Future Ups and Downs into 2065 | Samuel Benner’s Prophecies

Samuel Benner, a farmer from Ohio, first published his prophecies regarding price fluctuations in 1875. The nineteenth century marked the era of Laplacian probability, Gaussian distributions, Peano curves, and the Cantor set. While mathematicians focused on discovering structures within mathematics itself, Benner devoted his efforts to developing a model of “time” as a means of forecasting future economic trends.

 
He lived during a period characterized by the Axe-Houghton Indices, the establishment of the Chicago Board of Trade, and the flourishing of agricultural commodity trading. Society at the time was deeply engaged in agriculture and the expansion of railroads, which explains why Benner’s analyses centered on commodities such as pig iron, corn, cotton, and hogs. Closely intertwined with agriculture was the emerging science of weather forecasting, which addressed critical questions: Which years would be dry or wet? When might one expect periods of extreme heat, storms, or cold? Agricultural statistics were systematically compiled and analyzed to identify patterns of demand and supply.

 
Approximately 140 years ago, Benner asserted that the future could not be reliably predicted through agricultural statistics alone. He argued that such data collection would always remain incomplete, irregular, manipulable, unreliable, and lacking in predictive power. For Benner, the axiom that “history repeats itself” implied cyclical patterns in human affairs. He further maintained that, given the widely accepted view that everything—particularly in nature—moves in cycles, these recurring patterns provided a more dependable foundation for economic forecasting.

 

 

The prediction of future economic trends, according to Samuel Benner, is achievable solely through the rigorous study of historical patterns. He asserted that history repeats itself with remarkable precision in its details, particularly from one panic year to the next. Benner was among the first to demonstrate this systematic repetition, emphasizing the cyclical nature of financial catastrophes. His model successfully anticipated crises in 1891, 1902, 1910, 1929, 1987, and 2003, among others. However, it notably failed to predict the 2009 financial crisis within his framework of nested cycles—positioned exactly 20 lunar node cycles after the 1637 Dutch Tulip Mania bust. For Benner, time constituted an immutable pattern, unaffected by wars, panics, or elections. It was relentless, periodic rather than random, and governed by unchangeable, determinable rules. He attributed business failures primarily to ignorance of these temporal principles.

Contemporary assessments may view Benner as either a mere farmer or a visionary genius, yet this does not alter his pioneering recognition of a mathematical hierarchy in time. His work was deeply informed by personal adversity: as a prosperous farmer, he suffered financial ruin during the Panic of 1873, prompting his quest to uncover underlying natural laws. To refine his data, Benner employed annual average prices for smoothing. Upon comparison, he identified recurring upward and downward cycles in a fixed sequence, comprising a larger cycle of 18–20–16 years and a smaller one of 9–10–8 years. The lows in these cycles signified periods of reaction and depression. Benner regarded these as ironclad rules, even likening them to “God in prices.”

Benner further identified an 11-year cycle in corn and hog prices, featuring alternating peaks at 4- and 6-year intervals, alongside an 11-year peak cycle in cotton prices. For pig iron, he discerned a 27-year cycle, with lows recurring every 11, 9, and 7 years, and peaks in the sequential order of 8, 9, and 10 years. He outlined a 54-year panic cycle, derived from recurring panics every 16, 18, and 20 years; this series repeated every 54 years, as he explained: “It takes panics 54 years in their order to make a revolution or to return to the same order.”
 

His book represents one of the earliest formulations of cycle and periodicity theory in financial and commodity markets, achieving considerable popularity among late-19th-century bankers and businessmen. Benner’s cycles and sequences proved effective throughout the 20th century and remain observable in contemporary price forecasting. Analysts have noted parallels between his 11-year cycle and the established 11-year sunspot cycle, the latter having been examined in modern studies, including by the Federal Reserve. Although it is unclear whether Benner directly attributed influences to sunspots, he linked cycles to weather and climate patterns and was likely familiar with prior research by figures such as Herschel and Jevons.
 

Benner did not fully elucidate the foundations of his theories but suggested: “The cause producing the periodicity and length of these cycles may be found in our solar system… It may be a meteorological fact that Jupiter is the ruling element in our price cycles of natural productions; while also it may be suggested that Saturn exerts an influence regulating the cycles in manufacture and trade.” He further posited that Uranus and Neptune “may send forth an electric influence affecting Jupiter, Saturn and, in turn, the Earth… When certain combinations are ascertained which produce one legitimate invariable manifestation from an analysis of the operations of the combined solar system, we may be enabled to discover the cause producing our price cycles, and the length of their duration.”
 

The broader 54-year cycle later received detailed treatment from Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev in 1925. Edward R. Dewey, director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, evaluated Benner’s pig iron price forecasts over a 60-year span, concluding that the cycle exhibited an exceptional gain-to-loss ratio of 45:1—deeming it “the most notable forecast of prices in existence.” 

2013 - Peaks in Solar Cycle #24, Stocks and Commodities

Credits: John Hampson

... Solar peaks occur roughly every 11 years and secular peaks in equities and commodities occur close to solar peaks. There is a sine wave in long term real stocks and an opposite-polarity sine wave in long term real commodities, both which have around a 33 year (equivalent to 3 solar cycles or 1 lunisolar cycle) duration ... Treasuries (or inverse rates/yields) move in around a 66 year cycle (2 lunisolar cycles) with peaks and troughs converging with secular commodities peaks. The result is we see two different kinds of secular commodities bulls: one set against rates moving to a peak, and one set against rates moving to nothing ...

The K-Wave: Heretical Thoughts & Practical Understandings | Tony Plummer

 Credits: MARKET TECHNICIAN - Issue 59 – July 2007.

The Sixth Kondratiev Long Wave Cycle

 

The Sun, the Moon, and the Number 56 | David McMinn

A 56-year cycle has been established in trends of US and western European financial crises since 1760 (Funk 1932; McMinn 1996). Clearly, many major financial crises are precipitated by some mechanism, as they tend to occur preferentially in patterns of the 56-year cycle and not as random events. Numerous cosmic factors were examined for some link with the timing of financial crises.

 

Traditional astrology and sunspots were the initial areas favoured for assessment, but no significance could be realized. This is hardly surprising, as rigorous research has offered little support for astrological theory (Dean and Mather 1978; Culver and Ianna 1984). However, the 56-year cycle was found to correlate very closely with cycles of the sun and moon.

The author believes changing mob psychology forms the basis of cycles of financial crises. This repetitive cycle of speculative frenzy, panic, and pessimism has persisted throughout modern economic history; people learn very little from the greed and foolishness of the preceding generation. People are hypothesized to undergo alterations in mass mood in accordance with changing sun-moon cycles. Financial crises occur when there is a sudden shift in sentiment from optimism to fear.

This paper follows directly on from the work of McMinn (1996). The underscored years are listed as major crises by Kindleberger (1989).

Solunar Cycles: The nodal cycle (or nutation cycle) equals 18.6 years. The north and south nodes are two hypothetical points, 180° apart on the ecliptic circle, where the plane of the earth’s orbit around the sun (the ecliptic) is intersected by the plane of the moon’s orbit around the earth. (The moon’s orbit is inclined at 5° to the ecliptic.) The ascending (north) node is the point where the moon crosses from below to above the ecliptic. The descending (south) node is where the moon crosses from above to below the ecliptic. The moon’s north node takes 18.6 years (one nodal cycle) to complete one cycle retrograde (clockwise) through the ecliptic circle.

The solar year equals 365.24 days. This is the time the sun takes to complete one cycle of the ecliptic circle. This time unit forms the basis of the 56-year sequences, the 36-year subcycles (9, 18, 36, 54 years), and the various artifact subcycles (10/20 years, 13/26/52 years, etc.).

The eclipse year equals 346.62 days. This is the time the sun takes to complete one cycle, north node to north node. For an eclipse to take place, the sun-moon-earth must align in a straight line, which can only happen when the sun and moon are near the north and/or south node. A solar eclipse (partial or total) can occur only when a new moon (i.e., the sun is 0° to the moon) is within about 19° of the nodes. Similarly, a lunar eclipse may only be evident when a full moon (i.e., the sun and moon are 180° apart) is within about 12° of these points.

The saros cycle equals 18.03 years. It has been widely appreciated for millennia and was known to the ancient Babylonian astronomer-priests. Every 223 lunar months (one saros cycle), the sun, moon, and the moon’s nodes align in the same relative angles to each other within a fraction of a degree. One saros cycle of 18 solar years is equal to 19 eclipse years.

The half-saros cycle equals 9 years. Every 9 solar years (or 9.5 eclipse years), the moon’s mean relative position is the same angle to the north node, with the sun 180° on the opposite side of the zodiac.

The 56-year cycle. Every 56 years, the sun conjuncts (0° angle) the moon’s north node in almost the same zodiacal position (3° clockwise) and on the same date (minus three or four days). Every 56 solar years (or 59 eclipse years), the sun’s relative position is approximately the same angle to the north node, with the moon 180° on the opposite side of the zodiac.

A similar alignment of solunar cycles occurs every 56 years (692.5 lunar months), as is evident for the half saros (111.5 lunar months) (see Table 1). The 5 in the latter two figures result in alternating solar/lunar eclipses and full/new moons every 111.5 and 692.5 lunar months, respectively.
These cycles—based on the angles 0° and 180° between the sun, moon, and nodes—repeat to within one degree. This is an astonishing astronomical fluke.

 

Solar year: one cycle of the sun from spring equinox to spring equinox; equal to 365.2422 days
Eclipse year: one cycle of the sun from north node to north node; equal to 346.6200 days.
Synodic month: interval between two successive new moons; equals 29.5306 days
Tropical month: one 360° cycle of the zodiac (tropical) by the moon; equal to 27.3216 days.
Nodical month: one cycle of the moon from north node to north node; equal to 27.2122 days.

 

Note: These are average figures. Perturbations exist in the motions of the earth and moon around the sun and deviations from these figures are evident.
 

These 9- and 56-year solunar cycles would not arise if the radii of either the earth-sun or earth-moon orbits varied a little from their current mean distance. The reasons for the importance of 0°/180° angles in these two cycles is unknown, though it may be related to the fact that the north and south nodes are always 180° apart in zodiacal and aspectual circles.

Perturbations. Most importantly, solunar cycles are expressed in terms of mean periods, with considerable fluctuations around the averages. For example, the zodiacal position of the moon may vary by as much as 8° from its mean position.

Sergey Tarassov: DJIA 1789 - 2009 vs Kondratieff Cycle