JPMorgan Maps and Times the Global Oil Supply Shockwave

JPMorgan commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva released a report on March 26, 2026 (no complete official  public version available) that outlines how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a progressive, region-by-region oil supply shock. As of March 30, 2026, this analysis remains the authoritative reference: 

 

East Asia and Asia-Pacific deplete first—while the Bab al-Mandab Strait remains open, Africa, Europe, and the Americas follow.

The global oil supply system has shifted from an abrupt flow disruption to a gradual inventory depletion crisis, with timing emerging as the central driver of economic impact. The report’s core projections—an initial gross supply shock of approximately 16 million barrels (MMbbl) per day tapering to around 10 MMbbl per day by April—continue to align with current developments.

Nature and Progression of the Supply Shock

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has stayed more than 95% below normal levels since the last regular commercial tanker departed on February 28, 2026. The shockwave propagates from east to west, governed by maritime distances from the Persian Gulf. Asia, which normally receives over 80% of the crude oil transiting the Strait, faces the earliest and most severe effects. Pre-closure shipments have been exhausted, resulting in rapid inventory depletion across the region. India experienced the initial impact, followed by Northeast Asian importers including China, Japan, and South Korea.

 

Southeast-Asia, Asia-Pacific, and Africa

Southeast Asian oil demand is projected to contract by roughly 300,000 barrels per day in April. Losses could exceed 2 MMbbl per day in May and approach 3 MMbbl per day by June if strategic reserve releases remain limited to individual national efforts. Africa is expected to encounter visible impacts in early April, with potential oil demand losses reaching 250,000 barrels per day should inventories continue to decline.

 

The Philippines declared a national energy emergency. 

 

Asia-Pacific Emergency Measures and Rationing

Several Asia-Pacific governments have implemented structured conservation and demand-management policies. The Philippines (population 117 million) declared a national energy emergency on March 24, 2026 through Executive Order No. 110 signed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Department of Energy has directed power-sector participants to adopt immediate fuel-conservation protocols, prudent load management, and generation-schedule adjustments. A four-day work week has been introduced for many government offices, accompanied by encouragement of remote work and reduced non-essential travel. Fuel imports from alternative sources, including Russian crude under temporary US sanctions waivers, have been authorized. 

The irony is that Australia is one of the world’s largest energy exporters—the third-largest
exporter of LNG and the leading seaborne supplier of thermal and metallurgical coal.

 

Australia (27M) holds approximately 36 days of petrol stocks, 34 days of diesel, and 32 days of jet-fuel inventories (figures from early March, now further drawn down). Nationwide rationing has not been enacted, though the government has temporarily eased fuel-quality standards for 60 days to redirect roughly 100 million liters of export-grade fuel into the domestic market each month. Service stations in some areas have introduced voluntary purchase caps, and national contingency planning for standardized stock reporting and potential future rationing is advancing.
 

South Korea (51M) has imposed a five-month ban on naphtha exports, effective March 27, 2026, to prioritize domestic petrochemical and refining needs. China has restricted overseas shipments of refined fuels to preserve domestic inventories. Approximately 5% of ethylene production capacity in Japan, South Korea, and China has shut down due to feedstock shortages.

Impacts on Europe and North America

Europe (450M) is projected to face pressure by mid-April, primarily through elevated costs and intensified competition for non-Gulf supplies rather than outright physical shortages. Natural-gas prices on the continent have risen to 55–58 euros per megawatt-hour, while airlines confront severe pressure from surging jet-fuel expenses. Slovenia has become the first European Union member to impose explicit fuel rationing, limiting private motorists to 50 liters per day.

 

North America appears latest in the timeline, with most Gulf shipments expected to cease arriving around April 15, 2026. The US (342M) is unlikely to experience direct physical shortages owing to its robust domestic production. The impact will manifest mainly through rising fuel prices and refined-product market dislocations. West Texas Intermediate crude has increased more than 40% in March and continues to trade approximately 10 dollars below Brent.
 

Mitigation Efforts and Global Responses

Gulf producers are expanding alternative export routes to mitigate the disruption. Saudi Arabia has increased flows through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu from 0.8 to 3.3 MMbbl per day, with potential to reach 4.7 MMbbl per day by April. The United Arab Emirates has raised throughput on its Fujairah bypass pipeline from 1.1 to 1.6 MMbbl per day. These workarounds replace only a fraction of the lost capacity.

 

A Russian tanker carrying 650,000 barrels of Urals crude arrived in Cuba on Monday despite
the US genocidal blockade of the island, providing limited relief for roughly 9–10 days.

 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has coordinated the release of 400 MMbbl from strategic reserves across its 32 member nations—the largest such operation in the agency’s history—with the US contributing nearly half from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has described the current disruption as the greatest threat to global energy security on record.

 

Geopolitical and Market Outlook

On March 26, 2026, Epstein's boyfriend announced a 10-day extension of the pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, extending the deadline to April 6. He cited an Iranian request for negotiations, noting that Iran had permitted 10 tankers to pass through the Strait as a goodwill gesture; Iranian officials, however, denied that any talks were under way.

 

Once again, the US war machine emerges as the foremost war profiteer.

 

Brent crude, which closed at $108.01 per barrel on March 27, now trades in the $111–115 range as of March 30, 2026. Macquarie Group has assigned a 40% probability to the conflict extending through June, a scenario that could drive Brent above $200 per barrel and US retail gasoline prices to approximately $7 per gallon. Wood Mackenzie has warned that a sustained Brent average of $125 per barrel throughout 2026 would be sufficient to trigger a global recession. 

 

The global oil supply crisis has strained aviation, agriculture, construction, and heavy transport sectors, prompting emergency measures in several Southeast Asian countries. Geopolitically, the disruption has enhanced the attractiveness of Russian overland export corridors and reinforced the strategic position of US LNG supplies in both Asian and European markets.

 

See also:

 SupplyStatus (March 28, 2026) - JPMorgan Maps Global Oil Shockwave from Hormuz Closure - Global Supply Crisis Timeline.

Stanislav Krapivnik (March 27, 2026) - No Energy, No Food: Global System Breakdown Begins.

TPR (March 23, 2026) - Crude Oil Long-Term Cycles Signal 2026 and 2028 Peaks Near $225–235.

'With the Help of God Almighty,' Yemen Intensifies 'Battle of the Sacred Jihad'

Statement of the Yemeni Armed Forces Regarding the Strikes on a Number of Sensitive and Military Targets
in Southern Occupied Palestine With a Salvo of Cruise Missiles and Drones – March 28, 2026

In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.

The Almighty said: "And Allah will surely support those who support Him. Indeed, Allah is Powerful and Exalted in Might." God Almighty has spoken the truth.

» Our second military operation in the Battle of the Sacred Jihad 
has successfully achieved its objectives by the grace of God. «  

In continuation of supporting and backing the resistance fronts in Palestine, the land of sacrifice and redemption; Iraq, the land of glory and opposition; Lebanon, the land of dignity and steadfastness; and Iran, the land of pride, honor, and defiance, and within the framework of confronting the Zionist plan in the region, and in carrying out of what was declared in the statement of the Yemeni Armed Forces dated March 27 of this year:

Ballistic missiles from Iran, cruise missiles and suicide
drones from Yemen target Israel. — March 29, 2026.

Our armed forces, with the help of God Almighty and reliance upon Him, realized the second military operation in the Battle of the Sacred Jihad, using a salvo of cruise missiles and drones that targeted a number of vital and military objectives of the Zionist enemy in southern occupied Palestine. This operation coincided with the military operations being delivered by our mujahideen brothers in Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and it successfully achieved its objectives by the grace of God.

Ongoing escalation—and why Yemen's entry
in the war could be a game-changer. 

The Yemeni Armed Forces affirm that, in conducting their religious, moral, and humanitarian duties toward the free people of the global Muslim community (al-ummah الأمة) on the fronts of jihad and resistance, and in response to the enemy’s crimes against the sons of the ummah, its peoples, and its countries, they will continue—by God’s help and reliance upon Him—to implement their military operations in the coming days until the criminal enemy ceases its attacks and aggression.

God is sufficient for us, and He is the best disposer of affairs; the best protector and the best supporter.

Long live Yemen—free, proud, and independent.
Victory to Yemen and to all the free people of the ummah.

Sana’a, 9 Shawwal 1447 AH

Corresponding to March 28, 2026.

Quoted from:
Brigadier General Yahya Saree, military spokesman for the Yemeni Armed Forces, March 28, 2026.

See also:

Stanislav Krapivnik (March 27, 2026) - No Energy, No Food: Global System Breakdown Begins.

No Energy, No Food: Global System Breakdown Begins | Stanislav Krapivnik

What is developing is not an "energy crisis" in the conventional sense. It is a loss of physical supply on a scale that the system is not built to absorb. A large share of global oil and LNG capacity is now either offline or severely impaired, and that supply cannot be replaced quickly because the infrastructure behind it is slow, complex, and highly specialized. We are not dealing with something that can be fixed by price signals or short-term policy adjustments. If the energy is not there, it is not there.

 

» And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, 

and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine. « 

Book of Revelation 6:6.

Infrastructure Cannot Be Rebuilt Quickly

Energy systems run on heavy, custom-built equipment—pressure vessels, pipelines, processing units—that take months to manufacture and even longer to install. If those systems are damaged, they cannot be repaired overnight. In many cases they need to be scrapped and rebuild. If upstream production is affected—wells, wellheads, reservoirs—the timeline stretches further. Redrilling alone can take months per site, and that assumes stable conditions, available crews, and functioning logistics. None of that is guaranteed in a disrupted environment. Even under ideal circumstances, restoring lost capacity is measured in years. 

» You can tighten your own belt, but when you see your children wailing and crying from hunger and there’s nothing you can do, that’s different. People pick up pitchforks, light torches, go to the city halls, and start burning things. We are going to see a lot of that. « 

The System Is Trapped in a Feedback Loop

The bottleneck does not stop at the damaged infrastructure. The global ability to produce replacement equipment is limited and concentrated in a handful of countries, all of which have their own demand. Manufacturing itself depends on energy, especially natural gas. That creates a closed loop: you need energy to rebuild energy systems, but the energy is what you are short of. So the recovery process is constrained by the same shortage that caused the problem.

Europe Is Structurally Exposed

Europe is in the most exposed position because it depends on imported energy while maintaining a large industrial base that cannot function without it. When supply falls short, the system does not adjust smoothly. It is forced into rationing. Governments prioritize households and critical services, and industry is cut first. That leads to forced shutdowns—chemicals, steel, fertilizer, glass—sectors that do not operate intermittently. When they stop, they stop completely. Some will not restart, because the economics no longer work or the supply chains around them have already broken down. This is how industrial capacity is lost, not gradually but abruptly.

 

» The first major trend is deindustrialization, depopulation of cities, and return to farms. The second is remilitarization, and the third mercantilism. In the future there will be regional trade blocs that are controlled by a local hegemon. We are witnessing the shattering of the old global order, and the emergence of a much more splintered multipolar system. « — Jiang Xueqin, March 10, 2026.

Fertilizer Is the Critical Link

Fertilizer sits at the center of the next phase. It is produced from natural gas, and without sufficient gas, production drops. When fertilizer becomes scarce or too expensive, farmers reduce usage. That directly lowers yields. Modern agriculture is not resilient to this; it is built on chemical inputs. At the same time, fuel costs affect every stage of farming—planting, harvesting, transport. So both key inputs are constrained simultaneously. The result is straightforward: less food is produced.

Food Systems Tighten, Then Strain

Food systems do not break instantly, but they tighten. Prices rise first. Then availability becomes uneven. Some goods become scarce, others disappear temporarily. Europe can buffer this for a time through imports, but it is still drawing from a global pool that is under the same pressure. If multiple harvest cycles are affected, the shortages become more visible and harder to manage.

 

 "They've been beaten to shit!" Epstein's boyfriend keeps

babbling about Iran wanting a 'deal.' — March 26, 2026.

 

"All the goals of the war with Iran have been achieved." 

US VP tries his hand at market manipulation. — March 26, 2026.

» The Pentagon is developing bold military options that could deliver a so-called "final blow" to Iran—ranging from seizing strategic islands in the Strait of Hormuz to launching ground operations against nuclear facilities. With oil above $100 a barrel, thousands of additional US troops deploying to the region, and diplomatic talks hanging by a thread, the most dangerous escalation scenarios are now firmly on the table. « — David Oualaalou, March 27, 2026.

Economic Contraction Is Inevitable

As energy and food costs rise, the economy contracts. Industry shuts down, jobs are lost, and consumption falls because people can no longer afford what they used to. This is demand destruction in its simplest form. It is not a choice—it is forced by cost. That contraction feeds on itself: lower output, lower income, lower demand. Under sustained pressure, this moves beyond a standard recession into a deeper, longer-lasting downturn.

Social Stability Comes Under Pressure

The social effects follow directly. Energy and food are not optional. When access becomes strained, people react. Lower-income groups are hit first, but the pressure spreads. We begin to see unrest, political instability, and governments imposing stricter controls—rationing, restrictions, prioritization of supply. Those measures can manage the shortage, but they do not remove it.

This Is a Multi-Year Problem

The timeline is the critical constraint. Even if conditions stabilize, rebuilding lost energy capacity takes years. That means the sequence does not resolve quickly. Energy shortages persist, industrial capacity remains impaired, agricultural output declines, and economic pressure builds over multiple cycles.

The Sequence Is Direct

The progression is linear and difficult to avoid once the supply gap is large enough: insufficient energy leads to rationing; rationing leads to industrial shutdown; industrial shutdown removes fertilizer production; reduced fertilizer lowers food output; lower food output raises prices and creates shortages; rising costs force economic contraction; and sustained pressure produces social instability. This is not a theoretical chain of events. It is the direct consequence of a system losing access to the inputs it requires to function.

 

Reference:
The Duran (March 27, 2026) - Energy collapse, supply chains WRECKED w/ Stanislav Krapivnik. (video) 

Stanislav Krapivnik is a Russian born former US army officer, energy and industrial supply chain specialist with direct experience in oil and gas infrastructure. He held senior supply chain positions at Cameron and Halliburton, managing sourcing and logistics for critical field equipment across Eurasia. He later worked in EPC project execution with Tecnimont, supporting large-scale refinery and LNG developments. His background centers on the manufacturing timelines, logistics, and operational realities behind global energy systems.

 

See also:

Alex Krainer (March 27, 2026) - The Hormuz Crisis Will Trigger the Worst Economic Collapse in 100 Years. (video) 

Jiang Xueqin (March 10, 2026) - New World Order: Iran War Ends US Empire. (video) 

Alexander L. Chizhevsky (2025) - Mass Excitability during Solar Cycle 25 (2019–2030).

S&P 500 in Wyckoff Markdown Phase | Major Low in July

In Wyckoff's Distribution Schematic, the S&P 500 (ES) has completed the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and Test of Upthrust (TOU) sequence near the upper boundary of the trading range (Phase D). 

 The blue circle marks the current location of the S&P 500.

 

Following the Last Point of Supply (LPSY – Return to ICE) and the Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW), the S&P transitioned into clear Failure to Improve and Markdown type price action (Phase E) outside the trading range (Phases A to D). The decline is characterized by repeated failures to reclaim prior support levels, expanding supply, and the absence of sustained demand sponsorship. 

 

The Eternal Recurrence of the Same Wyckoff Cycle.

Any rally and retracement in April will likely be choppy and shallow and reflect Re-Distribution within the current Markdown Phase, which is expected to resume into July or even October. Measured from the April 2025 low to the January 2026 high, the absolute minimum downside target for the ES markdown is the 50% retracement near 5,940; however, in 2026 a deeper decline of 20%+ to around 5,350 or 4,830 is far more likely.

 

See also:

Alex Krainer (March 27, 2026) - Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Branimir Vojcic (March 23, 2026) - S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low.

TPR (March 19, 2026) - 20-Week Cycle Low in the S&P 500 and US Stock Indexes | Major Low in July.

Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup | Alex Krainer

A contrarian signal is flashing for the S&P 500 near 6,477. Smart Money Confidence (blue line) is climbing to 0.6 while Dumb Money Confidence (red line) drops to 0.4. This split occurs amid Extreme Fear, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index at 18, despite broader bearish technicals and geopolitical volatility.

» Smart money confidence is growing while dumb money confidence falls. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index has hit
Extreme Fear. Yes, the setups across the board look ugly, but chasing shorts here is riskier than remaining patient. «

 

Historically, this exact divergence—rising institutional confidence against falling retail optimism—has preceded S&P 500 rebounds roughly 70% of the time, per SentimenTrader backtests. It suggests the current sell-off may be exhausted, offering a high-probability upside reversal once fear peaks.

Reference:
Alex Krainer, March 26, 2026.

 

March 27, 2026 Update: This level of Extreme Fear (10) has been seen at previous bottoms, including those that preceded bear market rallies in 2022. The shortest bounce before lower lows occurred in 2025. A bullish divergence is now appearing, which validates the thesis. 

See also:
Branimir Vojcic (March 23, 2026) - S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low.

 

 

May God’s Vengeance Rest in Iran's Mighty Hands: One Vengeance for All

 One Vengeance for All.

 

 As the US flees Iraq like a thief in the night, 
a twenty-three-year occupation is over.

 

May God's vengeance for the children of Gaza, the victims of 

Epstein Island, and the Minab school rest in Iran’s mighty hands.

 

April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Over the past 21 years (solid lines in the chart below), April has exhibited a pattern of steady gains starting around April 7 (Tue)(Trading Day 5) and continuing through the end of the month, with only minor fluctuations along the way. Overall, it has generally finished positive across the board.

 

Midterm election years since 1950 (dashed lines) show strength from April 7 (Tue) through mid-April only, followed by choppy trading that typically ends the month flat or in negative territory.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Weaker in Midterm Election Years.

 

S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

  

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Nicholas D. Savino (April 1, 2026) - April 2026 S&P 500 Forecast.