JPMorgan commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva released a report on March 26, 2026 (no complete official public version available) that outlines how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a progressive, region-by-region oil supply shock. As of March 30, 2026, this analysis remains the authoritative reference:
East Asia and Asia-Pacific deplete first, Africa, Europe, and the Americas follow.
Gradual Inventory Depletion Crisis (according to JPM)
The global oil supply system has shifted from an abrupt flow disruption to a gradual inventory depletion crisis, with timing emerging as the central driver of economic impact. The report’s core projections—an initial gross supply shock of approximately 16 million barrels (MMbbl) per day tapering to around 10 MMbbl per day by April—continue to align with current developments.
Estimated Dependency on Persian Gulf / West Asia Oil Imports (2025–2026).
Nature and Progression of the Supply Shock (according to JPM)
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has stayed more than 95% below normal levels since the last regular commercial tanker departed on February 28, 2026. The shockwave propagates from east to west, governed by maritime distances from the Persian Gulf. Asia, which normally receives over 80% of the crude oil transiting the Strait, faces the earliest and most severe effects. Pre-closure shipments have been exhausted, resulting in rapid inventory depletion across the region. India experienced the initial impact, followed by Northeast Asian importers including China, Japan, and South Korea.The Strait of Hormuz is not closed: On March 29, Dimitri Lascaris boarded an Iranian civilian vessel and toured the Strait of Hormuz for approximately one hour. There, he observed and recorded the presence of nearly 100 oil tankers and cargo ships. By all indications, commercial vessels continue to transit the Strait in significant numbers, but they now do so on terms dictated by Iran.
Southeast-Asia, Asia-Pacific, and Africa (according to JPM)
Southeast Asian oil demand is projected to contract by roughly 300,000 barrels per day in April. Losses could exceed 2 MMbbl per day in May and approach 3 MMbbl per day by June if strategic reserve releases remain limited to individual national efforts. Africa is expected to encounter visible impacts in early April, with potential oil demand losses reaching 250,000 barrels per day should inventories continue to decline.
Asia-Pacific Emergency Measures and Rationing (according to JPM)
Several
Asia-Pacific governments have implemented structured conservation and
demand-management policies. The Philippines (population 117 million) declared a national energy
emergency on March 24, 2026 through Executive Order No. 110 signed by
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Department of Energy has directed
power-sector participants to adopt immediate fuel-conservation
protocols, prudent load management, and generation-schedule adjustments.
A four-day work week has been introduced for many government offices,
accompanied by encouragement of remote work and reduced non-essential
travel. Fuel imports from alternative sources, including Russian crude
under temporary US sanctions waivers, have been authorized. Australia
(27M) holds approximately 36 days of petrol stocks, 34 days of diesel,
and 32 days of jet-fuel inventories (figures from early March, now
further drawn down). Nationwide rationing has not been enacted, though
the government has temporarily eased fuel-quality standards for 60 days
to redirect roughly 100 million liters of export-grade fuel into the
domestic market each month. Service stations in some areas have
introduced voluntary purchase caps, and national contingency planning
for standardized stock reporting and potential future rationing is
advancing.
Australia is one of the world’s largest energy exporters—the third-largest exporter of LNG and the leading seaborne supplier of thermal and metallurgical coal. Rumor has it their degenerate eugenicist government now aims for a COVID-style "energy lockdown"—never letting a fine crisis go to waste. Like them, the European Union is fanatically in line with the UN self-extinction Agenda 2030, always eager and ready to strangle its people beyond imagination.
South Korea (51M) has
imposed a five-month ban on naphtha exports, effective March 27, 2026,
to prioritize domestic petrochemical and refining needs. China has
restricted overseas shipments of refined fuels to preserve domestic
inventories. Approximately 5% of ethylene production capacity in Japan,
South Korea, and China has shut down due to feedstock shortages.
Impacts on Europe and North America (according to JPM)
Europe
(450M) is projected to face pressure by mid-April, primarily through
elevated costs and intensified competition for non-Gulf supplies rather
than outright physical shortages. Natural-gas prices on the continent
have risen to 55–58 euros per megawatt-hour, while airlines confront
severe pressure from surging jet-fuel expenses. Slovenia has become the
first European Union member to impose explicit fuel rationing, limiting
private motorists to 50 liters per day.
A dull face, yet impeccably groomed—vain, deeply self-important, and convinced he has control over everyone and
everything: European Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, the quintessential apparatchik, an unshakable pillar of the regime.
everything: European Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, the quintessential apparatchik, an unshakable pillar of the regime.
Dozens of oil tankers have been sitting off the coasts of Belgium and the Netherlands for weeks. Port workers and tanker crews report that the EU Commission is preventing them from entering ports to unload their cargo. An EU oil shortage is being crafted to justify and bring about an "energy lockdown." These are the very same ilk who implemented the COVID‑19 plandemic script, who seize farmers' lands for "climate protection," who feed the meat grinder in Ukraine, who keep their mouths shut and bow down after the US blows up Europe's main pipelines with Russia, who wail over Greenland, and who cheer the US takeover of Venezuela — the very same Zionist perverts who have financed and participated in U$raHell's genocides and wars ever since — including the ongoing one against Iran.
North America appears latest in the timeline, with most Gulf shipments expected to cease arriving around April 15, 2026. The US (342M) is unlikely to experience direct physical shortages owing to its robust domestic production. The impact will manifest mainly through rising fuel prices and refined-product market dislocations. West Texas Intermediate crude has increased more than 40% in March and continues to trade approximately 10 dollars below Brent.
Mitigation Efforts and Global Responses (according to JPM)
Gulf producers are expanding alternative export routes to mitigate the disruption. Saudi Arabia has increased flows through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu from 0.8 to 3.3 MMbbl per day, with potential to reach 4.7 MMbbl per day by April. The United Arab Emirates has raised throughput on its Fujairah bypass pipeline from 1.1 to 1.6 MMbbl per day. These workarounds replace only a fraction of the lost capacity.
A Russian tanker with 650,000 barrels of Urals crude arrived in Cuba (11M) today despite
the US genocidal blockade of the island, providing limited relief for roughly 9–10 days.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has coordinated the release of 400 MMbbl from
strategic reserves across its 32 member nations—the largest such
operation in the agency’s history—with the US contributing nearly half
from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol
has described the current disruption as the greatest threat to global
energy security on record.
Geopolitical and Market Outlook
In Asia the energy supply crisis has strained aviation, agriculture,
construction, and heavy transport sectors, prompting emergency measures. Geopolitically, the disruption has
enhanced the attractiveness of Russian overland export corridors and
reinforced the strategic position of US LNG supplies in both Asian and
European markets.
As of March 30, 2026, Iran maintains a selective policy on the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed to vessels linked to U$raHell and their active allies. Tehran has explicitly permitted safe passage for ships from countries it considers "friendly" or non-hostile — China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iraq, and Bangladesh. Malaysia and Thailand have benefited on a case-by-case basis, sometimes involving prior diplomatic contact or a transit fee.
► Japan has declined to commit naval or military forces to US–Israeli
operations, and is offered safe passage through the Strait.
► India has successfully negotiated transit for Indian-flagged LPG carriers and other vessels, occasionally escorted by the Indian Navy in the Gulf of Oman.
► Pakistan has secured passage for specific tankers, and Iran has agreed to allow up to 20 additional Pakistani-flagged ships, with two vessels crossing daily.
► China has engaged in talks for safe passage of crude and LNG vessels, though some Chinese-linked ships have turned back due to practical risks despite assurances.
► Bangladesh has been included in Iran’s list of friendly countries.
► Taiwan is a nation hostile to Iran, and has mitigated the crisis with oil reserves and secured LNG supplies through April. Short-term actions include accelerated procurement of alternative LNG from the US and Australia. Contingency plans involve emergency spot-market purchases and mutual assistance discussions with partners such as Japan and South Korea.
► Taiwan is a nation hostile to Iran, and has mitigated the crisis with oil reserves and secured LNG supplies through April. Short-term actions include accelerated procurement of alternative LNG from the US and Australia. Contingency plans involve emergency spot-market purchases and mutual assistance discussions with partners such as Japan and South Korea.
► South Korea and Vietnam have conducted diplomatic outreach to Iran for safe passage, receiving positive indications from Tehran, though broad arrangements remain limited or pending.
► The Philippines, not hostile to Iran, but one of the most vulnerable nations, has focused primarily on declaring a national energy emergency, implementing conservation measures, and sourcing Russian crude under temporary US sanctions waivers rather than pursuing high-profile direct diplomacy with Iran, although domestic calls for such talks have emerged. On March 26, 2026, Epstein's boyfriend announced a 10-day extension of the pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, extending the deadline to April 6. He cited an Iranian request for negotiations, noting that Iran had permitted "10 tankers to pass through the Strait as a goodwill gesture;" Iranian officials, however, denied that any talks were under way.
...White House bimbo Karoline Leavitt insists 'negotiations'
are ongoing and Iran is lying by stating otherwise...
war machine puppeteers once again emerge as the leading and most immediate profiteers.
It’s about time to sink some aircraft carriers...
Brent crude, which closed at $108.01 per barrel on March 27, now trades in the $111–115 range as of March 30, 2026. Macquarie Group has assigned a 40% probability to the conflict extending through June, a scenario that could drive Brent above $200 per barrel and US retail gasoline prices to approximately $7 per gallon. Wood Mackenzie has warned that a sustained Brent average of $125 per barrel throughout 2026 would be sufficient to trigger a global recession.
Iran’s "reverse indicator" trading advice continues to play out in real-time:
At 4:12 PM ET on Sunday, March 29, Iran's Speaker of the Parliament said US pre-market news is
a "reverse indicator"; if they "dump" the market, then "go long," and if they "pump it, short it."
See also:
