December Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Markets | Jeff Hirsch

December trading is traditionally shaped by holiday sentiment, with a general buying bias, though early-month markets can be choppy due to tax-loss selling and year-end adjustments. Historically, the first trading day of December has been bearish for the DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 over the past 21 years, with the Russell 2000 seeing even sharper declines.

Choppy First Half, Then Year-End Rally.

 

The first half of December is typically choppy, with early gains often fading into mid-month. Then holiday tailwinds usually begin to dominate, lifting the major indexes. A brief consolidation in the Santa Claus rally around December 25 is common, even as the market continues to push toward higher prices into year-end.

 

Reference: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 25, 2025) - Typical December — Choppy First Half Then Yearend Rally.

 

S&P 500 Average Daily Performance and Hit Rate (%) (1928-2024). 

2025 S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Pattern since 1949.

  

 2026 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern since 1949.

 

Nicholas D. Savino: S&P 500 Forecast for December 2025.

 

See also:
Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Effect, and Trend for the Year Ahead.

November Post-Election Year Seasonality: Best Month of the Year | Jeff Hirsch

November is typically a bullish month, with twelve bullish days based on the S&P 500. This includes a streak of six consecutive bullish days starting on the first trading day (Nov 3 (Mon)). Although historically a bullish month, November does have its weak points.

November Performance of US Stock Indices: Last 21-Years (2004-2024) and Post-Election Years (1950-2021).

The DJIA and Russell 2000 tend to exhibit the greatest strength at the beginning and end of the month. The Russell 2000, in particular, is notably bearish on its 12th trading day (Nov 18 (Tue)); the small-cap benchmark has risen just eleven times in the past 41 years (since 1984). On this day, the Russell 2000's average decline is 0.41%.

Recent weakness around Thanksgiving (Nov 27 (Thu)) has shifted the strength of the DJIA and S&P 500 to align more closely with that of the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the majority of bullish days occurring at the start and end of the month. The best way to trade around Thanksgiving is to go long on any weakness before the holiday and exit into strength just before or after.
 

Reference: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 30, 2025) - November Best Month of the Year for DJIA & S&P 500.

 

Post-Election Year most bullish in 4-Year Presidential Cycle since 1985.

 

S&P 500 Average Daily Performance and Hit Rate (%) (1928-2024). 

 

S&P 500 Seasonailty First and Last Half of each Month (1928-2024). 

 

S&P 500: We are now in the final phase of this rally. 

 

SPX ES-minis: Down (= 80D peak?).

  

 Gold: 80-day cycle trough zone. Up Reversal?

 

Bitcoin: Heading towards the next 80-day cycle trough. Down.

 

See also:

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

J.M. Hurst’s "Principle of Commonality": One Divine Force | Ahmed Farghaly

The "Cyclic Principles" introduced by J.M. Hurst in the 1970s are universal, persisting since the dawn of time. Among these, the "Principle of Commonality" stands out, as it demonstrates that the cycles of disparate financial instruments—and, by extension, human activity—are synchronized by a singular, overarching divine force. Troughs of unrelated instruments occur almost simultaneously, while divergences in peaks or amplitudes stem from local or company-specific factors rather than the underlying rhythm.

» The Principle of Commonality assures us that identical specific and forecastable wave processes occur in all negotiable equities of all types on all markets of the world. So all-pervasive is this Principle that it is only the Principle of Variation that prevents the shape of price histories of all equities from being nearly identical. And, as we have seen, it is the interaction of fundamental events and situations with cyclicality, causing wave amplitude change, that is responsible for the Principle of Variation. 

» A Commonality Phasing Model is, in effect, a large measuring strip used to preserve wave phase and period information from the analysis of two or more equities. Only the most certain of the wave trough locations are used from any given analysis. As results are added from analysis of more and more equities, gaps are filled in and a commonality distribution range is established for each wave trough position in time. A commonality phasing model can be maintained continuously, thus recording the most definitive evidence of wave phase and period from all analyses conducted. «

The Principle of Commonality, J.M. Hurst, 1973. 

Hurst emphasized its practical value: understanding one cycle illuminates others, with minor deviations—his third type of the Principle of Variation [each market’s active cycles deviate from the nominal model’s average periods, and these deviations differ across instruments and times]—leaving global synchronization intact as dictated by the Principle of Commonality. Empirical studies across unrelated assets, commodities, equities, and economic time series confirm that the Principle of Commonality governs beyond any single economy, reflecting a universal rhythm and mirroring humanity’s progression from polytheism toward recognition of a monotheistic, single guiding influence.

 

“And your God is one God. There is no deity except Him, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.”
The Holy Qur’an, Surah Al-Baqarah (The Cow), 2:163.

  

The persistence of cyclical waves through recorded history suggests that Commonality is trans-historical. Data since around 1000 AD reveal continuous alignment, and extrapolation indicates these forces existed long before formal record-keeping. Historical observation supports this: human advancement in the Stone and Bronze Ages unfolded in temporal synchrony across disconnected populations, indicating the operation of the consistent underlying divine force.

 

“For every nation is an appointed term; when their term is reached,

neither can they delay it nor can they advance it an hour or a moment.” 

The Holy Qur’an, Surah Al-A‘rāf (The Heights), 7:34. 

 

While troughs—the beginnings and endings of cycles—are closely aligned across nations, local expression varies. Peaks may occur at different times, amplitudes differ, and local fundamentals shape trajectories. The Principle of Commonality thus governs temporal alignment of critical points while allowing variation in the wave’s characteristics.
 

Chart 1: Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul; magenta) versus Dow Jones (DJIA) from 2000 to 2025.

Empirical evidence validates these assertions. The Kuznets Swing (an 18-year cycle) peaked in 2006 in Saudi Arabia and in 2019 in the United States, yet both began in March 2003 and bottomed in the global low of March 2020. Minor discrepancies among sub-waves reflect local variation but do not disrupt the synchronization of primary troughs (see chart 1 above).

 

 Chart 2.1: Commodity Price Index and S&P 500, both from 1800 to 2025.

 

Chart 2.2: S&P 500 (red) versus Commodity Price Index from 1800 to 2025.

Longer-term studies, including continuous commodity prices and the S&P 500 since 1800, show that over 90 percent of cyclical troughs align temporally across instruments (see charts 2.1 and 2.2 above). 

Chart 3: Soybeans (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 2011 to 2025.

Chart 4: German Dax (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 1994 to 2003.

Even unrelated markets, such as soybean prices and the Saudi stock index (Tadawul), demonstrate strong temporal correspondence (chart 3 above). Comparisons of the German DAX and Saudi index (chart 4 above) reveal synchronization across multiple cyclic levels—the 18-month, 54-month (Kitchin), and 9-year (Juglar) waves—further confirming a unifying global force.

 

 Prophet Daniel (Daniyal) in the Lions' Den (Daniel 6:16–23, KJV).

“And all the inhabitants of the earth are reputed as nothing: and He doeth according to His will

in the army of heaven, and among the inhabitants of the earth: and none can stay His hand,

or say unto Him, What doest Thou?” The Holy Bible, Daniel 4:35 (KJV). 

 

Hurst’s Principle of Commonality thus affirms a single, synchronized force governing the timing of major and minor cycles, while local factors shape amplitude and peak positions. This robust alignment, persistent across centuries and diverse instruments, confirms that cyclical patterns are not random but manifestations of an underlying order.

“Is He not best who begins creation and then repeats it, and who provides for you from the heaven

and the earth? Is there a deity with Allah? Say, ‘Produce your proof, if you should be truthful.’” 

The Holy Qur’an, Surah An-Naml (The Ants), 27:64.

 

Today, we can confidently state that in this article we have presented our proof of a mysterious, dominant, and single force behind almost all fluctuations in human affairs. We can only ask God to grant us wisdom to recognize His design and join us with the righteous after we fulfill our appointed term in harmony with His will.

 

Reference:
Ahmed Farghaly (October 24, 2025) - The Principle of Commonality: The Single Underlying Force of God.

 

See also:
J.M. Hurst (1973) - Cycles Course - Cyclitec Services Training Course.

 Ernest Emery Richards (2017) - The Geometry of Infinite Mind and Living Systems.

Loai M. Dabbour (2012) - Harmony of Being: Geometry in Man, Nature, and Cosmos.  

Joachim-Ernst Berendt (1987) - The "Law of the Octave": The World Is Sound. 

Plato (360 BCE) - The Same, The Other, and The Essence: Theology of Arithmetic. 
Ahmed Farghaly (October 18, 2025) - Long-Term Commodity Cycles: Unraveling the Big Picture.

The Dow-to-Gold Ratio (DJI/XAU) Collapses: Get Ready for Tangible Assets

The Dow-to-Gold ratio (DJI/XAU) measures how many ounces of gold are needed to buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is used as a long-term indicator of monetary confidence, where a falling ratio shows a shift in real value away from paper assets (cash, bonds, stocks) towards tangible assets like gold, silver, platinum, palladium, rhodium, copper (metals), oil, lumber (energy), and real estate.

Dow-to-Gold Ratio (DJI/XAU) from 1897 to 2025 (quarterly bars, log scale; chart credit: Francis Hunt.)

 Although the Dow has gained roughly 250% in dollar terms since 2000, by Q4 2025, 

its real value has declined by about two-thirds when measured in gold.

 

Over the last century, the Dow-to-Gold ratio has oscillated between periods of equity confidence and monetary stress. In 1929, the ratio peaked at roughly 18.63 before collapsing below 2 during the Great Depression. It reached about 28 in 1966, then fell below 1 in 1980 amid high inflation and currency instability. 

 

Dow-to-Gold Ratio (DJI/XAU) from 1800 to 2020 (quarterly values, log scale).

 
At the 1999–2000 peak, the Dow equaled approximately 45 ounces of gold—its highest in over a century. As of October 2025, the ratio is near 12, a decline of about 73% from that peak. The drop was steep from 2000 to 2011 (reaching a ratio near 6), followed by a rebound to about 20 by 2018, and renewed erosion thereafter. Over that period, gold has outperformed equities in real terms.

 

Dominant 120-Trading Day Cycle (≈174 calendar days) in the daily Gold chart.

 

China is preparing for something.

Unlocking the "Years-Ending-in-5" Market Signal | Jake Bernstein

One of the most reliable patterns I’ve observed in markets appears in years ending in the number five. It is simple: take the January high of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If the market records two consecutive monthly closes above that high, history shows a strong rally often follows into early December or even year-end. This is a purely mechanical setup; without the two closes, the pattern remains dormant.

Detrended Weekly Seasonal Composite Future chart for the S&P 500 from 1942 to 2024.

Looking back, the results are striking. In 1995, the trigger led to a more than twenty percent advance. 1985 produced roughly fifteen percent, 1975 seven to ten percent, and even 1965, after a brief pullback, ended higher by about five percent. Earlier examples include 1955 with fifteen percent, and 1935 and 1945 each with nearly thirty percent rallies. Not every “five” year triggers the setup—as in 2005 and 2015—but when it does, the outcome has consistently favored the bulls.

 Dow Jones (monthly bars), 2025.

» If the market records two consecutive monthly closes above the January high, history shows a strong rally often follows into year-end. This is a purely mechanical setup; without the two closes, the pattern remains dormant. « 

In 2025, we already have one monthly close above the January high [¿?]. If October confirms with a second [¿? would be the third], the trigger will be set. With only November and December remaining, history suggests that these final months could deliver substantial gains, just as in previous “five” years.

Not every “5” year produces a trigger (e.g., 2015, 2005),

but when it does, the outcome has often been significant.

 

The pattern is neither perfect nor guaranteed, but the Dow’s record demonstrates that when it occurs, the probabilities strongly favor a significant year-end advance.

Reference:
Jake Bernstein (October 2, 2025) - Unlocking the Years-Ending-in-5 Market Signal. (video)

Detrended Weekly Seasonal Composite for the S&P 500 from 2001 to 2025.

See also:

Jake Bernstein (2025) - seasonaltrader.com
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 2, 2025) - S&P 500 Year-End Outlook: Strong Seasonal Setup Targets 7100.

Wayne Whaley (September 27, 2025) - S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September.  

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025 | Larry Williams

Current market cycles suggest near-term weakness across the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones. The same pattern that accurately forecasted last April’s rally now points to a pullback. 

 

» Expect weakness in Bitcoin, gold, and stocks in the near term. Not a bear market yet, 

but caution is warranted. Cycles and fundamentals together suggest a pullback is ahead. «

 

The 255-day S&P cycle, which has consistently identified past buy and sell points, indicates we are in a weak phase lasting into spring 2026, with the next major buying opportunity around the turn of the year.

 

 » The S&P has a 255-day cycle. Historically, it has nailed buy and sell points 

remarkably well. Right now, we are in the weak part of that cycle. «

This weakness is not expected to trigger a crash, but rather a corrective phase after a strong run, followed by a probable year-end rally. The 2025 forecast of a bullish trend and March buying opportunity proved accurate; the 2026 outlook projects early weakness, then a recovery.

Fundamentally, stocks are overvalued relative to bonds and gold, historically a precursor to declines. This reinforces caution, even without technical confirmation. 

 

» Yes, maybe some weakness—but nothing like 1929 or 1970. 

So, I wouldn’t jump to Dalio’s conclusions. «

Ray Dalio has warned of an 80-year cycle implying severe turmoil. However, analysis of past instances (1863, 1946) shows mostly sideways markets rather than major collapses. The cycle may suggest weakness but not systemic crisis.

In summary: expect a corrective phase in equities, with parallel declines in gold and Bitcoin, but no imminent bear market. Year-end rally potential remains, and cycles continue to provide reliable foresight.

Reference:
Larry Williams (September 24, 2025)  - Old Dogs, New Tricks: Bitcoin and Gold, and what's next for stocks. (video)

 17:19 - NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones  

20:33 - Stocks Overvalued and 80 Year Cycle?

 

The 13-Week Cycle in Stocks.
 

See also:

Larry Williams (December 24, 2024) - 2025 US Stock Market Outlook: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

 Ray Dalio (April 7, 2025) - Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs.

September Seasonality of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

With Fed scheduled to make an announcement on September 17, the 12th trading day, it appears the market is pulling typical mid-month gains forward.

 Average September Market Performance 204-2024.

 

Once the market gets the interest rate cut it expects, it still may not be enough to avoid historical end-of-Q3 weakness.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, September 9, 2025.  

 

 

 

2025 S&P 500 Equal Weight Cycles Composite (One-Year Seasonal Cycle, 

Four-Year Presidential Cycle, 10-Year Decennial Cycle, 1928-2024), 

Ned Davis Research, August 8, 2025.

 

September in post-election years exhibits a bearish trend with an overall average decline of -1.0% since 1950 and -0.93% from 1928-2024, driven by a -0.36% average in the first ten days and a steeper -1.13% in the last ten, reflecting policy uncertainty and late-month weakness. 

 

Detrended Seasonality Charts.

 
The market often starts with Day 1 showing a bearish tilt, down ~58% of the time since 2008 with an average decline of -0.3% to -0.5%, influenced by low post-Labor Day volume.

Days 2–5 display mixed performance with a slight downward bias due to portfolio rebalancing and "window dressing" by fund managers, while mid-September (Days 6–15) sees amplified losses, with Day 6 at -0.17%, Day 7 at -0.22%, Day 10 at -0.26%, and Day 15 (quadruple witching) at -0.25%, marked by heightened volatility averaging -0.48% in post-election years. 

 

S&P 500 average performance per day and daily percentage hit rate (1928-2024).

This mid-month weakness is tied to market adjustments and quadruple witching dynamics, contributing to a cumulative bearish shift.

 

S&P 500 seasonality first ten sessions and lst ten sessions of the month since 1928.

Late September (Days 16–20) offers a modest 0.2% bounce, though inconsistent and often fading into choppy trading by Days 25–30, which remain neutral to slightly bearish due to end-of-quarter portfolio adjustments. Hit rates drop below 50% mid-to-late month, and a 4.2% standard deviation in early September peaks mid-month, underscoring volatility.