ICT New York Midnight Open (NYMO): How to Actually Use It | Darya Filipenka

Traders use the New York Midnight Open (NYMO) in different ways. This is my approach. It is grounded in ICT principles (see second video below), though my interpretation differs slightly (first video). The New York midnight open is not a standalone trading level; it is a contextual framework for understanding accumulation, manipulation, and distribution within the intraday cycle.

 

Black horizontal line represents the NY Midnight Open (NYMO).
Red shaded area: discount entry zone at FVG; Green shaded area: expected premium extension target zone.

Option 1: Breakout Continuation (FVG)
A strong body closure past NY midnight open sets up a trend play. Enter on the retest of the first 3m/5m Fair Value Gap (FVG or imbalance) formed after the break. Stop loss goes beyond midnight open or the nearest swing point; target 2R.

Option 2: Liquidity Sweep Continuation
Price wicks through NY midnight open but fails to close past it, indicating a sweep. Enter at the next candle open once an opposing order block (OB) forms to confirm continuation. Stop loss goes at the sweep swing point; target 2R.

Option 3: Weak Breakout Reversal
A weak closure or immediate rejection wick at midnight open signals a fakeout. Enter a reversal play at the next candle open once a counter-trend OB forms. Stop loss goes at the midnight open or recent swing level; target 2R.

Option 4: Higher-Timeframe Inversion
A strong breakout hits a higher-timeframe (HTF) key level, forcing a reversal. Enter at the next candle open when the initial breakout FVG fails and acts as an Inversion FVG (IFVG), aligned with an opposing OB. Stop loss goes at the HTF swing point.

A key misconception is treating it as a level to trade from. Price does not react to it because it is "magical"; it serves as a reference point. Its value is understood through the Power of Three: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. The New York midnight open often marks the transition between these phases.

 

ICT NYMO Explained.

 

Think of a sprinter: accumulation is the setup, manipulation the adjustment, and distribution the race. The move does not begin at the New York midnight open—it begins only after price leaves and holds away from it.

Stage 1: Accumulation

Defined by range-bound price with no clear direction or strong volume, often forming around the daily open. Intraday, price frequently consolidates near the New York midnight open. Position relative to the level is meaningless here; directional bias is not yet established and the dealing range is still forming.

Stage 2: Manipulation

The false move before the real move. Price may trade above or below the level to induce liquidity, but this does not define premium or discount. It is typically a setup. Price should interact with higher-timeframe levels and show a reaction, confirmed by order flow shifts or displacement. Once price completes this and returns through the level, manipulation is likely ending.

Stage 3: Distribution

The real move begins only after a decisive break and close beyond the NYMO level. Sweeps or consolidation indicate continued manipulation. A strong close, typically with displacement, confirms expansion. Repeated returns to the level signal that the range is still forming.

Dealing Range Perspective

The Dealing Range is the price range between a defined high and low that establishes premium and discount. The New York midnight open acts as the center of the developing range. Only after distribution begins do true expansion, clear premium/discount zones, and defined swings emerge. These cannot be traded meaningfully until price holds away from equilibrium.

 

Invalidation

If price fails to hold after a break, distribution is not active. Rejections (sweeps without close) and weak closes followed by reversals signal lack of confirmation. Strong, sustained closes are required. Continuous trading above and below the NYMO level without expansion indicates ongoing accumulation—best to stay out.

 

Invalidation Signal: If price fails to hold away from the NYMO, distribution is

inactive and the market remains undecided. Not every touch is significant. 

 

Retest Logic (Time-Based Behavior)

If the level is not retested between 3:00–7:00 a.m. New York time (range formation window), the probability increases of a retest between 8:30–11:00 a.m. If it is retested early, the range is often balanced and distribution may continue. If not, the level becomes a likely pullback or mitigation target, creating higher-probability setups.

 

How to Trade It

Wait for a strong close beyond the NYMO level, then look for a retracement into the first fair value gap; enter on reaction with risk beyond the level. Alternatively, treat sweeps as continuation setups with confirmation via order flow and structure, refining entries with candle sequences, order blocks, or fair value gaps.

If a break lacks conviction, wait for confirmation such as a break in opposing structure. In optimal conditions, combine a strong break, order flow confirmation, and higher-timeframe alignment. If a higher-timeframe objective is reached immediately after the break, favor reversal setups.

 

Some Extremely Useful Statistics

The following statistics can be used to align with what occurs between 3:00 and 7:00 a.m. to confirm a potential retracement.

► SPX / ES: If price opens at 9:30 a.m. above the New York midnight open, there is a 58% chance it will retrace to that level. If price opens below the New York midnight open, the probability of a retracement increases to 69%. 

► On Thursdays, there is a stronger tendency to retrace to the New York midnight open when price opens below the level. On these days, the probability increases to 88%.

► NDX / NQ: If price opens above the New York midnight open, there is a 57% chance of a retracement. If price opens below the level, there is a 63% chance of a retracement back to the New York midnight open.

► On Tuesdays there is a 67% chance of a retracement to the New York midnight open if price opens above the level, and a 73% chance of a retracement if price opens below it. 

► Gold: If price opens above the New York midnight open, there is a 47% chance of a retracement to that level. This idea should again be aligned with higher-timeframe levels and the 3:00 to 7:00 a.m. range—specifically, what occurs during that window. If price opens below the New York midnight open, there is a 51% chance of a retracement.

 Reference:

Darya Filipenka (January 14, 2026) - ICT New York Midnight Open (NYMO) Explained (video)

  

Michael J. Huddleston on how to use the New York Midnight Open.

 

See also:

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Silver Bullet Strategy. 

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT AM NY Session A+ Setup based on Quarterly Theory. 

Darya Filipenka (2022-2024) - ICT Concepts and Infographics. 

Darya Filipenka (2023) - Unlocking Success in ICT 2022 Mentorship: The Smart Money Guide to the Full ICT Day Trading Model.  

Record-Low Skew: Crash Insurance for Pennies Signals Top | Thierry Borgeat

The S&P put/call skew just collapsed to 0.71. Not a low. The lowest reading on record. The 10-year average is 12. The 2020 panic peaked at 34. We're at 0.71. What this measures: how much investors pay to protect against a crash versus betting on a rally. At 0.71, crash protection is essentially free. Nobody wants it.

The chart displays "S&P 500 Average Single Stock 1m Normalized Skew," a custom metric averaging 1-month normalized put-call skew across S&P 500 stocks, with the latest value at 0.71 (record low). History shows crashes follow low-fear periods as hedging fades. 

Think about what that means. After two years of gains, at record concentration, with households at record equity exposure, the options market has priced hedging like insurance on a house that cannot burn. History's lesson is consistent: markets don't crash when everyone fears a crash. Fear is the hedge. This chart says the hedge is gone. Nobody buys insurance at the top. That's what makes it the top?

 

Thierry Borgeat, July 6, 2026.

 

The skew signal is not always precisely timed,
but reliably foreshadows major trend changes.

S&P 500 Up into Mid-July 40-Day Cycle Peak | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: US Dollar Up (10D trough). Gold SmallUp (80D trough). Oil Pause (80D trough). Copper Up (-> 20D peak). USDJPY Up (80D trough). EURUSD SmallUp (80D trough). SPX E-minis Up (-> 40D peak). Nikkei futures Up (20D trough). Bitcoin Up (-> 20D peak). US Treasury Notes Up (-> 20D peak).

S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) - heading towards the next 40-day cycle peak. Up.

The 20-day cycle trough looks to have formed with the early June 80-day cycle upswing acting as a tailwind. We are looking for a move up into the next 40-day cycle peak.

Reference:
Christopher Grafton (July 6, 2026) - The Macro Brief - 6 July 2026.

See also:

Nicholas D. Savino (June 30, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026. 

Wayne Whaley (June 29, 2026) - 25-0 S&P 500 Setup for June 26 to July 15. 

David Hickson (June 29, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin. 
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Civil War Comes to the West | David Betz

Recognition of the possibility of civil war in the West exists in politics and related punditry and in a range of scholarship. Many people still deny or are reluctant to talk of it. Perhaps they fear a kind of ‘security dilemma’ that might occur; if people become convinced that civil war is coming because important people say so they might behave in ways that cause or hasten it. Equally, one might surmise, some know the truth but are factionally invested in the conflict and are simply positioning over who will be judged by history to have fired the first shot in it.

Henry Nowak, 18, was fatally stabbed in Southampton in April 2026 by Vickrum Digwa

and controversially handcuffed by police as he lay dying, ignited nationwide riots.

 

Neither, in my view, are credible positions to hold when confronted with the unfortunate reality. Theory is generally clear and convincing about the conditions under which civil war is likely to occur. Walton concluded that in any year just under four per cent of the countries in which the conditions of civil war were present would experience it. Accepting this, even as something of a pessimistic baseline, would suggest over the coming decade the collective West is in deep trouble. Moreover, there is little reason to hope that should one kick off in one major country its consequences would not spread more widely to others.

Civil War in Britain: The Why, The How, The When.
Colin Brazier, July 2, 2026.

 

Moreover, it is not simply that the conditions are present in the West; it is, rather, that the conditions are nearing the ideal. The relative wealth, social stability and related lack of demographic factionalism, plus the perception of the ability of normal politics to solve problems that once made the West seem immune to civil war are now no longer valid. 

 

Organized and directed polarization: liberal 'Left', radical 'Islamism', and 

patriotic 'far-right', all infested with Zionist agents, fanning the flames.

 

In fact, in each of these categories the direction of pull is towards civil conflict. Increasingly, people perceive this to be the case and their levels of confidence in government would seem to be declining even more in the face of the apparent unwillingness or inability of leaders to confront the situation honestly. The result, society-wise, is a reinforcing spiral calling to mind the opening lines of Yeats’ famous ‘The Second Coming’.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold…

The fact of the matter is that the tools of revolt in the form of various appurtenances of modern life are just lying around, knowledge of how to employ them is widespread, targets are obvious and undefended, and more and more formerly regular citizens seem minded to take the shot.

Assume—based on recent statements by credible national political and academic figures—that at least ten European countries face the risk of violent civil conflict. The table above lists fifteen; discard any five you consider least plausible. Even then, the probability of such conflict occurring in at least one of the remaining countries within five years is 87%—rising to 95% if all fifteen are included.

‘Normalcy bias’ is a concept originating in disaster management that refers to the way in which people sometimes fail to react in a timely manner to warnings of imminent danger. The defense establishments of the West ought to guard against a tendency to disbelieve or to minimize the threat of internal conflict. The matter is that conditions which are generally agreed to be indicative of the potential for civil war are vividly present across a range of states which have for a long time been thought beyond such sort of conflict.

      » Configured for civil war. « 

In June 2026, an attempted decapitation of an Irish Belfast man by a Sudanese 'asylum seeker' sparked viral outrage
that rapidly escalated into anti-immigrant riots, arson, and widespread disorder across Northern Ireland. 

Strategic studies may be quite caught off guard, moreover, for two other reasons. First, civil wars are little studied in the same manner as interstate wars. The literature on civil wars is extensive, including important works on its causation, resolution, social origins, outcomes, post-war rebuilding and so on; but it is rarely studied, as is ‘normal war’, from the perspective of military strategy—in other words, how it is or should be fought. The work of Stathis Kalyvas, the most astute contemporary observer of the ‘logic’ of civil wars, is a rare exception.

 

All ingredients in play.

 

However, second, even Kalyvas just over a decade ago concluded that in the long view, civil wars were in decline. His further point, though, was that civil war had undergone three major transformations over the last 200 years to, in the last instance, a form which he struggled to describe—one far less ordered and conventional. That form is becoming evident. To suggest that civil war is imminent and ascendant and precisely in parts of the world thought, heretofore, to be the wealthiest and least restive—is contrary to expectation—but that is where we are.

Quoted from:

David Betz (2023) - Civil War Comes to the West. Part 1 and Part 2.

Military Strategy Magazine, Volume 9, Issue 1, summer 2023, pages 20-26. 
Military Strategy Magazine, Volume 10, Issue 2, spring 2025, pages 6-16.  

 

See also:

David Betz (2025) - United Kingdom Configured for Civil War Within the Next 5 Years. 

Anthony Rubin (2026) - Replacing Europe: An Undercover Look at Mass Migration.

David J. Betz is Professor of War in the Modern World in the Department of War Studies, King's College London where he heads the MA War Studies program. He is also a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

The Nihilistic Moral Collapse of the West | Alastair Crooke

We are experiencing a complete nihilistic moral collapse in the West in so many ways. We have lost sight of what it is to be human. We are undermining civilization—our civilization and all civilizations—by these sorts of completely amoral actions that take place. 

 

We have to try to find a way of recreating a civilizational structure that provides the moral foundations for how people behave and who they are. They always come, basically, from the old myths and narratives of a civilization. These are the moral stories that create the architecture by which ordinary people steer their lives and live. And when you lose that, you are on a path to utter destruction.

» I keep hearing that we can't kill the leaders of another country when we're negotiating with them. I'm sorry, that's not how the rules work. The rules say we can't invite them to a negotiation, seat them at a table, and then go all "Game of Thrones Red Wedding" on them. That's against the rules.

But once they have shown that they're not going to work and that they're actually an obstacle to peace, then we have every right to go ahead and turn some of those people into their component molecules and fly some missiles through their windows to make sure that the rest of the people negotiating on that side know not to mess around with President Trump. And I can guarantee that the CIA and Mossad have a list of people to whom that could happen that is long and distinguished. That could be a good next step. « 

Jim Hanson, President, Security Studies Group (US national security think tank), July 2, 2026.

Jim Hanson is an example of someone on the path to having no moral standing at all, to suggest that it's fine to kill leaders of other countries. It's really very distressing to hear that, and it should be condemned clearly.

Alastair Crooke, July 3, 2026.

 

» They are all there! One shot and we take them all out. « 

Orange ape calls Ayatollah Khamenei's funeral a military opportunity.

An Epic of Collective Strength

Following the hyena's sudden attack, a momentary separation fast becomes a brutal test for the baboon troop. The infant is lifted from the sea of chaos, carried away from the center of the violence; the troop is drawing a boundary between the living and the dead. The loss is real, and the violence that follows no longer just a defense, but a response shaped by distress and fury.

The hyena is now forced to attack the troop. Even under mounting pressure, it does not yield easily; there is a stubborn force in it now, driven less by opportunity than by raw survival. The baboons utilize mobbing behavior, a high-stakes tactical display meant to overwhelm the predator's senses. With a calculated lunge, the hyena breaks the defensive line and seizes a mature baboon, its jaws locking onto the throat with mechanical precision.

It will not be deterred, and it will not let go. The struggle begins to slow as the victim's oxygen is systematically cut off. Death in the wild is a slow, heavy process of attrition. One individual remains by the body—an act of recognition that transcends simple survival.

 

For the troop, this is more than injury or defeat. The death of an adult carries a heavy toll. Even here, with the fight still raging, the dead are not simply left where they fall. The social bond endures beyond the moment of death itself.

 

But now, disaster strikes again as another baboon is seized, its hand caught in the hyena's lethal jaws. The troop has seen what this hyena is capable of, and that knowledge seems to pass through them all at once, slowing even those who, moments earlier, had surged forward. The injury is severe, and in social animals, suffering is not simply individual.

 

Around the wounded baboon, the atmosphere changes. Surrounded on all sides and forced to absorb repeated attacks, the hyena begins to lose the advantage that came with speed and surprise. A predator may be powerful, but prolonged conflict shifts the balance.

 

The strength of the baboons lies not in any one individual, but in persistence. As the hyena's strength gives way to fatigue and its once-powerful body begins to falter, the troop immediately capitalizes, launching a fierce retaliation for their fallen companions. The troop presses the advantage with a determination that leaves little room for escape.

What remains is a single, overwhelming force: the determination of the group to end the threat completely. The hyena is reaching its limits. Built for endurance and violence, it has survived by seizing moments of weakness in others; but now, surrounded and faltering, it is caught in the same harsh law of the wild it has long lived by. In the chaos, the hyena is brought down and pinned under the baboons' aggression. Wounded and spent, it no longer has the strength to get back on its feet. Its final growl scatters the attackers, but it is left behind with no path back to survival.

The Curse of Democracy | Russell Geoffrey Banks

How true it was when Plato said, "Democracy does not choose the best leader; it chooses the best liar." And this is why every single democracy fails eventually. Democracy does not reward wisdom; it rewards persuasion. The one who understands reality loses to the one who can manipulate perception. The honest lose to the charming. The dedicated lose to the theatrical. Plato said the heaviest penalty for decline in power was to be ruled by someone inferior.

 

 

 » Tyranny naturally arises out of democracy, and the most aggravated

form of tyranny and slavery out of the most extreme liberty. « 

Plato, The Republic, Book VIII, around 375 BC.

 

And that was not moral advice; that was the law of power. When competence withdraws, manipulation advances. When truth is costly, lies become efficient. And when popularity decides authority, deception is always the strategy. Democracy does not collapse from the outside. It hollows itself from within, and when the lies finally shake the system, the ending is predictable. The people don't resist tyranny; they beg for it. That's how bad things have to get: they beg for it.

Margin Debt at Extremes Threatens Sharp Equity Selloff

The NYSE/FINRA margin debt chart quantifies the total capital investors borrow against their securities portfolios to finance additional equity purchases. It operates as a procyclical indicator of market tops, typically expanding aggressively in the late stages of bull markets. At present, margin debt is approximately 53.7% year-over-year, reaching an extreme level of roughly $1.42 trillion.

67-year NYSE/FINRA margin debt YoY: 53.7% at $1.42T; historical tops align with rate

rollovers—not peaks—preceding S&P 500 highs in 1972, 2000, 2007, and 2021.

Historically, major market peaks (1972, 2000, 2007, 2021) exhibit a consistent structure: a rapid acceleration in margin debt into an overheated zone, followed by a reversal and subsequent contraction. The critical signal is not the absolute peak in leverage, but the inflection point after a steep rise. This reversal closely aligns with the formation of tops in the S&P 500. During the expansion phase, equities continue to advance alongside rising leverage; it is the sharp decline in margin debt that typically precedes market weakness.

 

S&P 500 (daily bars): Bearish Diamond or Bullish Pennant. Immediate breakdown or continuation to the upside.

Currently, the S&P 500 is trading near all-time highs, while margin debt has re-entered overbought territory. A confirmed reversal has not yet occurred, but proximity to critical thresholds is evident. Historical patterns indicate that once levels above approximately 55% are approached or exceeded, the probability of a trend reversal increases materially. While additional short-term upside remains possible, the onset of a downturn in margin debt is typically followed by an accelerated decline in equity markets.

 

The underlying risk mechanism is driven by leverage. Declining asset prices simultaneously reduce the value of collateral and the leveraged positions financed by borrowed capital. This dynamic can trigger margin calls and forced liquidations, producing a cascading effect that amplifies downside volatility. Elevated margin debt therefore acts as a systemic amplifier of market stress during downturns.

 

From a tactical standpoint, current conditions favor reducing long exposure and maintaining a bias toward short positioning. Strategic capital deployment is deferred until the anticipated correction has fully developed within the defined target range, where a more favorable long-term risk-reward profile and substantial upside potential are expected to re-emerge.

 

Philip Hopf’s Elliott Wave analysis indicates the S&P 500 has entered its terminal top zone, with residual upside capped at approximately 10% toward the upper boundary near 8,310. Within this range, the formation of a major cyclical peak is expected. Subsequently, a significant correction is likely, estimated at approximately 37% to 47%, implying a downside range of roughly 4,700 to 3,900. 

 

Reference:

Tierry from Arvy (July 1, 2026) - The Chart That Keeps Me Awake at Night (Margin Debt).

 

See also:

Nicholas D. Savino (June 30, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026. 

Wayne Whaley (June 29, 2026) - 25-0 S&P 500 Setup for June 26 to July 15. 

David Hickson (June 29, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin. 
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino

Here is the SPX July 2026 Forecast. Also posted is the inverse. The charts are not scaled for Price. This forecast correlates with the Bonds Forecast in that ~July 13 appears to be an important date for a Change In Trend (CIT).
 

Primary forecast pattern for July.

 

Inverse pattern for July, which is currently not favored.  

  

 

How the June Forecast played out: June has been difficult. The best right now in this

environment is that the forecast can show Change In Trend (CIT) turning points. 

Reference:

Nicholas D. Savino (June 30, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026.

[check for updates]

25-0 S&P 500 Setup for June 26 to July 15 | Wayne Whaley

After the S&P 500 fell 1.95% in the week of June 19-26, historical analysis identified the 25 closest matching weeks from the past 50 years, where that same period declined between 0.1% and 3.8%. 

In every one of those 25 cases, the index rose over the following 19 days (June 26–July 15), averaging +3.33% gains. Most showed only minor pullbacks, and in 12 cases the June 26 low held as the bottom. 

This pattern suggests a strong bullish tendency for the next couple of weeks based on history. 

Wayne Whaley, June 29, 2026

 

Key Turning Dates of the Solar Cycle vs. the DJIA, 1885-2015.

(Pesavento & Smoleny, 2015)  

 

See also:

David Hickson (June 29, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin. 
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin | David Hickson

This market update focuses on the danger of symmetry in cycle analysis. Across all markets analyzed—S&P 500, NASDAQ, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin—the central theme is consistent: the risk of symmetrical M shapes forming within a larger bearish cycle context. While not yet confirmed, multiple signals—failed targets, breakdowns below FLDs, and weaker second peaks—suggest increasing downside risk. Confirmation will depend on upcoming price interactions with key FLD levels.

S&P 500: The analysis builds on a major cycle trough at the end of March. In the prior update, the 80-day cycle trough was identified as likely complete. Cycles typically generate M-shaped price structures: an initial rise to a peak, a decline to a mid-cycle trough (e.g., 40-day), followed by a second peak and eventual decline into the larger cycle trough. The recent structure formed a distorted, bullish M shape, where the second peak was not symmetrical but elevated.

 

Topping in symmetrical 20-week M structure, likely heading into 18-month trough around late August. 

[current average cycle periods in stacked, color-coded boxes at bottom right.] 

 

Attention now shifts to the larger 20-week cycle, which is also forming an M shape. The first leg ran from the late-March trough to a peak, followed by a decline into the mid-June 80-day trough. A key analytical risk is symmetry: a perfectly symmetrical M shape typically indicates a neutral market. However, the presence of an upcoming 18-month cycle trough—expected around August—implies a bearish context. When a cycle concludes into a higher-magnitude trough, the resulting M shape is typically bearish, characterized by a lower second peak and a stronger decline.

Following the June 80-day trough, price should rise before eventually turning down into the 18-month trough. The concern is that the current price action may be forming a symmetrical structure, signaling weakness. Price has struggled to rally, reinforcing this risk.

 

Examining interactions with the 20-day FLD (Future Line of Demarcation), price crossed above it after the 80-day trough (an A-category signal), but failed to reach its projected target—a first bearish sign. Subsequently, during formation of the 20-day cycle trough, price broke below the FLD instead of finding support, marking a second bearish signal. While not conclusive, this raises the probability of a bearish cycle. The next confirmation would be a failed attempt to reclaim the FLD. 

 

 

The thick blue dashed composite model line, which reconstructs price behavior based solely on cycle inputs, illustrates the symmetry risk clearly: a period of compression followed by a breakdown into the 18-month trough. This model is not predictive but conditional—if cycles persist as analyzed, this is the expected trajectory. The broader context includes a 54-month trough in October 2023 and an 18-month trough in April 2025, with the next 18-month trough projected for August.

The NASDAQ mirrors this structure. Its 80-day trough formed slightly earlier in June, followed by a move above the 20-day FLD that failed to meet its target and then reversed below it—again producing two bearish signals. A symmetrical M shape is also forming here, with similar downside risk into the 18-month trough.

 

Mirroring S&P with a failed FLD sequence, rolling over toward an August 18-month trough.

 

A remote bullish alternative exists: a triangular consolidation could represent a final base, with price breaking upward and shifting the 80-day trough forward. However, this would imply an extended cycle length (around 87 days vs. the typical 68), weakening the analysis. Confirmation would require a strong upward move through the FLD with target achievement.

The Australian ASX provides confirming evidence through Hurst’s principle of commonality, which observes that global markets tend to form troughs synchronously. The ASX identified the 20-week trough earlier than US markets and also formed its 80-day trough earlier. It now shows a similar setup: a potential bearish M shape with a lower second peak and a projected decline into an 18-month trough around late July or early August.

 

Late-stage M structure with residual strength, direction unresolved but biased down into late July–early August.

 

However, the ASX differs in that it successfully achieved certain FLD targets and even exceeded one, indicating residual bullish strength. Despite this, it later broke below the FLD again, signaling vulnerability. The next expected interaction (E-category) will determine direction: success implies continued strength; failure reinforces bearish symmetry. Notably, the composite model underestimated the recent peak, suggesting more bullishness than expected and raising the possibility of misidentified longer cycles.

In Gold, a major peak earlier in the year has maintained bearish pressure. A potential 80-day trough was identified, but price failed to confirm it by crossing above the FLD. Instead, price repeatedly found resistance at the FLD (GH interactions), leaving the trough unconfirmed.

 

Unconfirmed 80-day trough with repeated FLD rejection, likely weak bounce before continuing lower over the near term.

 

If a trough is forming, it would imply an unusually long cycle (~93 days), which is plausible for Gold. Confirmation requires a clean break above the FLD and target achievement. The composite model suggests a near-term bounce followed by renewed decline.

Bitcoin presents a more complex case. The prior analysis suggested a 20-week trough may have formed in early June, but this remains uncertain due to subsequent lower lows. If that trough is valid, the current 20-day cycle is exceptionally bearish—an early warning of broader weakness. Price initially crossed above the FLD (A-category), but failed to reach its target and then broke below the FLD, producing two bearish signals.

 

Structurally weakening; either already in a bearish 20-week cycle or still topping, with downside 

pressure building into the next few weeks to months within the current 18-month cycle.

 

Alternatively, the 20-week trough may still be forming, in which case the earlier FLD signal was anomalous. Cycle timing supports this ambiguity, as current price action aligns with expected trough timing based on average cycle length (~19.6 weeks).

Zooming out, Bitcoin has followed Hurst cycle rhythms closely. A 54-month trough formed in late 2022, followed by an 18-month trough in August 2024 (~593 days, slightly extended) and another candidate in February (~547 days, near ideal length). If this structure holds, Bitcoin is now in the final 18-month cycle of the current 54-month cycle. The first 18-month cycle was strongly bullish, the second moderately bullish, and the current one is showing early bearish characteristics—raising concern that the broader trend is turning down into the next major trough expected in 2027.

 

Reference:
David Hickson (June 29, 2026) - The Danger of Symmetry - Hurst Cycles Market Update (video)

 

See also:
David Hickson (June 15, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, NIFTY, DAX, Gold, BTC.

Christopher Grafton (June 29, 2026) - S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) - heading towards the next 20 day cycle peak. Up.