Solar Cycles and Inflation-Adjusted Gold Price Forecasting | Vladimir Belkin

Vladimir Belkin's latest study quantifies the relationship between solar activity and the inflation-adjusted price of Gold (1968–2025) within a Jevons–Chizhevsky analytical framework. By synchronizing real Gold prices with the ordinal structure of solar cycles—measured via sunspot (Wolf) numbers—it identifies a strong and statistically significant fit (R² = 0.9081, p = 0.0115), implying that approximately 90.8% of the variance in real Gold prices is explained by his solar-cycle model. 

 

Grouping of data by ordinal numbers of years in solar activity cycles (1968–2025).

 

Rather than implying direct causation, the results point to a cyclical transmission mechanism in which solar rhythms embed and modulate underlying economic periodicities, notably Kitchin- and Juglar-type cycles, thereby acting as a structural driver of long-term commodity price behavior.

 

Ordinal years of the mean solar cycle and inflation-adjusted Gold prices

(1968–2025); superposed epoch analysis of 58 years of observations.

The model integrates CPI-adjusted Gold price data with a superposed epoch framework, aligning multiple solar cycles into a normalized temporal structure and fitting a 6th-degree polynomial to capture the nonlinear progression of price behavior across cycle phases (chart above). This produces a phase-sensitive waveform that preserves both timing and amplitude characteristics of historical Gold price movements relative to the solar cycle. The robustness of the fit suggests a stable coupling between solar variability and macro-financial conditions—likely mediated through liquidity, inflation expectations, and broader cyclical economic regimes.

The study advances beyond descriptive correlation to a deterministic forecasting model. Each calendar year is mapped to its corresponding position within Solar Cycle 25, and forward price projections are derived using empirically observed year-to-year transition ratios embedded in the cycle structure.

Within this framework, 2026 (cycle year 7) implies a contraction in real Gold prices to approximately $2,536.35/oz (0.70 × $3,623.36), followed by 2027 (year 8) with a modest recovery to $2,587.08/oz (1.02 × prior year). 

This projected path is consistent with the transition from peak solar activity into the declining phase of the cycle, which historically coincides with reduced upside momentum, elevated volatility, or corrective dynamics in real Gold prices.

For the post-2025 horizon, the model therefore implies a nonlinear, wave-structured trajectory rather than a sustained directional trend: late-cycle topping behavior into the solar maximum, followed by cyclical deceleration into the late 2020s, and eventual reacceleration as the next solar minimum-to-maximum sequence unfolds. 

 

Forecasted development of the current Solar Cycle 25 (NASA).

 

These projections remain conditional on three factors: the accuracy of solar cycle forecasts, the stability of the regression relationship, and the interaction with concurrent macroeconomic cycles. Within those constraints, the framework offers a high-coherence, quantitatively grounded method for translating solar-cycle dynamics directly into forward estimates of inflation-adjusted Gold prices.

Reference:

Vladimir Belkin (July 1, 2026) - Solar Activity and the Inflation-Adjusted Price of Gold (1968–2025): R² = 0.91. 

 

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The extension of Belkin’s inflation-adjusted Gold price forecast through 2032 applies the same chaining methodology, using average ratios from column 5 in his table above and starting from $3,623.36 in 2025. Solar Cycle 25 began in 2019–2020 (2020 = Year 1) and is expected to end around 2030–2031, with Cycle 26 beginning. 

  

Inflation-adjusted Gold price forecast through 2032.

 

The resulting forecasts are 2025 at $3,623.36, 2026 at $2,536.35, 2027 at $2,587.08, 2028 at $2,664.69, 2029 at $3,011.10, 2030 at $3,462.77, 2031 at $2,735.59, and 2032 at $3,474.20. 

 

 

Inflation-adjusted Gold price will likely peak around 2033-2034.

  

The method is unchanged, with 2026–2027 matching Belkin's paper exactly. 2031 is the Cycle 25 minimum, and 2032 begins Cycle 26 using the average Year 1–to–Year 12 ratio. All figures are real (inflation-adjusted) and reflect the typical decline into solar minimum followed by a rebound. This is a statistical historical correlation; Gold prices are also driven by other factors, and Belkin’s solar cycle timing carries an uncertainty of about ±1 year.

 

See also:

Sergey Tarassov (2026) - Gold's 7.8-Year Cycle: Historical Analysis Since 1782. 

 NOAA (ongoing) - Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression.

July OpEx Since 1990: Friday –0.35%, Then Stabilization | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1990, July options expiration has been choppy, with the weakest performance on expiration Friday: DJIA and S&P 500 average –0.35%, NASDAQ –0.44%, and all three decline about two-thirds of the time. 

Expiration week is mixed—DJIA +0.38% (58.3% positive), S&P 500 ~flat (–0.04%), NASDAQ –0.13%. The following week stabilizes modestly (DJIA +0.15%, S&P 500 +0.09%); NASDAQ averages –0.17% but rises in 52.8% of years, skewed by a few large drops. Overall, July expiration tends to create brief downside pressure that fades as focus returns to earnings and fundamentals.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 14, 2026) - July Monthly Option Expiration: Weakest Friday, Modestly Better Following Week.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Christopher Grafton (July 13, 2026) - S&P 500 Update: 80-Day Cycle Peak by Late-July. 

Nicholas D. Savino (June 30, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026.

André Barbault's Cyclic Index and S&P 500 Behavior | Sergey Tarassov

André Barbault's Index of Cyclical Variations or Cyclic Index measures the balance between waxing and waning angular separations among planets, analogous to lunar phases—where increasing (waxing) angles are associated with more optimistic conditions and decreasing (waning) angles with more pessimistic conditions. The same principle is extended across all planetary angles, with heliocentric configurations preferred.

  

Heliocentric Cyclic Index vs. S&P 500.

Statistical analysis indicates that this index accounts for approximately 6.4% of S&P 500 price variation, representing a modest but notable explanatory contribution for a single indicator. Recent periods show that the index has maintained a consistent relationship with market movements. Further refinement, including the use of neural network methods, may enhance its ability to model optimistic and pessimistic market regimes.

Reference:
Sergey Tarassov (June 22, 2026) - Index of Cyclical Variations and S&P 500 Behavior.

Gold–Bitcoin: 75-Day Lead-Lag Relationship | Sergey Tarassov

Analysis of the relationship between Bitcoin and Gold suggests that Bitcoin may act as a leading indicator for Gold, with an estimated lead of approximately 75 days and a correlation of around 33%.  

 

This relationship allows for a potential Gold projection based on a time-shifted Bitcoin series. 

 

In the chart, the red line represents shifted Bitcoin data, while the bold blue line represents Gold's major 7.8-year cycle. Historically, Gold has more often been considered the leading asset, making this inverse lead-lag relationship an interesting observation.

 

Reference:
Sergey Tarassov (June 19, 2026) - Gold and Bitcoin: Lead-Lag Relationship Analysis with a 75-Day Shift.

Gold's 7.8-Year Cycle: Historical Analysis Since 1782 | Sergey Tarassov

Long-term Gold data from 1782 onward was analyzed with a focus on the approximately 7.8-year cycle identified through spectrum analysis. 

 The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection.

 

In the monthly chart above, multiple cycle scenarios are displayed alongside the Q-Box module projections. The majority of model outputs indicate an upward tendency through year-end 2026, followed by a projected decline through late 2028.

 

Reference:

Sergey Tarassov (July 4, 2026) - Gold’s 7.8-Year Cycle: Long-Term Analysis and Projection Scenarios Since 1782.

Crude Oil and the Half Solar Cycle | Sergey Tarassov

In Crude Oil, a cycle corresponding to approximately half of the Sunspot activity cycle (Sunspot Cycle 2H, ~2,007 days, or ~5.5y) appears to be present. The cycle is detectable through spectrum analysis and was calculated using an astronomy-based model that accounts for the irregular duration of solar cycles. 

The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection of Crude Oil through 2030.

 

Out-of-sample testing since 2020 shows that this variable solar-derived cycle maintains alignment with subsequent Crude Oil price movements.
 

Reference:

Sergey Tarassov (June 28, 2026) - Crude Oil and the Half Solar Cycle: A Variable Cycle Analysis.

 

See also:
Namzes (June 28, 2026) - Oil Outlook 2026: Navigating the Upcoming 40-Week Cycle Low.

Corn and Cotton: Long-Term Cycle Projections | Sergey Tarassov

Analysis of Corn and Cotton identifies a ~17.75-year cycle consistent with Edward R. Dewey's work, but also closely aligned with the 18.6-year Lunar Node cycle.

The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection of Corn through 2036.

 

Treated as an external and irregular cycle, projections built using the Lunar Node framework outperform standard spectral projections, highlighting the importance of adhering to method rules and analytical discipline.

The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection of Cotton through 2050.

In monthly Cotton prices, the commonly cited ~17.75-year cycle appears to be variable rather than fixed, evolving from roughly 17.4 years historically to about 19.3 years in recent data—closer to a 19–20 year Metonic-like rhythm. Modeling the cycle as dynamic and incorporating multiple overtones produces a more accurate representation of historical price movements than a simple fixed sine wave.

Reference:
Sergey Tarassov (July 12, 2026) - Corn Cycle Analysis: 17.75-Year Cycle and Lunar Node Influence.

Sergey Tarassov (June 17, 2026) - Variable Long-Term Cycle in Cotton Prices: Wavelet and Harmonic Analysis.

Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026 | Sergey Tarassov

Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution charts below correlate the S&P 500 with harmonics of the 41-month Kitchin cycle (currently averaging 1,267.7 days, or 3.473 years).

 

 Note: Based on daily closes, the plotted waves are band-pass–filtered components centered on the target periodicity

(Kitchin range) and subsequently smoothed via averaging/Fourier/digital filtering, suppressing high-frequency noise

and yielding a clean sinusoidal form. Accordingly, they lack utility for day trading or short-term execution.  

The cycle projections (green, blue, and magenta lines) for 2026 in the first chart suggest that the current sideways-to-down phase in the S&P 500 concludes by mid-late-July, followed by a strong projected surge into year-end, then a decline or retracement into Q1–early Q2 2027, and a renewed rise into Q1 2028.

The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection of the S&P through 2028.

  

The long-term chart (2021–2028) indicates an upward trajectory in the S&P 500’s Kitchin cycle into late 2026, followed by a sharp correction in Q1 2027 and a continued rise extending through 2027–2028.

  

Reference:

Sergey Tarassov (July 2026) - Kitchin Cycle and S&P 500.

[ To be honest, these are screenshots from a video from July that I can no longer find. ] 

See also:

Sergey Tarassov (2024) - Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025.

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - The Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. 

 

Kitchin (41-Month) and other Dominant Cycles across Assets and Sectors. 

 

Sergey Tarassov's table classifies each asset by its dominant cyclical drivers (e.g., Kitchin ~3–4y, Juglar ~9y, sunspot harmonics, Venus synodic, 7.8y Gold) and indicates which periodicities statistically dominate price behavior. The “Profile” column quantifies cycle influence, showing the proportion or confidence of a given cycle explaining variance (e.g., “Kitchin 100%” = primary driver). Overall, it’s a multi-cycle attribution framework used to build composite waveforms and time market turning points via overlapping periodic structures. "H" notation interpreted as harmonic components (e.g., 2H, 3H, 4H of Sunspot cycle). "Venus syn" → "Venus synodic" for clarity. Consistent cycle formatting: Cycle (length) where applicable. Ranges unified: e.g., 2H–4H instead of 2H 3H 4H. Missing profiles left blank (—) rather than inferred.

 

Key Cycle Periodicities. 

The second table standardizes all cycles of the first into approximate durations in days and years. Kitchin Cycle (~3.3y) ≈ Sunspot Cycle 3H (~3.7y) explains why they co-appear frequently in the dataset. Other key dominant drivers are: 5.5y (Sunspot 2H) → strongest macro-economic driver (confirmed in GDP note), 7.8y (Gold cycle) → dominant in FX + metals, and 9y (Juglar) → long equity + credit structure. Instruments with Kitchin + 3H Sunspot + Venus synodic (e.g., crypto, grains) tend to show high volatility clustering due to cycle interference.

S&P 500 Update: 80-Day Cycle Peak by Late-July | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: US Dollar Small Down (->80D trough). Gold Down (->20D trough). Oil Up (->20D peak). Copper Up (-> 80D peak). USDJPY Small Down (->80D trough). EURUSD Down (-> 20D trough). SPX E-minis Up (-> 80D peak). Nikkei futures Up (20D trough). Bitcoin Up (-> 20D peak). US Treasury Notes Up (20D trough).

  

S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) heading towards the next nominal 80-day cycle peak around late-July. Up.

 

US Dollar (DXY) close to an 80-day cycle trough. Small Down.

 

DXY is closing in on the next 80-day cycle trough. Price has just been rejected at the 20-day VTL, which likely marks the last 20-day cycle peak. Expecting minor pullback to the 40-day VTL and then further price expansion.

Bitcoin looking for the next 20-day cycle trough. Small Down.

 

In Bitcoin, the new 20-week cycle upswing is broadly driving price higher. We are looking for a soft pullback into the next 20-day cycle trough. 

Reference:
Christopher Grafton (July 13, 2026) - The Macro Brief - 13 July 2026.

See also:

Christopher Grafton (July 6, 2026) - The Macro Brief - 6 July 2026. 

Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Valid Trendlines (VTLs).
Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs). 

Nicholas D. Savino (June 30, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026. 

Wayne Whaley (June 29, 2026) - 25-0 S&P 500 Setup for June 26 to July 15. 

David Hickson (June 29, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin. 
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

"Barbault Basket": Known World Ends, New One Begins | Mark A. Shryock

The article "The World We Have Known Ends This July—a New One Begins" by Mark A. Shryock explores the "Barbault Basket," a rare, symmetrical astrological configuration peaking between July 19–21, 2026. 

 

 » The most beautiful and beneficial configuration of the 21st century. «

Phoenix—the firebird that burns, falls to ash, and rises again.

 

Five planets—Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto—will lock into a geometric pattern that French astrologer André Barbault spent his entire life trying to understand. He called it a "basket." It is a rare alignment in which the slow outer planets cluster in one section of the zodiac wheel while one planet sits apart, like a handle on a basket. Barbault believed this formation marks periods when civilizations reorganize themselves—when the old order breaks apart and something new attempts to take its place. 

 

This July, the basket he theorized will appear for the first time in the 21st century. Barbault rejected intuitive readings, focusing instead on tracking planetary data across centuries. He refined the Cyclic Index, a tool that sums the closest angular distances among the five outer planets, and discovered that low index values—signifying tight cosmic clustering—have historically aligned with global catastrophes such as the Black Death, the Spanish Flu, and World War II. 

 

The Barbault Basket (July 19–21, 2026)—a rare outer-planet configuration—Jupiter (~6° Leo) opposing Pluto (~4.5° Aquarius, orb ~1.9°), supported by tight harmonics: Neptune (4° Aries R) sextile Pluto (~0.2°), trine Jupiter (~2.2°); Uranus (2° Gemini) trine Pluto (~2.2°) and sextile Jupiter. Saturn (~14° Aries) anchors the Aries cluster.  A "basket/cradle" activating long cycles during the Cyclic Index ascent—signaling a pivotal civilizational shift: renewal, innovation, and collective reorganization after 2020s crises. Precise tropical longitudes confirm the symmetry—pointing to power shifts, creative breakthroughs, and spiritual-technological realignment. 

Using this system, Barbault famously published a prediction in 2011 that accurately identified a global pandemic window for 2020–2022. The upcoming July 2026 basket is distinct from the broader index, forming a precise 72-hour geometric pattern in which Pluto, Neptune, Uranus, and Jupiter converge at the 4-degree mark of their respective zodiac signs. In this configuration, Pluto, Neptune, and Uranus form a supportive “Minor Grand Trine,” while Jupiter in Leo acts as an opposing “handle” to complete the basket shape. 

 

Because this alignment simultaneously activates three major historical outer-planet macro cycles, Barbault designated it as the most beautiful and beneficial configuration of the 21st century, predicting it would trigger a "splendid re-launch of civilization" following the post-2020 global crisis. Culturally and socioeconomically, he believed this threshold would elevate the lower strata of the global population, alleviate severe poverty through international solidarity, and force humanity to choose between mechanical technological expansion and deeper spiritual evolution. This shift is further extended by a second basket configuration forming a year later, in June 2027.

 

The Sun's offset from the center of mass of the solar system

 (black dots on the left side of dates), 2025-2040.

Astronomically, Shryock notes that planetary alignments can shift the solar system’s barycenter over 800,000 km from the Sun’s center. Critics stress that any link between this asymmetry and human behavior remains unproven—likely apophenia or selection bias. Some classical astrologers add that the basket’s “soft aspects” may foster complacency and escapism as easily as constructive systemic change.

To understand how Barbault’s methodology operates, it is useful to examine both the specific zodiac signs activated in the 2026 alignment and the historical precedent of 1989. The July 2026 basket simultaneously activates four different signs at the 4-degree mark, a placement representing the most raw and emergent expression of their symbolic energies. Pluto in Aquarius drives the systemic dismantling of old collective power structures and the transformation of technological networks. Opposing this is Jupiter in Leo, acting as the basket’s handle to amplify creative expression, joy, and individual sovereignty following periods of collective trauma. 

 

Meanwhile, Neptune in Aries introduces a spiritualized dimension to human action, while Uranus in Gemini triggers sudden technological breakthroughs and reshapes collective communication systems. Barbault previously demonstrated the utility of tracking outer-planet configurations by successfully anticipating the geopolitical shifts of 1989. Writing decades earlier in his 1967 book Les Astres et l’Histoire, he identified that a rare triple conjunction of Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune in Capricorn during 1988–1989 would determine the geopolitical trajectory of the 21st century. He theorized that the world’s two dominant superpowers would simultaneously reach the end of their rivalry and merge into a single current. This mathematical forecast materialized in the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall.

 

The second basket configuration, forming in June 2027, acts as a critical continuation of the transformative threshold initiated in July 2026. According to the article, this alignment deepens the broader civilizational recovery while shifting the planetary emphasis through the introduction of different symbolic archetypes. Mathematically, the 2027 configuration involves the dwarf planet Ceres positioning itself at 6–7 degrees Leo, directly opposing Pluto at 6 degrees Aquarius. 

 

This tension forms the "handle" of the second basket, while Uranus in Gemini and Neptune in Aries create smooth, flowing aspects to Pluto at the same degree, forming the supportive base. Because Ceres represents agricultural fertility, cycles of grief, and nurturing, astrologers interpret this configuration as a pivot toward rebuilding, regeneration, and healing a fractured world. The transition suggests that while the 2026 alignment focuses on large-scale structural, political, and systemic resets, the 2027 configuration emphasizes the integration of feminine, matriarchal archetypes to ground and sustain those changes over the long term.

 

Reference:
Mark A. Shryock (June 29, 2026) - The World We Have Known Ends This July–a New One Begins.

Optimized Barbault War Index begins declining through the 2070s.

 

See also:

André Barbault (1990) - The Fall of the USSR: History of a Prediction.

TPR (2026) - 2026 Saturn-Neptune Conjunction: Global Ideological and Institutional Reset.

ICT New York Midnight Open (NYMO): How to Actually Use It | Darya Filipenka

Traders use the New York Midnight Open (NYMO) in different ways. This is my approach. It is grounded in ICT principles (see second video below), though my interpretation differs slightly (first video). The New York midnight open is not a standalone trading level; it is a contextual framework for understanding accumulation, manipulation, and distribution within the intraday cycle.

 

Black horizontal line represents the NY Midnight Open (NYMO).
Red shaded area: discount entry zone at FVG; Green shaded area: expected premium extension target zone.

Option 1: Breakout Continuation (FVG)
A strong body closure past NY midnight open sets up a trend play. Enter on the retest of the first 3m/5m Fair Value Gap (FVG or imbalance) formed after the break. Stop loss goes beyond midnight open or the nearest swing point; target 2R.

Option 2: Liquidity Sweep Continuation
Price wicks through NY midnight open but fails to close past it, indicating a sweep. Enter at the next candle open once an opposing order block (OB) forms to confirm continuation. Stop loss goes at the sweep swing point; target 2R.

Option 3: Weak Breakout Reversal
A weak closure or immediate rejection wick at midnight open signals a fakeout. Enter a reversal play at the next candle open once a counter-trend OB forms. Stop loss goes at the midnight open or recent swing level; target 2R.

Option 4: Higher-Timeframe Inversion
A strong breakout hits a higher-timeframe (HTF) key level, forcing a reversal. Enter at the next candle open when the initial breakout FVG fails and acts as an Inversion FVG (IFVG), aligned with an opposing OB. Stop loss goes at the HTF swing point.

A key misconception is treating it as a level to trade from. Price does not react to it because it is "magical"; it serves as a reference point. Its value is understood through the Power of Three: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. The New York midnight open often marks the transition between these phases.

 

ICT NYMO Explained.

 

Think of a sprinter: accumulation is the setup, manipulation the adjustment, and distribution the race. The move does not begin at the New York midnight open—it begins only after price leaves and holds away from it.

Stage 1: Accumulation

Defined by range-bound price with no clear direction or strong volume, often forming around the daily open. Intraday, price frequently consolidates near the New York midnight open. Position relative to the level is meaningless here; directional bias is not yet established and the dealing range is still forming.

Stage 2: Manipulation

The false move before the real move. Price may trade above or below the level to induce liquidity, but this does not define premium or discount. It is typically a setup. Price should interact with higher-timeframe levels and show a reaction, confirmed by order flow shifts or displacement. Once price completes this and returns through the level, manipulation is likely ending.

Stage 3: Distribution

The real move begins only after a decisive break and close beyond the NYMO level. Sweeps or consolidation indicate continued manipulation. A strong close, typically with displacement, confirms expansion. Repeated returns to the level signal that the range is still forming.

Dealing Range Perspective

The Dealing Range is the price range between a defined high and low that establishes premium and discount. The New York midnight open acts as the center of the developing range. Only after distribution begins do true expansion, clear premium/discount zones, and defined swings emerge. These cannot be traded meaningfully until price holds away from equilibrium.

 

Invalidation

If price fails to hold after a break, distribution is not active. Rejections (sweeps without close) and weak closes followed by reversals signal lack of confirmation. Strong, sustained closes are required. Continuous trading above and below the NYMO level without expansion indicates ongoing accumulation—best to stay out.

 

Invalidation Signal: If price fails to hold away from the NYMO, distribution is

inactive and the market remains undecided. Not every touch is significant. 

 

Retest Logic (Time-Based Behavior)

If the level is not retested between 3:00–7:00 a.m. New York time (range formation window), the probability increases of a retest between 8:30–11:00 a.m. If it is retested early, the range is often balanced and distribution may continue. If not, the level becomes a likely pullback or mitigation target, creating higher-probability setups.

 

How to Trade It

Wait for a strong close beyond the NYMO level, then look for a retracement into the first fair value gap; enter on reaction with risk beyond the level. Alternatively, treat sweeps as continuation setups with confirmation via order flow and structure, refining entries with candle sequences, order blocks, or fair value gaps.

If a break lacks conviction, wait for confirmation such as a break in opposing structure. In optimal conditions, combine a strong break, order flow confirmation, and higher-timeframe alignment. If a higher-timeframe objective is reached immediately after the break, favor reversal setups.

 

Some Extremely Useful Statistics

The following statistics can be used to align with what occurs between 3:00 and 7:00 a.m. to confirm a potential retracement.

► SPX / ES: If price opens at 9:30 a.m. above the New York midnight open, there is a 58% chance it will retrace to that level. If price opens below the New York midnight open, the probability of a retracement increases to 69%. 

► On Thursdays, there is a stronger tendency to retrace to the New York midnight open when price opens below the level. On these days, the probability increases to 88%.

► NDX / NQ: If price opens above the New York midnight open, there is a 57% chance of a retracement. If price opens below the level, there is a 63% chance of a retracement back to the New York midnight open.

► On Tuesdays there is a 67% chance of a retracement to the New York midnight open if price opens above the level, and a 73% chance of a retracement if price opens below it. 

► Gold: If price opens above the New York midnight open, there is a 47% chance of a retracement to that level. This idea should again be aligned with higher-timeframe levels and the 3:00 to 7:00 a.m. range—specifically, what occurs during that window. If price opens below the New York midnight open, there is a 51% chance of a retracement.

 Reference:

Darya Filipenka (January 14, 2026) - ICT New York Midnight Open (NYMO) Explained (video)

  

Michael J. Huddleston on how to use the New York Midnight Open.

 

See also:

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Silver Bullet Strategy. 

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT AM NY Session A+ Setup based on Quarterly Theory. 

Darya Filipenka (2022-2024) - ICT Concepts and Infographics. 

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Syllabus for Beginners - How to Study ICT on YouTube. 

Darya Filipenka (2023) - Unlocking Success in ICT 2022 Mentorship: The Smart Money Guide to the Full ICT Day Trading Model.