A Hurst cycles analysis essentially functions as a fairly complex puzzle in which every cycle must fit precisely into place, primarily because the cycle troughs must be synchronized whenever possible. If we were to position Hurst’s classic 9-year nominal cycle trough
in 2020, we would produce a rather unbalanced cyclical analysis.
Consequently, the 2018 placement is, in my opinion, a much more
appropriate position for this nine-year cycle trough. We have had very
regular nine-year cycles beating from the trough in 1998, continuing
through the 2009 trough to the 2018 trough. Following this progression,
the next nine-year cycle trough is expected to occur in approximately
2027.
S&P 500 (monthly candles), 1997-2039: 9-year (red) and 54-month (orange) cycles.
The classic 9-year model, tracking a recent average 10.1-year wavelength, identifies major troughs in 2002, 2009, and 2018; it dismisses the deeper March 2020 low as Fundamental Interaction to preserve the model's harmonic ratios. Currently, this model places the market in the bearish third of three 18-month cycles following an October 2022 trough, forecasting a significant decline into a synchronized 9-year nest of lows by mid-2027.
S&P 500 (daily candles), November 2025 to September 2026: The orange dashed
Composite Model Line (CML) is a summation of all underlying cycles of the 9-year model:
Current nominal 20-week cycle = 16.9 weeks; 80-day cycle = 57 days; 40-day cycle = 31 days; 20-day cycle = 15.4 days.
Conversely, the 7-year model utilizes a 14-year/7-year rhythm visible in the 2002, 2009, 2016, and 2022 troughs. By phasing the October 2022 low as a major 14-year trough, this model explains recent persistent strength and suggests the market is in the first of three 18-month cycles,
implying a more bullish structural backdrop. Despite these long-term
differences, both models converge on a near-term projection: an early
2026 peak followed by a corrective move into an 18-month cycle trough around June or July 2026.
S&P 500 (daily candles), April 2025 to September 2026: The orange dashed Composite
Model Line (CML) is a summation of all underlying cycles of the 7-year model:
Current nominal 20-week cycle = 13.6 weeks; 80-day cycle = 56.5 days; 40-day cycle = 28 days; 20-day cycle = 13.8 days.
S&P 500 (daily candles), December 2025 to February 2026, and orange dashed 7-year model CML.
Nominal 9-Year Cycle vs Actual 7-Year Cycle.
Both models recognize a 40-week cycle trough on November 21, 2025, and the 80-day cycle trough on January 21. A peak is expected in late-Q1 early-Q2, to be followed by a significant mid-year correction into June-July.
Reference:
David Hickson (January 26, 2026) - Deep Cycle Dive: SPX - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)
David Hickson (January 26, 2026) - Deep Cycle Dive: SPX - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)
See also: