Sunday, October 25, 2015

SPX vs AstroMetric Indicator

SPX vs Fibonacci Time-Price Relations

Sideways to down into Nov 02 (Tue) filling the gap around 2,056? DOWN Mon-Tue-Wed Oct 26-28 (Full Moon), UP Thur-Fri Oct 29-30,
DOWN Mon-Tues Nov 2-3? Afterwards UP to higher high in the second half of November?

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Martin Armstrong's Political Economy | 72 Year Cycle of Political Change

"Bretton Woods took place in 1944. Adding 72 years brings us to 2016. This model has been
uncanny in predicting political change." (recent interview HERE)
Martin Armstrong (Jan 8, 2013) - Where does the Political-Economy Model stand right now for the West? The answer to that question is the epic turn appears to be 2016. Bretton Woods took place in 1944. Adding 72 years brings us to 2016. This model has been uncanny in predicting political change incorporating the same frequency for volatility. The Russian Revolution of 1917 was right on target with the fall of the Berlin Wall 72 years later in 1989. This strongly warns that this wave in the Economic Confidence Model due to peak 2015.75, will be extremely important. This is the time frame we have been looking at for the past 30 years for the next Sovereign Debt Crisis. Certain trends simply cannot be sustained beyond 72 years without change. 

"High Treason" - Federal Republic of Germany established May 23, 1949 + 72 Years = 2021
This time that change is coming by dragging the politicians by the hair cave-man style. How intelligent people just cannot see the problem with borrowing perpetually and never having any intention of paying off the debt, it’s simply unimaginable. The previous cycle turning in 1872 and that led to what is known as the “long depression” of the 19th century everyone concedes lasted for 26 years. This is why the real estate model is 78 years. It too is closely aligned with political turmoil that always brings structural change [...] Consequently, we are looking at 2014 for the beginning of a rise in separatism and civil unrest around the West. Then we see 2016 and the start of a nasty economic decline. We could see things get real bad during the 2016-2020 phase. That may actually be the bottom in the European economic meltdown (see also HERE)

Martin Armstrong (Oct 17, 2015) - Each country has its own unique cycle. There was a very major turning point in France that nearly became a revolution [in May 1968]. Even Charles de Gaulle secretly left France for a few hours after fearing for his life and a revolution [...] The French socialist state is now collapsing under Hollande. Civil unrest will erupt moving into 2017 and then there is the risk of another major cultural revolution as the youth do not share the same values as the socialistic elites who are in control. We will see that risk erupt by 2020 or 51.6 years from the May 1968 cultural revolution (see also HERE)

Monday, October 19, 2015

United States Just Lost Superiority In Conventional Warfare

The biggest event that took place in Syria as part of Operation Hmeymim was the use by
the Russian Navy’s Caspian Flotilla of 26 seaborne land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs)
that hit 11 Daesh and Jabhat al-Nusra military targets inside Syria, which were located
about 1,500 km. away from the missile launch site (HERE)
Thierry Meyssan (Oct 19, 2015) - Moscow’s military intervention in Syria has not simply overturned the fortunes of war and spread panic throughout the ranks of the jihadist groups. It has also shown the rest of the world the current capacities of the Russian army in situations of real warfare. To everyone’s astonishment, it has proved to possess a system of signal jamming capable of rendering the Atlantic Alliance deaf and blind (A2/AD = anti-access/area denial). Despite a far superior budget, the United States have just lost their military domination.

Vladimir Kozin (Oct 13, 2015) - The firing of cruise missiles by the Russian Navy, from the Caspian Sea, was not necessary for its military operation in Syria. However, this convincing show of force, demonstrates Russia’s technical superiority over NATO in this domain. Therefore, the so-called anti-missile shield, currently deployed by the Atlantic Alliance around Russia, is now obsolete.

SPX vs JUP-SAT Cycle

The Jupiter-Saturn Cycle pointed to the market turn last Thursday (Oct 15, 2015). The next CIT should be Oct 23 (Fri). The Solunar Map hints
to a short-term market low on Tuesday, October 20 and another rise into the end of this week. This would be in line also with Alphee Lavoie's
and Mike Korrell's forecasts of another week sideways to up in stocks. 
Credits: BusinessInsider and Deutsche Bank

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Russell 2000 vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

Since about ten days there is a growing contradiction between the intermediate Delta count (118 CD) and the medium- and long-term counts
(354 CD = 1 Lunar Year and 1417 CD = 4 Lunar Year cycle). These cycles may just have inverted their polarity (see below).

SPX vs Astrometric Indicator

SPX vs Sunspots

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Are 97% Of Climate Scientists Complete Morons?

Looking e.g. at the open minded and innovative scientific findings in H.H. Clayton's excellent World Weather Records of 1923, perfectly illustrates
the intellectual degradation of nowadays mainstream climate sciences, deluded and obsessed by the fraudulent and absurd malthusian ideology
of man-made global warming and the genocidal cult of 'climate protection' (HERE + HERE)
Tony Heller (Oct 16, 2015) - Atmospheric CO2 has risen by 100 parts per million (one part per ten thousand) over the past century [...] Experts claim that this one molecule has heated the other 10,000 molecules up by more than one degree centigrade. In order for one molecule to heat up 10,000 other molecules by 1°C, the effective temperature of that one molecule would have to be 10,000°C – about twice the temperature of the surface of the Sun. Only a complete moron would believe something so ludicrous, which is why they [IPCC] say 97% of [climate] scientists agree on this utter nonsense.

If the name of a single person were to be identified with the birth of paleoclimatology, it would be Vladimir Peter Köppen (1846–1940),
a German-Russian geographer, meteorologist, climatologist and botanist. In 1924 he and his son-in-law Alfred Wegener published a paper
called 'Die Klimate der Geologischen Vorzeit' (The Climates Of The Geological Past) providing crucial support to the astronomical
theory on ice ages of Milutin Milanković (1879-1958).

Thursday, October 15, 2015

SPX vs Maximum Elongation of Mercury

Previous posts HERE
Financial Markets and Solar Activity HERE
Richard Nolle (Sep 30, 2015) - Mercury Max refers to a phase in the Earth-Mercury-Sun relationship, when Mercury swings around from behind the Sun to catch up and pass the slower orbiting Earth. As it does this, Mercury draws closer and closer to our home planet, until it reaches its perigee (closest approach to Earth), coincident with what’s called the inferior Sun-Mercury conjunction. At this time, Earth, Mercury and the Sun are aligned with Mercury in the middle, passing between us and the Sun. Mercury Max is a cycle of enhanced dynamism in the Earth-Mercury-Sun relationship. It’s a time when the Sun is prone to a flurry of disturbances – strong X-Ray flares, coronal holes and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). These have direct correlations here on Earth: dump Gigawatts of extra solar energy into Earth’s atmosphere and magnetosphere, and you get increased atmospheric and geomagnetic storms, and enhanced seismic activity. 

[...] The current Mercury Max cycle (the third one and final complete one this year) began with Mercury’s maximum eastern elongation on September 4, continues through the September 17 to October 9 retrograde (including the September 30 inferior conjunction with the Sun), and concludes when the little Sun-grazer reaches maximum western elongation on October 15.

Celestial Phenomena Calculator

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

CBOE SKEW Index Hits All-Time High

The CBOE SKEW Index has hit an all-time high, which means the cost of protecting against a major outside event is now at a record.
The CBOE SKEW Index is an index derived from the price of S&P 500 tail risk. Similar to VIX®, the price of S&P 500 tail risk is
calculated from the prices of S&P 500 out-of-the-money options. SKEW typically ranges from 100 to 150. A SKEW value of 100 means
that the perceived distribution of S&P 500 log-returns is normal, and the probability of outlier returns is therefore negligible.
As SKEW rises above 100, the left tail of the S&P 500 distribution acquires more weight, and the probabilities of outlier returns
become more significant. 
Credits: Simon Maierhofer

Global Wealth Distribution

Credit Suisse (Oct 2015) - Just 0.7% of the world's adult population owns almost half of the world's wealth, while the bottom 71%
have less than USD 10,000 each. That poorest two-thirds of the population own a 3% sliver of the world's wealth, and inequality is rising.

Math In The World

Fibonacci Spiral In Human Settlement Patterns.
Ear Elephant

Saturday, October 10, 2015

SPX vs Lunar Cycles

Summary of the Delta Phenomenon HERE

SPX vs AstroMetric Indicator

SPX vs True Lunar Node's Speed

Confucius In The Age of Oligarchy

"Better light a candle
than curse the dark."
One great tradition of anti-oligarchical thinking in world culture stems from the influence of Confucius (551-479 BC). Confucianism can perhaps best be understood as a movement to save Chinese civilization from oligarchical depredations. Confucius starts from a standpoint very much like that of Plato (428-348 BC): the need to secure good government capable of promoting the general welfare. Confucius recognized that most governments in the divided and balkanized China of his time were unacceptable. 

The main political issue was the incessant private warfare of the Zhou dynasty military nobility, which served no useful purpose, but kept the country weak and divided, with no effective central government. According to Confucius, bad government derived from the fact that rulers and high officials lacked the character and qualifications to serve the common good. 

Sun Yat-Sen, Provisional President,
Republic of China (1912), the first
Republic in Asia: "Of the people, by
the people, for the people."
Confucius thought the main reason for this incompetence was the status of the rulers and hereditary aristocrats around them. He regarded most of them as parasites, and wrote in his Analects

“It is difficult to expect anything from men who stuff themselves with food the whole day, while never using their minds in any way at all. Even gamblers do something, and to that degree are better than these idlers.”

Like Plato he argued that government needs to be in the hands of the most capable and competent. Ability has nothing to do with birth, nobility, or wealth, but depends on character and knowledge alone, which in turn are the results of education. Confucius called for careers open to talent, in which appointment and advancement would be based on ability, not on property, hereditary rank and title. Contrary to this, oligarchy represents an irrational principle based on domination and repression, justified neither by merit and ability, nor by the results achieved.

Thursday, October 8, 2015

The Kitchin Cycle

Credits: Larry Edelson
The Kitchin Cycle, discovered in the 1920s by Joseph Kitchin, is a shorter cycle of 40-months related to the inventory cycle of commercial businesses. This cycle is believed to be accounted for by time lags in information movements affecting the decision making of commercial firms. Firms react to the improvement of commercial situation through the increase in output through the full employment of the extent fixed capital assets. As a result, within a certain period of time (ranging between a few months and two years) the market gets ‘flooded’ with commodities whose quantity becomes gradually excessive. 

Credits: UBS (2012)
The demand declines, prices drop, the produced commodities get accumulated in inventories, which informs entrepreneurs of the necessity to reduce output. However, this process takes some time. It takes some time for the information that supply significantly exceeds demand to get to the businesspeople. As it takes entrepreneurs time to check this information and to make the decision to reduce production, time is also necessary to materialize this decision (these are the time lags that generate the Kitchin cycles). Another relevant time lag is the lag between the materialization of the afore mentioned decision (causing the capital assets to work well below the level of their full employment) and the decrease of the excessive amounts of commodities accumulated in inventories. Yet, after this decrease takes place one can observe the conditions for a new phase of growth of demand, prices, output, etc. See also HERE

Emerging Markets of the Future

Credits: The visual Capitalist
By 2050, Nigeria will be the 9th biggest economy in the world when measured by purchasing power parity (PPP). Pakistan will jump to 15th, and countries such as the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Vietnam will make big leaps to help round out the top 25.

The Asia-Pacific region, which currently makes up only 4.8% of the world’s middle-class spending, will balloon to the biggest spender by far in 2030 at 32.6%. For comparison, North America will jump from 5.5% to 5.8% in that same time period.

There is plenty of money to be made as well. Ultra high net worth individuals, defined as people with over $30 million in assets, will soar in these countries in the coming years. For example, in Africa as a whole, the amount of these individuals will grow 59% over the next decade, compared to the average global rate of 34% growth.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Barbault's Cyclic Index and Ganeau's Index of Cyclic Equilibrium | 1700 - 2050

In André Barbault's Cyclic Index better times are at the highs, bad times at the lows. In Claude Ganeau's Index of Cyclic Equilibrium
general mundane circumstances are considered to be better above the zero-line. Periods below the zero-line are generally less favorable
and oftentimes coincide with major military conflicts.
See also HERE + HERE

Monday, October 5, 2015

Claude Ganeau's Index of Cyclic Equilibrium | 1900 - 2100

Calculated with Timing Solution

Inspired by André Barbault's Cyclic Index, back in the 1970s French astrologer Claude Ganeau (1912-1991) developed a method of determining periods on Earth that were positive or negative, and termed this “Index of Cyclic Equilibrium”. Time has always been measured by the Moon’s cycle. This begins with the New Moon, when the Sun and Moon are conjunct. The waxing phase is from the New Moon to the Full Moon, while the waning phase is from the Full Moon to the New Moon. The waxing phase is one of growth and positive vibrations, while the waning phase is one of decay and negative vibrations. Claude Ganeau applied this principle to the ten cycles of the outer planets, from Jupiter to Pluto, and explained:

The stability or instability of the world is directly related to the difference in the sum of the phases of all waxing cycles of the five outer planets, and the sum of the phases of waning cycles of planets. While the resultant figure remains positive, the earth will tend to experience relative stability and a period of evolution; when the resultant figure is negative the earth enters a period of crisis and involution.
He calculated his Index of Cyclic Equilibrium for 1900 to 1999 and found a remarkable correlation with the state of the world in terms of war and peace, prosperity and depression, and several other factors. For example, the index accurately forecasted WWI, WWII, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. It also pinned the Iranian Revolution, the Russian Afghanistan War, the Irak-Iran War, the 1st and the 2nd Gulf Wars, the so called Arab Spring, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine Wars. In 2015 the Index of Cyclic Equilibrium plunges back into negative territory again, and will remain there into 2021. After 2021 the breakdown and collapse of the unipolar world order should be followed by a period of global post-war recovery, growth, prosperity and the establishment of a more beneficial multi-polar international regime anchored on Eurasian powers.

Claude Ganeau's original 'Indice d'Equilibre Cyclique' for the XXth century.
'Indice de Concentration Planétaire' 1485-1983 of Henri-Joseph Gouchon (1898-1978),
André Barbault's and Claude Ganeau's common inspirator.

André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War 1900 - 2100

André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War is a composite of the angular distances between the five outer planets. In mundane
astrology Pluto, Neptune and Uranus are known as ‘Collective Planets’. Their cycles correspond to long-term cultural-historic periods. Saturn
and Jupiter are the social planets which relate to social-political and economic developments.
Calculated with Timing Solution. See also HERE
André Barbault's original Cyclic Index (Indice de concentration planetaire) for the XXth century.

Uranus and Neptune Responsible For Solar Grand Minima and Solar Cycle Modulation?

Solar system dynamics have been postulated as the main solar driver for
many decades. Paul D. Jose (1965) was the first to associate a recurring
solar system pattern of the 4 outer planets (179 years). Jose suggested
this pattern correlates with the modulation of the solar cycle. New
research via this study suggests that over the past 6000 years the 179
year cycle cannot be maintained and is closer to a 172 year cycle which
aligns with the synodic period of Uranus & Neptune (171.44 years).
Geoff J. Sharp (2013) - Detailed solar Angular Momentum (AM) graphs produced from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) DE405 ephemeris display cyclic perturbations that show a very strong correlation with prior solar activity slowdowns. These same AM perturbations also occur simultaneously with known solar path changes about the Solar System Barycentre. The AM perturbations can be measured and quantified allowing analysis of past solar cycle modulations along with the 11,500 year solar proxy records (14C & 10Be). 
The detailed AM information also displays a recurring wave of modulation that aligns very closely with the observed sunspot record since 1650. The AM perturbation and modulation is a direct product of the outer gas giants (Uranus and Neptune). This information gives the opportunity to predict future grand minima along with normal solar cycle strength with some confidence. A proposed mechanical link between solar activity and planetary influence via a discrepancy found in solar/planet AM along with current AM perturbations indicate solar cycle 24 & 25 will be heavily reduced in sunspot activity resembling a similar pattern to solar cycles 5 & 6 during the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830; see also HERE).

The path of the Sun shows the two distinct loops around the
Solar System Barycentre (centre point).
Typical planet positions demonstrating strong Types A & B perturbations.
The Type A example is taken from near the centre of the Sporer Minimum
(1472). Type B events coinciding with less reduction of solar activity
compared with Type A events of similar angle (reverse).

SPX vs P/E Ratios 1900 - 2015

Stock performance has been weak for the past 15 years. If history
is a guide, it's likely to stay weak for at least another 10 years.
Why? Because stocks are still fantastically expensive relative to most
of recorded history. Credits: Business Insider UK
Business Insider UK (Oct 4, 2015) - Over the past century, the market has gone through distinct "bull" and "bear" phases. These last, on average, 10-25 years each. [...] Some people think the latest "bear" phase ended in 2009. They also think we're in the middle of a glorious "bull" phase again. But based on valuation — stock prices relative to the fundamentals of the underlying companies — we unfortunately appear to still be in the middle of the latest "bear" phase. [...] Throughout history, stock prices have loosely gravitated around the "fundamentals" of the underlying companies — namely, earnings. Specifically, stocks have traded in a range of 5X cyclically adjusted earnings (at bear-market lows) to 44X earnings (at the peak of the biggest bull market in history — the one that ended in 2000). The "average" P/E ratio over this period, meanwhile, has been about 15X. When you add P/E ratios to the charts above, you quickly notice a pattern: Sustained bear-market periods have begun when the P/E is very high (~25X+). Sustained bull-market periods, meanwhile, have begun when the P/E is very low (5X to 9X).