Showing posts with label Price Action. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Price Action. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Turtle Soup Day In Day Out │ Max Singh

The Turtle Soup trading strategy was developed by Linda Bradford-Raschke and published in her 1996 book Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies
 

The strategy’s name is a reference to a well-known strategy called Turtle trading, taught by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt in the 1980s to a group of novice traders called the 'Turtles'. 
 
 

Linda Bradford-Raschke inverted the reasoning behind the original Turtle strategy in order to develop a short-term trading method using false breakout reversals at key levels. The strategy can be used on 1 hour, 4 hour or daily charts. The method is simple but requires understanding of order flow and market structure. 

 
Reference
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Saturday, October 7, 2023

The Three-Day Rolling Pivot Level | Mark B. Fisher


 
Mark Fisher is no ordinary trader. The ACD trading system (an opening range breakout concept) he described in his 2002 book The Logical Trader is the one he and his 75-plus traders at MBF Clearing Corp. still use to make a living on the New York markets day in and day out. Does it work? Ask anyone at Fisher's firm, and they'll tell you it does. Unlike many in the business of helping traders, Fisher is happy to share his system because he believes the more people there are using it, the more effective it will be. However, the following is not specifically about Fisher's ACD system, but about his Three-Day Rolling Pivot concept (from the same book) and the general function of balance levels in daily and weekly market maker templates, about the market maker algorithm, and the origins and basic rationale of short-term trading. The 'rolling pivot' is an extension of Fisher's pivot range concept. 
 
In the charts above a Six-Day Moving Average defines a mathematically exact balance level for all segments of the weekly and daily market maker cycles. The same is true for the balance levels defined by Fisher's Three Day Rolling Pivot, by the Weekly Pivot and by the Daily Pivot. All four govern market structure and price action within and between the trading days inside the weekly cycle. Balance levels, market structure and price action reflect the market maker logic and the process of auctioning the order flow. These balance levels can be utilized in many ways, such as to determine entry points, stops and trailing stops. Is the current price out of balance, what is the distance towards these balance levels? Price is always being moved between 'liquidity pools' and (re-) balance levels. Across hours, sessions, days and weeks the market maker orchestrates the exact same eternal recurrence of the accumulation-expansion-distribution-retracement-cycle between round numbers or levels (e.g. 0, 25, 50, 75; 0, 10, 20, 30 or 0, 20, 40, 50) also known as the pump & dump cycle.
 
3 Bar Patterns - the smallest fractals of market structure. Inside bars are ignored, the last bar of a fractal becomes
 the first of the next. Where are the round number levels, the breakout levels, liquidity, the balance levels?

Identify in the above charts day-trading, short-term trading and swing trading setups. Define price targets, entry-, exit-, stop-levels, profit/loss ratios. Be sure everything is logically solid and proportionally related to daily and weekly highs and lows and the balance levels.
 
» All my life I've been a 60/40 player, content to clear my 20%. «   -  Jesse Livermore

Programming the Livermore Market Key

Richard D. Wyckoff's Composite Operator a.k.a. Market Maker a.k.a Broker manages the order flow of 'buyers' and 'sellers' with a price generating auction algorithm realizing the highest mathematically possible return in 'dealing' with the flow of orders. Later on in life Wyckoff became a broker and market maker himself. His schematics and Jesse Livermore's tables illustrate the complete logic and algebra of the market maker's auction process and the pump & dump cycle. The auction algorithm works ever since it was invented. Livermore was able to do the math without calculator, paper and charts. Aged fourteen he started as a quotation board boy at a Boston brokerage business and literally saw patterns in the waves of numbers flowing each day from the ticker tape. Livermore came to understand that scheme generates more profit than any other business activity ever known to man. Fifteen year old Wyckoff had also begun as a broker’s runner to soon experience the exact same epiphany. Market makers were tremendously successful in multiplying their returns with the invention of electronic exchanges and with the invention of the daily global scheme between the 'Asian Session', the 'London Session', and the 'New York Session'. Wyckoff, Livermore and W.D. Gann were contemporaries, trading the same commodities, stocks and indices in the same exchanges. All were initiated into the auction algorithm. Wyckoff and Livermore were larger-than-life traders while Gann's true returns have always been subject of debates. He sold many expensive courses and forecasts. And what he sold to subscribers and students and how he actually traded for a living were very different things: Gann traded a double-tops-and-double-lows-in-the-direction-of-the-daily-trend-strategy - plain and simple pump & dump trading Wyckoff-Livermore style. What should we learn from all this? Maybe the lesson is to keep things as simple as possible as Tom Hougaard suggested.
 
Market maker pump & dump levels.

The accumulated length of the intraday price swings in the 1-minute chart of any instrument exceeds the daily true range several dozen times every single day. Imagine the factor on sub-1 minute time frames without having to deal with slippage nor transaction costs. Let that sink in. How is that possible? Understand the opening range concept and the logic and purpose of 'breakouts' and 'false breakouts' from that range. Monday's high and low define the opening range for the week; the high and low during the first thirty minutes the opening range of a session; the first three trading days of a new quarter limit the quarterly opening range; and the range of the first trading week of the year becomes the yearly opening range. Know the logic, principles and precision of price action and of market structure as taught nowadays e.g. by ICT or Stacey Burke: Price moving in one direction always creates the exact same imbalance on the opposite side. Imbalances are re-balanced by retracements of at least 50%. Price expands in proportions of 1/8ths or 1:1, 2:1, 3:1 etc. Price is always timed and measured and moves across all times frames always proportionately to the above listed opening ranges towards (re-) balance levels. Three and nine minutes are fractals within the hour; three hours a fractal within a session and the trading day; three and nine trading days are fractals within and across weeks; three and nine weeks fractals within months and quarters. Ideally Wednesdays and Fridays are timed for ending and re-starting three day fractals within the weekly market maker template.   
 
Calculation of the Three-Day Rolling Pivot:

Three-Day Rolling Pivot Price = (three-day high + three-day low + close) / 3
Second number = (three-day high + three-day low) / 2
Pivot differential = daily pivot price – second number
Three-Day Rolling Pivot Range High = daily pivot price + pivot differential [omitted in above charts]
Three-Day Rolling Pivot Range Low = daily pivot price – pivot differential
[omitted in above charts]

The Probabilistic Mindset of Successful Traders - Mark Douglas

Reference
:
Mark B. Fisher (2002) - The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness.

 
Mark B. Fisher

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

The Weekly Opening Range & ICT Weekly Range Profiles

The Weekly Opening Range is defined by Monday's range. Monday sets the Opening Range high and low for the entire week. Tuesday may extend that range. It could become a false break, a break and range extension, a reversal, or maybe an inside day. In a large majority of weeks, by the time Monday and Tuesday has traded, the high or low extreme is in place for the week, and one of these will tend to hold, the other may get broken.  
 

After Monday's Weekly Opening Range only three things can happen on Tuesday:
  1. A Breakout from a Opening Range and Trend.
  2. A Breakout from a Opening Range and Reverse into the Opening Range (false breakout or stop hunt).
  3. A Trading Range between Highs and Lows of the Opening Range (inside day).
Coming into Wednesday, look for the following:
  • Did Monday or Tuesday close as an inside day?
  • Did Tuesday's breakout fail?
  • Did Tuesday close outside of Monday's Opening Range (= Opening Range Breakout) or inside?
  • Was Tuesday a First Red Day (FRD) or a First Green Day (FGD)?
  • Has there already been 3 levels of rise or fall from the High or the Low of the Week (LOW/HOW)? This could indicate a daily reversal.
  • Consider market structure! 


Here are some additional observations related to whether Wednesday will be a reversal or a trend continuation of the Monday-Tuesday initial balance:
  • If the market closes outside of Monday's Opening Range on Tuesday, the probability that Wednesday continues the trend increases significantly (unless the breakout fails on Wednesday)
  • On Tuesday the market breaks out of Monday's range, but pulls back and closes inside of  Monday's range (failed breakout). The probability of reaching for the other end of the Opening Range increases significantly.
  • If Monday's breakout fails, and Tuesday's breakout also fails at the other end of Monday's range, there is  high potential for a Parabolic Trend Trade on Wednesday.
  • 3 Pushes of drives out of the Weekly Opening Range coming into Friday has the highest potential for a large reversal.
  • If there are only 2 drives out of the Opening Range coming into Friday, there is a higher probability for a Parabolic Trend Trade.
  • If the breakout on Tuesday closes 3 levels of rise or fall out of the Opening Range, the potential for reversal throughout the week increases.
  • In most instruments the Tuesday-Friday range extension from Monday's opening range is usually a multiple of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2, 3, 4 or 5 of Monday's range.
  • In most instruments the Average Weekly Range equals 1.8 to 2.3 times the Average Daily Range. 
 
Time Frames - Price Ranges - Time-Price Proportions | Some Observations
 
References:

Saturday, September 30, 2023

ICT Liquidity - The Financial Market's Zero Sum Game | Michael J. Huddleston

For a trader or institution to buy or sell an instrument, stock, currency pair, etc. it is necessary that there is another trader or institution or 'the crowd' with the equivalent opposite position. If the smart money (capital controlled by institutional investors, market mavens, central banks, funds, and other financial professionals) wants to buy a financial instrument, they will need sellers in the market. Our presumptions are: 
  1. All financial markets are a zero sum game. 
  2. In all financial markets price is generated and driven by the market maker's auction algorithm. 
  3. The market maker's price generating algorithm continuously calculates, re-balances and manages the flow of orders always in line with the fundamental 'Minimum of 50% Retracement-Rule across all time-frames: fractions of a second, minutes, hours, days, weeks, months and quarters. 
  4. The algorithm generates the mathematically highest possible return for the market maker.

 
For the market makers, for the big dealers in the exchanges - for the smart money - liquidity is provided by the dump money, by the crowd, at levels where the dump money usually has its Stop loss, Buy and Sell orders. Driving price beyond these order-levels, the market maker collects liquidity - the money of the uninformed. Smart money activates these stop, buy and sell orders to feed and place their contrary positions in the market. Richard D. Wyckoff - a brilliant speculator, and later on a broker and market maker himself - explained the accumulation and distribution process of the 'market maker' - of the Composite Operator - in all detail ninety years ago. The Composite Operator manipulates the price in order to collect 'free money'. Liquidity.  
 
There are two types of liquidity:

1.          Buy Stops Liquidity (BSL)
The BSL is originated by Stop Losses of sell orders, after the BSL is taken, the market reverses to the downside, because banks use the BSL to place sell orders in the market. 
 
 
Regarding Buy Stops Liquidity (BSL) focus on:
PMH - Previous Month's High
PWH - Previous Week's High
PDH - Previous Day's High
HOD - High Of Day
OLD HIGH - Swing High
EQUAL HIGHS = Retail Traders' typical 'Resistance'.

When BSL is taken, the market reverses to the downside.
 

2.          Sell Stops Liquidity (SSL)
The SSL is originated by Stop Losses of Buy orders, after the SSL is taken, the market reverses to the Upside, because banks use the SSL to place Buy orders in the market. 
 
 
Regarding Sell Stops Liquidity (SSL) focus on:
PML - Previous Month's Low
PWL - Previous Week's Low
PDL - Previous Day's Low
LOD - Low Of Day
OLD LOW - Swing Low
EQUAL LOWS = Retail Traders' typical 'Support'.

When SSL is taken, the market reverses to the upside.
 

The Stop Hunt (SH) is a manipulation movement used by the Market Makers to neutralize liquidity (stop losses). It's a false breakout above /below the zone where there is liquidity. Market Makers usually use High Impact News to take liquidity.
 
High Impact News Calendar

Always pay attention to the news calendar, to know the pairs that will move, generally, pairs with many news forecasts('High Impact'), those currency pairs, stocks, bonds, etc. are going to move (trending) during the day or week.

See also:

Friday, September 15, 2023

Trend Reversal Entry Strategies

Trend-Reversal Entry Strategies aim to buy at or near the bottom and to sell at or near the top. Advisors and educators often reject these strategies because their technical analysis relies on lagging indicators. However, there are three high probability two-bar reversal patterns: the Reversal Day, the Signal Day and the Snap-Back Reversal Day. These are low-risk trend-reversal entry strategies for short-term trading and swing-trading. The set-ups are identified on the daily chart and the entries executed on the hourly chart or lower timeframes. The profit/loss ration needs to be 1.5 or more. Proper knowledge of market structure and price action is required.
 
How reliable are these 'text book' patterns?
Brent Penfold (2017) - Reversal Patterns.
Oddmund Groette (2023) - Reversal Day Strategy Backtest – Does It Work?

Reversal Day Trade Entry Set-Up
A Reversal Day top forms when price makes a new daily high but the day closes below the prior day's close. The current day's open and the trend to new highs is not sustained by the close. Variations of the Reversal Day are the Key Reversal Day, the Outside Reversal Day and the Outside Key Reversal Day.
 

On a Key Reversal Day the market opens below the prior day's close, makes a new high, but closes below the prior day's close and the current day's open. A Key Reversal Day is a stronger reversal signal than a Reversal Day. Outside Reversal Days and Key Reversal Days are both Outside Days and meet the criteria of the Reversal Day. Outside Reversal Days are stronger reversal indicators than Reversal Days, and Outside Key Reversal Days are even more convincing that a daily reversal has taken place. In all cases the Initial Protective Stop Loss is one tick above the high.

Signal Day Trade Entry Set-Up
A Signal Day opens above the prior day's close, makes a new high and the close is below the current day's open. The open must be in the top 1/3 of the daily range and the close must be in the bottom 1/3 to qualify as a valid Signal Day. Unlike a Reversal Day, the Signal Day's close does not have to be below the prior day's close, only below the current day's open.

The Gap Signal Day is a very strong daily reversal indicator. The entire daily range of the Gap Signal Day is above the prior day's range, leaving a gap at the end of the day. Considering the positive up close as bullish is a misleading view of a Gap Signal Day.
 

In both cases the Initial Protective Stop Loss is one tick above the high of the Signal Day.

Snap-Back Reversal Day Trade Entry Set-Up
This is a two-day reversal setup. On Day One the market makes a new high with an open in the lower 1/3 of the daily range and the high in the lop 1/3. It appears to be a very bullish day. Day Two is the Snap-Back Day with the open in the top 1/3 of the daily range and the close in the bottom 1/3. Day Two does not have to reach new highs or lows compared to Day One. The wider the range of Day One and Day Two, the stronger the indication for a reversal. A stronger Snap-Back Reversal Day has Day Two's open below Day One's close with a new daily low and a close below the prior day's low. 


The Initial Protective Stop Loss is one tick above the higher of the two days.
 
All of the above daily reversal patterns frequently occur within a trend without resulting in a sustained change of trend. Hence daily reversal set-ups are only to be considered valid when time, price and patterns are indicating a termination of the trend. 

Trend Continuation Entry Strategies

Trades can be entered after a new trend is already established. There are three low-risk trend continuation entry strategies for short-term trading and swing-trading. The set-ups are identified on the daily chart and the entries executed on the hourly chart or lower timeframes. The profit/loss ratio needs to be 1.5 or more. Proper knowledge of market structure and price action is required.
 
Inside-Day Trade Entry Set-Up
The price range of an inside-day is within the price range of the previous day. An inside-day is a day of indecision. It is a day when traders do not have strong conviction as to the trend of the market. An inside-day often occurs after a wide-range day when the range exceeded the average range of the prior few days. Inside-days also often occur either after a trend reversal or after a fast move as a brief period of consolidation within a larger trend. Usually, the direction of the breakout from the inside-day is a continuation of the direction prior to the inside-day. 


Inside Day Buy Set-Up Rules:
  1. Only enter in the direction of the trend  against the last pivot reversal.
  2. Enter a buy position, as long as the low of the day prior to the inside-day has not been exceeded, or, on the day following the inside-day, buy at one tick above the high of the day prior to the inside-day.
  3. Place the initial protective sell stop one tick below the lower of the low of the inside-day or the low of the entry day.

Outside Day Trade Entry Set-Up
An outside-day is a period of range expansion. A market usually continues in the direction of the close of an outside-day. The outside-day entry setup requires the market to be monitored during the day.
 

Outside Day Buy Set-Up Rules:
  1. Only enter in the direction of the trend.
  2. For a buy set-up, if the market first exceeds the low of the prior day without having exceeded the high of the prior day, buy one tick above the high of the prior day.
  3. Place the initial protective sell-stop one tick below the low of the entry day up to the time the trade is entered.
  4. Exit the position on the close if the close is below the current day's open and prior day's close. The failure of the close to be in the anticipated trend direction is a negative signal and reason to exit the trade.

Pull Back Trade Entry Set-Up
The Pull-Back entry strategy is based on the observation that minor corrections in trending markets usually only last some three days. The Pull-Back trade set-up enters a trade on minor corrections against the main trend.
 
 
Pull Back Buy Set-Up Rules:
  1. Only enter in the direction of the trend.
  2. For a sell set-up, the three most recent days must each have higher highs or any combination of two higher highs and an inside-day. Just the opposite for a buy set-up.
  3. For a sell set-up, place a sell-stop one tick below the low of the prior day once the set-up conditions are met.
  4. If the market makes a new high, adjust the sell-stop one tick below the low of the prior day.
  5. Place the initial protective buy-stop one tick above the higher of the high of entry day or the day prior to entry.
  6. Exit the position on the close of the entry day if the close is above the current day's open and the prior day's close.
Keep in mind, no single strategy is bulletproof, stop-loss strategies must be in place and the profit/loss ratio 1.5 or more. Trading is about probabilities and losses part of the trading-business.