January Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

January during midterm election years opens strong across the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. All of them typically peak around Wednesday, January 7, and fade some 3% heading into Monday, January 26.

January opens strong, then fades – weak into around the 26th.

  

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, January 7, 2026.

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

  

A historical pattern where the S&P 500's first five trading days of the year rising over 1%—as seen in 2026 with

a 1.1% gain—correlates with positive full-year returns 87.1% of the time since 1950, averaging 15.7% gains.

 

 S&P 500's Average Daily Return and  Percent of Days Positive, for every calendar date (1950-2025).

 

See also:

TPR (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Stock Indices.