November Post-Election Year Seasonality: Best Month of the Year | Jeff Hirsch

November is typically a bullish month, with twelve bullish days based on the S&P 500. This includes a streak of six consecutive bullish days starting on the first trading day (Nov 3 (Mon)). Although historically a bullish month, November does have its weak points.

November Performance of US Stock Indices: Last 21-Years (2004-2024) and Post-Election Years (1950-2021).

The DJIA and Russell 2000 tend to exhibit the greatest strength at the beginning and end of the month. The Russell 2000, in particular, is notably bearish on its 12th trading day (Nov 18 (Tue)); the small-cap benchmark has risen just eleven times in the past 41 years (since 1984). On this day, the Russell 2000's average decline is 0.41%.

Recent weakness around Thanksgiving (Nov 27 (Thu)) has shifted the strength of the DJIA and S&P 500 to align more closely with that of the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the majority of bullish days occurring at the start and end of the month. The best way to trade around Thanksgiving is to go long on any weakness before the holiday and exit into strength just before or after.
 

Reference: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 30, 2025) - November Best Month of the Year for DJIA & S&P 500.

 

Post-Election Year most bullish in 4-Year Presidential Cycle since 1985.

 

S&P 500 Average Daily Performance and Hit Rate (%) (1928-2024). 

 

S&P 500 Seasonailty First and Last Half of each Month (1928-2024). 

 

S&P 500: We are now in the final phase of this rally. 

 

SPX ES-minis: Down (= 80D peak?).

  

 Gold: 80-day cycle trough zone. Up Reversal?

 

Bitcoin: Heading towards the next 80-day cycle trough. Down.

 

See also:

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

Gold and Silver: Medium- and Long-Term Cycles | Branimir Vojcic

Everyone’s talking about Gold and Silver. They have had stellar moves, but which one is really set to shine next? 

Gold is about to take the lead over Silver in the coming 3 months, based on the powerful 36-week cycle. But here’s the catch: focusing on just one cycle can sometimes leave you blindsided. Multiple cycles sometimes tell a different story.

Gold may be forming a blow-off top, but it still holds some near-term potential. Long-term Hurst cycle analysis predicts a multi-year cycle trough around 2030.

Silver — often referred to as "poor man's gold" — has been on the rise, but long-term Hurst cycles suggest a multi-year trough in late 2029, give or take.

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (October 4, 2025) - Everyone’s talking about Gold and Silver.

Branimir Vojcic (September 24, 2025) - Gold and Silver Cycles: Exploring Near-Term Potential and Long-Term Troughs. (video)

US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025 | Larry Williams

Current market cycles suggest near-term weakness across the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones. The same pattern that accurately forecasted last April’s rally now points to a pullback. 

 

» Expect weakness in Bitcoin, gold, and stocks in the near term. Not a bear market yet, 

but caution is warranted. Cycles and fundamentals together suggest a pullback is ahead. «

 

The 255-day S&P cycle, which has consistently identified past buy and sell points, indicates we are in a weak phase lasting into spring 2026, with the next major buying opportunity around the turn of the year.

 

 » The S&P has a 255-day cycle. Historically, it has nailed buy and sell points 

remarkably well. Right now, we are in the weak part of that cycle. «

This weakness is not expected to trigger a crash, but rather a corrective phase after a strong run, followed by a probable year-end rally. The 2025 forecast of a bullish trend and March buying opportunity proved accurate; the 2026 outlook projects early weakness, then a recovery.

Fundamentally, stocks are overvalued relative to bonds and gold, historically a precursor to declines. This reinforces caution, even without technical confirmation. 

 

» Yes, maybe some weakness—but nothing like 1929 or 1970. 

So, I wouldn’t jump to Dalio’s conclusions. «

Ray Dalio has warned of an 80-year cycle implying severe turmoil. However, analysis of past instances (1863, 1946) shows mostly sideways markets rather than major collapses. The cycle may suggest weakness but not systemic crisis.

In summary: expect a corrective phase in equities, with parallel declines in gold and Bitcoin, but no imminent bear market. Year-end rally potential remains, and cycles continue to provide reliable foresight.

Reference:
Larry Williams (September 24, 2025)  - Old Dogs, New Tricks: Bitcoin and Gold, and what's next for stocks. (video)

 17:19 - NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones  

20:33 - Stocks Overvalued and 80 Year Cycle?

 

The 13-Week Cycle in Stocks.
 

See also:

Larry Williams (December 24, 2024) - 2025 US Stock Market Outlook: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

 Ray Dalio (April 7, 2025) - Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs.

Ethereum Outlook – Technical Structure and Price Targets | Philip Hopf

After price had risen significantly in recent weeks, Ethereum reached new interim highs at USD 4,070 on August 8, but may now be approaching a medium-term correction. 

 

Ethereum (weekly bars): Major resistance zone around USD 4,107.

The stablecoin market volume stood at USD 250 billion on July 23 and is currently growing by roughly USD 5 billion per week. It has already reached approximately USD 280.8 billion. Over 50% of all stablecoins operate on the Ethereum blockchain – a factor seen as clearly positive for Ethereum. Capital flows show significant inflows into Ethereum ETFs in recent weeks. A notable divergence is visible between retail investors and large investors (institutions/whales):

ETH (black line) Number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 10k (blue line) sharply rising:

The whales are eating Ethereum alive.

 

■ Retail investors have been steadily reducing their Ethereum holdings for months, even during recent price gains.

■ Large investors, on the other hand, have been accumulating heavily. 

■ Number of addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH – currently worth around USD 40 million each – has risen sharply.

 

This is interpreted as a long-term bullish signal: “smart money” is buying while “dumb money” is selling.

 

Short-term price may reach USD 4,200–4,300, followed by a quick pullback.

 

From a technical perspective, there is a major resistance zone around USD 4,107 that has repeatedly triggered sharp corrections in the past. In the short term, price could reach this area or slightly exceed it (up to about USD 4,200–4,300). A breakout above this level might attract momentum traders, potentially followed by a quick pullback.

The expected correction could, depending on the exact high, amount to USD 1,000–1,300, bringing the price down to the USD 3,000 range or lower. This phase is viewed as a buying opportunity.

 

A correction down to around USD 3,000 should be followed by a medium-term
rise to USD 5,500–6,500 and long-term targets of USD 12,000–14,000.

In the medium term, after the correction, another upward move is anticipated, with targets between USD 5,500 and 6,500. In the long term price regions of USD 12,000–14,000 are considered possible. Exact timing cannot be derived from Elliott Wave analysis, as price movements and patterns can vary greatly in duration.

Reference:

Philip Hopf (August 8, 2025) - Ethereum: The Whales are Eating the Market Alive! (video)

 

ETH's 3-year cycle rises late 2025–mid-2027 as BTC’s 4-year cycle declines until early 2027, 

favoring ETH’s outperformance vs. BTC through ~2028.

Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle

The 40-week cycle, also known as the 9-Month Cycle, is a cornerstone of J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory, developed during the 1960s and 1970s to forecast financial market movements through harmonic cycles. Spanning approximately 272.8 days from trough to trough, it consists of two 20-week cycles (19.48 weeks or 136.4 days each). The 40-week cycle is additionally subdivided into four 10-week or 80-day cycles (68.2 days), eight 40-day cycles (34.1 days), sixteen 20-day cycles (17 days), thirty-two 10-day cycles (8.5 days), and sixty-four 5-day cycles (4.3 days), forming one nested structure essential for swing and position trading. 

This idealized 40-Week Cycle (purple) of 272.8 calendar days is divided into two 20-week cycles (teal), each
of which is further divided into two 10-week cycles (blue), highlighting the complete nested harmonic structure.

Note that the 40-week cycle is itself half of the 18-month cycle, which in turn is one-third of the 54-month cycle—half of a 9-year cycle—and so on. The 40-week cycle’s intermediate-term horizon captures significant market swings, making it ideal for timing entries at troughs and exits at peaks, especially when aligned with shorter cycles (10-week, 20-week) or longer cycles (18-month, 54-month). 

 

The nominal 40-Week Cycle as a part of greater Hurst cycles.

 

Current S&P 500 Hurst Cycles: Long-term, 18-year cycle upward, peaking 2028-2030, trough by 2036; 9-year cycle bullish, peaking 2026-2027, trough 2028-2030; 54-month sub-cycle upward, trough December 2026. Medium-term, 40-week cycle bullish; 20-week cycle downward, trough late August/early September 2025. Short-term, 80-day, 40-day, 20-day cycles downward, synchronous, with troughs August 18-20 (20-day), August 22-26 (40-day), end September (80-day). Considering over 300 years of US stock market data, major troughs occurred in 2008 (72-year), December 2019 (9-year), with 18-year trough expected ~2029. Longer-term 36-, 72-, 144-year cycles exert gradual influence; 144-year cycle, bottomed 1932, now declining, though markets may rise before full impact. 

 

54-month, 18-month, and 40-week cycles in the CAD/USD (weekly bars), 2020-2025.

 

Bitcoin (monthly bars): 18-month and 54-month cycle peaks and troughs, 2018-2027.

 

In bear markets, the cycle’s crest occurs early (second to third month, left translation), with a brief rise and prolonged decline; in bull markets, the crest shifts later (sixth to eighth month, right translation), leading to a longer advance. The strongest rallies typically occur in the first three months when cycles align upward, while the last three months are vulnerable to renewed declines. 

 

Why the turning points of individual long-term cycles typically diverge—often significantly—from the composite 
or summation cycle of the three to four most prominent cycles (red), and thus from actual market price extremes.

 Hurst's nominal model allows for significant variability in actual cycle lengths

(Hurst's Principle of Variation).

 

Hurst's Nominal Model  can be displayed as a series of sinusoids (x-axis) with different amplitudes (y-axis) that, when summed, create a composite model, represented by the thick black line in the following charts. J.M. Hurst's concept, termed "sigma-l," represents the sum of all cycles within a system, assuming an infinite series of cycles with increasing periods. This underlying trend, conceptualized as the sum of sinusoidal functions, is dynamic and never static. It may appear flat during sideways consolidations of shorter cycles, but this reflects the influence of a much larger cycle, relative to the cycle in focus, turning upward or downward.
 

40-Week Cycle without or neutral trend.

 

The above flat or neutral model of a 40-week cycle assumes a non-existent sigma-l, meaning its value is zero. In real markets, this is never true but may be approximated when a much longer cycle is turning upward or downward.

 40-Week Cycle with bullish trend.

 

The above bullish model of a 40-week cycle features a positive underlying trend that modulates the composite summation, causing already bullish FLD interactions to significantly exceed upside targets. Interactions previously expected to meet downside targets will now be undershot.

 40-Week Cycle with bearish trend.

 

The above negative model of a 40-week cycle features a bearish (negative) underlying trend that modulates the composite summation, causing already bearish FLD interactions to significantly exceed downside targets. Interactions previously expected to meet upside targets will now be undershot.

 

The addition of an underlying trend impacts the summary status 

of each interaction in the series, influencing decisions. 

The tabulation above summarizes each 20-day FLD interaction within the idealized 40-week period, based on the previously described neutral, bullish and bearish models. M-Sigma indicates the trade direction and strength of interactions when the underlying trend is assumed to be zero, representing a localized subset of the underlying trend.
 

Subsequent summary columns reflect the differences when the underlying trend is bullish or bearish, providing a truer representation of Sigma-L. This better aligns with real price action in financial markets.
 

When accounting for the underlying trend, the summary columns show that in a bullish scenario, trends previously labeled as "risk buy" become standard "buys," some "buys" escalate to "strong buys," and so forth. The underlying trend amplifies bullish signals and weakens bearish signals. Conversely, a bearish underlying trend has the opposite effect.

Example of an 18-month cycle projection for the current S&P 500 in the chart below: 

 

18-Month Cycle Projection for the S&P 500 based on Hurst's Nominal Model:

A 9-year cycle trough hit in December 2019, followed by the March 2020 pandemic 18-month cycle trough. The 54-month cycle trough of October 2022 is rising, set to peak in early 2026. The 9-year cycle, likely peaked in 2023, is declining, but slow movement maintains bullishness, possibly linked to an 18-year cycle trough. An 18-month cycle trough formed in early April 2025. 

 

The orange line is the 18-month cycle (17.93 months = 546.6 calendar days), the light green the 40-week cycle (9 months = 38.97 weeks = 272.8 days), dark green the 20-week component (4.5 months = 19.97 weeks = 136.4 days), light blue the 10-week cycle (= 68.2 days), dark blue the so called 40-day or 5-week cycle (= 34.1 days) and finally the so called 20-day cycle (17 days) is the purple sinusoid. The X axis represents the number of calendar days. 
 

In the S&P 500, April 7, 2025, was an 18-month cycle low, and the next 

40-week cycle troughs are estimated for early 2026 and late Q4 2026.

The wavelengths in the above S&p 500 projection are average values rather than exact measurement. The thick black composite line ignores the effects of both the trend and cycles shorter than 20 days or longer than 18 months. Assuming the US stock market operates with clockwork precision (which it does not, see Hurst's Principle of Variation), the dates for upcoming peaks and troughs were calculated from the 18-month cycle trough on April 7, 2025, and the aforementioned average cycle lengths. 

 

10 Years of the nominal 40-week cycles in the SPY—one of the most coherent longer term cycles in stock markets today,

is projected to peak on August 19, 2025, according to Sigma-I.net.

 

See also:

David F (2024) - Underlying Trend: Sigma-L. 

Christopher Grafton (2011)  - Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis. 

David Hickson (2025) - Sentinent Trader Software for Hurst Cycles Analysis. 

 Lars von Thienen (2025) - Cycle Tools - App Manual for Online Spectrum Cycle Analysis.

TPR (2025)  - J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory.

 Martin Armstrong (2008) - The 8.6 Month or 37.33 Week Internal Cycle.

 

Comparison of Hurst’s Cyclic Theory and Spectrum Cycle Analysis.

 

Lars von Thienen's online Spectrum Cycle Analysis tools.

Gold Nearing Its 54-Month Hurst Cycle Peak | David Hickson

Gold's price action has been challenging to analyze due to its recent flat trend, forming a wedge pattern. Gold is rising into an 80-day cycle peak, with potential for a higher price and a major 54-month cycle peak ahead.

Gold is currently rising into an 80-day cycle peak, and a higher price is expected in the near term.

Peak-Based Analysis (price peaks are synchronized): The current 54-month cycle peak is not sharply isolated, reducing confidence in its placement. A larger, sharper peak is expected, potentially displaced to the right, possibly reaching higher prices within the ongoing 80-day cycle peak.
Trough-Based Analysis (cycles align at troughs, which is mathematically incompatible with peak synchronization): The composite model (combining both analyses) shows divergence from the actual price, particularly recently, despite aligning at the 80-day cycle trough. This discrepancy suggests the major cycle peak is mispositioned, reinforcing the likelihood of a significant peak forming soon.

Close monitoring is needed due to the analysis discrepancy and non-ideal peak characteristics.

Reference:
David Hickson (14 July 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Analysis for Gold. (video)

 

See also:

Namzes (January 12, 2025)  - 2025 Gold Forecast.  

TPR (2018) - J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory.

 

Gold (CMX) 40 Year Seasonality (1980-2019).

 

Gold likely remains in a broader bullish Elliott Wave structure, still supporting the expectation of a new all-time high. The preferred view is that wave four ended at $3,123 and wave five has begun, or that gold is forming an ending diagonal, having completed wave one and now correcting in wave two. This would lead to a five-wave diagonal, typically marked by overlaps, ultimately reaching new highs in a less aggressive fashion. The alternate view is that gold remains in an extended wave four correction. However, this is seen as less likely due to the disproportionate time it would take compared to previous subwaves, making it structurally inconsistent with typical Elliott Wave proportions.

  

Elliott Wave structure favors another all-time high around $3,600 depending on

how Wave 5 unfolds [see the above mentioned major 54-month Hurst cycle peak].

 

Support at $3,123 and especially $2,970 remains critical. Staying above these levels keeps the bullish case intact. A decisive break below $2,970 with increased downside momentum would raise the likelihood that gold has topped. The structure still favors another all-time high, with a potential target around $3,600. Unless $2,970 breaks with conviction, the market bias remains upward, with summer consolidation expected to resolve higher into the fall and year-end.

 

 

Following the completion of Wave 5, gold is expected to undergo a longer-term, multi-year retracement—either to around $2,541, or more significantly, by 61.8% to 78.6%, potentially reaching levels near $1,379.50 or even $884.20.

 

Reference:
HKCM Global (June 27, 2025)  - Gold Bull Market Losing Steam – Time to Reposition? (video)

Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+ | Branimir Vojcic

The analysis of Bitcoin’s performance concludes that Ethereum is likely to outperform Bitcoin over the next few years. However, Bitcoin’s price trajectory is still expected to show significant movement. 

 

Bitcoin's cycle peak in the 2nd half of 2025 will likely coincide with price reaching the green rectangle range, which is a forty-week

cycle price target. According to the preferred Elliott Wave count, that peak should be a wave (a) of super-cycle degree.

 

A cycle composite on the weekly chart projects Bitcoin's peak into the second half of 2025. 

 
A composite of three dominant cycles on the weekly chart indicates continued upside in the coming months, with a cycle peak projected for the second half of 2025. This peak is expected to align with Bitcoin reaching a price target within a green rectangle range, as determined by a 40-week cycle, and corresponds to a wave A of supercycle degree according to the preferred long-term Elliott wave count.

The relative performance of Ethereum versus Bitcoin will likely be better in the next few years.

 

Following this peak, a downturn is anticipated in 2026, with a cycle trough expected in the second half of the year or early 2027. This corrective phase is identified as a supercycle wave B, potentially bringing Bitcoin’s price down to around the 40,000 range during a multi-year correction. The lower blue trend line is highlighted as a logical support level during this period. The corrective wave B could manifest in various forms, such as a zigzag, triangle, or other corrective structures.

After the correction, a supercycle wave C is expected to drive Bitcoin’s price to the 160,000 range or higher, marking a significant long-term upward movement. This analysis combines cycle analysis and Elliott wave theory to provide a comprehensive outlook on Bitcoin’s price behavior over the coming years.

 

ETH’s dominant 3-year cycle enters an up-phase from late 2025 to mid-2027, while BTC’s 4-year cycle remains in decline until early 2027. This out-of-phase alignment supports ETH outperformance vs. BTC through ~2028.

Ethereum is expected to outperform Bitcoin until 2028: Ethereum operates on a dominant three-year cycle, while Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle. These cycles are currently out of phase—Ethereum's cycle is projected to rise from late 2025 to mid-2027, while Bitcoin's cycle will decline until early 2027. Though other factors also influence performance, these dominant cycles are key long-term indicators. 

 

Reference:

Branimir Vojcic (July 14, 2025) - Bitcoin's Next Move (2025-2028): Cycle and Elliott Wave Analysis. (video) 

Branimir Vojcic (May 21, 2025)  - Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Which Crypto Will Dominate? (video) 

 

Altcoin Season Index: It is not Altcoin Season!
 

Bitcoin's Seasonal Trend.

 

 

Bitcoin formed a 40-week cycle trough in April, followed by an 80-day cycle trough in late June. Bitcoin recently hit a $121,000 target set in May or June, with price finding support at the 80-day cycle FLD. A 20-week cycle trough is expected in early September, likely at the 20-week FLD level. A 54-month cycle trough in late 2022 drives the current bullish action, with an 18-month cycle trough in August 2024 forming bullish M shapes. The current 18-month cycle, ending in early 2026, is expected to be less bullish as the 54-month cycle turns down. Watch for a peak before the next 18-month cycle trough in early 2026.

 

Hurst Cycle Analysis for Bitcoin by David Hickson, July 14, 2025.