The Turn-of-the-Month Effect: A Century of Empirical Evidence

The turn-of-the-month (TOM) stock market anomaly, where returns cluster heavily around month-end and early-month trading days, is validated by academic literature. Analyzing Dow Jones data from 1910 to the present using a relative trading day counter that excludes weekends reveals that while mid-month returns remain weak or negative, performance surges dramatically from the second-to-last trading day (day -2) through the fourth trading day (day +4) of the new month. 

 The TOM anomaly (-2 to +4 trading days) has delivered persistent outperformance

versus buy-and-hold with lower drawdowns across 116 years of Dow data.  

 

Segmenting this 116-year history into three 40-year periods (1910–1950, 1950–1990, and 1990–present) confirms consistent TOM outperformance across all regimes, despite a post-1990 dip on the final trading day skewed by rare macro anomalies like 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis. A systematic strategy trading this -2 to +4 window historically outperformed traditional buy-and-hold, generating higher profits with lower drawdowns during the 1929 crash, multi-decade sideways markets, the dot-com bust, and the 2022 bear market, showing historical flat periods often precede strong resurgences. The strategy's second-largest drawdown occurred in 2008, supporting the outlier theory. 

 

Hypothesized causes like recurring automated capital flows (salaries/retirement) and institutional rebalancing remain unproven, as trading volumes do not spike and automated systems did not exist in 1910. Lacking a definitive causal consensus, the TOM effect persists either as a structural confluence or an unexplained anomaly. 

 

See also:
Unger Academy USA (2019) - Trading Strategies: End Of Month Rally. (video)

Iran's Methodical Gutting of US Power in West Asia | Pepe Escobar

The ways Iran is dismantling the entire American military ecosystem across West Asia with an extremely disciplined strategy are something to behold. The whole CENTCOM support infrastructure is devastatingly fair game: from costly early warning radars to full air defense systems; from hangars to logistics hubs; from fuel and ammunition storage to forward operating bases; from naval and maritime surveillance assets to intel collection and communications nodes. [...] Iran knows where everything is located—to the millimeter. No need to go for flashy photo ops, Shock'n Awe-style, monopolizing the news cycle. What matters is the Chinese torture of steadily degrading the enemy's capabilities; the strategy is painfully methodical and painfully precise.

 

» Hitting one of those sitting ducks is being kept for the appropriate time. «

   

[...] The Iranian Way of War is a sophisticated mix that may eventually be studied in Western military academies. All logically interconnected—from destruction of enemy support infrastructure to steady degradation of intel, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities; from attrition of air defense and interceptor inventories to widespread disruption of logistics. And all that is supremely cost-effective—but certainly not for the attacking Empire, as every malfunctioning Patriot costs millions of dollars and simply cannot defend scores of different locations simultaneously.

» Iranian Way of War may eventually be studied in Western military academies. «

 

[...] In the bigger picture, the Russia-China-Iran interlocking strategic Eurasia partnerships remain in full effect. That's Russia-China in practice supporting the Axis of Resistance. Iran uses the Russian Murmansk system—inexorably jamming GPS and blinding US/Israeli missiles. Iran also uses Chinese BeiDou—the equivalent of GPS, unjammable by the Americans and rendering precision to the centimeter to Iranian missiles and drones. And Iran uses the Russian Kometa: electronic chips equipping missiles and drones wreaking havoc on American electronic warfare.

 

» Just check the satellite images. «

 

In a nutshell: this is how a systematic degradation of the whole regional architecture that allows the US and its vassals to project military power across West Asia looks. Played out in front of the whole Global South. The manual is available for all, live, in real time. [...] Iran's precision, restraint, and reach are shutting up the whole vociferating spectacle emanating from the Empire of Narratives, as Iranian missiles and drones relentlessly strike fighter jets, Black Hawks, data centers, logistics depots, power plants—and more.

Desperate Zionist gringo jingoism.

 

The Global South just needs to check the satellite images of proverbial craters across Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE. And Iran hasn't even started yet. Were Iran to obliterate Qatar’s remaining LNG trains, that would leave most of the planet with no LNG from Doha for at least a decade—not to mention the helium for making microchips.

 

Hello, ground invasion: Iran to receive QW-12 and FN-16 MANPADS from China.

The massive humiliation of hitting and disabling one of those multibillion-dollar sitting ducks is being kept for the appropriate time. And as everyone knows, Iran runs the clock, and time is on its side. None of that, of course, minimizes the risks of the escalation ladder; and we are still in the middle of what could become the Mother of All Escalation Ladders.

Quoted from:
Pepe Escobar (July 29, 2026) - The deaf, dumb and blind Empire of Piracy.

 

Lose Hormuz, Lose the Dollar, Lose Hegemony: Game Over | Jeffrey Currie

Jeffrey Currie, former Goldman Sachs head of commodities and a lifelong insider of the dollar system, defines the one red line America cannot cross: handing control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran is not a tactical retreat; it is the formal end of the US as a global hegemon and the death of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

For the Epstein class, the only acceptable Iran is one

that caves in to the hegemon and its dollar scheme.

In 1945, the US made a deal the world still lives under: it would control every major shipping lane with its navy, and in return, the world would use the dollar and recycle capital through New York. Oil was the strategic commodity that made the bargain stick. After Nixon broke the gold standard in 1971, that same arrangement evolved into the petrodollar system that still funds American living standards today.
 

» Give Iran the Strait, and the dollar dies. « 

If the US walks away and allows Iran and Oman to manage the Strait under any fee structure, the rest of the world will see that the big-stick policeman has quit. Every other chokepoint on earth immediately becomes fair game. The Fifth Fleet would then need Iranian permission to enter or leave its own base in Bahrain—an image that ends the illusion of global hegemony overnight.

Currie points to Switzerland, where a 30-year fixed mortgage can sit around 50 basis points because global capital floods into a perceived safe currency. That is the kind of privilege the US still enjoys. The country currently spends about 7 percent more than it produces; remove the forced global demand for dollars, and that gap becomes direct economic pain.

 

» We're fighting wars. It's not possible for us to take care 

of Medicare, daycare, Medicaid, all these things. « 

 Orange ape guns and butter salad, July 27, 2026.

 

History offers no comforting precedent. No previous hegemon—Britain, Spain, or any other—lost control of the world’s most important sea lanes and remained the hegemon. The US can retreat to a Monroe/Donroe/Technate of America Doctrine posture and control only the Western Hemisphere, but then it is no longer a global power and the dollar is no longer the reserve currency. 

 

Reference:

Jeffrey Currie (July 28, 2026) - Iran Rejects $6 Billion in Return for Free Hormuz Passage. (video)

 

"Iran Will Make Sure the US Economy Is Destroyed" | Foad Izadi

Iranian Professor Foad Izadi of the Department of American Studies at the University of Tehran’s Faculty of World Studies has just laid out the clearest statement yet of Iran’s official current thinking. After failed talks and repeated US aggression, a growing number of voices inside Iran no longer believe diplomacy can work. Iran’s answer is simple and brutal: raise the cost until the American economy itself is broken.

» Make sure the US economy is destroyed while Trump is the president. « 

 

That is the explicit goal now being discussed. Take 20 percent of the oil coming from the region, and prices stay high for at least two years. High oil prices for two years mean the end of Trump, the end of his presidency, and the end of the American economy—three goals at the same time.

» There is no diplomatic solution. Only a military solution. «

 

Negotiations have failed for more than 20 years. Every time Iran sat at the table, the US bombed the table. The problem with the US, therefore, has no diplomatic solution. It has a military solution. Continued attacks are needed to cause enough pain so this never happens again, and military deterrence is restored.

 

» They will go thirsty! «

Iran's plan to evict 50,000 US troops. 
 

Iran’s target list: oil facilities, hit hard enough that repairs take a long time; desalination plants that supply 98 percent of the water for Gulf countries. With 50,000 US troops in the region, if those countries lose water, the troops have no choice but to leave and drink water back home in America.

Why this level of force? For 46 years after the 1979 Iranian revolution, the US never attacked Iran the way it is attacking now. Only in the last year did the attacks intensify because Washington believed it could handle the cost. Iranians are tired of being hit every few weeks, losing civilians and infrastructure. Enough is enough. The cost so far has not been high enough. Trump keeps attacking. The equation must change.

 

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims to have inflicted well over 200 US military fatalities across targeted bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, with waves of missiles overwhelming and effectively neutralizing billion-dollar US defense infrastructure.

America ends wars when its politicians finally realize they made a mistake. That is how US wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan ended. Either the executive branch or Congress concludes the price is too high, and the funding ends. 

» The President of the United States wants to give Iran's frozen assets to companies and countries that have suffered damage in the war. From now on, we announce that any company or country that accepts this proposal will never be allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz. «

Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari, July 28, 2026.

The same logic is now being applied: force the realization that the current policy is destroying the US economy, and the policy will change. Iran has decided that only the language of force works. Raise the economic cost high enough, for long enough, and the United States will be forced to stop. This is no longer about limited deterrence. This is about breaking the American economy while Trump is still in office.

Reference:
Foad Izadi (July 28, 2026) - "They Will Go Thirsty": Prof. Izadi Reveals Iran's Plan to Evict 50,000 US Troops. (video)
Foad Izadi (July 28, 2026) - "Make Sure The US Economy Is Detroyed": Prof. Izadi’s Warning To The US. (video)

 

Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains | Seth Golden

Buying the S&P 500 on US midterm election day and holding until June 30 of the following year has produced positive returns in every instance since 1942, averaging roughly +16% with a range of about +2.5% to +30.8% across all cycles, regardless of which party controlled the White House, Senate, or House. 

 

 

» If you bought on Midterm Election Day, held through June 30th of
the following year the S&P 500 was higher EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. « 

 

Midterm years themselves typically deliver the weakest average returns (~4–5%) and highest volatility/drawdowns in the four-year presidential cycle, with weakness often concentrated in Q3/Q4 ahead of November; the rebound usually begins in late Q4. Nevertheless, cycle rankings place Year 3 (the post-midterm/pre-election year) as the historical "sweet spot," typically outperforming Year 1 (~4–7%), Year 2/midterm (~3–5%, weakest), and Year 4/election (~6–8%), with average gains often cited in the 10–17% range as incumbents frequently pursue pro-growth policies.

 

Reference:
Seth Golden (July 27, 2026) - Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains. 

 

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.

 

Predictable Zone in the Four-Year Presidential Cycle | Sergey Tarassov

 

Very strong and predictable zone based on the four-year presidential cycle. From August 2026 [late September?] to April 2027, the S&P 500 moved up 17 times versus 2 times down. 

Historical examples:

Reference:
Sergey Tarassov (July 29, 2026) - Predictable Zone in the Four-Year Presidential Cycle.

Russia Warns UK of Nuclear Poseidon Tsunami

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at a naval meeting yesterday (July 26) that Russia is finalizing the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater vehicle for service entry, indicating the system is nearing operational deployment. Poseidon is an unmanned underwater vehicle of about 100 tons, equipped with a nuclear propulsion system providing virtually unlimited range. 

A single nuclear-armed Poseidon torpedo can devastate a coastal city.

It can operate at depths exceeding 1,000 meters and reach speeds of up to 70 knots (around 130 km/h). The system carries a nuclear payload of up to two megatons and is designed to strike coastal targets such as naval bases and port infrastructure, either through direct detonation or by generating a large-scale radioactive tsunami. Owing to its depth, speed, and maneuverability, Poseidon is considered extremely difficult to detect or intercept, with Russian leadership asserting it has no global equivalent.

On June 14, 2026, UK Royal Marines seized the Smyrtos, a sanctioned 
Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker, in the English Channel. Full circle.

Perfidious Albion returned to its original trade: piracy.

  

Within this context, Putin referenced the potential use of Poseidon against the UK, framing it as a decisive strategic capability. He emphasized that while the underlying technologies exist, further refinement and adaptation to specific operational environments are ongoing. These statements suggest that, once fully deployed, Poseidon could be integrated into contingency planning involving high-value maritime or coastal targets.

Russian President at naval meeting, July 26, 2026.

In parallel, a Russian naval presence near the UK has drawn attention. On July 21, a Russian frigate conducted live-fire artillery exercises in international waters approximately 74 kilometers south of Plymouth, as reported by the UK Ministry of Defence and cited by the BBC. Initial warning shots were observed, and the Royal Navy, alongside a French military aircraft, closely monitored the activity. The French aircraft reportedly requested clarification of the vessel’s intentions via radio communication. Russia stated that the drills, which lasted around 30 minutes, were conducted in accordance with international maritime law and that nearby vessels had been notified in advance to maintain distance.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev warned that Russia retains all options to confront Britain, including the Poseidon nuclear-powered drone submarine, part of Russia’s naval nuclear system and described as a "Doomsday" weapon. The remarks followed Burnham's first meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on July 27, 2026. 

The frigate, identified as the Neustrashimy, was also reported to be escorting Russian tankers through the English Channel, where Russian naval transits are not uncommon. No injuries or direct engagements with other vessels occurred. However, the timing and location of the exercise have led to interpretations that it may have served as a strategic signal, particularly in light of recent political developments in the UK.

Ukraine targeted Iranian cargo ship and Russian oil rig in Caspian Sea, July 25, 2026.

Levante, Ukraine, Caspian Sea, Persian Gulf, Red Sea. Regional wars merging. 

 

The new UK leadership is pursuing a more assertive stance toward Russia and Iran, including closer alignment with the US, a posture perceived by Moscow as escalatory. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Russian military activities were conducted within the bounds of international law and denied any intent to issue a direct threat. Nevertheless, he stressed that repeated expressions of unconditional UK support for Ukraine have significantly reduced prospects for improved bilateral relations.

Meanwhile, In Sunny Greenland...

 

...an iceberg capsized off the coast of Ilulissat.

20-Week Hurst Cycle Low Due in SPX QQQ SOX SMH | Namzes

The last 80-day cycle bottomed on time (June 10). Semiconductor stocks (SOX/SMH) made marginal new all-time highs, while the broader indices—the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)—remained slightly below theirs.

PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX).

We are now due for a 20-week cycle low. July 17 marked day 109 and last Friday day 116, so a low may already be in, though it’s early to confirm. Alternatively, if this was only a 40-day low, the current 20-week cycle could extend into a late-August bottom. This would be the fourth bullish cycle in a row, increasing the likelihood that the next cycle is left-translated (bearish).

The subsequent 20-week low, following the August trough, is projected for late October, aligning with seasonal weakness and potentially offering a significant buying opportunity (see the April 2025 SOX projection).  A 3.5-year cycle (Kitchin Cycle) low is still expected ahead, but no major liquidation has occurred yet and models have not issued a sell signal. Market breadth remains acceptable; however, leadership—particularly in technology and semiconductors—is weakening, while defensive rotation is increasing, both of which are cautionary signals.

Using Hurst cycle analysis, the semiconductor ETF (SMH) is entering the 10-week FLD (Future Line of Demarcation). In a strong uptrend, this level typically acts as support; a break below would imply lower projections toward the 200-day moving average (200 DMA) and Q1 highs. For now, this remains a preliminary, low-confidence projection.

PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX).

The current 40-day cycle should continue rising for a few more trading days. The next 40-day low in August will help determine whether the new 20-week cycle is bullish or bearish. A bearish outcome would show early failure, indicating left translation.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

We are in a short-term downtrend, with the 50-day moving average (50 DMA) acting as a pivot near 600 on SMH. Above it, 620 is the key resistance level.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

 

Failure at 600 would open the path to liquidation toward Q1 highs, filling gaps below and repairing weak structure, including the large volume void between 420 and 537 (which includes the July 17 low).

 

Reference:
Namzes (July 27, 2026) - Hurst Cycles: 20W Low Due Across SPX QQQ SOX SMH.
 

See also:

Namzes (June 28, 2026) - Oil Outlook 2026: Navigating the Upcoming 40-Week Cycle Low.
Namzes (April 17, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.
Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.

 

Hurst Cycle Troughs and Peaks (November 2025 through July 24, 2026).

 

» The current 20-week cycle could extend into a late-August bottom. « 

Forward Cycle Projection through late 2026-early-2027.

Institutional Players Trade Levels—Retail Chases Price Action | Stacey Burke

All trading instruments operate within institutional price grids, where price is consistently contained inside an "institutional price box" defined by key numerical levels, typically anchored around major round numbers (e.g., 100, 250, 500, 1000). These levels act as liquidity magnets where large players accumulate, distribute, and size positions.  

 

» Pump, coil, and dump. The institutional price level is the neckline.

That is where the interaction matters, not the candle-by-candle narratives. «

Institutional players do not enter randomly or at arbitrary prices; they build positions around key levels and broader higher-time-frame zones shaped by mandates. They do not speculate. They do not day trade. They are engaged in global macroeconomic rebalancing, currency hedging, and sovereign capital extraction. Unlike retail traders, they execute large blocks of volume within these areas, creating an objective, non-random market framework visible across all instruments.  

 

»  Train your eyes to move horizontally at the levels.

What’s the level? Where to get in is staring you in the face. «

 

Markets move primarily through the behavior of Tier 1 and Tier 2 institutional participants: Tier 1 operators and their proxies (Bank for International Settlements (BIS), International Monetary Fund (IMF), central banks, sovereign wealth funds, major funds, and large liquidity providers) do not "trade." They do not use stop-losses nor technical indicators. They deploy capital in tranches so massive that, if executed at market price, they would break the global financial system. 

 

Tier 2 institutions (mega-banks like JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, UBS, LBMA, ICBC Standard Bank, major clearinghouses, highly sophisticated algorithmic HFT firms) provide liquidity, while hedge funds and other position traders operate around these key price levels. Their algorithms, including high-frequency trading systems, execute these processes; they are not interpreting candlestick patterns or trading short-term price action.

  

» The Dow 30 (5-minute chart) on Friday, July 16, 2026: Three levels of dump, coil, and pump. The Dow closed within an institutional price grid box, then dumped into the next lower grid level before exploding at the New York open—a trap on the open, then the shift. «

Higher-time-frame institutional price boundaries at major numerical levels act as triggers, attracting other position traders, hedge funds, and large market participants into the market. What appears as conventional price action, candlestick formations, and short-term market noise is often merely "retail fog"—a distraction that obscures the underlying institutional positioning and liquidity dynamics.

Order Flow Cycle.

The market continuously reveals these important price levels. There is nothing mystical or magical about them; they reflect the observable mechanics of liquidity, positioning, institutional order flow, and large-scale execution behavior. When liquidity is built, price coils sideways, and then it goes back and gets the money. The algorithm is there to get participation—to get you to play the game—and to build liquidity for the opposite side of the institutional agenda. The mechanism runs through those levels.

 

 

» If it is simple, you can repeat it, and scale it up in size. « 

It doesn’t matter what the instrument is. The behavior repeats: pump, coil, and dump—or dump, coil, and pump. The level is the neckline. That is where the interaction matters, not the candle-by-candle narratives.

Retail traders are obsessed with catching the low or catching the high. They're mesmerized by candlesticks and price action. A lot of traders are glazed over in a retail fog and don’t understand that institutions are not chasing fairy tales. The result is random, degenerate, emotional, impulsive behavior—winning streaks followed by blowing the account out. It's not about trying to figure out the algorithm; it's a mindset shift. 

 

Reference:

Stacey Burke (July 19, 2026) - Masterclass: The Only Trading Strategy You'll Ever Need. (video) 

Stacey Burke (2026) - Gold Apex Extraction. New York Session Institutional Blueprint. 

Stacey Burke (2022) - Best Trade Setups Playbook.

 

 

 » Price is always in a box. « 

 

 The Wyckoff Cycle.