Showing posts with label Solar Cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Solar Cycle. Show all posts

Friday, February 14, 2025

Long-Range Solar Activity Forecast & 2025 US Drought | Theodor Landscheidt

Drought is the most serious physical hazard to agriculture. In the US, the 'Dust Bowl' droughts of the 1930s and 1950s are the most severe examples of the devastating effects of extended periods of dryness. In the 1930s, drought virtually covered the entire Plains for almost a decade. Many crops were damaged by deficient rainfall, high temperatures, strong winds, insect infestations, and dust storms.

» A drought peak is to be expected from 2025 on, and should last about five years. « 
Theodor Landscheidt, 2004.
 
The resulting agricultural depression contributed to the Great Depression's bank closures, business losses, and increased unemployment. These hardships sent economic and social ripples throughout the country. Millions of people migrated from the drought areas in search of work, resulting in conflicts between the newcomers and the long-established residents, as well as overburdened relief and health agencies.
 
»
The sun's varying activity provides a means to predict US droughts many years before.«

[...] It is a notable step forward that the sun's varying activity provides a means to predict US droughts many years before the respective event. I have shown that ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) events, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), extremes in global temperature anomalies, drought in Africa, and European floods are linked to cycles in the sun's orbital motion around the center of mass of the solar system. Figure 1 demonstrates that such a relationship also exists between US droughts and solar cycles.

 Figure 1 shows the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the US from 1900 to 2001. Green (GPTC, Greatest Perturbation in Torque Cycle) and blue (LPTC, Least Perturbation in Torque Cycle) triangles mark solar cycle phases. Before 1934, GPTC was linked to droughts, and LPTC to wet periods. After 1934, this reversed, with LPTC linked to droughts and GPTC to wet periods. Figure 2 presents smoothed data from Figure 1, emphasizing the phase reversal after 1934. The pattern has been stable since then, suggesting it will continue for decades.

The brown curve represents the raw monthly values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2001. This index was devised by Palmer (1965) to indicate the severity of dry and wet spells over the contiguous US. It uses monthly temperature and precipitation data and the Available Water Content (AWC) of the soil, also called soil-water holding capacity. It is based on the supply-and-demand concept of the water balance equation, taking into account more than just the precipitation deficit at specific locations. It is standardized to local climate, so that it can be applied to any part of the country to demonstrate relative drought and rainfall conditions. The US Department of Agriculture uses it to determine when to grant emergency drought assistance.
 
US Drought Monitor, February 11, 2025.

 
Palmer values lag emerging droughts by several months, but respond reliably to weather conditions that have been abnormally dry or wet. The vertical scale in Figure 1 indicates the percentage of the US area affected by moderate to extreme drought. In 1934 the PDSI reached a maximum value of 63 percent. The green and blue triangles in Figure 1 mark special phases in solar motion cycles that can be computed. 
 
[...] By now, these forecasts have turned out correct without exception. Strangely, this has not sent any ripples throughout official science though it is a proclaimed aim of scientific endeavour to make human life easier by dependable forecasts. The rate of change of the sun’s orbital angular momentum L, the rotary force dL/dt driving the sun’s orbital motion (torque), forms a torque cycle with a mean length of 16 years. Perturbations in the sinusoidal course of this cycle recur at quasi-periodical intervals and mark zero phases of a perturbation cycle (PC) with a mean length of 35.8 years. As to details, I refer to Figure 2 in my on-line paper "Solar Eruptions Linked to North Atlantic Oscillation". In Figure 1 presented here, zero phases of the PC are marked by green triangles and the label GPTC (Greatest perturbation in the torque cycle). Blue triangles labelled LPTC (Least perturbation in the torque cycle) mark phases of minimal perturbation.

» 2025 starts a climate instability not seen since the early 1600s. « Simon Hunt, 2025.

I have shown that these phases indicate the peaks of warm PDO regimes and the coolest phases of cold PDO regimes. In 
Figure 1 they are closely linked to extended dry and wet spells. Obviously, there is a phase reversal in the connection just after the PDSI had reached an exceptionally high value of 63 percent in 1934. The instability inherent in these conditions seems to have contributed to the phase reversal, a phenomenon often observed in solar-terrestrial cycles. Before the phase reversal, GPTC (green triangle) coincided with drought conditions and LPTC (blue triangle) with wet conditions. In the latter case, this is easier to see in Figure 2 with data subjected to 4-year moving window Gaussian kernel smoothing.

After the drought peak in 1934 the relationship is reversed. Now LPTCs (blue triangles) consistently go along with drought peaks and GPTCs (green triangles) with wet periods. This pattern has been stable since 1934 and should continue to be stable for many decades as it is modulated by a cycle of 179 years. So the next extended wet period should begin around 2007 and last about 7 to 8 years, as can be derived from 
Figure 1. A drought peak, indicated by LPTC (blue triangle) is to be expected from 2025 on, and should last about five years.

See also:

Saturday, January 4, 2025

Kondratiev Waves Aligned with Solar Cycles | Leonty Miroshnichenko

If cosmophysical periods influence the climate, changes in crop yields, epidemic disasters, and creative productivity, it is difficult to imagine that these rhythms would not be reflected in the economy. The economic cycles discussed in modern literature on the dynamics of economic indicators are well-known space (natural) periods. It was through the study of variations in economic indicators that it was first understood that the dynamics of such a complex system are not described by a single cycle or rhythm, but by a set of cycles, i.e., a spectrum.

Data on Economic Conditions ("Kondratiev waves") versus Solar Activity (SA) shows that the turning points of
economic fluctuations are closely aligned with some maximums of the Wolf number. The dates of SA maxima
and minima prior to 1749 were reconstructed from indirect historical and geophysical data.

The spectrum of economic cycles exhibits a number of peaks, with the most significant periods being: 3.5, 5.5, 8.0, 11.0, 18.0, 20–22, and 54 years. Short periods (e.g., the 3.5 year Kitchin cycle) can have certain regional characteristics. On the other hand, long economic cycles must apply to the entire global economy. These include the long "Kondratiev waves" (54 years), named after the prominent Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev (1892–1938). The graph above shows data on economic conditions ("Kondratiev waves") versus solar activity (SA). The turning points of economic fluctuations closely align with some maximums of the Wolf number. The dates of solar activity maxima and minima prior to 1749 were reconstructed from indirect historical and geophysical data.

Updated December 2, 2024.

The "Kondratiev waves" have been clearly traced in the world economic system since the early eighteenth century, appearing in many indicators simultaneously—such as industrial production, wholesale prices, and the number of innovations in industry and agriculture. Although the parameters of these fluctuations change slightly, reflecting evolutionary changes in the world economy, the cyclical nature persists to the present day. There are various theories about the origin and nature of these fluctuations, which indicates that the issue remains unresolved. In this book, we are primarily concerned with the possible connection between the "Kondratiev waves" and solar activity and ecology. In other words, the question arises: Is there synchronism between the peaks of the "Kondratiev waves" and the cosmophysical parameters?

» On average, the difference between the peaks and troughs of solar activity and economic cycles does not exceed six months. «
88% of recessions since the 1800s and 100% of major financial crises occurred during the downturn of sunspot cycles. 

The answer is illustrated in the first graph above. It shows the positions of the extreme points of the long "Kondratiev waves"—their maxima and minima (peaks and dips). These points are determined by analyzing a large dataset characterizing the state of the world economy since the end of the seventeenth century. In this analysis, we considered the results obtained by representatives of various economic schools, each using their own independent economic indicators (indices). The turning points in the trends of the global economy are marked with arrows, and circles indicate the positions of the solar activity (SA) maxima. Dark circles represent those SA maxima located near the extreme points of the "Kondratiev waves," while light circles represent the others.

As shown in the first graph, in only two cases out of 11, the difference between the dates of the black circles (SA) and the dates of the economic peaks and troughs is 3 years. On average, the difference does not exceed half a year. Thus, changes in the world economy are clearly associated with variations in solar activity: when trends in the development of the world economy change, they are almost certain to occur at the maximum of the solar cycle. The pendulum of the economy swings in sync with solar fluctuations. Whether economic oscillations with a half-century period are self-oscillations or exogenous rhythms is secondary. It is evident that the world rhythm is introduced into the economy by Nature.

 
IZMIRAN (ИЗМИРАН – Institute of Radioastronomy and Applied Physics) is an institute within the
Russian Academy of Sciences (Российская академия наук), located near Moscow.
 
The average 11-year sunspot cycle can vary in length, ranging from eight to fourteen years. This cycle occurs due to the Sun’s magnetic poles flipping—north becomes south and vice versa—approximately every 11 years. About 11 years later, the poles reverse again, making the full solar cycle actually a 22-year phenomenon (Hale Cycle)
 
See also:

Saturday, December 28, 2024

Solar Activity and "Violence-from-Below" Events | Suitbert Ertel

Alexander Chizhevsky's 1921 claim of a relationship between solar activity and revolutionary mass behavior is examined. A Master Index of Violence-from-Below Events (MIVE) is compiled, consisting of 2,101 events and 4,000 references extracted from 18 historical sources (chronologies, timelines, etc.) covering the period A.D. 1700–1985. [...] The relationship between solar activity and violence-from-below is found to be highly significant (p < .001). 

A.L. Chizhevsky (1897–1964), Russian scientist, Soviet Gulag prisoner, and founder of heliobiology, a field dedicated to
studying the impact of solar activity on biological, social, and psychological processes. His work spanned experimental
biophysics and hematology (structural analysis of blood). In addition to his scientific pursuits, Chizhevsky wrote poetry,
engaged in literary criticism, and taught history and archaeology.
 
At the 1926 Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, an American participant delivered a paper written in 1921 by Alexander Leonidovich Chizhevsky, who was then a 24-year old Russian scholar. Its bombastic title "The Influence of Cosmic Factors Upon the Behavior of Organized Human Masses, as Well as Upon the Universal Historical Process" appeared laughable. The author claimed that occurrences of social unrest, rebellions, upheavals, revolutions are significantly correlated with solar activity, i.e., with the ups and downs of magnetic turbulence of the sun. In his own words: "The greatest revolutions, wars and other mass movements which have created nations, have given origin to the turning points of history, and have shaken the life of humanity and entire continents, tend to coincide with the periods of the maxima of the sun’s activity". [...] Since 1958, after being rehabilitated from Stalin's Gulag system, Chizhevsky has been acknowledged in Russia and elsewhere as the founder of the discipline of "heliobiology." By then some of his claims had appeared less vaunting and more admissible, especially in medical science circles: Typhus, influenza pandemics, cholera, and other epidemic diseases, as well as the morbidity of animals, were alleged to be correlated with solar activity. Chizhevsky's major claim, however, the correlation of turning points in human history with solar maximum conditions, was deemed unthinkable.
 
Secrets of the Sun — A.L. Chizhevsky's legacy.

[...] In line with Chizhevsky’s hypothesis it is assumed that human behavior, if correlated at all with solar activity, would turn spontaneous and impulsive under helioactive conditions among many people at the same time. The probability of mass activation would increase. Therefore all events indicating "violence-from-below" are regarded pertinent, i.e. spectacular attempts by large groups of people at enforcing changes of their living conditions. The category "violence from below" has been adopted from Johan Galtung who distinguished between (1) violence from below (revolutionary violence); (2) violence from above (counter-revolutionary); (3) horizontal violence between equals over some incompatible goals; and (4) random violence, related neither to interests nor to goals. 
 
» An event is coded violence-from-below if the chronology
refers to it by one or more of the above verbal labels.
«
 
 » The idea of Q-analysis is simple. If historical events are independent of solar activity, their temporal distances from
the nearest solar maximum should be random. Even though a revolution might coincide with a solar maximum due
to chance, this should occur relatively infrequently. For larger numbers of historical turning points, temporal distances
from solar maximum years should not differ from chance expectation. The same applies for solar minimum years. «

Unlike Chizhevsky, we did not lump events of Galtung's four categories together. Thus, all horizontal violence acts were not considered, such as territorial or international wars, which are generally not launched by the people but by institutional authorities. Violence from above was also excluded, except if such occurrences indicated preceding acts of violence from below. Galtung's random violence events (Category 4), such as massacres and pogroms—however rare expressions of mass unrest—were also included. [...] Palace revolts, coups d’états, and similar instances of violence without involvement of the ruled masses remained unconsidered, as well as individual acts of violence directed against authorities without apparent involvement of a larger population (e.g., assassination, terror acts). [...]
 
Conclusions
Evidence has been accumulated in this study supporting the claim of Chizhevsky of a connection between solar activity and violence-from-below. A comprehensive Master Index of Violence Events (the MIVE database) was compiled, and influence of bias was strictly excluded. The procedure of analysis circumvented methodological artifacts arising from autocorrelations. In addition, the distribution generated by randomizations allowed for straightforward significance judgments. Finally, results obtained from genuine data were compared with results obtained from various controls. It turned out that the hypothesized connection between solar activity and violence-from-below is positive (the more solar activity, the more social violence), and the correlation is generally not lagged. 
 
 » The more solar activity, the more social violence, and the correlation is generally not lagged. «
A p-value of less than 0.001 indicates the very strong statistical correlation between solar activity and violence-from-below, 
making the result highly reliable, with the likelihood of the relationship occurring by chance being less than 0.1%.

In sum, history text references to violence-from-below events tend to coincide with the years of maximum solar activity. However, a number of ensuing problems need to be solved:
  1. Physical Variables: Which variables are actually effective? Are solar emissions responsible? Are mediators like geophysical disturbances or climate involved? Solar activity effects on the world’s climate are too small and too slow to explain unlagged revolutionary behavior. Geomagnetic influence is somewhat more likely, but cycles of geomagnetism peak about two years later than solar cycles. Cosmic radiation, whose intensity is attenuated by solar magnetism, might be an effective variable.
  2. Physiological Variables: Which psychobiological structures underlying violence-from-below are responsive to such hidden stimulation? Neural structures for sensory or subsensory perception, for emotional processes, or for cognitive processes?
  3. Effect Size: How strong are solar correlated (external) factors compared to social-political dynamics (internal factors)? The external factors are apparently strong enough to emerge despite internal political dynamics. If the external effects were weak, they would be diluted.
  4. Effect Limitations: Why is solar maxima not always associated with violence-from-below? Why did high violence-from-below sometimes emerge despite low solar activity? Historical incidences of unexpectedly high or low violence — “unexpectedly” in view of deviating solar conditions — might be of foremost interest for investigating the range of heliodependence of social-political dynamics. 
  5. Concomitants: The role of revolutionary events in broader societal and historical contexts must be considered. Long wave oscillations have been claimed between liberal and conservative worldviews, and economic cycles of the famous Kondratiev type ought to be put into perspective. The connection between violence-from-below with conflicts of horizontal extension (international wars) needs investigation.
  6. Generalizations: Revolutionary movements are generally seen as expressions of new ideas rather than as blind valves releasing stowed-up aggressions: “Revolution is ... a war of ideas”. The question arises whether ideational activity in other domains, aside from the social-political domain, may oscillate with changing solar activity-related conditions.
  7. Present and Future: How strong is solar activity in 1996? We find ourselves in the midst of a solar minimum. Applying our above observations, we may be tempted to conclude that presently the probability of major world revolutions is low. The most recent turning point in contemporary history occurred in 1989, a solar maximum year. The 1989 revolution brought to an end an era whose beginning was the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, a solar maximum year. The next solar maximum is expected for A.D. 2000 or 2001. The probability of revolutionary upheavals on this globe should then be greater. It seems advisable, however, to postpone predictions and to rather await further conclusions from research conducted by macroecologists, i.e., by a team of experts from all those disciplines of science, social science, and history whose contributions to solving the solar activity riddle are badly needed. Regrettably, such a team does not yet exist, but researchers in chronobiology/chronomedicine and in biogeomagnetics are not far from setting the stage: "An international and truly interdisciplinary effort will be required to ascertain the validity of biogeomagnetics ... to scrutinize physiological harbingers and their possible correlations with 'space weather' parameters."
 

Thursday, March 21, 2024

Sunspots, Lunar Cycles and Weather Cycles | Louis M. Thompson

The occurrence of an 18- to 20-year cycle in weather in the U.S. Midwest is no longer controversial. The controversial issue is the cause. This article will present both sides of the issue, and will indicate why we will know more about the cause after the 1990s.


[...] The sunspot cycle has been associated with the “20-year drought cycle” in the western U.S. since about 1909, when A.E. Douglass started publishing his tree-ring studies. This scientist became so well known that he was able to establish the Laboratory for Tree Ring Research in Tuscon, Arizona, in 1938. 
 

[...] The sunspot cycle has averaged about 11 years since 1800. As the sun rotates on its axis, it makes a complete turn in about 27 days. Large and persistent spots appear to move from left to right for about two weeks, disappear, and return after about two weeks. The leading edges of spots or clusters of spots have a negative charge in one 11-year cycle and a positive charge in the next cycle. Hence, the term “double sunspot cycle.”


The conventional wisdom is that the drought cycle of about 20 years occurs near the end of the negative cycle and at the time of low solar activity. The drought periods of the 1910s, 1930s, 1950s, and 1970s occurred at the end of the negative cycle. The drought periods did not consistently follow that pattern from 1800 to 1900, although the severe droughts of the 1820s and 1840s occurred at the end of the negative cycle.

Quoted from:
Louis M. Thompson (1989) - Sunspots and Lunar Cycles: Their Possible Relation to Weather Cycles.
In: Cycles, September/October 1989, Foundation for the Study of Cycles.
 
See also:
William Stanley Jevons (1875) - Sunspots and the Price of Corn and Wheat.

Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE in 2024 | Jack Gillen

 
» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more or less active for each year,
as the Sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year. 
So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «
 
Quoted from:

 
Date Sun's Longitude Position Effect on US Stock Indexes
     
2023 12 08 (Fri) = SUN @ 16 SAG = 256 degrees negative
2023 12 12 (Tue) = SUN @ 20 SAG = 260 degrees negative
2023 12 16 (Sat) = SUN @ 24 SAG = 264 degrees positive
2023 12 28 (Thu) = SUN @ 6 CAP = 276 degrees positive
2024 01 02 (Tue) = SUN @ 11 CAP = 281 degrees positive
2024 01 06 (Sat) = SUN @ 16 CAP = 286 degrees negative
2024 01 19 (Fri) = SUN @ 29 CAP = 299 degrees negative
2024 01 30 (Tue) = SUN @ 10 AQU = 310 degrees positive
2024 02 03 (Sat) = SUN @ 14 AQU = 314 degrees positive
2024 02 06 (Tue) = SUN @ 17 AQU = 317 degrees negative
2024 02 18 (Sun) = SUN @ 29 AQU = 329 degrees negative
2024 02 23 (Fri) = SUN @ 4 PIS = 334 degrees negative
2024 02 24 (Sat) = SUN @ 5 PIS = 335 degrees negative
2024 03 03 (Sun) = SUN @ 13 PIS = 343 degrees positive
2024 03 11 (Mon) = SUN @ 21 PIS = 351 degrees positive
2024 03 24 (Sun) = SUN @ 4 ARI = 4 degrees positive
2024 03 31 (Sun) = SUN @ 11 ARI = 11 degrees positive
2024 04 07 (Sun) = SUN @ 18 ARI = 18 degrees negative
2024 04 13 (Sat) = SUN @ 24 ARI = 24 degrees negative
2024 04 26 (Fri) = SUN @ 6 TAU = 36 degrees negative
2024 05 01 (Wed) = SUN @ 12 TAU = 42 degrees neutral
2024 05 08 (Wed) = SUN @ 18 TAU = 48 degrees negative
2024 05 19 (Sun) = SUN @ 19 TAU = 59 degrees neutral
2024 05 25 (Sat) = SUN @ 5 GEM = 65 degrees negative
2024 06 06 (Thu) = SUN @ 16 GEM = 76 degrees neutral
2024 06 07 (Fri) = SUN @ 17 GEM = 77 degrees negative
2024 06 08 (Sat) = SUN @ 18 GEM = 78 degrees neutral
2024 06 29 (Sat) = SUN @ 8 CAN = 98 degrees positive
2024 07 04 (Thu) = SUN @ 13 CAN = 103 degrees negative
2024 07 07 (Sun) = SUN @ 16 CAN = 106 degrees positive
2024 07 10 (Wed) = SUN @ 18 CAN = 108 degrees negative
2024 07 24 (Wed) = SUN @ 2 LEO = 122 degrees negative
2024 07 29 (Mon) = SUN @ 6 LEO = 126 degrees positive
2024 08 09 (Fri) = SUN @ 17 LEO = 137 degrees negative
2024 08 10 (Sat) = SUN @ 18 LEO = 138 degrees positive
2024 09 02 (Mon) = SUN @ 10 VIR = 160 degrees negative
2024 09 04 (Wed) = SUN @ 12 VIR = 162 degrees positive
2024 09 05 (Thu) = SUN @ 13 VIR = 163 degrees negative
2024 09 20 (Fri) = SUN @ 28 VIR = 178 degrees positive
2024 09 24 (Tue) = SUN @ 2 LIB = 182 degrees negative
2024 10 07 (Mon) = SUN @ 14 LIB = 194 degrees negative
2024 10 14 (Mon) = SUN @ 21 LIB = 201 degrees positive
2024 10 22 (Tue) = SUN @ 29 LIB = 209 degrees positive
2024 10 25 (Fri) = SUN @ 2 SCO = 212 degrees negative
2024 10 27 (Sun) = SUN @ 4 SCO = 214 degrees negative
2024 11 03 (Sun) = SUN @ 11 SCO = 221 degrees positive
2024 11 21 (Thu) = SUN @ 29 SCO = 239 degrees positive
2024 11 25 (Mon) = SUN @ 3 SAG = 243 degrees positive
2024 12 08 (Sun) = SUN @ 16 SAG = 256 degrees negative
2024 12 12 (Thu) = SUN @ 20 SAG = 260 degrees negative
2024 12 15 (Sun) = SUN @ 24 SAG = 264 degrees positive
2024 12 27 (Fri) = SUN @ 6 CAP = 276 degrees positive
2025 01 01 (Wed) = SUN @ 11 CAP = 281 degrees positive
2025 01 06 (Mon) = SUN @ 16 CAP = 286 degrees negative
2025 01 19 (Sun) = SUN @ 29 CAP = 299 degrees negative
2025 01 30 (Thu) = SUN @ 10 AQU = 310 degrees positive
2025 02 03 (Mon) = SUN @ 14 AQU = 314 degrees positive