Unlocking the "Years-Ending-in-5" Market Signal | Jake Bernstein

One of the most reliable patterns I’ve observed in markets appears in years ending in the number five. It is simple: take the January high of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If the market records two consecutive monthly closes above that high, history shows a strong rally often follows into early December or even year-end. This is a purely mechanical setup; without the two closes, the pattern remains dormant.

Detrended Weekly Seasonal Composite Future chart for the S&P 500 from 1942 to 2024.

Looking back, the results are striking. In 1995, the trigger led to a more than twenty percent advance. 1985 produced roughly fifteen percent, 1975 seven to ten percent, and even 1965, after a brief pullback, ended higher by about five percent. Earlier examples include 1955 with fifteen percent, and 1935 and 1945 each with nearly thirty percent rallies. Not every “five” year triggers the setup—as in 2005 and 2015—but when it does, the outcome has consistently favored the bulls.

 Dow Jones (monthly bars), 2025.

» If the market records two consecutive monthly closes above the January high, history shows a strong rally often follows into year-end. This is a purely mechanical setup; without the two closes, the pattern remains dormant. « 

In 2025, we already have one monthly close above the January high [¿?]. If October confirms with a second [¿? would be the third], the trigger will be set. With only November and December remaining, history suggests that these final months could deliver substantial gains, just as in previous “five” years.

Not every “5” year produces a trigger (e.g., 2015, 2005),

but when it does, the outcome has often been significant.

 

The pattern is neither perfect nor guaranteed, but the Dow’s record demonstrates that when it occurs, the probabilities strongly favor a significant year-end advance.

Reference:
Jake Bernstein (October 2, 2025) - Unlocking the Years-Ending-in-5 Market Signal. (video)

Detrended Weekly Seasonal Composite for the S&P 500 from 2001 to 2025.

See also:

Jake Bernstein (2025) - seasonaltrader.com
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 2, 2025) - S&P 500 Year-End Outlook: Strong Seasonal Setup Targets 7100.

Wayne Whaley (September 27, 2025) - S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September.  

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

S&P 500 Year-End Outlook: Strong Seasonal Setup Targets 7100 | Jeff Hirsch

The S&P 500 heads into Q4 with strong momentum after setting September all-time highs, a rare event that has almost always preceded year-end rallies. 

 

Post-Election Year most bullish in 4-Year Presidential Cycle since 1985.

The post-election year is historically the most bullish phase of the four-year cycle, and 2025’s unusually strong May–October stretch strengthens the case for further gains.

September new all-time highs historically bullish for Q4.

 

S&P 500 performance after top 20 greatest Worst Six Months (May-October):

No losses in Q4 and up >5% since 1950.

 

Q4 Market Magic. 

  

October’s volatility often marks a final shakeout before the market’s “Best Six Months” (November–April) and the NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” (November–June). These periods, long captured by tactical switching strategies, have consistently outperformed and now align with a market already in record territory.

 

2026 Outlook: Midterm Bottom Picker's Paradise.

50% Profit Possible from 2026 Low to 2027 High.

 

Recent pullbacks tied to AI earnings and fiscal risks have been shallow, leaving breadth and trend intact. With growth solid, inflation contained, and policy bias shifting toward support, the seasonal and macro backdrop favors continuation of the bull run. We project the S&P 500 to reach 7,100 by year-end, a gain of roughly 20 percent.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 30, 2025) - S&P 7100 By Yearend! Your Roadmap to a Monster Q4 Rally. (video)

 

See also:

Jeff Hirsch (September 25, 2025) - October Seasonality of US Stock Indexes in Post-Election Years. 

Wayne Whaley (September 27, 2025) - S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September. 

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September | Wayne Whaley

Since 1950, whenever the S&P 500 gained 10% or more in the first three quarters and September was positive, the fourth quarter has historically been positive 80% of the time (16 out of 20 years). The average gain for the fourth quarter during these years is 4.42%. The best performance observed was +11.36%, while the worst was a loss of -1.26%.

Looking at 2025, as of September 27, with only two trading days left in the month, the first three quarters of the year have seen a total gain of 12.96%, with 2.84% of that gain coming from September alone.

 

October: The market has been negative in October 55% of the time (9 years up, 11 down) with an average loss of -0.44%. The best performance was +4.46%, while the worst was -6.86%.

October 20–27: During this specific period, the market has been down 80% of the time (4 years up, 16 down), with an average decline of -1.29%. The best performance was +1.22%, and the worst was -8.23%.

November: In contrast, November has been positive 80% of the time (16 years up, 4 down), with an average gain of +3.41%. The best was a gain of +10.24%, while the worst was a decline of -1.89%.

December: December has been positive 75% of the time (15 years up, 5 down), with an average gain of +1.47%. The best performance was +5.25%, and the worst was -3.39%.

Combining November and December, the performance has been positive 90% of the time (18 years up, 2 down), with an average gain of 4.81%. The best combined performance was +13.57%, while the worst was a modest -0.45%.

The average absolute drawdown in the fourth quarter was -2.66%. The worst was -8.64%, though the period also saw potential upside gains of up to +12.00%.

  

Reference:

Wayne Whaley, September 27, 2025.

 

 

 

See also:

Jeff Hirsch (September 25, 2025) - October Seasonality of US Stock Indexes in Post-Election Years.
Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.  

The 10-Year Cycle | W.D. Gann

Stocks move in 10-year cycles, which are worked out in 5-year cycles – a 5-year cycle up and a 5-year cycle down. Begin with extreme tops and extreme bottoms to figure all cycles, either major or minor.

 The 10-Year Cycle according to L.H. Weston, W.D. Gann's Professor, 1923.

 

Rule 1 - A bull campaign generally runs 5 years – 2 years up, 1 year down, and 2 years up, completing a 5-year cycle. The end of a 5-year campaign comes in the 59th or 60th months. Always watch for the change in the 59th month.

Rule 2 - A bear cycle often runs 5 years down – the first move 2 years down, then 1 year up, and 2 years down, completing the 5-year downswing.

Rule 3 - Bull or Bear campaigns seldom run more than 3 to 3½ years up or down without a move of 3 to 6 months or one year in the opposite direction, except at the end of Major Cycles, like 1869 and 1929. Many campaigns, culminate in the 23rd month, not running out the full two years. Watch the weekly and monthly charts to determine whether the culmination will occur in the 23rd, 24th, 27th or 30th month of the move, or in extreme campaigns in the 34th to 35th or 41st to 42nd month.

Rule 4 - Adding 10 years to any top, it will give you top of the next 10-year cycle, repeating about the same average fluctuations.

Rule 5 - Adding 10 years to any bottom, it will give you the bottom of the next 10-year cycle, repeating the same kind of a year and about the same average fluctuations.

Rule 6 - Bear campaigns often run out in 7-year cycles, or 3 years and 4 years from any completed bottom. From any complete bottom of a cycle, first add 3 years to get the next bottom; then add 4 years to that bottom to get bottom of 7-year cycle. For example: 1914 bottom – add 3 years, gives 1917, low of panic; then add 4 years to 1917, gives 1921, low of another depression.

Rule 7 - To any final major or minor top, add 3 years to get the next top; then add 3 years to that top, which will give you the third top; add 4 years to the third top to get the final top of the 10-year cycle. Sometimes a change in trend from any top occurs before the end of the regular time period, therefore, you should begin to watch the 27th, 34th, and 42nd month for a reversal.

Rule 8 - Adding 5 years to any top, it will give the next bottom of a 5-year cycle. In order to get top of the next 5-year cycle, add 5 years to any bottom. For example: 1917 was bottom of a big bear campaign; add 5 years gives 1922, top of a minor bull campaign. Why do I say, “Top of a minor bull campaign?” Because the major bull campaign was due to end in 1929.

1919 was top; adding 5 years to 1919 gives 1924 as bottom of a 5-year bear cycle. Refer to Rules 1 and 2, which tell you that a bull or bear campaign seldom runs more than 2 to 3 years in the same direction. The bear campaign from 1919 was 2 years down – 1920 and 1921; therefore, we only expect one-year rally in 1922; then 2 years down – 1923 and 1924, which completes a 5-year bear cycle.

» The ten-year cycle continues to repeat, but the greatest advances and declines occur at the end of the 20-year and 30-year cycles, and again at the end of the 50-year and 60-year cycles, which are stronger than the others. «

Looking back to 1913 and 1914, you will see that 1923 and 1924 must be bear years to complete the 10-year cycle from the bottoms of 1913-1914. Then note 1917 bottom of the bear year; adding 7 years gives 1924 also as bottom of a bear cycle. Then, adding 5 years to 1924 gives 1929 top of a cycle.

 

Quoted from:
W.D. Gann (1950s) - Stock Market Course (p. 217).

 

 

See also: 

W.D. Gann (1950s) - Forecasting Monthly, Weekly, and Daily Moves.

W.D. Gann (1950s) - Natural Resistance Levels and Time Cycle Points.

 

 Larry Williams  (2003) - The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years.

The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics

Excluding the specifics of the decennial and presidential cycles, the average annual cycle of the S&P 500 since 2004 reveals five consistent seasonal periods, three of which are suitable for high-probability swing trades (90%+):

 

S&P 500 average annual cycle (2014-2024).

Since the S&P rises 70% of the time, bearish trends are less consistent than bullish ones. 

The average annual performance of this seasonal strategy was +18.91%.  

# 1: Mid-February to Late-March Decline: Price action shows an important top between February 14 and 15, followed by a bearish trend lasting into March 20. 

 

 Bearish from February 14-15 High to March 20 Low (2004-2023).

Average move lower: -2.35% (during 12 out of 20 years, down = 60%).

[ ¡ stats in tab referring to February 15 to March 1 (not March 20) - typo, error ?]

# 2: Late-March Rebound: Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has risen 18 times between March 23 and April 27.

 

 Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023).

Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

# 3: July Rally: Since 2009, the S&P 500 has always risen between June 27 and July 25. Not most years. Every single year.

 

 Bullish from June 27 Low to July 25 High (2009-2023).

Average move higher: +4.27% (during 15 out of 15 years, up = 100%).

 

# 4: September Chop: Lack of clear bullish or bearish trends; tentatively sideways to down.

 

September chop between September 1 High to September 30 Low (2009-2023).

Average move higher: +2.77%. Average move lower: -2.63% (during 8 out of 15 years, down = 53%).

# 5: November Rally:  S&P 500 consistently rising since 2004 and averaging a 4.88% gain.

 

Bullish from October 25 Low to November 30 High (2004-2023)

Average move higher: +4.88% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

Reference:

BeSomebodyFX (January 14, 2025) - The S&P 500's Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns. With statistics.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonality (2000-2025).

 

February averaged 0.1% gain over the past 

five decades, with positive results at 56%.

 

Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs

as a % of total Assets Under Management (1996-January 2025).

Fed Policy-Driven Super Rallies and Corrections in US Stocks | Sven Henrich

The US market is at a critical juncture with a contentious election, a Fed meeting, and numerous earnings reports on the horizon. A significant liquidity rally is underway, raising hopes for a year-end rally, yet concerns about a potential corrective move linger, especially after an 11-month rise. Despite strong bullish sentiment, skepticism remains due to insufficient changes in underlying conditions and earnings not meeting expectations. The S&P 500 is now at approximately 5,800, with some analysts projecting levels as high as 6,600, but these optimistic forecasts prompt concerns about sustainability.

Super rallies and corrections in the S&P, driven by interest rate cuts and hikes (2016–2024).

 

Liquidity-driven super rallies, influenced by Fed policy on interest rates, are characterized by prolonged market increases with minimal price discovery. The first major super rally in the above chart followed the earnings recession of 2015-2016, fueled by tax cuts and global quantitative easing. Subsequent rallies occurred despite rate hikes, indicating a strong influence from central banks and government policies. These rallies often persist until liquidity conditions shift, such as through rate increases or unexpected events. 

 

Currently, global central banks are signaling easing policies, contributing to the ongoing liquidity rally. Fiscal dominance, marked by significant deficits, plays a crucial role in this environment. The unprecedented $1.6 trillion deficit in 2023 raises questions about recession potential amid fiscal stimulus. Past experiences show that downside movements typically arise when liquidity changes. The current market situation highlights a disconnect between strong policy support and underlying economic conditions. Overall, these factors suggest that the rally extend through the end of the year or into 2025, but risks remain.

 

Reference:

Sven Henrich (October 27, 2024) - NorthCast Market Update: Markets at a Crossroad. (video)

Markets expect the Federal Open Market Committee to 

cut interest rates again by 0.25% on Thursday, November 7.

 

The median Nasdaq 100 (NDX) return from October 27th to December 31st is +11.74% since 1985.  
The median S&P 500 return from October 27th to December 31st in election years is +6.25% since 1928. 

— Goldman Sachs, October 27, 2024.

 

See also:
Sven Henrich (January 14, 2024) - The Cynic’s Guide to Markets.

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Presidential Election Cycle 2024 - 2027

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Presidential Election Cycle 2024 - 2027.
4 Year Presidential Cycle in line with the Decennial Cycle.

The chart above is an attempt to merge the Decennial Cycle with the Four-Year Presidential Election Cycle by creating a composite of all US presidential elections that took place since 1900 in the fourth year of a decade (1904, 1924, 1944, 1964, 1984, 2004). 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Election Year 2024.

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for Q4 of the Election Year 2024.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for October of the Election Year 2024.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for November of the Election Year 2024.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for December of the Election Year 2024.

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Post-Election Year 2025.

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for Q1 of the Post-Election Year 2025.

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Midterm Year 2026.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Pre-Election Year 2027.

Cross check dates with historical trends, price probabilities, news calendar, Hurst cycles, etc.

The four-year presidential election cycle has a profound impact on the economy and the stock market, with a distinct pattern emerging over time. Notably, the four-year cycle has become a more significant driver of market behavior than the decennial cycle, except in extraordinary years such as those ending in five and eight. In recent decades, the US has experienced a period of unprecedented prosperity, with returns distributed relatively evenly across the decade. Fourth years, in particular, have tended to perform better than average. Looking back, the last six election years ending in four (2004, 1984, 1964, 1944, 1924, and 1904) the S&P 500 averaged a full-year gain of 14%.

 Decennial Cycle: Average annual change in the DJIA (1881-2023).

The 5th year is by far the best year of the decennial cycle. In the Dow Jones Industrial Average out of the last 14 "5th years", 12 were up averaging a return of 26% per year. The only two 5th years that have ever been negative in the history of the DJIA were 2005 (-0.61%) and 2015 (-2.2%).

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025. 

TPR - Seasonality.

S&P 500 Election Year Pattern during Fourth Years of a Decade, 1904 - 2024

Seasonal Pattern of the S&P 500 in U.S. Election Years during Fourth Years of a Decade (1904-2024): Composite Line of Election Years (1904, 1924, 1944, 1964, 1984, and 2004; based on daily closes from Stooq) vs. S&P 500 Performance from January 1 to September 27, 2024 (y-axis scale: percentages).

Same values with different scaling of the y-axis.

See also:

Wayne Whaley (September 21, 2024) - S&P 500 in Q4 After New 12-Month High in September.

Tom McClellan (March 29, 2024) - Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for US Stock Market.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2020) - Election-Year October Market Performance Volatile since 1950.

2016 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA — January 5, 2016.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025.

Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for US Stock Market | Tom McClellan

One of the big picture forecasting tools is crude oil prices as a leading indication for the overall stock market. The first chart shows crude oil prices back to 1890 compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average plotted on logarithmic scales. The price of crude oil is shifted forward by 10 years. The correlation isn't always perfect, but generally speaking, when there is a rise in crude oil prices, 10 years later, there is a rise in the stock market. When crude oil prices go flat, the stock market goes flat. 

We are not yet quite at that 10 year echo point in stocks, which would equate to June of 2024, 10 years after crude oil peaked. That means the next few years are not going to be so great, especially between now and early 2026. Early 2026 will be a great time for investors to ride the stock market long all the way to 2028. 

 

Quoted from:
Tom McClellan (Mar 28, 2024) - 'Unpleasant Time' Ahead For Stock Market. (video)