The S&P market has been behaving as expected. It looks as if April 15 (Mon) or so could be a low followed by a bounce for a few days until April 18 (Thu) followed by another decline into the April 24 (Wed).
Apr 15 (Mon) Major Low ?
Apr 18 (Thu) High
Apr 23-24 (Tue-Wed) Low
Bounce
May 9 (Thu) Major Low ?
May 24 (Fri) Major High
Jul 24 (Wed) Major Low
Today is April 14 (Sun) and we're looking at this forecast as being very
similar. But there are several different variations of this particular
pattern. The most reliable one so far has been the year 2000 market. It is
repeating almost exactly what happened in April of 2000 and that low
came in on April 14. But we are looking for a low around April 23-24 (Tue-Wed), another bounce and another low around May 9 (Thu). The May 9th
low may not be lower than the market is right now.
The analogs
we're using are the year 2000, the 1996 market and the 2006 market. All
of which are connected to the present market and you can see the overlap
of the 1996 and the 2006 markets and how they go forward is extremely
similar but not identical.
They both have a high late May, they both have a low late July.
But from now until late May they have different variations on how they
go forward. So at this point one needs to be cautious about expecting
continued lower prices because the fourth wave does not have to be a big
decline. It's after the Elliott fifth wave that you'd expect to see a major
decline.
After this whole correction phase is over we're
expecting a new high by May 24 (Fri), a strong rally in the month of May and
then after that a very big decline from May 24 (Fri) down into July 24 (Wed) area. That could be a very significant short position for those who want
to go short or at least one once a hedge, one's long positions during
that time. After that July low the market should again rebound strongly and by the end of the year make new highs.
So
we're looking at a fourth wave correction which is probably going to
end either in the next two weeks or it could be as late as May 9 (Thu) and
then the fifth wave rally until late May followed by an ABC meaningful
correction of the whole move from October 27th until May 24th that whole
up move should be corrected in the two months after that. So if you're
looking for a big decline it's not likely to happen now. It's more
likely to happen after the end of May.
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