Reference:
See also:
Showing posts with label Spectrum Cycle Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spectrum Cycle Analysis. Show all posts
Sunday, September 20, 2026
Spectrum Cycle Composites: S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow Jones | Sergey Ivanov
Sunday, September 13, 2026
S&P 500 Hurst Cycle Analysis
August established the multi-year high for the current cycle. On August 13 (Thu), the market peaked at 7,816.7, marking the dual 18-month and 40-week crest for the move that began at 4,835 in April 2025. This peak reflected mixed cycle translation: the 18-month cycle peaked late (at 77% of its duration), whereas the 40-week cycle peaked early (at 48%). A lesser secondary crest for the 80-day and 20-week cycles followed on August 28 (Fri) at 7,771.
From these highs, the market is trending downward toward a major nested trough projected for January 9 (Sat) 2027, which aligns the 18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles. Downside targets range from 7,148 on a standard 20-week retracement to approximately 6,500 if the full 40-week amplitude unfolds.
From these highs, the market is trending downward toward a major nested trough projected for January 9 (Sat) 2027, which aligns the 18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles. Downside targets range from 7,148 on a standard 20-week retracement to approximately 6,500 if the full 40-week amplitude unfolds.
Forward Projection & Confluence Calendar.
September: Initial Decline
September represents the first leg of this broader decline rather than a continuation to new highs. A 20-day trough printed on September 10 (Thu) at 7,580. Provided this support holds, the only remaining minor crests are a 5-/10-/20-day cluster on September 14 (Mon), September 15 (Tue), and September 18 (Fri) near 7,710. Subsequent low projections follow in close order, beginning with the 5-day low on September 16 (Wed), followed by the 10-day low on September 21 (Mon), and concluding with the 40-day low on September 26 (Sat), which marks the midpoint of the active 80-day cycle.
October: Continued Downside
October continues the downward trajectory rather than initiating a late-stage rally. The 80-day cycle—whose crest is already locked in at 7,771—is due to trough on October 31 (Sat) (with an expected window spanning October 24–Nov 7), following a breakdown below its Future Line Demarcation (FLD) on September 9. Initial measured support stands at 7,562, followed by the 20-week FLD at 7,482.
Alternate Cycle Projection
If the 7,482 (the July 31 close) support fails, an accelerated alternate resolution brings the 18-month low forward to October 5 (Mon) near 7,000, bypassing the January window entirely. There is no structural path to an October all-time high; the 8,469 projection went unfulfilled in August, and the 40-week cycle has already passed its crest.
Alternate composite, different nest: 18-month / short 40-week into Oct 5 (Mon) 2026, no
mid-October 40-week crest. Key dates: Next crest August 28 7,771.4 (40-day / 80-day / 20-
week already in), working 20-day bounce September 18 · ~7,710, then October 5 trough
~7,000. If October is a deep break instead of a moderate 80-day, this is the path.
With the 80-day uptrend breaking on September 9, this down-cycle represents an immediate risk tied to a one-third division of the major 54-month or 4½-year cycle that began in April 2025. Because that fractional cycle projection matures this fall rather than early next year, the market risks shifting into a deeper low target around October 5 (near 7,000) if the S&P closes under 7,482 before reclaiming 7,720.
While January remains the principal nested low under the condition that 7,482 holds, breaching that support level invalidates the January timeline, favoring a sharper autumn selloff over extended rangebound consolidation into the new year.
Current Cycle Positions.
See also:
S&P 500 spectrum composite forecast by Sergey Ivanov via Timing Solution (September 13, 2026).
Claudio Fialdini applies the Delta Phenomenon's super-long-term 19-year (228-month) and long-term cycles to the S&P 500, proposing 14 alternating waves of tops and bottoms culminating in a major peak and deep crash. Anchored to the Metonic cycle, historical turning points include 1929, 1947, 1966, 1987, and 2007, with Wave 14 projecting a terminal peak in 2026. Waves 1–13 comprise the secular advance; Wave 14 marks the final crest before liquidation. The green baseline traces cycle support through the 2009 GFC (Wave 1), 2011 (Wave 3), 2015–16 (Wave 5), and 2020 COVID (Wave 7) lows, followed by a projected decline toward the multi-decade trendline.
Thursday, September 10, 2026
DJIA vs Dominant Weekly Cycle Composite Through H1 2027 | Branimir Vojcic
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Red line in upper panel: significance-weighted composite of the three lower-panel sines,
mapped to the black DJIA log-scale weekly closes.
► 41-week cycle: 205 trading days ≈ 297.1 calendar days
► 25-week cycle: 123 trading days ≈ 178.3 calendar days
► 15-week cycle: 77 trading days ≈ 111.6 calendar days
► 25-week cycle: 123 trading days ≈ 178.3 calendar days
► 15-week cycle: 77 trading days ≈ 111.6 calendar days
As of today all three weekly cycles remain in decline. The composite, based on Vojcic’s analysis, projects a major swing low around October 21, followed by sustained higher highs and higher lows in the DJIA through H1 2027, reaching around 60,000.
Reference:
Tuesday, September 1, 2026
The $70k Gold Target Has a Date: Late 2050s | Branimir Vojcic
Inflation-adjusted monthly gold since 1970 shows three dominant long-term cycles: 55, 91, and 179 months. Multi-decade peaks in real gold form only when all three crest together.
That alignment has occurred three times since 1970, each marking a major historical top: January 1980 at $2,875, August 2011 at $2,699, and February 2026 at $5,492. The latest window ran from April 2025 to June 2026; real gold printed an all-time high 88% above the 1980 peak.
The
next synchronicity does not return until the second half of the 2050s.
Technicals still allow a much higher target at that date. Gold is rising
inside a century-long trend channel whose upper rail capped the 1930s
and 1980s highs. In Elliott terms it is subdividing through Cycle-degree
Wave 5. Standard Fibonacci relationships put Wave 5 in the
$18,000–$26,000 zone, which the upper channel reaches in the 2040s. A
classic commodity-style fifth-wave extension would take gold near
$70,000—the same upper-rail level the 55-, 91-, and 179-month cycles hit
when they next peak together in the late 2050s.
Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Gold Has Bottomed? What the Cycles Say | Branimir Vojcic
Shorter-term cycles indicate that Gold has formed an interim bottom.
However, the composite line of the two dominant long-term cycles (1,181 trading days or 4.687 years and 1,832 trading days or 7.27 years) suggests that Gold's correction will continue through late October 2028, followed by a rally extending into the end of November 2030.
nearing a local top, followed by an undercut/retest of the previous lows in the fall.
Saturday, August 8, 2026
VIX 80-Day Cycle Low Within Days & Volatility Ready to Break Out | Namzes
The VIX 80-day cycle low is expected within the next few days. August 5 marked day 68, which is slightly early but still within range. The 40-day cycle, shown in the bottom panel, reflects a 2:1 harmonic ratio relative to the 80-day cycle. August options expiration (OpEx, Friday, August 21) should be watched as a potential window for a volatility breakout. Volatility is likely to rise into October, where the next key low in the S&P 500 may form.
Top panel: VIX price + 80-day cycle. Middle: Seasonality/trend + dated cycle lows. Bottom: 40-day cycle oscillator.
VIX/VIX3M ratio vs. S&P 500.
The VIX/VIX3M ratio, shown inverted in the lower panel for easier comparison against the S&P 500 (in gold), highlights these 0.80 readings. When combined with extreme dispersion and a rapidly declining put/call ratio this week, these conditions point to increasing volatility, which is expected to spike in the second half of August.
See also:
Sunday, August 2, 2026
S&P 500 Forecast for August 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino
Here is the S&P 500 August 2026 Forecast. Also posted is the inverse below. The charts are not scaled for Price.
Monday, July 27, 2026
20-Week Hurst Cycle Low Due in SPX QQQ SOX SMH | Namzes
The last 80-day cycle bottomed on time (June 10). Semiconductor stocks (SOX/SMH) made marginal new all-time highs, while the broader indices—the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)—remained slightly below theirs.
PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX).
The subsequent 20-week low, following the August trough, is projected for late October, aligning with seasonal weakness and potentially offering a significant buying opportunity (see the April 2025 SOX projection). A 3.5-year cycle (Kitchin Cycle) low is still expected ahead, but no major liquidation has occurred yet and models have not issued a sell signal. Market breadth remains acceptable; however, leadership—particularly in technology and semiconductors—is weakening, while defensive rotation is increasing, both of which are cautionary signals.
Using Hurst cycle analysis, the semiconductor ETF (SMH) is entering the 10-week FLD (Future Line of Demarcation). In a strong uptrend, this level typically acts as support; a break below would imply lower projections toward the 200-day moving average (200 DMA) and Q1 highs. For now, this remains a preliminary, low-confidence projection.
PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX).
The current 40-day cycle should continue rising for a few more trading days. The next 40-day low in August will help determine whether the new 20-week cycle is bullish or bearish. A bearish outcome would show early failure, indicating left translation.
We are in a short-term downtrend, with the 50-day moving average (50 DMA) acting as a pivot near 600 on SMH. Above it, 620 is the key resistance level.
Failure at 600
would open the path to liquidation toward Q1 highs, filling gaps below
and repairing weak structure, including the large volume void between
420 and 537 (which includes the July 17 low).
See also:
Namzes (June 28, 2026) - Oil Outlook 2026: Navigating the Upcoming 40-Week Cycle Low.
Namzes (April 17, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low.
Namzes (April 17, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.
Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.
Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.
Hurst Cycle Troughs and Peaks (November 2025 through July 24, 2026).
» The current 20-week cycle could extend into a late-August bottom. «
Forward Cycle Projection through late 2026-early-2027.
Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Gold–Bitcoin: 75-Day Lead-Lag Relationship | Sergey Tarassov
Analysis of the relationship between Bitcoin and Gold suggests that Bitcoin may act as a leading indicator for Gold, with an estimated lead of approximately 75 days and a correlation of around 33%.
This relationship allows for a potential Gold projection based on a time-shifted Bitcoin series.
In the chart, the red line represents shifted Bitcoin data, while the bold blue line represents Gold's major 7.8-year cycle. Historically, Gold has more often been considered the leading asset, making this inverse lead-lag relationship an interesting observation.
Gold's 7.8-Year Cycle: Historical Analysis Since 1782 | Sergey Tarassov
Long-term Gold data from 1782 onward was analyzed with a focus on the approximately 7.8-year cycle identified through spectrum analysis.
The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection.
In the monthly chart above, multiple cycle scenarios are displayed alongside the Q-Box module projections. The majority of model outputs indicate an upward tendency through year-end 2026, followed by a projected decline through late 2028.
Reference:
Crude Oil and the Half Solar Cycle | Sergey Tarassov
In Crude Oil, a cycle corresponding to approximately half of the Sunspot activity cycle (Sunspot Cycle 2H, ~2,007 days, or ~5.5y) appears to be present. The cycle is detectable through spectrum analysis and was calculated using an astronomy-based model that accounts for the irregular duration of solar cycles.
Out-of-sample testing since 2020 shows that this variable solar-derived cycle maintains alignment with subsequent Crude Oil price movements.
Reference:
Corn and Cotton: Long-Term Cycle Projections | Sergey Tarassov
Analysis of Corn and Cotton identifies a ~17.75-year cycle consistent with Edward R. Dewey's work, but also closely aligned with the 18.6-year Lunar Node cycle.
Treated as an external and irregular cycle, projections built using the Lunar Node framework outperform standard spectral projections, highlighting the importance of adhering to method rules and analytical discipline.
The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection of Cotton through 2050.
Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026 | Sergey Tarassov
Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution charts correlate the S&P 500 with harmonics of the 41-month Kitchin cycle (currently averaging 1,267.7 days, or 3.473 years).
Note: Based on daily closes, the plotted waves are band-pass–filtered components centered on the target periodicity
(Kitchin range) and subsequently smoothed via averaging/Fourier/digital filtering, suppressing high-frequency noise
and yielding a clean sinusoidal form. Accordingly, they lack utility for day trading or short-term execution.
The cycle projections (green, blue, and magenta lines) for 2026 in the first chart suggest that the current sideways-to-down phase in the S&P 500 concludes by mid-late-July, followed by a strong projected surge into year-end, then a decline or retracement into Q1–early Q2 2027, and a renewed rise into Q1 2028.
The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection of the S&P through 2028.
The long-term chart (2021–2028) indicates an upward trajectory in the S&P 500’s Kitchin cycle into late 2026, followed by a sharp correction in Q1 2027 and a continued rise extending through 2027–2028.
%20across%20Instruments%20and%20Sectors.png)
Sergey Tarassov's table classifies each asset by its dominant cyclical drivers (e.g., Kitchin ~3–4y, Juglar ~9y, sunspot harmonics, Venus synodic, 7.8y Gold) and indicates which periodicities statistically dominate price behavior. The “Profile” column quantifies cycle influence, showing the proportion or confidence of a given cycle explaining variance (e.g., “Kitchin 100%” = primary driver). Overall, it’s a multi-cycle attribution framework used to build composite waveforms and time market turning points via overlapping periodic structures. "H" notation interpreted as harmonic components (e.g., 2H, 3H, 4H of Sunspot cycle). "Venus syn" → "Venus synodic" for clarity. Consistent cycle formatting: Cycle (length) where applicable. Ranges unified: e.g., 2H–4H instead of 2H 3H 4H. Missing profiles left blank (—) rather than inferred.
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Key Cycle Periodicities.
The second table standardizes all cycles of the first into approximate durations in days and years. Kitchin Cycle (~3.3y) ≈ Sunspot Cycle 3H (~3.7y) explains why they co-appear frequently in the dataset. Other key dominant drivers are: 5.5y (Sunspot 2H) → strongest macro-economic driver (confirmed in GDP note), 7.8y (Gold cycle) → dominant in FX + metals, and 9y (Juglar) → long equity + credit structure. Instruments with Kitchin + 3H Sunspot + Venus synodic (e.g., crypto, grains) tend to show high volatility clustering due to cycle interference.
Wednesday, July 1, 2026
S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino
Here is the SPX July 2026 Forecast. Also posted is the inverse. The charts are not scaled for Price. This forecast correlates with the Bonds Forecast in that ~July 13 appears to be an important date for a Change In Trend (CIT).
environment is that the forecast can show Change In Trend (CIT) turning points.
Reference:
[check for updates]
Monday, June 29, 2026
Silver Outlook 2026: 40-Week Cycle Low and $48–$49 Retest | Namzes
The August 2025 projection is pointing to a low forming around now, with the pink area representing the out-of-sample forecast. Concurrently, a
40-week cycle low is due now (see bottom panel), though it could result
in a choppy bottom. Given the current dollar strength and its potential
for a breakout, any upward move in precious metals might turn out to be a
short-lived counter-rally. This setup could lead to new lows around
October, where the next 20-week cycle low is scheduled to drop.
On the positive side, seasonality (middle panel) turns favorable next week, as July is historically a bullish month for the metals sector.
On the positive side, seasonality (middle panel) turns favorable next week, as July is historically a bullish month for the metals sector.
Silver is currently in an intermediate downtrend, with a likely retest of the $48–$49 former all-time high serving as the final destination.
On the hourly chart, price is basing. I want to see acceptance above 59, which could allow it to retrace toward 63 at the 200-hour moving average, and then eventually up to around 70 near the 200-day moving average. Ultimately, the 73–77 zone remains the golden pocket.
On the hourly chart, price is basing. I want to see acceptance above 59, which could allow it to retrace toward 63 at the 200-hour moving average, and then eventually up to around 70 near the 200-day moving average. Ultimately, the 73–77 zone remains the golden pocket.
The dollar (DXY) is
currently driving the metals complex, meaning a pullback would be highly constructive for precious metals. My main thesis for
2026 is that the dollar should put in an 18-month cycle low in Q1 and
start a sharp rally lasting into early fall (see bottom panel). That low
formed right on time on January 27, and we are now in the peaking phase
of the second 80-day cycle. Following the next 80-day cycle low, I
expect a powerful upward move into the fall toward the 105 area.
From a structural standpoint, the Wyckoff accumulation pattern suggests a consolidation and retest of the 100 area is ahead, acting as a Last Point of Support (LPS) before the next leg higher. Because persistent dollar strength has been a major headwind for metals, if the USD weakens over the next few weeks, it should trigger a solid counter-rally across the metals sector.
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