Showing posts with label Hurst Cycles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hurst Cycles. Show all posts

Monday, June 30, 2025

Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ | David Hickson

The S&P 500 formed a subtle 80-day cycle trough around June 23, 2025, and is expected to rise toward a 20-week cycle peak in mid-July 2025 with moderate upward momentum (red dashed line). 
  
 
A decline into a 20-week trough is anticipated around mid-August 2025, with a longer-term target of 7,233 later in the year.
 

The NASDAQ is expected to continue its bullish trend, moving upward to form a 20-week cycle peak around mid-July, followed by a decline into a 20-week cycle trough expected in mid-August to early September. 
 
 
 See also: 

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Hurst Cycles Timing & Straddled Troughs in the S&P 500 | David Hickson

The 80-day cycle trough was anticipated around early to mid-last week, but as of June 16, 2025 (Monday), it is considered overdue. The cycle is at 70 days since the last trough on April 7, 2025, compared to a recent average wavelength of 61 days and Hurst’s historical average of 68 days.
 
The S&P 500 is expected to form an 80-day cycle trough around mid-June 2025, potentially straddled, 
with bullish price action likely to follow toward a 20-week cycle trough in early August 2025.
 
If the trough formed on June 16, 2025, it would be 2 days later than the historical 68-day average. If it formed last Friday (June 13, 2025), it would be 1 day earlier than the average. If price continues downward without a bounce, the trough could be delayed to around Monday, June 23, 2025 (see also Cosmic Cluster Days and Seasonal Pattern), potentially due to a rephasing of the 18-month cycle trough to April 7, 2025 (displacing the 80-day trough by ~20 days).
 
 A straddled trough in Hurst cycle analysis occurs when a cycle trough is weak or hard to identify because shorter 
cycles are overshadowed by longer ones (e.g., 20-week, 40-week, 18-month).

The 80-day cycle is weak, showing minimal downward price influence, likely overshadowed by longer cycles (20-week, 40-week, 18-month). This results in a straddled trough, where the trough is subtle and lacks a strong downward move, as seen in the upper chart in the red dashed composite model line. The next 20-Week Cycle Trough is expected in early August 2025, which will likely have a stronger influence on price due to the dominance of longer cycles.

 

Saturday, May 17, 2025

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis | Krasi

We now have a potentially completed pattern on the hourly chart, with the schedule aligning to week 8 for the 10-week high, suggesting it's time for a pullback toward the 10-week low.


In the short term, the RSI appears to form a triangle in the middle, suggesting a possible zig-zag pattern with a running triangle as the Elliott B-wave. In the intermediate term, a zig-zag pattern is testing the 200-day moving average and the RSI trendline.
The next move is a pullback, followed by a rise into July.
 

In the short term, Hurst cycles are nearing the 10-week high, with the next move likely to be a decline toward the 10-week low.


The 40-week low in early April 2025 was right on schedule, with the next move expected to be a rise toward the 40-week high.
 
»
Absent an escalating trade war, there is no theme right now that can push stocks massively lower (i.e. re-test the April lows). 
I expect stocks to trade in a wide and volatile range throughout 2025 [...] perhaps making marginal all-time highs. «
 
See also: