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Showing posts with label Timing Solution. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Timing Solution. Show all posts
Sunday, September 20, 2026
Spectrum Cycle Composites: S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow Jones | Sergey Ivanov
Sunday, September 13, 2026
S&P 500 Hurst Cycle Analysis
August established the multi-year high for the current cycle. On August 13 (Thu), the market peaked at 7,816.7, marking the dual 18-month and 40-week crest for the move that began at 4,835 in April 2025. This peak reflected mixed cycle translation: the 18-month cycle peaked late (at 77% of its duration), whereas the 40-week cycle peaked early (at 48%). A lesser secondary crest for the 80-day and 20-week cycles followed on August 28 (Fri) at 7,771.
From these highs, the market is trending downward toward a major nested trough projected for January 9 (Sat) 2027, which aligns the 18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles. Downside targets range from 7,148 on a standard 20-week retracement to approximately 6,500 if the full 40-week amplitude unfolds.
From these highs, the market is trending downward toward a major nested trough projected for January 9 (Sat) 2027, which aligns the 18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles. Downside targets range from 7,148 on a standard 20-week retracement to approximately 6,500 if the full 40-week amplitude unfolds.
Forward Projection & Confluence Calendar.
September: Initial Decline
September represents the first leg of this broader decline rather than a continuation to new highs. A 20-day trough printed on September 10 (Thu) at 7,580. Provided this support holds, the only remaining minor crests are a 5-/10-/20-day cluster on September 14 (Mon), September 15 (Tue), and September 18 (Fri) near 7,710. Subsequent low projections follow in close order, beginning with the 5-day low on September 16 (Wed), followed by the 10-day low on September 21 (Mon), and concluding with the 40-day low on September 26 (Sat), which marks the midpoint of the active 80-day cycle.
October: Continued Downside
October continues the downward trajectory rather than initiating a late-stage rally. The 80-day cycle—whose crest is already locked in at 7,771—is due to trough on October 31 (Sat) (with an expected window spanning October 24–Nov 7), following a breakdown below its Future Line Demarcation (FLD) on September 9. Initial measured support stands at 7,562, followed by the 20-week FLD at 7,482.
Alternate Cycle Projection
If the 7,482 (the July 31 close) support fails, an accelerated alternate resolution brings the 18-month low forward to October 5 (Mon) near 7,000, bypassing the January window entirely. There is no structural path to an October all-time high; the 8,469 projection went unfulfilled in August, and the 40-week cycle has already passed its crest.
Alternate composite, different nest: 18-month / short 40-week into Oct 5 (Mon) 2026, no
mid-October 40-week crest. Key dates: Next crest August 28 7,771.4 (40-day / 80-day / 20-
week already in), working 20-day bounce September 18 · ~7,710, then October 5 trough
~7,000. If October is a deep break instead of a moderate 80-day, this is the path.
With the 80-day uptrend breaking on September 9, this down-cycle represents an immediate risk tied to a one-third division of the major 54-month or 4½-year cycle that began in April 2025. Because that fractional cycle projection matures this fall rather than early next year, the market risks shifting into a deeper low target around October 5 (near 7,000) if the S&P closes under 7,482 before reclaiming 7,720.
While January remains the principal nested low under the condition that 7,482 holds, breaching that support level invalidates the January timeline, favoring a sharper autumn selloff over extended rangebound consolidation into the new year.
Current Cycle Positions.
See also:
S&P 500 spectrum composite forecast by Sergey Ivanov via Timing Solution (September 13, 2026).
Claudio Fialdini applies the Delta Phenomenon's super-long-term 19-year (228-month) and long-term cycles to the S&P 500, proposing 14 alternating waves of tops and bottoms culminating in a major peak and deep crash. Anchored to the Metonic cycle, historical turning points include 1929, 1947, 1966, 1987, and 2007, with Wave 14 projecting a terminal peak in 2026. Waves 1–13 comprise the secular advance; Wave 14 marks the final crest before liquidation. The green baseline traces cycle support through the 2009 GFC (Wave 1), 2011 (Wave 3), 2015–16 (Wave 5), and 2020 COVID (Wave 7) lows, followed by a projected decline toward the multi-decade trendline.
Sunday, August 30, 2026
Astrological Decans, Tarot and Stock Market Cycles | Olga Morales
Financial markets react to shifts in collective mood—moving between optimism and pessimism, hope and fear, or confidence and panic. Australian financial astrologer Olga Morales explores how these emotional states manifest in market movements through astrological decans, Tarot symbolism, and planetary rhythms. Building on the foundational work of W.D. Gann (1878 – 1955) and Muriel Bruce Hasbrouck (1890 – 1981), her framework treats price patterns as direct expressions of collective human sentiment.
S&P 500 (daily candles). Mars decans: sharp reversals and volatility; Saturn decans: major market lows.
A decan is a 10-degree subdivision of a 30-degree zodiac sign—creating 36 segments across the 360-degree zodiac starting at 0° Aries (defined by the spring equinox in the tropical zodiac)—each traditionally assigned a specific planetary ruler. Morales suggests that market turning points and periods of heightened
volatility often correspond with the Sun or other planets moving through
particular decans: Mars-ruled decans are frequently associated with sharp
reversals and increased volatility, while Saturn-ruled decans often
coincide with significant market lows.
The five Decans ruled by Mars: Aries Decan 1 (0°–10° Aries), Gemini Decan 2 (10°–20° Gemini), Leo Decan 3 (20°–30° Leo), Scorpio Decan 1 (0°–10° Scorpio), Capricorn Decan 2 (10°–20° Capricorn), and Pisces Decan 3 (20°–30° Pisces). The 36 Decans Chaldean Order ranks the seven traditional planets by geocentric orbital speed (°/day) from slowest to fastest: Saturn, Jupiter, Mars, Sun, Venus, Mercury, and Moon. Initiating at 0° Aries under the ruler Mars, this seven-planet sequence repeats continuously across the 36 decans, concluding the zodiac wheel at 30° Pisces under Mars, which creates the consecutive double-Mars rule at the Pisces-Aries nexus.
Decans and the Tarot's Minor Arcana
Drawing from the occult teachings of the Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn, Muriel Hasbrouck demonstrated in her 1941 book, "Pursuit of Destiny" (later republished/retitled as "Tarot and Astrology"), that major market trend shifts consistently align with planetary entries into new decans. Her six-year study revealed
that approximately 75% of market trend changes occurred within 24 hours
of a decan boundary transition. Beyond financial markets, Hasbrouck
applied this predictive framework to seismic activity, forecasting major
earthquakes to a degree that occasionally drew government censorship.
Following the Hasbrouck system, Morales assigns each decan a corresponding card from the Tarot's Minor Arcana. The cards are organized according to the four elements: Wands correspond to the fire signs Aries, Leo, and Sagittarius; Pentacles to the earth signs Taurus, Virgo, and Capricorn; Swords to the air signs Gemini, Libra, and Aquarius; and Cups to the water signs Cancer, Scorpio, and Pisces.
Psychological Interpretation of Market Behavior
By analyzing market indices like the S&P 500, individual Tarot cards provide a psychological interpretation of specific transits:
► Mars-Ruled Decans: Associated with heightened volatility, sharp reversals, and conflict. Specific transits reflect distinct behavioral states—for instance, the Sun moving through Mars-ruled Gemini (9 of Swords) corresponds to market panic and despair, while its transit through Scorpio (5 of Cups) reflects downturns driven by a loss of pleasure and sentiment.► Sun-Ruled Decans: Produce strong bullish momentum, particularly when the Sun transits its sign of exaltation in Aries.
► Saturn-Ruled Decans: Coincide with market bottoming phases, consolidation, and major cyclical lows.
► Other Rulers: Jupiter, Venus, Mercury, Moon are more mixed and depend heavily on the specific Tarot card plus the overall combination of planets.
re-entries (ET). Sun-, Mars-, and Saturn-ruled decans are shaded yellow.
Fast planets trigger short-term volatility; slow outer planets dictate macro trends.
Mars decans tend to trigger volatility reversals, whereas Saturn decans mark lows.
Applications for Traders
While initial observations often focus on the Sun's transit through the 36 decans (see first chart above), Morales's framework applies to all planetary bodies (see table above). Fast-moving inner planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars) trigger short-term volatility bursts, whereas slow-moving outer planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto) dictate multi-month macro trends as they pass through 10-degree sectors. Morales encourages traders to experiment with these planetary rhythms rather than accept them passively. It might be worth comparing tropical decan results against those of the Sidereal zodiac—used in Vedic astrology and astronomical observation—where 0° Aries is anchored to fixed star constellations rather than the equinox.
Reference:
Olga Morales (August 29, 2026) - Can the Astrological Decans Reveal Market Turning Points? (video)
Olga Morales (August 29, 2026) - Can the Astrological Decans Reveal Market Turning Points? (video)
» Adding the mathematical components completes Olga Morales’s decan model. The chart above maps a S&P 500 volatility model against the Sun's decan positions, with the solid red line representing volatility—not trend. «
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Saturday, August 8, 2026
VIX 80-Day Cycle Low Within Days & Volatility Ready to Break Out | Namzes
The VIX 80-day cycle low is expected within the next few days. August 5 marked day 68, which is slightly early but still within range. The 40-day cycle, shown in the bottom panel, reflects a 2:1 harmonic ratio relative to the 80-day cycle. August options expiration (OpEx, Friday, August 21) should be watched as a potential window for a volatility breakout. Volatility is likely to rise into October, where the next key low in the S&P 500 may form.
Top panel: VIX price + 80-day cycle. Middle: Seasonality/trend + dated cycle lows. Bottom: 40-day cycle oscillator.
VIX/VIX3M ratio vs. S&P 500.
The VIX/VIX3M ratio, shown inverted in the lower panel for easier comparison against the S&P 500 (in gold), highlights these 0.80 readings. When combined with extreme dispersion and a rapidly declining put/call ratio this week, these conditions point to increasing volatility, which is expected to spike in the second half of August.
See also:
Sunday, August 2, 2026
S&P 500 Forecast for August 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino
Here is the S&P 500 August 2026 Forecast. Also posted is the inverse below. The charts are not scaled for Price.
Tuesday, July 14, 2026
André Barbault's Cyclic Index and S&P 500 Behavior | Sergey Tarassov
André Barbault's Index of Cyclical Variations or Cyclic Index measures
the balance between waxing and waning angular separations among
planets, analogous to lunar phases—where increasing (waxing) angles are
associated with more optimistic conditions and decreasing (waning)
angles with more pessimistic conditions. The same principle is extended
across all planetary angles, with heliocentric configurations preferred.
Heliocentric Cyclic Index vs. S&P 500.
Gold–Bitcoin: 75-Day Lead-Lag Relationship | Sergey Tarassov
Analysis of the relationship between Bitcoin and Gold suggests that Bitcoin may act as a leading indicator for Gold, with an estimated lead of approximately 75 days and a correlation of around 33%.
This relationship allows for a potential Gold projection based on a time-shifted Bitcoin series.
In the chart, the red line represents shifted Bitcoin data, while the bold blue line represents Gold's major 7.8-year cycle. Historically, Gold has more often been considered the leading asset, making this inverse lead-lag relationship an interesting observation.
Gold's 7.8-Year Cycle: Historical Analysis Since 1782 | Sergey Tarassov
Long-term Gold data from 1782 onward was analyzed with a focus on the approximately 7.8-year cycle identified through spectrum analysis.
The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection.
In the monthly chart above, multiple cycle scenarios are displayed alongside the Q-Box module projections. The majority of model outputs indicate an upward tendency through year-end 2026, followed by a projected decline through late 2028.
Reference:
Crude Oil and the Half Solar Cycle | Sergey Tarassov
In Crude Oil, a cycle corresponding to approximately half of the Sunspot activity cycle (Sunspot Cycle 2H, ~2,007 days, or ~5.5y) appears to be present. The cycle is detectable through spectrum analysis and was calculated using an astronomy-based model that accounts for the irregular duration of solar cycles.
Out-of-sample testing since 2020 shows that this variable solar-derived cycle maintains alignment with subsequent Crude Oil price movements.
Reference:
Corn and Cotton: Long-Term Cycle Projections | Sergey Tarassov
Analysis of Corn and Cotton identifies a ~17.75-year cycle consistent with Edward R. Dewey's work, but also closely aligned with the 18.6-year Lunar Node cycle.
Treated as an external and irregular cycle, projections built using the Lunar Node framework outperform standard spectral projections, highlighting the importance of adhering to method rules and analytical discipline.
The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection of Cotton through 2050.
Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026 | Sergey Tarassov
Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution charts correlate the S&P 500 with harmonics of the 41-month Kitchin cycle (currently averaging 1,267.7 days, or 3.473 years).
Note: Based on daily closes, the plotted waves are band-pass–filtered components centered on the target periodicity
(Kitchin range) and subsequently smoothed via averaging/Fourier/digital filtering, suppressing high-frequency noise
and yielding a clean sinusoidal form. Accordingly, they lack utility for day trading or short-term execution.
The cycle projections (green, blue, and magenta lines) for 2026 in the first chart suggest that the current sideways-to-down phase in the S&P 500 concludes by mid-late-July, followed by a strong projected surge into year-end, then a decline or retracement into Q1–early Q2 2027, and a renewed rise into Q1 2028.
The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection of the S&P through 2028.
The long-term chart (2021–2028) indicates an upward trajectory in the S&P 500’s Kitchin cycle into late 2026, followed by a sharp correction in Q1 2027 and a continued rise extending through 2027–2028.
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Sergey Tarassov's table classifies each asset by its dominant cyclical drivers (e.g., Kitchin ~3–4y, Juglar ~9y, sunspot harmonics, Venus synodic, 7.8y Gold) and indicates which periodicities statistically dominate price behavior. The “Profile” column quantifies cycle influence, showing the proportion or confidence of a given cycle explaining variance (e.g., “Kitchin 100%” = primary driver). Overall, it’s a multi-cycle attribution framework used to build composite waveforms and time market turning points via overlapping periodic structures. "H" notation interpreted as harmonic components (e.g., 2H, 3H, 4H of Sunspot cycle). "Venus syn" → "Venus synodic" for clarity. Consistent cycle formatting: Cycle (length) where applicable. Ranges unified: e.g., 2H–4H instead of 2H 3H 4H. Missing profiles left blank (—) rather than inferred.
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Key Cycle Periodicities.
The second table standardizes all cycles of the first into approximate durations in days and years. Kitchin Cycle (~3.3y) ≈ Sunspot Cycle 3H (~3.7y) explains why they co-appear frequently in the dataset. Other key dominant drivers are: 5.5y (Sunspot 2H) → strongest macro-economic driver (confirmed in GDP note), 7.8y (Gold cycle) → dominant in FX + metals, and 9y (Juglar) → long equity + credit structure. Instruments with Kitchin + 3H Sunspot + Venus synodic (e.g., crypto, grains) tend to show high volatility clustering due to cycle interference.
Wednesday, July 1, 2026
S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino
Here is the SPX July 2026 Forecast. Also posted is the inverse. The charts are not scaled for Price. This forecast correlates with the Bonds Forecast in that ~July 13 appears to be an important date for a Change In Trend (CIT).
environment is that the forecast can show Change In Trend (CIT) turning points.
Reference:
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