S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis: Next Peaks and Troughs | Ahmed Farghaly

J.M. Hurst's Principle of Commonality suggests that major markets worldwide bottom at approximately the same time. Consequently, my phasing analysis for the S&P 500 is very similar not only to other US stock indices, but also to the CRB index, crude oil, and global equities.

Long-Term Phasing: The 2003 trough initiated a new 54-year Kondratieff cycle, whose first 18-year cycle (a 17.17-year Kuznets swing) concluded with the May 2020 low. This trough was a "straddle to the right," a timing deviation caused by the swift, exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic.

S&P 500 (daily bars) from 1999 to November 2025.

 

The 18-year cycle subdivides into two 9-year cycles. Crucially, the major 2008-2009 decline is considered a "false break" that does not negate the 2003 low. Following 2020, the first 54-month (Kitchin) cycle completed in August 2024, and the S&P 500 is now progressing through the second.

Analog Selection and Projection: The market action preceding the 2008-2009 crisis must be negated as an analog because it was driven by an exogenous factor that broke the 2003 low, a condition entirely absent in the current cyclical environment.

 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from January 2023 to November 2025.

 The projection of the 40-week cycle has a 95% out-of-sample correlation.

 

Lacking the preferred 18-year analog (typically required for a correlation coefficient >0.8), we utilize the 9-year cycle position to project the current 18-month cycle. After synchronizing the 40-week cycle troughs, this model proved highly effective, demonstrating a 95% out-of-sample correlation. Instead of a direct price overlay, the optimal approach is to detrend this projection and apply it to the RSI. This detrended analog shows a high correlation, suggesting a three-swing pattern for the US equity market, which is currently in the anticipated downswing.

Short-Term Outlook: The short-term cyclical position projects an 80-day cycle trough around November 14-16 (Fri-Mon), followed by a rally into early December, before a final selloff into year's end.

 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from June 2024 to November 2025.

Decline into 80-day low around November 14-16 (Fri-Mon); rally to December 8 (Mon) high; 

final decline into an 18-month or 40-week cycle low around December 25 (Thu).

 

Conversely, the more dominant 9-year cycle analog suggests a period of sideways consolidation near current levels. Under this model, new highs are unlikely to be significant, and the market will largely trend sideways until the 18-month cycle trough is established.

 

Reference:

Ahmed Farghaly (November 2, 2025) - SPX Time Cycle Analysis via Economic Waves. (video)

 Ahmed Farghaly (November 2, 2025) - Beyond the Headlines: Navigating US Markets with Long-Term & Short-Term Cycles.

 

FLD Cascade Pattern on XAUUSD chart indicates $3,000/oz target by Q1 2026.

 

Decoding the Next Global Conflict: Commodity Prices Signal Kuznets War-Phase.

J.M. Hurst’s "Principle of Commonality": One Divine Force | Ahmed Farghaly

The "Cyclic Principles" introduced by J.M. Hurst in the 1970s are universal, persisting since the dawn of time. Among these, the "Principle of Commonality" stands out, as it demonstrates that the cycles of disparate financial instruments—and, by extension, human activity—are synchronized by a singular, overarching divine force. Troughs of unrelated instruments occur almost simultaneously, while divergences in peaks or amplitudes stem from local or company-specific factors rather than the underlying rhythm.

» The Principle of Commonality assures us that identical specific and forecastable wave processes occur in all negotiable equities of all types on all markets of the world. So all-pervasive is this Principle that it is only the Principle of Variation that prevents the shape of price histories of all equities from being nearly identical. And, as we have seen, it is the interaction of fundamental events and situations with cyclicality, causing wave amplitude change, that is responsible for the Principle of Variation. 

» A Commonality Phasing Model is, in effect, a large measuring strip used to preserve wave phase and period information from the analysis of two or more equities. Only the most certain of the wave trough locations are used from any given analysis. As results are added from analysis of more and more equities, gaps are filled in and a commonality distribution range is established for each wave trough position in time. A commonality phasing model can be maintained continuously, thus recording the most definitive evidence of wave phase and period from all analyses conducted. «

The Principle of Commonality, J.M. Hurst, 1973. 

Hurst emphasized its practical value: understanding one cycle illuminates others, with minor deviations—his third type of the Principle of Variation [each market’s active cycles deviate from the nominal model’s average periods, and these deviations differ across instruments and times]—leaving global synchronization intact as dictated by the Principle of Commonality. Empirical studies across unrelated assets, commodities, equities, and economic time series confirm that the Principle of Commonality governs beyond any single economy, reflecting a universal rhythm and mirroring humanity’s progression from polytheism toward recognition of a monotheistic, single guiding influence.

 

“And your God is one God. There is no deity except Him, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.”
The Holy Qur’an, Surah Al-Baqarah (The Cow), 2:163.

  

The persistence of cyclical waves through recorded history suggests that Commonality is trans-historical. Data since around 1000 AD reveal continuous alignment, and extrapolation indicates these forces existed long before formal record-keeping. Historical observation supports this: human advancement in the Stone and Bronze Ages unfolded in temporal synchrony across disconnected populations, indicating the operation of the consistent underlying divine force.

 

“For every nation is an appointed term; when their term is reached,

neither can they delay it nor can they advance it an hour or a moment.” 

The Holy Qur’an, Surah Al-A‘rāf (The Heights), 7:34. 

 

While troughs—the beginnings and endings of cycles—are closely aligned across nations, local expression varies. Peaks may occur at different times, amplitudes differ, and local fundamentals shape trajectories. The Principle of Commonality thus governs temporal alignment of critical points while allowing variation in the wave’s characteristics.
 

Chart 1: Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul; magenta) versus Dow Jones (DJIA) from 2000 to 2025.

Empirical evidence validates these assertions. The Kuznets Swing (an 18-year cycle) peaked in 2006 in Saudi Arabia and in 2019 in the United States, yet both began in March 2003 and bottomed in the global low of March 2020. Minor discrepancies among sub-waves reflect local variation but do not disrupt the synchronization of primary troughs (see chart 1 above).

 

 Chart 2.1: Commodity Price Index and S&P 500, both from 1800 to 2025.

 

Chart 2.2: S&P 500 (red) versus Commodity Price Index from 1800 to 2025.

Longer-term studies, including continuous commodity prices and the S&P 500 since 1800, show that over 90 percent of cyclical troughs align temporally across instruments (see charts 2.1 and 2.2 above). 

Chart 3: Soybeans (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 2011 to 2025.

Chart 4: German Dax (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 1994 to 2003.

Even unrelated markets, such as soybean prices and the Saudi stock index (Tadawul), demonstrate strong temporal correspondence (chart 3 above). Comparisons of the German DAX and Saudi index (chart 4 above) reveal synchronization across multiple cyclic levels—the 18-month, 54-month (Kitchin), and 9-year (Juglar) waves—further confirming a unifying global force.

 

 Prophet Daniel (Daniyal) in the Lions' Den (Daniel 6:16–23, KJV).

“And all the inhabitants of the earth are reputed as nothing: and He doeth according to His will

in the army of heaven, and among the inhabitants of the earth: and none can stay His hand,

or say unto Him, What doest Thou?” The Holy Bible, Daniel 4:35 (KJV). 

 

Hurst’s Principle of Commonality thus affirms a single, synchronized force governing the timing of major and minor cycles, while local factors shape amplitude and peak positions. This robust alignment, persistent across centuries and diverse instruments, confirms that cyclical patterns are not random but manifestations of an underlying order.

“Is He not best who begins creation and then repeats it, and who provides for you from the heaven

and the earth? Is there a deity with Allah? Say, ‘Produce your proof, if you should be truthful.’” 

The Holy Qur’an, Surah An-Naml (The Ants), 27:64.

 

Today, we can confidently state that in this article we have presented our proof of a mysterious, dominant, and single force behind almost all fluctuations in human affairs. We can only ask God to grant us wisdom to recognize His design and join us with the righteous after we fulfill our appointed term in harmony with His will.

 

Reference:
Ahmed Farghaly (October 24, 2025) - The Principle of Commonality: The Single Underlying Force of God.

 

See also:
J.M. Hurst (1973) - Cycles Course - Cyclitec Services Training Course.

 Ernest Emery Richards (2017) - The Geometry of Infinite Mind and Living Systems.

Loai M. Dabbour (2012) - Harmony of Being: Geometry in Man, Nature, and Cosmos.  

Joachim-Ernst Berendt (1987) - The "Law of the Octave": The World Is Sound. 

Plato (360 BCE) - The Same, The Other, and The Essence: Theology of Arithmetic. 
Ahmed Farghaly (October 18, 2025) - Long-Term Commodity Cycles: Unraveling the Big Picture.