Showing posts with label BRICS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BRICS. Show all posts

Thursday, November 28, 2024

Trump’s Coming War on BRICS and the Global South | Pepe Escobar

The incoming Trump 2.0 administration is expected to intensify US economic and geopolitical strategies against BRICS and their growing global network. Trump's actions will likely resemble earlier colonial approaches, involving covert regime-change operations, military pressure and intervention, and economic incentives to undermine BRICS and protect US control over resources such as oil and rare earth minerals. The goal is to prevent the new, multipolar world order that reduces US hegemony. This will shape US-BRICS relations and have significant implications for the entire Global South. 
 
Trump's swampy 'realist' approach to international relations contrasts with Biden's 'liberal' approach, primarily in that Trump openly defines the national interest as global, full-spectrum American military and economic dominance, asserting that all wars, sanctions, tariffs, and 'great deals' benefiting his donor class and billionaire peers would also be acceptable to his MAGA crowd of 'hard-working Americans.'  
 
 Goodbye, America. The cheating game of YOU counterfeiters is over.

His administration will aim to sanction any country bypassing the US dollar in trade, targeting the de-dollarization trend supported by BRICS. The de-dollarization movement, gaining momentum, challenges US financial dominance, with BRICS countries increasingly using national currencies and the Petroyuan, and exploring alternative payment systems. 

Marco Rubio will attempt to overthrow the governments
of Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia and seize control of their resources.
 
One of the major risks of a Trump 2.0 administration will be the attempt to destabilize the growing connectivity corridors across Eurasia, which are crucial for the strategic partnerships between Russia, China, India, and Iran. These corridors are part of two key axes: a horizontal one spanning across the Heartland from China to the West, including Central Asia, West Asia, and potentially extending to Europe (BRI), and a North-South axis connecting Russia, Iran, and India through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This development is critical to Eurasian integration. 
 
As the United States observes these emerging networks, and it sees its influence in Eurasia waning, particularly as BRICS and associated countries assert themselves. In the long term, this shift threatens America's presence and influence, not only in Eurasia but also in Africa. Africa and Latin America remain more complex due to entrenched regimes and comprador elites that support US interests. Overall, this represents a broader bipartisan struggle by Washington against the integration of Eurasia and the Global South, which undermines the unipolar world order that the US has historically maintained.

 
In Latin America, Venezuela, a quasi BRICS country, economically aligned with China, Russia, Türkiye, and Iran, remains a major obsession for the US, which is expected to escalate sanctions and covert actions to oust the Maduro government in order to gain access to the world's largest reserves of hydrocarbons, to gold, bauxite, iron ore, uranium, diamonds, and rare earth elements. Bolivia, which has the world's largest lithium reserves and is rich in natural gas, tin, silver, and copper, will be treated in a similar fashion by the US. Washington think tanks still consider Brazil a 'swing state,' and controlling the policies of South America's industrial giant remains central to US efforts to limit and sabotage BRICS in the region.
 
 Spotted in Caracas, October 2024.
 
However, in recent years, US attempts at assassinations, regime change, maximum pressure sanctions, hybrid wars of all sorts, and the installation of puppet leaders like Jeanine Áñez, Juan Guaidó, María Corina Machado, and Edmundo González have become increasingly unsuccessful (with Javier Milei or Daniel Noboa appearing more as temporary exceptions). And China, Russia, and Iran will not simply allow Venezuela being looted by Trump, Musk, Rubio, Prince, and other swamp creatures from South Florida.
 
»
Facts have proven that the US is the biggest source of chaos in the international system [...] From Afghanistan to Iraq, 
from Ukraine to Gaza, all these crises and conflicts are the result of the self-serving double standards of the US. « 
— Jing Jianfeng, Lieutenant General of China’s People’s Liberation Army, Singapore, June 16, 2024.
 
Saudi Arabia's shift toward full BRICS membership would mark a major change in global financial power. Trump will likely apply diplomatic pressure or sanctions such as asset-freezing to prevent this, as US influence over global oil markets is already diminishing rapidly. Africa will see intensified efforts to counter mainly China’s and Russia’s investments in infrastructure and energy. Also, Trump will likely increase sanctions and, eventually, together with the French and the British, support destabilization, e.g., by terrorist jihadis, as well as blackmail, assassination, and regime-change tactics to prevent further integration of African nations with BRICS.
 
»
The US is at war with the rest of the world [...] the war in Syria is a microcosm of World War 3  through proxies. «
— Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, November 28, 2024.
 

Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Germany at the Crossroads: It’s the System, Stupid │ Gerry Nolan

Germany, once Europe’s industrial juggernaut, now stumbles in a state of managed decline. With elections looming, the theatre is set. But let’s be clear: this isn’t about who wins, but whether Germans can reject the system that’s strangling their sovereignty. Because unless they do, these elections are nothing more than a distraction, a masterclass in divide-and-conquer.
 
» Know your enemy. «
  Sun Tzu.
 
Scenario 1: Banning AfD, A Gamble with Fire
Banning AfD wouldn’t be a show of strength but a desperate move to silence over a quarter of the electorate, especially in the former DDR where resentment still burns over decades of economic neglect. Friedrich Merz, obedient globalist and former BlackRock operative, would become Chancellor. The result? More war, deindustrialization, and blind subservience to the US. But silencing AfD won’t kill populism, it’ll fuel it. BSW would emerge as the strongest opposition, carrying the banner for those abandoned by the establishment.

  » Election isn’t about who governs. «

Scenario 2: AfD Grows, But the System Holds
AfD and CDU dominate the elections, but the anti-AfD cordon sanitaire holds. Merz scrambles to cobble together a coalition with Greens and SPD, a circus of contradictions. Meanwhile, AfD becomes the largest opposition party, and with BSW rising in tandem, Germany’s parliament turns into a warzone of populist resistance.
 
But the cracks widen as Germany faces three brutal realities: NATO’s inevitable defeat in Ukraine, an economic crisis fueled by sanctions and energy dependency, and mounting unrest from a population tired of being sacrificed on the altar of vassalage. 
 
Scenario 3: AfD Triumphs – The System Strikes Back
An AfD victory would trigger nothing short of institutional war. Mockingbird media, and globalist puppeteers would unleash chaos: mass protests, endless scandals, “mystery” corruption charges, and lawfare targeting AfD leaders. Color revolution tactics, international condemnation, and Soros-funded street movements would all be in play.
 
»
It’s the System, Stupid. «
 
These scenarios expose a single rigged system. This election isn’t about who governs, it’s about maintaining control while gaslighting the public into thinking change is possible. Divide and conquer, with AfD voters demonized as extremists and BSW supporters dismissed as utopian dreamers, all while the establishment engineers the decline.

Here’s the uncomfortable reality: Germany’s democracy is theatre, scripted to ensure one outcome, continued vassalage to Washington. The Nord Stream sabotage was a declaration of US dominance over Europe. Germany’s leaders didn’t even flinch. Their silence was an endorsement of their own country’s humiliation.

If Germans want real change, it’s not about winning elections within a rigged system, it’s about rejecting the system itself. Imagine a post-SMO world where Germany reclaims sovereignty, realigns with Russia and China, and embraces BRICS. Imagine restoring its industrial base, securing cheap energy, and forging a just peace in Europe. This isn’t a fantasy, it’s a choice. But to make it, Germans must first wake up to the fact that their political elite serves Washington, not Berlin.

» Yankee, Go Home «German cry for sovereignty.
 
The 80’s saw mass protests demanding the removal of US missiles and troops. It’s time for Germans to rediscover that spirit, to say "Yankee, go home" and reclaim their sovereignty. NATO has turned Europe into an American buffer, draining its resources, compromising its security, and hijacking its future.

A sovereign Germany could help lead Europe in a multipolar world, standing with the Global Majority rather than kneeling before the US. The alternative? Continued decline, economic ruin, and an electorate manipulated into fighting itself while the true oppressors profit from the chaos. The real question isn’t about CDU, AfD, or BSW, but whether Germans can see through the charade. The rigged script won’t save them; only rejecting NATO servitude and imagining a future aligned with the Global Majority can.



See also:

Thursday, October 31, 2024

BRICS Will Not Kill the Dollar—War Will | Martin Armstrong

The BRICS currency was created for geopolitical reasons when the neocons transformed the SWIFT system into an economic weapon and even threatened China with the same fate if they supported Russia. Once this occurred, the neocons turned the entire world’s monetary system into a weapon of war. This is why we have BRICS; it had nothing to do with killing the dollar or backing their currency with gold.

 » All currency is fiat, even when it is gold. Just because a currency is
backed by gold does not eliminate inflation or deflation. «

Many hoped for an official announcement regarding a gold-backed currency, which failed to materialize. A gold-backed currency would be massively deflationary. The money supply could not expand with the population or in times of need without new discoveries. Just because a currency is backed by gold does not eliminate inflation or deflation. The gold discoveries of the 19th century in California, Alaska, and Australia caused significant economic upheaval, followed by wars. The fact that gold was the currency did not prevent inflation.

Spain defaulted seven times. The gold and silver they brought back from the New World led to massive inflation in Europe. Those who preach that a gold standard is the solution lack an understanding of history. They blame “fiat currency,” as if eliminating it will solve all problems. There were booms and busts throughout ancient times long before paper money existed. All currency is fiat, even when it is gold. I have shown that Southern India routinely imitated Roman gold coins because they held a premium over gold—this is fiat. Northern India and the Kushan Empire issued their own coinage primarily because they traded more with China. Southern India used imitation Roman gold coins for about 250 years, confirming that the Roman coinage was worth more than its metal content.
 
 » The purchasing power of gold fluctuated at all times. The value of a currency is determined 
by the productive capacity of its people, not by its gold reserves. «

Similar claims were made about the Euro, which also did not work out well. Why? The value of a currency is determined by the productive capacity of its people, not by its gold reserves. Japan and Germany lost the war yet rose to the top of the economic hierarchy because their populations were productive. The United States has the largest consumer-based economy, which means that everyone needs to sell their products here, requiring transactions in dollars. The US is also strong militarily, which further supports the currency's foundation.

It is time to abandon these outdated economic theories, remnants from the 18th and 19th centuries. The economy has evolved since then. The neocons are destroying the dollar and undermining the future of the United States. When we lose another one of their endless wars, financial capital will shift from New York to Beijing. Just as war diminished Britain, so will it diminish the dollar and the United States.


Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Global MAGA-nomics | Francisco José Fernández-Cruz Sequera

The re-election of Donald Trump will lead to significant shifts in US economic and foreign policy, emphasizing unilateral protectionism and high tariffs aimed at boosting domestic production and safeguarding American interests. This 'MAGA-nomics' approach may impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese products, intending to reverse US deindustrialization and create jobs in key sectors.

MAGA-nomics: The war Trump will wage in 2025.

Trump's trade rhetoric portrays free trade as detrimental to the US economy, claiming trade deficits indicate weakness and job losses. His strategy seeks not only to protect the domestic market but also to pressure other nations to enhance market access for US goods. However, such mercantilism poses risks, including potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries, which could escalate costs and inflation both in the US and globally.

 Chronicles of Western Collapse — October 30, 2024.

A drastic tariff increase could harm American consumers by raising prices and potentially increasing inflation. The confrontation with China is particularly complex, as high tariffs may prompt China to devalue its currency, exacerbating internal economic issues while potentially triggering further trade conflicts.

The European Union, a major US trading partner, would likely suffer from these tariffs, which could significantly impact its economy amidst already existing challenges. Projections indicate that a 10% tariff on EU imports could reduce the Eurozone's annual GDP growth, further straining economic recovery.

 High tariffs, radical unilateralism, and the end of globalization as we know it.

Emerging markets like Vietnam, India, and Mexico may benefit as companies relocate production away from China, realigning global supply chains and potentially harming economies in Africa. The International Monetary Fund estimates that escalating trade disputes could reduce global economic growth, affecting millions worldwide.

Trump's approach extends beyond economics to form a coalition against China's influence, integrating defense strategies within economic policies (“Free and Open Indo-Pacific”). This could deepen geopolitical tensions and potentially lead to a new pro-China bloc. The historical precedent of protectionism, such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, illustrates the risks of such policies, emphasizing the interconnectedness of global economies and the potential for widespread negative repercussions.

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Facing Global System Change | Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary

It is a cliché that war is the continuation of policy with other means. It is important to add that war is the continuation of policy from a different perspective. So war, in its relentlessness, takes us to a new position from which to see things, to a high vantage point. And from there it gives us a completely different – hitherto unknown – perspective. We find ourselves in new surroundings and in a new, rarefied force field. In this pure reality, ideologies lose their power; statistical sleights of hand lose their power; media distortions and politicians’ tactical dissimulation loses its power. There is no longer any relevance to widespread delusions – or even to conspiracy theories. What remains is the stark, brutal reality. 
 
 » The war in Ukraine is our red pill. And now we must talk about reality. « 
Viktor Orbán - July 27, 2024.

[...] A change is coming, that has not been seen for five hundred years. This has not been apparent to us because in the last 150 years there have been great changes in and around us, but in these changes the dominant world power has always been in the West. And our starting point is that the changes we are seeing now are likely to follow this Western logic. By contrast, this is a new situation. In the past, change was Western: the Habsburgs rose and then fell; Spain was up, and it became the centre of power; it fell, and the English rose; the First World War finished off the monarchies; the British were replaced by the Americans as world leaders; then the Russo–American Cold War was won by the Americans. But all these developments remained within our Western logic. 
 

This is not the case now, however, and this is what we must face up to; because the Western world is not challenged from within the Western world, and so the logic of change has been disrupted. What I am talking about, and what we are facing, is actually a global system change. And this is a process that is coming from Asia. To put it succinctly and primitively, for the next many decades – or perhaps centuries, because the previous world system was in place for five hundred years – the dominant centre of the world will be in Asia: China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, and I could go on. They have already created their platforms, there is this BRICS formation in which they are already present. And there is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, in which these countries are building the new world economy.


I think that this is an inevitable process, because Asia has the demographic advantage, it has the technological advantage in ever more areas, it has the capital advantage, and it is bringing its military power up to equilibrium with that of the West. Asia will have – or perhaps already has – the most money, the largest financial funds, the largest companies in the world, the best universities, the best research institutes, and the largest stock exchanges. It will have – or already has – the most advanced space research and the most advanced medical science. In addition, we in the West – even the Russians – have been well shepherded into this new entity that is taking shape. The question is whether or not the process is reversible – and if not, when it became irreversible. I think it happened in 2001, when we in the West decided to invite China to join the World Trade Organisation. Since then this process has been almost unstoppable and irreversible.
 
[...] What is the European response to global system change? We have two options. The first is what we call “the open-air museum”. This is what we have now. We are moving towards it. Europe, absorbed by the US, will be left in an underdeveloped role. It will be a continent that the world marvels at, but one which no longer has within it the dynamic for development. The second option is strategic autonomy. In other words, we must enter the competition of global system change. After all, this is what the USA does, according to its own logic. And we are indeed talking about 400 million people. It is possible to recreate Europe’s capacity to attract capital, and it is possible to bring capital back from America.

Sunday, August 18, 2024

Mexico Pivoting Away From Washington’s Grip

In Mexico City, Washington is accused of sponsoring opposition NGOs such as Mexicans Against Corruption and Impunity (MCCI) through USAID programs and various private foundations, including Ford, Rockefeller, and Soros. The US government has sent nearly $5 million to MCCI since 2018, according to Mexico’s Financial Crimes Unit (UIF). Outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, also known as AMLO, whose term ends on September 30, 2024, has publicly condemned these actions, stating that his Foreign Ministry has sent a diplomatic notice to the US and that he will write directly to President Joe Biden about it. 

 Outgoing Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador
and President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, in the shadow behind him - August 16, 2024.

This accusation is part of a broader pattern of strained relations between the US and Mexico under López Obrador's presidency. Mexico has curtailed military cooperation with the United States, closing its airspace to American military aircrafts and reconnaissance drones. Last year, López Obrador accused the US Department of Defense of spying and vowed to restrict military information after Mexican-related intelligence documents were leaked. 
 
 » [...] if a foreign enemy would dare to profane Your ground with their sole, think,
Oh beloved Fatherland!, that Heaven has given a soldier in every son. War, war! with no mercy 
[...] «
Mexican National Anthem

The current row is part of a general pivot away from the US, driven by López Obrador and his left-wing populist MORENA political party, which has repeatedly asserted that Mexico will not be subservient to the US.

■  Last year, López Obrador rebuked “irresponsible” calls from some US lawmakers advocating military action against drug cartels. “We are not going to permit any foreign government to intervene in our territory,” he said.
■  López Obrador conditioned helping Biden with his southern border migrant crisis on lifting sanctions from Cuba and Venezuela – both of which are Mexican trading partners.
■  Mexico slashed imports of genetically-modified US corn in favor of boosting local production, sparking a trade dispute.
■  Mexico joined other major Latin American countries in pushing back on efforts by the US and EU to diplomatically isolate President Nicolás Maduro after the Venezuelan president was reelected to a third term in office.
■  Mexico has refused to support NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine and declined to impose economic sanctions on Russia.
■  Trade volume between Russia and Mexico increased by 9.8% in the first four months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, amounting to $759.99 million.
 
while Mexico remains chained by treaties to the sinking dollar-ship.
 
 
In the broader geopolitical context, Mexico is increasingly engaging with BRICS+ to diversify its global alliances and reduce reliance on the United States. This strategic shift includes substantial investments in the Mexican economy and strengthening ties with China, which offers significant trade and investment opportunities. Mexico's collaboration with BRICS+ presents huge potentials for growth in technology, energy, and agriculture. 
 
In 2024 IMF and World Bank rank Mexico 14th globally in terms of nominal GDP,  and 9th in terms of PPP.

The US attempts to influence the outcome of Mexican elections through its NGOs have been unsuccessful, and President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, who received 60% of the vote in the June 2, 2024 elections, is expected to continue López Obrador’s policies. Should Donald Trump win the next US presidential election, the relationship between the two countries could deteriorate further, with heightened conflicts related to trade, migration, weapons- and drug-trafficking, potentially bringing the two nations to the brink of direct military conflict. Balancing the
BRICS+ alliances with existing commitments will be crucial for Mexico's strategic and economic goals.

Monday, May 13, 2024

Welcome to the UNIT - The De-Dollarization Bombshell | Pepe Escobar

Welcome to the UNIT – a concept that has already been discussed by the financial services and investments working group set up by the BRICS+ Business Council and has a serious shot at becoming official BRICS+ policy as early as in 2025.

  » The UNIT is a new form of international currency that can be issued 
in a de-centralized way, and then recognized and regulated at national level.  «

[...] The Global Majority has had enough of the centrally controlled monetary framework put in place 80 years ago in Bretton Woods and its endemic flaws: chronic deficits fueling irresponsible military spending; speculative bubbles; politically motivated sanctions and secondary sanctions; abuse of settlement and payment infrastructure; protectionism; and the lack of fair arbitration. In contrast, the UNIT proposes a reliable, quick and economically efficient solution for cross-border payments. The - transactional - UNIT is a game-changer as a new form of international currency that can be issued in a de-centralized way, and then recognized and regulated at national level.

  » Decoupling money from politics will undoubtedly offer unique opportunities 
for fair trade and investments across the globe removing economic bypasses created by 
political power plays and irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies.  «

The strength of the UNIT, conceptually, is to remove direct dependency on the currency of other nations, and to offer especially to the Global Majority a new form of apolitical money - with huge potential for anchoring fair trade and investments. It is indeed a new concept in terms of an international currency - anchored in gold (40%) and BRICS+ currencies (60%). It is neither crypto nor stablecoin. [...] The endgame is that everyone, essentially, may use the UNIT for accounting, bookkeeping, pricing, settling, paying, saving and investing.

 

See
also:

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

The US is in Decline and Desperate Need to Modernize | President of Mexico

After a report from the US State Department about the allegedly poor human rights situation in Mexico, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) launched a counterattack. He warned Washington that there was no government in the world that had the right to interfere in the politics of another nation. Only the USA has repeatedly claimed such special rights in the past. AMLO pronounced: "Mexico will not tolerate such interference. Mexico will never be a protectorate or a colony of another country. Mexico is a free, independent and sovereign country."

  » That's just how they are. They are stagnant and ossified in decadence.
They are in decline and desperately need to modernize. 
The US must change their arrogant interventionist foreign policy.  «
 Andrés Manuel López Obrador, President of Mexico - April 24, 2024.

AMLO condemned US funding of so-called NGOs
- such as terrorist groups and drug cartels - that attack Mexico's legitimate government and its courts. It is above all the USA that should not lean too far out of the window when it comes to human rights: "Imagine if we would announce that the USA are violating human rights, political rights and freedoms, that the Statue of Liberty would be an empty symbol just because they have a presidential candidate who is constantly being dragged into court. How they want to talk about human rights when they are pouring billions of dollars into wars that result in the deaths of innocent people around the world? Why don't they release Assange? Where is the freedom? "

"United States governments are meddling in the internal politics of other countries for at least two centuries. And it is not only giving opinions of good conduct as if they were the judge of the world. They are also intervening militarily in countries with governments not subject to the interests of the United States. That's the story. They used to appoint and remove presidents as they pleased. That is the history of the people of Latin America. Well, in our history they invaded us twice. The first time they forced the Mexican government to sign the Guadalupe Hidalgo Treaty, that is: we lost half of our territory and nine of the fifty US federal states belonged to Mexico. We have not forgotten US Invasions. We have insisted a lot and we will continue to do so: The US must change their arrogant interventionist foreign policy."
 
» Cancel NAFTA/USMCA. Ditch the dollar. Re-issue the Mexican gold peso. Join the BRICS. « 
For now these topics are official diplomatic taboos still. But chained to a sinking ship, the US' 
biggest trading partner becomes increasingly fed up with the inflation-dollar fraud, the drug-war-
pandemic-genocide economy and the insane migration industry of its northern neighbor.

"
How come they allocate so much money to war? Why they do not allocate funds to care for their young people who are suffering from drug use; unfortunately, 100,000 young people die every year from fentanyl use. But that's just how they are. And we shouldn't be surprised. That is how it has been historically. That indicates that they are stagnant, and ossified in decadence. They are in decline and desperately need to modernize."

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