Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500 and Bitcoin; Focus on Gold | David Hickson

S&P 500: In previous updates we noted that the 20-week cycle trough likely formed on September 2, consistent with similar lows across global equity markets within a few days of that date. We discussed the probability that a minor low on September 25 represented the 20-day cycle trough. 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from late August to December 2025: 

Rebounding from 40-day trough, likely forming a 40- or 80-day peak —possibly at a marginal new high—before turning lower toward 80-day trough in November (Oct 10 + 37.2 CD = Nov 16 (Sun) ±). Market now in bearish phase into early Jan 2026.

The expected 40-day cycle trough appears to have occurred on October 10, driven by a sharp, news-related decline. This does not signal a larger-degree trough, but reflects the timing of external events with the 40-day low. Price has since bounced above the 20-day FLD, suggesting a short-term upside, possibly a marginal new high. Looking ahead, we anticipate an 80-day cycle trough in November, while the broader trend remains bearish into a major longer-term cycle low in early 2026.

Bitcoin formed a 20-week cycle trough on September 1, but its subsequent structure has been bearish. The October 17 low — possibly a 40-day trough — occurred below the 20-day FLD, signaling weakness, and any near-term bounce is likely temporary.

 

Bitcoin (daily bars) from late August to December 2025:

 18-month cycle points toward major trough in early 2026.

Bitcoin (monthly bars from 2017 to 2025) entering bear market expected to take price down to $25k.

 

The larger 18-month cycle points to a major trough in early 2026, keeping Bitcoin structurally soft into the broader decline.

 
Gold has been moving sharply higher, and is now approaching the peak of this move. In the monthly chart below, the upper panel displays cycles synchronized at peaks. Gold and other commodities often synchronize at peaks, and when markets accelerate sharply—as gold has—troughs are hard to identify, making peak-based analysis the most practical approach.

 

Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025: 

Now approaching the peak of this move.

Looking back to 1998, the analysis identifies 9-year cycle peaks around 2002, 2011, and 2020. The 2002 peak is somewhat uncertain due to gold’s persistent uptrend, while the 2011 and 2020 peaks are well-defined. Markets with synchronized peaks typically form W-shaped structures rather than M-shapes, consistent with gold’s 2011–2020 behavior. The 54-month cycle peak in 2016 also aligns neatly.

 

Gold (monthly bars) from 2020 to 2025: 

9-year, 54-month, and 18-month cycle peaks.

Since the 2020 9-year peak, 18-month cycle peaks have occurred in early 2022 and late 2023. Accelerating momentum has made these shorter-term peaks harder to pinpoint, creating some uncertainty around the exact timing of the late-2023 peak. Accordingly, the projected next 18-month cycle peak (indicated by a “circle and whiskers”) should be interpreted with caution. The same applies to the 54-month cycle peak, whose projection relies on historical averages and may have stretched over time.

The weekly chart below shows a “nest of highs,” where the 54-month, 18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles overlap. This cluster has shifted slightly later than projected, reflecting an expansion of the longer cycles rather than a flaw in the analysis.

Gold (weekly bars) from October 2024 to October 2025.

Potential 54-month peak by mid-October 2025: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, approaching

a major multi-year peak as the 20-week, 54-month, and possibly 9-year cycles converge.

 

Hurst noted that gold’s cycles generally run longer than stock market cycles, and the current data supports this. If cycles continue to extend, the next 20-week cycle peak should occur roughly 175 days after April, landing in mid-October 2025, suggesting a major 54-month peak may be forming now.

Gold (daily bars) from September to October 20, 2025.

Peak confirmed once price breaks key VTLs and FLDs.

 

Price targets are derived from FLD interactions, but all upward FLD targets have already been reached. We can, however, use the 9-year FLD for context: in 2015, price tracked this line before breaking above it, an interaction resembling a BC-category event in Hurst’s framework. This suggests the 2015 low may have been a very high-magnitude trough, potentially corresponding to a 36- or 54-year cycle low.

Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025.

All upward FLD targets have already been reached. On a log scale, the $250→$2,000 (~5×) move

from 2001 to 2011 projects a proportional long-term target from ~$1,000 in 2016 to around $5,000. 

 

Projecting forward on a logarithmic scale, the initial major move from roughly $250 in 2001 to $2,000 in 2011 represented a 5× gain. Applying the same proportional advance from around $1,000 points in December 2015 (36-year or 54-year low) to a long-term target near $5,000.

Reference:
David Hickson (October 20, 2025) - How Far Will Gold Go? - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

Gold remains in a long-term mean reversion channel. Currently near the upper resistance (~$4,300/oz), gold appears overextended and may revert toward the mean ($2,500–$3,500/oz) before resuming its secular bull trend. The channel’s higher highs and lows reinforce the broader projection toward ~$10,000/oz as inflation, currency debasement, and safe-haven demand sustain the long-term uptrend.

Subu Trade notes gold’s rare 9-week winning streak ending October 17, 2025 — with no prior 10-week runs since records began in 1970. On average, 9-week winning streaks yield a 0% positive outcome beyond the next day and precede average declines of 13% within two months. 

 Oct 21, 08:25 EDT

 » We are there. «

See also:

Martin Armstrong (October 21, 2025) - On Gold, EU Capital Controls, CBDCs, Cryptos, and Stocks.

David Hickson (October 6, 2025) - Hurst Cycles: Bigger Picture for SPX, NDX, ASX, and BTC.

David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

TPR (October 10, 2025) - Hurst 40-Week Cycle High in US Stock Indices | High of 2025. 

Branimir Vojcic (October 4, 2025) - Gold and Silver: Medium- and Long-Term Cycles. 

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025. 

Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Valid Trendlines (VTLs).
Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs).

Hurst 40-Week Cycle High in US Stock Indices | High of 2025

The Dow Jones reached its peak in the Hurst 40-Week Cycle as expected on Friday, October 3, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit their highs on Thursday, October 9. This marks the likely high for 2025.

 

Schematic Hurst 40-Week Cycle in the S&P 500 (daily bars; April 7, 2025 to January 1, 2026). Please note that, in any composite or summation of cycles with 2:1 ratios of length and amplitude, the crests of individual cycles become troughs in the resulting summation curve (thick black line).

In the S&P 500, the breakdown on Friday, October 10, expanded to four times the average true range of the past 20 trading days, erasing the lows of the previous three weeks in a sharp, 7-hour move down to August's high. The index closed down 3.36% on the highest volume since August 1, while the NASDAQ dropped 4.24% and the DJIA fell 2.44%.
 

The 20-Day Cycle Low is projected to occur between October 10-13 (Friday to Monday), followed by a brief 2-3 day bounce. Afterward, the market is expected to continue its downward trajectory into the next nominal 20-Day, 40-Day, and 80-Day Cycle Lows around October 24-27 (Friday to Monday).

A brief recovery is anticipated during the first week of November, before the market continues downward into the next 40-Day Low, which is forecasted for around November 28. Another short bounce is expected during the first week of December before the final decline into the 40-Week Cycle Low, which should occur between late December and early January 2026.

The principle of confirmation [20-week VTL] on display.

See also:

David Hickson (October 6, 2025) - Hurst Cycles: Bigger Picture for SPX, NDX, ASX, and BTC.

David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin. 

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 TPR (August 5, 2025) - Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle. 

Hurst Cycles: Bigger Picture for SPX, NDX, ASX, and BTC | David Hickson

S&P 500: In our previous update, we identified three possible 20-week cycle troughs, and after comparing with less bullish markets (Nifty, ASX), concluded that the most likely occurred in the first few days of September. Price behavior since then supports that view. The next 20-day cycle trough likely occurred around September 25, slightly longer than average at 23 days. 

 

Price is rising from the 20-week cycle trough on September 2. The market is still bullish, moving up from either a 20- or 40-day trough, with the next expected 40-day or 80-day cycle trough due within one weeks to ten days. The 40-week cycle trough is projected around January 2026.

This mild irregularity raises the question of whether that trough was in fact an early 40-day one, since we’re due for another in about a week to ten days. Regardless, price remains in an upswing, moving out of that trough, and we stay bullish until the market gives evidence of peaking.

 

The S&P 500 e-minis (ES) is still running up and the composite cycle points to 7,000.

 

Schematic composite cycle projection for the S&P 500 during the 
bullish 9-month cycle phase of the current 18-Month Cycle. 

 

Looking at the bigger picture, the S&P 500 has a 54-month (4½-year) cycle trough in October 2022, followed by 18-month troughs in October 2023 and April 2025. The strong rally since April suggests that the trough may be of greater magnitude. We expect a 40-week cycle trough in January 2026, and a major 18-month (or possibly 54-month) trough by September 2026. Until then, the market remains upward-biased with periodic corrections.

 

NASDAQ: The NASDAQ shows nearly identical structure: a 20-week trough on September 2, and a 20-day trough on September 25. A 40-day cycle trough is due around mid-October.

 

Also rising from the September 2 20-week trough. A 40-day cycle trough is expected between mid- and late October, followed by a move down into the January 2026 40-week trough. The market remains up until evidence of a peak forms.

On the larger scale, the NASDAQ shares the same October 2022 54-month base and subsequent 18-month troughs in October 2023 and April 2025, placing it in its third 18-month cycle—historically the least bullish. If this up-move fails to sustain, it could turn sharply bearish. A 40-week trough is expected in January 2026, followed by a deeper 18-month or 54-month trough toward late 2026.

 

Australian ASX: The ASX has been valuable for cross-checking the US indices because it hasn’t been as relentlessly bullish. Its 20-week trough also appeared around early September, confirming cycle alignment. After a hesitant bounce, the ASX regained strength last week. Shorter cycles (20-day and 40-day) are slightly stretched, and a 40-day trough is due soon, followed by an 80-day in November and a 40-week trough in January 2026. 

 

The 20-week trough occurred on September 2–3; price struggled initially but recovered strongly from the 20-day trough. A 40-day trough is due within a week, an 80-day trough in November, and the 40-week trough in January 2026.

Its longer-term 40-month cycle (analogous to a 54-month in US markets) bottomed in April 2025, explaining the strong upward pressure. The ASX is expected to peak later this year, then weaken into January 2026 before another rally.

 

Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s 20-week trough formed in early September, consistent with equities. The 20-day/40-day identification remains uncertain, but price is currently advancing from that base.

 

The 20-week trough appeared in the first days of September. Price is currently rising, but it will later move down under the influence of the 40-week and 18-month cycles into a trough expected January 2026.

On the broader scale, Bitcoin’s 54-month trough came in December 2022, with an 18-month trough in August 2024 and a 40-week trough in April 2025. Its next key trough, of 18-month magnitude, is due in January 2026. Although the coming decline should be mild due to limited amplitude, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum may fade into early 2026 before the next major upswing.

 

Reference:
David Hickson (October 6, 2025) - The Bigger Picture - Hurst Cycles Market Update - 6 October 2025. (video) 

 

See also:

David Hickson (September 22, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Notes on the S&P 500: 20-Day Trough, Now Up.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

 Christopher Grafton (2022)  - Using FLDs to Forecast Market Turning Points and Trends. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 2, 2025) - S&P 500 Year-End Outlook: Strong Seasonal Setup Targets 7100.

Wayne Whaley (September 27, 2025) - S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September.  

 Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

Hurst Cycles Notes on the S&P 500: 20-Day Trough, Now Up | David Hickson

General outlook: US Dollar and USDJPY bouncing out of 80-day cycle troughs. Gold up. Oil struggling to confirm 80-day trough. Copper and EURUSD dropping to 80-day troughs. SPX, Nikkei, Bitcoin all formed 20-day troughs in new 20-week cycle. Ten year notes looking for 80-day cycle trough.

S&P500 E–Minis (ES) - subtle 20-day trough in new 20-week cycle. Up.

The S&P 500 e-minis continue their march upward in the new 20-week cycle. A subtle 20-day cycle trough formed last week, bullish pressure revealed by the fact price could not reach down to the 20-day FLD. There is a 40-day cycle trough looming in the second week of October. Up. 

Reference:
David Hickson (September 22, 2025) - The Macro Brief - 22 September 2025.

 

Schematic 40-Week Hurst Cycles Projection in a bullish trend.

 

J.M. Hurst's Nominal 20-Day and 40-Day Cycles.

 Three weeks up out of Sep 2 low; three pushes out of Sep 17 20-day cycle low; week

Sep 22-26 (XAMD); re-accumulation; Sep 24-25 low; up ≈ Oct 3-6; down ≈ Oct 24. 

 

See also: 

TPR (September 16, 2025)  - “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur” | Hurst Cycles Suggest Otherwise.  

Namzes (September 22, 2025) - Push higher into Oct Opex for 40W cycle peak? 

Christopher Grafton (September 3, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Notes on the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. 

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin. 

TPR (August 5, 2025) - Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle.

Bitcoin FLD Trading Opportunity with 8% Potential | David Hickson

The daily Bitcoin chart below is dated September 15 (Mon), with price near $114.5k. A 20-week cycle trough was identified on September 1 (Mon), which means 14 days have passed since then. The average length of a 20-day cycle is about 17.1 days, and we are approaching the expected timing for the next 20-day cycle trough. The nest of lows at the foot of the chart suggests that a 20-day cycle trough is likely to occur around September 18–19 (Thu-Fri).

20-week cycle trough confirmed on September 1 (Mon). Next 20-day cycle trough expected 

around September 18–19 (Thu-Fri). With the 20-week, 80-day, and 40-day cycles all

pushing up, upside targets are $120K+ by early October. 

Our main tool here is the 20-day cycle FLD. Price has already crossed above this FLD twice, producing a somewhat messy A-category interaction. The target from that interaction was achieved early on Friday, slightly exceeded, as expected after a 20-week trough. Now, price is dropping toward the next 20-day cycle trough. At that time, we expect it to find support at the 20-day FLD at around 112k. 

 

This creates the trading opportunity: If price finds support at the 20-day FLD when the 20-day trough forms, we can look for a long entry. The sequence of price interactions with the 20-day FLD has a 62.5% accuracy rating, making it a reliable setup. Why? There is bullish pressure: Bitcoin is rising out of a 20-week trough, with the 20-week, 80-day, and 40-day cycles all pushing upward. For different entry options, watch the 7-minute video (link below). 

 

Reference:
David Hickson (September 15, 2025) - FLD Trading Opportunity in Bitcoin. (video) 

See also: 

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin | David Hickson

The S&P 500 suggests a Hurst 20-week cycle trough has formed on August 1, but the NASDAQ and Bitcoin point to a trough that still lies ahead. This divergence underscores the need for cross-market confirmation before drawing firm conclusions.

S&P 500: The April 7 trough of 18-month or larger magnitude underpins the ongoing bullish bias. Sentient Trader Hurst cycle analysis software places the 20-week trough in early August, but the FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) interaction rating is weak (~30%), leaving doubt about whether it was the 20-week low. Price has shown some support at the 20-day FLD, but evidence remains mixed.

 

The April 7 trough of 18-month or larger magnitude underpins the ongoing bullish bias. 

 

If the early-August low was indeed the 20-week trough, the S&P 500 could break above its mid-August highs and extend higher into autumn. If not, the index still has a decline due, possibly into late August, before resuming its primary uptrend. Traders should await confirmation through clearer FLD interaction.

Schematic 18-Month Cycle Projection for the S&P 500.

 

David Hickson's cycle analysis software, Sentient Trader, calculates the current average wavelength of the nominal 40-week cycle or 9-month cycle in the S&P 500 as only 32.4 weeks (the colored boxes on the price scale at the bottom right of Sentient Trader charts show the average lengths of cycles), whereas the above schematic projection of the 18-month cycle uses Hurst's original average wavelength of 38.97 weeks or 272 days. This represents a difference of 46 days, or 6.6 weeks (Hurst's Principle of Variation). David F. recently calculated the average wavelength of the 40-week cycle over the last 15 iterations since February 2015 to be 259 days, or 37 weeks. Sentient Trader's 20-week cycle currently measures only 16.8 weeks and favored the August 1 low as the 20-week cycle trough. In contrast, Hurst's original value of 19.48 weeks aligned exactly with the recent W formation or double bottom in the S&P 500 on August 20-22.

 

 

 

Hurst's original approach identifies harmonic cycle lengths between lows, and in any composite or summation of a set of cycles with 2:1 ratios of length and amplitude, the crests of individual cycles actually become troughs in the summation line (thick black line). Hurst analysis can also be used to identify cycles between highs, as illustrated by the gold example below.

Schematic composite cycle projection for the S&P 500 during the 

bullish 9-month cycle phase of the current 18-Month Cycle.

Assuming the S&P 500 is in the first bullish half of the third and last 18-month cycle within the current 54-month cycle (which allegedly began in October 2022), and there is no uplifting and dominant influence of the 9-year, 18-year, or 54-year cycles, the upcoming 40-week cycle peak, anticipated around late September to early October, would be a long-term market top. Downward pressure would then lead the S&P 500 through a series of major lower lows and lower highs into the 54-month cycle trough projected into the third quarter of 2026. The same should be true for the NASDAQ. 

 

NASDAQ: Like the S&P 500, the April 18-month and June 80-day troughs are confirmed, but the early August price action points more convincingly to a 40-day trough, not a 20-week low. The FLD sequence is highly rated (~54%), with clean breakdowns below the 20-day FLD, suggesting the 20-week trough still lies ahead. This cycle evidence looks stronger than in the S&P 500.

 

 In the NASDAQ, Sentient Trader's nominal 20-week cycle currently uses an average wavelength of 20.9 weeks,

and therefore anticipates the 20-week cycle trough in late August or early September (thick dashed orange line).

The NASDAQ is likely to weaken into late August as it completes the 20-week cycle trough. Once that trough forms, the structure points to a strong rebound into a 40-week cycle high around late September, consistent with the dominant 18-month cycle uptrend. Until then, resistance at the 20-day FLD should cap the price.

Gold: Remains rangebound beneath a potential 12-year cycle peak on April 22, but its phasing is uncertain. A recent 20-day cycle trough has been confirmed, providing short-term support. Price is currently trapped in a wedge, with both 40-day and 80-day VTLs (Valid Trend Lines) acting as boundaries.

 

A breakout above the wedge would lead to a potential 12-year cycle peak before a larger decline.

 

The immediate bias is for a short-term rise as the 20-day cycle exerts upward pressure. A breakout above the wedge or VTL resistance would open the door to new highs before the larger decline sets in. Failure to break higher could prolong sideways action.

 

 

» Going for a breakout here—it’s going to be a sizable move after four months of consolidation. «

Bitcoin: Cycle structure is very clear and highly rated (~69%). The 20-week trough has not yet formed; instead, price is in decline following a textbook F-category interaction at the 20-day FLD. Early August marked only a 40-day trough, not the larger low.

 

In Bitcoin, Sentient Trader averages the nominal wavelength of the 20-week cycle as 20.5 weeks,

and projects the cycle trough into the first week of September.

 

 

Bitcoin Hurst Cycle Analysis, BraVoCycles Newsletter, August 31, 2025.

Price is expected to continue falling into the 20-week trough, likely completing within weeks. A rebound should follow once the trough is established, though risks remain of a bearish asymmetry if the cycle phasing proves misaligned. The short-term bias for Bitcoin remains downward.

 

Reference:
David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - That 20-Week Cycle Trough - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

See also:
David Hickson (August 12, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

David F. (August 22, 2025) - Wavelenghts of Stockmarkets, Cryptocurrencies, Forex, Metals, Bonds, Rates & Commodities.
TPR (August 5, 2025)  - Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle.

TPR (2025) - J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory.

Martin Armstrong (2008) - The 8.6 Month or 37.33 Week Internal Cycle.