US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025 | Larry Williams

Current market cycles suggest near-term weakness across the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones. The same pattern that accurately forecasted last April’s rally now points to a pullback. 

 

» Expect weakness in Bitcoin, gold, and stocks in the near term. Not a bear market yet, 

but caution is warranted. Cycles and fundamentals together suggest a pullback is ahead. «

 

The 255-day S&P cycle, which has consistently identified past buy and sell points, indicates we are in a weak phase lasting into spring 2026, with the next major buying opportunity around the turn of the year.

 

 » The S&P has a 255-day cycle. Historically, it has nailed buy and sell points 

remarkably well. Right now, we are in the weak part of that cycle. «

This weakness is not expected to trigger a crash, but rather a corrective phase after a strong run, followed by a probable year-end rally. The 2025 forecast of a bullish trend and March buying opportunity proved accurate; the 2026 outlook projects early weakness, then a recovery.

Fundamentally, stocks are overvalued relative to bonds and gold, historically a precursor to declines. This reinforces caution, even without technical confirmation. 

 

» Yes, maybe some weakness—but nothing like 1929 or 1970. 

So, I wouldn’t jump to Dalio’s conclusions. «

Ray Dalio has warned of an 80-year cycle implying severe turmoil. However, analysis of past instances (1863, 1946) shows mostly sideways markets rather than major collapses. The cycle may suggest weakness but not systemic crisis.

In summary: expect a corrective phase in equities, with parallel declines in gold and Bitcoin, but no imminent bear market. Year-end rally potential remains, and cycles continue to provide reliable foresight.

Reference:
Larry Williams (September 24, 2025)  - Old Dogs, New Tricks: Bitcoin and Gold, and what's next for stocks. (video)

 17:19 - NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones  

20:33 - Stocks Overvalued and 80 Year Cycle?

 

The 13-Week Cycle in Stocks.
 

See also:

Larry Williams (December 24, 2024) - 2025 US Stock Market Outlook: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

 Ray Dalio (April 7, 2025) - Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs.

2025 Gold Forecast │ Namzes

Big picture: November 3, 2022, marked the 8-year cycle low in Gold, and we are currently in a secular bull market. The overall trend, which shows an upward bias from Q2 2025 onwards, is illustrated below:

The positioning of the current 4-year cycle low is challenging to determine, as the cycle is irregular and not as robust as in other markets. The average 4-year cycle, shown below, suggests a low occurring in spring 2025. However, as seen, this cycle exhibits significant variation. The best estimate is that, if it does occur, it will likely be in March 2025, featuring a rapid sell-off and recovery rather than a prolonged bottoming process:

The 18-month cycle also exhibits some variation, with two potential paths shown. The last low occurred in October 2023, meaning that either November 14 marked the low, OR the low is still ahead, potentially in spring 2025, which could coincide with the 4-year cycle low:

The shorter, tradable composite cycle is shown in red. The bottom panel displays statistics for the individual cycles. The 40-day cycle is expected to peak and then move downward into the January open, followed by an upward movement into the early February 20-week cycle peak. This period also marks the seasonal peak, when the topping window opens:

Seasonality is shown below with high-confidence zones. The topping window opens in early February, with the seasonal low occurring in the third week of March. Additionally, there is a high-confidence zone from July 26 to September 2, during which the market has risen in 85% of the past 26 years:

The most similar years (though based on a small sample size) experienced some consolidation followed by a move higher, with an 87% correlation:

Conclusion: Gold is in a secular bull market, and the most likely short-term path is as follows: consolidation for a week leading into the January 17 OpEx, followed by an upward move into early February. After that, the market is expected to decline into the third week of March. The 2,400-2,450 range provides strong technical support for any correction. From there, the market is likely to move higher, with the July 26 to September 2 period being a high-confidence zone. The next upside target is 3,000+ in the second half of 2025, with 2006 serving as the best proxy year (shown in purple):

 Consolidation into January 17 OpEx – up into early February – decline into third week of March

(2,400-2,450 strong support) – up into July 26 to September 2 top (3,000+ target) – steep decline in Q4 – up into mid 2026.

Reference:
Namzes, January 11, 2025.

 

See also: 

 Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy. 

Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025 | Sergey Tarassov

 » DJIA correction begun, and the 41 Month Kitchin Cycle suggests a decline until the end of 2025. «  
 —  Sergey Tarassov, August 5, 2024.

 

» Multiyear High in the DJIA between June and October 2024, i.e. sometime
between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle.  «    
 —  Sergey Tarassov, June 25, 2024.

Reference:
Sergey Tarassov (August 5, 2024) - Tune Up 41 Month Kitchin Cycle for DJIA. (video)
Sergey Tarassov (June 25, 2024) - Review of Forecasts for DJIA, Gold, Bitcoin, IOC and Mexican Peso. (video)

 2024 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table: » Major Panic - CRASH! «

 

Panic Cycles Week July 15 - 19 & Week September 9 - 13.

—  Martin Armstrong, June 14, 2024.

 

Decoding S&P 500 Seasonality | Martin Biber

The following chart shows three different calculations of the S&P 500's seasonality [...] one commonality is the V-shape into early October and out of it. That is the reason why everyone is talking about the weakness in September.

The following chart shows the seasonality of all the years since 1950. The seasonality only touches the low of the chart once, which means that over all those years, the market has always had one weakness at the same time. The low happens in late September, followed by a substantial rally until January. The seasonality shows some weakness into March, followed by a reaction that ends at the beginning of May. After that, the seasonality, calculated without a trend component in this chart, goes down until late September. This is why we often say, “Sell in May and go away.”

 

The red line on the following chart also shows seasonality, but only the last ten years were used to calculate the results. The behavior around the seasonal low in October looks similar to the seasonality in all years. I have, however, a second low in the middle of March and a clear top in mid-July. This top is only a few days after the one we experienced this year. Interestingly, the saying “Sell in May and go away” wasn’t good advice over the last ten years, as we would have missed the rallies between March and mid-July.

 

The following chart compares the blue seasonality with the seasonality of the years ending with 4 (2014, 2004, etc.). The low occurs in early October, compared to the two previous seasonalities, which have the seasonal low at the end of September. The rally only lasts until early November. But there is a second rally immediately afterward, which lasts until late January.

 

Summary:

While all seasonalities point to a weak September and a crucial low late in September, the seasonality of the years ending in 4 lets us assume that the seasonal low could occur one or two weeks later than usual. Anyway, no other date in a year is statistically as significant for the S&P 500 as everyone knows and is waiting for the late September or early October low.

Quoted from:
Martin Biber (August 29, 2024) - Historical Insights and Future Predictions: Decoding S&P 500 Seasonality.

2024 DJIA Compared to 40-Month and 42-Month Cycles | Sergey Tarassov

Multiyear High in the DJIA between now and October 2024, i.e. sometime 

between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle (August 2024).

 

Reference:

 Sergey Tarassov (June 25, 2024) - Review of Forecasts for DJIA, Gold, Bitcoin, IOC and Mexican Peso. (video)

Sergey Tarassov (October 14, 2022) - 40 Month and 42 Month Kitchin Economical Cycles - Case Study. o)

S&P 500 Cycles - Top May 25th [+/-] & Correction into Mid-June | Martin Biber

The medium-term cycle (orange) shows a top around the 25th of May [+/-]. The short-term cycle is topping and has another down-up move into the late May cycle top. After that, we should expect a two to five-week setback before a new uptrend starts.

 

 

[My approach only needs a few daily data points to adjust to a new situation.]

Quoted from:
Martin Biber (May 16, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycles - Short-Term Correction.

 

Cosmic Cluster Days | March - April 2024

 Cosmic Cluster Day  |   Composite Line  |  Cosmic Noise Channel

○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon

 

The fundamental premise of financial astrology suggests that the movements, angles, and forces among celestial bodies—such as the Sun, planets, moons, and nodes—are linked to human experiences as well as trends and reversals in financial markets. The phrase "As above, so below" encapsulates this belief. The blue summation or composite line shown in the chart is calculated exclusively from heliocentric planetary longitudes, drawing on 36 heliocentric planetary cycles. While the correlation between this composite line and, for instance, US stock markets can sometimes appear striking, it is crucial to recognize that it remains a reductionist model and an astrological exercise. Nevertheless, it is undeniably one of the most effective forecasting models developed by financial astrologers to date.

 

The ingredients and the methodology were developed and revealed by an extraordinary man named Larry Berg ("I discovered the Astro Method on November 19, 1980. At 1:45 p.m., to be exact."). The calculation of the composite line can be done of course manually and graphically with a Nautical Almanac and less complicated, much faster and more exact with software like e.g. an Excel Ephemeris, Alcyone Ephemeris or Timing Solution. Time and date in the chart refer to New York City (EST/EDT).  

 

Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. However, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows—also within the 'noise channel'—may correlate with or coincide with market movements and reversals.  The mid-March values are the highest in 2024. Upcoming 'cluster days' are: 

 

Feb 25 (Sun)
Feb 29 (Thu)
Mar 02 (Sat) - Mar 03 (Sun) - Mar 04 (Mon)
Mar 07 (Thu)
Mar 09 (Sat) - Mar 10 (Sun) - Mar 11 (Mon) - Mar 12 (Tue) = peak - Mar 13 (Wed) - Mar 14 (Thu) - Mar 15 (Fri) - Mar 16 (Sat)
Mar 19 (Tue) = Spring Equinox
Apr 04 (Thu)
Apr 07 (Sun)
Apr 15 (Mon)
Apr 21 (Sun)
Apr 26 (Fri)
May 15 (Wed)

 The SoLunar Rhythm in March 2024.

 

 [ oftentimes true ]

Geocentric Bradley Barometer │ Turning Points in 2024

2023 Nov 13 (Mon) = High
2023 Dec 17 (Sun) = Low
2023 Dec 22 (Fri) = High
2024 Jan 04 (Thu) = Low
2024 Jan 13 (Sat) = High
2024 Jan 22 (Mon) = Low
2024 Jan 29 (Mon) = High
2024 Feb 09 (Fri) = Low
2024 Feb 13 (Tue) = High
2024 Feb 25 (Sun) = Low
2024 May 26 (Sun) = High
2024 Jun 11 (Tue) = Low
2024 Jun 29 (Sat) = High
2024 Aug 19 (Mon) = Low
2024 Aug 29 (Thu) = High
2024 Sep 07 (Sat) = Low
2024 Sep 14 (Sat) = High
2024 Sep 19 (Thu) = Low
2024 Sep 27 (Fri) = High
2024 Oct 01 (Tue) = Low
2024 Oct 05 (Sat) = High
2024 Oct 27 (Sun) = Low
2024 Nov 02 (Sat) = High
2024 Nov 13 (Wed) = Low
2024 Nov 25 (Mon) = High
2024 Dec 08 (Sun) = Low
2024 Dec 18 (Wed) = High
2024 Dec 26 (Thu) = Low

[ calculated and charted for New York City (EST / EDT) with Timing Solution ]

The very well‐known financial astrology indicator known as the Bradley Barometer [or Bradley Siderograph] was created by Donald Bradley in 1947. The theory was that what is happening up in the sky affects human behavior on earth, so Bradley created a barometer that was a combination of transits. By assigning positive values to positive transits and negative values to negative transits he created a weighted net sum oscillator graph. The Bradley also includes the declination of planets. The higher in the sky that a planet appears above the horizon, the more positive the value. The lower in the sky that a planet appears below the horizon, the more negative the value. This Bradley Barometer graph correlated well to the markets even though there was no known physical correlation. The Bradley does very well in forecasting the headwinds or tailwinds of long‐term market moves that can occur over many months […] In recent years, it has shown quite a number of failures. This may be due to a variety of factors. If the Bradley Barometer measures the natural organic flow of the market, then there are certainly external artificial influences that can diminish its effectiveness. Some of these factors may include high‐frequency trading and/or government interference through central bank stimulus. Artificial inflation will cause a market to rise regardless of transits. The market will still oscillate, but with an upward bias. Another important angle to consider about the Bradley is that it designed to be taken in the context of what is happening in the market. The Bradley Barometer is an oscillator. We all know that the market does not oscillate back and forth all the time.

Over the past century, the market has trended higher. However, in between, there are cyclical bull markets and bear markets and sometimes there are consolidation periods. Everything forecast must be taken in its relative context to current market conditions. In a bull market, the down periods in the Bradley may simply mark sideways consolidation periods. It is useful to think of negative planetary transits in the face of a bull market as being nothing more than headwinds that are just a pause in the uptrend. It also follows that in a bull market the periods of the Bradley may mark the largest bull runs. In bear markets, the positive runs in the Bradley model serve as just pauses in the selling. The negative drops in the Bradley mark periods of intense selling in the market. In neutral markets, the Bradley tends to mirror market movement like an oscillator. nevertheless, the Bradley is a very popular model to this day, and many financial astrologers still use it as a backbone to get an overall picture of what the market is doing or what it made do in the future.

Quoted from:
Larry Pesavento & Shane Smoleny (2015) - A Trader’s Guide To Financial Astrology.

 

ooo0ooo

 

Also consider:

New Moons typically mark beginnings of cycles, and Full Moons mark completions. 

In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are tops. 

In bear markets, New Moons are tops, and Full Moons are bottoms. 

More often than not, stocks will rise from around the 7th to around the 14th calendar day of a month, 

fall from the 14th to the 20th, and rise from the 20th to the 25th.

Major Red News Releases (NFP, CPI, PPI, PMI, FOMC etc.) and Options Expiration Dates (especially Quad and Triple Witching)

may delay or cancel typical cyclical market behavior and astro signals.

S&P 500 Cycles Forecast | Sergey Ivanov

S&P 500 / ES Major High = ± Sep 08-11, 2023 (Fri-Mon)

 

 

The 2nd half of this week [Sep 04-08] is going to be bullish for the index. Talking about the most probable date for expected (at daily time frame) bearish turn we may rely on the Moon cycle at M30 chart. If today's drop is considerable then a local top is was already set. The next date for local high will be reached by the end of Friday [Sep 08] or the very beginning of the next Monday [Sep 11].

Reference:
Sergey Ivanov (Sep 02, Sep 04 & Sep 05, 2023) - Forecasts calculated with Timing Solution software; published on Telegram.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Self-Similarity Charts for 2023 | Sergey Ivanov

1938 vs 2023

Highest Similarity Ratio between 1963 and 2023 - Projected Low of the Year is February 22 (Wed)

1966 vs 2023

1973 vs 2023

1982 vs 2023

2003 vs 2023

2009 vs 2023

Source:

Sergey Ivanov (Jan 24, 2023) via his free Timing Solution Forecasts Telegram Channel. 

See also:

Sergey Tarassov (2003) - Back Testing of Similarity Module.

Sergey Tarassov - Timing Solution Software.

Sergey Tarassov - Timing Solution Community Group.

Bearish Forecast for US Stocks Indexes | Sergey Ivanov

Sergey Ivanov (Nov 30, 2022) - We have two kind of very effective projection lines for the indexes: Self-Similarity vs 2008 year and Fixed Cycles Composite Line. As you can see they suggest an extreme bearish scenario for the next 1.5 months. If it already started or we have some additional expected bullish bounces is answered by temporal cycles projection lines. 

 

 

Source:
Sergey Ivanov (Nov 30, 2022) via his free Timing Solution Forecasts Telegram Channel  

See also:

Sergey Tarassov - Timing Solution Software

Sergey Tarassov - Timing Solution Community Group

Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War | Max Tension in March 2022

 

André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War is comprised of the degree distances of all planets between Jupiter and Pluto. When the graph is at its low point, there are one or more conjunctions between any planets from Jupiter to Pluto. Conjunctions tend to focus on turbulence. When the graph ascends, it is telling that we are on the way to planetary opposition within any two of the five planets involved. The low points reflect conditions of international, economic and social tension, conflict and war. Peaks typically forecast the opposite. Barbault's Index will print the the lowest point of the cyclical index in this entire 21st century by mid March 2022 .

 

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution. More on Barbault's Cyclic Index Here

S&P 500 Index vs Division of Solar Year 2020 starting from Earth’s Perihelion

32nd Harmonic of Solar Year 2020 | W.D. Gann's Natural Trading Days:

[ 1 Solar Year = 360 Degrees of the Sun's Geocentric Longitude / 32 = 11.25 Decimal Degrees ]

 
2019 Dec 02 (Mon) 07:39:34 = 326.25
2019 Dec 13 (Fri) 13:31:43 = 337.5
2019 Dec 24 (Tue) 18:40:56 = 348.75
2020 Jan 05 (Sun) 01:47:00 = 360 = Earth's Perihelion
2020 Jan 16 (Thu) 04:24:47 = 11.25
2020 Jan 27 (Mon) 09:35:44 = 22.5
2020 Feb 07 (Fri) 15:33:59 = 33.75
2020 Feb 18 (Tue) 06:45:01 = 45
2020 Feb 29 (Sat) 14:52:49 = 56.25
2020 Mar 12 (Thu) 00:40:14 = 67.5
2020 Mar 23 (Mon) 12:04:20 = 78.75
2020 Apr 03 (Fri) 09:00:56 = 90
2020 Apr 15 (Wed) 00:03:59 = 101.25
2020 Apr 26 (Sun) 16:47:04 = 112.5
2020 May 08 (Fri) 11:20:33 = 123.75
2020 May 19 (Tue) 14:47:34 = 135
2020 May 31 (Sun) 12:02:01 = 146.25
2020 Jun 12 (Fri) 10:27:23 = 157.5
2020 Jun 24 (Wed) 09:24:58 = 168.75
2020 Jul 05 (Sun) 16:01:47 = 180 = Earth's Aphelion
2020 Jul 17 (Fri) 15:21:55 = 191.25
2020 Jul 29 (Wed) 14:12:04 = 202.5
2020 Aug 10 (Mon) 12:24:10 = 213.75
2020 Aug 21 (Fri) 16:44:08 = 225
2020 Sep 02 (Wed) 12:28:40 = 236.25
2020 Sep 14 (Mon) 06:37:08 = 247.5
2020 Sep 25 (Fri) 22:55:17 = 258.75
2020 Oct 06 (Tue) 21:19:28 = 270
2020 Oct 18 (Sun) 10:04:18 = 281.25
2020 Oct 29 (Thu) 21:05:34 = 292.5
2020 Nov 10 (Tue) 06:30:12 = 303.75
2020 Nov 20 (Fri) 22:28:34 = 315
2020 Dec 02 (Wed) 05:16:15 = 326.25
2020 Dec 13 (Sun) 11:02:37 = 337.5
2020 Dec 24 (Thu) 16:08:14 = 348.75
2021 Jan 02 (Sat) 07:50:00 = 360 = Earth's Perihelion

Previous Year HERE

S&P 500 Index vs Division of Solar Year starting from Earth’s Perihelion

32nd Harmonic of Solar Year 2019 | W.D. Gann's Natural Trading Days:
[ 1 Solar Year = 360 Degrees of the Sun's Geocentric Longitude / 32 = 11.25 Decimal Degrees ]
2019 Jan 03 (Thu) 12:19 [EST] = Earth's Perihelion
2019 Jan 14 (Mon) 17:41 = 11.25
2019 Jan 25 (Fri) 19:33 = 22.50
2019 Feb 06 (Wed) 01:22 = 33.75
2019 Feb 16 (Sat) 16:22 = 45.00
2019 Feb 28 (Thu) 00:30 = 56.25
2019 Mar 11 (Mon) 10:57 = 67.50
2019 Mar 22 (Fri) 22:14 = 78.75
2019 Apr 02 (Tue) 19:01 = 90.00
2019 Apr 14 (Sun) 09:42 = 101.25
2019 Apr 26 (Fri) 02:21 = 112.50
2019 May 07 (Tue) 20:36 = 123.75
2019 May 18 (Sat) 23:54 = 135.00
2019 May 30 (Thu) 21:04 = 146.25
2019 Jun 11 (Tue) 19:14 = 157.50
2019 Jun 23 (Sun) 18:17 = 168.75
2019 Jul 04 (Thu) 18:10 = 180.00 = Earth's Aphelion
2019 Jul 17 (Wed) 00:09 = 191.25
2019 Jul 28 (Sun) 23:09 = 202.50
2019 Aug 09 (Fri) 21:20 = 213.75
2019 Aug 21 (Wed) 01:59 = 225.00
2019 Sep 01 (Sun) 21:49 = 236.25
2019 Sep 13 (Fri) 16:10 = 247.50
2019 Sep 25 (Wed) 08:48 = 258.75
2019 Oct 06 (Sun) 07:16 = 270.00
2019 Oct 17 (Thu) 20:22 = 281.25
2019 Oct 29 (Tue) 07:33 = 292.50
2019 Nov 09 (Sat) 16:05 = 303.75
2019 Nov 20 (Wed) 08:20 = 315.00
2019 Dec 01 (Sun) 15:07 = 326.25
2019 Dec 12 (Thu) 21:02 = 337.50
2019 Dec 24 (Tue) 02:14 = 348.75
2020 Jan 05 (Sun) 02:21 = 360 = Earth's Perihelion

S&P 500 Index vs Average Annual Cycle | Turning Points 2019

The above chart shows the Average Annual Cycle based on S&P 500 Index close values from 1950 to 2018.
Upcoming important turning points in this cycle during 2019 are:
Jan 07 (Mon) High
Jan 14 (Mon) Low
Jan 25 (Fri) High
Feb 09 (Sat) Low
Mar 12 (Tue) High
Mar 29 (Thu) Low
Jun 08 (Sat) High
Jul 01 (Mon) Low
Aug 29 (Thu) High
Oct 28 (Mon) Low
Nov 08 (Fri) High
Dec 23 (Mon) Low