2026 High in the Benner Cycle | "Time to Sell Stocks and Values of all Kinds"

Samuel Benner (1832–1913), a once-prosperous farmer in Lawrence County, Ohio, whose wealth was destroyed by a devastating hog cholera epidemic and the Panic of 1873, devoted the remainder of his life to identifying recurring patterns in economic booms and busts. Through exhaustive analysis of commodity prices—specifically provisions (pork products such as bacon, ham, mess pork, lard, and salted pork), live hogs, corn, cotton, and pig iron (later also wheat and railroad-stocks)—he published "Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices" in 1876, a work that formed the basis for his annual forecasts through 1907.

  

 » Periods When to Make Money. « The original 1872 business card of the George Tritch Hardware Co. in Denver, Colorado—which was copyrighted in 1883 and 1897—is the focus of an ongoing controversy: Was it genuinely created by Tritch, or was it simply plagiarized and popularized by Benner four years later in 1876?

 
Benner’s approach was empirical, grounded in price data from 1780 to 1872, and used to extend projections far into the future by emphasizing recurring cycles in commodity prices and business activity. He treated these cycles not merely as descriptive patterns but as prescriptive guidance, advising investors on when to buy during "hard times" and when to sell during "good times."

 

Benner's time-price model identified nested peaks and troughs in commodity prices, agricultural yields, and broader economic conditions. Central to his framework were the following patterns:

■ 27-Year Cycle in Pig Iron and Cotton Prices: Analyzing data from 1833 to 1899, Benner observed high prices following an ascending arithmetic progression of 8, 9, and 10 years, repeating every 27 years. Low prices, conversely, followed a descending series of 9 and 7 years. This cycle captured the volatility in industrial commodities like pig iron, which Benner viewed as a bellwether for economic health, given iron's role in manufacturing and infrastructure.
■ 11-Year Cycle in Corn and Hog Prices: Beginning in 1836, this cycle alternated between 5- and 6-year sub-periods, reflecting fluctuations in agricultural staples. Benner broke it into peaks and troughs that aligned with seasonal and weather-related disruptions.
■ Business Cycle with 16-18-20 Year Peaks: Extending his commodity analysis, Benner described a broader 11-year business rhythm, characterized by peaks spaced 16, 18, and 20 years apart. Lows coincided with pig iron troughs, while panics occurred at intervals averaging 9 years (7-11-9 pattern, akin to the Juglar cycle). Every third peak aligned roughly every 54 years, echoing longer waves like those later formalized by Nikolai Kondratieff.

 Benner's astronomical time-price cycles theory.

These cycles formed a hierarchical structure: shorter oscillations (5–11 years) drove immediate price swings, while longer ones (27 and 54 years) shaped multi-decade eras of prosperity or contraction. Benner integrated them into a single chart, forecasting "ups and downs" with directives such as "Years of Good Times: High Prices and the Time to Sell" for peaks and "Years of Hard Times: Low Prices and a Good Time to Buy" for troughs.

 

 

 » "B." [2026] Years of Good Times. High Prices and the Time to Sell Stocks and Values of All Kinds. « 

For 2025, Benner’s cycle predicted the US stock market driving higher; for 2026, it forecasts a major top: "High Prices and the Time to Sell Stocks and Values of All Kinds" into 2032 ("Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a Good Time to Buy Stocks"). 2026 is marked as a "B" phase year — a peak of high prices and euphoria, often the culmination of a bull market before a shift to downturns. Historical "B" peaks have aligned (often within 1-2 years) with major tops like: 1929 (Great Depression peak), 2000 (dot-com bubble), 2007 (pre-2008 crisis), and others. 

Benner attributed these periodicities to celestial mechanics, positing that solar system dynamics influenced earthly economies. He aligned his 11-year cycle with Jupiter's major equinox, which recurs every 11.86 years—a near-match to observed corn, hog, and business fluctuations from 1836, 1847, 1858, and 1869. Jupiter, in his view, served as the "ruling element" in natural product price cycles, potentially modulated by electromagnetic influences from Uranus and Neptune on Saturn and, in turn, Earth.

This astro-economic perspective echoed earlier hints by English economist William Stanley Jevons, who suggested in 1843 planetary configurations might underpin business cycles but abandoned the idea amid academic opposition. Modern interpretations extend this to lunar phases and solar activity (e.g., nodal precession, sunspot cycles), though Benner's original emphasis remained on observable price data rather than strict astronomy and astrology.

   

Benner's Cycle Forecast for the Period 2015–2035.

In 1948, Edward R. Dewey, director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, updated and reprinted Benner’s work as the Foundation’s "Reprint No. 24". He lauded Benner’s pig-iron forecasts over the 60-year period from 1875 to 1935 for achieving a gain-to-loss ratio of 45:1, deeming it one of the most reliable business charts despite numerous imitations by lesser-known authors. Proponents cite alignments with major events: the cycle's "B" peaks (high-price euphoria phases) approximated the 1929 stock market top preceding the Great Depression, the 2000 dot-com bust, and the 2007 pre-financial crisis summit—often within 1–2 years. 

 

Edward R. Dewey (1967) considered the true length of Benner’s pig iron price cycle to be 9.2 years and thus his "forecast got off the track by one year every five waves. By 1939 his projection was no longer usable."  In 1971 Dewey commented: "Were Benner still alive and issuing yearly supplements to his Prophecies, he probably would have learned all that was necessary to know about cycles of fractional length and would have adjusted later forecasts accordingly." 

However, scrutiny reveals nuances: Benner's original chart, rooted in agriculture (which comprised 53% of the US economy in the 1870s), projected a 1927 high and 1930 low, not the exact 1929–1932 Depression timeline. A sensational 1933 Wall Street Journal article, designed to attract attention, altered Benner’s original cycle dates for dramatic effect, thereby fueling persistent misconceptions (see chart below).

 

 

Martin Armstrong recently contended that Benner’s cycle was more a historical curiosity than a reliable predictive tool, noting that it has been both right and wrong many times: 

 

The claim that Benner’s Cycle predicted the Great Depression is false. The chart [above] that was published in the Wall Street Journal altered Samuel Benner’s cycle, which was based on agriculture. It predicted a high in 1927, not 1929, and the low in 1930, not 1932. Claims that Benner’s work calls for a crash in 2025 are flat-out wrong. His target years would be 2019 and 2035, based on his data, not the altered, fake news published by the Wall Street Journal in 1933.

 

Benner was a farmer. Applying his cycle to the economy today is no longer effective, any more than the Kondratieff Wave. Both were based on the economy, with agriculture being the #1 sector. As the Industrial Revolution unfolded, those cycles remain relevant for commodities, but not the economy. Agriculture, when Benner developed his model, accounted for 53% of the economy. Today it is 3%. If they were alive today, they would have used the services industry. Capital flows are still pointing to the dollar, given the prospect of war and sovereign defaults outside the USA.

Martin Armstrong, August 30, 2025.

 

See also: 

Samuel Benner (1876)  - Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices. 

What years to make money on pig-iron, hogs, corn, and provisions.  

Samuel Benner (1907)  - Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices. 

Edward R. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin (1947) - Cycles: The Science of Prediction.

Edward R. Dewey (1967)  - The Case for Cycles.
Edward R. Dewey and Og Mandino (1971) - Cycles: The Mysterious Forces that Trigger Events.

LCdr. David Williams (1982) - Financial Astrology.  

TPR (2022) - "Periods When to Make Money": Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low.

The 18.6 Year Cycle in the General Economy | Louis M. Thompson

I believe there are weather cycles that trigger events in our economy, and I believe there is one weather cycle that is related to the 18.6 year lunar cycle. For that reason, I have prepared a lunar declination chart patterned after Fig. 1 and shown as Fig. 3. If a relationship between the lunar cycle and the weather cycle can be explained, we will gain a real milestone in explaining the business cycle.

 

 

 

[...] We have a 9.3-year cycle in production, which gives rise to a 9.3-year cycle in grain prices. Highest yields have occurred at the time of minimum declination and the four following years. Lowest prices have occurred because of a build-up of supplies, and the low prices have occurred about every 9.3 years and every 18.6 years. Fig. 3 describes the cycle in agriculture better than it does the general economy. Yet, as we look back to the nineteenth century, there were depressions at the time of maximum declination (285°) in every 18.6-year cycle. In this century, our lowest agricultural prices occurred in 1913, 1932, 1950, 1969, and 1987, or every 18.6 years. lt appears that a weather cycle of 18.6 years drives a production cycle of the same length, which drives a price cycle of the same length.

Quoted from:
Louis M. Thompson (1989) - The 18.6-Year Cycle in the General Economy.
In: Cycles, May/June 1989, Foundation for the Study of Cycles.

 

See also:

Edward R. Dewey & Edwin F. Dakin (1947) - The 18.6 Year Real Estate Cycle. 

In: Cycles: The Science of Prediction.

TPR (2022) - Periods When to Make Money. Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low.

"Periods When to Make Money" | Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low

Samuel Benner was a prosperous American farmer who was wiped out financially by the 1873 panic and a hog cholera epidemic. In retirement, he set out to establish the causes and timing of fluctuations in the economy.

 

» If you had used these dates for trading, your percentage gains 

between 1872 and 1939 would have been 50 times your losses! «

 Edward R. Dewey, 1967.

Samuel Benner Cycle Forecast 2015–2035.

In 1875 he published a book called "Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices" forecasting commodity prices for the period 1876 to 1904. Many - not all - of these forecasts were fairly accurate. The Benner Cycle includes:

A (upper line): "Years in which Panics have occurred and will occur again." A 54 year cycle alternating every 18, 20 and 16 years.
B (middle line): "Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds." Cycles alternating every 8, 9 and 10 years.
C (lower line): "Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a good time to buy Stocks, 'Corner Lots', Goods, etc, and hold till the 'Boom' reaches the years of good times; then unload". A 27 year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 7, 11, 9 years and peaks in the order 8, 9, 10 years (B - middle line).

 

Benner's cycle projections align with the latest analysis of the "Foundation for the Study of Cycles" and are pointing to a major stock market low in the US in 2023. David Hickson's Hurst cycle analysis projects this low to March of 2023 and Martin Armstrong to April 11, 2023 (Tue).

 

 » Periods When to Make Money «  - The original business card of George Tritch Hardware Co. 

The diagram was apparently compiled by George Tritch in 1872, but Samuel Benner did not attribute it to him in 1875.

 

The "Periods When to Make Money" chart, attributed to George Tritch’s Hardware Co. in 1872, is a fascinating artifact in the history of financial cycle analysis. This chart, often referred to as the Benner Cycle due to Samuel Benner’s 1875 publication "Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices," attempts to predict market cycles by identifying periods of panic, prosperity, and low prices. The controversy over its origin—whether it was truly Tritch’s creation in 1872 or popularized by Benner in 1875—highlights an interesting debate about attribution and influence in early financial forecasting.

Tritch’s business card, reportedly compiled in 1872, predates Benner’s book, suggesting he may have been the original architect of the cycle model. The chart categorizes market phases into three types: panic years (A), good times for selling (B), and hard times for buying (C), with cycles of 16/18/20 years for panics, 8/9/10 years for peaks, and shorter cycles for bottoms. Its simplicity and alleged predictive power, reportedly aligning with events like the Great Depression, the Dot-com Bubble, and the 2008 Financial Crisis, have kept it relevant among some investors, despite skepticism about its scientific basis.

 

However, Benner’s 1875 publication, which expanded on these ideas and tied them to commodity price cycles (e.g., 11-year cycles for corn and pigs, 27-year cycles for pig iron), gained more prominence, possibly overshadowing Tritch’s earlier work. Benner’s focus on solar cycles and planetary influences, as noted in some analyses, adds a layer of financial astrology that critics argue lacks empirical rigor. This has led to mixed views: some praise the chart’s historical accuracy, claiming a 7,939% return from 1872 to 2020, while others, like David McMinn, note its declining reliability post-1870s, with false predictions in 1965 and 1999.

 

The lack of attribution by Benner to Tritch raises questions about intellectual credit, possibly due to the chart’s informal distribution on a business card rather than a formal publication. This oversight, intentional or not, underscores the chaotic nature of early financial theory development, where ideas often spread through informal channels. The chart’s enduring appeal lies in its simplicity and cyclical view of markets, resonating with those seeking patterns in economic chaos, but its reliance on outdated assumptions (e.g., planetary influences) and inconsistent accuracy suggest it’s more a historical curiosity than a reliable tool. Modern investors are better served by combining such models with robust data-driven strategies, as the chart’s performance significantly trails a simple buy-and-hold approach ($5,432 vs. $62,414 from 1904 to 2023).

  

Reference:

 George Tritch (1872) - "Periods When to Make Money" - Business Card of George Tritch Hardware Co.

Samuel Benner (1884) - Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices (3rd. Ed.; original 1875)

 W.D. Gann (1909) - Financial Time Table 1784 - 2102

Edward R. Dewey (1967) - The Case for Cycles 

Elwynn Taylor (2004) - Crop Weather Cycles: Myth or Reality?

Martin A. Armstrong (2008) - The 8.6 Year Global Business Cycle 2002 - 2028

Charles Capriole (2020) - George Tritch Strategy from 1872 has a 90% hit rate
David McMinn (2022) - Benner Cycles & the 9/56 year grid

David Hickson (Oct 3, 2022) - The Next 20 Weeks - S&P 500 - Hurst Cycles Market Update
Lars von  Thienen (Oct 9, 2022) - Market Cycles Report - Cycles of Financial Crisis using long term static cycle models.

TPR (2015) - Future Ups and Downs into 2065. Samuel Benner’s Prophecies.

 

 The Tritch/Benner Strategy generated a return of 7,939% from 1872 to 2020.

 

See also:
TPR (December 1, 2025)  - 2026 High in the Benner Cycle: "Time to Sell Stocks and Values of all Kinds".

Future Ups and Downs into 2065 | Samuel Benner’s Prophecies

Samuel Benner, a farmer from Ohio, first published his prophecies regarding price fluctuations in 1875. The nineteenth century marked the era of Laplacian probability, Gaussian distributions, Peano curves, and the Cantor set. While mathematicians focused on discovering structures within mathematics itself, Benner devoted his efforts to developing a model of “time” as a means of forecasting future economic trends.

 
He lived during a period characterized by the Axe-Houghton Indices, the establishment of the Chicago Board of Trade, and the flourishing of agricultural commodity trading. Society at the time was deeply engaged in agriculture and the expansion of railroads, which explains why Benner’s analyses centered on commodities such as pig iron, corn, cotton, and hogs. Closely intertwined with agriculture was the emerging science of weather forecasting, which addressed critical questions: Which years would be dry or wet? When might one expect periods of extreme heat, storms, or cold? Agricultural statistics were systematically compiled and analyzed to identify patterns of demand and supply.

 
Approximately 140 years ago, Benner asserted that the future could not be reliably predicted through agricultural statistics alone. He argued that such data collection would always remain incomplete, irregular, manipulable, unreliable, and lacking in predictive power. For Benner, the axiom that “history repeats itself” implied cyclical patterns in human affairs. He further maintained that, given the widely accepted view that everything—particularly in nature—moves in cycles, these recurring patterns provided a more dependable foundation for economic forecasting.

 

 

The prediction of future economic trends, according to Samuel Benner, is achievable solely through the rigorous study of historical patterns. He asserted that history repeats itself with remarkable precision in its details, particularly from one panic year to the next. Benner was among the first to demonstrate this systematic repetition, emphasizing the cyclical nature of financial catastrophes. His model successfully anticipated crises in 1891, 1902, 1910, 1929, 1987, and 2003, among others. However, it notably failed to predict the 2009 financial crisis within his framework of nested cycles—positioned exactly 20 lunar node cycles after the 1637 Dutch Tulip Mania bust. For Benner, time constituted an immutable pattern, unaffected by wars, panics, or elections. It was relentless, periodic rather than random, and governed by unchangeable, determinable rules. He attributed business failures primarily to ignorance of these temporal principles.

Contemporary assessments may view Benner as either a mere farmer or a visionary genius, yet this does not alter his pioneering recognition of a mathematical hierarchy in time. His work was deeply informed by personal adversity: as a prosperous farmer, he suffered financial ruin during the Panic of 1873, prompting his quest to uncover underlying natural laws. To refine his data, Benner employed annual average prices for smoothing. Upon comparison, he identified recurring upward and downward cycles in a fixed sequence, comprising a larger cycle of 18–20–16 years and a smaller one of 9–10–8 years. The lows in these cycles signified periods of reaction and depression. Benner regarded these as ironclad rules, even likening them to “God in prices.”

Benner further identified an 11-year cycle in corn and hog prices, featuring alternating peaks at 4- and 6-year intervals, alongside an 11-year peak cycle in cotton prices. For pig iron, he discerned a 27-year cycle, with lows recurring every 11, 9, and 7 years, and peaks in the sequential order of 8, 9, and 10 years. He outlined a 54-year panic cycle, derived from recurring panics every 16, 18, and 20 years; this series repeated every 54 years, as he explained: “It takes panics 54 years in their order to make a revolution or to return to the same order.”
 

His book represents one of the earliest formulations of cycle and periodicity theory in financial and commodity markets, achieving considerable popularity among late-19th-century bankers and businessmen. Benner’s cycles and sequences proved effective throughout the 20th century and remain observable in contemporary price forecasting. Analysts have noted parallels between his 11-year cycle and the established 11-year sunspot cycle, the latter having been examined in modern studies, including by the Federal Reserve. Although it is unclear whether Benner directly attributed influences to sunspots, he linked cycles to weather and climate patterns and was likely familiar with prior research by figures such as Herschel and Jevons.
 

Benner did not fully elucidate the foundations of his theories but suggested: “The cause producing the periodicity and length of these cycles may be found in our solar system… It may be a meteorological fact that Jupiter is the ruling element in our price cycles of natural productions; while also it may be suggested that Saturn exerts an influence regulating the cycles in manufacture and trade.” He further posited that Uranus and Neptune “may send forth an electric influence affecting Jupiter, Saturn and, in turn, the Earth… When certain combinations are ascertained which produce one legitimate invariable manifestation from an analysis of the operations of the combined solar system, we may be enabled to discover the cause producing our price cycles, and the length of their duration.”
 

The broader 54-year cycle later received detailed treatment from Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev in 1925. Edward R. Dewey, director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, evaluated Benner’s pig iron price forecasts over a 60-year span, concluding that the cycle exhibited an exceptional gain-to-loss ratio of 45:1—deeming it “the most notable forecast of prices in existence.” 

Super Long Term Delta Cycle in the SPX