■ Q1 Momentum:
The year opens with a steady advance, peaking in late February or early
March. This "January Effect" extension is a hallmark of the early
presidential cycle.
■ Spring/Summer Volatility: A corrective phase takes hold in April, followed by a summer of "choppy" price action. This phase lacks a clear trend, reflecting typical mid-cycle hesitation.
■ Spring/Summer Volatility: A corrective phase takes hold in April, followed by a summer of "choppy" price action. This phase lacks a clear trend, reflecting typical mid-cycle hesitation.
2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential, and Decennial Cycles.
■ Midterm Lows: The cycle forecasts a deep seasonal trough in early October. This alignment with the midterm election cycle suggests a period of maximum pessimism before a reversal.
■ Year-End Recovery and Positive Finish: A strong fourth-quarter rally is projected to lift the index out of its autumn lows, finishing 2026 in positive territory, albeit with more tempered gains than a typical "bull" year.
