Looking at the monthly chart for Bitcoin dating back to 2014 (chart 1),
we observe the long-term cycle structure. The 54-month cycle (orange) contains three 18-month
cycles (yellow), creating a 3:1 harmonic ratio.
Chart 1: Bitcoin (monthly candles), 2014 to January 2026.
Chart 2: Bitcoin (weekly candles), 2022 to January 2026.
Based on the Composite Model Line (dashed orange line on chart 2), we are assuming an 18-month trough has formed on November 21, 2025. The timing is nearly perfect, occurring 1,092 days—exactly two average 18-month cycles—after the November 2022 low (chart 4).
Chart 3: Bitcoin (weekly candles), 2025 to January 2026.
Chart 4: Bitcoin (daily candles), 2022 to January 2026.
However, the
subsequent price action has been insufficiently bullish to confirm this
bottom definitively (charts 4 and 5).
Chart 5: Bitcoin (daily candles), November 2025 to January 2026.
The
market currently faces a pivotal technical junction at the 20-week FLD. A successful cross above the FLD within the next fortnight would validate the November trough;
conversely, resistance at the FLD line would indicate the 18-month low is
delayed until February or March 2026 (chart 5).
In the immediate term, Bitcoin is
navigating an 80-day cycle trough expected this week,
currently tracking a downside target of approximately $86,760 (chart 5).
