Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin | David Hickson

S&P 500: Phased with an 18-month (or larger) trough in early April, 80-day trough mid-June (debated position due to fundamentals), 40-day trough mid-July, and recent subtle troughs suggesting a distorted 20-week cycle influenced by bullish longer cycles. Alternative analysis considers 20-week trough possibly formed on August 1st, but preferred view is it's ahead.
 
S&P 500 (daily bars) and Composite Model (dashed orange line).
 
Long-term cycles in the S&P 500 (weekly bars, chart from December 2024): As of August 2025, the 
S&P is in the bullish 9-month (or 40-week) cycle phase of the third and final 18-month cycle within 
the current 54-month cycle, which is expected to bottom around December 2026.
 
Watch price interaction with 20-day FLD: support indicates 20-week trough has formed; crossing below suggests trough ahead. Bullish trend distorts cycles upward, with early trough possible within whiskers (mid-August range). Preferred: 20-week trough late August/early September, after a potential short bounce and decline. If trough formed early, expect upside to FLD-generated targets; composite model shows possible downturn soon.
 
 54-month cycle and its subdivisions:
18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles.
 
 
Projection of the current 18-month cycle in the S&P 500.
(consider Hurst's Principle of Variation) 
 
9-month cycle projection for the S&P 500 during 
the bullish phase of the current 18-month cycle.
 

NASDAQ: Similar to S&P 500, with 18-month trough April 7th, 80-day trough slightly late (77 days, mid-June), 40-day trough August 1st (39 days, running long). Cycles averaging longer wavelengths; good match to price troughs.
 
NASDAQ (daily bars) and Composite Model (dashed orange line).

Long-term cycles in the NASDAQ (weekly bars, chart from December 2024).
 
Monitor shorter cycles for shortening (e.g., 20-day at 13 days, 40-day at 28 days) as indicator of trend change. Bullish trend may push peaks higher/later. 20-week trough ahead (end August/early September), with potential bounce to lower/higher peak, then decline. Composite model suggests lower peak but bullishness could override; cycles likely continue long unless shorter ones shorten.
 
NASDAQ - Detrended Seasonality.

Gold: Sideways in wedge, testing $3,450 peak multiple times; synchronized peaks expected. Dual trough/peak analyses both valid: 40-week trough mid-May, 80-day trough July 30th (post-update), good FLD interactions (66.7% rating).

Gold (daily bars) and Composite Model (dashed orange line).
 
 Long-term cycles in Gold (weekly bars, chart from December 2024).
 
Trapped wedge suggests breakout imminent; combine trough/peak for composite. Higher peak at 20-week cycle (end August/early September), then potential upside continuation. Composite (dual) shows upward move post-20-day trough; expect FLD support.
 
Gold - Detrended Seasonality.

Bitcoin: 40-week trough mid-April, 80-day trough late June (clear), 40-day trough late (August 1st, expanded shorter cycles). Pure rhythms; similar to stocks, with bullish distortion.

Bitcoin (daily bars) and Composite Model (dashed orange line).
 
  Long-term cycles in Bitcoin (weekly bars, chart from December 2024).
 
Watch 20-day FLD: support indicates early 20-week trough; cross below confirms ahead. Excessive bullishness (possible larger trough in April) pushes amplitudes higher. 20-week trough ahead (end August/early September), after bounce to potentially higher peak despite model showing lower. Cycles running long; amplitude least reliable, but wavelengths suggest decline post-peak.
 
 
Bitcoin - Detrended Seasonality.
Historically, Bitcoin performs best in Q4. October averages around +22%, 
and November even +46% over the past 12 years.
 
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