Why a US War with Venezuela Would Benefit Russia | Dmitry Seleznyov

As cynical and crude as it may sound, a US war with Venezuela would benefit Russia. Venezuela could become America's "Ukraine," diverting US attention and resources away from our own conflict in Ukraine. The United States risks getting bogged down in a war it starts—especially if it launches a ground operation. In that case, Venezuela could turn into a second Vietnam for the US. Either way, South American countries would likely rally in solidarity to support it, uniting the continent in a fight against the "gringos." 

 

 » Uniting the continent in a fight against the "gringos." «

It won't be possible to tear the country apart with impunity; there won't be an easy walkover, and the US could face unacceptable losses. On the international stage, Russia and China would provide support—both politically and through hybrid means. On one hand, we'd be whispering sweet nothings to those Witkoffs or whoever's in charge in that administration, while on the other, quietly fueling Maduro's fire. Why not? If others can do it, why can't we? Of course, we'd offer help with the constraint that we're still tied down in Ukraine, but we'd do what we can.  

 

» Why not? If others can do it, why can't we? «

 

If things in Venezuela escalate to a hot phase and body bags start flowing back to Trump's "Great America," the MAGA electorate won't like it. Trump was elected to do the opposite. Fighting a war in Venezuela isn't just getting involved for Israel's sake or bombing Iran on the other side of the world—this one's right in America's backyard, with short supply lines. Not to mention that Trump would permanently lose his carefully cultivated image as a "peacemaker," the one he wants to be remembered for in history. A war in Venezuela would brand him forever as the man who tied a bloody ribbon of a second Vietnam around America's neck. Does Trump want that? Doubtful.

 

But Trump is pushing hard—he always plays the bluff game. Recently, Mr. Twitter declared a no-fly zone, and just the other day, he went even further with a full blockade. In effect, that's already a declaration of war. Will Maduro escalate? Sure, a direct conflict could end in different ways, but if Trump has already sentenced the Venezuelan president, what does he have to lose? Escalation often leads to de-escalation. Remember how young Kim Jong-un told Trump to get lost on surrendering nuclear weapons—and nothing happened; he ended up as a "good guy."
 

But for now, our friend Maduro is acting unconvincingly. Chanting "peace, peace, peace" won't stop an inevitable war. "You're only guilty of making me hungry," as the fable goes—red-haired Donnie's intentions are clear. So why wait? Look at the "barefoot" Houthis—they drove off American ships from clustering near their coast. And they're still standing strong. 

Or what—surrender?

Quoted from:
Dmitry Seleznyov (December 18, 2025) - Why a US War with Venezuela Would Benefit Russia.

(Чем выгодна России война США с Венесуэлой.) 

 

» The Pathetic Empire. «

Caracas, December 18, 2025: Venezuelan naval forces have begun escorting non-sanctioned oil tankers carrying petroleum derivatives, reportedly destined for China, in direct response to US President Donald Trump's December 16 announcement of a "total and complete blockade" targeting sanctioned vessels entering or leaving Venezuela. The escalation follows the US seizure on December 10 of the tanker Skipper, carrying approximately 1.9 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, which Trump indicated the US would retain. 

 

Venezuela has condemned these actions as aggression, requesting an urgent United Nations Security Council meeting to address perceived violations of international law. Domestically, PDVSA workers staged protests across multiple states in defense of national sovereignty, while Vice President Delcy Rodríguez reaffirmed the uninterrupted operation of the hydrocarbons sector. Amid the tensions, President Nicolás Maduro reported that Venezuela achieved 9 percent GDP growth in 2025 despite sanctions, with projections of at least 7 percent for 2026.

On Legitimacy, Leadership, Taxes, and "The Real Problem" | Nayib Bukele

I am here to tell you that in El Salvador, globalism is already dead. If you want globalism to die here in the United States as well, you must be willing to unapologetically fight against everything and everyone that stands for it. 

 

 » Winning the election is not enough. «

Nayib Armando Bukele Ortez (born 1981), the 81st President of El Salvador, serving since 2019; re-elected in 2024

with 84.6% of the vote, and currently maintaining approval ratings between 79% and 91% as of December 2025.

 

[...] The next President of the United States must not only win an election; he must also have the vision, the will, and the courage to do whatever it takes. Above all, he must be able to identify the underlying forces conspiring against him. These dark forces are already taking over your country. You may not see it yet, but it is already happening. 

 

[...] There are other symptoms that are even more difficult to diagnose—for instance, the financial situation of the United States. When I talk to my conservative friends here in the US, they always tell me that the problem is high taxes. But they are wrong. Of course, taxes are extremely high here in the United States, but that’s not the real problem. The real problem is not the high taxes themselves, but the fact that they are not even funding your government. 

 

So, who is financing your government? Your government is financed by Treasury bonds. Paper. And who buys the Treasury bonds? Mostly the Fed. And how does the Fed buy them? By printing money. But what backing does the Fed have for that money being printed? The Treasury bonds themselves. So basically, the Fed finances your government by printing money out of thin air.

If your government can print unlimited amounts of money out of thin air, why does it collect taxes? The answer is simple, but it's very shocking: The real problem is that you pay high taxes only to uphold the illusion that you are funding your government. It’s shocking, but it’s true: Your government is funded by money printing: paper backed with paper. This bubble will inevitably burst.

 

The situation is even worse than it seems, because if most Americans and the rest of the world were to become aware of this farce, confidence in your currency would be lost. The dollar would fall, and Western civilization with it. If the next president of the United States doesn’t make the necessary policies and structural changes, sooner or later that bubble will burst.

 

» Israel First. Trump has fully betrayed America. «

Genocide MIGA ZioDon, "1st Jewish POTUS," December 16, 2025.

[...] Winning the election is not enough. It will require a total re-engineering of the government from top to bottom. It will entail making difficult decisions. But you have the right to determine your own fate. [...] That is my message to you: put up the fight, because in the end, it will be worth it. You will have your country back. May God bless you.

 

Quoted from:

Nayib Bukele (February 22, 2024) - Keynote Address at CPAC. (video)

 

 

» The complete degeneracy of the US political class is on full display. «

 

Winning the election is not enough: 

1. Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko (born 1954), the 1st President of the Republic of Belarus, serving since July 1994; re-elected in 2025 with approximately 88% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 75%-85% as of December 2025.

2. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin (born 1952), the 4th President of the Russian Federation, serving since May 2012; re-elected in 2024 with approximately 87% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 82%-86% as of December 2025.
3. Nayib Armando Bukele Ortez (born 1981), the 81st President of El Salvador, serving since June 2019; re-elected in 2024 with approximately 85% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 79%-91% as of December 2025.
4. Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo (born 1962), the 66th President of Mexico, serving since October 2024; elected in 2024 with approximately 60% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 70%-79% as of December 2025.
5. Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron (born 1977), the 8th President of the French Fifth Republic, serving since May 2017; re-elected in 2022 with approximately 59% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 14%-18% as of December 2025.
6. Javier Gerardo Milei (born 1970), the 59th President of Argentina, serving since December 2023; elected in 2023 with approximately 56% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 42%-52% as of December 2025.
7. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (born 1954), the 12th President of the Republic of Turkey, serving since August 2014; re-elected in 2023 with approximately 52% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 35%-45% as of December 2025.
8. Nicolás Maduro Moros (born 1962), the 34th President of Venezuela, serving since 2013; re-elected in 2024 with approximately 51% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 65%-90% as of December 2025.
9. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (born 1945), the 39th President of Brazil, serving since January 2023; elected in 2022 with approximately 51% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 40%-43% as of December 2025.
10. Gustavo Francisco Petro Urrego (born 1960), the 35th President of Colombia, serving since August 2022; elected in 2022 with approximately 50% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 30%-36% as of December 2025.
11. Donald John Trump (born 1946), the 47th President of the United States, serving since January 2025; re-elected in 2024 with approximately 50% of the popular vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 38%-41% as of December 2025.
12. Mark Joseph Carney (born 1965), the 24th Prime Minister of Canada, serving since March 2025; elected in 2025 with approximately 43% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 62% as of December 2025.
13. Narendra Damodardas Modi (born 1950), the 14th Prime Minister of the Republic of India, serving since May 2014; re-elected in 2024 with approximately 37% of the vote for his party, and maintaining an approval rating around 70%-78% as of December 2025.
14. Keir Rodney Starmer (born 1962), the 58th Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, serving since July 2024; elected in 2024 with approximately 34% of the vote for his party, and maintaining an approval rating around 20%-25% as of December 2025.
15. Friedrich Merz (born 1955), the 10th Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, serving since May 2025; elected in 2025 with approximately 32% of the vote for his party, and maintaining an approval rating around 23%-30% as of December 2025.

Latin America Facing the Storm: Rallying the Global Majority | Alexander Dugin

Trump is threatening to invade Venezuela, Colombia, and Mexico simultaneously under the pretext of fighting drug cartels. It looks like he is beginning his own “special military operation.” If he had chosen Canada and Greenland as his targets, that would deserve full support. That would be a blow against globalism. As it stands, it is pure imperialism, a direct intervention.

» We must all show what a global majority truly is. «

An attack on countries that clearly lean towards multipolarity is a blow against us—against greater humanity. Israel attacked Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran, and Syria. And the Islamic world stayed silent, allowing it to happen. 

 

» Invade Canada, not Venezuela. «

 

Now the United States is preparing to invade three countries of Latin American civilization at once. If they follow the principle of each for itself, this will strengthen Western hegemony for a while longer. The countries of Latin America must unite and present an ultimatum to the United States. Right now, we must all—every BRICS country—show what a global majority truly is.

Quoted from:
Alexander Dugin (December 3, 2025) - Latin America Facing the Storm: Rallying the Global Majority.

 

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro yesterday,

dancing to changa-tronics in Caracas. 

» Suspend Sec. Hegseth and Admiral Bradley for their war crimes off the coast of Venezuela! «

 Col. Douglas Mcgregor, December 3, 2025.

 

See also:

Scott Ritter (December 3, 2025) - Pete Hegseth: The Self-Made War Criminal. (video) 

 Col. Douglas Mcgregor (December 3, 2025) - Calling for suspension of Sec. Hegseth and Admiral Bradley. (video)

The Lancet Global Health (August 15, 2025) - "Trump's 2017-2018 sanctions killed 40,000 Venezuelans."
Pepe Escobar (November 28, 2024) - Trump’s Coming War on BRICS and the Global South.

Is Ukraine Developing Nuclear Weapons with UK and France? | Gerry Nolan

If Kim Dotcom is right (his bating average is very high), and Ukraine really is developing nuclear weapons with UK and French help, then Europe isn’t just escalating. It’s playing Russian roulette with civilization. And the worst part? It’s plausible. Horrifyingly plausible.

» Ukraine is developing nuclear weapons with the help of the UK and France. This is why the peace process takes so long. 

The US knows and it is playing on time. Ukraine is a US client state. If Trump wanted peace he would have it immediately. 

Russia is being played. « — Kim Dotcom, December 1, 2025.

NATO’s top general has now crossed the line from deterrence into madness. Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone has publicly floated the idea of "preventive action" against Russia—meaning pre-emptive strikes on targets "where drones could be ready to be launched." Europe isn’t defending itself; Europe is announcing that it is preparing for war and is ready to strike first. This is elite panic—the behavior of governments that fear their own people far more than they fear Moscow.

This adds up sadly... That Ukraine is developing a nuclear program with assistance from Britain and France, a charge that will be dismissed in Western capitals, but one that fits too neatly with Kiev's own public statements. This isn’t a wild accusation from the fringe. Ukraine’s leadership has repeatedly signaled nuclear ambitions: from Zelensky in Munich hinting at abandoning the Budapest Memorandum, to the ambassador, Andrey Melnyk, in Berlin threatening nuclear rearmament, to “we may need nukes if NATO won’t take us.” These aren’t slips. They are warnings and confessions disguised as hypotheticals.

Zelensky's potential replacement, Zaluzhny, suggests Ukraine could deploy nuclear weapons as a

security guarantee. According to the dismissed general, other options include NATO membership or

a "large military contingent" to confront Russia. They just crave a nuclear showdown.
 

And now? Europe is openly discussing preemptive strikes on Russia. NATO’s top general, Cavo Dragone, floated "preventive action" against Russian sites, code language for first-strike doctrine. Russia responded by calling it "an extraordinarily irresponsible step." They’re right. This is not deterrence but brinkmanship from a political class that has lost its mind, and knows it.

 

» I was actually in Monaco earlier this summer… and every other car there was an Italian supercar, like a Pagani or Bugatti, and

they all had UKRAINE plates. They’re STEALING that money, and it’s just one big corrupt scandal. « — Donald Trump Jr.

 

Why is the claim more than plausible? Because Kiev has the motive, is on record expressing the intent (to give cover for its patrons), the remnants of a Soviet scientific base, and the Western patrons capable of providing the expertise. And because a desperate state with collapsing front lines, a sacrificed population, and dwindling Western patience will consider anything, including the unthinkable, to secure leverage.

Rustem Umerov sticks to the script: "gratitude to the American people, the leadership, Trump’s peace initiative." 

"The US is hearing us, the US is supporting us, the US is walking beside us." Little substance, lots of pleasantries.

 

And Europe? Europe is no brake. Europe is the accelerant. London and Paris, terrified of their own political collapse, are escalating in every direction: naval-drone terror, hybrid and kinetic warfare, now nuclear ambiguity. They fear their own voters more than they fear Moscow. That’s why they push Zelensky to take risks no sane leadership would touch. Because if Ukraine falls, their governments fall with it.

Zelensky and "The Spirit of Ukraine," 2022 and 2025.

This is how great powers sleepwalk into catastrophe: a desperate puppet state, unhinged European elites, and nuclear ambiguity. And a military alliance openly debating first strikes on a nuclear superpower.

» It's over. NATO and the EU are finished. The Empire of Lies is crumbling. «  

Col.  Douglas Macgregor.

 

The world is standing at the abyss. Not because Russia wants war, but because Europe’s political class is trying to outrun the judgment waiting for them at home. And if they drag Ukraine into becoming a terror regime with nukes, or drag NATO into first-strike doctrine, the next miscalculation won’t be “hybrid warfare.” It will be irreversible. We are closer to the abyss today than at any point since 1962, and the people lighting the fuse are in Brussels, London, and Paris. Not Moscow.

Quoted from:
Gerry Nolan (December 1, 2025) - Is Ukraine Developing Nuclear Weapons with UK and France?

How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle | Ray Dalio

The big cycle is the period from one era of great change and turbulence, in which various systems or orders are transformed, typically through fighting, to the next. Then, through that evolutionary process, we arrive at yet another period of breakdown. The last big cycle began in 1945 at the end of World War II.

 

» This will lead to dramatic changes. «

 

Within that world order, there are shorter-term cycles, like the economic and political cycles. The economic cycles have lasted for about six years from one recession to the next, and they unfold in a way where the economy is weak.  

 

 » In considering which spending to cut, when one looks at the possibilities, one quickly notices that about 70% of the non-

interest spending is considered “mandatory”—i.e., it is either contractually required or politically nearly impossible to cut. «

 

Central banks put a lot of money and credit into it. That causes markets to go up. There's a lot of spending; it gets too hot; inflation rises. They tighten monetary policy, and that causes the economy to go down into recession. Since 1945, there have been twelve and a half of those.

 

» It appears clear that, as the gaps in people’s productivity, wealth, and values grow along with

levels of dissatisfaction about how their democracies are working, it leads to more populist conflict 

and more policies that are like those in the 1905-14 and the 1933-38 periods. «

Average global levels of political polarization since 1900.

 

We sometimes don't pay as much attention to the big cycle when it reaches excesses, such as debt excesses. This is because debts rise relative to incomes. If you look at a chart of most countries, their debts keep rising relative to their incomes, but the incomes are needed to pay the debts. So, when you get to a point where the debts are high relative to the incomes, and debt service is very expensive and starts to crowd out other spending, and investors do not want to hold the debt as much because the debt does not provide them good returns and they start to sell that debt, you begin to have a change in that big debt cycle.

 

 » For the United States, the big cycles look mostly unfavorable. «

 Ray Dalio's “Power Index” for great powers and empires over time.

 

That big debt cycle typically corresponds with the big domestic political and social cycle because wealth and well-being matter to people. When there's disruption to people's wealth and well-being, then you have political disruption, such as what we are experiencing now. Consequently, there's more fighting over wealth and power, and so on. These things come together, which then creates the new conflicts, the new big conflicts: the changes and breaking down of the old orders, the old monetary orders, the old domestic political order, the geopolitical order, and such things to cause seismic shifts. These are periods of great risk for the markets and great risk for society. It's very important that they're understood.

Quoted from: 
Ray Dalio (May 28, 2025) - The Big Cycle Explained in 3 Minutes. (video)

Countries are allowing their reserves or assets to decline while acquiring gold. Central banks bought more gold 

in 2025 than in any year in history. They are not telling the public why, but their actions speak volumes.

See also:

Ray Dalio (2025) - How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle (Principles). 

Ray Dalio (October 30, 2025) - Gold is the Safest Money. 

Ray Dalio (April 7, 2025) - Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs. 

Ray Dalio (March 26, 2017) - The Developed World Populism Index.

Martin Armstrong  (October 24, 2025) - "The United States Is Due for Another Massive Civil War". 

Javier Milei's Chainsaw Massacre of the Trump Presidency? | Alex Krainer

Yesterday, Argentinians voted in midterm elections which were critical as the first nationwide referendum since President Javier Milei came to power and introduced his radical economic reforms. The recent bailout(s) from the US Treasury helped Milei’s La Libertad Avanza Party win the elections with 40.8% of the vote. However, not everyone is convinced: that result was better than even Milei’s own party hoped for.

» To bail out his [Bessent's] dumb friends on Wall Street, that’s banana republic level corruption. «

 

Inevitably, haters will say that the polls were rigged which won’t help the government’s legitimacy. Either way, Argentina will remain stuck in a downward spiral. Milei’s reforms have been so staggeringly successful that keeping Argentina’s economy scotched together required repeated massive rescue packages this year.

First, on 11 April 2025, the IMF approved a $20 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to support Milei’s awesome economic program, strengthen foreign currency reserves, and facilitate the removal of capital controls. The IMF is seldom that generous but it seems that it wasn’t generous enough that time, requiring the Trump administration to step in last month. On 24 September, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced another $20 billion bailout for Argentina.

"El Bobo de Wallstreet"—"The Dumb-Ass of Wall Street".

Under the plan, the US Treasury provided Argentina with US dollars in exchange for Argentine pesos. This raised the awkward question: why did Trump’s MAGA, “America first,” administration put its taxpayers on the hook for Argentina? Bessent said that Argentina was “a systemically important US ally in Latin America,” and that the US “stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina. All options for stabilization are on the table.”

» [Trump] may have to distance himself from Bessent or even sack him. «

 

Well, OK then, but even supposing that Bessent’s justification for the huge bailout of Argentina is good enough, it didn’t seem that the bailout was big enough: the Argentine Peso continued to crash and hit a record low on Friday at nearly 1,490 pesos to the dollar. Before Milei won Argentine presidential elections on 19 November 2023, it took about 360 pesos to buy one dollar. Ever since, Argentina’s currency has been collapsing in spite of the successive IMF/US bailouts:

 

» Either way, Argentina will remain stuck in a downward spiral. «

 

“All options” being “on the table,” on 15 October, weeks after Bessent announced the $20 billion swap, he said that he was arranging a separate $20 billion facility financed by banks and private equity. But for the deal to stick, it may still have to be backed by the US Treasury. A-gain. And in spite of President Trump himself admitting that the bailout might not work and would provide little benefit to the American people. So again: if this is a burden on the American people with no benefit to them, then why is the MAGA administration doing it? [...] As it happens, Rob Citrone is a personal friend and former colleague of Scott Bessent. Here’s what the “Popular Information” newsletter reported earlier this month:

Major Argentine media outlets are now reporting that Citrone asked Bessent for a United States rescue package. Ariel Maciel, Political Economy Editor at Perfil, a large Argentine media outlet, wrote that after the Buenos Aires elections, Citrone “returned to his friend and former colleague… to request a second bailout, this time from the very coffers Bessent manages: the US Treasury.”

CE Noticias Financieras, a major wire service in Latin America, similarly reported that after Argentine officials ran into resistance with lower-level Trump officials, “Citrone managed to connect with Bessent to get him to intervene directly.” But from there, it gets a bit worse than that still: “Maciel also noted that two weeks before Bessent announced the bailout, Citrone purchased additional bonds for “almost nothing.” Maciel said the timing of Citrone’s recent purchases has raised “suspicions” that Citrone had access to “confidential information.”

If true, these arrangements present horribly bad optics for Donald Trump and his administration. If his Treasury Secretary is using his office and American taxpayers’ money to bail out his dumb friends on Wall Street, that’s banana republic level corruption. Any substance of this story will be milked for all it’s worth - and it could be worth a lot - by his political opponents at home and abroad. It doesn’t even matter whether Trump himself was aware of the nature of the bailouts.

Trump may have bought the ideological and geostrategic story about the chainsaw freedom crusader Milei and Argentina being a systemically important ally. In that case, he may have to distance himself from Bessent or even sack him. But even so, the damage has been done. It is hard to see how this won’t undermine the confidence in his administration and further erode his MAGA-base support. On top of that, corrupt dealings with Argentina and Trump’s aggressive stance toward Venezuela, has worsened his administration’s standing in the region:

» Like nobody’s ever seen before. «

The MIGA-MAGA gaga crowds are diminishing, and not only in Argentina.

 

Even if you bring all your carrier strike groups to the Caribbean Sea and threaten action “like nobody’s ever seen before,” the ultimate struggle is and always will be that for the hearts and minds of the people. That struggle is being lost like nobody’s ever seen before.

Quoted from:
Alex Krainer (October 27, 2025) - Milei's chainsaw massacre of Trump presidency?

 

See also:
Alexander Markovics (February 20, 2024) - Javier Milei - Latin America's Prime Golem Zionist.

US Economy: A Closed-Loop Scam And AI-Bubble About to Pop? | Bloomberg

The entire US economy right now seems to be seven companies sending a trillion fake dollars back and forth to each other. This isn't a joke. This is actually real, and the AI scam is going to come crashing down. Soon?

The AI Funding Loop Scam and Bubble according to Bloomberg, October 8, 2025. 

 

Sooner or later. A Bloomberg diagram (see above on the right) reveals trillions in circular AI deals among tech giants like Nvidia ($4.5T market cap), Microsoft ($3.9T), and OpenAI ($500B valuation). Examples include Nvidia's $100 billion investment in OpenAI and Oracle's $300 billion cloud partnership. This interconnected funding, detailed in Bloomberg's October 8, 2025, report, has fueled a $1 trillion AI market and $192.7 billion in 2025 Venture Capital investments. However, as these mutual deals lack broad economic productivity gains, they raise concerns about a potential bubble.
 

The "Magnificent 7" make up approximately 30% of the S&P 500.

  

The "Magnificent 7" mega-cap tech stocks—Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta , Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—make up approximately 30% of the S&P 500 and have driven most of the index’s recent performance. As of October 26, 2025, their combined market capitalization exceeds $21 trillion, highlighting their outsized global influence. Nvidia leads the group with a $4.535 trillion market cap, driven by AI chip demand, with Apple and Microsoft close behind in the $3.9 trillion range. While Tesla has the lowest capitalization in the group, its explosive one-year growth reflects optimism around EVs and autonomy despite recent volatility.

» We're gonna win so much that you may even get tired of winning! You’ll say: 'Please, please, it’s

too much winning. We can't take it anymore, Mr. President. It’s too much!' And I’ll reply—'No, it isn’t! 

We have to keep winning, we have to win more!' «

 Circus Maximus Ringmaster Narcissus during his presidential election campaign in October 2024.

 

The group's average trailing Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 70 is significantly higher than the S&P 500's average of about 25, signaling substantial bubble risks. Nvidia’s P/E of 53.22 and Tesla’s extremely high 303.30 suggest a premium pricing based on lofty future growth expectations. However, forward P/E ratios, such as Alphabet’s 23.31, indicate potential P/E compression if growth moderates. Alphabet leads the group with a 60.44% one-year return, fueled by ad revenue and AI integrations like Gemini. Tesla's 66.51% one-year gain stands out but is contrasted by a -3.40% daily drop, tied to recent production updates. Year-to-date, Nvidia (+38.73%) and Alphabet (+37.75%) are the top performers, while Amazon (+2.20%) and Apple (+5.32%) have cooled amid broader market rotations.

Reference:
Bloomberg (October 8, 2025) - The Circular OpenAI, Nvidia and AMD Deals Raising Fears of a New Tech Bubble.

Bloomberg (October 8, 2025) - OpenAI, Nvidia Fuel $1T AI Market With Circular Deals (Video). 

Bloomberg (October 7, 2025) - OpenAI’s Nvidia, AMD Deals Boost $1 Trillion AI Boom With Circular Deals.

  

US margin debt reached a record high of $1.13 trillion in September 2025, a 6.3% monthly surge, according to FINRA margin statistics. The Wolf Street chart above shows this leverage at 2% of the S&P 500 market capitalization, surpassing the 1.7% peak seen during the dot-com bubble in March 2000. This metric tracks investor borrowing for stock purchases; historical spikes, such as the 2.5% of market cap level preceding the 2008 financial crisis, have often foreshadowed sharp market corrections, as borrowed funds amplify both rallies and forced selling during downturns.

 

» As bearish as I want to be, I’d say the odds of any pullback being only a consolidation and

not the real reversal are increasing as the next major cycle inflection is early next year. «
Tom Pizzuti, October 27, 2025. 

 

October 29 (Wed): META, MSFT, GOOGL; October 30 (Thu): AMZN, AAPL.

See also:

TPR (August 13, 2025) - Buffett Indicator Hits All-Time High with Market Cap-to-GDP Ratio at 212.1%. 

TPR (October 9, 2025) - The Dow-to-Gold Ratio (DJI/XAU) Collapses: Get Ready for Tangible Assets.

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

Lieutenant-General Sir John Bagot Glubb (1978) - The Age of Decadence.