Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts

Thursday, October 9, 2025

The Dow-to-Gold Ratio (DJI/XAU) Collapses: Get Ready for Tangible Assets

The Dow-to-Gold ratio (DJI/XAU) measures how many ounces of gold are needed to buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is used as a long-term indicator of monetary confidence, where a falling ratio shows a shift in real value away from paper assets (cash, bonds, stocks) towards tangible assets like gold, silver, platinum, palladium, rhodium, copper (metals), oil, lumber (energy), and real estate.

Dow-to-Gold Ratio (DJI/XAU) from 1897 to 2025 (quarterly bars, log scale; chart credit: Francis Hunt.)
 Although the Dow has gained roughly 250% in dollar terms since 2000, by Q4 2025, 
its real value has declined by about two-thirds when measured in gold.
 
Over the last century, the Dow-to-Gold ratio has oscillated between periods of equity confidence and monetary stress. In 1929, the ratio peaked at roughly 18.63 before collapsing below 2 during the Great Depression. It reached about 28 in 1966, then fell below 1 in 1980 amid high inflation and currency instability. 
 
Dow-to-Gold Ratio (DJI/XAU) from 1800 to 2020 (quarterly values, log scale).
 
At the 1999–2000 peak, the Dow equaled approximately 45 ounces of gold—its highest in over a century. As of October 2025, the ratio is near 12, a decline of about 73% from that peak. The drop was steep from 2000 to 2011 (reaching a ratio near 6), followed by a rebound to about 20 by 2018, and renewed erosion thereafter. Over that period, gold has outperformed equities in real terms.
 
 

Monday, October 6, 2025

Mexico's Economic Rise Shifts Power from the US | Richard D. Wolff

Mexico, often viewed as dependent on the US, holds a significant edge in the global economy, with the US relying more on Mexico than most Americans realize. Beyond avocados and automobiles, Mexico is a vital hub for US supply chains in electronics, pharmaceuticals, automotive, aerospace, medical devices, textiles, consumer goods, and information/communications technology. As the US depends on Mexico, Mexico has strategically built leverage, shifting focus from politics to economics.
 

Mexico’s rise as an economic powerhouse challenges its subordinate image. Its leverage in trade, energy, and geopolitics makes it vital to the US. Rising labor and environmental demands could disrupt supply chains. The era of US dominance is fading, replaced by interdependence, and Mexico wields unprecedented influence. A fracture in this delicate relationship could swiftly impact the US. 
 
Mexico, once a trade partner, is now a force reshaping trade and energy policies, catching the US unprepared. The US has long focused on migration and border security, overlooking intricate economic ties. Mexico is a cornerstone of US production, driven by cost-effective labor and trade agreements like the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA, 2020).
 
 
This dependency stems from lower wages and proximity, but this corporate strategy has created vulnerabilities. US companies’ reliance on Mexico’s manufacturing gives Mexico significant leverage. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA,1994) boosted trade but moved US factories to Mexico for cheaper labor, eroding American jobs. USMCA preserved this structure. Mexico, no longer just a low-cost hub, has diversified into energy, consumer markets, and geopolitics, prioritizing labor rights and domestic growth, threatening the cheap labor model and US supply chains.
 
US policies, like subsidized agricultural exports, have displaced Mexican farmers, driving migration. US firms’ job relocation to Mexico exploits low-wage workers, creating an underclass on both sides of the border, with migration as a symptom of economic disparities.

Mexico, a key US oil supplier, is asserting control over its energy resources, nationalizing and tightening oversight, challenging US corporations. Its push into renewables diversifies its portfolio, enhancing global leverage. Prioritizing domestic energy could disrupt US imports, forcing a strategic shift.

 Mexico has surpassed China as the top US trade partner.
militarily occupy Mexico and use it as a substitute for China in its economic system. «  

Mexican labor movements demand better wages and conditions, undermining the cheap labor model, potentially raising US consumer prices. Environmental activists push for sustainable practices, challenging resource exploitation.
 
Amid the US-China trade war, Mexico is a nearshoring hub, benefiting from USMCA and proximity. China’s investments in Mexico create a trade triangulation, with Chinese components assembled in Mexico for US export, bypassing tariffs. Mexico negotiates favorable terms with both powers, gaining strategic autonomy.

 
 
Richard D. Wolff, American Marxist economist known for works like "Democracy at Work,"
is teaching at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and The New School.
 

Friday, September 12, 2025

Defeating the Enemy Without Fighting | Henry Kissinger

Rarely did Chinese statesmen risk the outcome of a conflict on a single all-or-nothing clash; elaborate multiyear maneuvers were closer to their style. Where the Western tradition prized the decisive clash of forces emphasizing feats of heroism, the Chinese ideal stressed subtlety, indirection, and the patient accumulation of relative advantage.

This contrast is reflected in the respective intellectual games favored by each civilization. China’s most enduring game is wei qi (圍棋, pronounced roughly “way chee,” and often known in the West by a variation of its Japanese name, go). Wei qi translates as “a game of surrounding pieces”; it implies a concept of strategic encirclement. 

The outcome of a Wei Qi game between two expert players.
Black has won by a slight margin.
David Lai (2004) - Learning from the Stones: A Go Approach to Mastering China’s Strategic Concept, Shi.
Carlisle, PA: US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute.

The board, a grid of nineteen-by-nineteen lines, begins empty. Each player has 180 pieces, or stones, at his disposal, each of equal value with the others
. The players take turns placing stones at any point on the board, building up positions of strength while working to encircle and capture the opponent’s stones. Multiple contests take place simultaneously in different regions of the board. The balance of forces shifts incrementally with each move, as the players implement strategic plans and react to each other’s initiatives. At the end of a well-played game, the board is filled by partially interlocking areas of strength. The margin of advantage is often slim, and to the untrained eye, the identity of the winner is not always immediately obvious.

Chess, on the other hand, is about total victory. The purpose of the game is checkmate, to put the opposing king into a position where he cannot move without being destroyed. The vast majority of games end in total victory achieved by attrition or, more rarely, a dramatic, skillful maneuver. The only other possible outcome is a draw, meaning the abandonment of the hope for victory by both parties.

If chess is about the decisive battle, wei qi is about the protracted campaign. The chess player aims for total victory. The wei qi player seeks relative advantage. In chess, the player always has the capability of the adversary in front of him; all the pieces are always fully deployed.

» Ultimate excellence lies not in winning every battle but in defeating the enemy without ever fighting.
The highest form of warfare is to attack the enemy’s strategy itself. «
The Art of War, Sun Tzu.

The wei qi player needs to assess not only the pieces on the board but the reinforcements the adversary is in a position to deploy. Chess teaches the Clausewitzian concepts of “center of gravity” and the “decisive point”—the game usually beginning as a struggle for the center of the board. Wei qi teaches the art of strategic encirclement. Where the skillful chess player aims to eliminate his opponent’s pieces in a series of head-on clashes, a talented wei qi player moves into “empty” spaces on the board, gradually mitigating the strategic potential of his opponent’s pieces. Chess produces single-mindedness; wei qi generates strategic flexibility.

A similar contrast exists in the case of China’s distinctive military theory (中国军事思想). Its foundations were laid during a period of upheaval, when ruthless struggles between rival kingdoms decimated China’s population. Reacting to this slaughter (and seeking to emerge victorious from it), Chinese thinkers developed strategic thought that placed a premium on victory through psychological advantage and preached the avoidance of direct conflict.
 
» US imperialism is a paper tiger. «
 Mao Zedong, July 14, 1956.
 
On his secret mission to establish a US-China alliance against the Soviet Union, US National Security
 Advisor Henry Kissinger meets with Zhou Enlai (Premier of the PRC since 1949) in Beijing on July 9, 1971.
 
Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party Mao Zedong (founding leader of the PRC since 1949)
welcomes President of the United States Richard Nixon (1969-1974) in Beijing on February 21, 1972.
 
Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China (since 2013), invites
94-year-old former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger to Beijing on July 19, 2017. 
 
The seminal figure in this tradition is known to history as Sun Tzu (or “Master Sun”), author of the famed treatise The Art of War. Intriguingly, no one is sure exactly who he was. Since ancient times, scholars have debated the identity of The Art of War’s author and the date of its composition. The book presents itself as a collection of sayings by one Sun Wu, a general and wandering military advisor from the  Spring and Autumn period of Chinese history (770–476 B.C. ), as recorded by his disciples.

[…] Well over two thousand years after its composition, this volume of epigrammatic observations on strategy, diplomacy, and war—written in classical Chinese, halfway between poetry and prose—remains a central text of military thought. Its maxims found vivid expression in the twentieth-century Chinese civil war 
(人民战争) at the hands of Sun Tzu’s student Mao Zedong, and in the Vietnam wars, as Ho Chi Minh and Vo Nguyen Giap employed Sun Tzu’s principles of indirect attack and psychological combat (逸待劳) against France and then the United States.

 

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Q4 2025 Outlook: Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, and Investments | Simon Hunt

Amid a cascade of geopolitical and economic developments, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit—along with bilateral meetings in Tianjin and Beijing—emerged as the pivotal moment. President Xi’s opening address concluded with a clear message: “It’s time for action.” 
 
Simon Hunt, British economist and CEO of Simon Hunt Strategic Services, is a veteran global 
strategist with 50+ years of experience advising governments and institutions on macroeconomics, 
copper markets, China, and geopolitical risk, and a pioneer in industrial metals intelligence.

Multipolar Ultimatum: SCO Summit Signals Global Realignment 
This marks a new era of geopolitical posture—one of confident unity among the East, and a tacit ultimatum to the West. BRICS is ready, but not seeking a fight. Despite the growing strength of this bloc, their message remains: “We don’t want war, we invite partnership. But if you refuse, we will proceed without you.” This stance was echoed during a high-profile military parade showcasing next-generation hardware (HERE, select English audio track). 

» The wars in the Middle East and in Europe will escalate. «
 
The West has effectively pushed Russia and China together—and now India as well. This fulfills Brzezinski’s warning that a Russia-China alliance would mark a fatal blow to US global dominance. The realignment is now irreversible.

India, once diplomatically dancing between the West and the East, has now aligned itself firmly with BRICS. The SCO summit made this unmistakably clear through images and interactions between leaders. With China and Russia already unified, India’s inclusion forms a powerful axis comprising the world’s three largest countries by population and resource depth.

Within the SCO framework, India and Pakistan—traditionally adversarial—may find common ground. Russia maintains strong ties with India, while China supports Pakistan. Pakistan's historical alignment with the CIA may now be shifting toward China, driven by strategic and economic incentives. Even Pakistani defense leaders have acknowledged the transactional nature of their past Western alignment.
 
US Can Adopt Multipolarity Or World Will Split Into Two Blocs
The coordinated body language, messaging, and preparedness of Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi made it clear: Washington and its allies are being asked to join a multilateral world. Should they refuse, the world will split into two irreconcilable blocs 
 
Historically, empires have accepted only victory or defeat, and the United States may not shift until crisis compels it. The refusal to accept a multipolar order will lead to escalating global tensions. The window for peaceful integration is closing.
 
BRICS Currency Incoming: Gold-Backed Alternative to Dollar Imminent
Within ongoing BRICS meetings, particularly between Russia and Brazil, a new currency is being discussed—one expected to be gold-backed. The Shanghai Gold Exchange is building vaults across BRICS countries, including Saudi Arabia, enabling energy trade in yuan and its conversion directly into gold, bypassing the dollar.
 
China is already settling oil trades in yuan, which Saudi Arabia converts into gold via the Shanghai exchange. A physical gold vault in Saudi Arabia would streamline this process, and with a narrowing trade imbalance, this yuan-for-gold mechanism is becoming systemic. Russia and China have already maintained such a balance for years via vaults in the People's Bank of China (PBOC).
 
Russia warns "US will use crypto to escape its $35 trillion debt". 
 
Gold at Record Highs: Short-Term Pullback Before Next Bull Leg
Gold futures reached $3,673, with silver touching $41.92. However, a short-term correction to $2,800 may occur due to the Treasury’s need to lower interest rates. This is seen as a deliberate move to accumulate gold cheaply before an eventual revaluation.
 
Silver Rising: Central Banks and BRICS Nations Accumulating
Saudi Arabia recently bought $20M worth of SLV shares. Russia has opened its first silver reserve. The US added silver to its official list of critical minerals, indicating institutional recognition of its strategic value alongside gold. The deeper message: central banks no longer trust paper assets.
 
Two-Tier US Currency Model Anticipated
The US is already in recession, and Europe is close behind. Real money supply is shrinking globally—one of the most reliable indicators of economic activity. Liquidity injections may not be enough to revive growth given looming structural banking pressures. 
 
A previously disclosed forecast from over a decade ago suggested the US could eventually introduce two dollars—a gold-backed domestic dollar and a floating offshore dollar. Technical models predict the DXY will fall to 50 by 2028, effectively doubling gold prices in dollar terms.

A potential short-term dollar rally—DXY rising from 98 to 103—could temporarily deflate gold prices. This would precede the next wave of the precious metals bull market. Treasury-driven rate cuts and liquidity injections will aim to stabilize the system ahead of 2028's deeper crisis.

American pension funds and institutions may be compelled to absorb US debt, given the exodus of foreign buyers like China. Watch India’s actions closely in this space—they will serve as a bellwether for BRICS monetary divergence.
 
 
» The contrast between Chinese dynamism and the total rot and death cult of the West and its vassals defies imagination. «
 
Ukraine Escalation Risk: EU3’s Miscalculated Strategy
The EU3—France, Germany, and the UK—appear poised to intensify the Ukraine conflict by inserting troops into the country, backed by US-supplied weapons and funded through European debt. This move, driven by strategic delusion, risks widening the war and deepening economic instability across Europe.

Should EU3 forces move into Ukraine, expect immediate capital controls in Europe, with global spillover via interconnected banking systems. This would shortcut any inflationary cycle and thrust the world directly into recession.
 
A leaked directive from France reportedly instructed hospitals to prepare for mass casualties in 2026, tied to potential direct conflict with Russia. Sources close to French military and intelligence circles confirm the plausibility of this scenario, citing deployments as “peacekeepers” that will effectively function as combat troops.
 
Iran-Israel Tensions Rising: Preemptive Strike Scenarios Loom
Parallel to Ukraine, the Middle East simmers. Iran is reinforcing its defenses with aid from Russia and China. Intelligence hints at potential preemptive strikes by Iran against Israel, marking a dangerous turning point. Iran’s foreign minister has dismissed negotiations with the US as traps, citing repeated betrayals masked as diplomacy.
 
» Globalization is coming to an end, the Spring and Autumn period is over, and the Warring States period is about to begin.
[...] From now on, the possibility of reconciliation between countries on this planet will increasingly cease to exist.
The entire Eurasian continent is about to engage in a battle royale, where every nation must firmly
choose sides in the process: either become a servant of the United States or be its enemy. 
[...] They can only choose to stand with us or face destruction. «
Chinese opinion regarding Israeli bombing of Qatar on September 9, 2025.
 
Despite its proximity to conflict, the UAE may be spared thanks to deep trade ties with Israel, cultural links with Iran, and the presence of a modern Iranian community. Any Iranian retaliation may be surgically limited to American military installations, avoiding broader damage in the UAE.

Climate Shift Confirmed: From Warming to Cooling
Melting Greenland ice is releasing cold freshwater into the Atlantic, disrupting ocean currents. Though silenced by institutions like NOAA, internal research suggests we are entering a cooling phase, not warming. The agricultural and economic implications are immense.

Food Inflation Crisis: Cold Weather, and Dust Bowl Patterns Collide
Food prices are already spiking. The FAO food index rose 7.6% YoY in July. Fertilizer shortages and extreme weather may cause one of the coldest winters in 50 years in the US Midwest. Add to this the return of the 90-year Dust Bowl cycle, and the outcome is severe crop failures and soaring food inflation.
 
Demographics vs. Growth: Global Economic Model Faces Existential Challenge 
The world's demographic peak (around 9 billion) and subsequent decline challenge the existing economic model based on infinite growth. However, this transformation will unfold over decades—not in the immediate 5-year cycle.
 
Short-Term Strategy: Long-Term Investment Now Extremely Risky
In the current fractured world order, long-term investments—by individuals or institutions—are hazardous. A global recession or depression is likely by 2028, with paper assets poised for a collapse. However, if geopolitical escalations are avoided, equities and base metals may experience a bull market from mid-2025 to 2028.

Hungary and Slovakia are likely to resist full EU alignment and avoid deeper conflict involvement. These countries, being semi-detached from Brussels, may serve as safe havens during broader European turmoil.
 
Individuals should prepare immediately. Stock deep freezers, convert garden space into vegetable beds, and plan for prolonged food cost spikes. This is a practical, immediate defense against inflation and disruption.

Sunday, September 7, 2025

State Central Banking vs Private Central Banking | Wen Tiejun

Let's delve into the core reasons underlying the strategic confrontation between the People's Republic of China and the United States of America, as this unveils a significant systemic discrepancy: [...] The issuance of the renminbi (RMB) is fundamentally based on the authority of the Chinese government, specifically through the People's Bank of China (PBC). The basis for the issuance of the renminbi is definitely not gold. The reason this money is valuable is because it is a sovereign currency issued by the state and backed by state authority. Empowering a sovereign currency establishes credit. The currency creates credit, and the sole resource available is political authority. Thus, political authority, governmental power, and the administration in control align with the currency system.
Wen Tiejun (温铁军) is a Chinese agricultural economist and a professor at the Renmin
University of China, best known for his studies on the Three Rural Issues in Mainland China.
 
On the other hand, the source of the US dollar's credit is an institution established by private bankers, not a country. Pay attention, this difference matters: The US dollar is actually issued by an institution called the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is neither an official entity nor a government institution; instead, it is an organization operated by private bankers. This particular organization possesses the authority to issue the national currency and determines the financial policy of the United States, which the government then implements.
 
 
» The root cause of global chaos is financial capital globalization, which is
supported by military hegemony. « Wen Tiejun's complete discourse video.  
 
This occurrence is quite rare across the globe, both in terms of nations and systems. In the majority of countries, it is the political power of the state that grants authority to its national currency, forming a sovereign currency. In a select number of nations, such as the United States, institutions are established by private banking entities, and the government subsequently enacts the policies of these private banker collectives.

[...] Therefore, throughout the extensive history of the United States, numerous influential presidents have attempted to reclaim monetary authority. All of them ultimately failed. Almost every president who was resolute in their determination to reclaim monetary authority ended up deceased, including the widely recognized Kennedy assassination. These events all share similar demands to restore monetary rights back to the government, yet none of these plans have been fully realized.

[...] China continues to maintain its national control over financial capital. For what specific purpose? In recent years, when China faced global crises and a decline in exports, the Chinese government mainly relied on national finance, investing in infrastructure that may not yield immediate profits. A straightforward example is the allocation of funds for the construction of roads and railways in rural, mountainous, and even desert regions. All these investments cannot be recovered in the short term, and it's also difficult to recover them in the long term. So, should we invest? We should, because if we don't, businesses will have no market and workers will become unemployed. On the other hand, the government would have to use its finances to pay for unemployment benefits. Rather than doing that, it's better to invest. 

» The United States exploits the world's wealth with the help of "seigniorage." It costs only about 17 cents to produce a 100 dollar bill, but other countries had to pony up 100 dollar of actual goods in order to obtain one. It was pointed out more than half a century ago, that the United States enjoyed exorbitant privilege and deficit without tears created by its dollar, and used
the worthless paper note to plunder the resources and factories of other nations. The hegemony of the US dollar 
is the main source of instability and uncertainty in the world economy. «
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, 2023. 

[...] I perceive this as one of Trump's most proactive and forward-thinking policies—to focus on the advancement of infrastructure development. His most significant challenge is that the US lacks the so-called state-owned enterprises (SOEs) similar to those in China. Additionally, it doesn't have a state-owned banking system. China's system uses state banks to receive currency from the government, which is directly paid to state-owned enterprises. These enterprises then directly engage in infrastructure construction, maintaining China's economic growth and sustaining employment. The US uses private banks to issue more currency to buy government bonds, which then leads to a virtual capital expansion, with two hands shifting the crisis to the whole world.

[...] Analyzing this with American theory suggests China's state-owned banks and state-owned enterprises are inefficient. They don't provide tax revenue and occupy a large amount of capital. But just because financial resources are utilized doesn't mean nothing is produced. A significant amount of wealth is indeed generated, but this wealth manifests in the form of airports, seaports, train stations, highways, and high-speed railway systems. None of these investments can generate returns in the immediate short term. Consequently, a substantial amount of capital in China's state-owned banks is currently tied up. According to general free-market economic theory, those that can't be recovered soon should all go bankrupt. As long as you genuinely and sincerely execute what is purportedly stated in the media today, China's economy should have gone bankrupt long ago because its large investments can't be recovered quickly.

»
I think he [US Fed chairman Jerome Powell] is a very stupid person, actually. «

Not-calling-the-shots POTUS, July 13, 2025.
 
[...] How Trump might approach the situation? He doesn't have China's methods. So, how will he do it? By relying on private bankers to reform America's railways? How long will it take to recoup the investment? Why would private individuals invest in rebuilding American roads and airports? Private investment is dropping. This is similar to what's happening in China: whenever there's an economic crisis, China's private investment decline is inevitable. So, how do you counter it? You have to rely on state investment to push it up. One goes down, the other goes up. That's how it is. 
 
»
The US uses private banks to issue more currency to buy government bonds, which then 
leads to a virtual capital expansion, with two hands shifting the crisis to the whole world. «
 
A significant number of individuals are critical of China's system. I don't intend to imply anything else; I'm merely suggesting that you observe the actual impact. I also don't wish to defend this so-called closed system of China because I equally dislike this bureaucratic system, but it actually maintains the nation's foundational employment and crucial economic development.
  

Wednesday, September 3, 2025

The End of Western Dominance—US Lives in Mortal Fear | John Mearsheimer

Since 2017, when Trump entered the White House, the balance of power has shifted in China’s favor, though the United States remains the world’s most powerful state. China is rapidly closing the gap, particularly in cutting-edge technologies, which Washington fears could tilt global economic and military power. As China converts its economic strength into military might, it builds not just regional forces but also blue-water naval power and global projection capabilities linked to its Belt and Road Initiative. This imitation of US strategy alarms Washington and drives a bipartisan policy of containment.

John J. Mearsheimer, American political scientist and professor at the University of Chicago, best known for his work
on international relations theory, offensive realism, the US Zionist lobby, US–China rivalry and great power politics.

Initially, Chinese leaders argued that economic interdependence would prevent conflict, since prosperity required cooperation. However, survival—not prosperity—is the primary goal of states in an anarchic international system with no higher authority. As China’s economic rise translated into growing military capacity, American fear replaced optimism, triggering security competition in East Asia. Prosperity enriched both sides, but balance-of-power politics and survival imperatives outweighed economic interdependence theory.

» Great powers are ruthless, exploiting weaker rivals to secure survival and expand influence. «
John J. Mearsheimer's complete discourse video. 

Historical lessons reinforce this logic. Weak states like China during its “century of humiliation” (1840s–1940s) and Russia during NATO expansion in the 1990s suffered because they lacked power. Great powers are ruthless, exploiting weaker rivals to secure survival and expand influence. In this system, the optimal strategy is regional hegemony, dominating one’s neighborhood while preventing rivals from doing the same. The US has long acted this way, blocking Germany, Japan, and the Soviet Union from achieving dominance in Europe or Asia, while securing its own supremacy in the Western Hemisphere.

China’s trajectory fits this pattern. As its power has grown since the 1990s, Beijing naturally seeks to dominate East Asia. Yet the US cannot tolerate another regional hegemon, making containment inevitable. From Washington’s perspective, preventing Chinese hegemony is about survival, not choice. From Beijing’s perspective, seeking hegemony is equally rational. The result is a structural clash: both sides are locked in an intensifying security competition driven by the anarchic nature of the international system.

» The United States lives in mortal fear that the Chinese are going to dominate. «

China’s path to hegemony is more difficult than America’s was because regional powers like Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Philippines—backed by the US—resist Chinese dominance. India participates in the Quad but is geographically and strategically less central to East Asian balance. Russia, meanwhile, has been pushed into China’s camp by the Ukraine war, eliminating a potential counterweight. This complicates US strategy: instead of balancing China together, Washington and Moscow are now aligned against each other.
 
The Ukraine war creates two major problems for the US: it prevents a full pivot to Asia and deepens the Sino-Russian partnership. Trump recognized this dynamic and sought rapprochement with Moscow to peel Russia away from China, but his chances of success are slim. Russia deeply distrusts the US, and Trump underestimated the difficulty of ending the Ukraine conflict. His instincts—to improve ties with Russia and focus on China—align with realist logic, but his reliance on instincts over experts undermines effective execution.

» It's only recently that Putin has brought the Russians back 
from the dead and we now consider Russia to be a great power. «

Since 2017, US policy has shifted decisively from engagement to containment of China, first under Trump and then reinforced, even hardened, under Biden. Yet American forces remain tied down in Ukraine and the Middle East. Deployments against the Houthis in the Red Sea and the prospect of war with Iran divert vital resources away from East Asia, just as China grows militarily stronger. Past US experiments in social engineering—in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya—ended in failure, raising doubts about new entanglements that sap the capacity to counter China.

Facing escalating global uncertainties, Chinese President Xi Jinping said the SCO is increasingly
responsible for regional peace, stability, and member-state development, August 31, 2025.
 
Ultimately, the US–China rivalry reflects structural realities of power politics. Both states seek survival through maximizing power, and both see regional hegemony as the path to security. The United States, the sole global hegemon since 1900, refuses to share that status, while China, closing the gap, sees dominance in East Asia as essential. The result is an enduring, intensifying contest that economic interdependence or diplomatic optimism cannot erase.

 

See also: