Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Gold’s 7.8-Year Cycle: Long-Term Analysis from 1782 | Sergey Tarassov

Long-term Gold data from 1782 onward is analyzed with a focus on the approximately 7.8-year cycle identified through Timing Solution spectrum analysis. 

 
In the monthly chart above, multiple cycle scenarios are displayed alongside the Q-Box module projections. The majority of model outputs indicate an upward tendency through year-end 2026, followed by a projected decline into late 2028.
 
Reference:

Crude Oil and the Half Solar Cycle | Sergey Tarassov

In Crude Oil, a cycle corresponding to approximately half of the Sunspot activity cycle (Sunspot Cycle 2H ~2,007 days ~5.5y) appears to be present. The cycle is detectable through spectral analysis and was calculated using an astronomy-based model that accounts for the irregular duration of solar cycles. 

Out-of-Sample Projection of Crude Oil Prices to 2030.
 
Out-of-sample testing shows that this variable solar-derived cycle maintains alignment with subsequent Crude Oil price movements.
 
Reference:

Corn and Cotton: Long-Term Cycle Projections | Sergey Tarassov

A Timing Solution analysis of Corn and Cotton identifies a ~17.75-year cycle consistent with Edward R. Dewey's work, but also closely aligned with the 18.6-year Lunar Node cycle.

Corn projection into 2036.
 
Treated as an external and irregular cycle, projections built using the Lunar Node framework outperform standard spectral projections, highlighting the importance of adhering to method rules and analytical discipline.

Cotton projection into 2050.

In monthly Cotton prices, the commonly cited ~17.75-year cycle appears to be variable rather than fixed, evolving from roughly 17.4 years historically to about 19.3 years in recent data—closer to a 19–20 year Metonic-like rhythm. Modeling the cycle as dynamic and incorporating multiple overtones produces a more accurate representation of historical price movements than a simple fixed sine wave.

Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026 | Sergey Tarassov

Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution charts below correlate the S&P 500 with harmonics of the 41-month Kitchin cycle (currently averaging 1,267.7 days).
 
 Note: Based on daily closes, the plotted waves are band-pass–filtered components centered on the target periodicity
(Kitchin range) and subsequently smoothed via averaging/Fourier/digital filtering, suppressing high-frequency noise
and yielding a clean sinusoidal form. Accordingly, they lack utility for day trading or short-term execution.  

The cycle projections (green, blue, and magenta lines) for 2026 in the first chart suggest that the current sideways-to-down phase in the S&P 500 concludes by mid-late-July, followed by a strong projected surge into year-end, then a decline or retracement into Q1–early Q2 2027, and a renewed rise into Q1 2028.

 
The long-term chart (2021–2028) indicates an upward trajectory in the S&P 500’s Kitchin cycle into late 2026, followed by a sharp correction in Q1 2027 and a continued rise extending through 2027–2028.
  
Reference:
[ To be honest, these are screenshots from a video from July that I can no longer find. ] 

See also:
 
Kitchin (41-Month) and other Dominant Cycles across Assets and Sectors. 
 
Sergey Tarassov's table classifies each asset by its dominant cyclical drivers (e.g., Kitchin ~3–4y, Juglar ~9y, sunspot harmonics, Venus synodic, 7.8y gold cycle) and indicates which periodicities statistically dominate price behavior. The “Profile” column quantifies cycle influence, showing the proportion or confidence of a given cycle explaining variance (e.g., “Kitchin 100%” = primary driver). Overall, it’s a multi-cycle attribution framework used to build composite waveforms and time market turning points via overlapping periodic structures. "H" notation interpreted as harmonic components (e.g., 2H, 3H, 4H of Sunspot cycle). "Venus syn" → "Venus synodic" for clarity. Consistent cycle formatting: Cycle (length) where applicable. Ranges unified: e.g., 2H–4H instead of 2H 3H 4H. Missing profiles left blank (—) rather than inferred.
 
Key Cycle Periodicities. 

The second table standardizes all cycles of the first into approximate durations in days and years. Kitchin Cycle (~3.3y) ≈ Sunspot Cycle 3H (~3.7y) explains why they co-appear frequently in the dataset. Other key dominant drivers are: 
5.5y (Sunspot 2H) → strongest macro-economic driver (confirmed in GDP note), 7.8y (Gold cycle) → dominant in FX + metals, and 9y (Juglar) → long equity + credit structure. Instruments with Kitchin + 3H Sunspot + Venus synodic (e.g., crypto, grains) tend to show high volatility clustering due to cycle interference.

Monday, July 13, 2026

S&P 500 Update: 80-Day Cycle Peak by Late-July | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: US Dollar Small Down (->80D trough). Gold Down (->20D trough). Oil Up (->20D peak). Copper Up (-> 80D peak). USDJPY Small Down (->80D trough). EURUSD Down (-> 20D trough). SPX E-minis Up (-> 80D peak). Nikkei futures Up (20D trough). Bitcoin Up (-> 20D peak). US Treasury Notes Up (20D trough).
  
S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) heading towards the next nominal 80-day cycle peak around late-July. Up.
 
US Dollar (DXY) close to an 80-day cycle trough. Small Down.

 
DXY is closing in on the next 80-day cycle trough. Price has just been rejected at the 20-day VTL, which likely marks the last 20-day cycle peak. Expecting minor pullback to the 40-day VTL and then further price expansion.

Bitcoin looking for the next 20-day cycle trough. Small Down.

 
In Bitcoin, the new 20-week cycle upswing is broadly driving price higher. We are looking for a soft pullback into the next 20-day cycle trough. 

"Barbault Basket": Known World Ends, New One Begins | Mark A. Shryock

The article "The World We Have Known Ends This July—a New One Begins" by Mark A. Shryock explores the "Barbault Basket," a rare, symmetrical astrological configuration peaking between July 19–21, 2026. 
 
 » The most beautiful and beneficial configuration of the 21st century. «
Five planets—Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto—will lock into a geometric pattern that French astrologer André Barbault spent his entire life trying to understand. He called it a "basket." It is a rare alignment in which the slow outer planets cluster in one section of the zodiac wheel while one planet sits apart, like a handle on a basket. Barbault believed this formation marks periods when civilizations reorganize themselves—when the old order breaks apart and something new attempts to take its place. 
 
This July, the basket he theorized will appear for the first time in the 21st century. Barbault rejected intuitive readings, focusing instead on tracking planetary data across centuries. He refined the Cyclic Index, a tool that sums the closest angular distances among the five outer planets, and discovered that low index values—signifying tight cosmic clustering—have historically aligned with global catastrophes such as the Black Death, the Spanish Flu, and World War II. 
 
The Barbault Basket (July 19–21, 2026): Jupiter (~6° Leo) opposing Pluto (~4.5° Aquarius, orb ~1.9°), supported by tight harmonics: Neptune (4° Aries R) sextile Pluto (~0.2°), trine Jupiter (~2.2°); Uranus (2° Gemini) trine Pluto (~2.2°) and sextile Jupiter. Saturn (~14° Aries) anchors the Aries cluster.
The Barbault Basket (July 19–21, 2026)a rare outer-planet configuration—Jupiter (~6° Leo) opposing Pluto (~4.5° Aquarius, orb ~1.9°), supported by tight harmonics: Neptune (4° Aries R) sextile Pluto (~0.2°), trine Jupiter (~2.2°); Uranus (2° Gemini) trine Pluto (~2.2°) and sextile Jupiter. Saturn (~14° Aries) anchors the Aries cluster.  A "basket/cradle" activating long cycles during the Cyclic Index ascent—signaling a pivotal civilizational shift: renewal, innovation, and collective reorganization after 2020s crises. Precise tropical longitudes confirm the symmetry—pointing to power shifts, creative breakthroughs, and spiritual-technological realignment. 
Using this system, Barbault famously published a prediction in 2011 that accurately identified a global pandemic window for 2020–2022. The upcoming July 2026 basket is distinct from the broader index, forming a precise 72-hour geometric pattern in which Pluto, Neptune, Uranus, and Jupiter converge at the 4-degree mark of their respective zodiac signs. In this configuration, Pluto, Neptune, and Uranus form a supportive “Minor Grand Trine,” while Jupiter in Leo acts as an opposing “handle” to complete the basket shape. 
 
Because this alignment simultaneously activates three major historical outer-planet macro cycles, Barbault designated it as the most beautiful and beneficial configuration of the 21st century, predicting it would trigger a "splendid re-launch of civilization" following the post-2020 global crisis. Culturally and socioeconomically, he believed this threshold would elevate the lower strata of the global population, alleviate severe poverty through international solidarity, and force humanity to choose between mechanical technological expansion and deeper spiritual evolution. This shift is further extended by a second basket configuration forming a year later, in June 2027.
 
The Sun's offset from the center of mass of the solar system
 (black dots on the left side of dates), 2025-2040.
Astronomically, Shryock notes that planetary alignments can shift the solar system’s barycenter over 800,000 km from the Sun’s center. Critics stress that any link between this asymmetry and human behavior remains unproven—likely apophenia or selection bias. Some classical astrologers add that the basket’s “soft aspects” may foster complacency and escapism as easily as constructive systemic change.
To understand how Barbault’s methodology operates, it is useful to examine both the specific zodiac signs activated in the 2026 alignment and the historical precedent of 1989. The July 2026 basket simultaneously activates four different signs at the 4-degree mark, a placement representing the most raw and emergent expression of their symbolic energies. Pluto in Aquarius drives the systemic dismantling of old collective power structures and the transformation of technological networks. Opposing this is Jupiter in Leo, acting as the basket’s handle to amplify creative expression, joy, and individual sovereignty following periods of collective trauma. 
 
Meanwhile, Neptune in Aries introduces a spiritualized dimension to human action, while Uranus in Gemini triggers sudden technological breakthroughs and reshapes collective communication systems. Barbault previously demonstrated the utility of tracking outer-planet configurations by successfully anticipating the geopolitical shifts of 1989. Writing decades earlier in his 1967 book Les Astres et l’Histoire, he identified that a rare triple conjunction of Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune in Capricorn during 1988–1989 would determine the geopolitical trajectory of the 21st century. He theorized that the world’s two dominant superpowers would simultaneously reach the end of their rivalry and merge into a single current. This mathematical forecast materialized in the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall.
 
The second basket configuration, forming in June 2027, acts as a critical continuation of the transformative threshold initiated in July 2026. According to the article, this alignment deepens the broader civilizational recovery while shifting the planetary emphasis through the introduction of different symbolic archetypes. Mathematically, the 2027 configuration involves the dwarf planet Ceres positioning itself at 6–7 degrees Leo, directly opposing Pluto at 6 degrees Aquarius. 
 
This tension forms the "handle" of the second basket, while Uranus in Gemini and Neptune in Aries create smooth, flowing aspects to Pluto at the same degree, forming the supportive base. Because Ceres represents agricultural fertility, cycles of grief, and nurturing, astrologers interpret this configuration as a pivot toward rebuilding, regeneration, and healing a fractured world. The transition suggests that while the 2026 alignment focuses on large-scale structural, political, and systemic resets, the 2027 configuration emphasizes the integration of feminine, matriarchal archetypes to ground and sustain those changes over the long term.
 

Saturday, July 11, 2026

ICT New York Midnight Open (NYMO): How to Actually Use It | Darya Filipenka

Traders use the New York Midnight Open (NYMO) in different ways. This is my approach. It is grounded in ICT principles (see second video below), though my interpretation differs slightly (first video). The New York midnight open is not a standalone trading level; it is a contextual framework for understanding accumulation, manipulation, and distribution within the intraday cycle.
 
Black horizontal line represents the NY Midnight Open (NYMO).
Red shaded area: discount entry zone at FVG; Green shaded area: expected premium extension target zone.
Option 1: Breakout Continuation (FVG)
A strong body closure past NY midnight open sets up a trend play. Enter on the retest of the first 3m/5m Fair Value Gap (FVG or imbalance) formed after the break. Stop loss goes beyond midnight open or the nearest swing point; target 2R.

Option 2: Liquidity Sweep Continuation
Price wicks through NY midnight open but fails to close past it, indicating a sweep. Enter at the next candle open once an opposing order block (OB) forms to confirm continuation. Stop loss goes at the sweep swing point; target 2R.

Option 3: Weak Breakout Reversal
A weak closure or immediate rejection wick at midnight open signals a fakeout. Enter a reversal play at the next candle open once a counter-trend OB forms. Stop loss goes at the midnight open or recent swing level; target 2R.

Option 4: Higher-Timeframe Inversion
A strong breakout hits a higher-timeframe (HTF) key level, forcing a reversal. Enter at the next candle open when the initial breakout FVG fails and acts as an Inversion FVG (IFVG), aligned with an opposing OB. Stop loss goes at the HTF swing point.
A key misconception is treating it as a level to trade from. Price does not react to it because it is "magical"; it serves as a reference point. Its value is understood through the Power of Three: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. The New York midnight open often marks the transition between these phases.
 
ICT NYMO Explained.
 
Think of a sprinter: accumulation is the setup, manipulation the adjustment, and distribution the race. The move does not begin at the New York midnight open—it begins only after price leaves and holds away from it.
Stage 1: Accumulation
Defined by range-bound price with no clear direction or strong volume, often forming around the daily open. Intraday, price frequently consolidates near the New York midnight open. Position relative to the level is meaningless here; directional bias is not yet established and the dealing range is still forming.
Stage 2: Manipulation
The false move before the real move. Price may trade above or below the level to induce liquidity, but this does not define premium or discount. It is typically a setup. Price should interact with higher-timeframe levels and show a reaction, confirmed by order flow shifts or displacement. Once price completes this and returns through the level, manipulation is likely ending.
Stage 3: Distribution
The real move begins only after a decisive break and close beyond the NYMO level. Sweeps or consolidation indicate continued manipulation. A strong close, typically with displacement, confirms expansion. Repeated returns to the level signal that the range is still forming.
Dealing Range Perspective
The Dealing Range is the price range between a defined high and low that establishes premium and discount. The New York midnight open acts as the center of the developing range. Only after distribution begins do true expansion, clear premium/discount zones, and defined swings emerge. These cannot be traded meaningfully until price holds away from equilibrium.
 
Invalidation
If price fails to hold after a break, distribution is not active. Rejections (sweeps without close) and weak closes followed by reversals signal lack of confirmation. Strong, sustained closes are required. Continuous trading above and below the NYMO level without expansion indicates ongoing accumulation—best to stay out.
 
Invalidation Signal: If price fails to hold away from the NYMO, distribution is
inactive and the market remains undecided. Not every touch is significant. 
 
Retest Logic (Time-Based Behavior)
If the level is not retested between 3:00–7:00 a.m. New York time (range formation window), the probability increases of a retest between 8:30–11:00 a.m. If it is retested early, the range is often balanced and distribution may continue. If not, the level becomes a likely pullback or mitigation target, creating higher-probability setups.
 
How to Trade It
Wait for a strong close beyond the NYMO level, then look for a retracement into the first fair value gap; enter on reaction with risk beyond the level. Alternatively, treat sweeps as continuation setups with confirmation via order flow and structure, refining entries with candle sequences, order blocks, or fair value gaps.

If a break lacks conviction, wait for confirmation such as a break in opposing structure. In optimal conditions, combine a strong break, order flow confirmation, and higher-timeframe alignment. If a higher-timeframe objective is reached immediately after the break, favor reversal setups.
 
Some Extremely Useful Statistics
The following statistics can be used to align with what occurs between 3:00 and 7:00 a.m. to confirm a potential retracement.
SPX / ES: If price opens at 9:30 a.m. above the New York midnight open, there is a 58% chance it will retrace to that level. If price opens below the New York midnight open, the probability of a retracement increases to 69%. 
On Thursdays, there is a stronger tendency to retrace to the New York midnight open when price opens below the level. On these days, the probability increases to 88%.
NDX / NQ: If price opens above the New York midnight open, there is a 57% chance of a retracement. If price opens below the level, there is a 63% chance of a retracement back to the New York midnight open.
On Tuesdays there is a 67% chance of a retracement to the New York midnight open if price opens above the level, and a 73% chance of a retracement if price opens below it. 
Gold: If price opens above the New York midnight open, there is a 47% chance of a retracement to that level. This idea should again be aligned with higher-timeframe levels and the 3:00 to 7:00 a.m. range—specifically, what occurs during that window. If price opens below the New York midnight open, there is a 51% chance of a retracement.
 Reference:
 

Monday, July 6, 2026

Record-Low Skew: Crash Insurance for Pennies Signals Top | Thierry Borgeat

The S&P put/call skew just collapsed to 0.71. Not a low. The lowest reading on record. The 10-year average is 12. The 2020 panic peaked at 34. We're at 0.71. What this measures: how much investors pay to protect against a crash versus betting on a rally. At 0.71, crash protection is essentially free. Nobody wants it.

The chart displays "S&P 500 Average Single Stock 1m Normalized Skew," a custom metric averaging 1-month normalized put-call skew across S&P 500 stocks, with the latest value at 0.71 (record low). History shows crashes follow low-fear periods as hedging fades. 
Think about what that means. After two years of gains, at record concentration, with households at record equity exposure, the options market has priced hedging like insurance on a house that cannot burn. History's lesson is consistent: markets don't crash when everyone fears a crash. Fear is the hedge. This chart says the hedge is gone. Nobody buys insurance at the top. That's what makes it the top?
 
 
The skew signal is not always precisely timed,
but reliably foreshadows major trend changes.

S&P 500 Up into Mid-July 40-Day Cycle Peak | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: US Dollar Up (10D trough). Gold SmallUp (80D trough). Oil Pause (80D trough). Copper Up (-> 20D peak). USDJPY Up (80D trough). EURUSD SmallUp (80D trough). SPX E-minis Up (-> 40D peak). Nikkei futures Up (20D trough). Bitcoin Up (-> 20D peak). US Treasury Notes Up (-> 20D peak).

S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) - heading towards the next 40-day cycle peak. Up.

The 20-day cycle trough looks to have formed with the early June 80-day cycle upswing acting as a tailwind. We are looking for a move up into the next 40-day cycle peak.

Sunday, July 5, 2026

Civil War Comes to the West | David Betz

Recognition of the possibility of civil war in the West exists in politics and related punditry and in a range of scholarship. Many people still deny or are reluctant to talk of it. Perhaps they fear a kind of ‘security dilemma’ that might occur; if people become convinced that civil war is coming because important people say so they might behave in ways that cause or hasten it. Equally, one might surmise, some know the truth but are factionally invested in the conflict and are simply positioning over who will be judged by history to have fired the first shot in it.

Henry Nowak, 18, was fatally stabbed in Southampton in April 2026 by Vickrum Digwa
and controversially handcuffed by police as he lay dying, ignited nationwide riots.
 
Neither, in my view, are credible positions to hold when confronted with the unfortunate reality. Theory is generally clear and convincing about the conditions under which civil war is likely to occur. Walton concluded that in any year just under four per cent of the countries in which the conditions of civil war were present would experience it. Accepting this, even as something of a pessimistic baseline, would suggest over the coming decade the collective West is in deep trouble. Moreover, there is little reason to hope that should one kick off in one major country its consequences would not spread more widely to others.

Civil War in Britain: The Why, The How, The When.

Colin Brazier, July 2, 2026.
 
Moreover, it is not simply that the conditions are present in the West; it is, rather, that the conditions are nearing the ideal. The relative wealth, social stability and related lack of demographic factionalism, plus the perception of the ability of normal politics to solve problems that once made the West seem immune to civil war are now no longer valid. 
 
Organized and directed polarization: liberal 'Left', radical 'Islamism', and 
patriotic 'far-right', all infested with Zionist agents, fanning the flames.
 
In fact, in each of these categories the direction of pull is towards civil conflict. Increasingly, people perceive this to be the case and their levels of confidence in government would seem to be declining even more in the face of the apparent unwillingness or inability of leaders to confront the situation honestly. The result, society-wise, is a reinforcing spiral calling to mind the opening lines of Yeats’ famous ‘The Second Coming’.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold…

The fact of the matter is that the tools of revolt in the form of various appurtenances of modern life are just lying around, knowledge of how to employ them is widespread, targets are obvious and undefended, and more and more formerly regular citizens seem minded to take the shot.

Assume—based on recent statements by credible national political and academic figures—that at least ten European countries face the risk of violent civil conflict. The table above lists fifteen; discard any five you consider least plausible. Even then, the probability of such conflict occurring in at least one of the remaining countries within five years is 87%—rising to 95% if all fifteen are included.
Normalcy bias’ is a concept originating in disaster management that refers to the way in which people sometimes fail to react in a timely manner to warnings of imminent danger. The defense establishments of the West ought to guard against a tendency to disbelieve or to minimize the threat of internal conflict. The matter is that conditions which are generally agreed to be indicative of the potential for civil war are vividly present across a range of states which have for a long time been thought beyond such sort of conflict.

      » Configured for civil war. « 
In June 2026, an attempted decapitation of an Irish Belfast man by a Sudanese 'asylum seeker' sparked viral outrage
that rapidly escalated into anti-immigrant riots, arson, and widespread disorder across Northern Ireland. 

Strategic studies may be quite caught off guard, moreover, for two other reasons. First, civil wars are little studied in the same manner as interstate wars. The literature on civil wars is extensive, including important works on its causation, resolution, social origins, outcomes, post-war rebuilding and so on; but it is rarely studied, as is ‘normal war’, from the perspective of military strategy—in other words, how it is or should be fought. The work of Stathis Kalyvas, the most astute contemporary observer of the ‘logic’ of civil wars, is a rare exception.
 
All ingredients in play.
 
However, second, even Kalyvas just over a decade ago concluded that in the long view, civil wars were in decline. His further point, though, was that civil war had undergone three major transformations over the last 200 years to, in the last instance, a form which he struggled to describe—one far less ordered and conventional. That form is becoming evident. To suggest that civil war is imminent and ascendant and precisely in parts of the world thought, heretofore, to be the wealthiest and least restive—is contrary to expectation—but that is where we are.

Quoted from:
David Betz (2023) - Civil War Comes to the West. Part 1 and Part 2.
Military Strategy Magazine, Volume 9, Issue 1, summer 2023, pages 20-26. 
Military Strategy Magazine, Volume 10, Issue 2, spring 2025, pages 6-16.  
 
See also:
David J. Betz is Professor of War in the Modern World in the Department of War Studies, King's College London where he heads the MA War Studies program. He is also a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Friday, July 3, 2026

The Nihilistic Moral Collapse of the West | Alastair Crooke

We are experiencing a complete nihilistic moral collapse in the West in so many ways. We have lost sight of what it is to be human. We are undermining civilization—our civilization and all civilizations—by these sorts of completely amoral actions that take place. 
 

We have to try to find a way of recreating a civilizational structure that provides the moral foundations for how people behave and who they are. They always come, basically, from the old myths and narratives of a civilization. 
These are the moral stories that create the architecture by which ordinary people steer their lives and live. And when you lose that, you are on a path to utter destruction.
» I keep hearing that we can't kill the leaders of another country when we're negotiating with them. I'm sorry, that's not how the rules work. The rules say we can't invite them to a negotiation, seat them at a table, and then go all "Game of Thrones Red Wedding" on them. That's against the rules.


But once they have shown that they're not going to work and that they're actually an obstacle to peace, then we have every right to go ahead and turn some of those people into their component molecules and fly some missiles through their windows to make sure that the rest of the people negotiating on that side know not to mess around with President Trump. And I can guarantee that the CIA and Mossad have a list of people to whom that could happen that is long and distinguished. That could be a good next step. « 

Jim Hanson, President, Security Studies Group (US national security think tank), July 2, 2026.
Jim Hanson is an example of someone on the path to having no moral standing at all, to suggest that it's fine to kill leaders of other countries. It's really very distressing to hear that, and it should be condemned clearly.

 
» They are all there! One shot and we take them all out. « 
Orange ape calls Ayatollah Khamenei's funeral a military opportunity.