Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, Gold, BTC | David Hickson

In the prior update, we assessed whether the 80-day cycle trough formed early in mid-May or on schedule in early June. Most instruments pointed to a first-week-of-June trough. The key was a decisive test using Hurst’s Future Line of Demarcation (FLD), which now provides the evidence reviewed here.

S&P 500: Analysis continues to use a shortened nominal cycle model due to persistently compressed cycle lengths in US equities, particularly the SPX, while acknowledging the possibility that true Hurst wavelengths still govern. Under this framework, a potential 18-month trough was inferred on March 31 based on proximity to a 20-week trough, and an 80-day trough was projected for mid-May. 

 

[current average cycle periods in stacked, color-coded boxes at bottom right.] 

 

The validation mechanism was price behavior at the 20-day FLD: holding above it would confirm the trough, while breaking below would indicate it still lay ahead. In early June, price briefly held the FLD but broke below it on Friday, confirming the 80-day trough had not yet formed and signaling a reversion to standard Hurst cycle lengths.

Nasdaq: Expectation was likewise that the 80-day trough remained ahead unless price held above the FLD. Friday’s clean break below confirmed the trough was still pending and invalidated the early-trough scenario. 

 

 

The 18-month trough placement remains uncertain, though Sentient Trader identifies it at the end of March; if correct, the structure is bullish, as the market would be in the second 80-day cycle rather than the final one.

Australian ASX: Initial price action—an A-category move above the FLD combined with a nest of lows—suggested the trough had formed early. 

 

However, a subsequent break below the FLD disrupted that view, and although price later reclaimed the FLD in what is likely another A-category interaction, the structure remains less coherent than in US markets. With the 18-month trough still ahead, the market may still be in a bearish phase depending on its position within the cycle.

German DAX: Break below the FLD confirmed the 80-day trough had not yet formed. A nest of lows suggests it likely formed recently, and price has since moved back above the FLD in an A-category interaction. 

 

Even so, with the 18-month trough still ahead, downside risk remains if this is the final 80-day cycle within that larger structure.

Indian NIFTY-50: Price crossed above the 20-day FLD on Friday, confirming the 20-week trough formed earlier in the week and marking the start of a bullish phase.

 

 

Gold: Repeated failures at the FLD formed a GH interaction pair, confirming the 80-day trough had not yet formed at that time. It likely completed shortly after, around Thursday, June 11. 

 

 

While the near-term outlook is upward, an 18-month trough still lies ahead, implying potential future downside pressure.

Bitcoin: 20-week trough formed in the first week of June. FLD behavior showed a GH interaction followed by an A-category breakout, confirming the trough. Although the composite structure is somewhat atypical, the short-term bias remains bullish.

 

 

Reference:

David Hickson (June 15, 2026) The Power of Hurst's FLD - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video) 

 

See also:

Christopher Grafton (June 15, 2026) - S&P 500 Up (80D Trough) and Bitcoin Up (20W Trough).

S&P 500 Up (80D Trough) and Bitcoin Up (20W Trough) | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: US Dollar Down (->40D trough). Gold Up (80D trough). Oil Down (->80D trough). Copper Up (40D trough). USDJPY Down (-> 40D trough). EURUSD Up (80D trough). SPX E-minis Up (80D trough). Nikkei futures Up (80D trough). Bitcoin Up (20W trough). Ten Year Notes Up (20W trough).

 

S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) - 80 day cycle trough in. Up. 

[Current average lengths of nominal cycles in stacked, color-coded boxes at bottom right of charts.] 

Bitcoin – 20 week cycle trough in. Up. 

Reference:
Christopher Grafton (June 15, 2026) - The Macro Brief- 15 June 2026.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 2, 2026) - June Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. 

Nicholas D. Savino (May 31, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for June 2026.

"Hell Will Start in the Middle East" | Krzysztof Jackowski

Today is June 7th. The first feeling is that hell will start in the Middle East. There will be an attack on Israel. Forces will ally against Israel. Israel will provoke events in order to be attacked. It is highly probable that such an attack on Israel will occur so that America becomes more active.

 

Trump is clearly backing away from continuing the war with Iran. At this time, Israel will want to increase war activity. This may be done to provoke an attack on Israel between the 11th and the 16th of June. The situation may significantly escalate.

Reference:
Krzysztof Jackowski (June 9, 2026) - Hell in the Middle East. (video)

 

Krzysztof Jackowski (born 1963) is a self-described clairvoyant and psychic investigator from Człuchów, Poland. Of modest background and without documented formal higher education or training in investigative or scientific fields, he worked in manual trades before gaining national attention in the 1990s for assisting in missing-person cases, reportedly using extrasensory perception to locate bodies and provide investigative leads. Since then, he has frequently appeared in Polish media sharing predictions about political, economic, and global events, and has more recently built a large online following, especially on YouTube. Skeptics, however, dismiss Poland's most famous psychic as a charlatan, arguing that his "shotgun technique"—issuing hundreds of vague, wide-ranging predictions—guarantees that a small fraction will, by sheer probability, coincide with real-world events by chance.

June 9, 2026: Iran continues to humiliate the orange ape. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas
Araghchi explains to the simpleton that the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran and Oman.

 

June 7, 2026: Khaybar Shekan, another Iranian ballistic 
missile with cluster munitions, slams into I$raHell.

 

See also:

Pepe Escobar (June 9, 2026) - The real story behind nuclear Iran and the Islamabad Accord. 

Fmr. CIA Larry Johnson (June 9, 2026) - Iran Will Conduct A Nuke Test Soon! (video)
Richard Smith (May 21, 2026) - Three Major War Cycles Converging 2027–2032.

June Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

June is typically constructive for equities: over 31 years, NASDAQ leads (+1.7%), followed by Russell 2000 (+1.2%), Russell 1000 (+0.4%), and S&P 500 modestly positive, while DJIA is roughly flat. A common pattern is mid-month weakness followed by a recovery into month-end, suggesting dip-buying behavior.

June's Seasonal Crossroads: Strong Recent Trends vs. Historical Midterm Weakness.

In contrast, midterm-election years show consistent June declines across all major indexes. Small caps are hit hardest (Russell 2000 −2%), with NASDAQ, Russell 1000, S&P 500, and DJIA also posting notable losses. This aligns with broader midterm seasonality: heightened political uncertainty and policy risk tend to weaken markets in Q2–Q3, with strength often deferred to Q4.

Bottom line: June is usually bullish, especially for growth/tech, but midterm years introduce clear downside bias. Monitoring which pattern dominates can signal the market’s trajectory for the rest of the year.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 3, 2026) - June's Seasonal Crossroads: Strong Recent Trends vs. Historical Midterm Weakness. 

June Seasonal Stock Market Performance (2001-2021).

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. 

Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500. 

 

As we are living in a time like no other, by June 2026, the S&P 500 (red line) shows a negative correlation (–4.83%) with its historical midterm election year pattern since 1950 (green line). Instead, the index more closely aligns with post-election year (94.49%, purple line) and pre-election year (93.5%, orange line) patterns. The post-election analogue (purple) suggests a flat to slightly negative trajectory into early July 2026, followed by a rise in prices through year-end. The pre-election analogue (orange) points to a broader, range-bound pattern through late September 2026, before similarly trending higher into year-end. The black line represents the average yearly seasonal pattern of the S&P 500 from 2000 to 2025, which remains flat from June into early September, declines into early October, and is followed by a steeper rise into year-end.

NDR's pattern matching tool shows that the NASDAQ has closely tracked the dotcom analog and is closer to 1998 than 2000. It still suggests near-term volatility ahead.

S&P 500 Forecast for June 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino

Primary forecast pattern for June.

 

The forecast focuses on market direction and timing rather than magnitude of price change. 

 

Inverse pattern for June, which is currently not favored.  

 

How the May 2026 forecast played out. 

 

Reference:

Nicholas D. Savino (May 31, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for June 2026.

 

[check for updates]  

Hurst 80-Day Cycle Low in SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, Gold, BTC | David Hickson

The global market stands at a critical crossroads regarding the 80-day (or 20-week) cycle trough. Price action relative to the 20-day FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) serves as the ultimate macro decider across all major indices. Holding support or breaking cleanly above this line confirms the trough is behind us, validating a bullish continuation. Conversely, failing at or breaking below the FLD signals that a deeper cycle decline is still underway.

S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 maintains a strongly bullish bias, with the 80-day trough likely already in place after a brief 49-day run from the March 31 low. While officially phased as a 20-week trough, the immense underlying strength suggests a much larger 18-month cycle trough formed in late March, running significantly shorter than Hurst's nominal model at a recent average of 11.4 months.

 

S&P 500 (daily candles, April-June 2026): The 80-day trough is likely complete,

favoring an immediate bullish advance if price holds above the 20-day FLD this week.

However, at day 62 of a nominal 68-day cycle, the index implies about six days of remaining downside. 

 

This right-translated structure favors an immediate A-category upside continuation. The next minor 20-day cycle trough is due this week, where price must find support at the 20-day FLD to keep this bullish interpretation intact. A clean breakdown below the FLD invalidates the view and opens the door to lower lows.

NASDAQ: Unlike the S&P 500, the NASDAQ analysis relies on Hurst's original nominal model, which indicates the 80-day cycle trough still lies ahead. At day 62 of a nominal 68-day cycle, the index implies about six days of remaining downside, pointing toward an F-category interaction that should drag price below the 20-day FLD. 

 

NASDAQ (daily candles, April-June 2026): The 80-day trough remains ahead with roughly

six days of downside expected, unless price invalidates this by holding above the 20-day FLD.

 

However, because the recent average wavelength is an unusually stretched 89.5 days, this phasing remains under scrutiny. The 20-day FLD is the key tactical level to resolve this model divergence: if price holds above the FLD instead of breaking down, the NASDAQ will pivot to match the S&P 500's bullish "trough-is-in" reality.

Australian ASX: The Australian market provides a clean, textbook cross-check for global commonality. The 80-day cycle trough formed precisely as anticipated, arriving roughly one week earlier than projected near the May 18 window. 

 

ASX (daily candles, April-June 2026):The 80-day trough is locked in, establishing

a textbook bullish advance that eyes a minor 20-day trough support level this week.

 

Price has since executed a flawless bullish sequence, crossing above the 20-day FLD via an A-category interaction, finding exact support on the retest, and resuming its march higher. Cycle projections should now be shifted forward, timing the next 20-day trough for this week—where it should again find support at the FLD—followed by a 40-day trough roughly three weeks later.

German DAX: The DAX confirms a high-confidence shorter-term sequence but offers less macro clarity due to choppy data continuity. The prevailing model suggests a 40-day trough formed in late April and the most recent low was merely a 20-day trough, meaning the 80-day decline has not yet occurred. 

 

DAX (daily candles, April-June 2026): The 80-day trough timing is unresolved, leaving

the directional bias strictly dependent on whether price holds or breaks the 20-day FLD. 

 

However, because the 80-day cycle whisker still encompasses this recent low, a definitive conclusion is impossible based on phasing alone. Just as with the US markets, the fixed-wavelength 20-day FLD will provide the final verdict through upcoming price interaction.

Nifty 50 (India): The Nifty 50 is actively diverging from global commonality, displaying an isolated bearish structure. Following an early-April 80-day trough and a mid-May 40-day trough, the index has already broken cleanly below its 20-day FLD in an F-category interaction. 

 

Nifty 50 (daily candles, April-June 2026): The index has broken below the 20-day FLD, diverging

from global markets as it heads into a major 20-week cycle trough due in two weeks. 

 

Rather than acting as a leading indicator that drags Western markets down, this breakdown reflects weaker-than-usual global synchronization for the Nifty. Price remains on track toward a major, projected 20-week cycle trough expected in roughly two weeks.

Gold (XAUUSD): Gold maintains a neutral-to-slightly bearish broader outlook, capped by a potentially massive, long-term cycle peak. In the near term, a classic GH-category interaction pair against the 20-day FLD strongly indicates that an 80-day cycle trough formed late last week, executing roughly seven days later than the recent average wavelength. 

 

Gold (daily candles, May-June 2026): Neutral-to-sluggish overall after forming an 80-day trough

last week, requiring a break above Friday's high to safely confirm a new upward advance.

 

Price has since teased an A-category breakout but recently slipped back below the FLD line, threatening a double GH interaction. A conservative entry requires waiting for price to clear Friday's high to confirm the new cycle advance and eliminate near-term downside risk.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Bitcoin's underlying cycles are rapidly contracting, pulling its macro timeframe forward. Approximately 115 days have passed since the foundational 18-month cycle trough in February. While Hurst's nominal model projects a 136-day wavelength for the 20-week trough, compressed shorter cycles suggest this major nest of lows will arrive ahead of schedule, likely late this week. 

 

Bitcoin (daily candles, April-June 2026): Shorter cycles are compressing toward a major 20-week

nest of lows expected this week, where an FLD breakout will signal a powerful new advance.

 

A recent failure to sustain a breakout above the 20-day FLD confirmed a textbook GH-category resistance pair, proving the trough was not yet in. The next interaction with the 20-day FLD is critical: an aggressive A-category breakout will confirm the 20-week trough is structurally complete and launch a major upward advance.

Reference:
David Hickson (June 1, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Market Update: Was That The 80-Day Cycle trough? (video)

David Hickson (May 18, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, Gold, Bitcoin.  

Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500.  

 

41-Month Kitchin Cycle in Hurst Method Nominal Market

Cycle Chart by Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, 1985. 

 

The S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000 bottomed in a 41-month Kitchin

cycle trough in late March 2026, approximately 3.5 years after their previous major low in October 2022.

 

See also:

Edward R. Dewey (1971) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle in Stocks. 

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting.

Cosmic Cluster Days | June 2026

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) do not exhibit a consistent polarity or directional bias in financial markets. The 'noise channel' functions as a signal filter, with its upper and lower bounds defined empirically. However, swing highs and lows that form within the noise channel may still correlate with short-term market trends and reversals.

 

Cosmic Cluster Days  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel

   

Jun 04-05 (Thu-Fri) | Jun12 (Fri) | Jun 15 (Mon) | Jun 20-21 (Sat-Sun) | Jul 1-2 (Wed-Thu)

 

 For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the concept, click [HERE].

 

 Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE/US Stock Indices

 

May 26 (Tue) 05:28 = SUN @ 5 GEM = 65 degrees = negative = should reach a high and turn down
Jun 06 (Sat) 16:54 = SUN @ 16 GEM = 76 degrees = neutral = expect small range or inside day
Jun 07 (Sun) 17:59 = SUN @ 17 GEM = 77 degrees = negative = should reach a high and turn down.
Jun 08 (Mon) 19:04 = SUN @ 18 GEM = 78 degrees = neutral
Jun 29 (Mon) 17:44 = SUN @ 8 CAN = 98 degrees = positive
Jul 04 (Sat) 23:37 = SUN @ 13 CAN = 103 degrees = negative

[HERE]

 

Mercury retrograde from June 29 (Sun) to July 23 (Thu) across Cancer and Leo,

prompting amid potential emotional market swing.
[HERE]

NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting | Larry Williams

Let's start with the three core market tools—often misunderstood and rarely used together effectively: 

 

■ Fundamentals determine value: Markets ultimately move for fundamental reasons, and value is rewarded over

    time—not necessarily today, this month, or even this year. A value-driven framework is indispensable. 

■ Technicals define the present: They reveal current market conditions—trend, momentum, overbought or

    oversold states.  

■ Cycles provide the edge: They project direction and timing, identifying when opportunities are most likely to

    emerge.

The process is straightforward: What has value? Where are we now? Where are we going? You need all three—none is sufficient on its own. We begin with cycles, specifically the NASDAQ, which has exhibited structural strength since 2009.

Bullish NASDAQ Cycle Analysis

Market cycles consist of recurring lows, rallies, and declines, but not all waves carry equal weight. Some phases are structurally stronger—and we are currently in one.

 

NASDAQ: In a dominant bullish cycle wave with typical June strength → August pause → higher continuation;

bias remains up, buy pullbacks.

 

A comparable wave (3.5-Year, 41-Month, or Kitchin Cycle) in 2016 produced a sustained rally. The current configuration is similar. Since 2023, the NASDAQ has been in a pronounced bullish cycle. While my primary focus is typically the NASDAQ, recent instability in the Dow has increased its relative importance this year. Current cycle positioning suggests the early stages of another strong upward phase—historically associated with meaningful advances.

NASDAQ Could Rally Again: Historically, this cycle turns higher in June roughly 90% of the time.

 

Why the NASDAQ Could Rally Again: Historically, this cycle turns higher in June roughly 90% of the time, experiences a modest pullback in August, and then continues upward. That pattern implies a constructive setup.

Markets do not require declines to rally. They often consolidate sideways before advancing—a behavior repeatedly observed. While many investors wait for pullbacks, the absence of weakness does not negate bullish conditions. My 2026 forecast anticipated higher prices and emphasized buying pullbacks—not waiting for a breakdown that may never materialize.

Dow Jones "Explosive Wave" Pattern 

The Dow is forming a recurring "explosive wave" structure: consolidation followed by a sharp advance. This sequence—sideways movement transitioning into a rapid rally—has repeated multiple times. 

 

DJIA: Sideways consolidation within "explosive wave" structure likely resolving into sharp upside move late June–August.

 

The current phase is a consolidation with a bullish bias. Historically, such setups resolve into strong moves, often beginning between late June and August. This pattern is relevant for longer-term positioning.

The expected mid-June low should be understood as a cycle low in the NASDAQ and DJIA—a tactical buying opportunity, not necessarily the absolute price bottom. The broader outlook remains intact: 2026 is a bull market year.

Inflation, as anticipated, has moved higher and remains closely linked to bond market dynamics. The longer-term trajectory still points toward declining interest rates into the early 2030s. This brings us to bonds.

Bond Market Setup & Seasonality

Bond seasonality is currently in a bullish phase, historically associated with rallies. Cycle analysis aligns with this timing, reinforcing the setup. The Money Flow Index indicates institutional accumulation—an early and important signal.

 

Bonds: Seasonal + cycle low with rising institutional accumulation signals an emerging rally; 

near-term dip is a tactical buy entry.

Institutional Positioning in Bonds: Professional money is rotating into bonds. Commitment of Traders data shows commercial participants holding their largest long position since 2023. Historically, markets tend to advance when large, informed participants accumulate. 

 

COT data shows commercial participants holding their largest long position since 2023. 

 

Combined with a seasonal low, a cycle low, and improving money flow, the evidence points to a high-probability buying zone.

 

Wait for short-term pullback, then enter in alignment with the broader cycle and seasonal trend.

 

Bond Market Strategy: On the daily timeframe, bonds are near a seasonal low with capital beginning to flow in. The tactical approach: wait for a short-term pullback, then enter in alignment with the broader cycle and seasonal trend. While the market has already begun to move higher, a near-term retracement would provide a more favorable entry.

Stay the course. There is no bear market. Despite persistent skepticism, the primary trend remains upward. The strategy is unchanged: buy pullbacks, not fear them. We are in a bull market.

Reference:

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - The Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. (video)

 

See also: 

Larry Williams (February 19, 2026) - 2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa. 

Larry Wiliams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.

David Hickson (May 18, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, Gold, Bitcoin.  

TPR (May 19, 2026) - Pre- and Post-Memorial Day Seasonal Patterns in US Stock Indexes. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

 NDR (January 21, 2026) - 2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential & Decennial Cycles.

Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500.  

W.D. Gann (2025) - The 10-Year Cycle. 

 

 A New Fed Chair is not All Doom & Gloom.

Kevin Warsh is now Fed Chair, reviving fears that markets "test" new leadership—citing Bernanke (2007–09 crisis), Greenspan (1987 crash), and Volcker (late-1970s inflation). Yet history does not show leadership changes reliably trigger downturns. Context: since 1930, the S&P 500’s average annual drawdown is 16.1% (bearish extreme), its average best rally is 25.9% (bullish extreme), and mean annual return is 8.0%.

Post–Fed leadership changes, S&P 500 performance is generally not bearish: except at the 3-month horizon, advance rates exceed a 60% bullish threshold and average returns are positive. If Eugene Meyer (Great Depression) and Greenspan (1987) are excluded as likely timing outliers, results improve further: all intervals show higher average returns and win rates; at 1 year, the S&P 500 averages +12.7% and is higher 90% of the time.