Showing posts with label FSC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FSC. Show all posts

Friday, May 8, 2026

Solar and Lunar Cycles in Earthquakes | Richard Pasichnyk

Today's theories that involve the mechanisms behind "continental drift" or plate tectonics are insufficient to explain all the observations. For one, convection cells as hypothesized do not work. As numerous scientists espouse, present theory does not explain the position of the ridges through time, conditions surrounding subduction zones, rotations of plates, and so forth. Furthermore, the Earth's core is not as theorized, and it is purported to generate convection cells.
 
Solar and Lunar Cycles in Earthquakes: An Electrostatic Trigger.
 
Unexpectedly, most plates are in a state of compression, except Africa, which is under tension. Present theory insists on tension at plate edges where mountains form, not midplate, as observations indicate. Another contradiction is the "jigsaw" Earth, where plates are made up of pieces that came from elsewhere. For example, Florida and coastal New England were part of South America, parts of Newfoundland were once part of Georgia, Nova Scotia was part of Africa, Yucatan was once part of the Mississippi Valley, and so on. These and numerous other facts appear to call for new theories about plate tectonics, which is the intent of this article.
» A maximum in earthquakes occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity, particularly after solar flares. The Sun’s retrograde motion is linked to earthquakes and other geophysical phenomena. « 
Solar Trigger
Earthquakes are correlated with solar activity. Solar activity as indicated by sunspots, radio noise, and geomagnetic indices play a significant role. A maximum in earthquakes occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity, particularly after solar flares. The Sun's retrograde motion is linked to earthquakes and other geophysical phenomena, including climate.


There is a 22-year solar cycle in San Andreas fault earthquakes and an 11-year solar period in large earthquakes in Southern California. A maximum in quakes occurs shortly after an epoch of least sunspot frequency in some regions. One half of a solar cycle, 5.5 years, was observed for quakes in the Far East, with both earthquake and solar peaks during 1947, 1958, and 1969.

Strong earthquakes take place when the Earth crosses the central meridian of the Sun, and this knowledge has been used to successfully predict quakes to some degree. Variations in gravity, earthquake energy, and solar activity were correlated in another study. Solar activity and quakes are linked in numerous studies, but, for the most part, gravitational models do not work.

Lunar Trigger
Many continental drift theorists dismiss lunar effects because tides have little effect on their quake mechanism. They criticize any correlation between maximum global tidal forces and quake regions where local tides are not at a maximum, or can even be at a minimum. Meanwhile, studies of a lunar-phase trigger in 21 earthquakes shows that 14 occurred at the quarter moon, five at full moon, and two followed a lunar eclipse.

Some scientists claim the effect is gravitational. In fact, one study of 2,000 quakes demonstrated they took place at times when tidal forces were over the epicenter of deep-focus earthquakes. Earthquakes occur more often when the Sun and Moon are in opposition (opposite sides of the earth) or in conjunction (in line on the same side).

Shallow-focus earthquakes and moonquakes vary in concert for the years 1971 to 1976. Unusually large quakes in the period 1950-1965 were remarkably numerous for the twentieth century. Though a lunar trigger is evident, gravitational effects alone are inadequate to explain the results, as Shirley states:
Some ambiguity arises when we attempt to interpret this result within the framework of conventional gravitational geophysical models... If the pattern found is due to some physical cause (as opposed to 'statistical accident') then this would seem to raise the question of the adequacy of the traditional model. There is reason to believe (on relativistic grounds) that the tidal stresses may not be the only significant stresses of external gravitational origin applied to the Earth... The underlying physical processes remain obscure.
Other correlations exist between lunar phase and earthquakes. A study of Nevada earthquakes reveals a close connection with variations of the tide-generating forces. The active periods are 0-2 days of closest approach (perigee), 0-3 days of conjunction and opposition (syzygy), and 0-3 days of 90° (quadrature) with the Earth. These active times are not completely in accord with the gravitational effects, but indicate a delay of up to three days. There is a correlation of earthquakes with lunar phase and the passage of the Moon through the area (local meridian), and also with a change in the polarity of the Sun's Interplanetary Magnetic Field.

Lunar-solar periods in quakes along the Pacific coast were correlated to the full or new moon near sunrise or sunset, and also with the fortnightly ocean tides, which are regulated by lunar tides. Likewise, microearthquake frequencies near Alaska's St. Augustine Volcano are correlated with oceanic tides. Undoubtedly, the gravitational effects are too weak, but the correlations show that there is a lunar trigger.

The mechanism is suggested with the understanding that there is a lunar influence on the occurrence of aurora, or the Northern Lights. As will be shown, the influence is electrostatic, with the Moon triggering cascades of particle flow and changing the contour of electromagnetic fields (i.e., bow waves, plasma torus, potential gradients, electrostatic repulsion, etc.).
FIG. 1. Seasonal occurrence of earthquakes. Histogram of 562 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 and greater in the Northern Hemisphere, 1505-1976, and Northern California, 1901-1976. Dates were brought to the nearest mid-month (15th to 15th) to show seasonal trends in relation to solstices and equinoxes. Peaks are evident in winter and around the vernal equinox, with secondary peaks around the autumnal equinox and the solstices. A lesser set of data (62 earthquakes) indicated a 6-month shift in the Southern Hemisphere, as could be predicted. 
Magnetic and Electrostatic Forces
All materials in nature are magnetic, and many tectonic features are the result of the magnetic properties of minerals. Materials are attracted or repelled by magnetic fields, but, in most cases, the forces are extremely small. Another force exerted on minerals is electrostatic, particularly if the force changes with time.
» Lunar-solar periods in quakes along the Pacific coast were correlated to the full or new moon near sunrise or sunset, and also with the fortnightly ocean tides, which are regulated by lunar tides. « 
Electrostatic forces can be purely repulsive, so that two bodies always repel, regardless of their relative orientations – such as the two sides of a ridge. The ocean floor and ocean water, including its life forms (organic compounds), tend to meet the characteristics of certain classes of magnetic minerals (diamagnetic and antiferromagnetic). The crust and the Earth's interior tend to meet the characteristics of other classes of magnetic materials (paramagnetic and ferromagnetic). Both share a fifth class (ferrimagnetic), particularly with regard to the mantle (garnet). This class of material produces an axis like that observed along the ridge (uniaxial anisotropy, not perpendicular anisotropy), and this material (basalt or gabbro, i.e., garnet) exudes at the ridges.

These class distinctions in the magnetic properties of minerals allow for the development of ridge systems and subduction zones in the oceans, while the crust experiences mountain building (faulting, etc.) and so forth. In fact, electrostatic levitation is being employed in physics for frictionless transport of monorails and other devices. Electrostatic forces can overcome gravitational forces. In plate tectonics, the levitation is vertical, which allows the ridges to spread and plate-plate boundaries to exist without large amounts of drag.

Drill hole research near the San Andreas fault at Cajon Pass reveals the absence of large amounts of drag at plate-plate boundaries because of electrostatic effects. Furthermore, computer models of plate tectonics demonstrate that the mechanism requires the addition of other minor forces.
 
 
Aurora-like Glows
Aurora-like glows often accompany earthquakes. One theory claims this effect may be due to quartz microcrystals in rock under high pressure. A fairly high proportion of crystals must be present, but this, in itself, is not sufficient. The crystals must be arranged in the same direction, not randomly, so that the electricity produced by one is not cancelled out by another. Only then, with sufficient pressure, will an electrical discharge be produced. This is known as the piezoelectric effect.

However, this theory is inapplicable in at least some situations. These aurora-like glows have also been observed over the sea. The sea floor is not solid, and currents constantly re-arrange the crystals. Sea water is high in conductivity, which would neutralize or buffer the forces. Earthquake lights are most frequent when the Moon has passed its closest approach, and thereby occur during a decrease in the lunar tide. If the piezoelectric effect were producing these lights, the opposite would be true; the lights would occur during an increase of lunar tide.

One report correlates luminous seas and earthquakes. This observation cannot be explained by either the bioluminescence theory nor the piezoelectric effect, but can be readily explained by an electrostatic model of earthquakes (energetic particles producing thermoluminescence). There are also many lighted-displays that quartz could never produce.

Other Phenomena
Spectacular ostentations and a variety of wonders are commonly a part of the earthquake scene. Rain attended by thunder, lightning, and wind often occurs before, during, or after the shock. Globes of fire, illuminations, extraordinary lights, and ball lightning, often claimed to be meteors, are seen. Other associations are dark fogs, red and blue suns, and gray and red lurid skies, to name just a few phases of the colored atmosphere. The atmosphere also manifests aurora-like incandescence, fire, smoke, electrical activity, cold air, tempestuous winds, and/or total calm. Added to the list is an array of indescribable sounds or total silence.

Peculiarities (anomalies) in Earth currents (geoelectricity and telluric currents) near an earthquake's epicenter demonstrate that electrostatic effects occur prior to the events. Sparking, electric shocks, and the mutual attraction and/or repulsion of objects also show these electrostatic effects.

Mountain lights have been seen in the Andes, Alps, Mexico, and Lapland, even under cloudless skies and very low humidity. The effect was not lightning, but a potential gradient. These mountain lights are sometimes visible far out at sea. The Andes is described as a giant lightning rod, and has a constant glow from late spring to fall, with occasional outbursts—particularly during earthquakes, such as the great quake of August 1906. This aurora-like glow is noted on other mountains, as well.

No earthquake exhibits all of these somewhat ambiguously described displays, but each occurrence adds another detail to the potpourri of facts that indicate electrostatic effects play their part. Illustrating the effects of this new understanding of the Earth, we find correlations between earthquake activity and the Chandler Wobble, the Moon's position, and solar activity.

Weather Phenomena and Particle Flow
Pressure waves high in the atmosphere due to shifts in the ionosphere take place just prior to earthquakes. These so-called "ionoquakes" are a somewhat indirect observation of particle flow. Through ionization, particle flow would create a vacuum and thereby affect weather with pressure changes, storms, and winds. For four to six weeks before earthquake activity, large, recurring patterns of high pressure develop off the coast of California. High pressure patterns even outline the San Andreas fault hundreds of miles off the coast.

The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) sector boundary crossings (SBC) cause changes in the Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere. Enhanced precipitation of energetic electrons take place as the Earth's magnetic field is disturbed. The effects include changes in wind direction and the size of storms (Vorticity Area Index) about four days before and after the SBC, with the greatest effect in winter. The SBC also is correlated with lightning and thunderstorms, which display a maximum in winter. Large changes in conductivity and electric field variations occur that appear to be global (Arctic, Antarctic, and mid-latitudes).
 
» Analyzing nearly a century of data, our results reveal an increased likelihood of
earthquakes following geomagnetic storms, particularly 27–28 days afterward. « 
Hongyan Chen et. al., 2025.

The IMF and geomagnetic field (GMF) interact to display a 12-month wave, with a maximum at the vernal equinox, and are the "result of a common cause." Meanwhile, geomagnetic disturbances influence monthly variations in the air-earth current and mean temperatures in 32 U.S. stations. Geomagnetic storms alter surface atmospheric pressure and the development of storms.

Numerous studies show that weather displays more deep-seated effects in winter. This includes the positively charged superbolts, ten to one hundred times stronger than normal lightning, which occur near Japan mostly in winter, with a peak around the vernal equinox.

A maximum in thunderstorms occurs three days after solar events. The electrical potential of the lower troposphere and radionuclides show the greatest fluctuations three to four days after solar eruptions (especially hydrogen-alpha flares). Likewise, geomagnetic storms bring alterations in four to eight days.

Together, these weather phenomena indicate the characteristics of particle flow, which has a mechanism with a delay of three to four days. Because of IMF/GMF interactions, it peaks in winter and the equinox (also solstices). These weather phenomena suggest what is evident in earthquake occurrence as well.

Seasonal and Diurnal Occurrence
The seasonal occurrence of earthquakes indicates a solar-terrestrial linkage. A study of earthquakes along the San Andreas fault prior to the April 18, 1906, San Francisco earthquake show the majority took place around the vernal equinox in spring, with a second peak during winter.
FIG. 2. Lunar periods of earthquakes. Histogram of the same earthquakes used in Figure 1, but plotted according to lunar phase, when data permitted. Peaks are evident for mid-phase, the 24-hour period between three and four days after a lunar phase, and for the quarter phase.
Another study displayed a daily, or diurnal, peak in quake occurrence in some areas. A nocturnal maximum peaks around midnight. In Japan, Italy, and other countries, there is also a noon maximum. The noon maximum is identified with summer maximum annually, and the midnight maximum with winter maximum annually.

Noon and summer quakes are associated with an elevation of the crust and atmosphere; midnight and winter quakes are associated with a depression. Noon and summer appear to generate the most destructive shocks, and midnight and winter generate slight or moderate quakes in this one study.

Another analysis of 15,325 events shows a higher occurrence at night and in summer. Seasonal peaks, and daily peaks of noon and midnight, are beyond the scope of gravitational theory and plate tectonics as they are presently described.

Radiowave and Isotope Fluctuation
Magnetic fluctuations and radio emissions at or near the quake area are frequent. Changes in magnetic field characteristics during and after quakes can be local or even Earth wide. Radio emissions can be caused by electric currents due to particle flow along magnetic field lines. For example, radio emissions during the Chilean quake of May 1960 were picked up by cosmic radio noise monitors across the U.S..

Radio waves are noted to experience a sudden drop one to six days prior to an earthquake. Electrical conductivity increases (as the rocks are stressed) just prior to the earthquake, and short pulses of radio signals (time-varying acceleration) are observed. Magnetic fluctuations and radio emissions are indicative of particle flow and fields not recognized by present theory.

» Solar wind speed causes more dynamic pressure on Earth's magnetosphere
and is the physical mechanism which increases the number of earthquakes. « 
Marilia Tavares and  Anibal Azevedo, 2011.

Isotope fluctuations are another indication of electrostatic influences. Coseismic changes in radon concentrations in groundwater took place with earthquakes of 6.0 magnitude and greater in Japan. In the period from January 1984 to July 1988, eleven coseismic changes displayed downward spike-like decreases. The mechanism is unknown, and present physical theory offers no explanation.

Helium isotopes (³He) are generated in the oceans at the ridges in quantities about eight times higher than in the atmosphere. This indicates there is heat flux and helium from an unknown source. The source and mechanism is an electrostatic particle flow along a field line, and the particles are helium nuclei, protons, neutrons, electrons and others (typical of hydrogen plasma at relativistic velocities).

Animal Behavior
Unusual animal behavior preceding earthquakes is so consistent it has been used to predict them. In 1975, a quake in Haicheng, China, was successfully predicted partially as a result of this knowledge. An illustrated booklet, Earthquakes, compiled by the Seismological Office, Tientsin, China, says both historical and recent surveys prove animals react before the event. Additional evidence from the Chinese indicates that 58 species are aware of approaching earthquakes, and, undoubtedly, there are more.

For example, a Japanese scientist noted that quakes in the Idai peninsula were correlated with the number of fish caught near the end of Sagami Bay. In the spring of 1930, swarms of quakes hit Ito on the east coast of the peninsula. It was around that time that abundant catches of horse mackerel and other fish took place at the Sigedera fishing grounds. On the other end of the biological spectrum, falls of camellia flowers also were correlated with quakes by this same scientist.
» Unusual animal behavior preceding earthquakes is so consistent it has been used to predict them. The reason for this type of behavior has most scientists baffled. «
Even we humans are affected with disorientation, giddiness, nausea, uneasiness, and feelings of impending calamity prior to and during a quake. Scientists suggest this is the result of human sensitivity to ground waves, and to electrostatic effects (including the Serotonin Irritation Syndrome) and electromagnetic forces.

Knowledge of this sort extends back at least to the time of the naturalist and writer, Pliny the Elder (1st century). He designated animal response as one of four signs of a threatening earthquake. The U.S. Department of the Interior compiled 33 independent reports from various parts of the world.

The reason for this type of behavior has most scientists baffled. One researcher states what could be predicted from an electrostatic trigger: "The ground gives off static electricity before an earthquake." In addition, increases in the intensity of Earth currents (telluric) are considered one of the warning signs or precursors of an impending quake. The physiological effects on animals also may result from air ions offsetting biochemistry (Serotonin Irritation Syndrome). The evidence is strongly in favor of an electrostatic trigger for earthquakes, though no such models exist.
 

A New Model of the Earth
A global network of earthquakes suggests a new model of the Earth that includes electrostatic effects. Changes in the Earth's rotation, or length of day, are correlated with earthquakes. Also, the Sun's center, or the solar system's center of mass—which is determined when Jupiter is in conjunction with another of the large planets—has a triggering effect on earthquakes. This has led scientists to suggest a solar-terrestrial linkage.
 
Solar flares abruptly change the Earth's rate of rotation. This, as is claimed, could trigger earthquakes. There is a 120-day oscillation in the length of day, atmospheric zonal circulation, solar activity, the IMF, and the GMF. A correlation between solar motion, geophysical phenomena, and climate exists as well.
 
Different earthquake belts have nearly common active periods, which indicates they are strongly coupled on a global scale. The number of moderately large earthquakes decrease when the number of very large earthquakes increase, which is "suggestive of a causal relationship between these two groups of quakes."
 
Such an observation could be predicted if there were a global system triggered by varying amounts of particle flow and an electrostatic mechanism. Likewise, there is a remarkable similarity in curves of the annual number of large quakes and large intermediate and deep-focus earthquakes. Furthermore, there are space-time correlations between gravity, solar activity, quake energy, and the Earth's crust.
 

Chandler Wobble
The Chandler Wobble is a 14-month period in the motion of the pole of the Earth's rotation—something like the wobble of a spinning top as it loses momentum. A study of 234 quakes for the period 1901 to 1970 demonstrates that their occurrence closely resembles the curve of the Wobble. Polar tides and seismic energy are correlated in such a way that a relationship exists between polar motion and quakes, which the researchers claim is due to a "common excitation source."
» Evidence indicates an electrostatic trigger in earthquake occurrence. A new model of the Earth seems to be called for. «
The seismicity of major earthquake belts is correlated to amplitudes of the Chandler Wobble, changes in rotational velocity of the Earth, and the drift of the geomagnetic field for the years 1901 to 1964. The conclusion is "The patterns which emerged suggest that all of these diverse phenomena are related."

Earthquakes are correlated to the Wobble's sudden change (1957-1967), but earthquakes do not contribute any significant energy to the Wobble. The amplitude of the Chandler Wobble is correlated to quakes of magnitudes between 7.0 and 7.5, with especially good correlation with deep and intermediate quakes (≥ 7.0 and 70 km depth). The hypothesis seems inescapable: "there may well be a deeper mechanism which both triggers earthquakes and maintains the Chandler Wobble."

Evidence indicates an electrostatic trigger in earthquake occurrence. A new model of the Earth seems to be called for. Plate motions follow solar activity as observed at 71 stations around the world. The plates move back and forth while the 11-year cycle goes up and down. In combination, these facts suggest a global system of fields that regulate plate motion and that are interrelated with the IMF, the GMF, and solar activity.
Electric Universe Geology suggests new theoretical pathways for understanding Earth, as well as other planets and moons. 
An Electrostatic Trigger
Evidence indicates an electrostatic trigger in earthquake occurrence. The solar wind provides some of the particles in solar plasma, and the Moon triggers particle cascades along field lines. If these factors are at work, predictions can be made. The equinoxes are times of greater interaction between IMF and GMF. Lunar phases and mid-phases (observations indicate a mechanism with a 3-4 day delay) are times of greater probability for triggering particle cascades.

Figures 1 and 2 show the influence of these factors in histograms compiled from the analysis of 562 earthquakes. Table 1 lists the ten worst earthquakes in history, along with these factors in relation to their occurrence. The present level of solar activity is at a maximum and should increase earthquake occurrence.
 
TABLE 1. The Ten Worst Earthquakes in History*
* According to lives lost.
 
A new model of the Earth seems to be called for. There is extensive evidence for this conclusion that is beyond the scope of this paper—for example, relationships with hydrocarbon deposits, heavy metal ore deposits, weather centers, and gravity anomalies. This field system is a result of the condensing planetary nebula, and thereby a solar-terrestrial linkage will be apparent in observations.

As a result, gravitational effects are not the only influence; electrostatic time-varying effects also play a role. That is, relativistic physics, not Newtonian physics, are involved. Gravitational forces are indistinguishable from the mechanical forces in a concept called the Einstein Equivalence Principle. Gravitational mass is identical with inertial mass, and mass is equivalent to energy. The forces were present during the formation of the Earth and guided the alignment of minerals. It is a case of the weak and electromagnetic forces—the electroweak force—controlling gravitational forces.

Evidence indicates interaction between gravitational and electromagnetic fields in accord with general relativity. Non-gravitational forces are evident in the Earth-Moon system, and gravity has been observed to shift during solar eclipses, such as on June 30, 1954. The conclusion of the physicist who performed the original experiment has been relatively ignored. Such observations, he concludes, can be accounted for "only by the existence of a new field."
 

Richard Michael Pasichnyk (b. 1950) has taken a completely interdisciplinary approach to more than 17 years of study in the physical sciences and history to uncover the underlying basis of cycle synchronicity and unified theory. He also is editor of an information-based public service organization.
Quoted from:
Richard Pasichnyk (1990) - Solar and Lunar Cycles in Earthquakes: An Electrostatic Trigger.
In: 
Cycles magazine, Foundation for the Study of Cycles, November/December 1990 issue, pp. 321–327.
 
See also:

Thursday, January 29, 2026

2026 Market Forecast: S&P 500, Crude, Notes, Gold, and Bitcoin | Bill Sarubbi

US Stock Market Outlook and Q1 Correction
The equity markets appear to be nearing a significant peak, with a forecasted correction for the S&P 500 expected to intensify during the first week of February. Despite this initial volatility, the year-end target for the S&P remains 10% to 12% higher than current levels around 6,950. 
 
In November, the 15-month midterm election cycle will be the primary rally driver. 
 
Sarubbi's market summary indicates a Q1 correction in the S&P, with the S&P expected to rise by 10%-12% in 2026. This will be followed by a trading range in Q2 and Q3, and a rally in Q4. November marks the beginning of the 15-month mid-term election year cycle. Oil is anticipated to rally, and foreign markets are projected to extend their outperformance.
 
Regarding the US stock market, there is a short-term cycle that runs into the last week of January, which expires just as a weak short-term cycle begins in the first week of February. February and March are likely to be weak. There will be a Q1 correction, likely starting in February, with Q2 and Q3 forming a trading range. Q4 in any year has been bullish, and the 15 months beginning with the mid-term elections have been one of the most bullish time intervals.
 
On the topic of bubbles, Sarubbi notes that they usually do not occur in years ending in a 6. Most crises have occurred in the autumn of years ending in 7 or 8. For instance, on August 15, 1971, Nixon closed the gold window. On March 31, 1980, Carter signed the Monetary Control Act, which enabled the Fed to monetize any paper. With few limits on what can be monetized, the Fed could theoretically inflate the currency to infinity. Consequently, there is no limit to price increases.
 
Bill Sarubbi expects the S&P 500 in 2026 to unfold in three phases: a weak first quarter, a sideways trading range through the spring and summer, and a powerful rally in the fourth quarter driven by the historically potent 15-month midterm election cycle.
 
2026 Composite Cycle for the S&P 500.
 
Sarubbi's "Composite Cycle for the S&P 500 in 2026" begins at a high point in January 2026, followed by a general downward trend with minor oscillations through February and March. It experiences a modest recovery in April, and further undulations downward through late June. After a recovery into late-August early-September, a more pronounced decline occurs into a late-September early-October low of the year. From this trough, the US stock market ascends sharply through November and December 2026, continuing its upward trajectory into January 2027.
 

Above is the DJIA's expected return of all years ending in 6 that have also been 2 years past an election since 1885. Keep in mind that the 15-month period that follows the mid-term elections has been one of the most bullish time intervals. It appears logical to expect a Q1 correction followed by a trading range in the first 3 quarters of 2026.  
 
Long-Term Cycles and Inflationary Pressures
Current economic conditions mirror the 54-year cycle last seen in 1972, characterized by persistent price inflation, social unrest, and rising interest rates. This environment of "excess liquidity" is evidenced by record-breaking prices for collectibles and comic books. Furthermore, the removal of the gold window in 1971 and subsequent monetary acts have removed traditional limits on currency monetization, explaining gold’s ascent toward the $5,000 mark.

Sector Rotation and Technology Moderation
A primary theme for 2026 is the transition of leadership away from the "Magnificent Seven" and toward undervalued sectors. While technology will remain relevant, leadership is shifting to names like Intel and Micron rather than the overextended market leaders. 
 

Capital is expected to flow into healthcare, base materials, and emerging markets, the latter of which are breaking a 15-year relative downtrend against US equities.

Bullish Outlook for Energy and Oil
Oil presents a compelling "witches' brew" of bullish indicators: strong technical support between $50 and $55, extreme bearish sentiment, and favorable seasonal cycles. 
 
 Monthly Crude Oil Cycle.

A rally is anticipated through June, with stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB) showing classic technical breakout patterns. This sector stands to benefit most from the rotation of funds out of high-priced mega-cap tech.

Fixed Income, Gold, and Bitcoin
Fixed income remains unattractive, with the 10-year note facing strong seasonal headwinds in March. 
 
10-Year Notes monthly histogram.
 

US Notes are at the start of one of the most bearish weeks in any year. Over the last 43 years, price has fallen 81% of the time from the 19th through the 25th. See the daily histogram of expected return for December above. 
 
Gold.

Gold has exceeded recent objectives but is entering a seasonally weak period through March, with a projected short-term top near February 20. The gold cycle has peaked and the gold price has given an unmistakable signal. First, the rate of change became unsustainable. Then, in only 2 days, price has retraced 50% of its move from the October low. 
 
 
The gold cycle has peaked and the gold price has given an unmistakable signal. First, the rate of change became unsustainable. Then, in only 2 days, price has retraced 50% of its move from the October low. It must fall to $4050 to retrace 38.2% of its entire 2025 move. The peak occurs on a day when a new Fed chairman has been announced. The new Fed chief has indicated that he will not continue to inflate the currency. The monthly cycle does not show a meaningful low until July.  
 
 Bitcoin.

Conversely, Bitcoin continues to adhere closely to its cyclical data, suggesting a potential rally toward the $110,000 to $115,000 range by April.

 

See also: 
Bill Sarubbi (b. 1949), writing under the pen name Bill Meridian, is an American financial strategist, author, and software developer who pioneered the integration of mundane astrology into institutional investment. After earning both a BS in Banking and an MBA in Corporate Finance from New York University in 1972, he launched a dual career on Wall Street while beginning his formal astrological studies under Charles A. Jayne, Jr., one of the leading astrologers of the last century. Their teacher-student relationship and friendship lasted until Jayne’s death in 1985. Sarubbi transformed the field in 1983 by designing AstroAnalyst, the first software to apply computer processing to financial astrology. His technical innovations—including efficiency tests and composite cycles—remain foundational to modern platforms such as Timing Solution. Parallel to his financial pursuits, he spent seven years in New York City training as a bioenergetic therapist under Dr. John Pierrakos. From 1990 to 2004, Sarubbi was based in Abu Dhabi (UAE), where he served as a Technology Fund Manager and Strategist for the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA). During his tenure at the sovereign wealth fund, he also sat on its Currency Hedging Committee. Throughout this period, he maintained his pen identity as "Bill Meridian," advising legendary trader Frankie Joe and authoring the mundane and stocks column for Dell Horoscope for 30 years. A certified expert in Uranian and Vibrational Astrology (Hamburg School), Sarubbi has authored several definitive texts, including 'Planetary Stock Trading' and 'The Predictive Power of Eclipse Paths.' Since 2000, he has operated Cycles Research Investments from Vienna, Austria, providing market advisory and fund management services that blend rigorous economic cycle analysis with astrological forecasting. A member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) since 1972, he currently serves as a member of its board of directors.

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

On Gold, EU Capital Controls, CBDCs, Cryptos, and Stocks | Martin Armstrong

The Gold price is driven by geopolitical uncertainty, not peace expectations, with central banks acquiring it for its neutral status against collapsing European sovereign debt. European investors buying gold while leaders escalate Russia tensions create a self-reinforcing fear cycle. This risk has prompted major European institutions to relocate gold reserves to New York and Singapore, anticipating the historical certainty of European capital controls during crises.

Gold's powerful rally is terminal, completing Wave (3) past $4,380 just as Market Vane's Bullish 
Consensus hits a historic extreme of 95, signaling an imminent, major corrective Wave (4).

Evidence of control includes the new mandatory bank account declarations—the initial phase of preventing capital flight. Further anticipated steps include regulating cryptocurrencies and implementing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) by January 2026, likely justified by a false flag event. Existing withdrawal limits (e.g., in Spain) confirm the focus on financial control, a practice rooted in historical currency cancellations and asset restrictions during past European crises.

Dow valuation relative to gold now below mid-1960s.

The Socrates model forecasts a panic cycle in 2026 with intensified conflict and Euro stress, marked by a dangerous, unprecedented convergence of the international conflict and civil unrest cycles. This systemic risk is compounded by the destabilizing effect of Europe's large, unsupported migrant population. Economically, interest rates will rise, particularly in Europe, as geopolitical risk increases debt service costs. The unsustainable US debt trajectory confirms the sovereign debt crisis will lead to government failure when debt cannot be rolled over.

Investors are now in a "private wave," prioritizing private assets over government solvency. The primary stock market bubble risk lies in AI stocks, not blue-chip indices used by institutions for large-scale capital parking. Consequently, "smart money" is relocating capital to the United States (equities and real estate). This strategic move anticipates the CBDC's ultimate function: an impenetrable barrier to capital outflows, reflective of Europe's controlling political philosophy.

 
Larry Williams' outlook for gold in Q4 of 2025.

The EU planned to launch the digital euro in October 2025. Now it’s delayed to 2029, officially for “technical reasons,” 
but actually after Trump banned the Fed from issuing digital legal tender, effectively sidelining the ECB too.

See also:
David Hickson (October 20, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500 and Bitcoin; Fo
cus on Gold

Thursday, October 2, 2025

Unlocking the "Years-Ending-in-5" Market Signal | Jake Bernstein

One of the most reliable patterns I’ve observed in markets appears in years ending in the number five. It is simple: take the January high of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If the market records two consecutive monthly closes above that high, history shows a strong rally often follows into early December or even year-end. This is a purely mechanical setup; without the two closes, the pattern remains dormant.

Detrended Weekly Seasonal Composite Future chart for the S&P 500 from 1942 to 2024.

Looking back, the results are striking. In 1995, the trigger led to a more than twenty percent advance. 1985 produced roughly fifteen percent, 1975 seven to ten percent, and even 1965, after a brief pullback, ended higher by about five percent. Earlier examples include 1955 with fifteen percent, and 1935 and 1945 each with nearly thirty percent rallies. Not every “five” year triggers the setup—as in 2005 and 2015—but when it does, the outcome has consistently favored the bulls.

 Dow Jones (monthly bars), 2025.
» If the market records two consecutive monthly closes above the January high, history shows a strong rally often follows into year-end. This is a purely mechanical setup; without the two closes, the pattern remains dormant. « 
In 2025, we already have one monthly close above the January high [¿?]. If October confirms with a second [¿? would be the third], the trigger will be set. With only November and December remaining, history suggests that these final months could deliver substantial gains, just as in previous “five” years.

Not every “5” year produces a trigger (e.g., 2015, 2005),
but when it does, the outcome has often been significant.
 
The pattern is neither perfect nor guaranteed, but the Dow’s record demonstrates that when it occurs, the probabilities strongly favor a significant year-end advance.

Reference:
Jake Bernstein (October 2, 2025) - Unlocking the Years-Ending-in-5 Market Signal. (video)

Detrended Weekly Seasonal Composite for the S&P 500 from 2001 to 2025.

See also: