S&P 500 Hurst Cycle Analysis

Composite Model Line (CML) through December 2026.

 

August established the multi-year high for the current cycle. On August 13 (Thu), the market peaked at 7,816.7, marking the dual 18-month and 40-week crest for the move that began at 4,835 in April 2025. This peak reflected mixed cycle translation: the 18-month cycle peaked late (at 77% of its duration), whereas the 40-week cycle peaked early (at 48%). A lesser secondary crest for the 80-day and 20-week cycles followed on August 28 (Fri) at 7,771.

From these highs, the market is trending downward toward a major nested trough projected for January 9 (Sat) 2027, which aligns the 18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles. Downside targets range from 7,148 on a standard 20-week retracement to approximately 6,500 if the full 40-week amplitude unfolds.
 

How the clock is set.

 

 

Forward Projection & Confluence Calendar.  

 

Position-horizon CML: Weekly S&P 500 from the March 23 (Mon) 2020 9-year trough June 2030. 

 

September: Initial Decline

September represents the first leg of this broader decline rather than a continuation to new highs. A 20-day trough printed on September 10 (Thu) at 7,580. Provided this support holds, the only remaining minor crests are a 5-/10-/20-day cluster on September 14 (Mon), September 15 (Tue), and September 18 (Fri) near 7,710. Subsequent low projections follow in close order, beginning with the 5-day low on September 16 (Wed), followed by the 10-day low on September 21 (Mon), and concluding with the 40-day low on September 26 (Sat), which marks the midpoint of the active 80-day cycle.

October: Continued Downside

October continues the downward trajectory rather than initiating a late-stage rally. The 80-day cycle—whose crest is already locked in at 7,771—is due to trough on October 31 (Sat) (with an expected window spanning October 24–Nov 7), following a breakdown below its Future Line Demarcation (FLD) on September 9. Initial measured support stands at 7,562, followed by the 20-week FLD at 7,482.

 

Alternate Cycle Projection 

If the 7,482 (the July 31 close) support fails, an accelerated alternate resolution brings the 18-month low forward to October 5 (Mon) near 7,000, bypassing the January window entirely. There is no structural path to an October all-time high; the 8,469 projection went unfulfilled in August, and the 40-week cycle has already passed its crest.

Alternate composite, different nest: 18-month / short 40-week into Oct 5 (Mon) 2026, no
mid-October 40-week crest. Key dates: Next crest August 28 7,771.4 (40-day / 80-day / 20-
week already in), working 20-day bounce September 18 · ~7,710, then October 5 trough
~7,000. If October is a deep break instead of a moderate 80-day, this is the path.

With the 80-day uptrend breaking on September 9, this down-cycle represents an immediate risk tied to a one-third division of the major 54-month or 4½-year cycle that began in April 2025. Because that fractional cycle projection matures this fall rather than early next year, the market risks shifting into a deeper low target around October 5 (near 7,000) if the S&P closes under 7,482 before reclaiming 7,720. 

 

While January remains the principal nested low under the condition that 7,482 holds, breaching that support level invalidates the January timeline, favoring a sharper autumn selloff over extended rangebound consolidation into the new year. 

 

Dominant Cycles (in calendar days).
 

Current Cycle Positions.

 

Hurst Diamond Chart: Stacked diamonds at nested troughs from Jan 2025 through the Jan 9 2027 projection. Filled = observed; hollow = projected. Verticals mark 5+ degree synchronic lows. Apr 7 (Mon) 2025 is the in-sample 54-month / 18-month / 40-week origin. 9-year (2020), 18-year / 54-year (2003) and the 1949 54-year anchor sit off this window. 2009 is not an 18-year. 

 

See also:

Jeff Hirsch (September 2, 2026) - September Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Jeff Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

David Hickson (September 1, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, Bitcoin.

Seth Golden (July 28, 2026) - Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains. 

Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026. 

Larry Williams (December 24, 2024) - 2025 US Stock Market Outlook: The Good, the Bad & the Ugly. 

Branimir Vojcic (September 9, 2026) - DJIA vs Dominant Weekly Cycle Composite Through H1 2027. 

 

 S&P 500 spectrum composite forecast by Sergey Ivanov via Timing Solution (September 13, 2026). 

 

Claudio Fialdini applies the Delta Phenomenon's super-long-term 19-year (228-month) and long-term cycles to the S&P 500, proposing 14 alternating waves of tops and bottoms culminating in a major peak and deep crash. Anchored to the Metonic cycle, historical turning points include 1929, 1947, 1966, 1987, and 2007, with Wave 14 projecting a terminal peak in 2026. Waves 1–13 comprise the secular advance; Wave 14 marks the final crest before liquidation. The green baseline traces cycle support through the 2009 GFC (Wave 1), 2011 (Wave 3), 2015–16 (Wave 5), and 2020 COVID (Wave 7) lows, followed by a projected decline toward the multi-decade trendline.

Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, Bitcoin | David Hickson

S&P 500: A 20-week trough formed July 29. Bullish momentum has weakened but is not yet bearish; the key question is whether another 40-/80-day peak forms before an F-category break below the 20-day FLD initiates the decline into the mid-September 80-day trough.

 

NASDAQ: A 20-week trough formed at the end of July, at least 20-week magnitude and potentially higher. The NASDAQ retains stronger near-term bullish potential than the S&P 500, with 30,239 still outstanding and a possible double peak preceding the eventual F-category decline into the 80-day trough.

 

Australian ASX: A 20-week trough formed around the US troughs, but the 20-day FLD has produced unclear signals and the trough did not clearly form below it. A 40-day trough probably formed in the third week of August, although an alternative remains. The ASX is likely approaching its second 80-day peak, but its FLD is unusually unreliable (23% interaction rating), while failure to reach 9,237 provides a stronger bearish warning than in the US markets.

 

 

Gold: A 20-week trough formed in the third week of July. Gold's bullish impetus may have been exhausted at its recent 80-day/possible 20-week peak; the confirmed F-category FLD break favors approximately $4,312 and a mid-September 80-day trough, although larger bullish cycles may remain ahead.

 

 

 
Bitcoin: Bitcoin has finally rallied from the potentially January 2026 18-month trough. A 20-week trough was identified in early July, although it could also represent a better placement of the 18-month trough. Bitcoin has finally produced the expected bullish strength; the 76,753 40-week FLD target has been exceeded, while the 20-day FLD will determine whether the 80-day trough occurred early or remains ahead.

 

 

Reference:

David Hickson (August 31, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video) 

VIX 80-Day Cycle Low Within Days & Volatility Ready to Break Out | Namzes

The VIX 80-day cycle low is expected within the next few days. August 5 marked day 68, which is slightly early but still within range. The 40-day cycle, shown in the bottom panel, reflects a 2:1 harmonic ratio relative to the 80-day cycle. August options expiration (OpEx, Friday, August 21) should be watched as a potential window for a volatility breakout. Volatility is likely to rise into October, where the next key low in the S&P 500 may form.

Top panel: VIX price + 80-day cycle. Middle: Seasonality/trend + dated cycle lows. Bottom: 40-day cycle oscillator.

The S&P 500's 20-week cycle low likely occurred on July 29 (Wed), with 7,313 now serving as a key daily pivot for any downside. As the VIX cycle approaches its low in the coming days, it is important to monitor the VIX term structure, which is currently reaching extreme contango levels, indicating that 30-day volatility is significantly lower than 3-month volatility. When this ratio approaches and clusters around 0.80, it signals market complacency and often precedes pullbacks in equities.

VIX/VIX3M ratio vs. S&P 500.

 

The VIX/VIX3M ratio, shown inverted in the lower panel for easier comparison against the S&P 500 (in gold), highlights these 0.80 readings. When combined with extreme dispersion and a rapidly declining put/call ratio this week, these conditions point to increasing volatility, which is expected to spike in the second half of August.

Reference:
Namzes (August 5 and 7) - Volatility Set to Ignite: Complacency Signals August Breakout.
 

See also:

Namzes (July 27, 2026) - 20-Week Hurst Cycle Low Due in SPX QQQ SOX SMH.
TPR (August 6, 2026) - S&P 500 Hits New ATH as Smart Money Starts Bailing.

S&P 500 Hits New ATH as Smart Money Starts Bailing

With the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high in early August 2026, a pronounced contrarian bearish divergence has emerged among market participants. Retail "Dumb Money" Confidence (red line in the chart below) has surged from neutral into optimistic territory at 0.61, while institutional "Smart Money" Confidence (blue line) has dropped into pessimistic territory at 0.31. 

 

Retail sentiment tilts euphoric while institutional positioning turns defensive.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index signals rising greed, though not yet at extremes. 

 

Historically, the most dangerous periods for stocks are when dumb money is high and smart money is low at the same time the index is elevated. It does not mean an immediate crash is guaranteed, but it raises the odds of a meaningful pullback or at least a period of weaker returns ahead. 

 

An alternative experimental S&P 500 composite cycle

projection points to a mid-October major low.

However, having likely printed a nominal 20-week Hurst cycle low on June 30 (17.29 weeks / 121 CD off the late-March 40-week trough), the S&P remains in the rising phase of its second 20-week sub-cycle—part of a broader 40-week (9-month) and 18-month structure targeting a major low in late November (± 8 weeks).

 

Static projection based on the latest 20-week cycle period (17.29 weeks / 121 CD).

 

However, having likely printed a nominal 20-week Hurst cycle low on June 30 (17.29 weeks / 121 CD off the late-March 40-week trough), the S&P remains in the rising phase of its second 20-week sub-cycle—part of a broader 40-week (9-month) and 18-month structure targeting a major low in late November (± 8 weeks).

 
The current rise suggests to extend into early September—interrupted by the 5- and 10-day cycle higher lows of August 5–6 (Wed-Thu) and August 11–12 (Tue-Wed) and a 20-day cycle low around August 24 -28 (Mon-fri)—before yielding a late-September 80-day (10-week) cycle trough. A secondary rally into mid-October—capped below the September peak—is then likely to trigger the final decline into the primary 40-week and 18-month cycle trough in November.

 

Total Solar Eclipse on August 12.

 

Key Turning Dates of the Solar Cycle vs. the DJIA.

 

Q1 rally, mid-year correction, July and October windows for yearly low, rally in Q4.  

Average S&P 500 total-return path (indexed to 100 on midterm Election Day) for all midterm years since 1970 (1970–2022), spanning roughly ±6 months. X-axis centers on Election Day (first Tuesday in November); y-axis tracks cumulative total return. The average line rises in the final ~22 trading days before the election (= October 2, 2026) and continues higher afterward (+14.1% average in the following six months). A separate “Lost Control” series (party loses presidential trifecta) lags the broader average post-election (+10.4% vs. +16.1%).

See also: 

Nicholas D. Savino (August 2, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for August 2026.

Jeff Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Seth Golden (July 28, 2026) - Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains.

 Jack Gillen (1979) - Important Solar and Lunar Degrees for Trading US Stock Indices.

20-Week Hurst Cycle Low Due in SPX QQQ SOX SMH | Namzes

The last 80-day cycle bottomed on time (June 10). Semiconductor stocks (SOX/SMH) made marginal new all-time highs, while the broader indices—the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)—remained slightly below theirs.

PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX).

We are now due for a 20-week cycle low. July 17 marked day 109 and last Friday day 116, so a low may already be in, though it’s early to confirm. Alternatively, if this was only a 40-day low, the current 20-week cycle could extend into a late-August bottom. This would be the fourth bullish cycle in a row, increasing the likelihood that the next cycle is left-translated (bearish).

The subsequent 20-week low, following the August trough, is projected for late October, aligning with seasonal weakness and potentially offering a significant buying opportunity (see the April 2025 SOX projection).  A 3.5-year cycle (Kitchin Cycle) low is still expected ahead, but no major liquidation has occurred yet and models have not issued a sell signal. Market breadth remains acceptable; however, leadership—particularly in technology and semiconductors—is weakening, while defensive rotation is increasing, both of which are cautionary signals.

Using Hurst cycle analysis, the semiconductor ETF (SMH) is entering the 10-week FLD (Future Line of Demarcation). In a strong uptrend, this level typically acts as support; a break below would imply lower projections toward the 200-day moving average (200 DMA) and Q1 highs. For now, this remains a preliminary, low-confidence projection.

PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX).

The current 40-day cycle should continue rising for a few more trading days. The next 40-day low in August will help determine whether the new 20-week cycle is bullish or bearish. A bearish outcome would show early failure, indicating left translation.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

We are in a short-term downtrend, with the 50-day moving average (50 DMA) acting as a pivot near 600 on SMH. Above it, 620 is the key resistance level.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

 

Failure at 600 would open the path to liquidation toward Q1 highs, filling gaps below and repairing weak structure, including the large volume void between 420 and 537 (which includes the July 17 low).

 

Reference:
Namzes (July 27, 2026) - Hurst Cycles: 20W Low Due Across SPX QQQ SOX SMH.
 

See also:

Namzes (June 28, 2026) - Oil Outlook 2026: Navigating the Upcoming 40-Week Cycle Low.
Namzes (April 17, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.
Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.

 

Hurst Cycle Troughs and Peaks (November 2025 through July 24, 2026).

 

» The current 20-week cycle could extend into a late-August bottom. « 

Forward Cycle Projection through late 2026-early-2027.

S&P 500 Update: 80-Day Cycle Peak by Late-July | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: US Dollar Small Down (->80D trough). Gold Down (->20D trough). Oil Up (->20D peak). Copper Up (-> 80D peak). USDJPY Small Down (->80D trough). EURUSD Down (-> 20D trough). SPX E-minis Up (-> 80D peak). Nikkei futures Up (20D trough). Bitcoin Up (-> 20D peak). US Treasury Notes Up (20D trough).

  

S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) heading towards the next nominal 80-day cycle peak around late-July. Up.

 

US Dollar (DXY) close to an 80-day cycle trough. Small Down.

 

DXY is closing in on the next 80-day cycle trough. Price has just been rejected at the 20-day VTL, which likely marks the last 20-day cycle peak. Expecting minor pullback to the 40-day VTL and then further price expansion.

Bitcoin looking for the next 20-day cycle trough. Small Down.

 

In Bitcoin, the new 20-week cycle upswing is broadly driving price higher. We are looking for a soft pullback into the next 20-day cycle trough. 

Reference:
Christopher Grafton (July 13, 2026) - The Macro Brief - 13 July 2026.

See also:

Christopher Grafton (July 6, 2026) - The Macro Brief - 6 July 2026. 

Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Valid Trendlines (VTLs).
Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs). 

Nicholas D. Savino (June 30, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026. 

Wayne Whaley (June 29, 2026) - 25-0 S&P 500 Setup for June 26 to July 15. 

David Hickson (June 29, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin. 
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

S&P 500 Up into Mid-July 40-Day Cycle Peak | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: US Dollar Up (10D trough). Gold SmallUp (80D trough). Oil Pause (80D trough). Copper Up (-> 20D peak). USDJPY Up (80D trough). EURUSD SmallUp (80D trough). SPX E-minis Up (-> 40D peak). Nikkei futures Up (20D trough). Bitcoin Up (-> 20D peak). US Treasury Notes Up (-> 20D peak).

S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) - heading towards the next 40-day cycle peak. Up.

The 20-day cycle trough looks to have formed with the early June 80-day cycle upswing acting as a tailwind. We are looking for a move up into the next 40-day cycle peak.

Reference:
Christopher Grafton (July 6, 2026) - The Macro Brief - 6 July 2026.

See also:

Nicholas D. Savino (June 30, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026. 

Wayne Whaley (June 29, 2026) - 25-0 S&P 500 Setup for June 26 to July 15. 

David Hickson (June 29, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin. 
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin | David Hickson

This market update focuses on the danger of symmetry in cycle analysis. Across all markets analyzed—S&P 500, NASDAQ, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin—the central theme is consistent: the risk of symmetrical M shapes forming within a larger bearish cycle context. While not yet confirmed, multiple signals—failed targets, breakdowns below FLDs, and weaker second peaks—suggest increasing downside risk. Confirmation will depend on upcoming price interactions with key FLD levels.

S&P 500: The analysis builds on a major cycle trough at the end of March. In the prior update, the 80-day cycle trough was identified as likely complete. Cycles typically generate M-shaped price structures: an initial rise to a peak, a decline to a mid-cycle trough (e.g., 40-day), followed by a second peak and eventual decline into the larger cycle trough. The recent structure formed a distorted, bullish M shape, where the second peak was not symmetrical but elevated.

 

Topping in symmetrical 20-week M structure, likely heading into 18-month trough around late August. 

[current average cycle periods in stacked, color-coded boxes at bottom right.] 

 

Attention now shifts to the larger 20-week cycle, which is also forming an M shape. The first leg ran from the late-March trough to a peak, followed by a decline into the mid-June 80-day trough. A key analytical risk is symmetry: a perfectly symmetrical M shape typically indicates a neutral market. However, the presence of an upcoming 18-month cycle trough—expected around August—implies a bearish context. When a cycle concludes into a higher-magnitude trough, the resulting M shape is typically bearish, characterized by a lower second peak and a stronger decline.

Following the June 80-day trough, price should rise before eventually turning down into the 18-month trough. The concern is that the current price action may be forming a symmetrical structure, signaling weakness. Price has struggled to rally, reinforcing this risk.

 

Examining interactions with the 20-day FLD (Future Line of Demarcation), price crossed above it after the 80-day trough (an A-category signal), but failed to reach its projected target—a first bearish sign. Subsequently, during formation of the 20-day cycle trough, price broke below the FLD instead of finding support, marking a second bearish signal. While not conclusive, this raises the probability of a bearish cycle. The next confirmation would be a failed attempt to reclaim the FLD. 

 

 

The thick blue dashed composite model line, which reconstructs price behavior based solely on cycle inputs, illustrates the symmetry risk clearly: a period of compression followed by a breakdown into the 18-month trough. This model is not predictive but conditional—if cycles persist as analyzed, this is the expected trajectory. The broader context includes a 54-month trough in October 2023 and an 18-month trough in April 2025, with the next 18-month trough projected for August.

The NASDAQ mirrors this structure. Its 80-day trough formed slightly earlier in June, followed by a move above the 20-day FLD that failed to meet its target and then reversed below it—again producing two bearish signals. A symmetrical M shape is also forming here, with similar downside risk into the 18-month trough.

 

Mirroring S&P with a failed FLD sequence, rolling over toward an August 18-month trough.

 

A remote bullish alternative exists: a triangular consolidation could represent a final base, with price breaking upward and shifting the 80-day trough forward. However, this would imply an extended cycle length (around 87 days vs. the typical 68), weakening the analysis. Confirmation would require a strong upward move through the FLD with target achievement.

The Australian ASX provides confirming evidence through Hurst’s principle of commonality, which observes that global markets tend to form troughs synchronously. The ASX identified the 20-week trough earlier than US markets and also formed its 80-day trough earlier. It now shows a similar setup: a potential bearish M shape with a lower second peak and a projected decline into an 18-month trough around late July or early August.

 

Late-stage M structure with residual strength, direction unresolved but biased down into late July–early August.

 

However, the ASX differs in that it successfully achieved certain FLD targets and even exceeded one, indicating residual bullish strength. Despite this, it later broke below the FLD again, signaling vulnerability. The next expected interaction (E-category) will determine direction: success implies continued strength; failure reinforces bearish symmetry. Notably, the composite model underestimated the recent peak, suggesting more bullishness than expected and raising the possibility of misidentified longer cycles.

In Gold, a major peak earlier in the year has maintained bearish pressure. A potential 80-day trough was identified, but price failed to confirm it by crossing above the FLD. Instead, price repeatedly found resistance at the FLD (GH interactions), leaving the trough unconfirmed.

 

Unconfirmed 80-day trough with repeated FLD rejection, likely weak bounce before continuing lower over the near term.

 

If a trough is forming, it would imply an unusually long cycle (~93 days), which is plausible for Gold. Confirmation requires a clean break above the FLD and target achievement. The composite model suggests a near-term bounce followed by renewed decline.

Bitcoin presents a more complex case. The prior analysis suggested a 20-week trough may have formed in early June, but this remains uncertain due to subsequent lower lows. If that trough is valid, the current 20-day cycle is exceptionally bearish—an early warning of broader weakness. Price initially crossed above the FLD (A-category), but failed to reach its target and then broke below the FLD, producing two bearish signals.

 

Structurally weakening; either already in a bearish 20-week cycle or still topping, with downside 

pressure building into the next few weeks to months within the current 18-month cycle.

 

Alternatively, the 20-week trough may still be forming, in which case the earlier FLD signal was anomalous. Cycle timing supports this ambiguity, as current price action aligns with expected trough timing based on average cycle length (~19.6 weeks).

Zooming out, Bitcoin has followed Hurst cycle rhythms closely. A 54-month trough formed in late 2022, followed by an 18-month trough in August 2024 (~593 days, slightly extended) and another candidate in February (~547 days, near ideal length). If this structure holds, Bitcoin is now in the final 18-month cycle of the current 54-month cycle. The first 18-month cycle was strongly bullish, the second moderately bullish, and the current one is showing early bearish characteristics—raising concern that the broader trend is turning down into the next major trough expected in 2027.

 

Reference:
David Hickson (June 29, 2026) - The Danger of Symmetry - Hurst Cycles Market Update (video)

 

See also:
David Hickson (June 15, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, NIFTY, DAX, Gold, BTC.

Christopher Grafton (June 29, 2026) - S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) - heading towards the next 20 day cycle peak. Up.