Showing posts with label DJIA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DJIA. Show all posts

Monday, May 4, 2026

Hedge Funds Dump Tech, While Retail Piles Into QQQ | Jason Goepfert

Hedge funds sold US tech stocks at the second-most aggressive pace in a decade (largest net selling since 2021), according to Goldman Sachs Prime Book data.

Everybody back in the pool: 21-day sum of daily fund flows in QQQ.
 
This institutional selling coincides with strong retail buying, as rolling 21-day QQQ fund flows hit the third-largest inflow in recent years—even as Nasdaq 100 prices rise. A classic smart money versus retail divergence. May 7 (Thu) is the scheduled ITD #5 peak (± 4 CD) in US stocks.
 

Goldman Sachs Prime Book, as of April 30: Go with the flow.
The GS Prime Book reflects aggregated activity from Goldman's prime brokerage clients (a large but not complete slice of the hedge fund universe), so it's directional but not exhaustive. Similar insights sometimes come from JPMorgan or Morgan Stanley prime services reports. Goepfert specializes in sentiment indicators, including fund flows, options activity, positioning (e.g., hedge funds via prime broker data like Goldman Sachs), and retail vs. institutional behavior (e.g. Dump Money Confidence vs. Smart Money Confidence). Access requires a subscription, but he often shares highlights on X.

As of May 1, Dumb Money Confidence was very optimistic,
while Smart Money Confidence was neutral. 

Friday, May 1, 2026

May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

The S&P 500 has posted gains during the first three trading days of May in 19 of the past 28 years.
 
Early May Strength Turns to Chop Until Late Month Pop.

Weakness often emerges around the May 6 (Wed),  May 8-12 (Fri-Tue), and after May 18 (Mon). The final four days usually post solid gains (May 26-29, Tue-Fri), though the last day of May has been notably weak.
 
In midterm election years, May typically starts higher but turns broadly weak by May 5 (Tue), with softness persisting through most of the month.
 
 
 
S&P 500 Average Performance and Hit Rate per Day (1928-2024). 
   
In the
Four-Year Presidential Cycle
, May of midterm election years has historically been the weakest,
with all major indices avg. declines: DJIA –0.08%, S&P 500 –0.63%, NASDAQ –0.76%, NYSE –1.19%.
  
His
torical S&P 500 data shows
 May averages just 0.38% gain since 1950 overall, but improves to 2.58% average and
9-1 record in the 10 years with April gains of 5% or higher, including the last seven straight positives post-1985. 
 
When the S&P 500 closes April at a new all-time monthly high since the early 1960s (17 instances shown), 
the remainder of the calendar year has been positive 100% of the time with an average gain of +10.35%. 
 
 

Monday, April 27, 2026

S&P 500 Dumb Money Confidence Enters Extreme Optimism | Alex Krainer

S&P 500 Dump Money Confidence (red line) has risen above 70%, signaling extreme optimism historically linked to consolidations or pullbacks. Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed Index sits at 67 (Greed), and Smart Money Confidence (blue line) stays perfectly neutral at 50% ahead of this week's major news, rates, and earnings.

 
This is not a bearish crash call but a contrarian warning. Dumb Money Confidence above 70% often marks trend exhaustion—leading to sideways trading, 5–10% pullbacks, or simply pauses before quarterly earnings. These sentiment indicators are statistically reliable over decades but can't time exact market tops. 

Monday, April 20, 2026

DJIA 2026 vs Top Three Midterm Correlated Years Since 1886 | @Fiorente2

Plotting all 35 midterm-election years for the DJIA since 1886, the spread of outcomes is enormous: In difficult midterm years, the DJIA has fallen by as much as 25% (1966), while in stronger years it has gained up to 45%. The average of ±2% is likely the most realistic expectation right now, given the current environment.
 
Chart 1: DJIA 2026 versus the Top Three Midterm Correlated Years:
1898 = approx. +20% (correlation 0.764)1926 = ended the year flat (0.716)1966 = approx. -20% (0.826)

However, to get a sharper view, the three midterm years with the highest correlation to 2026 DJIA performance (from January through last week) were selected and charted: 1966, 1926, and 1898 (Chart 1).  
  • 1966 has the strongest correlation (0.826).  
  • 1898 (0.764) is the bullish outlier: if 2026 follows that path, the market could go bazooka from here.  
  • 1926 (0.716) sits in the middle, and curiously, its path aligns with the average of the top three.
 
Chart 2: DJIA 2026 vs 1966 and Top Three Composites. In 1966, the DJIA printed its yearly low in early October.
  
Each of these years carries its own resonance: 
  • In 1898, the US was just emerging as a global power through victory in the Spanish-American War. 
  • In 1926, an industrial revolution was reshaping the economy. 
  • In 1966, tariffs, war, inflation, and a punishing midterm election defined the landscape.  
The bias points toward 1966 (Chart 2): The correlation is the strongest, and the themes are too close to ignore: tariffs, a costly overseas conflict with no clear exit, inflation concerns, and a midterm election that may punish the incumbent party. 
 
 
Berkshire Hathaway's cash position has risen to a record above $370B, underscoring a scarcity of attractive valuations and ongoing reductions in holdings such as Apple. Warren Buffett has described recent market pullbacks as modest relative to historical downturns, drawing parallels to the elevated cash levels he maintained ahead of the 1999 dot-com crash and the 2007 financial crisis—periods when major equities ultimately fell by 80–90%.
See also:

Thursday, April 16, 2026

S&P 500 After Rapid 10% Gains: +17% Avg One-Year Return | Alex Krainer

Historical S&P 500 data shows that sharp 10% rallies over a 10-day span tend to exhibit strong follow-through. On average, returns have been approximately +0.6% after one week, +2.5% after one month, and +17% over the following year.

Rapid 10%+ bounces in the S&P 500 (weekly candles), 1980 to 2026.

A review of the weekly S&P 500 chart from 1980 to 2026 highlights multiple instances of these "rapid +10% bounces," marked by green and red arrows. In most cases, these moves were followed by continued upside, though there were notable exceptions—such as the period around 2000.
 
Alex Krainer argues that the current setup differs meaningfully from the 2000  episode. He notes the absence of broadly synchronized overbought conditions among megacap stocks today, and emphasizes that the more significant declines in 2000 occurred only after the index had already fallen below its 40-week moving average.
 
S&P 500 RSI readings above 70 have led to pullbacks in 8 of the last 10 cases over two years, with the other two resulting in flat consolidation. The daily chart (May 2024–April 2026) marks these signals with red arrows for pullbacks and one green arrow, alongside recent price action near 7,000. This suggests an 80% likelihood of a near-term pullback, though prior corrections since the 2025 rally have been relatively mild.
 

Jeffrey Hirsch notes that the S&P 500's 7.57% gain in the first 10 trading days of April 2026 ranks as the second-strongest start to April since 1950.

Gains averaged +10.8% for the rest of the year, with full-year returns positive in 91.7% of cases (+16.2% avg.).

Historically, such powerful early-April momentum has been a bullish signal: in 20 of 24 comparable cases (83.3%), the market delivered further gains over the remainder of the year, with an average advance of +10.8%. Full-year returns were positive in 22 of those 24 instances (91.7%), averaging +16.2%. Hirsch’s data also segments April starts into performance tiers, with 2026 firmly in the top group—where subsequent returns have consistently outpaced those seen in the middle and bottom tiers.

Friday, April 10, 2026

DJIA Up in 77.3% of April OpEx Weeks Since 1982 | Jeff Hirsch

April's monthly option expiration is generally bullish across the board, with respectable gains on the last day of the week, the entire week, and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA has advanced 28 times in 44 years on monthly expiration day, with an average gain of 0.20%. 
 
DJIA has risen in 34 of the past 44 April options-expiration weeks (next week), with an average gain of 1.00%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also show strong seasonality, averaging weekly gains of 0.77% and 0.76%. Losses in 2022, 2024, and 2025 have tempered the longer-term averages. 
 DJIA Up in 77.3% of April OpEx Weeks since 1982.
 
 
S&P 500 Up in 65.9% of April OpEx Weeks since 1982.

S&P 500 has a similar record, also with 28 advances and an average advance of 0.15% on monthly expiration day. Monthly expiration day was trending solidly bullish after four or five declines from 2014 to 2018, but took hits in the 2022 bear market, 2024, and in 2025 due to Liberation Day tariff uncertainty.

NASDAQ Up in 63.6% of April OpEx Weeks since 1982.
 
Monthly expiration week also has a bullish track record over the past 44 years. Average weekly gains are +1.00% for DJIA, +0.77% for S&P 500, and +0.76% for NASDAQ. The bullish bias of April monthly expiration also persists during the week after, although average gains have not been as strong, with selling pressure rising (from 2018 to 2022). However, strength has returned since 2023. NASDAQ jumped 6.73% in the week after in 2025.
 April seasonality strong: 2nd-best month for DJIA and S&P; 4th for NASDAQ.
 April 2026 started solidly (+0.52% DJIA, +1.98% NASDAQ) despite geopolitical tension, rising energy costs, April 15 tax deadline.
 Historically, early April outperformed—since 1994, strength shifted to second half.
 Post–April 15 stronger (especially NASDAQ, Russell 2000).
See also:

Friday, March 27, 2026

Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup | Alex Krainer


A contrarian signal is flashing for the S&P 500 near 6,477. Smart Money Confidence (blue line) is climbing to 0.6 while Dumb Money Confidence (red line) drops to 0.4. This split occurs amid Extreme Fear, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index at 18, despite broader bearish technicals and geopolitical volatility.

» Smart money confidence is growing while dumb money confidence falls. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index has hit
Extreme Fear. Yes, the setups across the board look ugly, but chasing shorts here is riskier than remaining patient. «
 
Historically, this exact divergence—rising institutional confidence against falling retail optimism—has preceded S&P 500 rebounds roughly 70% of the time, per SentimenTrader backtests. It suggests the current sell-off may be exhausted, offering a high-probability upside reversal once fear peaks.

 
March 27, 2026 Update: This level of Extreme Fear (10) has been seen at previous bottoms, including those that preceded bear market rallies in 2022. The shortest bounce before lower lows occurred in 2025. A bullish divergence is now appearing, which validates the thesis. 
 
 

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Over the past 21 years (solid lines in the chart below), April has exhibited a pattern of steady gains starting around April 7 (Tue)(Trading Day 5) and continuing through the end of the month, with only minor fluctuations along the way. Overall, it has generally finished positive across the board.
 

Midterm election years since 1950 (dashed lines) show strength from April 7 (Tue) through mid-April only, followed by choppy trading that typically ends the month flat or in negative territory.
 
Reference:
 
S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.
  

Friday, March 20, 2026

US Stock Indexes Trigger Rare March-December Low Indicator | Jeff Hirsch

Originated by Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst in the 1970s, the December Low Indicator is based on the Dow closing below its December closing low in the first quarter of the New Year. DJIA’s December closing low was 47,289.33 on 12/1/2025.
  
 
The indicator also applies to the S&P 500, which closed below its December closing low of 6,721.43 (set on 12/17/2025). Historically, years when the S&P 500’s December Low Indicator was breached alongside a down January Barometer were weaker years. When the January Barometer was positive and the December Low was crossed, years tended to be stronger — which is the situation we find ourselves in today.
 
When the market has closed below its December closing low in the first quarter of the year, the market has dropped, on average, another 13.5% on the S&P 500 and 10.9% for the DJIA from the trigger point. Now that the December Low Indicator has been triggered on both the DJIA and S&P 500, some caution is in order.
 
Why This March Trigger Is Rare
Of the 36 December Low Indicator triggers on the S&P 500, this is only the fourth to occur in March, and the sixth among the 39 DJIA triggers. We’ve broken out the S&P DLI triggers by month in the accompanying tables above.
 
It’s not surprising that most January and February triggers were accompanied by a down January Barometer. Whereas all four March DLI triggers — including yesterday’s — came in years when the January Barometer was positive.

Here’s how the three trigger months compare historically:

  • January triggers (24 occurrences): Average further decline of 12.92%; full year up 14 of 24 times, average gain of 1.30%
  • February triggers (8 occurrences): The worst group — average further decline of 17.26%; down 6 of 8 full years, average loss of 8.13%
  • March triggers (3 previous occurrences): The mildest — average further decline of 8.12%; one year up, two down, average full-year loss of 3.70%
The historical data suggests March triggers carry less downside risk than those in January or February — a meaningful distinction given today’s trigger.
 
The January Barometer Still Points Higher
When the S&P 500 January Barometer is positive — as it was this year — the full year is up 41 of 46 years (89.1% of the time) for an average gain of 16.95%. The next 11 months are up 87.0% of the time for an average gain of 12.24%.
 
When it’s down, the year is up only 50% of the time with an average loss of 1.75%, and the next 11 months average a paltry 2.07% gain.
 
Bottom Line
While the current situation suggests the market is likely to go lower in the near term, the positive January Barometer and the broader fundamental and macro backdrop remain supportive. When the indexes and your spirits are down and contrary sentiment indicators reach extreme bearish levels — a VIX above 40, Investors Intelligence Bearish % exceeding Bullish % — that’s historically the point at which the market turns higher again. Stay cautious in the near term, but keep the longer-term odds in perspective.
 
Reference:
 
What happens once the SPY closes down four weeks in a row.
 
What happens once the weekly RSI(2) closes at 5 or below. 

See also:

Monday, March 16, 2026

The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited | @Fiorente2

Multiple long-term cyclical frameworks suggest that US equity markets may be entering a period of heightened volatility and potential trend transition during 2026. The convergence of several key cycles—including the 60-year cycle, the 22-year cycle, and planetary timing structures involving Saturn, Venus–Uranus, and Jupiter–Saturn—points to a series of possible inflection points beginning in March 2026 and extending through mid-year. Measured from the April 2025 market low, these cycles begin to cluster between March and July 2026. While the February 2026 highs across several indices may represent an important crest, the possibility of cycle inversions or secondary tops remains open.
 
Long-Term Cycles
A central structural reference is the 60-year cycle measured from the April 2025 low. Historically, this cycle has corresponded with major turning points in US equity markets. Notably, the NYSE Composite reached a comparable high exactly 60 years earlier. However, the present market has not yet produced the decline typically associated with this cycle. Instead, market behavior may be following the 22-year cycle more closely, suggesting a gradual and phased decline that could extend into mid-August 2026.

Chart 1
NYSE Composite and Long-Term Cycles: Interaction between the 
60-year and 22-year cycles measured from the April 2025 market low.

An earlier trough may occur near the end of June, corresponding with approximately 15 degrees of heliocentric Saturn movement measured from the April 7, 2025 low. A late-June to early-July 2026 trough would also coincide with three Venus–Uranus heliocentric oppositions projected from the April 2025 bottom. Within this framework, a shorter-term inflection point appears around March 13, 2026, where a temporary rebound may occur.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
The DJIA exhibits several notable cyclical alignments. The index reached a peak in early February that squared out along a Saturn 1×2 timing line, aligning closely with the equivalent date 60 years earlier. In addition, the heliocentric synodic cycle of Venus and Uranus has tracked recent turning points with remarkable precision, with several inflection points occurring within only a few days of major price reversals.

Chart 2
DJIA Saturn Timing and Venus–Uranus Synodic Cycle: Alignment of Saturn timing
lines and Venus–Uranus heliocentric aspects with recent market turning points.
 
S&P 500
Applying Saturn timing lines derived from prior highs and lows to the S&P 500—combined with the Venus–Uranus synodic cycle—suggests the index may be declining toward a potential trough around mid-March 2026 during an initial corrective phase. This move could represent the first leg of a broader cyclical decline associated with either the 60-year or 22-year cycle. Historically, these cycles often move in similar directional phases for extended periods, reinforcing the prevailing market trend.

Chart 3
S&P 500 Cyclical Timing Structure: Saturn timing lines and the Venus–Uranus
synodic cycle suggest a possible corrective phase developing in early 2026.

Nasdaq Composite
Because the Nasdaq Composite did not exist 60 years ago, the analysis relies primarily on the 22-year cycle. A Saturn planetary fan projected from the January high provides a framework for estimating potential downside trajectories should the current downtrend continue. While the 60-year cycle likely influences the broader market environment, its historical behavior cannot be directly evaluated for the Nasdaq. The Venus–Uranus heliocentric synodic cycle projected from the April 2025 low nevertheless identifies several well-defined inflection points that align closely with recent price movements.

Chart 4
Nasdaq Composite with Saturn Planetary Fan: Potential trend pathways
using Saturn planetary fan geometry and Venus–Uranus timing.

Historical Analogue: 1966 vs. 2026
A striking historical comparison can be observed when examining the 1966 market cycle. In 1966, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a peak near 1,000 on February 9 and subsequently declined to approximately 500 by October 10. Overlaying the current 2026 decline from the February 9 peak onto the 1966 pattern reveals a broadly similar percentage trajectory thus far. While historical analogues should be treated cautiously, the comparison provides a useful framework for evaluating the potential magnitude of the present correction.

Chart 5
DJIA Historical Comparison: 1966 vs. 2026. Overlay analysis shows
similarities between the 1966 decline and the current market structure.

Planetary Time Clusters
Market volatility often increases when multiple planetary geometries and transit aspects occur within a narrow time window. The chart below aggregates cumulative hard aspects (0°, 90°, and 180°) of planetary transits together with major planetary geometries. These elements form Time Cycle Clusters, which historically correspond with periods of heightened volatility and increased market activity.

Chart 6 — DJIA and Planetary Time Cycle Clusters: Periods historically associated with elevated market volatility.


Jupiter–Saturn Structural Cycle
Another important framework is the long-term Jupiter–Saturn cycle. Projecting three Jupiter–Saturn cycles forward from the October 1966 market low produces an alignment in May 2026 corresponding with the original 1966 trough. This alignment could represent either a high or a low. However, because the second Jupiter–Saturn cycle corresponded with a market peak, the probability may favor a cyclical trough around May 2026.

Chart 7
DJIA Jupiter–Saturn Cycle Projection: The chart projects three full Jupiter–Saturn cycles
forward from the October 1966 market low, resulting in a precise alignment marked in May 2026 
that corresponds to the original 1966 trough.
 
The Jupiter–Saturn synodic cycle measured from the October 10, 1966 low—using 90-degree increments—aligned closely with the 2007 market peak, occurring just 13 days before the October 10, 2007 high. Extending the third segment of this cycle projects forward to May 20, 2026, which occurs 18 years and 7 months after the 2007 peak. This represents 1080 degrees of Jupiter–Saturn motion, or three full cycles measured from the October 1966 low.

Since 2018, several major market crests—including those in 2021, early 2022, and February 2026—have aligned with a Jupiter planetary line drawn through these peaks. If this pattern continues, the February 2026 high may represent an interim crest similar to the 2022 peak, with a potential trough forming between April and July 2026.
 The current decline may represent only the initial phase of a broader corrective structure similar to the 1966 market decline, although confirmation remains premature.
Macroeconomic conditions remain relatively resilient, and a rapid improvement in geopolitical conditions could quickly restore bullish sentiment. Such developments could produce a secondary market top within the April–June window. At present, the balance of cyclical evidence suggests that the February 2026 peak may represent an important market crest. However, as with all cyclical models, inversions remain possible and should be considered within the broader analytical framework.
Reference: