The 80-day cycle trough was anticipated around early
to mid-last week, but as of June 16, 2025 (Monday), it is considered overdue. The cycle is at 70 days since
the last trough on April 7, 2025, compared to a recent average
wavelength of 61 days and Hurst’s historical average of 68 days.
The S&P 500 is expected to form an 80-day cycle trough around mid-June 2025, potentially straddled,
with bullish price action likely to follow toward a 20-week cycle trough in early August 2025.
If the trough formed on June 16, 2025, it would be 2 days later than the historical 68-day average. If it formed last Friday (June 13, 2025), it would be 1 day earlier than the average. If price continues downward without a bounce, the trough could be delayed to around Monday, June 23, 2025 (see also Cosmic Cluster Days and Seasonal Pattern), potentially due to a rephasing of the 18-month cycle trough to April 7, 2025 (displacing the 80-day trough by ~20 days).
A straddled trough in Hurst cycle analysis occurs when a cycle trough is weak or hard to identify because shorter
cycles are overshadowed by longer ones (e.g., 20-week, 40-week, 18-month).
The 80-day cycle is weak, showing minimal downward price influence, likely overshadowed by longer cycles (20-week, 40-week, 18-month). This results in a straddled trough, where the trough is subtle and lacks a strong downward move, as seen in the upper chart in the red dashed composite model line. The next 20-Week Cycle Trough is expected in early August 2025, which will likely have a stronger influence on price due to the dominance of longer cycles.
Jeff Hirsch, June 17, 2025: "Get Ready for NASDAQ’s Christmas in July Mid-Year Rally."
See also: