The Illusion of Control: The Fed's Quiet Coup d'État | Gerry Nolan

As Mike Lee states, the Executive Branch was meant to be under the President’s executive branch and direction. And yet, the Fed remains the ultimate untouchable, a fortress of financial power immune to democratic oversight or any real accountability. Let’s face it: The Fed is not about serving the people; it’s the nerve center of a Ponzi scheme so vast that it makes Wall Street look like pocket change.

 » The Federal Reserve isn’t a public service, it’s the vault where the
sovereignty of the American people was locked away a century ago. «

For over a century, the Fed has held the American economy in a chokehold, dictating monetary policy in ways that serve the banking elites and global financiers, while keeping citizens in perpetual debt-enslavement. It’s not a “politically independent institution” as they like to spin it - it’s a profit machine, designed to siphon wealth upwards and keep the masses at bay with breadcrumbs of credit and endless inflation.

 » The Fed is a profit machine, designed to siphon wealth upwards and keep

 the masses at bay with breadcrumbs of credit and endless inflation. «

The Fed controls interest rates, injects trillions into the economy at will, and manipulates the currency supply, all without a single vote from the American people. True sovereignty would mean a government with control over its own currency, accountable to its citizens, not be held to private bankers. But ending the Fed? That would mean dismantling the very backbone of U.S. financial imperialism, a move that would bring about sovereign economic control, yet will never happen under the current system of oligarchic “democracy.”

The real question isn’t whether Trump (or any president) could rein in the Fed; it’s whether the American people will ever realize that the Federal Reserve isn’t a public service, it’s the vault where their own sovereignty was locked away a century ago.

The Fed's Ponzi machine may be untouchable, but the illusion of freedom is slipping. How long until the curtain falls?

Quoted from:

Gerry Nolan (November 9, 2024) - The Illusion of Control: The Fed's Quiet Coup d'État.

Fed Policy-Driven Super Rallies and Corrections in US Stocks | Sven Henrich

The US market is at a critical juncture with a contentious election, a Fed meeting, and numerous earnings reports on the horizon. A significant liquidity rally is underway, raising hopes for a year-end rally, yet concerns about a potential corrective move linger, especially after an 11-month rise. Despite strong bullish sentiment, skepticism remains due to insufficient changes in underlying conditions and earnings not meeting expectations. The S&P 500 is now at approximately 5,800, with some analysts projecting levels as high as 6,600, but these optimistic forecasts prompt concerns about sustainability.

Super rallies and corrections in the S&P, driven by interest rate cuts and hikes (2016–2024).

 

Liquidity-driven super rallies, influenced by Fed policy on interest rates, are characterized by prolonged market increases with minimal price discovery. The first major super rally in the above chart followed the earnings recession of 2015-2016, fueled by tax cuts and global quantitative easing. Subsequent rallies occurred despite rate hikes, indicating a strong influence from central banks and government policies. These rallies often persist until liquidity conditions shift, such as through rate increases or unexpected events. 

 

Currently, global central banks are signaling easing policies, contributing to the ongoing liquidity rally. Fiscal dominance, marked by significant deficits, plays a crucial role in this environment. The unprecedented $1.6 trillion deficit in 2023 raises questions about recession potential amid fiscal stimulus. Past experiences show that downside movements typically arise when liquidity changes. The current market situation highlights a disconnect between strong policy support and underlying economic conditions. Overall, these factors suggest that the rally extend through the end of the year or into 2025, but risks remain.

 

Reference:

Sven Henrich (October 27, 2024) - NorthCast Market Update: Markets at a Crossroad. (video)

Markets expect the Federal Open Market Committee to 

cut interest rates again by 0.25% on Thursday, November 7.

 

The median Nasdaq 100 (NDX) return from October 27th to December 31st is +11.74% since 1985.  
The median S&P 500 return from October 27th to December 31st in election years is +6.25% since 1928. 

— Goldman Sachs, October 27, 2024.

 

See also:
Sven Henrich (January 14, 2024) - The Cynic’s Guide to Markets.

Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices | Richard Smith

 NASDAQ (4-hour closes) - at the top of an 82-day cycle swing.

  E-mini S&P 500 (daily closes) - at the top of an 81-day cycle swing.

S&P 500 (weekly closes) 2017-2024 vs. 180-week cycle composites of all major US stock indices.

Reference:
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities endgame? Cycles are screaming caution! (video)

 

Hurst Cycles Market Update — David Hickson, October 28, 2024.

Hurst Cycles in the S&P 500 — David Hickson, October 9, 2024.

2024 Economic Forecast │ James Kim

The interest rate changes in the United States trigger international capital movements, which are reflected in the Dow Jones Index, an indicator of such movements. To predict future economic conditions, understanding the trends in U.S. interest rates and the Dow Jones Index can provide insights into both the U.S. and global economies. To comprehend the economic situation from 2023 to 2024, it's observable that the patterns of interest rates and Dow Jones Index during 2006-2007 are similar. The period when the U.S. continuously raises interest rates and then freezes them, leading up to a rate cut, is known as the 'Goldilocks' period, which is typically a phase of a major bull market in stocks.

 

 To aid your understanding, I have specified concrete dates. 

Think of these as reference points, focusing on the patterns and the dates surrounding them.

 

 When interest rates are frozen consecutively three times (Point (d)), the market gains confidence that there will be no further rate hikes. Similar to 2006, when three consecutive rate freezes led to breaking historical highs, the same pattern was observed on December 13, 2023, breaking the historical high of January 4, 2022 (Point (f) ).

 

The peak of the U.S. economy is predicted to be on May 8, 2024, with the U.S. stock market artificially creating a peak for about six months (until the first rate cut). The global economy, with the decline of the U.S. dollar, moves towards a strong bull market in individual countries. The magic of exchange rates creates opportunities for profit through currency differences and stock appreciation, leading to a surge in global stock markets. Global and U.S. stock markets are expected to start declining simultaneously around November 15, 2024 (just before the U.S. rate cut). At this point, the U.S. economy would have been declining for about six months from its peak, while the global economy, excluding the U.S., remains stable.

I believe there are signs of a weakening U.S. economy, which will lead to the start of interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. Eventually, about a year later on December 12, 2025, both the U.S. and the world will face an economic crisis. The peak of the U.S. economy is expected in May, while the global economy is predicted to peak in the second quarter of 2025 [...] I hope you too can achieve favorable outcomes during this time.

(1. - 4.) On August 2, 2023, through my posts, I predicted the breaking of the historical high of the Dow Jones Index and the freezing of U.S. interest rates (the Goldilocks period). I forecasted the peak of the stock market, the timing of the economic crisis, and all phases up to the great depression in 2032. By looking at my past Twitter posts, one can see that the results are following the same patterns exactly as predicted. My posts will be helpful to understand these patterns: 

(1.) Prediction of the 13th and 14th Cycles of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): This post outlines my predictions for the 13th and 14th cycles of the U.S. stock market and its potential trajectory. 

(2.) Forecast for the 14th and Current 15th Cycle (Great Depression Period) of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): In this tweet, I discuss the ongoing 15th cycle and its connection to the anticipated great depression period.
(3.) Prediction for the 14th and Current 15th Cycle of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): This tweet further elaborates on my predictions for the 14th and current 15th cycle of the U.S. stock market.
(4.) Estimation of the Dow Jones Lowest Point, Interest Rate Freeze (Goldilocks Period), and Major Bull Market (August 3, 2023): This post from August 3, 2023, predicts the lowest point of the Dow Jones, the freezing of interest rates (Goldilocks period), and the onset of a major bull market.

Quoted from:

James Kim @ X (Jan 2, 2024) - 2024 Economic Forecast.

Avoiding Default By Destroying Others | The War-And-Pillage Business Model

The US started talking again about a possible default. However, while a default is technically possible, it is unlikely for now. A default would have immediate severe consequences for the US themselves. Their entire war economy would collapse. And why default now? So far continued destruction of other countries has proved to be a lucrative alternative, attracted investors and directed gigantic capital flows to the US.

 

 Wonders of a War-And-Pillage Economy.

Since 2008 full spectrum assault missions on European Union countries turned out to be nothing short of a success story for the US. In dollar terms the EU economy is now down to 65% of the United States economy. That’s down from 91% in 2013. American GDP per capita is now more than twice that of the EU, and the gap continues to widen. However, now one dollar is worth 50 cents in 2020 dollars. And why exactly is 2013, the year before the US Maidan coup in Ukraine, important? Because in 2013 the US systematically began to use sanctions mechanisms to deprive the European Union countries of cheap Russian energy and to force them to break off beneficial trade and projects with Russia and China. Capital fleeing from the EU to the US was triggered and has been increasing ever since. The US is perfectly content with the now rapidly de-industrializing, US energy-dependent, asset-stripped and broke European Union and will abuse it as long as it lasts. 

RAND Corporation (Jan 25, 2022) - Crush Europe and Strengthen the US.

 

So this time around, which are the remaining wealthy, long-term strategically expendable, docile and suicidal vassal states expected to finance the US for just a little bit longer: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE? Taiwan, South Korea, Japan? In reality the recently near global US dollar hegemony shrunk by half a planet since February 2022. Destroying and plundering Russia, China and Iran remains the US' only goal and hope. Whatever it takes. For the universal triumph, to the full satisfaction and for the eternal glory of their chosen masters. Or, under certain circumstances, God willing, war and regime change in the US will soon mess up those ambitions, as L. David Linsky suggests.

 

April 27, 2023 – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking plainly about sensitive issues, sanctions against Russia, 

shrunken labor force, high inflation, minuscule growth, ample support to Ukraine, his interest rates-scheming for 2023, etc.

in a real Russian television interview with pranksters Vovan and Lexus, who posed as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. 

» O my people, your guides mislead you and they have swallowed up the course of your paths. «
Prophet Isaiah, Holy Bible.

 

 » Know your enemy. «
Sun Tzu, The Art of War.

When Not To Put Money In The Bank - Negative Interest Rates in Europe

econfix (Jan 4, 2016) - It seems that in Europe negative interest rates are common place. Below are the current rates of some central banks:
 

European Central Bank -0.3%
Swiss National Bank -0.75%;
Danish Central bank -0.75%
Swedish Central Bank -1.1%

Why are they in negative territory? For all these countries it is the exchange rate against the Euro that is important. Negative interest rates weaken a country’s currency and make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. Furthermore central banks could be trying to prevent a slide into deflation, or a spiral of falling prices that could derail the recovery.

In theory, interest rates below zero should reduce borrowing costs for companies and households, driving demand for loans. In practice, there’s a risk that the policy might do more harm than good. If banks make more customers pay to hold their money, cash may go under the mattress instead. Janet Yellen, the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, said at her confirmation hearing in November 2013 that even a deposit rate that’s positive but close to zero could disrupt the money markets that help fund financial institutions. Two years later, she said that a change in economic circumstances could put negative rates “on the table” in the U.S., and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said he could now cut the benchmark rate below the current 0.5 percent if necessary. Deutsche Bank economists note that negative rates haven’t sparked the bank runs or cash hoarding some had feared, in part because banks haven’t passed them on to their customers. But there’s still a worry that when banks absorb the cost themselves, it squeezes the profit margin between their lending and deposit rates, and might make them even less willing to lend. Ever-lower rates also fuel concern that countries are engaged in a currency war of competitive devaluations. Source: Bloomberg

Web Bot: Massive Crackdown in China - $64B Underground Bank Busted - Emergency FED Meeting Monday (Nov 23): Rate Hike?

HERE

The Lowest Interest Rates in 5,000 Years

Sources: Bank of England, Global Financial Data, Homer and Sylla "A History of Interest Rates".