The
forecast focuses on market direction and timing rather than magnitude
of price change.
Reference:
Sunday, May 31, 2026
S&P 500 Forecast for June 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino
Cosmic Cluster Days | May 2026
Heliocentric
Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) do not exhibit a consistent polarity or
directional bias in financial markets. The 'noise channel' functions as a
signal filter, with its upper and lower bounds defined empirically.
However, swing highs and lows that form within the noise channel may
still correlate with short-term market trends and reversals.
Jun 04-05 (Thu-Fri) | Jun12 (Fri) | Jun 15 (Mon) | Jun 20-21 (Sat-Sun) | Jul 1-2 (Wed-Thu)
Tuesday, May 26, 2026
NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting | Larry Williams
Let's start with the three core market tools—often misunderstood and rarely used together effectively:
■ Fundamentals determine value: Markets ultimately move for fundamental reasons, and value is rewarded over
time—not necessarily today, this month, or even this year. A value-driven framework is indispensable.
■ Technicals define the present: They reveal current market conditions—trend, momentum, overbought or
oversold states.
■ Cycles provide the edge: They project direction and timing, identifying when opportunities are most likely to
emerge.
The process is straightforward: What has value? Where are we now? Where are we going? You need all three—none is sufficient on its own. We begin with cycles, specifically the NASDAQ, which has exhibited structural strength since 2009.
Bullish NASDAQ Cycle Analysis
Market cycles consist of recurring lows, rallies, and declines, but not all waves carry equal weight. Some phases are structurally stronger—and we are currently in one.
bias remains up, buy pullbacks.
A comparable wave (3.5-Year, 40-Month, or Kitchin Cycle) in 2016 produced a sustained rally. The current configuration is similar. Since 2023, the NASDAQ has been in a pronounced bullish cycle. While my primary focus is typically the NASDAQ, recent instability in the Dow has increased its relative importance this year. Current cycle positioning suggests the early stages of another strong upward phase—historically associated with meaningful advances.
NASDAQ Could Rally Again: Historically, this cycle turns higher in June roughly 90% of the time.
Why the NASDAQ Could Rally Again: Historically, this cycle turns higher in June roughly 90% of the time, experiences a modest pullback in August, and then continues upward. That pattern implies a constructive setup.
Markets do not require declines to rally. They often consolidate sideways before advancing—a behavior repeatedly observed. While many investors wait for pullbacks, the absence of weakness does not negate bullish conditions. My 2026 forecast anticipated higher prices and emphasized buying pullbacks—not waiting for a breakdown that may never materialize.
Markets do not require declines to rally. They often consolidate sideways before advancing—a behavior repeatedly observed. While many investors wait for pullbacks, the absence of weakness does not negate bullish conditions. My 2026 forecast anticipated higher prices and emphasized buying pullbacks—not waiting for a breakdown that may never materialize.
Dow Jones "Explosive Wave" Pattern
The Dow is forming a recurring "explosive wave" structure: consolidation followed by a sharp advance. This sequence—sideways movement transitioning into a rapid rally—has repeated multiple times.
Inflation, as anticipated, has moved higher and remains closely linked to bond market dynamics. The longer-term trajectory still points toward declining interest rates into the early 2030s. This brings us to bonds.The expected mid-June low should be understood as a cycle low in the NASDAQ and DJIA—a tactical buying opportunity, not necessarily the absolute price bottom. The broader outlook remains intact: 2026 is a bull market year.
Bond Market Setup & Seasonality
Bond seasonality is currently in a bullish phase, historically associated with rallies. Cycle analysis aligns with this timing, reinforcing the setup. The Money Flow Index indicates institutional accumulation—an early and important signal.
near-term dip is a tactical buy entry.
Institutional Positioning in Bonds: Professional money is rotating into bonds. Commitment of Traders data shows commercial participants holding their largest long position since 2023. Historically, markets tend to advance when large, informed participants accumulate.
COT data shows commercial participants holding their largest long position since 2023.
Combined with a seasonal low, a cycle low, and improving money flow, the evidence points to a high-probability buying zone.
Wait for short-term pullback, then enter in alignment with the broader cycle and seasonal trend.
Bond Market Strategy: On the daily timeframe, bonds are near a seasonal low with capital beginning to flow in. The tactical approach: wait for a short-term pullback, then enter in alignment with the broader cycle and seasonal trend. While the market has already begun to move higher, a near-term retracement would provide a more favorable entry.
Stay the course. There is no bear market. Despite persistent skepticism, the primary trend remains upward. The strategy is unchanged: buy pullbacks, not fear them. We are in a bull market.
Reference:
See also:
Kevin Warsh is now Fed Chair, reviving fears that markets "test" new leadership—citing Bernanke (2007–09 crisis), Greenspan (1987 crash), and Volcker (late-1970s inflation). Yet history does not show leadership changes reliably trigger downturns. Context: since 1930, the S&P 500’s average annual drawdown is 16.1% (bearish extreme), its average best rally is 25.9% (bullish extreme), and mean annual return is 8.0%.
Post–Fed leadership changes, S&P 500 performance is generally not bearish: except at the 3-month horizon, advance rates exceed a 60% bullish threshold and average returns are positive. If Eugene Meyer (Great Depression) and Greenspan (1987) are excluded as likely timing outliers, results improve further: all intervals show higher average returns and win rates; at 1 year, the S&P 500 averages +12.7% and is higher 90% of the time.
Monday, May 25, 2026
When Loss Changes You | Russell Geoffrey Banks
You have to be so careful when dealing with people who have lost parents, siblings—God forbid—their own child. Because when someone goes through that magnitude of loss, they can never look at the world the same way again. It's different. Of course it is. They won't tolerate your fake energy. They won't play about peace because they've already lost some of the biggest pieces of themselves.
And once you lose
someone so close, you have this shift inside of you. It's never going to
be the same again. It just can't be. That day, the person you used to
be also left. That person is gone now. And everything is different. Even
the way you smile is different because, in your head, you start feeling
guilty all of a sudden. And you can't love the same. You can't, because
you're so worried about losing someone.
Even the way you breathe is different because that peace and harmony are gone now. They're gone, and they've been replaced with just sadness. And it just doesn't—no matter how many years go by, no matter what happens—that's not going to change, because grief does not leave. It just morphs into some other shape, which maybe you can deal with a little bit better.
Even the way you breathe is different because that peace and harmony are gone now. They're gone, and they've been replaced with just sadness. And it just doesn't—no matter how many years go by, no matter what happens—that's not going to change, because grief does not leave. It just morphs into some other shape, which maybe you can deal with a little bit better.
May 24 to June 5: Fifth-Ranked Bullish S&P Seasonal Period | Wayne Whaley
My Top Ten Seasonal Model evaluates the performance of every time frame in the year, from 7 to 35 calendar days, and identifies the top 10 mutually exclusive periods.
May 24 to June 5, S&P positive in 37 of 50 years with 1.21% average return
and only one 3%+ loss, while Nasdaq averaged 1.77% with 38 up periods.
Notably, over the last 50 years, the S&P experienced only one 3% loss (1981) during this period, versus ten different years that recorded 3% gains. The last ten cases have been positive.
See also:
Saturday, May 23, 2026
S&P 500 Four-Year Election Cycle: Ranking All 48 Months | Wayne Whaley
If you are into Election Cycle tendencies, you might possibly find this study of interest. I have S&P data back to its origin in 1957 and S&P proxy data, via Dow analog, back to 1930. Dating back to 1930, I took the time to calculate my personal performance rating for each of the 48 months of the Four-Year Election Cycle, which is based on an average with outliers underweighted. The rating measure ranges from -100 to +100 in -3 to +3 standard deviation fashion.
Reasonable chance of posting a win this year?
The left side of the table above contains the top 24 rated months through April of 2026 of the Four-Year Election Cycle in the sample set, while the right side contains the bottom 24 months. The 3% column is the performance in those months which had a 3% move in either direction. Likewise for the 5% column.
Four of the top ten months in this study occur in Pre-Election years, with Januarys (20-4) at the top. While four of the bottom ten occur in Midterm Election years. Owing largely to the seven Junes of those 24 in the test set which incurred 5% losses, June of Midterm Election years brings up the rear.
The S&P has exhibited a resilience to many a headwind in 2026 which, in my humble opinion, merits respect, and the weak June midterm election seasonals should be weighed against many a traditional momentum-based seasonal study that gives June a reasonable chance of posting a win this year. Tis your call.
See also:
2026 Saturn-Neptune Conjunction: Global Ideological and Institutional Reset
The
above geopolitical cycle model developed by André Barbault correlates
major transformations with long planetary cycles, especially the
geocentric 36-year conjunction cycle of Saturn and Neptune, historically associated with ideological restructuring of states and political systems.
Saturn-Neptune conjunction in Aries on February 20, 2026.
It
is important to recognize that in both geocentric and heliocentric
mundane astrology, outer-planet cycles—such as the conjunction of Saturn
and Neptune—describe broad rhythms of global historical development
rather than events confined to the USSR, Russia, or any other single
empire, state, nation, or civilization (as is the case in natal astrology applied to states, nations, etc.).
Saturn
represents structure, boundaries, authority, governments, discipline,
death, and the weight of material reality, as well as time. Neptune
signifies dreams, illusions, disillusionment, ideology, deception, oil,
religion, and the transcendent—along with spirituality. When these two
planets conjoin, a collision occurs between the real and the ideal: old
structures dissolve, new visions emerge, and the line between liberation
and tyranny becomes increasingly blurred.
The
latest Saturn-Neptune conjunction occurred on February 20, 2026 at 0°
Aries, the Aries Point traditionally linked with events of global
manifestation. This alignment inaugurated a new Saturn–Neptune cycle
extending roughly from 2026 to 2062 and therefore marks a probable phase
of systemic ideological and institutional reorganization comparable in
structural significance to earlier conjunction periods such as 1917 and
1989. The
broader planetary configuration intensifies the importance of this
reset (see table below). Pluto entered Aquarius in 2024, a transit
associated with technological transformation, mass mobilization, and
redistribution of political power that lasts into the 2040s.
Neptune is moving into Aries in 2025–2026, symbolizing ideological mobilization and the emergence of new collective narratives, while Saturn also enters Aries in 2026, imposing institutional pressure and forcing structural redefinition of political authority. At the same time Uranus enters Gemini in 2026, historically correlated with communication revolutions and geopolitical confrontation; previous passages coincided with the American Revolutionary era and the Second World War.
The simultaneous ingress of several outer planets during the mid-2020s therefore indicates a rare generational transition affecting technological systems, ideological structures, and geopolitical balances.
Neptune is moving into Aries in 2025–2026, symbolizing ideological mobilization and the emergence of new collective narratives, while Saturn also enters Aries in 2026, imposing institutional pressure and forcing structural redefinition of political authority. At the same time Uranus enters Gemini in 2026, historically correlated with communication revolutions and geopolitical confrontation; previous passages coincided with the American Revolutionary era and the Second World War.
The simultaneous ingress of several outer planets during the mid-2020s therefore indicates a rare generational transition affecting technological systems, ideological structures, and geopolitical balances.
The February 2026 Saturn–Neptune conjunction marks the opening of a new ideological cycle. The most volatile interval will be approximately 2025–2030, when structural tensions manifest through wars, crises and systemic reorganization, followed by institutional consolidation and a new world order between roughly 2032 and 2035.
Within
this configuration the latest Saturn–Neptune conjunction functions as
the cycle’s ignition point. Conjunction phases historically coincide
with dissolution of prevailing ideological frameworks and the emergence
of new political narratives. When combined with Pluto in Aquarius and
Uranus in Gemini, the interval from roughly 2025 to 2027 appears as the
principal systemic shock phase.
Short-term activations occur when faster bodies cross the conjunction degree: transits of Mars and the Sun in February–March 2026 and again during mid-2026, when Mars forms tense aspects with Uranus, represent a trigger windows during which underlying structural tensions manifest through political crises, financial disruptions, and abrupt internal, regional, and global geopolitical confrontations.
Short-term activations occur when faster bodies cross the conjunction degree: transits of Mars and the Sun in February–March 2026 and again during mid-2026, when Mars forms tense aspects with Uranus, represent a trigger windows during which underlying structural tensions manifest through political crises, financial disruptions, and abrupt internal, regional, and global geopolitical confrontations.
After
the conjunction the cycle normally enters a formative phase lasting
several years. Between approximately 2028 and 2031 the developing
Saturn–Neptune dynamic may manifest as ideological polarization and
attempts to construct new institutional frameworks.
Antonio Gramsci, Prison Notebook #3, 1930.
Uranus advancing through Gemini emphasizes technological rivalry, cyber conflict, and strategic competition in communications and artificial intelligence, while Pluto in Aquarius intensifies collective movements and challenges entrenched hierarchies of power. The interaction of these cycles suggests a period in which nations, states, and civilizations experience pronounced internal political tension while simultaneously confronting structural competition within an evolving multipolar and eurasiacentric international system.
By
the early 2030s this cycle tends toward consolidation. From roughly
2032 to 2035 the ideological and institutional structures that emerge
from the earlier crisis phase are likely to stabilize, producing revised
political doctrines, new geopolitical alignments, or reconfigured
economic frameworks. Historical precedents indicate that such
consolidation does not necessarily imply decline; states, nations, and
civilizations often emerge from these cycles transformed but
institutionally durable.
Nevertheless,
the concentration of outer-planet transitions in the mid-2020s implies
that the interval from about 2025 to 2030 represents the most volatile
portion of the Saturn–Neptune cycle.
In strict cyclical terms, this period constitutes the window in which
all states, nations, and civilizations in the international system most
likely encounter a decisive ideological and structural turning point
shaping the political order of the subsequent decades.
See also:
Thursday, May 21, 2026
Three Major War Cycles Converging 2027–2032 | Richard Smith
Richard Smith, CEO, Chairman of the Board, and Executive Director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, presented research on long-term cycles in war and human conflict. His analysis reveals deep interconnections between warfare, economic activity, food production, and solar phenomena, potentially mediated by solar radiation and Earth’s geomagnetic influences on biological and social systems.
» All three cycle families show rising phase conditions in the current window. A convergence appears around 2027-2032. «
Building on the Foundation's archives and the work of Edward R. Dewey (1895–1978) and Raymond H. Wheeler (1892–1961), Smith's analysis revives and extends early 20th-century cycles research using modern tools, including AI-assisted digitization and the Foundation's Cycle Analyzer. Wheeler's landmark dataset spans roughly 2,600 years (from 600 BC onward), meticulously documenting and ranking battles by severity. Dewey, motivated by his experiences in World War I and II, identified recurring rhythms across diverse phenomena to better understand and potentially mitigate societal calamities.
Dewey observed a prominent 54-year cycle manifesting across multiple domains—including international battles, wheat prices, sunspots, tree rings, and financial instruments—with major peaks in 1917, 1971, and a projected crest in 2025. He also highlighted a 17.7-year cycle in warfare data derived from Wheeler's records through 1957. Projections of this cycle similarly converge on 2025. Unlike much of today's single-series technical analysis, Dewey's approach emphasized cycles that appeared independently across unrelated phenomena. The consistent recurrence of the same wavelengths across disparate datasets served as strong evidence of meaningful underlying rhythms.
Dewey observed a prominent 54-year cycle manifesting across multiple domains—including international battles, wheat prices, sunspots, tree rings, and financial instruments—with major peaks in 1917, 1971, and a projected crest in 2025. He also highlighted a 17.7-year cycle in warfare data derived from Wheeler's records through 1957. Projections of this cycle similarly converge on 2025. Unlike much of today's single-series technical analysis, Dewey's approach emphasized cycles that appeared independently across unrelated phenomena. The consistent recurrence of the same wavelengths across disparate datasets served as strong evidence of meaningful underlying rhythms.
» The entire vast area of human madness. «
Alexander L. Chizhevsky, 1922.
Smith has validated and extended this historical research with contemporary conflict datasets, including the Correlates of War (COW) Project, battle-related deaths statistics, and the UCDP Conflict Data Project. He also incorporated long-term economic and solar series such as wheat prices (from 1259), commodities, gold, silver, and sunspot records. Statistical analysis confirms several robust cycle families appearing consistently across war, economic, agricultural, and solar data:
■ 16–20 year cycle (≈18 years, the Dewey cycle)
■ 28–30 year cycle (Mogey cycle)
■ 39–40 year cycle
■ 56–60 year cycle
■ 85–100 year cycle
■ 28–30 year cycle (Mogey cycle)
■ 39–40 year cycle
■ 56–60 year cycle
■ 85–100 year cycle
These cycles frequently achieve high statistical significance (often 90%+ on Bartels tests) across independent datasets. Smith's chart above titled "Three Cycles Rising — Where Are We Now?" illustrates the combined phasing of the three most prominent cycles from 1975 to 2035:
Smith's analysis indicates that the three major war cycles will converge in a synchronized uptrend between 2027 and 2032, suggesting elevated risks of conflict, instability, and related phenomena into the early 2030s, with broader peaks potentially extending toward 2040.
» The tallest peak, and hence the strongest average cycle, is at the 4th fraction of 214 years (top scale), or 53.5 years (bottom scale). [...] Could this cycle be the well-established 54-year cycle? «Edward Dewey, 1967.
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE.
SUBJECT: Mr. Edward R. Dewey - Cycles Analysis.
SUBJECT: Mr. Edward R. Dewey - Cycles Analysis.
See also:
US corporations and financial institutions were striving to forecast, adapt to, and navigate the looming postwar economy.
The 32-Day Cycle: High-Accuracy Edge in S&P 500 First-Hour Structure
This 32-calendar-day cycle is a fixed periodicity in the S&P 500 cash index (SPX), in which ‘Early Highs’ and ‘Early Lows’ during the first 90 minutes (10:00 to 10:55 a.m., center time: 10:30 a.m. ET) of the New York regular trading session follow a precise pattern.
Projected Early Highs and Lows, Daily Bias, and Day-of-Week notes for the SPX (May and June 2026).
Empirically derived from Jeffrey Tennant's daily forecasts, this cycle demonstrates a 99.3% repeat rate (136/137 valid pairs) across a 13-month sample from late April 2025 through May 2026, spanning a full spectrum of typical market conditions.
[Note: The scope here excludes the MEJT system and focuses solely on the 32-day cycle (dates in blue).]
Early Low days exhibit a strong bullish bias, with Close > Open in 69.5% of cases (average return: +0.34%). Tennant frequently characterizes these sessions as 'typically bullish, with a final-hour high.' By contrast, Early High days show a mild negative-to-neutral bias over the sample period (average: −0.09%). This edge is materially amplified on specific weekdays: Monday Early Low stands out as the highest-conviction setup, with a 74.1% bullish close rate, an average gain of +0.45%, and the strongest asymmetry in the dataset. Conversely, Friday Early High represents the clearest cautionary signal (41% bullish, average: −0.17%).
Early Low and Early High Days Performance by Weekday.
■ Early Low has the strongest bullish edge on Mondays (74.1% positive days).
■ Early High on Fridays shows the clearest negative bias (only 41% bullish days, largest average loss).
■ Monday Strongest: +12.66 points (+0.19%).
■ Monday Calmest: 56.30-point daily range.
■ Thursday Weakest: -10.65 points (-0.15%).
■ Thursday most Volatile: 69.73-point daily range.
■ Monday Calmest: 56.30-point daily range.
■ Thursday Weakest: -10.65 points (-0.15%).
■ Thursday most Volatile: 69.73-point daily range.
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