May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

The S&P 500 has posted gains during the first three trading days of May in 19 of the past 28 years.

 

Early May Strength Turns to Chop Until Late Month Pop.

Weakness often emerges around the May 6 (Wed),  May 8-12 (Fri-Tue), and after May 18 (Mon). The final four days usually post solid gains (May 26-29, Tue-Fri), though the last day of May has been notably weak.

 

In midterm election years, May typically starts higher but turns broadly weak by May 5 (Tue), with softness persisting through most of the month.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 1, 2026) - Early May Strength Turns to Chop Until Late Month Pop.

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024. 

 

S&P 500 Average Performance and Hit Rate per Day (1928-2024). 

   

In the Four-Year Presidential Cycle, May of midterm election years has historically been the weakest,

with all major indices avg. declines: DJIA –0.08%, S&P 500 –0.63%, NASDAQ –0.76%, NYSE –1.19%.

  

Historical S&P 500 data shows May averages just 0.38% gain since 1950 overall, but improves to 2.58% average and

9-1 record in the 10 years with April gains of 5% or higher, including the last seven straight positives post-1985. 

 

When the S&P 500 closes April at a new all-time monthly high since the early 1960s (17 instances shown), 
the remainder of the calendar year has been positive 100% of the time with an average gain of +10.35%. 

 

 

See also: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Alex Krainer (April 27, 2026) - S&P 500 Dumb Money Confidence Enters Extreme Optimism. 

@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - DJIA 2026 vs Top Three Midterm Correlated Years Since 1886.

Namzes (April 19, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low. 

Nicholas D. Savino (May 2, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for May 2026.

DJIA 2026 vs Top Three Midterm Correlated Years Since 1886 | @Fiorente2

Plotting all 35 midterm-election years for the DJIA since 1886, the spread of outcomes is enormous: In difficult midterm years, the DJIA has fallen by as much as 25% (1966), while in stronger years it has gained up to 45%. The average of ±2% is likely the most realistic expectation right now, given the current environment.

 

Chart 1: DJIA 2026 versus the Top Three Midterm Correlated Years:

1898 = approx. +20% (correlation 0.764); 1926 = ended the year flat (0.716); 1966 = approx. -20% (0.826). 

However, to get a sharper view, the three midterm years with the highest correlation to 2026 DJIA performance (from January through last week) were selected and charted: 1966, 1926, and 1898 (Chart 1).  

• 1966 has the strongest correlation (0.826).  
• 1898 (0.764) is the bullish outlier: if 2026 follows that path, the market could go bazooka from here.  
• 1926 (0.716) sits in the middle, and curiously, its path aligns with the average of the top three.

 

Chart 2: DJIA 2026 vs 1966 and Top Three Composites. In 1966, the DJIA printed its yearly low in early October.

  

Each of these years carries its own resonance: 

• In 1898, the US was just emerging as a global power through victory in the Spanish-American War. 
• In 1926, an industrial revolution was reshaping the economy. 
• In 1966, tariffs, war, inflation, and a punishing midterm election defined the landscape.  

The bias points toward 1966 (Chart 2): The correlation is the strongest, and the themes are too close to ignore: tariffs, a costly overseas conflict with no clear exit, inflation concerns, and a midterm election that may punish the incumbent party. 

 

Reference:
@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - A US Midterm forecast on the DJIA.

 

Berkshire Hathaway's cash position has risen to a record above $370B, underscoring a scarcity of attractive valuations and ongoing reductions in holdings such as Apple. Warren Buffett has described recent market pullbacks as modest relative to historical downturns, drawing parallels to the elevated cash levels he maintained ahead of the 1999 dot-com crash and the 2007 financial crisis—periods when major equities ultimately fell by 80–90%.

See also:

@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - An Update on the DJIA and the Jupiter-Saturn Cycle.

@Fiorente2 (March 16, 2026) - The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 23, 2026) - Trump Presidency Seasonal Cycle Pattern: Q1 Shock. Q2-Q4 Awe.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Namzes (April 19, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low.

S&P 500 in Wyckoff Markdown Phase | Major Low in July

In Wyckoff's Distribution Schematic, the S&P 500 (ES) has completed the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and the Test of Upthrust (TOU) sequence near the upper boundary of the trading range (Phase D). 

 The blue circle marks the current location of the S&P 500.

 

Following the Last Point of Supply (LPSY – Return to ICE) and the Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW), the S&P transitioned into clear Failure to Improve and Markdown type price action (Phase E) outside the trading range (Phases A to D). The decline is characterized by repeated failures to reclaim prior support levels, expanding supply, and the absence of sustained demand sponsorship. 

 

The Eternal Recurrence of the Same Wyckoff Cycle.

Any rally and retracement in April will likely be choppy and shallow and reflect Re-Distribution within the current Markdown Phase, which is expected to resume into July or even October. Measured from the April 2025 low to the January 2026 high, the absolute minimum downside target for the ES markdown is the 50% retracement near 5,940; however, in 2026 a deeper decline of 20%+ to around 5,350 or 4,830 is far more likely.

 

See also:

Alex Krainer (March 27, 2026) - Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Branimir Vojcic (March 23, 2026) - S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low.

TPR (March 19, 2026) - 20-Week Cycle Low in the S&P 500 and US Stock Indexes | Major Low in July.

April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Over the past 21 years (solid lines in the chart below), April has exhibited a pattern of steady gains starting around April 7 (Tue)(Trading Day 5) and continuing through the end of the month, with only minor fluctuations along the way. Overall, it has generally finished positive across the board.

 

Midterm election years since 1950 (dashed lines) show strength from April 7 (Tue) through mid-April only, followed by choppy trading that typically ends the month flat or in negative territory.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Weaker in Midterm Election Years.

 

S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

  

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Nicholas D. Savino (April 1, 2026) - April 2026 S&P 500 Forecast.

March Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Beginning on March 2 (Mon) (Trading Day 1), the US stock market historically follows two distinct paths. Over the recent 21-year period (solid lines in the chart below), March tends to open positively with modest gains through March 4 (Wed) (TD 3) before weakness leads to a sharp dip around March 9 (Mon) (TD 6). While indices typically move higher from March 16 (Mon) (TD 11), the NASDAQ and S&P 500 usually lead this recovery into the final close on March 31 (Tue) (TD 22).

 

March generally finishes positive across all major indices.

  

In contrast, Midterm Election years since 1950 (dotted lines) show significantly greater historical strength, potentially as a rebound from a typically tepid February. This cycle produces a front-loaded rally where R2K small caps flip from laggards to leaders, often outpacing S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ. Strength generally persists until the Spring Equinox, reaching a seasonal peak on March 20 (Fri) (TD 15). After this point, indices tend to lose momentum and close out the month with choppy trading. Despite these differing mid-month trajectories, March has a 64% win rate, generally finishing positive across all indices.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 25, 2026) - March’s Seasonal Pattern – Early Strength Persists Longer in Midterm Years. 

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

 

Detrended S&P 500 Seasonality.

 

Detrended VIX Seasonality (see also HERE). 

 

S&P 500 First 10 Days and Last 10 Days of the Month (1928-2024).

 

 S&P 500's Average Daily Return & Percent of Days Positive (1928-2024).

 

 DJIA (daily bars).

 

CNN Fear & Greed Index.

Bank of America's Bull & Bear Index hit 9.3 on February 24, crossing the contrarian "sell" threshold above 8, indicating excessive optimism among global fund managers. Historically, such readings preceded median three-month drawdowns of 5.5% for the S&P 500, and 8.6% for the Nasdaq.

 See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Branimir Vojcic (February 23, 2026) - VIX Cycles: Forecasting Volatility Peaks Through 2032. 

Larry Williams (February 19, 2026) - 2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa.

TPR (February 22, 2026) - S&P 500 Hurst Analysis: Projection into Mid-March 20-Week Cycle Low. 

Nicholas D. Savino (March 1, 2026) - March 2026 S&P 500 Forecast.

February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

According to the specific midterm data (1950–2022) indicated by the dotted lines on the chart below, the market typically begins with weakness, hitting an initial seasonal low on February 5 (Thu) (Trading Day 4) before attempting a choppy recovery.

 

 

This leads to a secondary dip around February 9 (Mon) just before a historical mid-month surge. This peak typically culminates on February 18 (Wed) (Presidents' Day February 16 (Mon), OpEx February 20 (Fri)). 

 

Following this peak, the "February Reversal" takes hold. In midterm years, the market typically enters a sideways trend, struggling to sustain gains. Conversely, the 21-year average shows a steadier decline that carries the market toward its final monthly low on February 27 (Fri).

 

Reference: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 27, 2026) - February has opened strongly but then reverses after Presidents’ Day.

  

DJIA eyes 9-month win streak: Historically, 2-month

follow-up gains are 100% certain, averaging +5.34%. 

 

DJIA & NASDAQ Up 81.0% of time on first trading day of February. Average gains 
have been respectable ranging from 0.39% by DJIA to 0.64% from NASDAQ. 

Update February 9, 2026.

See also:

Nicholas D. Savino (February 1, 2026) - February 2026 S&P 500 Forecast.  

 David Hickson (January 26, 2026) - Unraveling the Hurst Cycles Harmony of the US Stock Market.

Namzes (January 5, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

NDR (December 31, 2025) - 2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential, and Decennial Cycles.

January Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

January during midterm election years opens strong across the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. All of them typically peak around Wednesday, January 7, and fade some 3% heading into Monday, January 26.

January opens strong, then fades – weak into around the 26th.

  

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, January 7, 2026.

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

  

A historical pattern where the S&P 500's first five trading days of the year rising over 1%—as seen in 2026 with

a 1.1% gain—correlates with positive full-year returns 87.1% of the time since 1950, averaging 15.7% gains.

 

 S&P 500's Average Daily Return and  Percent of Days Positive, for every calendar date (1950-2025).

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns.