Today, we are focusing exclusively on Bitcoin. Looking only at short-term 20, 40, or 80-day cycles for the next few weeks makes it easy to get caught up and lose sight of the bigger picture. In
the coming updates, I will conduct similar in-depth analyses of our
other tracked instruments to ensure we
maintain a clear perspective on their broader market cycles.
Looking at the monthly chart for Bitcoin with data dating back to 2014 (chart 1), we can observe the long-term cycle structure. Following Hurst's nominal model, this orange 54-month cycle typically contains three 18-month cycles, creating a 3:1 harmonic ratio.
Chart 1: Bitcoin (monthly candles), 2014 to January 2026.
Chart 2: Bitcoin (weekly candles), 2022 to January 2026.
Based on the dashed orange Composite Model Line (CML) on the weekly chart 2, using a logarithmic price scale, we are assuming an 18-month trough formed on November 21 of last year. This timing is nearly perfect, occurring 1,092 days—exactly two average 18-month cycles—after the November 2022 low (chart 4).
Chart 3: Bitcoin (weekly candles), 2025 to January 2026.
Chart 4: Bitcoin (daily candles), 2022 to January 2026.
However, the
subsequent price action has been insufficiently bullish to confirm this
bottom definitively.
Chart 5: Bitcoin (daily candles), November 2025 to January 2026.
The
market currently faces a pivotal technical junction at the 20-week
Future Line of Demarcation (FLD). A successful cross above this level
within the next fortnight would validate the November trough;
conversely, resistance at this line would indicate the 18-month low is
delayed until February or March 2026 (chart 5).
In the immediate term, Bitcoin is
navigating an 80-day cycle trough expected within this week,
currently tracking a downside target of approximately $86,760 (chart 5).
Regardless of the exact timing of the recent pivot, the overarching
trajectory for the next 18 months remains downward as the market aligns
with its 2027 cyclical floor.
See also:
David Hickson (December 15, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Market Update and Outlook into Early 2026.
Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500.
Namzes (December 31, 2026) - US Stock Market Forecast: 25% Bear Market and Recovery.
Namzes (January 8, 2026) - 2026 Gold Forecast.