"Space-Time Forecasting of Economic Trends" | Muriel and Louis Hasbrouck

The Space-Time Structure, pioneered by the multidisciplinary partnership of Muriel and Louis Hasbrouck, functions as a sophisticated theoretical framework that interprets economic fluctuations through natural wave patterns and solar-electromagnetic forces. Muriel Elizabeth Bruce Hasbrouck (1890-1981), a Canadian scholar of comparative philosophy, intellectually shaped by Walter Russell's cosmogony, and author of the personality study "Pursuit of Destiny," provided the foundational insight into human behavior. 

 

Each 35.8-year cyclic wave from C crest to C crest is divided into 12 periods, covering about 3 years each (2.983 years, 35.796 months, or 1,089.51 days). The C to D period represents uncertainty and fear (as in 1930–1933). D to E brings temporary recovery (as in 1936). F to G is a time of reconstruction wherein psychological factors of the new trend appear (as in 1940–1953). From G, the pull from the peak ahead at C is clearly evident. Minor adjustments at A and B often are misread as threatening a depression (as in 1957 and 1962).

Her 1940 discovery, co-developed with her husband Abraham Louis M. Hasbrouck (1890-1979), established a predictive index for timing radio transmission disturbances—initially tested with Bell Telephone Laboratories—which later expanded to forecast earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, solar flares, and even missile launch failures in the early 1960s. They changed tracks when Louis noticed that many of the dates that Muriel generated coincided with stock market moves. Their scientific rigor was balanced by Louis, a Yale-educated Canadian World War I pilot and World War II officer with a deep background in finance. Having mastered investment at Bonbright and Company before becoming an independent counsel, Louis dedicated himself from 1930 onward to uncovering the natural laws underlying market fluctuations and shifting economic trends.  

 » Economically, it is a WAVE PATTERN of changing trends in collective instinct. «

 

Together, they conceptualized the universe as operating via rhythmic energy waves that constitute a persistent "Field" surrounding Earth. This field is continuously modulated by solar activity, planetary movements, and geomagnetic disturbances, creating a "wave pattern in time" that evokes biological and psychological responses in all living entities. Unlike mechanical or deterministic models, these waves do not repeat in identical cycles; rather, each represents a unique evolutionary progression within natural and human systems. Louis and Muriel Hasbrouck’s Space-Time Forecasting is a long-range economic and market forecasting system based on the premise that future conditions influence the present, rather than markets being driven solely by past data. 

 

The system holds that the Sun is a pulsating electromagnetic source whose energy radiates rhythmically through space, forming a dominant 35.8-year wave with embedded subcycles—most notably a nine-year rhythm divided into building, peak, and declining phases corresponding to economic expansion, inflation, and contraction. Planetary bodies do not cause events directly and are not interpreted symbolically; instead, their electromagnetic fields modulate and channel the solar field, altering the timing and intensity of energy reaching Earth. These interactions generate wave-like disturbances that affect all terrestrial systems, including collective human psychology.

Space-Time Trend Waves represent the changing flow of human energy and motivation at the socio-economic level. Each Wave follows an orderly, recognizable course from one peak of prosperity (C) to the next in about 36 years. Each Wave is divided into 12 interim phases averaging 3 years each, which can be qualitatively evaluated.

 Legend:

C Wave Crest, Prosperity Peak, followed by REVERSAL to D.
D to E Temporary Recovery.
F to G Start of rise toward next peak, with intimations of qualities of the new, incoming trend (as from 1941 to 1953).
G Activation of new trend toward next peak C.
A & B Minor interruptions of upward trend (as in 1957 and 1962).
C Wave Crest, Prosperity Peak.

History shows that during the reversal of trend following each Wave crest (C) new attitudes develop—social, political, and economic. This, as the Space-Time Structure of History reveals, is an important key to the evolution of civilization. Not only history, but modern science today substantiates the application of the Space-Time Structure as a unified field involving a natural linkage between space, time, and human behaviour. A "new hypothesis" in physics declares that such a linkage exists, that the mind of man and the wave properties of the electron are two extremes of the same thing, and that the "wave of the future" can be perceived in the evolutionary structure of the field.

Human behavior, mass sentiment, and markets are treated as electrical systems embedded within this solar-planetary field, making financial markets sensitive indicators of underlying energetic conditions. The Hasbroucks do not predict specific events or prices; they forecast conditions—states of economic pressure, instability, or expansion—analogous to weather forecasting, with events arising only when conditions reach critical thresholds. 

 

Time and space are considered inseparable, and the Space-Time Wave is visualized as a trend-like heartbeat whose expansions, contractions, and inflection points signal systemic transitions such as monetary regime changes. The system is presented as a bridge between electromagnetic field theory and empirical economic pattern recognition, rejecting traditional astrology and claiming validation solely through long-term forecasting consistency rather than short-term speculation.

The 35.8-year Saturn-Neptune cycle exactly matches the crest-to-crest Hasbrouck cycle.

In practical application, the structure identifies predictable cycles—often spanning approximately 35.8 years between peaks—which are further segmented into twelve distinct periods labeled A through G. These phases allow for the identification of critical turning points, such as the 1929 crash or mid-1960s economic shifts, serving as an early warning system for socio-economic disruptions.

 

Despite its predictive nature, the framework rejects fatalism, viewing each wave as a "new adventure" for human advancement rather than an inevitable repetition. By blending elements of physics, psychology, and investment finance, the Space-Time Structure offers a holistic methodology for navigating perpetual change, providing a roadmap for decision-making in finance, policy, and personal strategy.

 

 Muriel and Louis Hasbrouck, 1976.

 

Based on the structure of the 35.8-year Hasbrouck cycle, which spans from one prosperity crest (point C) to the next and is divided into 12 periods of approximately 2.983 years each, the period from early 2026 to around 2037 (around the maximum of solar cycle 26) corresponds to the latter stages of the current cycle commencing at the 2001 crest (around the maximum of solar cycle 23). 

 

 2025 prediction of solar cycles 26 and 27 based on LSTM-FCN.

Drawing from historical analogies (e.g., the 1929–1965 cycle), this timeframe aligns with the transition from reconstruction to the final upward phases leading to the projected 2037 crest. The phases are characterized below in approximate 3- to 5-year segments, reflecting grouped periods with their economic and psychological attributes:

■ 2026–2029 (G to A phase, continuation of upward trend): This segment follows the activation point (G, around 2025), marking the sustained initiation of a new upward economic trajectory. It is characterized by strengthening trends, emerging optimism, and progressive recovery from prior reconstruction, with psychological factors fostering confidence and innovation toward the next peak.
■ 2029 (A, minor interruption): A brief adjustment period interrupting the upward momentum, akin to historical pauses (e.g., 1957). It involves temporary setbacks, increased caution, or minor economic corrections, driven by psychological shifts toward reevaluation without derailing the overall ascent.
■ 2029–2034 (A to B phase, further progression): Building on the prior interruption, this phase entails continued advancement with incremental adjustments. Economic growth resumes with refined strategies, supported by adaptive psychological responses that emphasize stability and gradual expansion amid evolving trends.
■ 2034 (B, second minor interruption): Similar to the first interruption but later in the cycle (e.g., analogous to 1962), this involves another short-term disruption. It features heightened uncertainty or corrective measures, with psychological elements promoting resilience and preparation for the final push.
■ 2034–2037 (B to C phase, final lead to crest): The concluding segment propels toward the prosperity crest (C, around 2037). It is defined by accelerating upward momentum, culminating in peak prosperity, with psychological drivers of enthusiasm and anticipation facilitating robust economic expansion and trend fulfillment.

For real? In Canada, Bhutan, and Zimbabwe? Time will tell.

 

Reference:

Muriel B. and Louis M. Hasbrouck (1967) - Space -Time Forecasting of Economic Trends. 

Louis M. Hasbrouck (1959) - How to Predict Earthquakes.

Institute of CosmoEconomics (1974) - The Hasbrouck Articles.

 

» Magnus Dominus noster, et magna virtus eius et Sapientiae eius non est numerus: 
laudate eum coeli, laudate eum Sol, Luna et Planetae, quocunque sensu ad percipiendum, 
quacunque lingua ad eloquendum Creatorem vestrum utamini: Laudate eum 

Harmoniae coelestes, laudate cum vos Harmoniarum detectarum arbitri. «

 

Great is our Lord and great His virtue and of His wisdom there is no number:
 praise Him, ye heavens, praise Him, ye sun, moon, and planets, use every 
sense for perceiving, every tongue for declaring your Creator. Praise Him, 
ye celestial harmonies, praise Him, ye judges of the harmonies uncovered.

 

Harmony of the World, Johannes Kepler, 1619.   

 

See also: 

Alexander L. Chizhevsky (December 14, 2025) - Mass Excitability during Solar Cycle 25 (2019–2030). 

Vladimir A. Belkin (December 8, 2025) - "Cosmic Cycles of Global Conjuncture" and Outlook into 2035.
Aleksander Valkov (December 7, 2025) - Helioeconomics: Solar Cycles and World Economic Rhythms.

Shuguang Zeng et al. (2025) - Prediction of solar cycles 26 and 27 based on LSTM-FCN. 

Frank Hoogerbeets (2023) - Geometry and Dynamics of the Solar System.

Valentino Straser and Kazunori Miura (2020) - Electric Earthquakes? The case of Hyogo Ken Nambu (Japan).

Larry Berg (1988) - Planetary Harmonics.
John H. Nelson (1974) - Cosmic Patterns: Their Influence on Man and His Communication.

Pythagorean Harmonics in Multi-Millennial Solar Activity | Theodor Landscheidt

One of the first interdisciplinary approaches to a holistic understanding of our world was that of Pythagoras and his disciples. They created the theory of the fundamental significance of numbers in the objective world and in music. This theory reduced all existence to number, meaning that all entities are ultimately reducible to numerical relationships that link not only mathematics to music but also to acoustics, geometry, and astronomy. Even the dependence of the dynamics of world structure on the interaction of pairs of opposites—of which the even–odd polarity essential to numbers is primary—emerges from these numerical relationships. Pythagoras would have been pleased to learn of attractors opposing in character, created by simple feedback loops of numbers, and forming tenuous boundaries—dynamic sites of instability and creativity.

Pythagoras exploring harmony and ratio with various musical

instruments; Franchinus Gaffurius, Theorica musicae, 1492.

Pythagorean thinking deeply influenced the development of classical Greek philosophy and medieval European thought, especially the astrological belief that the planetary harmony of the universe affects everything, including terrestrial affairs, through space–time configurations of cosmic bodies. People were intrigued by the precision of numerical relationships between musical harmonies, which deeply touch the human soul, and the prosaic arithmetical ratios of integers. This connection was first demonstrated by Pythagoras himself in the sixth century B.C. In his famous experiment, a stretched string on a monochord was divided by simple arithmetical ratios—1:2, 2:3, 3:4, 4:5, and 5:6—and plucked. It was a Eureka moment when he discovered that these respective partitions of the string create the consonant intervals of harmony.

 

One tone is not yet music. One might say it is only a promise of music. The promise is fulfilled, and music comes into being, only when one tone follows another. Strictly speaking, therefore, the basic elements of music are not individual tones but the movements between tones. Each of these movements spans a certain pitch distance. The pitch distance between two tones is called an interval. It is the basic element of melody and of individual musical motion. Melody is a succession of intervals rather than of tones. Intervals can be consonant or dissonant.

 

[ Nodes of a vibrating string are harmonics. Conversely, antinodes

—points of maximum amplitude—occur midway between nodes. ]

 

It was Pythagoras’ great discovery to see that the ratios of the first small integers up to six give rise to consonant intervals; the smaller these integers, the more complete the resonance. A string divided in the ratio 1:2 yields the octave (C–C), an equisonance of the fundamental tone. The ratio 2:3 yields the fifth (C–G); 3:4 the fourth (C–F); 4:5 the major third (C–E); and 5:6 the minor third. These correspond to the consonant intervals of octave, fifth, fourth, major third, minor third, and the sixth. The pairs of notes given in brackets are examples of the respective consonances.

 

The minor sixth, created by the ratio 5:8, seems to go beyond the limit of six. Yet eight—the only integer greater than six involved here—is the third power of two and thus a member of the series of consonant numbers. Eight is created by an octave operation, which produces absolutely equisonant tones. All authorities agree that, besides the equisonant octave, there are no consonant intervals other than the third, the fourth, the fifth, and the sixth. If more than two notes are to be consonant, each pair of them must also be consonant.

 

As mentioned already, the most complete consonance within the range of an octave is the major perfect chord C–E–G (4:5:6), which unites the major third and the fifth with the fundamental note. These concepts of harmony and consonant intervals are formed by the first terms in the series of overtones, or harmonics, produced by a vibrating string. [...] Whenever there is a musical sound, there is an addition of harmonics that relate the fundamental tone to an infinity of overtones, which influence the quality of the consonant fundamental. The overtones up to the sixth harmonic represent the consonant intervals: the octave, the fifth, the fourth, the major third, the minor third, and the sixth.

Figure 19: Smoothed time series of consecutive impulses of the torque (IOT), with epochs indicated by dots. The resulting wave pattern corresponds to the secular cycle of sunspot activity. The average wavelength is 166 years, with each extremum occurring at mean intervals of 83 years, aligned with a maximum in the secular sunspot cycle. These maxima, as identified by Wolfgang Gleissberg, are marked by bold arrows. Minima occur when the wave approaches zero. This wave pattern reflects the influence of solar system configurations that generate impulses of the torque.

Figure 34 shows the combination of the consonant intervals known as the major sixth (3:5) and the minor sixth (5:8) as they emerge in solar-system processes over thousands of years. These intervals are marked by vertical triangles and large numbers. The curve depicts the supersecular variation of energy in the secular torque wave, part of which was shown in points along the curve represent epochs of extrema, labeled by Aₛ numbers from −64 to +28, corresponding to the period from 5259 BC to AD 2347. The mean cycle length is 391 years. Black triangles indicate maxima in the corresponding supersecular sunspot cycle, while open triangles indicate minima. When the energy exceeds certain quantitative thresholds, shown by hatched horizontal lines, a phase jump occurs in the correlated supersecular sunspot cycle. These critical phases are marked by vertical dotted lines. A new phase jump is expected around 2030.

It points toward a supersecular minimum comparable to the Egyptian minimum (E) around 1369 BC, a prolonged period marked by notable cooling and glacier advance. The ratio 3:5:8, representing the major and minor sixth, marks the intervals that separate these rare phase jumps indicated by the vertical dotted lines. The 317.7-year period of the triple conjunction of Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus is also involved in this relationship, as shown by the small numbers beneath the large numbers at the top of the figure.

[...] Another confirmation of the hypothesis that consonant intervals play an important role with respect to the Sun's eruptional activity are the connections presented in Figure 34 that cover thousands of years. It has been shown in Figure 19 that consecutive impulses of the torque (IOT) in the Sun’s motion about the center of mass (CM) of the solar system, when taken to constitute a smoothed time series, form a wave-pattern the positive and negative extrema (±As​) of which coincide with maxima in the secular sunspot cycle. This Gleissberg cycle, with a mean period of 83 years, which modulates the intensity of the 11-year sunspot cycle, is in turn modulated by a supersecular sunspot cycle with a mean period of about 400 years. The Maunder Minimum of sunspot activity in the 17th century and a supersecular maximum in the 12th century are features of this supersecular cycle. It seems to be related to the energy in the secular wave presented in Figure 19.

This energy may be measured by squared values of the secular extrema ±As​. When these values are taken to form another smoothed time series, a supersecular wave emerges as plotted in Figure 34. It runs parallel with the supersecular sunspot cycle. Its mean period is 391 years, but it varies from 166 to 665 years. Each dot in the plot indicates the epoch of a secular extremum (±As​). These epochs are numbered from -64 to +28 and range from 5259 B.C. to 2347 A.D. Black triangles indicate maxima in the correlated supersecular sunspot curve and white triangles minima. The medieval maximum, which was together a climate optimum (O), the Spoerer Minimum (S), and the Maunder Minimum (M) are marked by respective abbreviations. The extrema in the supersecular wave properly reflect all marked peaks and troughs in the supersecular sunspot curve derived from radiocarbon data.
 

Quoted from:
Theodor Landscheidt (1989) - Sun-Earth-Man: A Mesh of Cosmic Oscillations.

 

Angular Momentum and Past/Future Solar Activity, 1600-2200: JUP-NEP resonance of 22.13y mirrors Sun’s 22y magnetic cycle. JUP-NEP squares to solar equator align with 11y solar minima; sub-harmonics like JUP-URA-NEP at 11.09y track sunspot fluctuations. Centuries of data show minimal drift (0.6 ±1.5y), suggesting planetary periods act as solar activity pacemakers. 

  

See also:

Geoff J. Sharp (2013) - Are Uranus and Neptune Responsible for Solar Grand Minima and Solar Cycle Modulation? 
Nicola Scafetta (2012) - Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle.

Joachim-Ernst Berendt (1987) - The "Law of the Octave": The World Is Sound.

Mass Excitability during Solar Cycle 25 (2019–2030) | Alexander L. Chizhevsky

Solar Cycle 25, which spans from December 2019 to approximately late 2030, exemplifies Alexander L. Chizhevsky's (1897–1964) historiometric  framework. This model, laid out in his 1924 article "The Physical Factors of the Historical Process," links human psychological "excitability" to solar activity over the average 11-year solar cycle: 

"In each century, the universal cycle of historical events is repeated exactly 9 times. Throughout the world history of Mankind, beginning with 500 B.C. and until the present time, in each century I have discovered 9 clearly outlined concentrations of the initial moments of historical events. Thus, it can be considered that each cycle of the general historical, military or social activity of humanity is equal, on average, to 11 years." 

 

 Чижевский Александр Леонидович (1924) - Физические факторы исторического процессa.

 

  NOAA's latest Solar Cycle 25 Sunspot Number Progression Update, December 12, 2025.

 

 

"Figure 1: Percentage ratio of occurrences of historical events to years and periods

of the [11-year solar] cycle. Average output for 500 years (15th –20th centuries)."

Through analysis of over 2,000 major historical events from 500 BCE to 1922 CE across numerous countries, he determined that approximately 80% of significant upheavals—such as wars, revolutions, riots, migrations, and social unrest—occurred during periods of elevated solar activity, particularly the ascending phase and maximum of the sunspot cycle. In contrast, solar minima were associated with relative societal calm and passivity. According to Chizhevsky, each solar cycle divides into four phases: 

 

(I) Minimum Excitability (~3 years, 5% of "historical events" per Figure 1), 

(II) Growth Excitability (~2.5 years, 20% of events), 

(III) Maximum Excitability (~3 years, 60% of events), and 

(IV) Decline Excitability (~2.5 years, 15% of events). 

 

These are harmonized with NOAA's phases of the solar cycle (Minimum ~3 years, Rising ~4 years, Maximum ~3 years, Declining ~7 years) to fit the observed progression, with the smoothed peak at 160.9 sunspot numbers in October 2024. As of December 2025, the cycle is in the "Maximum Excitability" phase amid sustained high activity.

Phase I: Minimum Excitability (December 2019-November 2022): This phase aligns with NOAA's Solar Minimum in December 2019, featuring minimal sunspots and stable magnetic poles, comprising ~5% of "historical events" per Chizhevsky's Figure 1 (see above). It represents societal disunity and cultural focus:

 

"The characteristic features of this period are the following: disunity of human masses, indifference of the human masses to political and military issues, peace-loving mood of the human masses, compliance, tolerance, etc. The appearance of these psychological signs in the historically active human masses in the 1st period of the cycle is usually accompanied by the absence of any desire for any struggle for an idea or right, and therefore entails easy capitulation, surrender, throwing down of arms, flight from the battlefield, etc. 

 

» Absence of any desire for any struggle. «

[...] In the memoirs of contemporaries and in historical studies, this period is noted for its general peace-loving mood, unwillingness to enter into any disputes, the end of most military actions and the triumph of the principle of non-intervention in international and national military-political life. 

 

[...] Here the spiritual activity of Man begins, cultural values are created, pure art and science are placed in the corner of social life, replacing the stormy turmoil of recent days and devaluing with their achievements everything created hastily and precariously. In the period of minimum, humanity strives for calm, rests from the worries of previous years and gathers physical strength for the inevitably approaching new era of [social] unrest."

Phase II: Increasing Excitability (December 2022 – mid-2025): Corresponding to NOAA's Growth/Rising Phase, with escalating sunspots and initial pole shifts, this phase spans ~20% of "historical events" per Figure 1. It signals emerging ideologies and unity:

"Already the beginning of this period in historical studies is characterized by a significantly greater rise in the excitement of human masses than in the preceding period. There is still no unity of the masses of people; only little by little do the parties and groups that had fallen apart during the period of minimal excitability begin to reorganize, leaders are outlined, programs are defined. The power of suggestion manifests itself among the human masses: statesmen, military leaders, orators, the press are regaining their importance. 

 

» Impatience and nervousness of the masses. «

 

Questions, political and military, begin to appear from behind the horizon of public life and gradually become more acute. The tendency to perseverate homogeneous thoughts is noticeable everywhere, filling the mental activity of the human masses. In spite of the will of individuals, the concentration on the same military or political themes, in the presence of, of course, favorable factors, gradually increases; ideas circulating among the human masses begin to dominate. 

 

[...] At the end of the 2nd period, which can gradually assume a stormy character and reveal the impatience and nervousness of the masses of people, we notice one of the most important phenomena of the military-political life of communities, namely: the desire to unite the various nationalities that make up a given community for the purpose of defense or attack, and the merging of various political groups to counter other political groups. 

 

The significance of this period is that it lays the foundation for the further development of historical events during a given cycle in a given human community and, in part, even predetermines their course during the period of maximum excitability."

In October 2023 NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center released a revised prediction for solar activity during Solar

Cycle 25, and concluded that solar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level than previously predicted.

  

Phase III: Maximum Excitability in Solar Cycle 25 (mid-2025 – mid-2028): As of December 2025, Solar Cycle 25 is firmly entrenched in Phase III, the period of Maximum Excitability, which spans mid-2025 to mid-2028. Encompassing NOAA's Solar Maximum, with peak sunspots, flares, and ejections, this phase accounts for ~60% of "historical events" per Figure 1. It drives transformative mass actions. This phase, as delineated by Chizhevsky, represents the apex of solar activity's influence on human behavior, characterized by heightened psychological tension and collective mobilization:

"This is the main stage of development of each cycle, resolving the world-historical problems of humanity and founding new historical epochs. It incites humanity to the greatest follies and the greatest benefactions: it embodies ideas in life by means of the shedding of blood and the clanking of iron. 

 

 » The entire vast area of human madness. «

 

[...] Never does the influence of leaders, military leaders, orators, the press, etc., reach such a tremendous force as during the period of maximum intensity of the sunspot-forming activity of the Sun. During this period, sometimes one well-timed word or one gesture is enough to move entire armies and the masses. 

 

[...] The period of maximum excitability may just be called the period of the emergence of the face of human masses and the sounding of the voice of the people. [...] The masses of people thirst for movement, the troops are restrained with difficulty, the soldiers are inclined to mutiny, and the people — to anarchy. In a word, the excitement increases unusually and the human organism seems to demand a discharge.

 

» The shedding of blood and the clanking of iron. « 

 

[...] The basis of the above is the unanimity of the masses of people, which is especially clearly outlined in this period when resolving any military or political issues. [...] This brings with it various phenomena characteristic of any struggle, and mass movements of people usually undergo abnormal deviations. Sometimes the height of the struggle reveals the entire vast area of human madness, instability and passion. 

 

[...] Thus, the ground is prepared for the solution of questions of a world-historical nature — the ground on which systems of human communities are erected."

 

Chizhevsky describes Phase III as "the main stage of development of each cycle, resolving the world-historical problems of humanity and founding new historical epochs. It incites humanity to the greatest follies and the greatest benefactions: it embodies ideas in life by means of the shedding of blood and the clanking of iron." 

 

He emphasizes that during Phase III, "the mass activity of humanity all over the surface of the Earth, given the presence in human societies of economical, political or military exciting factors, reaches the maximum tension, manifesting itself in psycomotoric pandemics: revolutions, insurrections, expeditions, migrations etc., creating new formations in the existence of separate states and new historical epochs in the life of humanity."
 

» Solution of questions of a world-historical nature. «

Plasma Tornado Erupts on the Sun. 

Russian Academy of Sciences Footage, December 11-12, 2025.

 

Central to Phase III is the amplification of leadership influence and mass unanimity. Chizhevsky notes, "Never does the influence of leaders, military leaders, orators, the press, etc., reach such a tremendous force as during the period of maximum intensity of the sunspot-forming activity of the Sun. During this period, sometimes one well-timed word or one gesture is enough to move entire armies and the masses." 

 

Πόλεμος πάντων μὲν πατήρ ἐστι, πάντων δὲ βασιλεύς, καὶ τοὺς μὲν θεοὺς 

ἔδειξε τοὺς δὲ ἀνθρώπους, τοὺς μὲν δούλους ἐποίησε τοὺς δὲ ἐλευθέρους.

» War is both father and king of all; some he has shown forth as gods 

and others as men, some he has made slaves and others free. «
Heraclitus, also known as "The Dark One" (ὁ Σκοτεινός); 

Fragment DK22B53, ca. 500 BCE.

This fosters "the unanimity of the masses of people, which is especially clearly outlined in this period when resolving any military or political issues," leading to rapid dissemination of movements: "the astonishing speed of the spread of popular uprisings and mass [social] movements in general." However, this surge can devolve into extremes, as "mass movements of people usually undergo abnormal deviations. Sometimes the height of the struggle reveals the entire vast area of human madness, instability and passion. Elemental violence, bitterness, frenzy, thirst for revenge, epidemics of murder, panic, pogroms, devastating raids, desperate battles, mass exterminations, bloodbaths, as well as uprisings, mutinies, coupled with the manifestation of fanaticism and heroism — reach their apogee."

 

Major revolutions align with Solar Maximums, e.g.: 1775–1783 American War of Independence (Cycle 2), 1789 French Revolution (Cycle 3), 1910 Mexican Revolution (Cycle 14), 1906 and 1917 Russian Revolutions (Cycles 14–15), 1959 Cuban Revolution (Cycle 19), 1979 Revolution in Iran and Nicaragua (Cycle 21), Soviet collapse in 1989–91 (Cycle 22), 1998-2001 Revolution in Venezuela (Cycle 23), Arab Spring 2011 (Cycle 24), 2024 MIGA-MAGA Revolution (Cycle 25).

Contemporary events in 2025, amid elevated sunspot activity, resonate with these dynamics. Geopolitically, persistent conflicts such as the NATO-Russia war in Ukraine, the wars in and around Palestine and Sudan exhibit intensified diplomatic pressures for ceasefires, reflecting Chizhevsky's notion of resolving "world-historical problems." The fall of Assad's regime in Syria has spurred migrations and regional realignments, akin to the "migrations etc., creating new formations in the existence of separate states." Escalations in nuclear proliferation, space security, and hybrid warfare underscore the phase's potential for "devastating raids" and "mass exterminations." 

 

Phase IV: Decreasing excitability (mid-2028 – December 2030): This phase matches NOAA's Declining/Falling Phase, with waning sunspots and field preparation for reversal, representing ~15% of events per Figure 1. It fosters resolution and fatigue:

"The period of decline in excitability is, as it were, an echo of the stormy period of struggle and unrest that preceded it, the highest degree of tension of which has already passed, and a general need for calm and peace is felt. If there is a war, its heat gradually dies down, sluggishness is observed in military actions, their tempo slows down. 

 

» The depressive state of the masses. «

 

[...] Leaders, commanders, orators lose those forces that in the preceding period fettered the masses and forced them to obedience. The masses are already subject to suggestion with difficulty. [...] This lack of unanimity in the 4th period of the historiometric cycle can be called a stumbling block on which any newly-begun uprising, any mass activity risks being wrecked, since concentrated action, due to the reduction and relaxation of the connecting forces, becomes impossible. 

 

[...] Finally, the general decline in excitability is replaced by a psycho-physical state that can be called enervation. Popular assemblies and representations are dispersed without protest, uprisings are easily suppressed, wars do not flare up, and also peace negotiations are mechanically caused by the depressive state of the masses of people, which is often facilitated by physical exhaustion and fatigue."

 

Regarding the economic and financial realm during the remainder of Solar Cycle 25 into around 2030, Helioeconomist Aleksander Valkov recently put forth the following forecast: Given that Solar Cycle 25 reached a stronger-than-expected maximum around 2024–2025, his HELI index indicates that the current global economic expansion has already peaked or is in its final stage. The model forecasts an accelerating contraction phase leading into a major multicycle trough centered on the early 2030s—precisely the period when the next solar minimum is expected. Leonty Miroshnichenko's findings support Valkov's correlation:  "On average, the difference between the peaks and troughs of solar activity and economic cycles does not exceed six months." Furthermore, historical analysis shows that 88% of recessions since the 1800s and 100% of major financial crises occurred during the downturn of sunspot cycles.

 

 Reference:

 Alexander L. Chizhevsky (1924) - The Physical Factors of the Historical Process.

(Чижевский Александр Леонидович (1924) - Физические факторы исторического процессa.)

Suitbert Ertel (1996) - Space Weather and Revolutions - Chizhevsky's Heliobiological Claim Scrutinized.  

Kemalhan Gerçeker et al. (November 26, 2025) - Simplex Projection Predictions of the Remainder of Solar Cycle 25. 

 NOAA (2025) - Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression.