2026 High in the Benner Cycle | "Time to Sell Stocks and Values of all Kinds"

"Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices" was authored by Samuel T. Benner and first published in 1875. Benner was an Ohio farmer who, after suffering heavy losses during the Panic of 1873, became intensely interested in the recurring patterns of economic booms and busts. 

 

 » Periods When to Make Money. «  Original business card of George Tritch Hardware Co., 1872.

Through his studies, he identified repeating 8-9-10, 16-18-20, and 27-year cycles that he believed aligned with both lunar cycles, solar activity, and major economic turning points. According to analyses of historical events, his forecasts achieved roughly 90% accuracy (more background HERE). For 2025, Benner’s cycle predicted the US stock market driving higher. For 2026, Benner's chart forecasts a major stock market top: "High Prices and the Time to Sell Stocks and Values of All Kinds" into 2032 ["Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a Good Time to Buy Stocks"].   

 » "B." [2026] Years of Good Times. High Prices and the Time to Sell Stocks and Values of All Kinds. «  

  

Benner Cycle Forecast for the Period 2015–2035.

In Benner's projection 2026 is marked as a "B" phase year — a peak of high prices and euphoria, often the culmination of a bull market before a shift to downturns. Historical "B" peaks have aligned (often within 1-2 years) with major tops like: 1929 (Great Depression peak), 2000 (dot-com bubble), 2007 (pre-2008 crisis), and others. 2026 is the final peak year, and should be followed by underperformance or bearish conditions into 2032.

 

 

Martin Armstrong contends that Benner’s cycle is more a historical curiosity than a reliable predictive tool, noting that it has been both right and wrong many times: 

 

The claim that Benner’s Cycle predicted the Great Depression is false. The chart [above] that was published in the Wall Street Journal altered Samuel Benner’s cycle, which was based on agriculture. It predicted a high in 1927, not 1929, and the low in 1930, not 1932. Claims that Benner’s work calls for a crash in 2025 are flat-out wrong. His target years would be 2019 and 2035, based on his data, not the altered, fake news published by the Wall Street Journal in 1933.

 

Benner was a farmer. Applying his cycle to the economy today is no longer effective, any more than the Kondratieff Wave. Both were based on the economy, with agriculture being the #1 sector. As the Industrial Revolution unfolded, those cycles remain relevant for commodities, but not the economy. Agriculture, when Benner developed his model, accounted for 53% of the economy. Today it is 3%. If they were alive today, they would have used the services industry. Capital flows are still pointing to the dollar, given the prospect of war and sovereign defaults outside the USA.

Martin Armstrong, August 30, 2025.

 

See also: 

TPR (2022) - "Periods When to Make Money" | Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low. 

Unlocking the "Years-Ending-in-5" Market Signal | Jake Bernstein

One of the most reliable patterns I’ve observed in markets appears in years ending in the number five. It is simple: take the January high of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If the market records two consecutive monthly closes above that high, history shows a strong rally often follows into early December or even year-end. This is a purely mechanical setup; without the two closes, the pattern remains dormant.

Detrended Weekly Seasonal Composite Future chart for the S&P 500 from 1942 to 2024.

Looking back, the results are striking. In 1995, the trigger led to a more than twenty percent advance. 1985 produced roughly fifteen percent, 1975 seven to ten percent, and even 1965, after a brief pullback, ended higher by about five percent. Earlier examples include 1955 with fifteen percent, and 1935 and 1945 each with nearly thirty percent rallies. Not every “five” year triggers the setup—as in 2005 and 2015—but when it does, the outcome has consistently favored the bulls.

 Dow Jones (monthly bars), 2025.

» If the market records two consecutive monthly closes above the January high, history shows a strong rally often follows into year-end. This is a purely mechanical setup; without the two closes, the pattern remains dormant. « 

In 2025, we already have one monthly close above the January high [¿?]. If October confirms with a second [¿? would be the third], the trigger will be set. With only November and December remaining, history suggests that these final months could deliver substantial gains, just as in previous “five” years.

Not every “5” year produces a trigger (e.g., 2015, 2005),

but when it does, the outcome has often been significant.

 

The pattern is neither perfect nor guaranteed, but the Dow’s record demonstrates that when it occurs, the probabilities strongly favor a significant year-end advance.

Reference:
Jake Bernstein (October 2, 2025) - Unlocking the Years-Ending-in-5 Market Signal. (video)

Detrended Weekly Seasonal Composite for the S&P 500 from 2001 to 2025.

See also:

Jake Bernstein (2025) - seasonaltrader.com
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 2, 2025) - S&P 500 Year-End Outlook: Strong Seasonal Setup Targets 7100.

Wayne Whaley (September 27, 2025) - S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September.  

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks | Lars von Thienen

The weekly S&P 500 shows that the nominal 180-week cycle, currently at 177 weeks, is in an early topping stage. This long-awaited time cycle has been monitored since the end of 2023 and has been cited as a key driver for the upturn lasting into this window. Now that we have arrived at this point, we need to pay close attention to the shorter-term cycles and technical indicators.

Weekly S&P 500 with nominal 180 weeks / 41-Month Kitchin Cycle topping | October 23, 2024

Before moving to the daily cycle analysis, it is worth noting that the cyclic-tuned RSI indicator has reached the upper band, indicating a "bull exhaustion" mode. This condition can turn within days into a "bulls tired" and/or "bulls exit" state, signaling that we are primed for a longer-term reversal. The same weekly cycles situation can be observed on the NASDAQ.

NASDAQ weekly cycles | October 23, 2024

Let's now examine the daily cycles, starting with the S&P 500 model.

 » The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. «

 S&P 500 daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The main cycles are the 192-day and the harmonic 89-day trading cycles. The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. The cRSI indicator shows we are nearing the upper band, which could also signal a final year-end rally before both daily cycles align with the downward-trending weekly cycle noted earlier. A similar perspective can be observed in the Nasdaq daily data.

Nasdaq Composite daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The shorter-term daily cycles with lengths of 80 and 200 trading days on the Nasdaq model are rolling over now and will likely continue into the end of 2024. These cycles are also coming into alignment with the next long-term downward swing, which is in sync with the long-term cycles shown earlier.

It's worth noting that we're seeing a divergence forming, as the market experienced a clear topping pattern in June of this year: At that time, the composite model peaked while the cRSI was breaking down below the upper band, issuing a sell signal. The price never went back to achieve a higher high, and the cRSI is indicating an even bigger divergence between the price action and the signal line. The technical indicators shown below have been adjusted to the cycles detected and mentioned above. The highlighted red or green shaded areas indicate that the higher timeframe - here the weekly S&P 500 - is also taken into consideration. 

S&P 500 - cRSI cyclic indicator | October 23, 2024

The multi-timeframe cyclic technical indicator is showing a clear divergence between price and the signal. While the weekly chart confirms another overbought situation at the time the divergence signal emerges, this provides technical confirmation of a possible top in place. A similar technical condition can be observed on the NASDAQ.

 

Nasdaq Composite | October 23, 2024

Quoted from:
Lars von Thienen (October 23, 2024) - The next wave on the horizon for the US stock markets – it is time to prepare.

See also:
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.

Sergey Tarassov  (September 8, 2024) - Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025. 

Sergey Tarassov  (June 26, 2024) - 2024 DJIA vs 40 Month and 42 Month Cycles.

Edward R. Dewey (1971) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle in Stocks. 

 

  Carol S. Mull (1989) - The 3 1/3 - Year Kitchin Cycle.

 

Joseph Kitchin (1923) - Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors.

Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices | Richard Smith

 NASDAQ (4-hour closes) - at the top of an 82-day cycle swing.

  E-mini S&P 500 (daily closes) - at the top of an 81-day cycle swing.

S&P 500 (weekly closes) 2017-2024 vs. 180-week cycle composites of all major US stock indices.

Reference:
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities endgame? Cycles are screaming caution! (video)

 

Hurst Cycles Market Update — David Hickson, October 28, 2024.

Hurst Cycles in the S&P 500 — David Hickson, October 9, 2024.

The 18 Year Economic Cycle │Akhil Patel

Akhil Patel was the special guest presenter at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles' June 3 'Masters Working Group' interactive session. Author of 'The Secret Wealth Advantage', Patel discusses how the 18 year cycle affects the markets and how it can transform investing strategies. Patel is one of the world’s leading experts in economic, financial, and property cycles. He has been working for over a decade to produce unique research that combines an in- depth understanding of business, real estate, and stock market cycles. 

 

Reference:
Akhil Patel (June 4, 2024) - Significance of the 18-Year Cycle. (video)

 

See also:
The 18.6 Year Real Estate Cycle.  

2024 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table.

The 500 Year Cycle | Raymond H. Wheeler

The 1000 year cycle tends to break down into halves of about 500 years each. Centering on the dates of 375 BC, 30 AD, 460 AD, 955 AD, and 1475 AD, climate was dry and colder than usual. The warm periods were short and were often disrupted by drops in temperature. Midway between these dates, the warm periods stretched out; the interruptions were not as long, and the cold periods shortened. The result is an intermediate cycle averaging 510 years in length.

 

 

 » Mass migrations were extensive, and all the ancient civilizations collapsed. «

Vandals sacking Rome, 455 AD.

The beginning of the first of these 500-year rhythms marks an important place in the history of climate. Prior to 575 BC, climatic cycles were longer and more extreme than they have been since then. In the two centuries immediately following, from 450 ta 320 BC, it was warm much of the time. Two 100-year cycles were almost fused into one. The cold period between them, at 420 BC, was very short. After that, the cold periods lengthened. By the end of this 500-year period, at the time of Christ, there was an exceptionally long cold period.

The cold phase centering on 460 AD, at the end of the next 500-year cycle, was also exceptionally cold. Mass migrations were extensive, and all the ancient civilizations collapsed. There was a long-term downward trend in rainfall. Although there were long cold phases in the 600s and 700s, they were frequently interrupted by silts to the warm side and did not seem to be exceptionally bad. The cold phases of the 800s and 900s were extremely severe, causing many migrations, primarily from the northern countries — especially when conditions began to deteriorate approaching 955, near the end of the 500-year rhythm.

 

 » Civilizations broke up and new ones took their places. «

 Migrants storming European Union borders, 2024 AD.

Subsequently, temperatures warmed suddenly. The 1000s were so warm that trees grew in Greenland. This was the period when Vikings crossed the Atlantic, One of the most severe hot droughts in history occurred in the 1130s. The 13th century saw a long warm period. Then climate began to deteriorate again. While the 14th century was warm much of the time, there were frequent and sharp drops in temperature; often it was very stormy. During several winters, the straits between Denmark and Sweden froze over solid enough to support horses and sleds, Greenland began to freeze. In the 15th century, there was no long warm period.

The next 500-year rhythm terminated at 1475. Subsequently, temperatures warmed up again. The 17th century was so warm that the next 100-year cycle had but a short cold phase, centering on 1655, and this was quickly interrupted by a shift back to the warm side. During the 19th and 20th centuries, climate deteriorated again.

 

» The 500 year period beginning at 1475 is drawing to a close. «

 Migrants breaching US southern border, 2024 AD.

Events of great importance occur every 500 years. Midway between 575 BC and 460 AD, the Roman Empire began its decline as Christianity rose. There were no strong European civilizations for a long time. On the other hand, there were very strong Asiatic empires such as that of the Huns. Midway between 460 and 1475, in the 9th and 10th centuries, a vast change occurred, again involving mass migrations, These events divided the Middle Ages into two halves. In the first half, there were brilliant empires like those of Justinian with its capital at Constantinople, Charlemagne in the West, and the Arabs in the East. The Arabs moved into Spain and India, developing brilliant civilizations at Cordoba and Bagdad. But all this came to an end. These civilizations broke up and new ones took their places. Following 975, the feudal period developed, with the growth of principalities that were to form modern European states. Amazing empires were built by the Mongols in Asia, the Incas in South America, and the Mayas in Central America. In India and Japan, new empires were born. The Balkans achieved their Golden Ages during this period.

All this came to an end in the 15th century. The Medieval economy, customs, and modes of thought disappeared. With the new 500-year climatic cycle came the Renaissance, the Reformation, and the building of modern nations — first under absolute monarchs, then under constitutional governments. This most recent 500-year cycle has witnessed the awakening of modern art, science, and economics. In these more advanced civilizations, the common people have, for the first time in history, come into their own under democratic political and economic systems.

 » The same types of events occur with almost clock-like regularity. «

The 500 year period beginning at 1475 is drawing to a close. We are now witnessing many of the same types of events that have occurred under similar circumstances with almost clock-like regularity five times before in history. These events are of the utmost significance for the businessman and student of today — and tomorrow.

 

Quoted from:

Raymond H. Wheeler (1943) - The 500 Year Cycle. 

In: Michael G. Zahorchak (Ed. 1983) - Climate, the Key to Understanding Business Cycles: 

With a Forecast of Trends Into the 21st Century.

 

  » A 500-year cycle is now terminating, which belonged to Europe.
The next 500-year cycle will belong to Asia. «
Raymond H. Wheeler, 1951.

See also:

Alexander Dugin (2024) - Construction of Hell in the Modern Era.
Glenn Diesen (2024)  - 500 Years of Western Dominance - What Comes Next.
Raymond H. Wheeler (1943) - The 100 Year Cycle - Climate, Regime Change and War.
Donald A. Bradley (1943) - Cycles Write World History.

Peter Temple (2017) - The Wheel of Time. Raymond H. Wheeler's Drought Clock.

Sunspots, Lunar Cycles and Weather Cycles | Louis M. Thompson

The occurrence of an 18- to 20-year cycle in weather in the U.S. Midwest is no longer controversial. The controversial issue is the cause. This article will present both sides of the issue, and will indicate why we will know more about the cause after the 1990s.

[...] The sunspot cycle has been associated with the “20-year drought cycle” in the western U.S. since about 1909, when A.E. Douglass started publishing his tree-ring studies. This scientist became so well known that he was able to establish the Laboratory for Tree Ring Research in Tuscon, Arizona, in 1938. 

 

[...] The sunspot cycle has averaged about 11 years since 1800. As the sun rotates on its axis, it makes a complete turn in about 27 days. Large and persistent spots appear to move from left to right for about two weeks, disappear, and return after about two weeks. The leading edges of spots or clusters of spots have a negative charge in one 11-year cycle and a positive charge in the next cycle. Hence, the term “double sunspot cycle.”

The conventional wisdom is that the drought cycle of about 20 years occurs near the end of the negative cycle and at the time of low solar activity. The drought periods of the 1910s, 1930s, 1950s, and 1970s occurred at the end of the negative cycle. The drought periods did not consistently follow that pattern from 1800 to 1900, although the severe droughts of the 1820s and 1840s occurred at the end of the negative cycle.

Quoted from:
Louis M. Thompson (1989) - Sunspots and Lunar Cycles: Their Possible Relation to Weather Cycles.
In: Cycles, September/October 1989, Foundation for the Study of Cycles.
 
See also:
William Stanley Jevons (1875) - Sunspots and the Price of Corn and Wheat.

Raymond H. Wheeler (1943) - The 100 Year Cycle - Climate, Regime Change and War.

 Donald A. Bradley (1950) - Cycles Write World History.

Michael G. Zahorchak (1983) - Climate, the Key to Understanding Business Cycles: With a Forecast of Trends Into the 21st Century.
Jasper Kirkby (1998) - Sunspot Cycle Length vs Temperature Anomaly.
Henrik Svensmark (2007) - The Cloud Mystery.
Tom McClellan (2012) - Sunspots - The Real Cause of Higher Grain Prices.
TPR (2016) - Inigo Owen Jones. The Weather Prophet.
Valentina V. Zharkova et al. (2017) - The Heartbeat of the Sun.

 Peter Temple (2017) - The Wheel of Time: Raymond H. Wheeler's Drought Clock.

Peter Temple (2019) - An Introduction to Climate Cycles.

The 18.6 Year Cycle in the General Economy | Louis M. Thompson

I believe there are weather cycles that trigger events in our economy, and I believe there is one weather cycle that is related to the 18.6 year lunar cycle. For that reason, I have prepared a lunar declination chart patterned after Fig. 1 and shown as Fig. 3. If a relationship between the lunar cycle and the weather cycle can be explained, we will gain a real milestone in explaining the business cycle.

 

 

 

[...] We have a 9.3-year cycle in production, which gives rise to a 9.3-year cycle in grain prices. Highest yields have occurred at the time of minimum declination and the four following years. Lowest prices have occurred because of a build-up of supplies, and the low prices have occurred about every 9.3 years and every 18.6 years. Fig. 3 describes the cycle in agriculture better than it does the general economy. Yet, as we look back to the nineteenth century, there were depressions at the time of maximum declination (285°) in every 18.6-year cycle. In this century, our lowest agricultural prices occurred in 1913, 1932, 1950, 1969, and 1987, or every 18.6 years. lt appears that a weather cycle of 18.6 years drives a production cycle of the same length, which drives a price cycle of the same length.

Quoted from:
Louis M. Thompson (1989) - The 18.6-Year Cycle in the General Economy.
In: Cycles, May/June 1989, Foundation for the Study of Cycles.

 

See also:

Edward R. Dewey & Edwin F. Dakin (1947) - The 18.6 Year Real Estate Cycle. 

In: Cycles: The Science of Prediction.

TPR (2022) - Periods When to Make Money. Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low.

Predictable Cycles in Geomagnetic Activity | Theodor Landscheidt

Geomagnetic storms, which are released by energetic solar eruptions, are important geophysical events. Newer results indicate that there is a connection with weather. Figure 1 shows the zonal type of atmospheric circulation as a result of geomagnetic disturbances caused by the sun’s eruptional activity, and meridional circulation related to a lull in geomagnetic activity. This is a permanent feature that regulates the prevalence of warm westerly flow or cool arctic air over Europe and North America. 

 

 

 

 

The bulk flow speed of the solar wind, which is indicative of the energy of eruptional mass ejections and resultant shock waves caused by solar eruptions, is strongly coupled to geomagnetic activity, which in turn seems to be the common factor of a wide variety of terrestrial phenomena.

Quoted from:
Theodor Landscheidt (1989) - Predictable Cycles in Geomagnetic Activity and Ozone Levels.
In: Cycles, November/December 1989, Foundation for the Study of Cycles.

Mini-Crash in Tune with Cosmic Rhythms | Theodor Landscheidt

Solar eruptions and related geomagnetic storms can be predicted by means of major and minor instability events released by special solar systems configurations. Minor instability events occur when the Sun's Center of Mass (CS), the Solar Systems Center of Mass (CM), and Jupiter (JU) - the weighty center of the world of planets - arc in line (JU-CM-CS). Such configurations initiate strong impulses of torque in the Sun's orbital motion about the CM. JU-CM-CS events form cycles with a mean period of 9.275 years, but are subject to considerable variation in wavelength: it can be as short as two years, or as long as 14 years.

 

 

The above chart shows the relationship between the S&P 500's monthly index and Cycles of Minor and Major Solar System Instability Events: The short fat arrows indicate epochs of consecutive JU-CM-CS events that form cycles showing rather different wavelengths. Wide and narrow arrows as well as small arrows represent harmonics of respective cycles specified by indices.Indicators that coincide with maxima of the S&P 500 point upwards, while those that coincide with minima point downwards. After the long fat arrow that marks the epoch of a 'major instability event', the epochs of JU-CM-CS events and the second harmonic (= 1/2) of the respective cycles are correlated with bottoms in the data, and the fourth (= 1/4) and eigth (= 1/8) harmonics with tops. In the current JU-CM-CS cycle - running from October 31, 1982 (= 1982.83), to April 20, 1990 (= 1990.3) - the midpoints between the fourth and eighth harmonics, the sixteenth harmonics, were, in each case, related to bottoms in the data. The chart also shows the cosmic background of the famous 4-Year Cycle, and - this is crucial to predictions - hints to an explanation why it is sometimes longer or shorter. 

The next chart is an extension of the first one. The upper curve represents the DJIA, and its turning points are in phase with the arrows marking epochs of respective harmonics of the JU-CM-CS cycle. The last arrow matches the date of the mini-crash on October 13, 1989 - the biggest plunge of the stock market since the 1987 crash.

 

 

Quoted from:
Theodor Landscheidt (1989) - Mini-Crash in Tune with Cosmic Rhythms.
In: Cycles, November/December 1989, Foundation of the Study of Cycles.

 

See also:

Al Larson (1999) - When a CME hits the Earth's Magnetic Field.
Al Larson (1997) – Energy Flow Theory.
Al Larson (1991) - Lunar Chaos Cycle.
Al Larson (1990) - Solar Tides & Financial Markets.

Cosmic Regulation of Cycles in Nature and Economy | Theodor Landscheidt

Let us try to find cycles in nature that can be understood and predicted - and, in addition, that are connected with human behavior, especially the economy. Planetary tide-generating forces, acting on the Sun, are a promising candidate. Hence, we shall try to find dependable cycles in the tide-generating forces of the planets that are linked to energetic solar eruptions and terrestrial effects, especially in the economy. Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, the so-called tidal planets, can be expected to exert a realizable trigger effect.

 

 

» The golden section seems to be implanted in man, too. Dürer, the famous painter, made a thorough investigation of proportions in the human body and found as many as 25 realizations of the "divine proportion," as the golden section is also called, Is this why there is also psychic response to this proportion? According to H. Read, the golden section has, for centuries, been regarded as a key to the mysteries of art. Aesthetically speaking, it is considered to have the most pleasing proportions. « 

 

 

 » Golden section patterns governing solar eruptions. «

 

 

 » There is a growing body of circumstantial evidence that strong solar eruptions are linked to the tidal cycle. That energetic solar flares have a strong impact on important terrestrial cycles. Hence, the tidal cycle, with an average duration of  118.5 days - equaling 16.9 weeks, or 3.9 months - should have left marks in the records. «

 

 

» My example is a cycle in stock prices which averages 14-3/4 days long, but which proceeds m a hop-skip fashion in waves that are first shorter than the average and then longer than the average, alternately. On the average, the shorter waves run about 13-1/4 days long, the longer waves about 16-1/4 days long... it should be obvious that ... forecasts made on a 13-1/4-, 16-1/4, 13-1/4, 16-1/4-day basis would be vastly superior to those made on a rigid 14-3/4-day basis, even though both time intervals would come out to the same place in the end. You will doubtless have noticed that one long and one short wave together equal 29-1/2 days — the time interval from one new moon to the next. « 

 

 

Quoted from:

Theodor Landscheidt (1990) - Cosmic Regulation of Cycles in Nature and Economy.
In: Proceedings, February 1990, Foundation of the Study of Cycles.

 

See also:

Al Larson (1999) - When a CME hits the Earth's Magnetic Field.
Al Larson (1997) – Energy Flow Theory.
Al Larson (1991) - Lunar Chaos Cycle.
Al Larson (1990) - Solar Tides & Financial Markets.