Showing posts with label David Hickson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label David Hickson. Show all posts

Sunday, March 23, 2025

Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2

 S&P 500 (daily bars) - Elliott Wave projection with a final retracement into the end of March, 
followed by a decline into mid-May, below the August 2024 low.

S&P 500 is ready for the next, and final leg up. With price confirming a bullish WXY model at Friday's 5,603 low, I am expecting one more leg up under the 2nd wave targeting 5,750-5,825 to set up for the ultra bearish 3/4/5 wave sequence.

S&P 500 (3-day bars) - Elliott Wave count projecting a decline into late Q1 2026, 
below the October 2023 low.
 
The 16-year rally ended at the 6,147 high with a bearish ending diagonal formation. We're now in the early stages of a catastrophic decline, and price is expected to break this 6-month range escalating much lower. Although I mirrored the path of the 2007-09 crash, this week's rally could easily be the last chance to sell before a 40-60% decline. 


Ref
erence:
Trigger Trades, March 22 & 23, 2025.
 
 
 
2025 Roadmap for the S&P 500 based on Spectrum Cycle Analysis,
with the ideal Q1 low being March 28, 2025, which will set up the final leg up. 
 
S&P 500 projection for 2025 (timing, not magnitude) with seasonally strong windows in the bottom panel.
 
 

 80 Day Low in mid March, and 20 Week Low in mid May.
 
S&P 500 Index (daily bars) vs 56 Year Cycle.

Tuesday, March 11, 2025

S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle

 Current 18-Month Cycle in the S&P 500 (weekly bars, October 2023 to March 2025) and retracement levels.
 
The current 18-month cycle began in October 2023 and is expected to bottom between April and June 2025, likely falling below the August 2024 low and the 50% retracement level. J.M. Hurst's nominal 18-month cycle has an average wavelength of 17.93 months, or 77.98 weeks, or 545 calendar days, which can contract and expand significantly (see table and Hurst chart below). The weekly pattern for March appears to be the X-AMD version, meaning this week should be the month's (re-)accumulation phase (while Martin Armstrong alerted to a "panic cycle").
 
In his latest update, David Hickson expects the current 18-Month Cycle to bottom around May-June, and the current 80-Day Cycle this or next week (CPI, Quad Witching, FOMC Statement; see Hurst chart below). Lately, shorter Hurst cycles in the dollar-priced S&P 500 have been distorted by the significant changes in the EUR/USD valuation.
 
 

Monday, March 10, 2025

Markets Crash On Cue & Trump Won't Rule Out Recession | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Kirk: It looks like Trump is aware of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM). Markets crashed right on cue with Socrates, and he refused to rule out a recession. What is most curious is that you had a Panic Cycle for this week of March 10 [...]
 

Reply by Martin Armstrong: The ECM turned down on May 7, 2024. That was the day of the attempted assassination of Zelensky. Within weeks, the central banks started lowering rates. [...]
We are headed into a Global RECESSION no matter what Trump thinks or does.
 
 Dow Jones Industrials Index - Weekly Timing Arrays (Feb 24 - May 12, 2025)

[...] This is NOT my personal opinion. Socrates is the only fully functioning Artificial Intelligence Computer with more than a 40-year track record. [...] It will be a depression in some regions, primarily Europe. One country alone does not dictate the trend globally. Trump cannot create an economic boom when the rest of the world is imploding.


 

Monday, January 13, 2025

Hurst Cycles Forecast Bearish Q1 for S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

The first quarter of 2025 is expected to be bearish for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Following the 40-day cycle trough observed in early December, the S&P 500 is expected to form a 80-day cycle trough around mid-January, i.e., this week.
 
 S&P 500 down into late March or early April.

A significant cycle trough in the first few months of 2025 is anticipated, likely around March or April. The price action as it exits the 80-day cycle trough will be crucial in determining the strength of the recovery or the continuation of the bearish trend.

 NASDAQ down into May.

The NASDAQ's 20-week cycle trough was formed in mid-December, and a significant 18-month cycle trough is expected around May 2025. A weak bounce from this week's low would indicate further bearish movement into May.

Thursday, December 5, 2024

S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update | Steve Miller

In early November, both small caps and mid caps took the lead, but they have since paused. Recently, the mega caps have regained leadership, with Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft all making sharp moves to the upside. This has contributed to a recent uptick in the S&P 500. On the upside, we have short term resistance levels between 6,073 and 6,176.

S&P 500 (weekly bars), six-month cycles, three-month cycles.

S&P 500 (daily bars), 20-trading day cycle
trough is expected on December 7 (±3).

The next 20 trading day cycle low is expected on December 7 (
±3 trading days), and the dominant cycle trough is due in late May to June of 2025. The market is clearly in a rising phase, with the weekly trend firmly up. Only a drop below the 5,700 low would shift the market from a bullish cycle structure to a bearish one. On the short-term S&P 500 chart, the current setup resembles Apple’s chart: a bullish, right-hand translation throughout nearly the entire rally.
 
Now there is this very narrow window around December 7 for a pullback. The downside base case would be between 6,025 and 5,963, followed by another move to the upside for a higher high. Overall, this remains a very bullish market during a bullish seasonal period, and fading the trend is not advisable at this time.

 

Friday, October 25, 2024

S&P Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update | Steve Miller

The upcoming week marks the pre-election period, where heightened election anxiety and a significant earnings schedule are expected to drive high volatility. This trend is likely to continue through election day. Historical analysis shows that the September to November timeframe has often been associated with increased risk, frequently leading to substantial market corrections.

SPY (weekly bars), the MACD, and the extreme stretch between the 13-week and 89-week 
moving averages, which historically always leads to extended corrections.
 
Stocks have demonstrated remarkable resilience, displaying behavior that can be characterized as extreme. The above weekly chart of the SPY highlights this dynamic, tracking the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) alongside the distance between the 13-week and 89-week moving averages. Currently, the MACD indicates an unusually wide gap between these averages, suggesting a potential correction on the horizon.

 SPY (weekly bars), six-month cycles, three-month cycles.

When such corrections occur, they can be quite severe. Although the market has remained strong, November and December are anticipated to experience downturns due to the current extremes, which could lead to several challenging weeks ahead. Nevertheless, broader analysis suggests that the bull market may extend into 2025 before facing a significant downturn, potentially resulting in years of low or negative returns in the stock market.

 SPY (daily bars) and 21-trading day cycles with projected ideal troughs around 
November 6 (Wed) and December 4 (Wed), with a margin of ±3 trading days.

An examination of the SPY across various timeframes, including weekly and two-hour metrics, reveals a deterioration in the two-hour indicators, often the first sign of an impending correction. Historical examples, such as the market's reaction following the 2016 Trump election, highlight the potential for volatility. On that occasion, the Dow fell nearly 800 points before rebounding. Similar large movements are anticipated in the days leading up to and following this forthcoming election. While signs of a downturn have been expected for weeks, the market continues to set the course, underscoring its ultimate authority.

 

Thursday, September 19, 2024

S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025 | Jeff Hirsch

We are revising our 15-Year Projection chart. This was first drawn in 2011 when our book Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It (Wiley) hit the stores. The projection was based upon, drawn from, years of historical patterns and data. In the years to follow numerous unprecedented events occurred, the Fed held its key lending rate in a range of 0 to 0.25% for an incredible seven years, under took multiple rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and essentially pledged unwavering support for the market. Many other nations and central banks around the world were taking similar or even more aggressive steps to support their own economies and markets. Negative interest rates and negative yields on 10-year bonds are not what we consider normal.
 
 
 
Our current updated projection is illustrated in the red line in the chart. In keeping with the history of market performance in pre-election years and the current trajectory of the indices, it would not surprise us for the market to continue rising through April make new high here in Q2, then pause over the weaker summer months before hitting higher highs toward yearend. Next year promises to be an embattled election year and the likelihood of another significant correction or even a bear market are higher.