S&P and NASDAQ Hurst Cycle Troughs by Late August | David Hickson

The S&P 500 analysis highlights a significant 18-month cycle trough formed in early April 2025, potentially of greater magnitude, driving recent bullish price action. An 80-day cycle trough occurred in the third week of June, aligning with the 80-day Future Line of Demarcation (FLD), a key cycle tool indicating support levels. 

 

An 18-month cycle trough in April 2025 has fueled recent gains, with an 80-day cycle trough in June confirming support via the FLD. A 40-day trough is due late July, followed by a deeper 20-week trough in August, forming a bullish M-shape pattern under longer-cycle upward pressure.

 

The dashed red composite model line aggregates cycle wavelengths and amplitudes to project future price movements. It closely mirrors past price action and forecasts a 40-day cycle trough in the third or final week of July, followed by a 20-week cycle trough around the third week of August. The composite model suggests a 20-week cycle peak is imminent or may have just occurred, with prices expected to decline into the 40-day trough, bounce slightly, and then fall into the 20-week trough, forming a bullish, distorted M-shape due to upward pressure from longer 18-month and 40-week cycles. The 20-week FLD will be critical for confirming support at the August trough, with shorter FLDs used to verify the peak.

The NASDAQ mirrors this pattern, with a significant cycle trough in April (at least 40-week magnitude, possibly 18-month), and a similar sequence of a 40-day trough in late July and a 20-week trough by late August. The composite model line indicates a smaller bounce after the 40-day trough compared to the S&P 500, but bullish pressure persists due to the April trough’s magnitude.

 

Tracking similarly to the S&P, the NASDAQ saw a major April trough (40-week or 18-month), with a 40-day cycle low expected in late July and a 20-week trough by late August. The bounce may be smaller than the S&P’s, but bullish momentum continues due to the strength of the April trough.

 

The 80-day FLD supported the June trough, and the 20-week FLD will be monitored to confirm support for the August trough, especially if the April trough matches the S&P 500’s 18-month magnitude. The principle of commonality underscores the synchronized movements across these markets. While the composite model’s price projections are less reliable due to cycle amplitude and wavelength variations, its shape provides a clear guide for expected market trends over the next several weeks.

 

Reference: 
David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - Perfect Cycles - Hurst Cycles Market Update - 14 July 2025. (video)

 

See also:

David Hickson (June 30, 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500.

Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ | David Hickson

The S&P 500 formed a subtle 80-day cycle trough around June 23, 2025, and is expected to rise toward a 20-week cycle peak in mid-July 2025 with moderate upward momentum (red dashed line). 

  

 

A decline into a 20-week trough is anticipated around mid-August 2025, with a longer-term target of 7,233 later in the year.

 

The NASDAQ is expected to continue its bullish trend, moving upward to form a 20-week cycle peak around mid-July, followed by a decline into a 20-week cycle trough expected in mid-August to early September. 

 

Reference:
David Hickson (June 30, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

 See also: 

David Hickson (June 17, 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Timing & Straddled Troughs in the S&P 500.  

TPR (June 27, 2025)  - Cosmic Cluster Days | July 2025. 

Jeff Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices. 

Bullish Hurst Cycle Targets for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin | David Hickson

For the S&P 500, an 18-month cycle trough likely formed on April 7, 2025, with confidence upgraded from the prior 80-day cycle analysis. A 40-day cycle trough occurred on May 7, 2025, with price holding above the 20-day FLD, signaling bullishness. An 80-day cycle trough is expected in the first week of June 2025, preceded by a peak. A 20-week cycle trough is anticipated around August 2025. Price crossing the 80-day FLD targets 6,360 before the June trough, while crossing the 20-week FLD targets 6,780 before the August trough. The 80-day FLD should provide support in June. Staying above the 20-day FLD during the 40-day trough and FLD crossings reflect strong bullish momentum, reinforcing the April 18-month trough.

 80-Day Cycle Trough expected around the first week of June, with a prior peak around 6,360.

18-Month Cycle Trough on April 7, 2025, with increased confidence from prior 80-day cycle analysis.
40-Day Cycle Trough on May 7, 2025, with price staying above the 20-day FLD, indicating bullishness.
80-Day Cycle Trough around the first week of June 2025, with a peak forming beforehand.
20-Week Cycle Trough around August 2025.

80-Day FLD Crossing generated a target of ~6,360, expected before the 80-day cycle trough in June 2025.
20-Week FLD Crossing generated a target of ~6,780, expected before the 20-week cycle trough in August 2025.
Support Level: The 80-day FLD is expected to provide support during the 80-day cycle trough in June 2025.

For Bitcoin, a 40-week cycle trough likely formed in early April 2025, supported by price finding stability at the 40-week FLD. A recent 40-day cycle trough formed with price at or above the 20-day FLD, showing bullishness. An 80-day cycle trough is expected by late June 2025, following a peak. An 18-month or possible 54-month cycle trough occurred in August 2024. The 40-week FLD provided support in April, and prior crossing generated an achieved upside target. Shortened cycles, like the early 40-day trough, suggest a bullish trend. Price behavior at the 20-day FLD and FLD support confirm the 40-week trough, though shorter cycle positioning, like the 20-week trough, remains uncertain. 

 80-Day Cycle Trough expected toward the end of June 2025, with a peak around 109,697 forming prior.

40-Week Cycle (= 9-Month Cycle) Trough likely formed in early April 2025, with evidence of support at the 40-week FLD.
40-Day Cycle Trough formed recently, with price staying at or above the 20-day FLD, indicating bullishness.
80-Day Cycle Trough  expected by end of June 2025, with a peak forming prior.
18-Month Cycle Trough formed in August 2024 (potentially a 54-month cycle trough).

40-Week FLD Interaction: Price found support at the 40-week FLD level in April 2025, confirming the trough.
Upside Target: Prior 40-week FLD crossing generated a target (achieved), with current bullishness suggesting further upside to around 109,697 and 123,519.

Reference:
David Hickson (May 19, 2025)  - Bullish Cycle Targets - Hurst Cycles Market Update for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. (video) 

 

See also:

Krasi (May 17, 2025)  - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis. 

Namzes (April 18, 2025)  - 2025 vs V-Shaped Recoveries of 1965, 1992, and 2018. 

 

Current 20-Day Cycle in the S&P expected to bottom during first week of June.
 

 S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue.

 

Russell 2000 and NASDAQ historically strongest in
week before Memorial Day (Monday, May 26).

 

 US Fed bought $43.6 billion in treasuries in 4 days.

Hurst Time-Price Cycle Analysis for the S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

For the S&P 500, the target for the 20-day cycle bottom was 5,812. We are currently in a bearish 80-day cycle, with a downside target set at 4,660. It has been 528 days since the 18-month cycle trough in October 2023. 

 

 S&P 500 (weekly bars).

In both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, the 40-day cycle trough is likely to occur 

next week around April 14-18, and the 18-month cycle trough around mid-May.

The average duration of an 18-month cycle is 546 days, meaning we still have some time before the 18-month cycle trough is expected. We anticipate that this upcoming trough around mid-May will be more significant than a typical 18-month cycle.

 NASDAQ (daily bars).

In the NASDAQ, the situation is similar. We are heading toward a major cycle trough, expected around mid-May. A 40-day cycle trough is likely to occur sometime next week (April 14-18).

Reference:
David Hickson (7 April 2025) - Bear Cycle Targets - Hurst Cycles Market Update (SPX, NDX, ASX, NIFTY-50, GOLD, BTCUSD) (video)

 

See also:

Martin Armstrong (April 4, 2025) - DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2.

Hurst Cycles Forecast Bearish Q1 for S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

The first quarter of 2025 is expected to be bearish for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Following the 40-day cycle trough observed in early December, the S&P 500 is expected to form a 80-day cycle trough around mid-January, i.e., this week.

 

 

 S&P 500 down into late March or early April.

A significant cycle trough in the first few months of 2025 is anticipated, likely around March or April. The price action as it exits the 80-day cycle trough will be crucial in determining the strength of the recovery or the continuation of the bearish trend.

 NASDAQ down into May.

The NASDAQ's 20-week cycle trough was formed in mid-December, and a significant 18-month cycle trough is expected around May 2025. A weak bounce from this week's low would indicate further bearish movement into May.

Reference:
David Hickson (January 13, 2025) - A Bearish Start to 2025 - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold, and Bitcoin | David Hickson

Reference:
David Hickson (October 14, 2024) - Early Cycle Troughs - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

Hurst Cycle Projection for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 | David Hickson

 

There is uncertainty regarding the 20-day cycle trough's exact timing. The average length for this cycle is 17 days. Positioning the trough on August 22 aligns better with the 40-day cycle, which should be forming around September 9.

 

In the NASDAQ, similar trends are observed. The crest of the red dashed line of the Hurst Cycle Composite is around Quadruple Witching Friday, September 20 ± a few trading days.

Reference:
David Hickson (September 9, 2024) - The 40-Day Trough - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 5, 2024) - S&P 500 September 2024 Seasonality.

Wayne Whaley (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October.

Robert Miner (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Uptrend May Extend to 5,800 Into Equinox.