Samuel Benner was a prosperous American farmer who was wiped out financially by the 1873 panic and a hog cholera epidemic. In retirement, he set out to establish the causes and timing of fluctuations in the economy.
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| Edward R. Dewey (1967): » If you had used these dates for trading, your percentage gains between 1872 and 1939 would have been 50 times your losses! « |
In 1875 he published a book called "Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices" forecasting commodity prices for the period 1876 to 1904. Many - not all - of these forecasts were fairly accurate. The Benner Cycle includes:
- A (upper line): "Years in which Panics have occurred and will occur again." A 54 year cycle alternating every 18, 20 and 16 years.
- B (middle line): "Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds." Cycles alternating every 8, 9 and 10 years.
- C (lower line): "Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a good time to buy Stocks, 'Corner Lots', Goods, etc, and hold till the 'Boom' reaches the years of good times; then unload". A 27 year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 7, 11, 9 years and peaks in the order 8, 9, 10 years (B - middle line).
Benner's cycle projections align with the latest analysis of the "Foundation for the Study of Cycles" and are pointing to a major stock market low in the US in 2023. David Hickson's Hurst cycle analysis projects this low to March of 2023 and Martin Armstrong to April 11, 2023 (Tue).
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| » Periods When to Make Money « ; the original business card of George Tritch Hardware Co. Apparently, the diagram was compiled by George Tritch in 1872, but was not attributed to him by Samuel Benner in 1875. |
References:
Samuel Benner (1884) - Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices (3rd. Ed.; original 1875)
Charles Capriole (2020) - George Tritch Strategy from 1872 has a 90% hit rate
David McMinn (2022) - Benner Cycles & the 9/56 year grid
David McMinn (2022) - Benner Cycles & the 9/56 year grid
David Hickson (Oct 3, 2022) - The Next 20 Weeks - S&P 500 - Hurst Cycles Market Update
Lars von Thienen (Oct 9, 2022) - Market Cycles Report - Cycles of Financial Crisis using long term static cycle models.
Lars von Thienen (Oct 9, 2022) - Market Cycles Report - Cycles of Financial Crisis using long term static cycle models.
