Credits: Bloomberg |
Showing posts with label Global Depression. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Global Depression. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
China's Stock Market - The Short Version
Labels:
Bloomberg,
China,
Global Depression,
Stock Market
Friday, December 18, 2015
Natural Gas
Wednesday, December 9, 2015
Race To The Bottom: Baltic Dry Index Collapsed To New All-Time Low
Freight rates have fallen to levels never seen before, 60% since August, and are currently 25% below the worst days of 2008. The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index (BDI), which gauges the cost of shipping cargoes including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, fell to 551 points yesterday. Historically, the Baltic Exchange Dry Index reached an all-time high of 11,612 in August 2008 and a record low of 498 in November of 2015. Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI is totally devoid of speculative content and reflects the real economy, since people don't book freighters unless they have cargo to move. |
Labels:
Baltic Dry Index,
Global Depression
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
Demographics as Destiny
Business Insider (Nov 30, 2015) - What the size of the world's workforce will be like in a decade is well predictable, since the future workers have already been born. Demographics have long been a key determinant of potential growth rates, but the change in the global population over the next few years is unprecedented. Japan's population started to shrink in the mid-1990s and Germany's started shrinking around the year 2000, but the world's most populous country, China, is now seeing its working-age population shrink for the first time. Though the overall global population will continue to grow for some time yet, the growth of the working-age population is slowing down pretty much everywhere. That's relevant for a bundle of reasons. Around the world there will be fewer workers to support a growing number of retirees. But it also has some economists expecting significant pressure on wages.
If
employers have to fight for a group of workers that is growing more
slowly, or even declining, they will need to encourage people to move,
and their labour will be more valuable. Some
countries, like Japan, Russia, and parts of Europe, have already
entered the stage that the rest of the world is going into — and they've
struggled with it. In Japan, slowing economic growth has made the
county's ever-expanding pile of public debt more and more difficult to
deal with, and the working-age population has already declined by 11.1%
in the past 20 years. Smaller populations mean less demand and less
potential output. More retirees relative to the number of working-age
people means more fiscal pressure: greater expenditure on healthcare and
less tax income. Globally, although working-age populations are still
growing, HSBC expects global potential growth to be 0.6ppt lower per
year over the next decade compared with the past decade given these
demographic changes. Not great news for heavily indebted economies (see also HERE).
The sea of red and pink across the advanced world means contraction, no growth, or slow growth. Only in a belt of the developing world (in Africa particularly) is there any substantial expansion coming by 2020. Credits: HSBC (Nov 2015) Enlarge |
Labels:
China,
Demographics,
Economic Growth,
Fertility Rate,
Germany,
Global Depression,
HSBC,
Japan
Thursday, September 3, 2015
The Lowest Interest Rates in 5,000 Years
Sources: Bank of England, Global Financial Data, Homer and Sylla "A History of Interest Rates". |
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