Saturday, May 2, 2026

S&P 500 Forecast for May 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino

The primary forecast pattern for May.
 
The forecast focuses on market direction and timing rather than magnitude of price change. Key challenges in advanced cycle spectrum analysis (as implemented in Timing Solution) include Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT)-based spectral decomposition of price data into dominant cycles, which typically requires at least 3 years of daily observations for 30-day forecasting, with more than 5 years being optimal; pattern recognition; construction of composite cycle projection lines; and identification of initial directional biases for the upcoming month. There is also the inverse pattern, which is currently not favored. 
 
The inverse forecast pattern for May.
 
How the April 2026 forecast played out. 
 
Reference:
 

Seasonal Odds Favor S&P 500 Gains Next Week (May 2–9) | Wayne Whaley

The S&P 500’s performance during the week of May 2–9 (Sat-Sat) has historically been fairly neutral over the past 51 years, posting 28 advances and 23 declines for an average gain of just 0.09%. 
 
» Seasonal evidence alongside recent momentum points modestly in favor of higher prices over the coming week. «
 
51-year May 2–9 performance: mostly neutral (+0.09% avg; 28 up / 23 down)
Overall seasonal and momentum bias: modestly bullish for next week
First half of May often mirrors first half of April behavior
2026 April (Apr 1–16): strong +7.09% advance
Strong April (>1.68%) historically: 15 up / 2 down in following week
Weak April (<-0.45%) historically: 6 up / 11 down in following week
Closest strong April cases (2009, 2020) saw +5.89% and +3.50% gains
 
However, a broader set of seasonal studies suggests that stronger recent price trends tend to support continuation, implying a bias toward further gains in the coming week. Notably, the first half of May has often behaved similarly to the first half of April, reinforcing the relevance of the recent April setup.

In the data breakdown, May 2–9 returns are grouped into three 17-year categories based on the S&P’s performance from April 1–16 over the same 51-year history. In 2026, the index rose 7.09% during that April window. In the 17 prior instances where April 1–16 gains exceeded 1.68%, the S&P advanced in 15 of the following May 2–9 periods versus only 2 declines. By contrast, when April 1–16 was weaker than –0.45%, the next-week record flipped to 6 up and 11 down. More specifically, in the two historical cases most comparable to 2026—2009 and 2020, both with April gains above 5%—the S&P followed with strong May 2–9 advances of 5.89% and 3.50%, respectively.

The accompanying ratings system scales outcomes into -3 to +3 standard deviation bands on a -100 to +100 framework, with outliers down-weighted to better reflect typical behavior; readings below -50 or above +50 are treated as trade-alert conditions. While multiple non-seasonal factors can certainly influence market behavior, the combined seasonal evidence alongside recent momentum points modestly in favor of higher prices over the coming week.

Reference:
 
See also:

Friday, May 1, 2026

May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

The S&P 500 has posted gains during the first three trading days of May in 19 of the past 28 years.
 
Early May Strength Turns to Chop Until Late Month Pop.

Weakness often emerges around the May 6 (Wed),  May 8-12 (Fri-Tue), and after May 18 (Mon). The final four days usually post solid gains (May 26-29, Tue-Fri), though the last day of May has been notably weak.
 
In midterm election years, May typically starts higher but turns broadly weak by May 5 (Tue), with softness persisting through most of the month.
 
 
   
In the
Four-Year Presidential Cycle
, May of midterm election years has historically been the weakest,
with all major indices avg. declines: DJIA –0.08%, S&P 500 –0.63%, NASDAQ –0.76%, NYSE –1.19%.
  
His
torical S&P 500 data shows
 May averages just 0.38% gain since 1950 overall, but improves to 2.58% average and
9-1 record in the 10 years with April gains of 5% or higher, including the last seven straight positives post-1985. 
 
Sin
ce 1960 (or even 1950)
, when the S&P 500 closes the month of April at a new all-time high
monthly close, the remainder of the calendar years performance has never been negative.
 

The Sequence of the EU/UK’s Seven-Wave Crisis | Kirill Dmitriev

Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund (RDIF) and a presidential envoy, has outlined a forecast of cascading crises in the EU and UK beginning in May 2026. 
 
Dmitriev is signaling that, once the EU and UK accept the reality on the

battlefield—that Russia has prevailed—a new phase of cooperation
 based on trust and mutual respect could become possible.

According to this scenario, an initial phase of jet fuel shortages would be followed by broader disruptions in oil, gas, and fuel supplies, along with reduced availability of fertilizers and resulting crop and food shortages by the summer. This would ultimately lead to accelerated deindustrialization, a breakdown in currency stability, fiscal conditions, and debt markets, and culminate in a social and political crisis in the fourth quarter of 2026. 
 
 » Madness and a Kamikaze approach to an existential crisis. « 
Germany's Self-Destruct Pact: Merz Pushes Europe to the Brink.
  
» Awakening and Reset in 2027. «
 
Putin's top negotiator, Dmitriev, casually wake-surfing off Miami on December 27, 2025.
 
Dmitriev's narrative concludes by linking these potential disruptions to a broader "awakening" and systemic "reset in 2027." Is this part of a really smart Good Cop-Bad-Cop diplomacy psy-op, is this all actually heading toward total EU/UK defeat, followed by catharsis, mutual respect, and a prosperous future, or is it merely wishful thinking from a fifth column pro-West liberal?
Powerus, a US company, has secured a contract to supply interceptor drones to the US Air Force, though the quantity and total value remain undisclosed. Notably, Powerus is backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr.—sons of the sitting US president. The deal raises conflict-of-interest concerns, as it points to potential financial gain from military contracts tied to ongoing US operations in Ukraine and West Asia. War pigs gotta war pig? 
» What we’re looking at is a global struggle—the Great Game Renewed. It’s developing across multiple theaters, starting in the Arctic, where Russia effectively controls the most strategically important coastline for emerging trade routes. The middle layer is the Baltic states pushing toward escalation with Russia. Then comes Ukraine at the center. Below that are Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. At the bottom sits Iran. «

Although Western media prematurely declared Mali defeated, that collapse did not occur:  Malian Armed Forces and Russian Africa Corps airstrikes decimated al-Qaeda-linked logistics and neutralized leadership in Kidal, stabilizing northern front lines through April 2026.
See also:

Cosmic Cluster Days | May 2026

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) do not exhibit a consistent polarity or directional bias in financial markets. The 'noise channel' functions as a signal filter, with its upper and lower bounds defined empirically. However, swing highs and lows that form within the noise channel may still correlate with short-term market trends and reversals.
 
Cosmic Cluster Days  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel
   
Apr 29 (Wed) | May 03 (Sun) | May 05 (Tue) | May 07 (Thu) | May 08 (Fri) | May 12 (Tue) | May 24 (Sun) | Jun 04 (Thu)
 
 For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the concept, click [HERE].

Federal Funds Rates & Solar Activity: Projection through 2031 | Vladimir Belkin

The present study compares the serial years of the average solar cycle with the arithmetic mean values of the effective US Federal Funds Rate for the period 1955–2025. 

Serial Numbers of Solar Cycle years (1 to 13) and Federal Funds Rates (%) projected through 2031. 
 
[...] The correlation between the serial number of solar cycle years and average Fed rates is extremely strong, with coefficients reaching -0.999 during years 5–7 and 0.994 during years 1–5. The serial number for the year 2026 in the current Solar Cycle 25 is 7. [...] Consequently, the forecasted Fed rate for 2026 is [...] 3.052%. The forecasted Fed rate for 2027 is [...] 3.558%
 
[According to Belkin's methodology, the Fed rate should rise and peak in 2029 at around 5.5%.]

Reference:
Vladimir A. Belkin (January 1, 2026) -  Federal Funds Rates and Solar Activity (1955–2025): Evidence of a Very High Correlation.
[СТАВКИ ПО ФЕДЕРАЛЬНЫМ ФОНДАМ И СОЛНЕЧНАЯ АКТИВНОСТЬ (1955-2025): ДОКАЗАТЕЛЬСТВО ОЧЕНЬ ВЫСОКОЙ КОРРЕЛЯЦИИ.
[Note: As of May 1, 2026, the Federal Reserve has set the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%., with the most recent daily effective federal funds rate (EFFR) recorded at 3.64%.]

Monday, April 27, 2026

S&P 500 Dumb Money Confidence Enters Extreme Optimism | Alex Krainer

S&P 500 Dump Money Confidence (red line) has risen above 70%, signaling extreme optimism historically linked to consolidations or pullbacks. Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed Index sits at 67 (Greed), and Smart Money Confidence (blue line) stays perfectly neutral at 50% ahead of this week's major news, rates, and earnings.

 
This is not a bearish crash call but a contrarian warning. Dumb Money Confidence above 70% often marks trend exhaustion—leading to sideways trading, 5–10% pullbacks, or simply pauses before quarterly earnings. These sentiment indicators are statistically reliable over decades but can't time exact market tops. 

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Mein AI: Palantir's Karp Wants Us to Know He Has Big Plans | Tarik Cyril Amar

Once the Nazis were done, quite a few people started scratching their heads. Obviously one thing to baffle any sane observer was the sheer enormity of their crimes, accomplished, moreover, with frenetic, really start-up'ish drive and ambition in a mere twelve years: World War? Check. Genocides? Check. Bad hairstyle? Check.
 
» Subversion, surveillance, and violence. «
 
But then, there also was another puzzle: How could their self-besotted visionary-in-chief, hobby philosopher (with a bent to sinister German stuff), and obviously mentally less than stable wanna-be-genius of a leader have gotten a whole nation of, apparently, reasonably educated people to go along? And not just go along, but go along to the very, very bitter end.
 
That question was all the more disturbing in view of the fact that Adolf Hitler had not been shy about displaying his insanity and extremely bad intentions well before conservative elites installed him in power in 1933. Hitler’s book-length – indeed two-volume – manifesto of German fascism (AKA Nazism) Mein Kampf was published in 1925 and 1926, sold more than 12 million copies and was translated into over a dozen languages.
 
 
And those ready to brave its pathological me-me-me-and-HISTORY narcissism, daft hodge-podge ramblings about the better and the lesser parts of humanity, and brownshirt-bro bombast to read it through could not say that the future Leader had been concealing where he intended to lead Germany and, really, the world. 
  
Indeed, Hitler’s manifesto could have served as an all-alarms-howling, bright-red-lights-flashing-everywhere, get-the-strait-jackets-now warning. The main points of Nazi Germany’s evil to come were all there, laid out in general but with stunning honesty: empire building with industrial-strength brutality, extermination or at least slavery for those considered inferior and superfluous, and last but not least, eternal primacy of one master country – primacy, as we’d say now in American English – to be achieved and maintained by all and any means, because that country – in Hitler’s case Germany – was defined as superior to all others by definition and called upon to lead the world, forever.
 
  » Technofascism pure! «
Karp's Palantir Manifesto; April 18, 2025.
Palantir's 'Technological Republic' is the Mein Kampf of the
digital era. It argues for militarism, thinly-veiled racism and
letting elites run wild. It's a sick man's vision of the future.
 
 
It is one of those bitter ironies of history that Alex Karp, CEO of the very peculiar software company Palantir, who regularly refers to his Jewish family background and what it would have meant for him under the Nazis, has recently released a manifesto that also should serve as a warning to the rest of us. A summary of his longer tract "The Technological Republic" (co-authored with Nicholas Zamiska) – the second volume in the age of mass distraction and attention deficit, so to speak – the twenty-two point X post has provoked a great backlash.
 
Cas Mudde, well-known expert on the far right, has called it "Technofascism pure!(with an exclamation mark in the original). Yanis Varoufakis feels that "if Evil could tweet, this is what it would!(with another exclamation mark). Mudde has also called for a full stop to all cooperation with Palantir by European companies and government agencies. Even Eliot Higgins, founder of Cold-War re-enactment tool and Western information war front Bellingcat has been moved to – mild irony. How daring! (My exclamation mark.)
 
And these are not over-reactions. Karp's Palantir Manifesto really is an astonishingly open self-exploration of a very sick mind’s vision for the future of humanity, arguing, in effect, for an open-ended AI arms race (a big Kaching! for Palantir, by the way), bringing back German and Japanese militarism, racism masked as realism about cultural backwardness (as it happens, also a Nazi "Kulturträger" move, which Karp should have heard about in his German years), and, last but not least, letting our brilliant billionaires and new elites in general off the hook when they mess up, such as with on private islands having fun with a serial child rapist - that sort of thing. How unselfish.
 
Pal
estinian journalists from Gaza discuss the US tech giant Palantir and its role
in the Gaza genocide and its £240m contract in the UK's National Health Service.

It is also painfully, criminally badly written – plus ça change… – in a style that combines mock-Oswald Spengler Götterdämmerung kitsch ("The decadence of a culture or civilization, and indeed its ruling class, will be forgiven only if that culture is capable of delivering economic growth and security for the public.") with sheer non-sequitur inanity (Why, again, can’t we have economic growth and security without any of that "ruling class decadence"?).
 
There are passages that read like young Jordan Peterson – age 15 and on too much diet coke – trying to be deep, really, really deep for the first time: "Those who look to the political arena to nourish their soul and sense of self, who rely too heavily on their internal life finding expression in people they may never meet, will be left disappointed" and "our society has grown too eager to hasten, and is often gleeful at, the demise of its enemies. The vanquishing of an opponent is a moment to pause, not rejoice."
 
The USDA just handed Palantir a $300 million no-bid contract
to consolidate American farm data into a single platform
.
 
After the inimitable practice of America's war idiot-in-chief Don Tzu of Hormuz, Alex and his Palantir friends are giving us their I Ching of the tech dim. Lucky us: So much American primacy and then we get Silicon Valley meta, too!
 
» Palantir never rests. «
 
Yet farcical as Karp's manifesto is, it is, of course, a deadly serious matter. After all, we live in a world where Palantir has already risen to far too much power. Founded as a CIA spin-off after the oh-so-unforeseen terror attacks of 11 September 2001, backed by totally normal Epstein-buddy, "transhumanist," and antichrist-obsessive Peter Thiel, Palantir has grown into a bloody monster, combining, in true fascist style, the logics of efficiency and extermination with its software tools, such as Gotham, Foundry, or Maven, while mass-spying on everything and everyone it can, and systematically embedding itself in international business and government to become – or appear – indispensable.
 

Palantir – named after all-seeing magic stones used by the villains of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings (again: don’t say you weren’t warned) has already produced so much evil that a short worst-of-the-worst sample must do: The company has officially denied being involved in genocidal Israel’s use of AI to mass-murder Palestinians faster. Curiously enough, Alex Karp has, however, smirkingly admitted the fact in public. Regarding the deployment of Palantir’s targeting software deployment of Palantir's targeting software in the American-Israeli war of aggression against Iran, the company is not even denying it.
The real shift is about control. Once your money becomes fully digital, it's no longer just something you hold—it's something that can be tracked, restricted, conditioned, and limited. Then consider where this leads: carbon tracking, usage caps, and allowances tied to behavior—fuel, energy, travel, consumption. At that point, it's no longer about how much money you have. It's about what you're permitted to do with it.
The biometric prison will be GLOBAL. There are MANY commercials in Russia, just like this one, promoting the biometric track/trace digital ID, digital ruble, UN Agenda 2030/WEF-identical, tech-totalitarian, total-surveillance prison system. 
But Palantir never rests. While deeply and proudly involved in genocidal slaughters and imperialist warfare, it also subverts peacetime societies pervasively. In Britain, for instance, a backlash has set in against the state’s reckless handing over of police powers and extremely sensitive data (for instance, in the spheres of finance and health) to the American CIA-offshoot gone rogue. In Germany, Palantir systems are used for policing in at least three of its federal states, Hesse, North-Rhine Westphalia, and Bavaria. In the US, Palantir has, of course, already so deeply invaded the state that it does not only help it fight its criminal wars abroad but also, for instane, terrorize its migrants and some non-migrants, too, at home.
Indeed, Palantir is so evil that even its own employees are beginning to wonder if they might, actually, be the bad guys. Hint: Yes, you are. And we all know.
 
For the rest of us, that is, almost all of us on this planet afflicted by Silicon Valley: It’s time to believe them when they tell us to our faces that they are coming for us. Palantir is a clear and present danger to humanity. Its CEO is an extremely dangerous maniac, its mission is subversion, surveillance, and violence, and its only Achilles Heel may be that old nemesis of the wicked: hubris. The sort of hubris that makes you display your perverse mind and announce your horrible aims in a manifesto we should all call Alex Karp's Mein AI.
 
Quoted from:
Tarik Cyril Amar (b. 1969) is a German historian and geopolitical analyst focused on twentieth-century Eastern Europe, especially Soviet, Russian, and Ukrainian history. He studied at Oxford, the London School of Economics, and earned a PhD from Princeton (2006). He has taught at Columbia University, led the Center for Urban History in Lviv, and is now Associate Professor at Koç University in Istanbul.