The US-China Competition in Southeast Asia | Jin Canrong

The US-China competition is going to be a long-term rivalry, and one shouldn't expect immediate outcomes. It consists of domestic competition, in which both countries will try to improve the competitiveness of their economies and the efficiency of their governance. It also consists of relationship-informed competition, where both countries will try to win favor with other nations during this process.

 Jin Canrong, Professor and Associate Dean of School of 

International Studies at Renmin University of China.

To me, the highlight of this competition will occur in Southeast Asia. The American strategy tends to create conflict and tension around China, fostering unrest and stirring up trouble, motivating countries like the Philippines and India to escalate tensions with China. Additionally, the US will use many NGOs to incite color revolutions in the area, including Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia. Even if these NGOs do not succeed in overthrowing governments, they can still create disturbances and interrupt China's rise. This is a favored geopolitical strategy of the US. In addition, the new $1.6 billion congressional bill passed to support the media demonization of China—what I would call "dog food for social media"—is a well-known tactic that the US has been continuously using against its geopolitical rivals.

 » Southeast Asian countries need industry to boost their growth, and China will be their biggest investor. 

These countries also require infrastructure development, which China can provide. China's 

financial 

capabilities are well above those of its Western counterparts when it comes to foreign investments. «

It's all part of the grand competition, and we are accustomed to it. The Chinese government cares greatly about Southeast Asia. We often express our desire to establish a community of shared future with Southeast Asian countries. The economic relationship with Southeast Asia has been quite positive in recent years, and the political relationship is also generally healthy, aside from the situation with the Philippines. Almost all Southeast Asian countries were originally colonies of the West, so the cultural and historical influence of Western powers over the region still exists today. There was an organization called the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), founded back in 1954. Its primary goal was to prevent the spread of communism during the Cold War. This can also be seen as part of a broader coalition against China led by the United States. Thus, the US has some advantages over Southeast Asian countries, at least due to recent history, particularly because China was too weak to project any significant power in the past.

Of course, I believe China's influence is catching up to that of the US in the region. To begin with, we are their neighbors, while the United States is far away. Secondly, our economic ties with the region are much stronger than those of the US. Finally, I think the majority of Southeast Asian countries agree with the Chinese style of non-interventionist foreign policy. In recent months, research and polls conducted by organizations in Singapore and Australia have shown that China's influence over the region is improving and has surpassed that of the United States in some countries. The magazine "Foreign Affairs" has also expressed concern that the US is losing its influence in the region. 

» The US economy is not prepared for global war. We are broke. «  

— Peter Schiff, October 2, 2024.

From my point of view, I believe the current situation is a deadlock—50-50. It's hard to say who is really leading in the region: China or the US. Again, the polls can sometimes be deceiving; they might not provide an accurate picture of what's really going on and can change quickly due to ongoing events. Nonetheless, I believe China is going to overtake the US in terms of influence over Southeast Asian countries in the near future. I believe this is a trend that is difficult to reverse. China has a large and expanding industrial sector, which often carries a spillover effect. Many Southeast Asian countries need industry to boost their growth, and China will be their biggest investor. These countries also require infrastructure development, which China can provide. Additionally, China's financial capabilities are well above those of its Western counterparts when it comes to foreign investments. 

I still see the US as the sole superpower on this planet, but what we are witnessing is that many regional powers are on the rise. In fact, I find it amusing that the majority of Chinese scholars today still consider the US to be the sole superpower. However, many of my foreign colleagues disagree with me. When I traveled to Africa recently, many people there told me that there are currently two superpowers in the world: China and the US. Within the Chinese intellectual community, we do not yet see China as a superpower. That being said, I believe we are entering a bipolar world, particularly in Asia and Southeast Asia, although it is important to note that there are also other strong regional powers. If I refer to it as merely bipolar, our friends in India might take issue with that description.

Quoted from:

Jin Canrong (October 1, 2024) - US-China Competition in Southeast Asia. (video) 

Israel’s Reckless Pager Operation: Who Can We Trust And Rely On? | Shen Yi

I've been studying international relations and politics for decades, and I'm shocked by this pager attack in Lebanon. This is not something a normal country would do; it's way past the moral red line of international norms. What we're looking at is a commercial electronic device, the pager, being modified into a military-style mini-grenade. Even though the operation targets Hezbollah members, the action is equivalent to igniting several cluster bombs in a market populated with Hezbollah members, their families, and other innocent civilians.

 » This is truly evil and shocking ... they've proven themselves willing to do outrageous, immoral things. «

Shen Yi, Director at Research Center for the Governance of Global Cyberspace, Fudan University.

 

The psychological effect of this operation is similar to the earliest Batman movie, where the Joker randomly poisoned hygiene products to create chaos in Gotham City. This isn't even using the pager to collect intel and destroy evidence. This can be considered a mass terrorist operation. It's like putting poison in bottled water and exporting it to your enemy city, expecting enemy soldiers to drink it, and disregarding innocent victims, oh well, sucks to be them.

 » Children lost their eyes while playing in the street. Mothers lost their limbs while shopping in a mall.
Doctors suffered severe injuries while driving to a hospital. This is horror and cruelty beyond imagination. «
China representative to the UN.

Assuming Israel's involvement, considering their current strike against Lebanon, there are two possibilities for this mass bombing. Either the bomb was installed during manufacturing in Taiwan, possibly through a joint operation between Taiwan and Israel, or the middleman modified the device. In China, Jewish people are considered the smartest and most cunning of all the peoples on this planet. Modifying this device into a bomb and activating it in mass volume is truly evil and shocking. However, I also consider this operation stupid and reckless, ignoring consequences and hiding behind the United States. The operation against Iran's nuclear enrichment facility might be within the rules of engagement, but this pager bombing is unacceptable. The United States swapped out hospital devices before the operation, showing awareness. The United States, Israel, and Taiwan governments remain quiet. 

 

How can we trust products from these regions in the future? This has impacted global supply chain trust. China now understands why the US considers Huawei cell phones and network devices national security issues - because they think China is as evil and immoral as they are. The problem isn't technical feasibility; today's technology makes it easy. The problem is who crosses the moral red line. Israel, backed by the United States, has shown willingness to cross it. This is a dangerous psychological barrier. 

 

How will China assure consumers of safety when buying US and Israel products? Shouldn't these products be inspected for tampering, with the US and Israel paying additional costs? This isn't unfair competition; they've proven themselves willing to do outrageous, immoral things. China can't wait until 5,000 Apple cell phones blow up to set up security. Considering the US views China as its biggest rival, China needs its own products, supply chain, communication, and banking systems. It's no longer about Chinese or US-made CPU preferences; it's about foreign entities willing to weaponize devices against you. It's not about faster cell phones; it's about safety. Maybe the quality of some Chinese products still lag behind, but we can tell the world we won't make products that explode intentionally. That should be a new standard. 

 

This chain of events shows that peace, safety, stability, and prosperity - elements of a great society - are rare globally. Many Chinese took these for granted. I believe China should lead promoting peace, growth, and stability around the world.

Quoted from:
Shen Yi (September 21, 2024) - Chinese response to Lebanon Pager Attack. (video)