Gold and Silver: Final Repricing Before Breakout | Dieter Lüscher

Dieter Lüscher of Premium Strategy Partners AG, one of Switzerland’s most recognized wealth managers, has issued a stark and timely warning on gold and silver. Known for managing ultra-high-net-worth portfolios and repeatedly ranked among the best in conservative risk strategies, Lüscher argues that the current price weakness is not what it appears. In his latest interview, he outlines a scenario that suggests the market may be approaching a turning point.

 

Silver’s multi-decade breakout above $50 is the linchpin. Holding this level confirms the long-term bullish thesis.

 

» In Gold the sell-off that started from 5,598 levels is correcting the last parabolic phase of the uptrend. Previous resistance at 4,550 levels becomes the new support. Long-term uptrend is intact. In the short-term we are seeing consolidation and a drop in volatility. A risk off environment in Global Markets can result in a correction in Gold given its liquidity and appreciation over the past couple of months. It can be used as a source of cash. « 

Aksel Kibar, March 21, 2026.

Lüscher’s core message is that the current weakness may be a structurally driven dislocation rather than a reflection of deteriorating fundamentals. If his assessment holds, the present environment could represent a transitional phase before stronger upward momentum resumes, potentially alongside a longer-term shift in global pricing influence.

  

The Quarter-End Dynamic

According to Lüscher, commercial banks and short-position holders continue to carry substantial exposure in the futures and options markets, with a significant expiry window just days away. The incentive structure is straightforward: downward pressure into expiry maximizes the likelihood that these options expire out of the money, allowing institutions to retain premium income. While this pattern has repeated for over a decade, Lüscher suggests the current setup may represent a late-stage iteration rather than a routine cycle.

 

The latest CFTC COT report details an increase of 3,779 gold short contracts by non-commercial traders (hedge funds), representing 377,900 ounces or approximately $1.55 billion in new downside exposure. This positioning coincided with a 72-hour gold price decline from $4,520 to $4,100. Total hedge fund short exposure currently stands at 56,092 contracts (5.61 million ounces), valued at $23 billion. Market structure remains heavily leveraged, with large speculators holding 215,961 long positions against 284,832 commercial short positions. This data suggests price volatility is driven by technical positioning and liquidity pressure rather than fundamental shifts.

A Potential Near-Term Bottom

Lüscher indicates that the market could be nearing a short-term bottom within days. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, he emphasizes that recent price action appears largely technical, driven more by derivatives positioning than by fundamental demand. Once the expiry window closes, he expects underlying demand dynamics to reassert themselves, potentially leading to a sharp reversal.

Shifting Pricing Power Toward Asia

Structural changes in global pricing mechanisms are also accelerating. India is moving toward pricing gold and silver ETFs based on domestic spot benchmarks rather than traditional London references, while China continues to promote yuan-denominated gold pricing in global markets. At the same time, inventory trends highlight divergence: Western exchange stocks have been declining, while Asian market dynamics are becoming increasingly influential.

»  Physical metal carries zero counterparty risk—exactly what investors and nations now demand. Wars
and exploding debt force massive new money printing that only gold and silver can truly absorb. «

 »  Expect a low in Gold at the end of April near $3,600-3,700. «

Bill Sarubbi, March 20, 2026. 

 

Focus on price action, patterns, and cycles. 

The Physical Market Tightens

On the supply side, Lüscher points to increasing fragmentation in silver distribution, with more output moving directly from mines to industrial users, bypassing traditional exchanges. This reflects a broader shift toward physical ownership, where counterparty risk is minimized—an increasingly important consideration amid rising geopolitical and financial uncertainty. Expanding fiscal deficits and monetary pressures further reinforce the role of precious metals as absorbers of excess liquidity.

 

Reference:

Dieter Lüscher (March 20, 2026) - This is why gold is at its bottom now. (DESHALB ist Gold JETZT am Tiefpunkt.) (video)

2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa | Larry Williams

Crude Oil

Larry Williams identifies a setup for potential decline, noting that commercials (via Commitments of Traders (COT) Report red line in the chart below) have ceased aggressive buying and are exiting the market, with the line declining after marking a recent bottom. 

 

The public (green line) has become heavy buyers, signaling vulnerability. His proprietary valuation indicator (gold line, based on Crude-Gold Ratio) shows overvaluation, similar to prior pullbacks. As a conditional trader, he views this as a setup but requires trend change confirmation. 

 

 Downward setup via overvaluation and commercial selling; imminent cyclical

downturn, low in March/June needing trend confirmation for shorts.

 

Cyclically (weekly charts), a downturn is imminent, with a low expected in about three months (around March or June), historically good for longs. He advises watching for sell signals in energy markets, emphasizing cycles for bias and timing.

Natural Gas

Williams was seeking a short-term buy opportunity but canceled orders due to lack of upward movement today, anticipating a possible bounce. He stresses evaluating the COT report to determine if commercials or the public are buying, cross-referenced with open interest for directional insight. While acknowledging a seasonal pattern, he deems it less significant than current buyer/seller dynamics via the COT.

Gold

Williams admits a prior bad call, expecting a cyclical high aligned with Bitcoin's peak, but Gold held firm. Currently, commercials (COT red line) are unusually buying the decline at high levels, a position not typical and reminiscent of past buy opportunities. He notes recent shorts in Silver and Copper have shifted.

 

Gold bullish from commercial decline-buys and March cycles; 

Silver similar with rally soon, upside late Feb/March on trend change.

 

Cyclically, short-term (red) and longer-term (blue) cycles converge in March, establishing a substantive buy point without implying a drop to chart lows. This timeframe warrants bullish attention, pending trend change.

Silver

Williams observes that Silver exhibits strong similarities to Gold, historically regarded as the "poor man's gold" but now akin to the "expensive man's gold." It follows a comparable cyclical pattern, indicating the onset of a rally within the ensuing couple of weeks from the time of discussion. Aligning with his year-end forecast, he anticipated initial downward pressure, followed by an upward shift around late February or early March. He emphasizes restraint in entry, requiring confirmation of an upside trend change—such as a trend line breakout or moving average signal—within that timeframe to qualify the trade.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Disparity in Advance/Decline, and Why Dow is Stronger

Williams affirms a bull market persisting through 2025 into mid-2027, dismissing pessimists based on repeated past errors. The advance-decline line (net cumulative advances vs. declines) is at new highs while stocks are not—an anomaly he has rarely seen, historically followed by higher prices, providing a fundamental bullish rationale. 

 

 

Bull to mid-2027 via advance-decline highs; Dow stronger than

S&P on value focus, mid-March cyclical buy/rally.

Comparing charts below: Dow Jones futures show a higher low and greater strength than S&P E-minis, attributed to fewer "hot stocks" like the Magnificent Seven in the Dow, which suffered hits. 

 

The Dow better represents quality and value, with funds shifting there for protection over speculation. As a trader, Williams is long Dow contracts, not S&P, due to Dow's outperformance. 

Cocoa

Williams sees a buy setup, though not yet long, awaiting trend change. Commercials (top pane red line) are adding positions amid declining total open interest (black line)—indicating others exit, a rare bullish "bubble up." Valuation (gold line, Cocoa-Gold Ratio) shows undervaluation, contrasting prior overvalued tops. 

 

 

Rally from commercial "bubble up" buys and undervaluation; 

short-term immediate, major in June/July with trend entry patience.

 

Cyclically, short-term (red) suggests immediate rally start; longer-term (blue) aligns with short-term around June/July for ideal entry and bigger move.

 

Reference:
NinjaTrader Live (February 18, 2026) - 2026 Market Outlook with Larry Williams. (video)
 

See also:

Foundation for the Study of Cycles (February 17, 2026) - Larry Williams on Inflation and the Coming Bear Market. (video) 

Larry Wiliams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.

Namzes (February 18, 2026) - 2026 Crude Oil Projection.
Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - 2025-2027 Oil Price Decline Linked to Solar Cycle Activity.

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - Strong Inverse Correlation between Ap Index and Gold Price.

2026 Market Forecast: S&P 500, Crude, Notes, Gold, and Bitcoin | Bill Sarubbi

US Stock Market Outlook and Q1 Correction

The equity markets appear to be nearing a significant peak, with a forecasted correction for the S&P 500 expected to intensify during the first week of February. Despite this initial volatility, the year-end target for the S&P remains 10% to 12% higher than current levels around 6,950. 

 

In November, the 15-month midterm election cycle will be the primary rally driver. 

 

Sarubbi's market summary indicates a Q1 correction in the S&P, with the S&P expected to rise by 10%-12% in 2026. This will be followed by a trading range in Q2 and Q3, and a rally in Q4. November marks the beginning of the 15-month mid-term election year cycle. Oil is anticipated to rally, and foreign markets are projected to extend their outperformance.
 

Regarding the US stock market, there is a short-term cycle that runs into the last week of January, which expires just as a weak short-term cycle begins in the first week of February. February and March are likely to be weak. There will be a Q1 correction, likely starting in February, with Q2 and Q3 forming a trading range. Q4 in any year has been bullish, and the 15 months beginning with the mid-term elections have been one of the most bullish time intervals.
 

On the topic of bubbles, Sarubbi notes that they usually do not occur in years ending in a 6. Most crises have occurred in the autumn of years ending in 7 or 8. For instance, on August 15, 1971, Nixon closed the gold window. On March 31, 1980, Carter signed the Monetary Control Act, which enabled the Fed to monetize any paper. With few limits on what can be monetized, the Fed could theoretically inflate the currency to infinity. Consequently, there is no limit to price increases.

 

Bill Sarubbi expects the S&P 500 in 2026 to unfold in three phases: a weak first quarter, a sideways trading range through the spring and summer, and a powerful rally in the fourth quarter driven by the historically potent 15-month midterm election cycle.
 

2026 Composite Cycle for the S&P 500.

 

Sarubbi's "Composite Cycle for the S&P 500 in 2026" begins at a high point in January 2026, followed by a general downward trend with minor oscillations through February and March. It experiences a modest recovery in April, and further undulations downward through late June. After a recovery into late-August early-September, a more pronounced decline occurs into a late-September early-October low of the year. From this trough, the US stock market ascends sharply through November and December 2026, continuing its upward trajectory into January 2027.

 

Above is the DJIA's expected return of all years ending in 6 that have also been 2 years past an election since 1885. Keep in mind that the 15-month period that follows the mid-term elections has been one of the most bullish time intervals. It appears logical to expect a Q1 correction followed by a trading range in the first 3 quarters of 2026.  

 

Long-Term Cycles and Inflationary Pressures

Current economic conditions mirror the 54-year cycle last seen in 1972, characterized by persistent price inflation, social unrest, and rising interest rates. This environment of "excess liquidity" is evidenced by record-breaking prices for collectibles and comic books. Furthermore, the removal of the gold window in 1971 and subsequent monetary acts have removed traditional limits on currency monetization, explaining gold’s ascent toward the $5,000 mark.

Sector Rotation and Technology Moderation

A primary theme for 2026 is the transition of leadership away from the "Magnificent Seven" and toward undervalued sectors. While technology will remain relevant, leadership is shifting to names like Intel and Micron rather than the overextended market leaders. 

 

Capital is expected to flow into healthcare, base materials, and emerging markets, the latter of which are breaking a 15-year relative downtrend against US equities.

Bullish Outlook for Energy and Oil

Oil presents a compelling "witches' brew" of bullish indicators: strong technical support between $50 and $55, extreme bearish sentiment, and favorable seasonal cycles. 

 

 Monthly Crude Oil Cycle.

A rally is anticipated through June, with stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB) showing classic technical breakout patterns. This sector stands to benefit most from the rotation of funds out of high-priced mega-cap tech.

Fixed Income, Gold, and Bitcoin

Fixed income remains unattractive, with the 10-year note facing strong seasonal headwinds in March. 

 

10-Year Notes monthly histogram.

 

US Notes are at the start of one of the most bearish weeks in any year. Over the last 43 years, price has fallen 81% of the time from the 19th through the 25th. See the daily histogram of expected return for December above. 

 

Gold.

Gold has exceeded recent objectives but is entering a seasonally weak period through March, with a projected short-term top near February 20. The gold cycle has peaked and the gold price has given an unmistakable signal. First, the rate of change became unsustainable. Then, in only 2 days, price has retraced 50% of its move from the October low. 

 

 

The gold cycle has peaked and the gold price has given an unmistakable signal. First, the rate of change became unsustainable. Then, in only 2 days, price has retraced 50% of its move from the October low. It must fall to $4050 to retrace 38.2% of its entire 2025 move. The peak occurs on a day when a new Fed chairman has been announced. The new Fed chief has indicated that he will not continue to inflate the currency. The monthly cycle does not show a meaningful low until July.  

 

 Bitcoin.

Conversely, Bitcoin continues to adhere closely to its cyclical data, suggesting a potential rally toward the $110,000 to $115,000 range by April.

Reference:
Bill Sarubbi (January 23, 2026) - Market Forecast 2026. (video)

 

See also: 

Namzes (January 5, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Larry Wiliams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.

Bill Sarubbi (b. 1949), writing under the pen name Bill Meridian, is an American financial strategist, author, and software developer who pioneered the integration of mundane astrology into institutional investment. After earning both a BS in Banking and an MBA in Corporate Finance from New York University in 1972, he launched a dual career on Wall Street while beginning his formal astrological studies under Charles A. Jayne, Jr., one of the leading astrologers of the last century. Their teacher-student relationship and friendship lasted until Jayne’s death in 1985. Sarubbi transformed the field in 1983 by designing AstroAnalyst, the first software to apply computer processing to financial astrology. His technical innovations—including efficiency tests and composite cycles—remain foundational to modern platforms such as Timing Solution. Parallel to his financial pursuits, he spent seven years in New York City training as a bioenergetic therapist under Dr. John Pierrakos. From 1990 to 2004, Sarubbi was based in Abu Dhabi (UAE), where he served as a Technology Fund Manager and Strategist for the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA). During his tenure at the sovereign wealth fund, he also sat on its Currency Hedging Committee. Throughout this period, he maintained his pen identity as "Bill Meridian," advising legendary trader Frankie Joe and authoring the mundane and stocks column for Dell Horoscope for 30 years. A certified expert in Uranian and Vibrational Astrology (Hamburg School), Sarubbi has authored several definitive texts, including 'Planetary Stock Trading' and 'The Predictive Power of Eclipse Paths.' Since 2000, he has operated Cycles Research Investments from Vienna, Austria, providing market advisory and fund management services that blend rigorous economic cycle analysis with astrological forecasting. A member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) since 1972, he currently serves as a member of its board of directors.

Silver Squeeze Blasts-Out Last Short Funds—Watch Grains | Oscar Carboni

I started in the silver pits as an 18-year-old kid back in 1982. For decades, Silver was stuck in a range between $7.50 and $21, even while other metals soared. While Gold moved from $265 to $4,000, and Copper and Palladium saw massive gains, Silver remained artificially suppressed.

» You must be careful not to "plow in" at these levels. «

Silver (daily chart).

For 40 years, major funds and big banks have held Silver down by selling it short and selling calls against it to collect premiums. They did this successfully for four decades until Silver finally got noticed by the broader public. What you are witnessing today is a massive, forced short squeeze. The funds that held short positions for 40 years finally got caught and are being forced to exit.
 

Caution in the Metals Sector

While the rally is exciting, you must be careful not to "plow in" at these levels. If you missed the initial move, you missed it. At $117, the volatility is extreme. Every $1 move in Silver represents a $5,000 gain or loss on a single lot. This looks like capitulation—the final "blow-off" top where the last remaining shorts are blasted out.

Gold (daily chart).

 

 Platinum (daily chart).

 

Copper (daily chart). 

 

Looking at the broader sector, Gold continues to trend within its reliable channels, and Platinum and Palladium are also moving higher. Copper had a fantastic rally today as well, moving at $250 per point.

 

The Next Opportunity: Grains

With Indices, Currencies, and Metals already having gone to the moon, I am looking for what is left. The answer is the Grain Market. Soybeans, Wheat, Corn, and Oats haven't moved yet. As spring planting approaches and other commodities become too expensive, watch for fund managers to rotate their capital into the grain sector.

Reference:
Oscar Carboni (January 26, 2026) - The Silver Squeeze Has Blown-out the last Hold-out Short Funds Today. (video)

 

Silver (XAGUSD, monthly closes, log scale): Long-term Cup and Handle breakouts with 10x price targets, 1800-2025.

 

See also:

Namzes (January 26, 2026) - Silver: Local Top Intraday, not THE Top yet.

 Andrew Hoese (December 28, 2025) - Silver and Commodities: The Case for Long-Term Investment.

2026 Gold Forecast | Namzes

Back in February 2024, our main call was to watch for Gold to break the 2,080–2,100 level, which would trigger a trend move; it has since moved up over 2x. Short-term moves are hard to call and cycles are not stable, so I focus on mini-trend moves where I can hold a position for several months. We are now approaching a potential multi-month peak, which will be followed by a sizable pullback.

 

 Updates to the 2025 Gold Forecast.

The main idea for 2026 is a peak in Q1 around February, followed by a 20%+ decline toward mid-summer in July and a subsequent resumption of the bull market. 

  

 Peak in February. 20%+ decline through July. Bull market resumption.

 

In the chart above the composite projection is shown in orange, with seasonality displayed in the middle. The 18-month cycle in the bottom panel is due for a low between April and August; while this long cycle has wide dispersion, the best guess is that an initial low occurs in April with the final low in July. 

 

 

 

I found the three most similar cycles and displayed them in the chart above with a composite line in pink. While this is a small sample size, it serves as a decent reference point.

 

Reference:

Namzes (January 8, 2026) - 2026 Gold Forecast.

Gold Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1975-2024).

See also:

Namzes (January 11, 2025) - 2025 Gold Forecast. 

Namzes (December 31, 2025) - 2026 US Stock Market Forecast: 25% Bear Market and Recovery.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns. 

Upcoming 40-Day Hurst Cycle Troughs: SPX, NDX, Crude Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

S&P 500 (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough ideally due December 23 (Tue)(± 5.49 CD). 

While the 20-week, 40-week, and 18-month cycles all remain in decline, a choppy counter-trend Santa Claus rally of uncertain

magnitude is expected into year-end early-January 2026 (see 'Schematic Structure of Hurst's Nominal 40-Day Cycle' below). 

Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026. 

[Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of

each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts.] 

 

 Schematic Structure of Hurst's Nominal 40-Day Cycle.

 

DJIA / CPI (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (1940-2025).

 

 NASDAQ (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).

 

 NASDAQ (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 23 (Tue). 

Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026.  

 

 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).

 

 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Current 18-Month Cycle (October 2024-December 2025).

 

Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 19-21 (Fri-Sun). One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month

cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around February 17 (Tue), 2026.  

 

 Gold (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (1995-2025).

 

 Gold (daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 28 (Sun) and January 5 (Mon), 2026. 

One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycle troughs 

are currently projected to around late February-mid March 2026. 

 

 Bitcoin (daily bars, log-scale): Long-Term Cycles (2010-2025).

 

 Bitcoin (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 20 (Sat).

Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 19 (Mon), 2026. 

[Cycle Analysis as of December 18, 2025 | 11:00 a.m. EST] 

 

See also:

David Hickson (December 15, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Market Update and Outlook into Early 2026.

Jack Gillen (December 1, 2025) - The Year-End Rally and January Effect in US Stocks.

Cyclic Vibrations Consultancy - TimeSeriesSCC Analytical Software.

  

Principles of Commonality and Variation.