Tuesday, July 21, 2026

DJIA Triggers Down Friday/Down Monday Signal at 51,839 | Jeff Hirsch

The DJIA recorded its sixth Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) of 2026 this week—a signal worth monitoring based on Stock Trader’s Almanac research (2026 ed., p. 78). A DF/DM occurs when the DJIA declines on Friday (or the final trading day of the week) and the following Monday (or first trading day of the next week). While not a guaranteed sell signal, history shows DF/DMs often mark inflection points and have frequently preceded weakness within 90 calendar days. Short-term rebounds are common, but many have been temporary.

 DJIA performance hinges on whether the 51,839.26 DF/DM level holds.

The latest DF/DM followed DJIA’s sharp July 17 (Fri) decline, which ended a multiweek advance amid technology and semiconductor weakness, geopolitical concerns, and rising oil prices. Monday’s attempted dip-buying rebound failed, leaving open whether current strength is durable or simply another post-DF/DM bounce.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures (daily bars):
DF/DM history suggests the next 90 days depend on 51,839.
 
Since 2000, the DJIA has experienced 271 DF/DMs. In only 32 cases (11.8%) did the DJIA avoid closing below the Monday DF/DM close over the next 90 days. When that level held, returns were historically stronger; when breached, performance was notably weaker, with limited gains over the following 60 trading days. The key level is Monday's close of 51,839.26. Holding above it would suggest this DF/DM may be a temporary setback; a close below it would increase the historical risk of further weakness.
 
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Al-Aqsa Triangle: Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb, and Suez Chokepoints

Following the partial disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is emerging as a second potential global energy chokepoint. The Ansar Allah movement (Houthis) in Yemen has announced an initial naval blockade targeting Saudi vessels, citing the long-standing Saudi air and sea blockade of Yemen

Al-Aqsa Triangle: Yemen–Iran strategy to disrupt global trade
by closing the Middle East's three key maritime chokepoints.
Bab al-Mandeb links the Suez–Red Sea corridor to the Indian Ocean and, alongside Hormuz, forms a dual chokepoint system vulnerable to escalation via Iran-aligned actors. A simultaneous disruption would block roughly a quarter of global energy flows and a large share of Asia–Europe trade, with Hormuz carrying 27% of seaborne oil and 20% of LNG, and the Bab al-Mandeb/Suez corridor each handling 11% of global trade and 8% of LNG. 
The Bab al-Mandeb is not yet fully closed. Commercial traffic continues, but the corridor is operating under elevated threat conditions. Attacks on selected vessels have increased, producing selective disruption rather than a comprehensive blockade. In response, some shipping lines are rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, while others continue transit under heightened security measures, including naval presence and route adjustments. In response to constraints at Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has shifted a significant share of exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, where approximately 4 million barrels of crude are loaded daily. Roughly 3 million barrels per day are destined for Asian markets and transit the Bab al-Mandeb.
American worthless signature: The repeated breaches of the agreement by the Great Satan regarding the MOU signed by the Presidents of Iran and the US have once again laid bare a fundamental truth: the signature of the US President is utterly worthless and devoid of credibility. It further reaffirms that coercion and brutality are inseparable components of the US creed and doctrine. Imam Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei, July 17, 2026.
Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope adds 6,000 km (3,700 miles) and 10–14 days transit time, in some cases longer. This materially increases fuel, charter, and operating costs. War-risk insurance premiums for Red Sea transit have also surged, adding several hundred thousand USD per voyage. Escalation risk centers on a full blockade scenario. If Ansar Allah forces interdict all international shipping, not just Saudi vessels, the impact would be significantly greater.
 
Strategic Trade Significance: Hormuz vs. Bab al-Mandeb
Hormuz concentrates unmatched upstream energy dependency, funneling roughly 20% of global oil (17–20 million bpd), over 20% of LNG, and a decisive share of global helium vital for high-tech and medical supply chains. Because Saudi and UAE pipeline bypasses cover only a fraction of normal volumes, any disruption creates an immediate physical supply deficit—driving rapid oil and gas repricing with direct spillovers into petrochemicals, fertilizers, and industrial inputs.

Bab al-Mandeb anchors throughput rather than production, serving as the southern gateway to Suez. It carries 12–15% of global trade, including major Asia–Europe container traffic, dry bulk, and mid-single-digit million bpd of oil. Unlike Hormuz, these flows can be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, though doing so adds roughly 6,000 km, 10–14 days, and sharp increases in fuel costs, vessel utilization constraints, freight rates, and war-risk premiums.

Consequently, their economic transmission mechanisms diverge. Hormuz is a quantity shock that removes physical supply and forces immediate energy repricing. Bab al-Mandeb is a friction shock that preserves supply but degrades delivery efficiency, triggering broader, slower-moving inflation across manufactured goods, energy derivatives, and food. Fertilizer markets sit at the intersection, relying on Hormuz for Gulf ammonia and urea to exit, and on Bab al-Mandeb for efficient delivery to European and African markets.

Simultaneous impairment escalates systemic risk nonlinearly. Upstream supply contraction combines with downstream logistical breakdown, eliminating volume availability and transit efficiency at once. This dual constraint compresses global inventories, amplifies price volatility, and propagates cost increases across industrial inputs and consumer goods with minimal buffering capacity.
The Bab al-Mandeb handles thousands of commercial transits annually and links the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and Suez Canal—one of the world's critical trade corridors. Full closure would force large-scale rerouting around Africa, extending delivery times, increasing freight rates and insurance costs, and placing renewed stress on global supply chains.  
 
July 21, 2026: Iran Destroys F-15 Hanger Base, 100 US Troops Lost as Trump Panics.

Cost transmission effects would likely be broad-based. Higher transport costs would feed into fuel prices (gasoline, diesel, heating oil), airfares, food, consumer goods, and imported products. Firms would absorb higher logistics and energy costs, with partial pass-through to end consumers.

July 21, 2026: Bab al-Mandeb Strait Becomes New Shipping Flashpoint as Houthis Signal Blockade.
 
The EU is engaged via Operation Aspides with a mandate limited to protecting civilian shipping. The US and the UK are conducting separate military strikes against targets in Yemen. Historical precedent indicates limited containment success: prior multinational naval deployments with dozens of warships failed to durably constrain Ansar Allah capabilities. Current Ansar Allah systems include even more advanced drones and missiles than in 2025.

 
A concurrent escalation in Bab al-Mandeb alongside sustained tension in the Strait of Hormuz would affect the region's two principal energy and trade corridors simultaneously, posing a high-risk scenario for global economic disruption and upward pressure on energy, transport, and consumer prices.

Friday, July 17, 2026

Love Is the Only Religion | The Life of Rumi

He is one of the most widely read and popular poets of all time globally. He wrote primarily in Persian, and also in Arabic, Turkish, and some Greek. And he's been dead for almost 800 years. His name is Jalal ad-Din Muhammad Rumi. And to become the voice millions turned to for love, he first had to lose the person he loved most. This is that story.

Whirling Dervish in Konya, performing the Mevlevi Sema, the sacred Sufi dance where continuous spinning symbolizes the spiritual journey toward divine love.


In 1207, in Balkh—a jewel of the Persian world—a boy is born into a family of immense prestige. His father, Baha al-Din Walad, is a towering theologian and mystic, known as Sultan al-Ulama—the Sultan of the Scholars. The whole city expects greatness from this child. Rumi grows up a prince in a kingdom of knowledge, surrounded by philosophy, theology, and law. His mind is a sword—sharp, brilliant, and disciplined.

Blue Mosque of Balkh. In 1220–1221, Genghis Khan’s forces annihilated the city  in modern-day northern Afghanistan. Despite its peaceful surrender, the Mongols massacred the population and leveled the city's infrastructure. This catastrophic sacking left one of the Silk Road's greatest centers of learning in ruins for over a century.

Then, 
Mongol armies sweep across the land like an apocalypse, reducing entire cities to ash. In 1214, Rumi’s family flees their Transoxianan homeland, refugees with a library on their backs. Early on, he learns his first great lesson: Everything you build can burn. Everything you love can be lost.

» Don't grieve. Anything you lose comes round in another form. «

On the road of exile, in the city of Nishapur, an old poet named Attar, one of the greatest spiritual masters of the age, sees the father walking ahead of his quiet, thoughtful son. Attar gifts the young Rumi a copy of his own mystical epic, the Asrar-Nama (The Book of Secrets), and utters a prophecy: 
 
» Here comes a sea, followed by an ocean. Your son will one day set the hearts of the world on fire. «

Years of wandering follow until in 1228 the family finally settles in Konya, a prosperous sanctuary in Anatolia. Rumi is now 21 years old and his life begins to take root. He marries his childhood love, Gawhar Khatun, and they have two sons. When his father passes away in 1231, Rumi inherits his position as head of the madrasa (theological school). For the next nine years, under the guidance of his father's finest disciple, Sayyid Burhan al-Din, he hones his craft. 
 
» He whose intellect overcomes his desire is higher than the angels. «
 
He masters law, ritual, and complex theology—the outer dimensions of faith. By the time he is 37, Jalal al-Din reaches the pinnacle of worldly and religious success. He is the most celebrated scholar in a city of scholars. His life is a portrait of pious perfection—orderly, respected, and intellectually fulfilled. He builds a fortress of knowledge around himself, a perfect world with no room for doubt. Yet behind his eyes lies an emptiness he cannot name. Admired by many, he feels understood by none.
 
Jalal al-Din Rumi (1207–1273), Persian Sufi mystic, theologian, and poet who spent most of his life in Konya, where his encounter with Shams of Tabriz transformed him from a respected religious scholar into an ecstatic singer of divine love. He is best known for his lyrical Divan-e Shams-e Tabrizi and the didactic Masnavi, and remains one of the world's most widely read spiritual poets, inspiring the Mevlevi "whirling dervish" tradition and cross-cultural seekers centuries after his death. 
» Your son will one day set the hearts of the world on fire. «
  
Suddenly, a wild, 60-year-old wandering dervish walks into his life: Shams of Tabriz. He asks Rumi a single, piercing question: "The great mystic Bayazid once cried out, 'Glory be to me, how magnificent I am!' Yet the prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, closer to God than any man, confessed, 'We have never known you as you truly deserve to be known.' So tell me, how can this be? Why did the lesser man boast while the greater man bowed?"
  
Baltoro Glacier "river of ice", Karakoram, Pakistan. Tracing ancient Silk Road paths, the 1,300-kilometer Karakoram Highway overcomes extreme altitudes at Khunjerab Pass (4,693m) to connect Pakistan and China, serving today as the economic backbone of regional overland trade.

» As you start to walk on the way, the way appears. «
 
In that instant, Rumi understands: true greatness is not the ego shouting; it is the soul surrendering. The question strikes him so deeply that, legend says, he faints. When he awakens, the rigid professor is gone. He is a seeker. Two oceans meet.

"You are not a drop in the ocean. You are the entire ocean in a drop." Many popular English quotes attributed to Rumi are actually creative reinterpretations by Coleman Barks, who blended separate fragments rather than offering literal translations. These reimagined phrases often obscure the original Persian context, such as the focus on divine love and spiritual, rather than emotional, ecstasy.

» You are not a drop in the ocean. You are the entire ocean in a drop. «

For months, they are inseparable, entering into total seclusion for forty days. In Shams, Rumi finds a mirror of the divine. Shams does not teach Rumi new knowledge; instead, he takes a hammer to the foundations of his identity. The intellect, for all its brilliance, is a cage. 
 
Mount Damavand — dormant stratovolcano, Iran’s highest peak and Asia’s tallest volcano (5,609 m)

» Run from what's comfortable. Forget safety. Live where you fear to live. Destroy your reputation. Be notorious. «
  
The only path to God, Shams insists, is through a heart broken open. Rumi later reflects that what he previously thought of as God, he met that day embodied in a human being. Shams introduces Rumi to the Sama—the whirling dance where the spinning soul sheds the ego and mirrors the turning of the cosmos. The  theologian who once considered music a distraction is now lost in it.
 
» We have come to spin, to revolve around the Sun of Truth and fly into the sky of the heart. «
 
The brilliant scholar has finally become a lover of God, of life, of everything. But to Rumi’s followers, this is a scandal. Whispers of slander turn to poison, and jealousy fills the air of Konya. Unable to bear the hostility, Shams flees to Damascus in 1246, plunging Rumi into a grief like death. Though Rumi sends his son, Sultan Walad, to beg his soul-friend to return, the reunion is tragically brief. One night, Shams is called to the door, steps outside, and vanishes from the face of the earth forever—brutally murdered, some say, by a cabal of jealous disciples.

Shams of Tabriz (c. 1185–1248), Persian Sufi mystic and wandering dervish, renowned as the spiritual mentor and beloved companion of Jalal al-Din Rumi, whose encounter with him transformed Rumi from a scholar into an ecstatic poet of divine love. Born in Tabriz and later disappearing under mysterious circumstances, Shams is immortalized in Rumi's collection Divan-e Shams-e Tabrizi and revered as the hidden "sun" behind much of Rumi's poetry.
» Why did the lesser man boast while the greater man bowed? «
 
Shattered by loss, Rumi does something no one expects. He begins to spin. Arms open to the sky, weeping and turning for hours, letting go of the ego to mirror the cosmos. His grief becomes a prayer in motion: the Sama, marking the birth of the Whirling Dervishes.

»  Dance when you're broken open. Dance if you've torn the bandage off. «

Then, the words come—not calculated, but pouring. Thousands upon thousands of verses erupt from his broken heart into an ocean of poetry, which he collects as the Divan-i Shams-i Tabrizi (The Collected Poems of Shams of Tabriz). He isn't composing poetry; he is bleeding it.
 
Calligram of a Mevlevi whirling dervish formed from densely layered Arabic calligraphy in which the primary legible nucleus is عِشْق (ʿishq, “divine love”), repeated, expanded, and interwoven with related fragments such as هو (Hu, “He,” the Divine Essence) and likely partial forms of الله (Allāh), alongside suggestive constructions like عشق هوى (“love as passion/desire”) and vocative particles like يا; the text is not meant to be read linearly but operates as a continuous dhikr field where words are rotated, fragmented, and redistributed to generate semantic intensity rather than syntactic clarity, while the dervish silhouette itself symbolizes fanāʾ (annihilation of the self in divine love) and the red accents—hat and ground—evoke transformed ego, sacrifice, and ecstatic intensity; thus the work functions not as a sentence but as a visual-theological construct whose conceptual translation compresses to “Divine Love—He; all is subsumed and dissolved in Love,” classifiable as modern ḥurūfī Sufi calligram with a non-linear, radial text structure designed as visual remembrance centered entirely on ʿishq as the totalizing metaphysical principle.

»  
Let yourself be silently drawn by the strange pull of what you really love. «

In his later years, Rumi begins his masterpiece, the Masnavi (The Spiritual Couplets), a vast six-volume epic of 25,000 verses that he composes aloud and continues until his death. Rather than writing it himself, he dictates the verses spontaneously—often while walking, bathing, or dancing—while his disciple, Husam al-Din Chalabi, records every word. He introduces the Masnavi as usul usul usul al-din—"the roots of the roots of the roots of the Religion." 
 
» I searched for God and found only myself. I searched for myself and found only God. « 
  
He defines it as kashshaf al-Qur'an, an expounder of the Quran, intentionally written in the Persian tongue to unveil the text's hidden mystical meanings for ordinary people who could not read the original ArabicA work people would one day call the Quran in the Persian tongue. His message was radical then, and it remains radical now: Love is the only true religion (مذهبِ عشق - madhhab-i 'ishq). Christian, Muslim, Jew—he welcomed them all.
 
»  Come, come, whoever you are. Wanderer, worshipper, lover of leaving. It doesn't matter. Come. «

Complex geometry of the dome ceiling at the tomb of iconic poet Hafez of Shiraz (1315–1390), Iran. The structure exemplifies classical Persian girih tilework, an advanced mathematical system composed of interlacing star and polygon motifs. Through this precise configuration, the architectural design masterfully articulates spatial depth and structural symmetry, reflecting the sophisticated artistic standards of Islamic monumental architecture.
 
When he dies in 1273, his city weeps, but he had asked them to celebrate. He called his death his Urs—his wedding night, the moment his soul finally reunites with the Divine. At his funeral, people of every faith walk together in mourning.
 
»  When I die, don't look for me in the ground. Look for me in the hearts of those who loved me. «

Circular calligraphy on the interior dome of the 16th-century Selimiye Mosque in Edirne, Turkey, designed under chief Ottoman architect Mimar Sinan. The central medallion features the verses of Surah Al-Ikhlas (The Purity, chapter 112 of the Quran)—proclaiming "Say, 'He is Allah, [who is] One. Allah, the Eternal Refuge. He neither begets nor is born, nor is there to Him any equivalent'"—intertwined in the elegant Jali Thuluth script and arranged in a precise radial pattern that spreads symmetrically across the ceiling.

» You were born with wings, why prefer to crawl through life? «
 
Eight centuries later, his words are everywhere—read at weddings, quoted by presidents, and whispered by broken hearts across every continent. The refugee boy who lost everything became the voice of love for the entire world. Because Rumi lived the truth he taught: that even a shattered heart can become a doorway to the light.
 
نگفتمت مرو آنجا که آشنات منم در این سراب فنا چشمهٔ حیات منم  وگر به خشم روی صدهزار سال ز من به‌ عاقبت به من آیی که منتهات منم  نگفتمت که به نقش‌ جهان مشو راضی که نقش‌بند سراپردهٔ رضات منم  نگفتمت که منم بحر و تو یکی ماهی مرو به خشک که دریای با صَفات منم  نگفتمت که چو مرغان به‌ سوی دام مرو بیا که قدرت پرواز و پرّ و پات منم  نگفتمت که تو را ره‌ زنند و سرد کنند که آتش و تبش و گرمی هوات منم  نگفتمت که صفت‌های زشت در تو نهند که گم کنی که سرِ چشمه صفات منم  نگفتمت که مگو کار بنده از چه جهت نظام گیرد؟ خلّاق بی‌جهات منم  اگر چراغ دلی، دان که راه خانه کجاست وگر خداصفتی، دان که کدخدات منم

Ocean and Fish
  
» Didn't I tell you? Do not go there, for I am your friend
In this mirage of fading shadows, I am life without end

Even if you run in anger for a hundred thousand years
You will return to Me at last, I am where the path clears

Didn't I tell you? I am the Ocean, and you are the fish
Don't go to the dry land, I am the only Water you could wish

Didn't I tell you? Don't be fooled by the world's design
I am the Painter of your joy, the Artist of the divine

Didn't I tell you? Do not fly like a bird to the snare
Come back to Me, I am your Wings, I am the power of the air

Didn't I tell you? They will rob you and leave you cold
But I am the Fire, the warmth of your soul
 
As I foretold, they put ugly masks upon your face to make you forget
that I am the Source of beauty, the purest love you met

Don't ask how the stars align or how the world is spun
I am the Creator without limits, I am the Only one

If you are the lamp of the heart, you know where to roam
And if you seek the Divine, know that I am your Home
 «

Rumi, Konya, 645 AH/1247 AD.

وَأَنَّ اللَّهَ قَدْ أَحَاطَ بِكُلِّ شَيْءٍ عِلْمًا ...and that Allah has encompassed all things in knowledge, Surah At-Talaq (The Divorce, verse 12, chapter 65 of the Quran).

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Solar Cycles and Inflation-Adjusted Gold Price Forecasting | Vladimir Belkin

Vladimir Belkin's latest study quantifies the relationship between solar activity and the inflation-adjusted price of Gold (1968–2025) within a Jevons–Chizhevsky analytical framework. By synchronizing real Gold prices with the ordinal structure of solar cycles—measured via sunspot (Wolf) numbers—it identifies a strong and statistically significant fit (R² = 0.9081, p = 0.0115), implying that approximately 90.8% of the variance in real Gold prices is explained by his solar-cycle model. 
 
Grouping of data by ordinal numbers of years in solar activity cycles (1968–2025).
Grouping of data by ordinal numbers of years in solar activity cycles (1968–2025).
 
Rather than implying direct causation, the results point to a cyclical transmission mechanism in which solar rhythms embed and modulate underlying economic periodicities, notably Kitchin- and Juglar-type cycles, thereby acting as a structural driver of long-term commodity price behavior.
 
Ordinal years of the mean solar cycle and inflation-adjusted Gold prices (1968–2025); superposed epoch analysis of 58 years of observations.
Ordinal years of the mean solar cycle and inflation-adjusted Gold prices
(1968–2025); superposed epoch analysis of 58 years of observations.

The model integrates CPI-adjusted Gold price data with a superposed epoch framework, aligning multiple solar cycles into a normalized temporal structure and fitting a 6th-degree polynomial to capture the nonlinear progression of price behavior across cycle phases (chart above). This produces a phase-sensitive waveform that preserves both timing and amplitude characteristics of historical Gold price movements relative to the solar cycle. The robustness of the fit suggests a stable coupling between solar variability and macro-financial conditions—likely mediated through liquidity, inflation expectations, and broader cyclical economic regimes.

The study advances beyond descriptive correlation to a deterministic forecasting model. Each calendar year is mapped to its corresponding position within Solar Cycle 25, and forward price projections are derived using empirically observed year-to-year transition ratios embedded in the cycle structure.
Within this framework, 2026 (cycle year 7) implies a contraction in real Gold prices to approximately $2,536.35/oz (0.70 × $3,623.36), followed by 2027 (year 8) with a modest recovery to $2,587.08/oz (1.02 × prior year). 
This projected path is consistent with the transition from peak solar activity into the declining phase of the cycle, which historically coincides with reduced upside momentum, elevated volatility, or corrective dynamics in real Gold prices.

For the post-2025 horizon, the model therefore implies a nonlinear, wave-structured trajectory rather than a sustained directional trend: late-cycle topping behavior into the solar maximum, followed by cyclical deceleration into the late 2020s, and eventual reacceleration as the next solar minimum-to-maximum sequence unfolds. 
 
Forecasted development of the current Solar Cycle 25 (NASA).
Forecasted development of the current Solar Cycle 25 (NASA).
 
These projections remain conditional on three factors: the accuracy of solar cycle forecasts, the stability of the regression relationship, and the interaction with concurrent macroeconomic cycles. Within those constraints, the framework offers a high-coherence, quantitatively grounded method for translating solar-cycle dynamics directly into forward estimates of inflation-adjusted Gold prices.

Reference:
 
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The extension of Belkin’s inflation-adjusted Gold price forecast through 2032 applies the same chaining methodology, using average ratios from column 5 in his table above and starting from $3,623.36 in 2025. Solar Cycle 25 began in 2019–2020 (2020 = Year 1) and is expected to end around 2030–2031, with Cycle 26 beginning. 
  
Inflation-adjusted Gold price forecast through 2032.
 
The resulting forecasts are 2025 at $3,623.36, 2026 at $2,536.35, 2027 at $2,587.08, 2028 at $2,664.69, 2029 at $3,011.10, 2030 at $3,462.77, 2031 at $2,735.59, and 2032 at $3,474.20. 
 
 
Inflation-adjusted Gold price will likely peak around 2033-2034.
  
The method is unchanged, with 2026–2027 matching Belkin's paper exactly. 2031 is the Cycle 25 minimum, and 2032 begins Cycle 26 using the average Year 1–to–Year 12 ratio. All figures are real (inflation-adjusted) and reflect the typical decline into solar minimum followed by a rebound. This is a statistical historical correlation; Gold prices are also driven by other factors, and Belkin’s solar cycle timing carries an uncertainty of about ±1 year.
 
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