retracement.
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
S&P 500 Strength into May 1 & Weakness through Mid May | Larry Williams
Larry Williams expects U.S. stock market strength through May 1 (Wed) and weakness to follow through the middle of May.
That weakness could be followed by a relief rally into early June, then another leg down in July. “I am heavily short here,” he says. He expects a strong end of the year as a rally gets under way in early September.
Quoted from:
MarketWatch (April 23, 2024) - Ralph Acampora, Larry Williams and Vance Howard see market weakness ahead.
MarketWatch (April 23, 2024) - Ralph Acampora, Larry Williams and Vance Howard see market weakness ahead.
Friday, April 12, 2024
S&P 500 Bear Reversal - Gann's Time and Price Overbalance | Robert Miner
YM and RTY have already made Bear Reversal Signal. S&P and NQ should soon confirm. Gann's time and price overbalance signals: A daily close below 5283 would be an 'overbalance of price' and strong signal the trend should be net Bear for 3-4 weeks or longer.
Friday, March 29, 2024
Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for US Stock Market | Tom McClellan
One of the big picture forecasting tools is crude oil prices as a leading indication for the overall stock market. The first chart shows crude oil prices back to 1890 compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average plotted on logarithmic scales. The price of crude oil is shifted forward by 10 years. The correlation isn't always perfect, but generally speaking, when there is a rise in crude oil prices, 10 years later, there is a rise in the stock market. When crude oil prices go flat, the stock market goes flat.
We are not
yet quite at that 10 year echo point in stocks, which would equate to
June of 2024, 10 years after crude oil peaked. That means the next few years are not going to be so great, especially
between now and early 2026. Early 2026 will be a great time for investors
to ride the stock market long all the way to 2028.
Sunday, March 24, 2024
Pervasive Euphoria Across The Market | TomTheTrader
The markets closed another week at record highs, with the S&P 500 up by 2.3%, the Nasdaq by 3%, and the Dow by 2%. [...] I want to share two charts that caught my attention: The first chart, courtesy of Sentimentrader, depicts the small speculator index at the bottom. The annotation succinctly captures the essence of the chart— "small speculators are all in."
Small speculators are all-in.
This mirrors my observation last week regarding fund managers being fully invested based on the NAAIM index. The alignment between market participants, both large and small, underscores the pervasive euphoria across the market.
Tech leadership vs S&P 500 is at highs exceeding the Great Financial Crisis.
The second chart, from Bank of America Global Research, highlights the Technology leadership versus the S&P 500, reaching levels surpassing those seen before the Great Financial Crisis. This serves as an intriguing backdrop to maintain awareness as sentiment and positioning continue to stretch.
Quoted from:
Active fund managers are all-in.
Sunday, November 26, 2023
US Stock Indexes | Shallow Retracement Into Early-Mid-December Now Likely
Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly bars)
Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily bars)
Monthly weekly and daily trends are up.
S&P 500 (weekly bars)
S&P 500 (daily bars)
Eleven days, three levels and nearly 6 * ATR above the re-accumulation low of November 9.
Nasdaq 100 (weekly bars)
Nasdaq 100 (daily bars)
Seth Golden (Nov 25, 2023):
The Trifecta of Overbought Conditions:
92% of SPX above 20-DMA, highest in 2+ yrs
McClellan Oscillator > 80+
S&P 500 2 std. above 50-DMA (RSI also 70+)
The Trifecta of Overbought Conditions:
92% of SPX above 20-DMA, highest in 2+ yrs
McClellan Oscillator > 80+
S&P 500 2 std. above 50-DMA (RSI also 70+)
Four weeks+ of price expansion beyond daily, weekly and quarterly levels. Last week narrow daily and weekly ranges. Multi-month inflation melt-up? Possible. Allen Reminick suggests a creep up into November 27 (Mon) or December 1 (Fri) followed by some rather shallow 23-50% move down into December 8 or mid-month, some X-mas rally, sideways into January 12 and up into March-April 2024. Possible. [ Allen Reminick (Nov 20, 2023) - S&P 500 Projection Into June 2024 ]
See also:
Monday, November 20, 2023
S&P 500 Projection Into June 2024 | Allen Reminick
The November rally is likely to experience some downside pressure in the first half of December and the first half of January.
After that, we expect higher prices until March and April of next year.
Friday, September 8, 2023
The Gann 707 Fractal | Allen Reminick
W.D. Gann understood the nature of how markets expand, how
they contract, the differences between time frames and the
similarities between them. Nowadays we call this fractal geometry. Fractal geometry is
extremely important to understand how markets develop and has been
used by various market technicians.
How do we use the 707 fractal to forecast the next few months in the S&P 500? In our most recent forecasts we've talked about a continued rally into the 20th or 25th of September 2023, and probably another high around October 3rd. After that we're looking for a decline that may be somewhat severe:
The number 707 shows up here on several different time frames. In the chart below the blue line is the 240 minute bar chart of the S&P 500 Futures shifted forwards by 707 units, and the red bars above are the actual current market:
What is really interesting is that 707 weeks (707 weeks ≈ 12.9 years) and 707 months (≈ 58.916 years) are also repeating. This is where the concept of fractals comes in. Different time frames are having the same form or pattern. Look at this chart of the weekly S&P 500:
 |
| The major low of 2009 and the major low of October 2022 are 707 weeks apart. |
The low in 2009 lines up to the week with the low in October 2022 - the major low that kicked off the whole bull market since 2009. This is lining up exactly with the low in October 2022, and the pattern in the decline between 2008 matches the decline in 2022. Even though the price action was much more severe back then, the form was the same. And we are talking about the form and now the rally that was taking place since October is also repeating very nicely 2009 into 2010 and 2011.
So we saw two examples of 707, the first on the 240 minute bar chart and the second on the weekly chart. From this we take it one step further and look at 707 months (58.916 years). 707 months turns out to be two times the exact length of the cycle of Saturn. 25.457 years is the exact number of years of Saturn's revolution times two which equals 707 months to the day = 10,759 days.
Quoted from:
Allen Reminick (Sep 04, 2023) - Revealing the Gann 707 Fractal: Unlocking Market Secrets. (video)
Allen Reminick (Sep 04, 2023) - Revealing the Gann 707 Fractal: Unlocking Market Secrets. (video)
See also:
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