The 500 Year Cycle | Raymond H. Wheeler

The 1000 year cycle tends to break down into halves of about 500 years each. Centering on the dates of 375 BC, 30 AD, 460 AD, 955 AD, and 1475 AD, climate was dry and colder than usual. The warm periods were short and were often disrupted by drops in temperature. Midway between these dates, the warm periods stretched out; the interruptions were not as long, and the cold periods shortened. The result is an intermediate cycle averaging 510 years in length.

 

 

 » Mass migrations were extensive, and all the ancient civilizations collapsed. «

Vandals sacking Rome, 455 AD.

The beginning of the first of these 500-year rhythms marks an important place in the history of climate. Prior to 575 BC, climatic cycles were longer and more extreme than they have been since then. In the two centuries immediately following, from 450 ta 320 BC, it was warm much of the time. Two 100-year cycles were almost fused into one. The cold period between them, at 420 BC, was very short. After that, the cold periods lengthened. By the end of this 500-year period, at the time of Christ, there was an exceptionally long cold period.

The cold phase centering on 460 AD, at the end of the next 500-year cycle, was also exceptionally cold. Mass migrations were extensive, and all the ancient civilizations collapsed. There was a long-term downward trend in rainfall. Although there were long cold phases in the 600s and 700s, they were frequently interrupted by silts to the warm side and did not seem to be exceptionally bad. The cold phases of the 800s and 900s were extremely severe, causing many migrations, primarily from the northern countries — especially when conditions began to deteriorate approaching 955, near the end of the 500-year rhythm.

 

 » Civilizations broke up and new ones took their places. «

 Migrants storming European Union borders, 2024 AD.

Subsequently, temperatures warmed suddenly. The 1000s were so warm that trees grew in Greenland. This was the period when Vikings crossed the Atlantic, One of the most severe hot droughts in history occurred in the 1130s. The 13th century saw a long warm period. Then climate began to deteriorate again. While the 14th century was warm much of the time, there were frequent and sharp drops in temperature; often it was very stormy. During several winters, the straits between Denmark and Sweden froze over solid enough to support horses and sleds, Greenland began to freeze. In the 15th century, there was no long warm period.

The next 500-year rhythm terminated at 1475. Subsequently, temperatures warmed up again. The 17th century was so warm that the next 100-year cycle had but a short cold phase, centering on 1655, and this was quickly interrupted by a shift back to the warm side. During the 19th and 20th centuries, climate deteriorated again.

 

» The 500 year period beginning at 1475 is drawing to a close. «

 Migrants breaching US southern border, 2024 AD.

Climate change? Sure.

Events of great importance occur every 500 years. Midway between 575 BC and 460 AD, the Roman Empire began its decline as Christianity rose. There were no strong European civilizations for a long time. On the other hand, there were very strong Asiatic empires such as that of the Huns. Midway between 460 and 1475, in the 9th and 10th centuries, a vast change occurred, again involving mass migrations, These events divided the Middle Ages into two halves. In the first half, there were brilliant empires like those of Justinian with its capital at Constantinople, Charlemagne in the West, and the Arabs in the East. The Arabs moved into Spain and India, developing brilliant civilizations at Cordoba and Bagdad. But all this came to an end. These civilizations broke up and new ones took their places. Following 975, the feudal period developed, with the growth of principalities that were to form modern European states. Amazing empires were built by the Mongols in Asia, the Incas in South America, and the Mayas in Central America. In India and Japan, new empires were born. The Balkans achieved their Golden Ages during this period.

All this came to an end in the 15th century. The Medieval economy, customs, and modes of thought disappeared. With the new 500-year climatic cycle came the Renaissance, the Reformation, and the building of modern nations — first under absolute monarchs, then under constitutional governments. This most recent 500-year cycle has witnessed the awakening of modern art, science, and economics. In these more advanced civilizations, the common people have, for the first time in history, come into their own under democratic political and economic systems.

 » The same types of events occurr with almost clock-like regularity. «

The 500 year period beginning at 1475 is drawing to a close. We are now witnessing many of the same types of events that have occurred under similar circumstances with almost clock-like regularity five times before in history. These events are of the utmost significance for the businessman and student of today — and tomorrow.

 

Quoted from:

Raymond H. Wheeler (1943) - The 500 Year Cycle. 

In: Michael G. Zahorchak (Ed. 1983) - Climate, the Key to Understanding Business Cycles: 

With a Forecast of Trends Into the 21st Century.

 

  » A 500-year cycle is now terminating, which belonged to Europe.
The next 500-year cycle will belong to Asia. «
Raymond H. Wheeler, 1951.

See also:
Raymond H. Wheeler (1943) - The 100 Year Cycle - Climate, Regime Change and War.
Donald A. Bradley (1943) - Cycles Write World History.

Peter Temple (2017) - The Wheel of Time. Raymond H. Wheeler's Drought Clock.

Sunspots, Lunar Cycles and Weather Cycles | Louis M. Thompson

The occurrence of an 18- to 20-year cycle in weather in the U.S. Midwest is no longer controversial. The controversial issue is the cause. This article will present both sides of the issue, and will indicate why we will know more about the cause after the 1990s.

[...] The sunspot cycle has been associated with the “20-year drought cycle” in the western U.S. since about 1909, when A.E. Douglass started publishing his tree-ring studies. This scientist became so well known that he was able to establish the Laboratory for Tree Ring Research in Tuscon, Arizona, in 1938. 

 

[...] The sunspot cycle has averaged about 11 years since 1800. As the sun rotates on its axis, it makes a complete turn in about 27 days. Large and persistent spots appear to move from left to right for about two weeks, disappear, and return after about two weeks. The leading edges of spots or clusters of spots have a negative charge in one 11-year cycle and a positive charge in the next cycle. Hence, the term “double sunspot cycle.”

The conventional wisdom is that the drought cycle of about 20 years occurs near the end of the negative cycle and at the time of low solar activity. The drought periods of the 1910s, 1930s, 1950s, and 1970s occurred at the end of the negative cycle. The drought periods did not consistently follow that pattern from 1800 to 1900, although the severe droughts of the 1820s and 1840s occurred at the end of the negative cycle.

Quoted from:
Louis M. Thompson (1989) - Sunspots and Lunar Cycles: Their Possible Relation to Weather Cycles.
In: Cycles, September/October 1989, Foundation for the Study of Cycles.
 
See also:
William Stanley Jevons (1875) - Sunspots and the Price of Corn and Wheat.

Raymond H. Wheeler (1943) - The 100 Year Cycle - Climate, Regime Change and War.

 Donald A. Bradley (1950) - Cycles Write World History.

Michael G. Zahorchak (1983) - Climate, the Key to Understanding Business Cycles: With a Forecast of Trends Into the 21st Century.
Jasper Kirkby (1998) - Sunspot Cycle Length vs Temperature Anomaly.
Henrik Svensmark (2007) - The Cloud Mystery.
Tom McClellan (2012) - Sunspots - The Real Cause of Higher Grain Prices.
TPR (2016) - Inigo Owen Jones. The Weather Prophet.
Valentina V. Zharkova et al. (2017) - The Heartbeat of the Sun.

 Peter Temple (2017) - The Wheel of Time: Raymond H. Wheeler's Drought Clock.

Peter Temple (2019) - An Introduction to Climate Cycles.

Cycles Write World History | Donald A. Bradley

Research embracing many fields of scientific pursuit and all available historical records proves that the climate of the earth as a whole goes through long cycles. World-climate shifts from cold to warm periods and from wet to dry periods with amazing regularity. Dry periods accompanied by colder weather take place about every 170 years, every third such “cold drought” being severe in its effects.

"The turning points between old and new civilizations occur when 

cold-dry times reach their maximum severity."

Professor Raymond H. Wheeler, eminent psychologist of the University of Kansas, heads this study project which finds an important correlation between world climate and political history. Dr. Wheeler's analysis of an immense accumulation of data shows that great international changes occur on these shifts from warm to cold and vice versa. Nations deteriorate on the shift from warm to cold, the study reveals. What is probably most fascinating among the findings is that totalitarianism is representative of world-wide political sentiment during warm periods. Democracy is vivified and sought after by men during cold periods. Intervals of cold droughts usually coincide with eras of civil wars. International wars are fought, for the most part, during warmer times. The Wheeler project has identified basic mass-psychological patterns with every climatic condition found in the global weather cycle. Public attitudes and popular ideas are directly colored by the general nature of the world-climate prevailing at any time.

 

Raymond H. Wheeler and his 'big book'.

 

Astrology offers a logical explanation for this 170-year rhythm in world activities. It is hardly a coincidence that every cold-drought is synchronized with one of the solar system's major planetary configurations. Called a great mutation in astrological parlance, a conjunction of the planets Uranus and Neptune occurs every 171 years, on the average. These conjunctions are within effective orb for 15 years before and after their central date of coming-together in the sky. This Uranus-Neptune cycle leaves a continuous impression on the unwinding scroll of world history in inciting those conditions in human and natural affairs described.

Central conjunctions of Uranus and Neptune took place in the A.D. years of 

110, 281, 453, 624, 796, 967, 1139, 1310, 1481, 1653 and 1824 [1906-10, 1993, 2078-81, 2165]

[The years cited mark the general centers of the 30-year influence at work. They are computed for the conjunctions in mean heliocentric longitude, and not for the apparent (geocentric) times of occurrence. The time-margin allowed for this difference is nearly a whole decade.]

Each of these epochs is at or near the dead center of a period of serious cold drought recorded in the annals of history and science. It is no surprise to the astrologer that lowered mean temperature, lack of much rainfall, political stress and civil war itself should be typical of our earth’s response to these vibrations. Uranian influences alone have long been recognized as revolutionary in action. Neptune is peculiarly associated with meteorological matters, and also with canons of idealistic thought. Astrologers are generally agreed that Neptune is the planet of “isms” and ideologies which provoke national and international changes of attitude. Uranus is disruptive in action and progressive in the long run. Neptune, on the other hand, is said to determine world sentiments which have an emotional base. Conjunctions of these divergent forces bring about the years of famine and civil strife which make and break the great economic and political structures we call nations.

The primary precipitation-and-temperature cycle is obviously connected with a particular interplanetary periodicity. There are dozens if not hundreds of other cycles in man’s social and natural environment which can be traced to similar causes. Relations of two or more planets to each other as viewed from the earth are called aspects. The positions of any moving heavenly body across the great star-sprangled backdrop of the sky are called transits. In astrology, we make use of the term transit to mean the location of a planet by the sign of the zodiac it occupies. Aspects and sign-transits of the various planets are the fundamental causes of cycles on earth. Although not actually zodiacal factors, the declinations of certain planets and changes in the elements of planetary orbits are found to be strong components in the astrological theory of world cycles.

Above and beyond true physical phenomena is the strange tendency of world affairs toward cycles which reflect the general connotations of successive zodiacal signs. This is apparent if one reconsiders the famous historical analyses of Oswald Spengler in the light of astrology. Spengler’s anthropomorphic outlines of spiritual, cultural and political “contemporary epochs” seem to follow a fascinating zodiac of characteristics, commencing each broad swing in mankind’s affairs with typical Aries qualities, and culminating it, after ten more eras, with Piscean attributes. The reason for this inclination is inexplicable, at the present, as no astronomical connection has been discovered.

Mention of such interesting matters lays the groundwork for our immediate subject — that of applying astrology as a calculable gauge of contemporary economic conditions.

Quoted from:
Donald A. Bradley (1950) – Stock Market Prediction. The Planetary Barometer and How to Use it.

See also:
Raymond H. Wheeler (1943) - The 100 Year Cycle - Climate, Regime Change and War.

Michael G. Zahorchak (1983) - Climate, the Key to Understanding Business Cycles: With a Forecast of Trends Into the 21st Century.
Peter Temple (2017) - The Wheel of Time: Raymond H. Wheeler's Drought Clock.

Peter Temple (2019) - An Introduction to Climate Cycles.

Politics, Climate, and the Economy │ Peter Temple

Peter Temple (Mar 19, 2017) - Above is a chart of the US Presidents from 1913 through 2016. You can see the politicians who were liked and are considered “good leaders” by historians (green circles and check marks). The there are those we dislike (red circles and x’s) and threw out of office because “they destroyed the economy.”

Dr. Wheeler spent his entire life analyzing weather cycles back over 20 centuries to 600 BC. He found that major climate cycles changed every 25, 100, 500, and 1000 years and that they’re fractal, which means there are smaller cycles within larger cycles. During his life, he put together an archive of world events relative to changes in climate that was some 2000 pages in length, and when open, spanned a length of some 7 feet. To the left is the only shot I’ve found of him working on “The Big Book.” Here are the four twenty-five year cycles:

Spring: warm and wet
Summer, warm and dry
Fall: cool and wet
Winter: cold and dry.

The roaring ’20s (yellow) were mostly wet and warm, but in 1929 (red arrow), it got very cold – the mercury plunged. Cold and dry has always led to tough economic times. The stock market crashed. Then the next year, 1930 (green arrow points to temperature drop), was the driest year in over 150 years. It ushered in ten straight years of dry and hot (red)—about the hottest on record over the past couple of hundred years: The Great Depression. Hot and dry weather in history has led to a major war, despotism, dictators, socialism, communism, world wars, and other atrocities.

In the mid 40s (purple), it turned cool and wet … the economy picked up and the war ended. It lasted through to the ’60s—we had the Beatles, love and flowers … great times! Cool climate means energy–humans become much more active. Wet means prosperity in terms of food.

But in the late ’60s (green), we turned cold and dry … and that led to a deep recession that lasted through the late 70s. In fact there were articles in all the major newspapers predicting a mini ice age. Well, you’re likely to see those again.

But then it turned warm again in the ’80s (blue), the stock market turned up, and business started to boom! It was a warm-wet spring cycle once again—that means prosperity … and that lasted through the 90s, when it also started to get dry and cool again (after 1998).

These climate cycles happen so regularly, that in the 1940s Dr. Wheeler predicted the current change in climate with his drought clock. And sure enough, in 1998, the temperature started to cool and we’ve been getting cooler and dyer ever since. He also predicted extreme weather in the early twenty first century because we’re at the end of an even larger five hundred year cycle. Two major climate cycles are transitioning right now. That’s why we have such extreme weather (see also HERE).

The Wheel of Time | Raymond H. Wheeler's Drought Clock

Peter Temple (Feb 5, 2017) - Dr. Raymond H. Wheeler (1892-1961) developed a clock to forecast recurring droughts, which coincided with colder climates. He found that every 170 years, the climate would turn colder and dryer, social mood would turn negative, civil wars would proliferate, and the economy would suffer from financial collapse.

Although he completed his work during the 1930s, 40s, and 50s, he was able to accurately forecast the second half of the 20th century, based upon the cycles that occurred over and over again like clockwork from 600 BC through today. The Drought Clock shows shorter 100 Year Cycles of cold and dry which are compounded by the larger degree 170 Year Cycle, when they happen at the same time. You can see that he forecast the start of a cold, dry 170 Year Cycle just before the year 2000. Cold dry periods in history have almost always led to droughts (limited access to food), civil wars, riots, and economic recessions or depressions [...] The 515 Year Climate Cycle is also a major Civilization Cycle where virtually everything around us changes (more details Here + HERE).

The 100 Year Cycle - Climate, Regime Change & War│Raymond H. Wheeler

In the 1940s, while at the University of Kansas, Professor Raymond Holder Wheeler engaged in an immense project: He summarized all of recorded history. He compiled 2,500 years of records from which he derived many brilliant hypotheses. At one time he employed as many as 200 scientists. He concluded that climate and human history were intimately related. He discovered many related cycles but declared the most important one was the 100 Year Cycle.

 

 » The turning points between old and new civilizations
occur when cold-dry times reach their maximum severity. «

 

The climate of the earth shifts from warmer to colder periods and back again, frequently in rhythms. Throughout history, there has been a sequence of  four seasons on many diverse time periods, including  1,000 Years, 500 Years, 100 Years, 10 Years, 1 Year and likely others. The Earth’s coldest periods were usually followed by excessive warmth. Such was the case when temperatures moved from the Medieval Warm Period between 900 and 1300 A.D. to the sudden ‘Little Ice Age’ which peaked in the 17th Century. Since 2,500 B.C. there have been at least 78 major climate changes worldwide, including two major changes in just the past 40 years. History shows that nations are usually built on shifts from cold periods to warm, when the human energy level temporarily reaches a maximum, while nations crumble on the shift from warm to cold. International wars occur mostly during warm periods, civil wars during cold ones. Each phase, warm and cold, begins wet and ends dry. Cold droughts and centers of civil war epochs generally coincide. A major cold drought and civil war period occurs about every 510 years; generally less severe ones every 170 years (171 Year Neptune-Uranus Cycle). There are also shorter rhythms: The generally warmer period at the beginning of the 20th century ended during World War II. Totalitarianism is typical of late-half warm periods; democracy is revived during cold times.

Raymond H. Wheeler (1943): The Effect of Climate on Human Behavior in History. In: Transactions of the Kansas Academy of Science, Vol. 46.

Wheeler’s cycle averages 100 years, although it may run as short as seventy years and as long as 120 years. The cycle is divided into four phases, also not precisely equal in duration, but in general, the cycle has a warm and a cold phase, with each of these having a wet and a dry period (18.6 Lunar Nodal Cycle): 

 

(1) The Cold-Dry Period (early 1870s to early 1900s and early 1960s to late 1970s): This is a time of general individualism, with weak governments, migrations, and other mob actions such as race riots. Class struggles and civil wars ranging from palace intrigues to revolutions occur during the general anarchy of the cold-dry period. People are cosmopolitan, borrowing culture and living by superficial and skeptical philosophies. As this phase nears an end and fades into the next phase, leadership emerges and societies become stabilized; new governments develop and nationalistic spirit revives. Wars take the form of expansion and imperialism. In the transition from the cold to the warm era, human energies operate at a high level (just as in the spring of the year). Learning is revived, genius appears, industrial revolutions occur, crops are good, and times are prosperous.

Temperature fluctuations over the past 20,000 years showing the abrupt cooling and warming events during the
Younger Dryas. The late Pleistocene cold glacial climate that built immense ice sheets terminated suddenly
about 14,500 years ago, causing glaciers to melt dramatically. About 12,800 years ago, after about 2,000 years
of fluctuating climate, temperatures plunged suddenly and remained cool for 1,300 years.
The mammoths disappeared at about the same time, as did some Native American and Siberian cultures that thrived
on hunting them. About 11,500 years ago, the climate again warmed suddenly; the Younger Dryas ended and the
Holocene Interglacial Period began. Soils developed, agriculture and permanent settlements became possible due
to relatively high temperature levels during the past 10,000 years.Large parts of Northern Africa began to dry
up and convert into desert during the Egyptian Warm Period 3,300 years ago. Animals and humans moved to the
Mediterranean, the Nile Valley and the Sahel (arabic for 'shore'), the southern edge of the Sahara desert.

 

(2) The Warm-Wet Period (early 1900s to early 1920s and late 1970s to late 1990s): This period sees the climax of the trends started in the previous transition, with achievement becoming organized, and the emphasis put on cooperation and integration of views and effort rather than individual accomplishment. Interest in the state rather than the individual develops and governments become more rigid and centralized. 

(3) The Warm-Dry Period (early 1920s to mid 1940s and late 1990s to early 2020s): As climate changes from a general warm-wet phase to warm-dry phase, the rigid governments of the previous period become despotic, police states emerge, personal freedom declines, behavior-patterns are introverted. In art, surrealistic, impressionistic and nihilistic patterns develop, and in business, aggressiveness and self-confidence decline with subsequent depressions and the collapse of economic systems. During the transition to the next cold period wars reflect the culmination of the decadence of the previous period and become the cruelest type of struggle with entire populations slaughtered or enslaved. However, as the temperature falls and rainfall increases, activity increases, crops are again good, and general revival begins.

(4) The Cold-Wet Period (mid 1940s to early 1960s and mid 2020s to late 2040s): This phase sees the reemergence of individualistic philosophy, with decentralizing and reorganizing trends in government and business. It is a period of emancipation and natural behavior; art is straightforward and simple; scholarship follows mechanistic lines. These trends continue and grow until they reach a climax of general anarchy during the cold-dry period to follow. In 1949 Wheeler indicated that the US were passing through a cold-wet period and heading for a Cold-Dry Period.

Within these 20-30 year periods or ‘seasons’, there are smaller ‘seasons’ - in the same sequence that account for variations within each bigger ‘season’. Once this 100 Year Cycle is complete, it blends into a larger cycle. We are currently witnessing the conclusion of a 500 Year Cycle and the breakdown of the global 'Western' hegemony - a period similar to the early 16th century in Europe (491 Year Neptune-Pluto Cycle or 3 Neptune-Uranus Cycles). The early 1500s were characterized by technological innovation, population growth and migration, productive and capitalistic expansion, religious secessionism and wars, regime changes and breakdowns, as well as by the emergence of new empires and global players. Today we are obviously in another warm period that started in the mid 1970s and had reached its peak around 2000.