"Space-Time Forecasting of Economic Trends" | Muriel and Louis Hasbrouck

The Space-Time Structure, pioneered by the multidisciplinary partnership of Muriel and Louis Hasbrouck, functions as a sophisticated theoretical framework that interprets economic fluctuations through natural wave patterns and solar-electromagnetic forces. Muriel Elizabeth Bruce Hasbrouck (1890-1981), a Canadian scholar of comparative philosophy, intellectually shaped by Walter Russell's cosmogony, and author of the personality study "Pursuit of Destiny," provided the foundational insight into human behavior. 

 

Each 35.8-year cyclic wave from C crest to C crest is divided into 12 periods, covering about 3 years each (2.983 years, 35.796 months, or 1,089.51 days). The C to D period represents uncertainty and fear (as in 1930–1933). D to E brings temporary recovery (as in 1936). F to G is a time of reconstruction wherein psychological factors of the new trend appear (as in 1940–1953). From G, the pull from the peak ahead at C is clearly evident. Minor adjustments at A and B often are misread as threatening a depression (as in 1957 and 1962).

Her 1940 discovery, co-developed with her husband Abraham Louis M. Hasbrouck (1890-1979), established a predictive index for timing radio transmission disturbances—initially tested with Bell Telephone Laboratories—which later expanded to forecast earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, solar flares, and even missile launch failures in the early 1960s. They changed tracks when Louis noticed that many of the dates that Muriel generated coincided with stock market moves. Their scientific rigor was balanced by Louis, a Yale-educated Canadian World War I pilot and World War II officer with a deep background in finance. Having mastered investment at Bonbright and Company before becoming an independent counsel, Louis dedicated himself from 1930 onward to uncovering the natural laws underlying market fluctuations and shifting economic trends.  

 » Economically, it is a WAVE PATTERN of changing trends in collective instinct. «

 

Together, they conceptualized the universe as operating via rhythmic energy waves that constitute a persistent "Field" surrounding Earth. This field is continuously modulated by solar activity, planetary movements, and geomagnetic disturbances, creating a "wave pattern in time" that evokes biological and psychological responses in all living entities. Unlike mechanical or deterministic models, these waves do not repeat in identical cycles; rather, each represents a unique evolutionary progression within natural and human systems. Louis and Muriel Hasbrouck’s Space-Time Forecasting is a long-range economic and market forecasting system based on the premise that future conditions influence the present, rather than markets being driven solely by past data. 

 

The system holds that the Sun is a pulsating electromagnetic source whose energy radiates rhythmically through space, forming a dominant 35.8-year wave with embedded subcycles—most notably a nine-year rhythm divided into building, peak, and declining phases corresponding to economic expansion, inflation, and contraction. Planetary bodies do not cause events directly and are not interpreted symbolically; instead, their electromagnetic fields modulate and channel the solar field, altering the timing and intensity of energy reaching Earth. These interactions generate wave-like disturbances that affect all terrestrial systems, including collective human psychology.

Space-Time Trend Waves represent the changing flow of human energy and motivation at the socio-economic level. Each Wave follows an orderly, recognizable course from one peak of prosperity (C) to the next in about 36 years. Each Wave is divided into 12 interim phases averaging 3 years each, which can be qualitatively evaluated.

 Legend:

C Wave Crest, Prosperity Peak, followed by REVERSAL to D.
D to E Temporary Recovery.
F to G Start of rise toward next peak, with intimations of qualities of the new, incoming trend (as from 1941 to 1953).
G Activation of new trend toward next peak C.
A & B Minor interruptions of upward trend (as in 1957 and 1962).
C Wave Crest, Prosperity Peak.

History shows that during the reversal of trend following each Wave crest (C) new attitudes develop—social, political, and economic. This, as the Space-Time Structure of History reveals, is an important key to the evolution of civilization. Not only history, but modern science today substantiates the application of the Space-Time Structure as a unified field involving a natural linkage between space, time, and human behaviour. A "new hypothesis" in physics declares that such a linkage exists, that the mind of man and the wave properties of the electron are two extremes of the same thing, and that the "wave of the future" can be perceived in the evolutionary structure of the field.

Human behavior, mass sentiment, and markets are treated as electrical systems embedded within this solar-planetary field, making financial markets sensitive indicators of underlying energetic conditions. The Hasbroucks do not predict specific events or prices; they forecast conditions—states of economic pressure, instability, or expansion—analogous to weather forecasting, with events arising only when conditions reach critical thresholds. 

 

Time and space are considered inseparable, and the Space-Time Wave is visualized as a trend-like heartbeat whose expansions, contractions, and inflection points signal systemic transitions such as monetary regime changes. The system is presented as a bridge between electromagnetic field theory and empirical economic pattern recognition, rejecting traditional astrology and claiming validation solely through long-term forecasting consistency rather than short-term speculation.

The 35.8-year Saturn-Neptune cycle exactly matches the crest-to-crest Hasbrouck cycle.

In practical application, the structure identifies predictable cycles—often spanning approximately 35.8 years between peaks—which are further segmented into twelve distinct periods labeled A through G. These phases allow for the identification of critical turning points, such as the 1929 crash or mid-1960s economic shifts, serving as an early warning system for socio-economic disruptions.

 

Despite its predictive nature, the framework rejects fatalism, viewing each wave as a "new adventure" for human advancement rather than an inevitable repetition. By blending elements of physics, psychology, and investment finance, the Space-Time Structure offers a holistic methodology for navigating perpetual change, providing a roadmap for decision-making in finance, policy, and personal strategy.

 

 Muriel and Louis Hasbrouck, 1976.

 

Based on the structure of the 35.8-year Hasbrouck cycle, which spans from one prosperity crest (point C) to the next and is divided into 12 periods of approximately 2.983 years each, the period from early 2026 to around 2037 (around the maximum of solar cycle 26) corresponds to the latter stages of the current cycle commencing at the 2001 crest (around the maximum of solar cycle 23). 

 

 2025 prediction of solar cycles 26 and 27 based on LSTM-FCN.

Drawing from historical analogies (e.g., the 1929–1965 cycle), this timeframe aligns with the transition from reconstruction to the final upward phases leading to the projected 2037 crest. The phases are characterized below in approximate 3- to 5-year segments, reflecting grouped periods with their economic and psychological attributes:

■ 2026–2029 (G to A phase, continuation of upward trend): This segment follows the activation point (G, around 2025), marking the sustained initiation of a new upward economic trajectory. It is characterized by strengthening trends, emerging optimism, and progressive recovery from prior reconstruction, with psychological factors fostering confidence and innovation toward the next peak.
■ 2029 (A, minor interruption): A brief adjustment period interrupting the upward momentum, akin to historical pauses (e.g., 1957). It involves temporary setbacks, increased caution, or minor economic corrections, driven by psychological shifts toward reevaluation without derailing the overall ascent.
■ 2029–2034 (A to B phase, further progression): Building on the prior interruption, this phase entails continued advancement with incremental adjustments. Economic growth resumes with refined strategies, supported by adaptive psychological responses that emphasize stability and gradual expansion amid evolving trends.
■ 2034 (B, second minor interruption): Similar to the first interruption but later in the cycle (e.g., analogous to 1962), this involves another short-term disruption. It features heightened uncertainty or corrective measures, with psychological elements promoting resilience and preparation for the final push.
■ 2034–2037 (B to C phase, final lead to crest): The concluding segment propels toward the prosperity crest (C, around 2037). It is defined by accelerating upward momentum, culminating in peak prosperity, with psychological drivers of enthusiasm and anticipation facilitating robust economic expansion and trend fulfillment.

For real? In Canada, Bhutan, and Zimbabwe? Time will tell.

 

Reference:

Muriel B. and Louis M. Hasbrouck (1967) - Space -Time Forecasting of Economic Trends. 

Louis M. Hasbrouck (1959) - How to Predict Earthquakes.

Institute of CosmoEconomics (1974) - The Hasbrouck Articles.

 

» Magnus Dominus noster, et magna virtus eius et Sapientiae eius non est numerus: 
laudate eum coeli, laudate eum Sol, Luna et Planetae, quocunque sensu ad percipiendum, 
quacunque lingua ad eloquendum Creatorem vestrum utamini: Laudate eum 

Harmoniae coelestes, laudate cum vos Harmoniarum detectarum arbitri. «

 

Great is our Lord and great His virtue and of His wisdom there is no number:
 praise Him, ye heavens, praise Him, ye sun, moon, and planets, use every 
sense for perceiving, every tongue for declaring your Creator. Praise Him, 
ye celestial harmonies, praise Him, ye judges of the harmonies uncovered.

 

Harmony of the World, Johannes Kepler, 1619.   

 

See also: 

Alexander L. Chizhevsky (December 14, 2025) - Mass Excitability during Solar Cycle 25 (2019–2030). 

Vladimir A. Belkin (December 8, 2025) - "Cosmic Cycles of Global Conjuncture" and Outlook into 2035.
Aleksander Valkov (December 7, 2025) - Helioeconomics: Solar Cycles and World Economic Rhythms.

Shuguang Zeng et al. (2025) - Prediction of solar cycles 26 and 27 based on LSTM-FCN. 

Frank Hoogerbeets (2023) - Geometry and Dynamics of the Solar System.

Valentino Straser and Kazunori Miura (2020) - Electric Earthquakes? The case of Hyogo Ken Nambu (Japan).

Larry Berg (1988) - Planetary Harmonics.
John H. Nelson (1974) - Cosmic Patterns: Their Influence on Man and His Communication.

Mass Excitability during Solar Cycle 25 (2019–2030) | Alexander L. Chizhevsky

Solar Cycle 25, which spans from December 2019 to approximately late 2030, exemplifies Alexander L. Chizhevsky's (1897–1964) historiometric  framework. This model, laid out in his 1924 article "The Physical Factors of the Historical Process," links human psychological "excitability" to solar activity over the average 11-year solar cycle: 

"In each century, the universal cycle of historical events is repeated exactly 9 times. Throughout the world history of Mankind, beginning with 500 B.C. and until the present time, in each century I have discovered 9 clearly outlined concentrations of the initial moments of historical events. Thus, it can be considered that each cycle of the general historical, military or social activity of humanity is equal, on average, to 11 years." 

 

 Чижевский Александр Леонидович (1924) - Физические факторы исторического процессa.

 

  NOAA's latest Solar Cycle 25 Sunspot Number Progression Update, December 12, 2025.

 

 

"Figure 1: Percentage ratio of occurrences of historical events to years and periods

of the [11-year solar] cycle. Average output for 500 years (15th –20th centuries)."

Through analysis of over 2,000 major historical events from 500 BCE to 1922 CE across numerous countries, he determined that approximately 80% of significant upheavals—such as wars, revolutions, riots, migrations, and social unrest—occurred during periods of elevated solar activity, particularly the ascending phase and maximum of the sunspot cycle. In contrast, solar minima were associated with relative societal calm and passivity. According to Chizhevsky, each solar cycle divides into four phases: 

 

(I) Minimum Excitability (~3 years, 5% of "historical events" per Figure 1), 

(II) Growth Excitability (~2.5 years, 20% of events), 

(III) Maximum Excitability (~3 years, 60% of events), and 

(IV) Decline Excitability (~2.5 years, 15% of events). 

 

These are harmonized with NOAA's phases of the solar cycle (Minimum ~3 years, Rising ~4 years, Maximum ~3 years, Declining ~7 years) to fit the observed progression, with the smoothed peak at 160.9 sunspot numbers in October 2024. As of December 2025, the cycle is in the "Maximum Excitability" phase amid sustained high activity.

Phase I: Minimum Excitability (December 2019-November 2022): This phase aligns with NOAA's Solar Minimum in December 2019, featuring minimal sunspots and stable magnetic poles, comprising ~5% of "historical events" per Chizhevsky's Figure 1 (see above). It represents societal disunity and cultural focus:

 

"The characteristic features of this period are the following: disunity of human masses, indifference of the human masses to political and military issues, peace-loving mood of the human masses, compliance, tolerance, etc. The appearance of these psychological signs in the historically active human masses in the 1st period of the cycle is usually accompanied by the absence of any desire for any struggle for an idea or right, and therefore entails easy capitulation, surrender, throwing down of arms, flight from the battlefield, etc. 

 

» Absence of any desire for any struggle. «

[...] In the memoirs of contemporaries and in historical studies, this period is noted for its general peace-loving mood, unwillingness to enter into any disputes, the end of most military actions and the triumph of the principle of non-intervention in international and national military-political life. 

 

[...] Here the spiritual activity of Man begins, cultural values are created, pure art and science are placed in the corner of social life, replacing the stormy turmoil of recent days and devaluing with their achievements everything created hastily and precariously. In the period of minimum, humanity strives for calm, rests from the worries of previous years and gathers physical strength for the inevitably approaching new era of [social] unrest."

Phase II: Increasing Excitability (December 2022 – mid-2025): Corresponding to NOAA's Growth/Rising Phase, with escalating sunspots and initial pole shifts, this phase spans ~20% of "historical events" per Figure 1. It signals emerging ideologies and unity:

"Already the beginning of this period in historical studies is characterized by a significantly greater rise in the excitement of human masses than in the preceding period. There is still no unity of the masses of people; only little by little do the parties and groups that had fallen apart during the period of minimal excitability begin to reorganize, leaders are outlined, programs are defined. The power of suggestion manifests itself among the human masses: statesmen, military leaders, orators, the press are regaining their importance. 

 

» Impatience and nervousness of the masses. «

 

Questions, political and military, begin to appear from behind the horizon of public life and gradually become more acute. The tendency to perseverate homogeneous thoughts is noticeable everywhere, filling the mental activity of the human masses. In spite of the will of individuals, the concentration on the same military or political themes, in the presence of, of course, favorable factors, gradually increases; ideas circulating among the human masses begin to dominate. 

 

[...] At the end of the 2nd period, which can gradually assume a stormy character and reveal the impatience and nervousness of the masses of people, we notice one of the most important phenomena of the military-political life of communities, namely: the desire to unite the various nationalities that make up a given community for the purpose of defense or attack, and the merging of various political groups to counter other political groups. 

 

The significance of this period is that it lays the foundation for the further development of historical events during a given cycle in a given human community and, in part, even predetermines their course during the period of maximum excitability."

In October 2023 NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center released a revised prediction for solar activity during Solar

Cycle 25, and concluded that solar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level than previously predicted.

  

Phase III: Maximum Excitability in Solar Cycle 25 (mid-2025 – mid-2028): As of December 2025, Solar Cycle 25 is firmly entrenched in Phase III, the period of Maximum Excitability, which spans mid-2025 to mid-2028. Encompassing NOAA's Solar Maximum, with peak sunspots, flares, and ejections, this phase accounts for ~60% of "historical events" per Figure 1. It drives transformative mass actions. This phase, as delineated by Chizhevsky, represents the apex of solar activity's influence on human behavior, characterized by heightened psychological tension and collective mobilization:

"This is the main stage of development of each cycle, resolving the world-historical problems of humanity and founding new historical epochs. It incites humanity to the greatest follies and the greatest benefactions: it embodies ideas in life by means of the shedding of blood and the clanking of iron. 

 

 » The entire vast area of human madness. «

 

[...] Never does the influence of leaders, military leaders, orators, the press, etc., reach such a tremendous force as during the period of maximum intensity of the sunspot-forming activity of the Sun. During this period, sometimes one well-timed word or one gesture is enough to move entire armies and the masses. 

 

[...] The period of maximum excitability may just be called the period of the emergence of the face of human masses and the sounding of the voice of the people. [...] The masses of people thirst for movement, the troops are restrained with difficulty, the soldiers are inclined to mutiny, and the people — to anarchy. In a word, the excitement increases unusually and the human organism seems to demand a discharge.

 

» The shedding of blood and the clanking of iron. « 

 

[...] The basis of the above is the unanimity of the masses of people, which is especially clearly outlined in this period when resolving any military or political issues. [...] This brings with it various phenomena characteristic of any struggle, and mass movements of people usually undergo abnormal deviations. Sometimes the height of the struggle reveals the entire vast area of human madness, instability and passion. 

 

[...] Thus, the ground is prepared for the solution of questions of a world-historical nature — the ground on which systems of human communities are erected."

 

Chizhevsky describes Phase III as "the main stage of development of each cycle, resolving the world-historical problems of humanity and founding new historical epochs. It incites humanity to the greatest follies and the greatest benefactions: it embodies ideas in life by means of the shedding of blood and the clanking of iron." 

 

He emphasizes that during Phase III, "the mass activity of humanity all over the surface of the Earth, given the presence in human societies of economical, political or military exciting factors, reaches the maximum tension, manifesting itself in psycomotoric pandemics: revolutions, insurrections, expeditions, migrations etc., creating new formations in the existence of separate states and new historical epochs in the life of humanity."
 

» Solution of questions of a world-historical nature. «

Plasma Tornado Erupts on the Sun. 

Russian Academy of Sciences Footage, December 11-12, 2025.

 

Central to Phase III is the amplification of leadership influence and mass unanimity. Chizhevsky notes, "Never does the influence of leaders, military leaders, orators, the press, etc., reach such a tremendous force as during the period of maximum intensity of the sunspot-forming activity of the Sun. During this period, sometimes one well-timed word or one gesture is enough to move entire armies and the masses." 

 

Πόλεμος πάντων μὲν πατήρ ἐστι, πάντων δὲ βασιλεύς, καὶ τοὺς μὲν θεοὺς 

ἔδειξε τοὺς δὲ ἀνθρώπους, τοὺς μὲν δούλους ἐποίησε τοὺς δὲ ἐλευθέρους.

» War is both father and king of all; some he has shown forth as gods 

and others as men, some he has made slaves and others free. «
Heraclitus, also known as "The Dark One" (ὁ Σκοτεινός); 

Fragment DK22B53, ca. 500 BCE.

This fosters "the unanimity of the masses of people, which is especially clearly outlined in this period when resolving any military or political issues," leading to rapid dissemination of movements: "the astonishing speed of the spread of popular uprisings and mass [social] movements in general." However, this surge can devolve into extremes, as "mass movements of people usually undergo abnormal deviations. Sometimes the height of the struggle reveals the entire vast area of human madness, instability and passion. Elemental violence, bitterness, frenzy, thirst for revenge, epidemics of murder, panic, pogroms, devastating raids, desperate battles, mass exterminations, bloodbaths, as well as uprisings, mutinies, coupled with the manifestation of fanaticism and heroism — reach their apogee."

 

Major revolutions align with Solar Maximums, e.g.: 1775–1783 American War of Independence (Cycle 2), 1789 French Revolution (Cycle 3), 1910 Mexican Revolution (Cycle 14), 1906 and 1917 Russian Revolutions (Cycles 14–15), 1959 Cuban Revolution (Cycle 19), 1979 Revolution in Iran and Nicaragua (Cycle 21), Soviet collapse in 1989–91 (Cycle 22), 1998-2001 Revolution in Venezuela (Cycle 23), Arab Spring 2011 (Cycle 24), 2024 MIGA-MAGA Revolution (Cycle 25).

Contemporary events in 2025, amid elevated sunspot activity, resonate with these dynamics. Geopolitically, persistent conflicts such as the NATO-Russia war in Ukraine, the wars in and around Palestine and Sudan exhibit intensified diplomatic pressures for ceasefires, reflecting Chizhevsky's notion of resolving "world-historical problems." The fall of Assad's regime in Syria has spurred migrations and regional realignments, akin to the "migrations etc., creating new formations in the existence of separate states." Escalations in nuclear proliferation, space security, and hybrid warfare underscore the phase's potential for "devastating raids" and "mass exterminations." 

 

Phase IV: Decreasing excitability (mid-2028 – December 2030): This phase matches NOAA's Declining/Falling Phase, with waning sunspots and field preparation for reversal, representing ~15% of events per Figure 1. It fosters resolution and fatigue:

"The period of decline in excitability is, as it were, an echo of the stormy period of struggle and unrest that preceded it, the highest degree of tension of which has already passed, and a general need for calm and peace is felt. If there is a war, its heat gradually dies down, sluggishness is observed in military actions, their tempo slows down. 

 

» The depressive state of the masses. «

 

[...] Leaders, commanders, orators lose those forces that in the preceding period fettered the masses and forced them to obedience. The masses are already subject to suggestion with difficulty. [...] This lack of unanimity in the 4th period of the historiometric cycle can be called a stumbling block on which any newly-begun uprising, any mass activity risks being wrecked, since concentrated action, due to the reduction and relaxation of the connecting forces, becomes impossible. 

 

[...] Finally, the general decline in excitability is replaced by a psycho-physical state that can be called enervation. Popular assemblies and representations are dispersed without protest, uprisings are easily suppressed, wars do not flare up, and also peace negotiations are mechanically caused by the depressive state of the masses of people, which is often facilitated by physical exhaustion and fatigue."

 

Regarding the economic and financial realm during the remainder of Solar Cycle 25 into around 2030, Helioeconomist Aleksander Valkov recently put forth the following forecast: Given that Solar Cycle 25 reached a stronger-than-expected maximum around 2024–2025, his HELI index indicates that the current global economic expansion has already peaked or is in its final stage. The model forecasts an accelerating contraction phase leading into a major multicycle trough centered on the early 2030s—precisely the period when the next solar minimum is expected. Leonty Miroshnichenko's findings support Valkov's correlation:  "On average, the difference between the peaks and troughs of solar activity and economic cycles does not exceed six months." Furthermore, historical analysis shows that 88% of recessions since the 1800s and 100% of major financial crises occurred during the downturn of sunspot cycles.

 

 Reference:

 Alexander L. Chizhevsky (1924) - The Physical Factors of the Historical Process.

(Чижевский Александр Леонидович (1924) - Физические факторы исторического процессa.)

Suitbert Ertel (1996) - Space Weather and Revolutions - Chizhevsky's Heliobiological Claim Scrutinized.  

Kemalhan Gerçeker et al. (November 26, 2025) - Simplex Projection Predictions of the Remainder of Solar Cycle 25. 

 NOAA (2025) - Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression.

"Cosmic Cycles of Global Conjuncture" & Outlook into 2035 | Vladimir A. Belkin

Vladimir Belkin's 2014 study "Cosmic Cycles of Global Conjuncture" (КОСМИЧЕСКИЕ ЦИКЛЫ МИРОВОЙ КОНЪЮНКТУРЫ) synthesized the interconnections between solar activity cycles and global economic fluctuations. Belkin posited a robust inverse relationship between peaks in solar activity—measured via Wolf sunspot numbers—and subsequent declines in world output and US GDP growth, drawing on the fields of Heliobiology and Helioeconomics. Employing correlation and lagged regression analyses over extended historical periods, he demonstrated cyclical alignments with Juglar (7–11 years) and Kitchin (3–5 years) business cycles to forecast economic deterioration in 2014–2015.

Chart 1 above ("Kitchin and Juglar cycles of world output as a function of solar activity, 1961–2013.") illustrates Kitchin and Juglar cycles in world output (1961–2013) against lagged solar activity. Dual axes show Wolf numbers (left, solid line) peaking inversely to output growth (right, dashed line, one-year lag), with visual mirroring and R² ≈ 0.99 in segments, confirming short-term solar-driven volatility.

Extending this, chart 2 ("Kitchin and Juglar cycles in US GDP as a function of solar activity, 1798–2013.") applies the same to US GDP (1798–2013), demonstrating remarkable persistence over two centuries. The inverse pattern—solar peaks followed by GDP troughs—spans industrial revolutions and institutional changes, with a correlation of –0.88, underscoring the robustness of heliobiological influences on economic history.

Chart 3 ("Strong inverse relationship between cycles of world output and cycles of solar activity.") depicts the strong inverse between normalized world output cycles and solar activity (1961–2013 extended), with Wolf numbers (solid) and lagged growth index (dashed) as near-mirror images. A correlation of –0.87 highlights how solar rises precipitate growth falls, validating Belkin's claim of solar activity as a primary cycle determinant.

Focusing on extrema, chart 4 ("Strong inverse relationship between monthly extremes in Wolf numbers and annual world-output growth with a one-year lag.") presents a scatter plot of monthly Wolf peaks (x-axis) against annual world growth one year later (y-axis, 1964–2009), with a downward-sloping regression (R² = 0.7597). Higher solar maxima predict deeper slowdowns, offering a precise metric for crisis intensity.

Chart 5 ("Strong inverse relationship between the long cycle of world output and the long cycle of monthly solar-activity maxima.") addresses long cycles, plotting world output growth around solar maxima years (1968–2000, black line) against average Wolf numbers. A stepwise decline in growth per successive maximum (correlation –0.85) reveals secular trends, where weakening solar cycles since 1968 coincide with diminishing global expansions.

Complementing the above charts, Table 1 quantifies post-maxima declines: for solar peaks in 1968, 1979, 1989, and 2000, world growth fell by –2.90%, –2.01%, –2.42%, and –2.19% within two years, respectively. Belkin projected –2.38% for 2013 (delayed Cycle 24), forecasting a 2014–2015 downturn to ~2.0% growth, aligning with emerging-market vulnerabilities.

Collectively, this substantiates high statistical significance, with lags explaining physiological delays (e.g., geomagnetic storms reducing blood flow by 32–40%, fostering pessimism). Methodologically, Belkin employed:

• Lagged correlation analysis: Economic growth is regressed against solar activity with a one-year lag, reflecting delayed physiological impacts (e.g., solar maxima precede growth troughs). 
• Cycle decomposition: Juglar and Kitchin cycles are isolated via smoothing and differencing, then overlaid on solar series to visualize inversions.
• Regression modeling: Scatter plots with fitted lines quantify relationships, reporting R² and correlation coefficients (e.g., –0.87 to –0.88 overall).
• Forecasting via extrapolation: Historical patterns inform projections, adjusted for NASA solar forecasts (e.g., delayed Cycle 24 peak in 2013–2014).

Applying Belkin’s methodology to current solar forecasts yields the following calibrated projections for 2025–2035:

• 2025–2026: Cycle 25’s prolonged maximum (SSN peak 160.8 in Oct 2024, extending to mid-2025) signals imminent slowdown via the lagged inverse correlation (r ≈ –0.87; chart 3); expect global GDP deceleration of 2.0–2.5% from 2024 levels to 1.5–2.0%, mirroring Table 1’s –2.38% post-peak drop, with initial geomagnetic volatility worsening emerging-market risks (as in Belkin’s 2013–2014 forecast).
• 2027–2030: Cycle 25 minimum (2029–2030) reverses the trend, producing upswings similar to post-minimum recoveries (charts 1 and 2); secular weakening (chart 5) moderates amplitude, but growth should accelerate to 3.5–4.5% by 2029, driven by solar quiescence and reduced crisis propensity.
• 2031–2035: Cycle 26 onset (2029–2032 start, moderate SSN max ~131–160 ca. 2040–2043) brings rising solar activity that erodes gains per the inverse linkage (chart 4, R² = 0.76), yielding 1–2% cumulative drag by 2035 and possible mild recession if the cycle exceeds forecasts; overall 2025–2035 average growth 2.5–3.0% (chart 5 declining envelope), contingent on astrophysical accuracy.

Solar-timing uncertainties (e.g., exact Cycle 26 start) require integration with endogenous models, and post-2025 validation will refine accuracy.

Reference:
Vladimir A. Belkin (2014) - Cosmic Cycles of Global Conjuncture.
(КОСМИЧЕСКИЕ ЦИКЛЫ МИРОВОЙ КОНЪЮНКТУРЫ).

Vladimir A. Belkin holds a Doctorate in Economic Sciences and is a leading research scientist at the Chelyabinsk Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Professor of Economics, Finance, and Accounting at the Chelyabinsk Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Renowned for pioneering helioeconomics, his extensive publications—over 90 since 2008—explore inverse correlations between solar activity cycles and global economic fluctuations, with recent works (up to 2025) analyzing GDP growth, US federal fund rates, and commodity prices.

See also:

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024)  - Economic Crises and Solar Activity Extrema: Calculation of the Fall in the World GDP Growth in 2025. 

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - Strong Inverse Correlation between Ap Index and Gold Price. 

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - 2025-2027 Oil Price Decline Linked to Solar Cycle Activity.   

Aleksander Valkov (2025) - Helioeconomics: Solar Cycles as the Hidden Pacemaker of Global Economic Fluctuations.

Leonty Miroshnichenko (2023) - Kondratiev Waves Aligned with Solar Cycles.  

Tatiana Alexandrovna Zenchenko & Tamara Konstantinovna Breus (2021) - The Possible Effect of Space Weather Factors on Various Physiological Systems of the Human Organism.

A 2020 first-light video from the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope captures solar granulation at unprecedented 30 km resolution in 705 nm light, revealing convection cells approximately the size of Texas, where hot plasma rises in bright centers and sinks along dark intergranular lanes, driving surface heat transfer while tiny magnetic bright points channel energy to the million-degree corona. Amid Solar Cycle 25's heightened activity—having peaked in late 2024 with elevated sunspot numbers exceeding initial forecasts—such high-resolution observations continue to refine models of solar flares and space weather impacts.