S&P 500: In our previous update, we identified three possible 20-week cycle troughs, and after comparing with less bullish markets (Nifty, ASX), concluded that the most likely occurred in the first few days of September. Price behavior since then supports that view. The next 20-day cycle trough likely occurred around September 25, slightly longer than average at 23 days.
Price is rising from the 20-week cycle trough on September 2. The market is still bullish, moving up from either a 20- or 40-day trough, with the next expected 40-day or 80-day cycle trough due within one weeks to ten days. The 40-week cycle trough is projected around January 2026.
This mild irregularity raises the question of whether that trough was in fact an early 40-day one, since we’re due for another in about a week to ten days. Regardless, price remains in an upswing, moving out of that trough, and we stay bullish until the market gives evidence of peaking.
Looking at the bigger picture, the S&P 500 has a 54-month (4½-year) cycle trough in October 2022, followed by 18-month troughs in October 2023 and April 2025. The strong rally since April suggests that the trough may be of greater magnitude. We expect a 40-week cycle trough in January 2026, and a major 18-month (or possibly 54-month) trough by September 2026. Until then, the market remains upward-biased with periodic corrections.
NASDAQ: The NASDAQ shows nearly identical structure: a 20-week trough on September 2, and a 20-day trough on September 25. A 40-day cycle trough is due around mid-October.
Also rising from the September 2 20-week trough. A 40-day cycle trough is expected between mid- and late October, followed by a move down into the January 2026 40-week trough. The market remains up until evidence of a peak forms.On the larger scale, the NASDAQ shares the same October 2022 54-month base and subsequent 18-month troughs in October 2023 and April 2025, placing it in its third 18-month cycle—historically the least bullish. If this up-move fails to sustain, it could turn sharply bearish. A 40-week trough is expected in January 2026, followed by a deeper 18-month or 54-month trough toward late 2026.
Australian ASX: The ASX has been valuable for cross-checking the US indices because it hasn’t been as relentlessly bullish. Its 20-week trough also appeared around early September, confirming cycle alignment. After a hesitant bounce, the ASX regained strength last week. Shorter cycles (20-day and 40-day) are slightly stretched, and a 40-day trough is due soon, followed by an 80-day in November and a 40-week trough in January 2026.
The 20-week trough occurred on September 2–3; price struggled initially but recovered strongly from the 20-day trough. A 40-day trough is due within a week, an 80-day trough in November, and the 40-week trough in January 2026.Its longer-term 40-month cycle (analogous to a 54-month in US markets) bottomed in April 2025, explaining the strong upward pressure. The ASX is expected to peak later this year, then weaken into January 2026 before another rally.
Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s 20-week trough formed in early September, consistent with equities. The 20-day/40-day identification remains uncertain, but price is currently advancing from that base.
The 20-week trough appeared in the first days of September. Price is currently rising, but it will later move down under the influence of the 40-week and 18-month cycles into a trough expected January 2026.On the broader scale, Bitcoin’s 54-month trough came in December 2022, with an 18-month trough in August 2024 and a 40-week trough in April 2025. Its next key trough, of 18-month magnitude, is due in January 2026. Although the coming decline should be mild due to limited amplitude, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum may fade into early 2026 before the next major upswing.