Hurst Cycles Update for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin | David Hickson

S&P 500: The index is descending toward a 20-week cycle trough, with shorter cycles stretching—an indication that the underlying trend has turned bearish. A larger 18-month cycle trough later in the year remains a possibility if the decline accelerates. 

S&P 500 (daily candles), February to March 2026 (left) and November to March (right).

Price is now moving down toward a 20-week cycle trough expected imminently, with stretched shorter cycles reinforcing a bearish trend condition. If downward momentum persists, the market could continue declining toward the next projected major trough in early May, possibly forming a deeper cyclical low.

Bitcoin: By contrast, Bitcoin may already have formed an 18-month cycle trough in early February, but its failure to rebound strongly raises doubts about that interpretation. The weak response suggests potential bearish continuation into the next larger cycle trough.

 

Bitcoin (daily candles), February to March 2026.

Bitcoin’s suspected 18-month cycle trough in early February has not produced the strong rebound typically expected after such a major low. The 20-day FLD failed to provide support, an important bearish signal. Although short-term cycles may be attempting to form a local trough, the market must soon demonstrate upward momentum. Failure to do so would imply that Bitcoin remains in a bearish phase progressing toward a deeper longer-term trough.

Reference:
David Hickson (March 9, 2026) - SPX, ASX & BTC - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

See also:

Tom McClellan (March 6, 2026) - Extreme Backwardation in VIX Futures.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 25, 2026) - February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.
TPR (February 22, 2026) - S&P 500 Hurst Analysis: Projection into Mid-March 20-Week Cycle Low.