Friday, October 23, 2026
Thursday, October 22, 2026
Election Mania: Brazil, the US, Israel, and the Rare Earth Crisis | Helena Glass
79% of Jewish Israelis adore Trump. 33% of Americans adore Trump. Amidst a slew of incoming elections, including in America and Israel, these two Stalinesque psychopaths are tied at the hip, until death do they part, as they each declare their respective election support for the other. The winners will be declared by ‘who can cheat the most’. And The Beat Goes On.
Julio Nery, Director of the Brazilian Mining Institute, stated, "Of every 1,000 potential rare earth prospects, only about 100 justify drilling and exploration. And out of those 100, you’ll end up with only two good projects. The success rate is not very high." The current target production of rare earths is 4,000 tonnes per year. US imports of rare earths from China make up 71% of its needs, at 10,000 tonnes per year. While the EU imports 25,000 tonnes—and appears to produce nothing.
» It is all one big club, and we ain't in it! «
Julio Nery, Director of the Brazilian Mining Institute, stated, "Of every 1,000 potential rare earth prospects, only about 100 justify drilling and exploration. And out of those 100, you’ll end up with only two good projects. The success rate is not very high." The current target production of rare earths is 4,000 tonnes per year. US imports of rare earths from China make up 71% of its needs, at 10,000 tonnes per year. While the EU imports 25,000 tonnes—and appears to produce nothing.
The Brazil runoff election is October 25th and remains hugely controversial. A Bolsonaro win would transform Brazil into an Israeli enclave, while a Lula win sustains the BRIC's. Just as the US Republicans declare that a vote that is not MAGA is a vote for communism, Netanyahu is running on the campaign, "I need to finish the job". That job is for American soldiers to officiate a regime change in Iran—which translates to boots on the ground. Which means a slaughterhouse.
The difference between US and Israeli elections is that the main candidate against Bibi is just a different face—everything else is status quo. It is odd that Israelis claim to be angry with Netenyahu for creating this overwhelming rise in antisemitism, yet will vote for the demolition of Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen through his successor, Gadi Eisenkot, former IDF Chief.
Both Eisenkot and Netanyahu have an interesting philosophy of what a Prime Minister’s role is within the governing body over Israel. They don’t campaign on economic issues, trade issues, or education—instead, their only policy is how they will deal with ridding earth of Palestinians and the Iranian government. Stances that the Israelis seem to defend via elections. Why?
Because Israel's war economy is booming, with 2025 growth at 3.5%—nearing a $1 trillion GDP, with a tight labor market. Since 2017, their GDP has doubled. Israel has the highest number of billionaires of any other country in the Middle East. War & Money. Of course, American taxpayers, via Trump, have handed over $36.25 billion to aid in Israel’s great growth spurt while Americans are in bread lines (January 2025 through September 2026).
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Comrade Build Nation (特朗同志) a.k.a. MAGA Traitor (MAGA 叛徒) a.k.a. Genocide Don (种族灭绝唐).
At stake for Trump are Brazil's rare earth minerals. Although Brazil is ranked 2nd in the world behind China for deposits, the only company actually mining is Serra Verde, which was sold for $2.8 billion to USA Rare Earth in September 2026. USA Rare Earth founder Pini Althaus, of Jewish ethnicity and a practicing Rabbi of Chassidic Lubavitcher, is also founder of Cove Capital, LLC. In 2025, after leaving USA Rare Earth, Pini launched Rare Earths Americas and opened permits in—Brazil.
Cove Capital is financing the Kazakhstan rare earth mine that Donald Jr. and Erik Trump are invested in through Affinity Partners. Junior's firm, 1789 Capital, took an ownership stake in Vulcan Elements, which was also awarded US taxpayer funding amounting to $670 million, plus a DoD contract. Vulcan buys rare earths from Energy Fuels Inc., which sources from HMS Mining, whose source projects include Kazakhstan, Brazil, and South Africa. It is all one big club, and we ain't in it!
Of the $2.8 billion price tag for USA Rare Earth’s purchase, the US Government anted $1.6 billion in cash and a $565 million financing package. The US application of rare earths is predominantly affiliated with weapons development, which utilizes six different rare earths for flight control, missile guidance, submarine propulsion, jet engines, and drones. 40% of imported rare earths are allocated for weapons and defense spending.
The difference between US and Israeli elections is that the main candidate against Bibi is just a different face—everything else is status quo. It is odd that Israelis claim to be angry with Netenyahu for creating this overwhelming rise in antisemitism, yet will vote for the demolition of Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen through his successor, Gadi Eisenkot, former IDF Chief.
Both Eisenkot and Netanyahu have an interesting philosophy of what a Prime Minister’s role is within the governing body over Israel. They don’t campaign on economic issues, trade issues, or education—instead, their only policy is how they will deal with ridding earth of Palestinians and the Iranian government. Stances that the Israelis seem to defend via elections. Why?
Because Israel's war economy is booming, with 2025 growth at 3.5%—nearing a $1 trillion GDP, with a tight labor market. Since 2017, their GDP has doubled. Israel has the highest number of billionaires of any other country in the Middle East. War & Money. Of course, American taxpayers, via Trump, have handed over $36.25 billion to aid in Israel’s great growth spurt while Americans are in bread lines (January 2025 through September 2026).
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At stake for Trump are Brazil's rare earth minerals. Although Brazil is ranked 2nd in the world behind China for deposits, the only company actually mining is Serra Verde, which was sold for $2.8 billion to USA Rare Earth in September 2026. USA Rare Earth founder Pini Althaus, of Jewish ethnicity and a practicing Rabbi of Chassidic Lubavitcher, is also founder of Cove Capital, LLC. In 2025, after leaving USA Rare Earth, Pini launched Rare Earths Americas and opened permits in—Brazil.
Cove Capital is financing the Kazakhstan rare earth mine that Donald Jr. and Erik Trump are invested in through Affinity Partners. Junior's firm, 1789 Capital, took an ownership stake in Vulcan Elements, which was also awarded US taxpayer funding amounting to $670 million, plus a DoD contract. Vulcan buys rare earths from Energy Fuels Inc., which sources from HMS Mining, whose source projects include Kazakhstan, Brazil, and South Africa. It is all one big club, and we ain't in it!
Of the $2.8 billion price tag for USA Rare Earth’s purchase, the US Government anted $1.6 billion in cash and a $565 million financing package. The US application of rare earths is predominantly affiliated with weapons development, which utilizes six different rare earths for flight control, missile guidance, submarine propulsion, jet engines, and drones. 40% of imported rare earths are allocated for weapons and defense spending.
Young Flávio at the Knesset: Confidential staff meeting, January 26, 2026.
Mining applications have been pouring in for the last year, with permits taking 5–10 years amidst massive environmental and Indigenous peoples’ issues. Environmental damage includes complete habitat destruction, radioactive waste, water contamination, and chemical byproducts. While China remains dominant in production and refining, Lula has taken a sovereign stance that applications consider refining in-state. 42% of applications out of 2,727 overall have thus far been made by foreign nations, including Australia, the US, and Canada. Bolsonaro has stated he would streamline the permit process.
The Downside of Rare Earths
"The minerals are never found in very high concentrations and are usually found mixed together with one another or with radioactive elements, such as uranium and thorium. The chemical properties of the rare earth elements make them difficult to separate from surrounding materials and from one another. These qualities also make them difficult to purify. Current production methods require a lot of ore and generate a great deal of harmful waste to extract just small amounts of rare earth metals. Waste from the processing methods includes radioactive water, toxic fluorine, and acids." ~ Science History Institute.In a world of hyper-technological advancement, replacing rare earth minerals has become a dominant theme. Extracting and refining processes can make them too costly, and a fine balance becomes essential. But the degradation of land makes the mines an environmental catastrophe that cannot be removed from the equation.
Reference:
Helena Glass (October 22, 2026) - Election Mania: Brazil, the US, Israel, and the Rare Earth Crisis.
Helena Glass (October 22, 2026) - Election Mania: Brazil, the US, Israel, and the Rare Earth Crisis.
See also:
Wide Spread 7, What's Next: Smaller Range, No Follow-Through
A Wide Spread 7 (WS7) occurs when a session's high-to-low range is the widest of the past seven sessions. In Toby Crabel's framework, narrow days signal contraction and wide days signal expansion. Traders typically use the narrow day as a setup for a trade at the next open. This study reverses the question: what happens after a WS7, and is the wide day itself tradable?
WS7 (gold-colored bars) in Natural Gas (NG). Oct 21, 2026: Widest range in 19 trading days.
It addresses four questions: how wide a WS7 is, in both range and closing position; whether it breaks out of a narrow day; what happens in the following session across 21 instruments (7 futures and 14 FX pairs, October 2024 to date); and how long runs of wide days persist. The main finding is that the next session has a smaller range roughly five times in six, while its close does not follow the wide day’s direction. WS7s are not rare: they occur in 14.4% of sessions, or about one in seven, roughly the rate expected if ranges were randomly shuffled. The WS7 itself is not an unusual signal. The recurring contraction that follows is the more significant finding.
WS7 (gold-colored bars) in the Mexican Peso (USD/MXN). Oct 21, 2026: Widest range in 8 trading days.
The Day Itself
A WS7 is a large day and an ordinary kind of large. The median is 1.71 times the day before it, 1.59 times the average true range of the previous fourteen sessions, and 1.53% of the price. A WS4 that never becomes a WS7 is milder, 1.41 times the prior day and barely over its recent average range. The WS7 is the widest session in a median of fourteen days. Two in three are the widest in twenty sessions or fewer. One in eight is the widest in more than sixty, and that tail is the climax, not the typical bar.
The WS4 row includes the WS7 days.
Up and down split evenly. The up day closes a median of +0.91%. The down day closes a median of −0.96%. The next session's average close is −0.04% after the up day and +0.10% after the down day. The range gives way. The price barely moves. The median giveback of the wide day's close-to-close thrust is 8% of that thrust, because the next day is too small to give the move back and too aimless to extend it.
Where It Comes From
The cycle is the useful part, and it runs in one direction. A tight day is followed by a larger day. A wide day is followed by a smaller one. That is Crabel's Contraction/Expansion Principle, the same cycle Larry Williams calls the Natural Cycle of Range Change.
Small Range, Then What: Same 21 markets and the same sessions.
Green: the next range is larger at least 80% of the time. Rose: the expansion has already printed.
An NR7 is followed by a larger range 82.8% of the time, at 1.46 times the narrow day. An IDnr4 is next, 81.4% and 1.44 times. An NR4 is 76.3% and 1.34 times. An ordinary day is a coin flip, 0.99 times yesterday. Futures, the majors, and the volatile pairs give the same ratios. The strongest cell is an IDnr4 on the futures: larger the next day 85% of the time, 1.48 times, on 254 sessions. Connors and Raschke built the inside-day (ID) and NR4 trade on that same fact: the coil is the setup, and the break is the next session.
That larger day is not, as a rule, a WS7. The session after an NR4 is a WS4 on 25.1% of days. The base rate is 24.8%. The session after an NR7 is a WS7 on 12.7% of days, against 14.4% on any day. The expansion is real, and it is modest. It is bigger than the coil. It is not the widest week of the month, and the coil does not make that outcome more likely. The definitions used here are his: a WS4 is the unique widest of four sessions, a WS7 the unique widest of seven, the mirror of NR4 and NR7.
So the setup is the day before. The WS7 is the result. Only about half of WS4 days were even preceded by an NR, an NR4, or an inside day (ID), which is how often those bars occur anyway. A wide day is not the signature of an IDnr4 breaking. It is just a wide day.
The Next Session
The session after a WS7 is narrower 83.9% of the time, and that range is 0.65 of the spike. Crude Oil does it on 90.9% of its 66 cases. The Yen (USD/JPY), the Swedish Krona (USD/SEK), and the Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) do it on about 88%. Nasdaq keeps its range the most and is still narrower 77% of the time. Another WS4 the next day is slightly less common than on an ordinary day, 21.5% against 24.8%. A second outside day (OD) falls to 3% from an 11% base. The expansion does not immediately engulf again.
Rose: the close continues 40% or less.
The close is the part that tempts a trade, and it does not pay. The next close follows the WS7 only 46.2% of the time. Two WS7 days in three finish in the outer quarter of their range. Those follow through 45.1% of the time. A close on the extreme is not a reason to hold.
The green cells on the right of that table are the exceptions, and they are small. Crude's up-close continued on 70% of 30 days. Bitcoin's down-close continued on 62% of 37, and the Swedish Krona's on 65% of 34. The Yen failed in both directions, 38% and 30%. Natural Gas printed the largest average up-close in the set, +6.86%, and the next session still went with it less than half the time. Same range cycle. Different next close. None of those cells is large enough to become a system.
An inside day (ID) does show up more often the next session, 28% after a WS7 against a 14% base. Part of that is arithmetic. A wide bar is an easy container to trade inside. It is still the contraction shape that becomes more common. An NR4 the next morning does not. It stays near its ordinary one-in-four rate, and when it does appear the spike is still inside its four-day window, so "narrowest of four" is easy. That is not yet a fresh coil.
Gold (GC), Oct 22, 2026, following NR7 and 4BNR on Oct 21 (gold-colored bars)—its narrowest range in 192 sessions: Before noon, GC had already transitioned into a WS7. Williams' Natural Cycle of Range Change in action. What’s next? A tighter range? A reversal up? A continuation down? An inside day (ID)? No prediction. No guessing. No rushing. Patience pays: Yesterday’s Crabel pattern sets up the trade. Enter at the next session’s open. The system is the order. Strategy is when to use it and how to manage it once on.
When a WS7 Streaks
A streak here means consecutive sessions that are each a WS7. The chance of another one does not grow as the run gets longer, and it does not shrink until the sample runs out. A second WS7 arrives 16.2% of the time. A third, 2.6%. A fourth, 0.46%. A random day is a WS7 14.4% of the time, so the label has almost no memory. About five of these days in six are the end of the run. Once one has printed, the expected extra length is 0.2 sessions.
Four in a row happened six times in two years, across all 21 markets. Five never did. The session after the fourth day was narrower than that fourth day in every case. In five of the six, the next five sessions all stayed under it. Nasdaq, in the first week of November 2025, is the one that made a new high range later that week. None of the six was a four-day trend. The close flips inside the run. Gold and the New Zealand Dollar against the Yen (NZD/JPY) rose for two sessions and fell for two, while the range kept making highs. The expansion is in the range. The fourth day is where it stops.
What to Do with All This
An NR7 or an IDnr4 says the next range expands against the coil about five times in six. That is the session to work. If today has already printed the WS7, the expansion you were waiting for has been spent. Do not arm another breakout because the range was wide. Expect something near two-thirds of that range on the next session. Stand aside, or switch to another instrument with a Triple-A+ setup.
Do not chase the close. Direction is a coin flip, slightly against the wide day, on futures and on FX together. Do not fade the whole move either. The next session only walks back a small fraction of it. Crude's up-day is the one continuation worth a look, and it is thirty days. The Yen is the close that fails most often. Neither changes the rule for the other nineteen markets. If a second WS7 prints, you are in the 16%. Take something off if you are still long or short from the coil. A third is one start in forty. A fourth is a list of six, and the next session contracted in all six. There was no fifth in this study window to wait for.
The next setup is the next real contraction, once the spike has left the lookback. An inside day (ID) the next morning is a pause inside a wide bar, not automatically a new NR4. A fresh NR4 or IDnr4 after that spike has dropped out of the window is the coil again. Then the cycle applies, and the trade is that next session, not the wide one you just had.
See also:
Crabel Pattern Occurrence Stats for 7 Futures and 14 FX pairs, October 2024 to date.
[ I wrote this Little Quartet because people keep asking, "Are you actually trading Astro, space weather, Gann, Bayer, cycles, Hurst
—all that stuff?" No. These are experimental musings. Curiosities. There is no edge. Systematic Trading is the real thing.
I use an Excel spreadsheet to scan Crabel patterns and made it public last week. Might be useful to some. ]
—all that stuff?" No. These are experimental musings. Curiosities. There is no edge. Systematic Trading is the real thing.
I use an Excel spreadsheet to scan Crabel patterns and made it public last week. Might be useful to some. ]
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Outside Day, What's Next: Contraction, Not Continuation
An Inside Day (ID) is contraction. An Outside Day (OD) is one form the subsequent expansion can take. Across 7 futures markets and 14 FX pairs, the expansion is real, but the Outside Day (OD) remains the minority outcome. Since January 1, 2020, an Outside Day (OD) has occurred in about 9–13% of sessions. After an Inside Day (ID), that rises to 14–24%.
Outside Day, What's Next? Crabel Pattern Statistics across 7 futures markets and 14 FX pairs, from 2020 to date.
After an IDnr4, the rate is usually a little higher, reaching about 30% on the Swedish Krona (USD/SEK). That is roughly twice the baseline rate. It is not a coin flip, and it is not a rule.
On the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), 42 of 184 Inside Days (ID) were followed by an Outside Day (OD): 22.8%, against a baseline of 12.5%. The other 142 were not. For the E-mini S&P 500, an IDnr4 did not improve the rate: it remained 22.8%. But it did raise the rate for the Dow (YM), from 22.3% to 27.5%; Gold (GC), from 18.2% to 27.1%; and most major FX pairs.
OD: A bar whose high is above the previous high and whose low is below the previous low, so the session takes out both sides of the prior bar. ID: A bar whose high is below the previous high and whose low is above the previous low, so the session sits inside the prior bar.
Futures show a cleaner pattern than FX. The E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq-100 (NQ), Dow (YM), Crude Oil (CL), and Natural Gas (NG) sit around 21–24% after an Inside Day (ID). The Euro (EUR/USD), Yen (USD/JPY), Forint (USD/HUF), and Rand (USD/ZAR) are closer to 14%. The pattern is the same, but the lift is smaller in FX pairs whose daily bars are defined by the New York session, even though the underlying market trades nearly around the clock.
Nasdaq-100 (NQ), Oct 20, 2026: Outside Days (OD) and Inside Days (ID).
What That Means
An Inside Day (ID) tells that the session stayed within the prior day's range. That is balance, not direction. The next session must make the decision. Crabel's framework is that contraction precedes expansion. The trade is the breakout in the next session, not a bet that the next bar will be an Outside Day (OD).
An Outside Day (OD) is the loud version of expansion: price takes out both extremes of the prior bar. But expansion can take quieter forms—a break of only one side, a trend day that never reaches the opposite extreme, or a move beyond the range that subsequently returns inside. Those moves can still deliver the expansion the setup was designed to capture. Waiting for an Outside Day (OD) means passing up most of the trades the pattern is meant to produce.
IDnr4 is the tighter version of the setup: the bar is inside the prior bar and has the narrowest range of the past four sessions. Crabel preferred it to an Inside Day (ID) alone, an NR4 alone, or an opening-range breakout (ORB) taken indiscriminately every day. The data broadly support that preference. In the table above, the Outside Day (OD) rate after an IDnr4 is usually a little higher than after a plain Inside Day (ID). But even here, an Outside Day (OD) remains the minority outcome.
Crude Oil (CL), Oct 21, 2026: Outside Days (OD) and Inside Days (ID).
What the Other Work Says
► Crabel trades the next session as a two-sided opening-range breakout (ORB) after an ID or IDnr4, unless the market is already running. In that case, he places the stop against the prevailing move and takes only the breakout in its direction. A wide-range day (WS) or an Outside Day (OD) means the expansion has already happened. It is not a fresh setup.
► Larry Williams treats the Inside Day (ID) as congestion and a potentially reliable short-term signal, but his published application is directional. In his course material, an Inside Day (ID) with a down close, when price was already below its level ten days earlier, was followed by a higher close the next day about 71% of the time in the S&P. That is a directional bias, not a breakout rule.
Williams' Outside Day Rule is a separate trade. An Outside Day (OD) that closes below the prior day's low is a buy; one that closes above the prior day's high is a sell. The logic is that the close signals rejection of the move beyond the prior extreme. Williams is fading the Outside Day (OD), not predicting that one will follow an Inside Day (ID) .
► Connors and Raschke took Crabel's IDnr4 setup and added explicit trade management. In Street Smarts, the rule is to place a buy stop one tick above the IDnr4 and a sell stop one tick below it for the next session only. If stopped out, reverse the position. If the trade is not profitable within two days, exit at the close.
Their central insight is useful: one can anticipate volatility expansion without knowing its direction. They also required a volatility filter—six-day historical volatility below half the 100-day reading—before taking the ID or NR4 setup (Street Smarts: The ID/NR4 Rules). The same idea appears in the popgun pattern, an Inside Day (ID) followed by an Outside Day (OD), and in the NR7-Inside hybrid.
Later tests of a plain 30-minute opening-range breakout after an Inside Day (ID) have not consistently outperformed taking the breakout every day. Contraction narrows the opening range (ORB), but it does not, by itself, guarantee a better close-to-close result.
What to Do After an ID or IDnr4
Do not enter on the bar that just printed. The pattern is yesterday's; the trade is in the next session. Prefer IDnr4 to a plain Inside Day (ID). The range is tighter, the contraction more pronounced, and in the Crabel Pattern Scanner sample the probability of a subsequent Outside Day (OD) is usually a little higher.
Use a two-sided breakout unless the intermediate trend is already running. If it is, take only the breakout in the trend's direction. A gap aligned with the run supports continuation; a break against it is the one to skip.
The entry is a break of the Inside Day's high or low, or a breakout from the Opening Range (OR) using Stretch—not a hope that the session will become an Outside Day (OD). If price breaks one side and holds, that is the trade. If it breaks both sides and closes back inside, the expansion has failed (Connors and Raschke's dual-stop version).
Expect an Outside Day (OD) roughly one session in four or five after an Inside Day (ID) in futures, and closer to one in six or seven in the quieter FX pairs. Size the trade for the more likely alternative. Most sessions will not engulf the prior range.
If the next session does produce an Outside Day (OD), the expansion has already occurred. Do not treat that bar as a fresh contraction setup. Williams would instead examine where it closed. A close below the prior low is his buy signal; a close above the prior high is his sell signal. That is a separate reversal trade, distinct from the breakout that followed the Inside Day (ID).
Stand aside when the Inside Day (ID) forms in choppy conditions with no established trend, or when the market opens beyond both sides of the range before you can execute the setup. The pattern is a contained session followed by a decision. If the market has already made that decision at the open, the setup is gone.
British Pound (GBP/USD), Oct 20, 2026: Outside Days (OD) and Inside Days (ID).
Inside Day, What's Next: Continuation, Reversal, or No Trade
An Inside Day (ID) is contraction and has two main interpretations: continuation or reversal. The context determines which is more likely.
► Continuation: When the market is already running, the Inside Day (ID) is a pause within the prevailing move. Toby Crabel takes only the breakout in the trend's direction, placing the stop against the prevailing move. A breakout aligned with the run favors continuation; a break the other way is a skip. This is the more common case, accounting for about six Inside Days (ID) in ten.► Reversal: When an Inside Day (ID) follows an Outside Day (OD), it marks a pause after expansion and may precede a turn. Larry Williams fades an Outside Day (OD) that closes beyond the prior bar's extreme: a close below the prior low is his buy signal; a close above the prior high is his sell signal. The Inside Day (ID) is then the contraction before a potential reversal, not a reason to chase the Outside Day (OD).
In either case, the signal sets up the next session's trade. The Inside Day (ID) itself is not the entry.
Inside Day, What's Next? Crabel Pattern Statistics across 7 futures markets and 14 FX pairs, from 2020 to date.
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars): Outside Days (OD) and Inside Days (ID).
OD: A bar whose high is above the previous high and whose low is below the previous low, so the session takes out both sides of the prior bar. ID: A bar whose high is below the previous high and whose low is above the previous low, so the session sits inside the prior bar.
Do Not Wait for an Outside Day
An Outside Day (OD) follows an Inside Day (ID) roughly twice as often as its 9–13% baseline rate, but it remains the minority outcome. In futures, the rate is generally around 18–24%. After an IDnr4—a bar inside the prior bar with the narrowest range of the past four sessions—the probability often rises further.
Green cells in the table above — 25% or higher after an IDnr4:
● Dow (YM): 27.5%
● Gold (GC): 27.1%
● Natural Gas (NG): 26.5%
● British Pound (GBP/USD): 25.8%
● Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): 27.0%
● New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD): 28.3%
● Swedish Krona (USD/SEK): 29.9%
Rose cells — 16% or lower after an IDnr4:
● Euro (EUR/USD): 13.7%
● Yen (USD/JPY): 14.3%
● Forint (USD/HUF): 14.5%
● Rand (USD/ZAR): 13.9%
● Yen crosses
Mini Dow ($5) (YM), Oct 20, 2026: Outside Days (OD) and Inside Days (ID).
The practical distinction is clear: favor the breakout when the IDnr4 signal is stronger, but do not wait for an Outside Day (OD) to engulf the prior range. That happens in only a minority of cases, even in the stronger markets. The breakout—not the Outside Day (OD) itself—is the trade.
Prefer an IDnr4 to a plain Inside Day (ID) when the setup is otherwise valid. If the market is choppy, with no established trend and no preceding Outside Day (OD) to frame a potential reversal, stand aside. The pattern is yesterday's; the trade is in the next session.
See also:
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