Two Years of +20% Gains for the S&P 500: What's Next? │ Michael Hartnett

Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, notes that the S&P 500 is on track for a +20% return in two consecutive years. This has occurred only four times in the past 150 years: 1927/28, 1935/36, 1954/55, and 1995/96. 

 

Historical analysis of returns in the following two years reveals two key insights:

1. The S&P 500 is likely to experience another significant double-digit move in 2025.
2. Falling bond yields may serve as the "secret sauce" that helps the S&P 500 avoid the substantial reversals seen in 1929/30, 1937/38, and 1956/57, potentially catalyzing further significant equity gains, similar to what occurred in 1997/98.

Michael Hartnett (BofA), November 22, 2024. 

 

Decennial Cycle: Average annual change in the DJIA (1881-2023).

 

 Ned Davis Research.

See also:

Tom DeMark (November 15, 2024) - US Stock Market Nearing a Top Similar to 1929.

Budget Deficit Bullish for S&P 500 and Gold | Tom McClellan

The final stats are in for fiscal year 2024, and the federal debt in the U.S. grew by $2.297 trillion versus a year earlier, and as of September 30, 2024, the total debt stood at $35.465 trillion. 

 

[...] A rising debt load is a horrible thing, but it is a bullish thing. And trying to pay down the debt is a bearish thing. [...] And deficits are also really bullish for gold too.

 

Reference:

Tom McClellan (October 04, 2024) - Deficits Are Horrible, But They Are Bullish.

Seasonality Map for Currencies, Stocks, Bonds & Commodities

This heat map shows the average historical % change in price each month over the last 20 years. 

(Percentages updated for 2023).

Reference:

Markets Made Clear.

See also:
Equity Clock.
Seasonal Charts.

Insider Week.

Moore Research Center.

 

Avoiding Default By Destroying Others | The War-And-Pillage Business Model

The US started talking again about a possible default. However, while a default is technically possible, it is unlikely for now. A default would have immediate severe consequences for the US themselves. Their entire war economy would collapse. And why default now? So far continued destruction of other countries has proved to be a lucrative alternative, attracted investors and directed gigantic capital flows to the US.

 

 Wonders of a War-And-Pillage Economy.

Since 2008 full spectrum assault missions on European Union countries turned out to be nothing short of a success story for the US. In dollar terms the EU economy is now down to 65% of the United States economy. That’s down from 91% in 2013. American GDP per capita is now more than twice that of the EU, and the gap continues to widen. However, now one dollar is worth 50 cents in 2020 dollars. And why exactly is 2013, the year before the US Maidan coup in Ukraine, important? Because in 2013 the US systematically began to use sanctions mechanisms to deprive the European Union countries of cheap Russian energy and to force them to break off beneficial trade and projects with Russia and China. Capital fleeing from the EU to the US was triggered and has been increasing ever since. The US is perfectly content with the now rapidly de-industrializing, US energy-dependent, asset-stripped and broke European Union and will abuse it as long as it lasts. 

RAND Corporation (Jan 25, 2022) - Crush Europe and Strengthen the US.

 

So this time around, which are the remaining wealthy, long-term strategically expendable, docile and suicidal vassal states expected to finance the US for just a little bit longer: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE? Taiwan, South Korea, Japan? In reality the recently near global US dollar hegemony shrunk by half a planet since February 2022. Destroying and plundering Russia, China and Iran remains the US' only goal and hope. Whatever it takes. For the universal triumph, to the full satisfaction and for the eternal glory of their chosen masters. Or, under certain circumstances, God willing, war and regime change in the US will soon mess up those ambitions, as L. David Linsky suggests.

 

April 27, 2023 – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking plainly about sensitive issues, sanctions against Russia, 

shrunken labor force, high inflation, minuscule growth, ample support to Ukraine, his interest rates-scheming for 2023, etc.

in a real Russian television interview with pranksters Vovan and Lexus, who posed as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. 

» O my people, your guides mislead you and they have swallowed up the course of your paths. «
Prophet Isaiah, Holy Bible.

 

 » Know your enemy. «
Sun Tzu, The Art of War.

The BRICS+ Currency | James G. Rickards

A new BRICS+ currency will be announced in Durban, South Africa, at the annual BRICS Leaders’ Summit Conference on August 22–24, 2023 [...] In all likelihood, the new BRICS+ currency would not be available in the form of paper notes for use in everyday transactions. It would be a digital currency on a permissioned ledger maintained by a new BRICS+ financial institution with encrypted message traffic to record payments due or owing by participating parties. (This is not a cryptocurrency because it is not decentralized, not maintained on a blockchain and not open to all parties without approval.)

BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, representing about 27% of the world's land
surface, 41% of the global population, and 32% of global GDP PPP.
The most important development in the BRICS system concerns the expansion of BRICS membership.
This has led to the informal adoption of the name BRICS+ for the expanded organization.
Currently 10 additional nations formally applied for membership:
Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
24 countries have expressed interest in joining the BRICS:
Afghanistan, Angola, Belarus, Comoros, Cuba, D.R. Congo, Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Honduras, Kazakhstan, Mexico,
Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sudan, Syria, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Uganda, Uruguay, Venezuela
and Zimbabwe.
By every measure — population, landmass, energy output, GDP, food output and nuclear weapons — BRICS is not
just another multilateral debating society. They are a substantial and credible alternative to Western hegemony.
The BRICS are developing an optical fiber submarine telecommunications system that would connect its members.
It is being developed under the name BRICS Cable. Part of the motivation for BRICS Cable is to foil spying by
the U.S. National Security Agency on message traffic carried through existing cable networks.

[...] It appears likely that the new BRICS+ currency will be linked to a weight of gold. This plays to the strengths of BRICS members Russia and China, who are the two largest gold producers in the world and are ranked sixth and seventh respectively among the 100 nations with gold reserves.

 

[...] Reserve currencies are essentially the savings accounts of sovereign nations that have earned them through trade surpluses. These balances are not held in currency form but in the form of securities. When analysts say the dollar is the leading reserve currency, what they actually mean is that countries hold their reserves in securities denominated in a specific currency. For 60% of global reserves, those holdings are U.S. Treasury securities denominated in dollars. The reserves are not actually in dollars; they’re in securities. As a result, you cannot be a reserve currency without a large, well-developed sovereign bond market. No country in the world comes close to the U.S. Treasury market in terms of size, variety of maturities, liquidity, settlement, derivatives and other necessary features.

[June 29, 2023]
Jail break acceleration:
Ethiopia, one of Africa's fastest-growing economies, is
aiming to become the latest brick in the firewall against U.S.-imperialism.

[...] The BRICS+ currency offers the opportunity to leapfrog the Treasury market and create a deep, liquid bond market that could challenge Treasuries on the world stage almost from thin air. The key is to create a BRICS+ currency bond market in 20 or more countries at once, relying on retail investors in each country to buy the bonds. The BRICS+ bonds would be offered through banks and postal offices and other retail outlets. They would be denominated in BRICS+ currency but investors could purchase them in local currency at market-based exchange rates. Since the currency is gold backed it would offer an attractive store of value compared with inflation- or default-prone local instruments in countries like Brazil or Argentina. The Chinese in particular would find such investments attractive since they are largely banned from foreign markets and are overinvested in real estate and domestic stocks. [...] The sheer volume of retail investing in BRICS+-denominated instruments in India, China, Brazil and Russia and other countries at the same time could absorb surpluses generated through world trade in the BRICS+ currency. In short, the way to create an instant reserve currency is to create an instant bond market using your own citizens as willing buyers.

 

The United States exploits the world's wealth with the help of "seigniorage."
It costs only about 17 cents to produce a 100 dollar bill, but other countries
had to pony up 100 dollar of actual goods in order to obtain one (HERE)

 

[...] This entire turn of events — introduction of a new gold-backed currency, rapid adoption as a payment currency and gradual use as a reserve asset currency — will begin on August 22, 2023, after years of development. Except for direct participants, the world has mostly ignored this prospect. The result will be an upheaval of the international monetary system coming in a matter of weeks.

Quoted from:
James G. Rickards (June 06, 2023) - The BRICS+ Currency.

 

See also:

James G. Rickards (2012) - Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis.  

TPR (2014) - March 18, 2014  - Pivot of History: The Ascent of a Multi-Polar World System.

TPR (2016) - The End of Cheap China: 16 Emerging Low Wage Economies.

TPR (2022) - Bankster's Paradise.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China (2023) - US Hegemony and Its Perils.

S&P 500 Performance by Weekday

Bespoke (Mar 28, 2022) - On a trailing 12-month basis, the S&P 500 has performed poorly on Mondays and Tuesdays before gaining steam from Wednesday through Friday. This diverges from the patterns seen over the last thirty years, in which Thursday and Friday struggled relative to the performance over the first three trading days of the week. This year, oil has averaged gains on every day of the week, but the strongest performance has occurred early in the week, which is interesting as Monday and Tuesday have tended to be the worst days of the week for oil over the last 30 years. Bonds have performed poorly in the beginning of the week over the last twelve months but have partially recovered in the last two trading days. Over the long run, the safe asset has traded narrowly with only Wednesdays averaging a loss. Tuesdays and Thursdays have been strong days for the US Dollar over the last twelve months, but these days tend to result in flat to negative performance when looked at over the last 30 years.

 

Below we summarize the cumulative performance by weekday for the S&P 500 over the last 30 years. As you can see, Tuesday has been the best performing day by far, booking performance gains of 160.5%. Wednesday has posted a cumulative gain of 83.6%, which lands the day in second place. Friday and Thursday have been the weakest days, booking a cumulative gain of just 27.4% and 28.2%, respectively. Monday lands in the middle, recording a cumulative gain of 41.3%. As outlined above, the recent shift in weekday performance deviates from the norms of the last 30 years as investors have come out of the weekend with fears but concluded the week with optimism.

 

 

 

Quoted from:

Bespoke (Mar 28, 2022) - Asset Class Performance by Weekday.

See also:

Jeffrey Hirsch (2022) - Stock Trader's Almanac 2023.

Jeffrey Hirsch & Christopher Mistal (2016) - Annual, Monthly, Weekly & Holiday Volume Patterns. 

TPR (2022) - The Bullish & the Bearish Market Maker Cycle.

Oddmund Groette (2022) - The Turnaround Tuesday Trading Strategy.

Perry J. Kaufman (2019) - Weekday, Weekend, and Reversal Patterns. In: Trading Systems and Methods.

Dr. Duru (2019) - Daily Trading Patterns for the S&P 500.

Linda Bradford Raschke (2001) - Swing Trading - Rules and Philosophy.

 

German Bunds | 10 Year Yield (%) 1807 - 2016

Source: FTAlphaville

Breakeaven Oil Price - Towards The Collapse Of Saudi Arabia

Thierry Meyssan (Jan 11, 2016) - [...] The fall of the House of Saud may be provoked by a reduction in the price of oil. Incapable of reforming its life-style, the kingdom is borrowing hand over fist, to the point that according to financial analysts, it will probably collapse within two years. The partial sale of Aramco may temporarily postpone its demise, but this will only be possible at the cost of a loss of autonomy. The decapitation of Sheikh al-Nimr will have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. The fall of Saudi Arabia is now inevitable because there is no hope left for the people who live there. The country will be plunged into a mixture of tribal revolts and social revolutions which will be far more murderous than the previous Middle-Eastern conflicts.

Costs of Oil Production 2015 - Enlarge (Credits: Aargam)

Far from acting to prevent this tragic end, the US protectors of the kingdom are awaiting it with impatience. They continually praise Prince Mohammed’s «wisdom», as if encouraging him to make even more mistakes. Already in September 2001, the US Committee of the Chiefs of Staff were working on a map for the re-modelling of the «wider Middle East », which planned for the separation of the country into five states. In July 2002, Washington was considering ways of getting rid of the Saud family, during a famous session of the Defense Policy Board. From now on, it’s just a matter of time. Keep in mind: The United States have managed to solve the question of the succession of King Abdallah, but today, they are attempting to lead Saudi Arabia into error. Their objective is now to divide the countrry into five states. Wahhabism is the state religion, but the power of the Saud family, both interior and exterior, depends exclusively on Sunni tribes, while it subjects all other populations to apartheid. King Salman (80 years old) leaves the exercise of power to one of his children, Prince Mohammed (30 years old). The Prince has seized control of his country’s major companies, has declared war on Yemen, and has just executed the leader of the opposition, Sheikh al-Nimr." 

HERE

 According to the 2015 budget that Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud unveiled on December 28, the Gulf state that is the symbol of oil producing and exporting countries will face a 367-billion-riyal deficit this year, which is about USD 87.0 billion. Saudi Arabia has never seen a budget deficit of such proportion; it is a historical record and equivalent to 15% of its gross domestic product (GDP). Saudi Arabia is directly and indirectly involved in four wars (Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Libya) and is trying to make sure that the government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Egypt does not implode. In Syria, the Saudis are trying to overthrow President Assad and the costs have increased dramatically. On Saturday, January 16th the Saudi Arabia Tadawful stock index slumped 7% to its lowest level in five years after Brent oil fell below USD 29 a barrel. While all stock markets on the Arabian peninsula tumbled, the Iranian stock index gained one percent, making it one of the best performing markets in the world with gains of six percent since the start of the year (HERE).

EUR/USD vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

US T-Bonds vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

2015 vs 1998

Credits: Nautilus Research

SoLunar Intraday Maps - November 2015

The charts show the hourly solunar forces over Wall Street. Intraday movements of financial markets are strongly influenced 
by daily and intraday solunar forces. They usually closely follow their direction - either directly or inverted. Turning points can
be fine-tuned using the previously described planetary hours as well as the times of rising, culminating and setting planets.
Please note: Times calculated refer to EST.

SoLunar Intraday Maps - October 2015

The charts show the hourly solunar forces over Wall Street. Intraday movements of financial markets are strongly influenced 
by daily and intraday solunar forces. They usually closely follow their direction - either directly or inverted. Turning points can
be fine-tuned using the previously described planetary hours as well as the times of rising, culminating and setting planets.
Please note: The times calculated refer to EST (not EDT).

Interest Rates 1150 - 2014 (Historical Charts)

See also HERE

Bund Spread Gives Permission for Bear Market | Tom McClellan

Tom McClellan (Sep 24, 2015) - [...] German government bonds are known in the industry as “Bunds”, a contraction of the prefix “bundes” which is German for “federal”.  At the major stock market tops in 2000 and 2007, we saw the peak in the 10-year Bund-Treasury spread appear well in advance of the final price tops for stocks.  So because that spread was still rising in April 2014, my supposition then was that the uptrend had more months to live. Now we see a different condition.

Credits: Tom McClellan HERE + HERE

The Bund-Treasury spread peaked at 1.81 percentage points back in March 2015, and has since been contracting. Meanwhile, the DJIA and SP500 kept on rising to incrementally higher price highs as the summer wore on, eventually breaking down with the August 2015 minicrash. 

[...] With a divergence now in place between the DJIA and the Bund-Treasury spread, we can have a reasonable expectation that a bear market for stock prices should ensue.  If it plays out like the last two, the bear market should last until the Bund-Treasury spread gets back down at least to parity, or preferably even lower. That could take a while; in the 2000 and 2007 examples, it took a couple of years. The eurodollar COT leading indication already tells us to expect a downward trend until April 2016, so that gives us at least several months to see how the Bund-Treasury spread behaves.

Martin Armstrong on the DJIA

Martin Armstrong (Sep 23, 2015) - [...] Yes, if this week simply closes on the Dow below 16280, then we can be looking at that slingshot move I have warned about where in one year, we have a crash and a swing to the upside to new highs (see also HERE + HERE).

[...] Remember, if the stocks decline into 2015.75, that should push more and more capital into government bonds completing the BUBBLE. This is by no means a BUBBLE in stocks, commodities, or the dollar. This is a peak in GOVERNMENT. This is not even a Kondratieff Wave based upon commodities. This is the 309.6 year cycle in government and unfortunately, the other side of 2015.75 is not looking very pretty. This not about just the collapse of Europe. This is the collapse of Western forms of government that aids the shift in the financial capital of world to China by 2032 (how to read the above Forecast Array = HERE + HERE).

Peak Everything: Bonds - Equity - Real Estate

Credits: Deutsche Bank

Looking at three of the most important assets (bonds, equities and housing) across 15 DM countries, with data often stretching back two centuries, we are currently close to peak valuation levels relative to history. Indeed when aggregated, current levels are higher on average across the three asset classes than they were back in 2007/08 and certainly higher than in 2000. At the equity market peak back in the summer months of 2015 we were pretty much at the peak. Source: Deutsche Bank (2015)  - Long-Term Asset Return Study.

SoLunar Intraday Maps - September 2015

The charts show the hourly solunar forces over Wall Street. Intraday movements of financial markets are strongly influenced 
by daily and intraday solunar forces. They usually closely follow their direction - either directly or inverted. Turning points can
be fine-tuned using the previously described planetary hours as well as the times of rising, culminating and setting planets.
Please note: Times are EST (not EDT). Maps of previous months are HERE

SoLunar Intraday Maps - August 2015

The charts show the hourly solunar forces over Wall Street. Intraday movements of financial markets are strongly influenced 
by daily and intraday solunar forces. They usually closely follow their direction - either directly or inverted. Turning points can
be fine-tuned using the previously described planetary hours as well as the times of rising, culminating and setting planets.
Please note: The times calculated refer to EST (not EDT).

HERE

Some Astro Trading Rules

Rule # 01 [SP500] = SUN 110, 230, 350 MER (geo)
Rule # 02 [SP500] = SUN 90, 120, 180 JUP (geo)
Rule # 03 [SP500] = SUN 120 SAT (geo)
Rule # 04 [SP500] = SUN 00, 45, 90, 135, 180 SAT (geo)
Rule # 05 [SP500] = MER 120 JUP (geo)
Rule # 06 [SP500] = MER 120 NEP (geo)
Rule # 07 [SP500] = MER 88, 178, 268, 358 (helio)
Rule # 08 [SP500] = MER 120 NEP (geo)
Rule # 09 [SP500] = VEN 120 JUP (geo)
Rule # 10 [SP500] = VEN 00, 120 URA (helio)
Rule # 11 [SP500] = MAR 00, 90, 180 North Node (geo)
Rule # 12 [SP500 + Corn] = MER 00, 90, 180, 270 JUP (geo)
 

Rule # 13 [SP500 + Corn] = MER par VEN
Rule # 14 [Corn] = SUN par MER
Rule # 15 [Corn] = SUN par VEN
Rule # 16 [Corn] = MER 1 degree after retrograde
Rule # 17 [Corn] = MER 1 degree after direct
Rule # 18 [Corn] = MER 14 declination
Rule # 19 [Corn] = VEN 0 declination
Rule # 20 [Corn] = MAR 81, 171, 201, 351 (helio)
Rule # 21 [Soybeans] = VEN 00, 120 JUP (helio)
Rule # 22 [Soybeans] = VEN 00, 120 SAT (geo)
Rule # 23 [Soybeans] = VEN 120 SAT (geo)
 

All examples were calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.

Rule # 24 [Soybeans] = MAR 00, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180 JUP (geo)
Rule # 25 [Soybeans] = MAR 00, 120 SAT (geo)
Rule # 26 [Soybeans] = MAR 60, 124, 188, 252, 316 (geo)
Rule # 27 [US Bonds] = VEN 56, 176, 296 (helio)
Rule # 28 [US Bonds] = JUP 00, 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180 PLU (geo)
Rule # 29 [Swiss Franc] = MER 00 MAR (geo)
Rule # 30 [Swiss Franc] = MAR 00, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180 JUP (geo)
 

 


Trading the Rules (daily chart) 
1)  Look for a change in trend on a potential astro-turn-date, e.g. if market has been up, look for sell.

2)  Additional energy enters the market on potential astro-turn-dates. If the market has been trading in a range for 4 days or more, trade the breakout of the range.
 
3)  Without an obvious range or direction, do not trade.