Wednesday, January 27, 2016

The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns

U.S. Global Investors (Jan 27, 2016) - This table shows the ebb and flow of commodity prices over the past decade.

Thursday, January 21, 2016

SoLunar Map February - March 2016

This chart depicts the solunar bias for short-term movements of stock indices two months ahead. The markets are certainly influenced also by
other planetary forces - especially longer-term - but a 3-5 day short-term rhythm and pattern is governed by the solunar forces (= 4 highs and
4 lows per lunar month). The solunar forces are a composite of Sun-Moon angles, orbital eccentricities, declinations and some long-term cycles.
A Low in the SoLunar Map frequently is a High in the stock market and vice versa. Inversions occur, and if so, they should occur only once every
4 lunar months around a New Moon (max +/- 7 days). The solunar rhythm is frequently disturbed by (1.) the FED, and (2.) by sudden solar activity,
altering the geomagnetic field, and hence the mass mood. This can result in the skip and/or inversion of pivots in the SoLunar Map. An increasing
number of sunspots and flares have usually a negative influence on the stock market some 48 hours later, and vice versa (Ap values > 10 are
usually short-term negative). A rising blue line in the SoLunar Map means the bias for the market is side-ways-to-up, and vice versa. Highs and
lows in the SoLunar Map also may coincide with the start and termination of complex, side-ways correction patterns like zig-zags, triangles or
flags. Upcoming turn-days are: Jan 28 (Thu), Feb 01 (Mon), Feb 04 (Thu), Feb 08 (Mon), Feb 11 (Thu), Feb 15 (Mon), Feb 26 (Fri), Mar 01 (Tue),
Mar 05 (Sat), Mar 08 (Tue), Mar 12 (Sat), Mar 16 (Wed), Mar 19 (Sat), Mar 23 (Wed), Mar 27 (Sun), Mar 30 (Wed), Apr 03 (Sun). Cross check these
dates with the Cosmic Cluster Days, the Bradley Indices, and Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees. Previous SoLunar Maps
Please note: since around Jan 13th the correlation flipped = now Low in the SoLunar Map is Low in the SPX; a High  in the etc.

Cosmic Cluster Days in February - March 2016

The basic assumption here is that heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets are related to financial market movements.
A signal is triggered when the composite line of all aspects breaks above or below the Average Cosmic Noise Channel.
Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) are: Jan 24 (Sun), Feb 07 (Sun), Feb 09 (Tue), Feb 18 (Thu), Feb 22 (Mon), Mar 03 (Thu), Mar 10 (Thu),
Mar 23 (Wed), Mar 28 (Mon), Mar 30 (Wed), Apr 04 (Mon).
Previous CCDs are

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

SPX - Heading to the 4th wave of lesser degree

Monday, January 25th could well be the low of the year. If that date fails, mid and late February and mid March would be the next
likely dates for major lows. See also 
Tom DeMark said January 20th was an interim low that would be followed by a 5-8% rebound (HERE).

Saturday, January 16, 2016

Breakeaven Oil Price - Towards The Collapse Of Saudi Arabia

Thierry Meyssan (Jan 11, 2016) - [...] The fall of the House of Saud may be provoked by a reduction in the price of oil. Incapable of reforming its life-style, the kingdom is borrowing hand over fist, to the point that according to financial analysts, it will probably collapse within two years. The partial sale of Aramco may temporarily postpone its demise, but this will only be possible at the cost of a loss of autonomy. The decapitation of Sheikh al-Nimr will have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. The fall of Saudi Arabia is now inevitable because there is no hope left for the people who live there. The country will be plunged into a mixture of tribal revolts and social revolutions which will be far more murderous than the previous Middle-Eastern conflicts.

Costs of Oil Production 2015 - Enlarge (Credits: Aargam)
Far from acting to prevent this tragic end, the US protectors of the kingdom are awaiting it with impatience. They continually praise Prince Mohammed’s «wisdom», as if encouraging him to make even more mistakes. Already in September 2001, the US Committee of the Chiefs of Staff were working on a map for the re-modelling of the «wider Middle East », which planned for the separation of the country into five states. In July 2002, Washington was considering ways of getting rid of the Saud family, during a famous session of the Defense Policy Board. From now on, it’s just a matter of time. Keep in mind: The United States have managed to solve the question of the succession of King Abdallah, but today, they are attempting to lead Saudi Arabia into error. Their objective is now to divide the countrry into five states. Wahhabism is the state religion, but the power of the Saud family, both interior and exterior, depends exclusively on Sunni tribes, while it subjects all other populations to apartheid. King Salman (80 years old) leaves the exercise of power to one of his children, Prince Mohammed (30 years old). The Prince has seized control of his country’s major companies, has declared war on Yemen, and has just executed the leader of the opposition, Sheikh al-Nimr." 

 According to the 2015 budget that Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud unveiled on December 28, the Gulf state that is the symbol of oil producing and exporting countries will face a 367-billion-riyal deficit this year, which is about USD 87.0 billion. Saudi Arabia has never seen a budget deficit of such proportion; it is a historical record and equivalent to 15% of its gross domestic product (GDP). Saudi Arabia is directly and indirectly involved in four wars (Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Libya) and is trying to make sure that the government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Egypt does not implode. In Syria, the Saudis are trying to overthrow President Assad and the costs have increased dramatically. On Saturday, January 16th the Saudi Arabia Tadawful stock index slumped 7% to its lowest level in five years after Brent oil fell below USD 29 a barrel. While all stock markets on the Arabian peninsula tumbled, the Iranian stock index gained one percent, making it one of the best performing markets in the world with gains of six percent since the start of the year (HERE).

SPX vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

SPX vs SoLunar Map

SPX vs Jupiter-Saturn Cycle

SPX vs Mercury-Mars Speed Differential

SPX vs Mercury Speed

SPX vs Lunar Speed

Iris Treppner's DAX Forecast 2012-2021 - Update


Friday, January 8, 2016

DJIA In 4th Longest Bull Market Since 1900 - UBS: Sell Stocks, Buy Gold!

Bear markets are defined by a market decline of 20% and more. It’s a fact that since its March 2009 low, with 82 months and a performance of 220%, the DJIA now trades in its 4th longest and 5th strongest bull market since 1900. So from this angle alone we suggest the 2009 bull cycle has reached a mature stage [...] since 1937 the average downside in a 7-year cycle decline was 34%. 

[...] As of 2017, gold could profit from the US dollar moving in a major top and starting a bear market [...] In 2015, the bounce in gold was weaker than expected. However, in all these cases we made it clear that we just expect a bear market rally before resuming its dominant cyclical bear trend. Generally, our cyclical roadmap and our long-term call on gold of the last few years has not changed. A potential bottom in 2016 bottom could be a rather powerful bottom, since together with a four-year cycle low we have also an eight-year cycle low projection for this year. In this context we expect a potential 2016 low in gold to be the basis of a new multi-year bull market. Source: UBS (Jan 06, 2016)

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

SPX vs Declination of Mercury + Venus

Mercury parallel Venus

2016 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA

Since 1834 the U.S.-stock market has been positive 10 (56%) out of 18 times in the 6th year of every decade, and the average annual gain of a 6th year was 3.74%. Since the 1970s the DJIA gained 16% to 26% during the 6th year of each decade. On average the DJIA's 6th year in the Decennial Cycle, the Annual or Seasonal Cycle and the Presidential Cycle are all positive. In the average Decennial Cycle the DJIA scores the Low of the 6th Year in late January, rises into mid July, drops into September, before surging for the rest of the year. The Presidential Cycle drops from an early January High to a late February Low, rises into early April, drops to late May, rises again into early September, drops to early October before rising into the year-end.

Credits: Seasonal Charts


Monday, January 4, 2016

When Not To Put Money In The Bank - Negative Interest Rates in Europe

econfix (Jan 4, 2016) - It seems that in Europe negative interest rates are common place. Below are the current rates of some central banks:
European Central Bank -0.3%
Swiss National Bank -0.75%;
Danish Central bank -0.75%
Swedish Central Bank -1.1%
Why are they in negative territory? For all these countries it is the exchange rate against the Euro that is important. Negative interest rates weaken a country’s currency and make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. Furthermore central banks could be trying to prevent a slide into deflation, or a spiral of falling prices that could derail the recovery.
In theory, interest rates below zero should reduce borrowing costs for companies and households, driving demand for loans. In practice, there’s a risk that the policy might do more harm than good. If banks make more customers pay to hold their money, cash may go under the mattress instead. Janet Yellen, the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, said at her confirmation hearing in November 2013 that even a deposit rate that’s positive but close to zero could disrupt the money markets that help fund financial institutions. Two years later, she said that a change in economic circumstances could put negative rates “on the table” in the U.S., and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said he could now cut the benchmark rate below the current 0.5 percent if necessary. Deutsche Bank economists note that negative rates haven’t sparked the bank runs or cash hoarding some had feared, in part because banks haven’t passed them on to their customers. But there’s still a worry that when banks absorb the cost themselves, it squeezes the profit margin between their lending and deposit rates, and might make them even less willing to lend. Ever-lower rates also fuel concern that countries are engaged in a currency war of competitive devaluations. Source: Bloomberg