Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains | Seth Golden

Buying the S&P 500 on US midterm election day and holding until June 30 of the following year has produced positive returns in every instance since 1942, averaging roughly +16% with a range of about +2.5% to +30.8% across all cycles, regardless of which party controlled the White House, Senate, or House. 

 

 

» If you bought on Midterm Election Day, held through June 30th of
the following year the S&P 500 was higher EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. « 

 

Midterm years themselves typically deliver the weakest average returns (~4–5%) and highest volatility/drawdowns in the four-year presidential cycle, with weakness often concentrated in Q3/Q4 ahead of November; the rebound usually begins in late Q4. The subsequent periods from the specific midterm-election-day-to-next-June-30 have been positive in every cycle examined, averaging ~16–18%.

Cycle rankings place Year 3 (the post-midterm/pre-election year) as the historical "sweet spot," typically outperforming Year 1 (~4–7%), Year 2/midterm (~3–5%, weakest), and Year 4/election (~6–8%), with average gains often cited in the 10–17% range as incumbents frequently pursue pro-growth policies.

 

Reference:
Seth Golden (July 27, 2026) - Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains. 

 

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.

Russia Warns UK of Nuclear Poseidon Tsunami

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at a naval meeting yesterday (July 26) that Russia is finalizing the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater vehicle for service entry, indicating the system is nearing operational deployment. Poseidon is an unmanned underwater vehicle of about 100 tons, equipped with a nuclear propulsion system providing virtually unlimited range. 

A single nuclear-armed Poseidon torpedo can devastate a coastal city.

It can operate at depths exceeding 1,000 meters and reach speeds of up to 70 knots (around 130 km/h). The system carries a nuclear payload of up to two megatons and is designed to strike coastal targets such as naval bases and port infrastructure, either through direct detonation or by generating a large-scale radioactive tsunami. Owing to its depth, speed, and maneuverability, Poseidon is considered extremely difficult to detect or intercept, with Russian leadership asserting it has no global equivalent.

On June 14, 2026, UK Royal Marines seized the Smyrtos, a sanctioned 
Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker, in the English Channel. 

 

Within this context, Putin referenced the potential use of Poseidon against the UK, framing it as a decisive strategic capability. He emphasized that while the underlying technologies exist, further refinement and adaptation to specific operational environments are ongoing. These statements suggest that, once fully deployed, Poseidon could be integrated into contingency planning involving high-value maritime or coastal targets.

Russian President at naval meeting, July 26, 2026.

In parallel, a Russian naval presence near the UK has drawn attention. On July 21, a Russian frigate conducted live-fire artillery exercises in international waters approximately 74 kilometers south of Plymouth, as reported by the UK Ministry of Defence and cited by the BBC. Initial warning shots were observed, and the Royal Navy, alongside a French military aircraft, closely monitored the activity. The French aircraft reportedly requested clarification of the vessel’s intentions via radio communication. Russia stated that the drills, which lasted around 30 minutes, were conducted in accordance with international maritime law and that nearby vessels had been notified in advance to maintain distance.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev warned that Russia retains all options to confront Britain, including the Poseidon nuclear-powered drone submarine, part of Russia’s naval nuclear system and described as a "Doomsday" weapon. The remarks followed Burnham's first meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on July 27, 2026. 

The frigate, identified as the Neustrashimy, was also reported to be escorting Russian tankers through the English Channel, where Russian naval transits are not uncommon. No injuries or direct engagements with other vessels occurred. However, the timing and location of the exercise have led to interpretations that it may have served as a strategic signal, particularly in light of recent political developments in the UK.

Ukraine targeted Iranian cargo ship and Russian oil rig in Caspian Sea, July 25, 2026.

Levante, Ukraine, Caspian Sea, Persian Gulf, Red Sea. Regional wars are merging. 

 

The new UK leadership is pursuing a more assertive stance toward Russia and Iran, including closer alignment with the US, a posture perceived by Moscow as escalatory. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Russian military activities were conducted within the bounds of international law and denied any intent to issue a direct threat. Nevertheless, he emphasized that repeated expressions of unconditional UK support for Ukraine have significantly reduced prospects for improved bilateral relations.

Meanwhile, In Sunny Greenland...

 

...an iceberg capsized off the coast of Ilulissat.

20-Week Hurst Cycle Low Due in SPX QQQ SOX SMH | Namzes

The last 80-day cycle bottomed on time (June 10). Semiconductor stocks (SOX/SMH) made marginal new all-time highs, while the broader indices—the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)—remained slightly below theirs.

PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX).

We are now due for a 20-week cycle low. July 17 marked day 109 and last Friday day 116, so a low may already be in, though it’s early to confirm. Alternatively, if this was only a 40-day low, the current 20-week cycle could extend into a late-August bottom. This would be the fourth bullish cycle in a row, increasing the likelihood that the next cycle is left-translated (bearish).

The subsequent 20-week low, following the August trough, is projected for late October, aligning with seasonal weakness and potentially offering a significant buying opportunity (see the April 2025 SOX projection).  A 3.5-year cycle (Kitchin Cycle) low is still expected ahead, but no major liquidation has occurred yet and models have not issued a sell signal. Market breadth remains acceptable; however, leadership—particularly in technology and semiconductors—is weakening, while defensive rotation is increasing, both of which are cautionary signals.

Using Hurst cycle analysis, the semiconductor ETF (SMH) is entering the 10-week FLD (Future Line of Demarcation). In a strong uptrend, this level typically acts as support; a break below would imply lower projections toward the 200-day moving average (200 DMA) and Q1 highs. For now, this remains a preliminary, low-confidence projection.

PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX).

The current 40-day cycle should continue rising for a few more trading days. The next 40-day low in August will help determine whether the new 20-week cycle is bullish or bearish. A bearish outcome would show early failure, indicating left translation.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

We are in a short-term downtrend, with the 50-day moving average (50 DMA) acting as a pivot near 600 on SMH. Above it, 620 is the key resistance level.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

 

Failure at 600 would open the path to liquidation toward Q1 highs, filling gaps below and repairing weak structure, including the large volume void between 420 and 537 (which includes the July 17 low).

 

Reference:
Namzes (July 27, 2026) - Hurst Cycles: 20W Low Due Across SPX QQQ SOX SMH.
 

See also:

Namzes (June 28, 2026) - Oil Outlook 2026: Navigating the Upcoming 40-Week Cycle Low.
Namzes (April 17, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.
Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.

 

Hurst Cycle Troughs and Peaks (November 2025 through July 24, 2026).

 

» The current 20-week cycle could extend into a late-August bottom. « 

Forward Cycle Projection through late 2026-early-2027.

Institutional Players Trade Levels—Retail Chases Price Action | Stacey Burke

All trading instruments operate within institutional price grids, where price is consistently contained inside an "institutional price box" defined by key numerical levels, typically anchored around major round numbers (e.g., 100, 250, 500, 1000). These levels act as liquidity magnets where large players accumulate, distribute, and size positions.  

 

» Pump, coil, and dump. The institutional price level is the neckline.

That is where the interaction matters, not the candle-by-candle narratives. «

Institutional players do not enter randomly or at arbitrary prices; they build positions around key levels and broader higher-time-frame zones shaped by mandates. They do not speculate. They do not day trade. They are engaged in global macroeconomic rebalancing, currency hedging, and sovereign capital extraction. Unlike retail traders, they execute large blocks of volume within these areas, creating an objective, non-random market framework visible across all instruments.  

 

»  Train your eyes to move horizontally at the levels.

What’s the level? Where to get in is staring you in the face. «

 

Markets move primarily through the behavior of Tier 1 and Tier 2 institutional participants: Tier 1 operators and their proxies (Bank for International Settlements (BIS), International Monetary Fund (IMF), central banks, sovereign wealth funds, major funds, and large liquidity providers) do not "trade." They do not use stop-losses nor technical indicators. They deploy capital in tranches so massive that, if executed at market price, they would break the global financial system. 

 

Tier 2 institutions (mega-banks like JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, UBS, LBMA, ICBC Standard Bank, major clearinghouses, highly sophisticated algorithmic HFT firms) provide liquidity, while hedge funds and other position traders operate around these key price levels. Their algorithms, including high-frequency trading systems, execute these processes; they are not interpreting candlestick patterns or trading short-term price action.

  

» The Dow 30 (5-minute chart) on Friday, July 16, 2026: Three levels of dump, coil, and pump. The Dow closed within an institutional price grid box, then dumped into the next lower grid level before exploding at the New York open—a trap on the open, then the shift. «

Higher-time-frame institutional price boundaries at major numerical levels act as triggers, attracting other position traders, hedge funds, and large market participants into the market. What appears as conventional price action, candlestick formations, and short-term market noise is often merely "retail fog"—a distraction that obscures the underlying institutional positioning and liquidity dynamics.

Order Flow Cycle.

The market continuously reveals these important price levels. There is nothing mystical or magical about them; they reflect the observable mechanics of liquidity, positioning, institutional order flow, and large-scale execution behavior. When liquidity is built, price coils sideways, and then it goes back and gets the money. The algorithm is there to get participation—to get you to play the game—and to build liquidity for the opposite side of the institutional agenda. The mechanism runs through those levels.

 

 

» If it is simple, you can repeat it, and scale it up in size. « 

It doesn’t matter what the instrument is. The behavior repeats: pump, coil, and dump—or dump, coil, and pump. The level is the neckline. That is where the interaction matters, not the candle-by-candle narratives.

Retail traders are obsessed with catching the low or catching the high. They're mesmerized by candlesticks and price action. A lot of traders are glazed over in a retail fog and don’t understand that institutions are not chasing fairy tales. The result is random, degenerate, emotional, impulsive behavior—winning streaks followed by blowing the account out. It's not about trying to figure out the algorithm; it's a mindset shift. 

 

Reference:

Stacey Burke (July 19, 2026) - Masterclass: The Only Trading Strategy You'll Ever Need. (video) 

Stacey Burke (2026) - Gold Apex Extraction. New York Session Institutional Blueprint. 

Stacey Burke (2022) - Best Trade Setups Playbook.

 

 

 » Price is always in a box. « 

 

 The Wyckoff Cycle.

August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

The chart isolates August performance across Trump's first term (2017–2020), 2025, and the 2018 midterm. Returns have exceeded August's bearish reputation, but the structure persists: early weakness, late strength.

 

Early-month weakness, stronger second half: On average, the Nasdaq closed up nearly 6%.

Lows on August 13 (Thu) and August 17 (Mon), followed by a near 3% DJIA rally into month-end.

 

Trump-era policy shocks have repeatedly triggered selloffs that quickly reversed into "TACO Trade" rallies. This cycle differs—tensions with Iran appear less susceptible to rapid de-escalation. Seasonality is supportive, but elevated valuations, geopolitical risk, and macro fragility increase the odds that August 2026 diverges from precedent.
 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - Can Trump Defy August’s Bearish Reputation Again?

 

S&P 500 2026 vs. best-correlated year: 2007 (84%).  

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.  

Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.

Brittany’s Giant Megalithic Menhirs: Who Built and Moved Them—and Why?

The Broken Menhir of Er Grah—also known as the Grand Menhir Brisé—is the largest known monolith ever transported and erected by Neolithic humans. Located in Locmariaquer, Brittany, France, this 300-ton granite pillar, measuring 21 meters in length, was put up some 6,000 years ago, more than 2,000 years before Stonehenge and the Great Pyramid of Giza.

 

The Broken Menhir of Er Grah.

The pillar did not stand alone; it was part of an alignment of 19 megaliths. Today, it lies shattered on the ground in four distinct sections. While an earthquake was once suspected to be the cause, researchers now believe it was intentionally pulled down and broken around 4300 BC during a period of ideological and religious shift. What makes it even more remarkable is its origin. The stone was quarried across the Gulf of Morbihan, near the Auray river estuary 10 kilometers away, meaning it had to be moved over land, then by water, and then over land again. Even with modern technology, that's no small task.  

 

High-relief carving of the Roman war god Mars on the menhir of Kervadel. 

 

Dragging is out of the question—the friction would have made it impossible. The only realistic method is rolling: a massive platform supported by dozens of wooden rollers, distributing the weight step by step along a prepared track? But that raises another challenge—how to load 300 tons onto a boat? What kind of vessel could even carry it? These weren't primitive people. They planned, tested, and organized. If they could move the stone a few meters, they could move it kilometers—repeating the same process over and over. And yet, most explanations focus on symbolism. The real mystery is far more concrete: How did they actually do it?

 

Some have suggested that all these megaliths were transported on ice, but the ice sheets had retreated roughly 15,000 years earlier, leaving no glaciation 6,000 years ago. Moreover, Neolithic farming and livestock societies required a stable, ice-free climate capable of supporting the workforce needed for such projects. Physically, heavy stones would grind into ice rather than glide across it, becoming embedded within a few meters. 

   

Kerloas Menhir (Menhir de Kervéatoux) in Plouarzel.

 

The Kerloas Menhir, another giant cucumber-shaped granite monolith in Finistère, weighs an estimated 150 tons. Standing just under 10 meters tall—originally 12 meters before a lightning strike broke its tip—it rests on a high, flat plateau 130 meters above sea level and remains visible from 30 kilometers away. The Kerloas Menhir's purpose remains uncertain, but its prominent position suggests it also served as a territorial marker. Its transport was itself a remarkable Neolithic undertaking: the 150-ton granite block was moved two kilometers from the nearest outcrop and hauled up a 100-meter incline to reach the elevated plateau, unlike many megaliths that were moved along downhill routes. 

 

Kergadiou menhirs in a farmer's field in Plourin.

A few kilometers away sit the Kergadiou menhirs. The taller surviving stone reaches 8.75 meters and weighs around 50 tons, standing on a coastal plain 63 meters above sea level and visible from the sea. Beside it lies a fallen menhir measuring 10 meters in length and weighing roughly 60 tons; if re-erected, it would rank among the tallest in France and the world. 

Carnac stones—over 3,000 menhirs, alignments, dolmens,
and tumuli—the world's largest megalithic complex.

Local legends long associated menhirs with fertility and healing. Women pressed their bellies against the stones—sometimes using specific postures to conceive a boy or girl—or stood on opposite sides with their husbands. Single women performed rituals hoping for good marriages, and the sick touched ailing body parts to the stones for magical healing.

 

19th-century images of the Christianized Champ-Dolent menhir.

 

As Christianity spread into Celtic and pagan regions between the 5th and 7th centuries, the Church often absorbed rather than destroyed these sacred sites, gradually Christianizing megaliths whose origins had already been forgotten in order to redirect existing rituals toward Catholic worship. An 1867 engraving by Félix Benoist shows the Kergadiou menhir topped with a small Latin cross. The cross vanished, but a drilled socket at the flattened peak remains visible.

Saint-Uzec menhir in Pleumeur-Bodou.

 

Other menhirs underwent similar transformations. The Champ-Dolent menhir once featured crosses, including a version flanked by two figures. In the 1970s, researchers used this site to test ancient construction methods, successfully raising a large menhir using ropes, steel cables, and wooden A-frame bipods for leverage. Meanwhile, the Saint-Uzec menhir was heavily re-carved with a cross and relief scenes of Christ's Passion, including the ladder and pliers. 

 

Ring of Brodgar, Orkney Islands, Scotland (2600 to 2400 BC).

Burial tomb Dolmen de Sa Coveccada, Sardinia (3000 to 2700 BC).

 

Dolmen de Fontanaccia, Corsica (4000 to 3000 BC).
 

Ġgantija megalithic temple complex, Gozo Island, Malta (3600 to 3200 BC).

 

Human remains found at the bases of menhirs span from the Bronze Age and Iron Age through the Middle Ages, revealing centuries of changing use, while dolmens  and burial tumuli—stone and earth mounds covering central chambers—showed less frequent reuse.