Reference:
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Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Sunday, September 20, 2026
Spectrum Cycle Composites: S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow Jones | Sergey Ivanov
Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, Bitcoin | David Hickson
S&P 500: A 20-week trough formed July 29. Bullish momentum has weakened but is not yet bearish; the key question is whether another 40-/80-day peak forms before an F-category break below the 20-day FLD initiates the decline into the mid-September 80-day trough.
NASDAQ: A 20-week trough formed at the end of July, at least 20-week magnitude and potentially higher. The NASDAQ retains stronger near-term bullish potential than the S&P 500, with 30,239 still outstanding and a possible double peak preceding the eventual F-category decline into the 80-day trough.
Australian ASX: A
20-week trough formed around the US troughs, but the 20-day FLD has
produced unclear signals and the trough did not clearly form below it. A
40-day trough probably formed in the third week of August, although an
alternative remains. The ASX is likely approaching its second 80-day peak, but its FLD is unusually unreliable (23% interaction rating), while failure to reach 9,237 provides a stronger bearish warning than in the US markets.
Gold: A 20-week trough formed in the third week of July. Gold's bullish impetus may have been exhausted at its recent 80-day/possible 20-week peak; the confirmed F-category FLD break favors approximately $4,312 and a mid-September 80-day trough, although larger bullish cycles may remain ahead.
Bitcoin: Bitcoin has finally rallied from the potentially January 2026 18-month trough. A 20-week trough was identified in early July, although it could also represent a better placement of the 18-month trough. Bitcoin has finally produced the expected bullish strength; the 76,753 40-week FLD target has been exceeded, while the 20-day FLD will determine whether the 80-day trough occurred early or remains ahead.
Reference:
The $70k Gold Target Has a Date: Late 2050s | Branimir Vojcic
Inflation-adjusted monthly gold since 1970 shows three dominant long-term cycles: 55, 91, and 179 months. Multi-decade peaks in real gold form only when all three crest together.
That alignment has occurred three times since 1970, each marking a major historical top: January 1980 at $2,875, August 2011 at $2,699, and February 2026 at $5,492. The latest window ran from April 2025 to June 2026; real gold printed an all-time high 88% above the 1980 peak.
The
next synchronicity does not return until the second half of the 2050s.
Technicals still allow a much higher target at that date. Gold is rising
inside a century-long trend channel whose upper rail capped the 1930s
and 1980s highs. In Elliott terms it is subdividing through Cycle-degree
Wave 5. Standard Fibonacci relationships put Wave 5 in the
$18,000–$26,000 zone, which the upper channel reaches in the 2040s. A
classic commodity-style fifth-wave extension would take gold near
$70,000—the same upper-rail level the 55-, 91-, and 179-month cycles hit
when they next peak together in the late 2050s.
Wednesday, August 26, 2026
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: "Sanctions Could Disrupt Global Finance!"
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined "Operation Economic Outcast," a phased sanctions campaign targeting Iran’s cryptocurrency, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping sectors, while warning third countries to cut ties with Tehran or risk losing access to the US dollar.
Currency Collapse Indicator Model: US 2026 worse than Venezuela 2017. Ready for shock therapy?
» Scott Bessent looks to be intentionally crashing the $. I studied currency collapses and found that there were 7 indicators that preceded every major currency collapse in modern history. I then measured the US dollar against those 7. And as of right now, based on what Scott Bessent did last week, we have hit all 7 indicators. No country in modern history has met all 7 and avoided a currency collapse. None. And this doesn't look to be happening to us, it looks to be being done to us, by the people who swore an oath to prevent it. And they are getting rich while they do it. «
» Why would I want to blow up the global financial system? «
Bessent's recent doubling of bond buybacks and sanctions have been cited as potential warning signs, alongside indicators such as high debt-to-GDP, declining reserves, and political interference, with charts comparing the US to historical cases.
"Let them eat white bread!"
The Reign of the Orange Ape—certainly one for the history books.
Reactions split between alarm over a potential dollar squeeze—fueled by China's reduced Treasury holdings and increased gold purchases—and pushback emphasizing the dollar’s unique reserve-currency status and the subjectivity of such models. Markets have reflected the debate, with a weaker dollar coinciding with gains in gold and Bitcoin as concerns persist over the official $40 trillion national debt.
debt is outrunning growth every single year.
Jerome Powell in February 2024, in a 60 Minutes interview
—and still not arrested... 'cause it's the land of the free.
in February 2026... and it should be clearer now.
Well, that official US national-debt number—$40 trillion—is a straight-up lie. The US government uses accounting rules that would get every CEO and entrepreneur arrested. Unfunded Social Security and Medicare promises over the next 75 years: more than $400 trillion. None of it is on the government's headline balance sheet. A public company would be required to recognize future obligations. Washington simply doesn't. And when promises can't be paid honestly, there's always another way to settle the bill: Create the money. Inflate the currency. Make everyone else pay. The $40 trillion isn't the whole bill. It's the number this giga-corrupt criminal regime in Washington chooses to put on the books—and Americans and the rest of the world are expected to pretend the other $400+ trillion of this Ponzi scheme doesn't exist. Inflation is a tax. Seigniorage is fraud. Americans, make these criminals economic outcasts.
See also:
Karl W. Miller (August 26, 2026) - Global Diesel Breakdown: Energy shock will move through fertilizer into food supply.
Michael Hudson (August 20, 2026) - Why Time Is on Iran, Russia and China's Side.
Michael Hudson (August 20, 2026) - Why Time Is on Iran, Russia and China's Side.
Saturday, August 22, 2026
Price Performance vs. Zodiac Signs, Lunar Phase & Mercury Retrograde
S&P 500 (SPX) performance by color-shaded Zodiac Signs (2016–2026),
New Moon, Full Moon and rosa-shaded Mercury Retrograde periods.
S&P 500 Strategy: Go long during bullish zodiac phases and short during bearish phases; hold through phase end with a 2% stop-loss (1% tighter stops improved results). Starting with $1,000, a 10 year walk-forward case study produced $5,410. The win rate exceeded RSI, Stochastic, and MFI, slightly outperforming Stochastic. Low-win-rate signs (e.g., Gemini at 39%) can be omitted.
Augmented version: Enter long only when Stochastic (14,1,3) ≤20 during a bullish phase; enter short only when ≥80 during a bearish phase; hold through the full phase. Python backtest: $18,571.79 over two years with a 66.67% win rate.
Using 10 years of S&P 500, Mercury retrograde periods frequently preceded major pivots, with post-retrograde directional flips.
Upcoming Events (dates and times for New York City):
Jul 29 (Wed), 2026 07:34 EDT — Full Moon (Buck Moon)
Aug 12 (Wed), 2026 12:11 EDT — New Moon
Aug 23 (Sun), 2026 00:19 EDT — enters Virgo (150 deg from 0 deg Aries = vernal equinox)
Aug 27 (Thu), 2026 19:18 EDT — Full Moon (Sturgeon Moon / Lunar Eclipse)
Sep 10 (Thu), 2026 21:12 EDT — New Moon
Sep 22 (Tue), 2026 16:05 EDT — enters Libra (180 deg) (Fall Equinox)
Sep 26 (Sat), 2026 05:49 EDT — Full Moon (Corn / Harvest Moon)
Oct 10 (Sat), 2026 08:51 EDT — New Moon
Oct 10 (Sat), 2026 08:51 EDT — New Moon
Oct 22 (Thu), 2026 23:00 EDT — enters Scorpio (210 deg)
Oct 24 (Sat), 2026 03:02 EDT — Mercury Retrograde Begins
Oct 25 (Sun), 2026 15:38 EDT — Full Moon (Hunter's Moon)
Nov 08 (Sun), 2026 23:02 EST — New Moon
Nov 08 (Sun), 2026 23:02 EST — New Moon
Nov 13 (Fri), 2026 11:01 EST — Mercury Direct Resumes
Nov 21 (Sat), 2026 16:00 EST — enters Sagittarius (240 deg)
Nov 24 (Tue), 2026 00:53 EST — Full Moon (Beaver Moon)
Dec 08 (Tue), 2026 15:49 EST — New Moon
Dec 08 (Tue), 2026 15:49 EST — New Moon
Dec 21 (Mon), 2026 10:50 EST — Capricorn (270 deg) (Winter Solstice)
Dec 23 (Wed), 2026 09:28 EST — Full Moon (Cold Moon)
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX; 2016–2026)
Bitcoin (BTCUSD; 2016–2026)
Reference:
Sunday, August 16, 2026
Gold Bull 2027-2032, Monetary Reset & EU Breakup | Martin Armstrong
Martin Armstrong correctly forecast the recent six-month correction in Gold and Silver, with Gold falling roughly 30% from $5,600 to $3,900 and Silver about 55% from $121 to $55. Both have since rebounded—Gold near $4,500 and Silver above $66—but Armstrong sees this as potentially only an oversold bounce.
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» Gold and Silver bull market from Q1 2027 into 2032. «
The EU risks breakup by around 2029. Europe's trajectory increasingly resembles the systems Eastern Europeans fled. Governments act solely in their own interest; free-speech and media constraints (illustrated during COVID and through pressure on journalists) demonstrate the pattern. Energy attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure are already creating shortages that force Russia toward imports and are expected to drive energy prices higher.
Tuesday, August 11, 2026
August 2026 Eclipses: Financial Markets & Monetary Regimes | Margo Amala
The August 2026 eclipse season is a potentially significant period for markets, monetary systems, geopolitical developments, and political leadership. The August 12 (Wed) total solar eclipse at 20° Leo centers sovereignty, executive authority, leadership, and public power. It belongs to Saros 126, historically associated with recessions, financial dislocations, geopolitical shocks, and leadership transitions. The August 28 (Fri) Pisces lunar eclipse completes the current Pisces series, marking the culmination of a decades-long Pisces cycle and a transition away from themes of uncertainty, ambiguity, and systemic fluidity.
The Leo–Pisces axis and Saros 126 repeatedly coincide with major political and financial turning points. In 1971, a Leo–Pisces eclipse sequence preceded the August 15 Nixon Shock, which ended dollar convertibility into gold and transformed the international monetary system. In 1980, the cycle coincided with Reagan's defeat of Carter and a major silver-market peak. In 1990, a Saros 126 eclipse occurred shortly before Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. In 1998, the Leo–Pisces transition coincided with the final phase of the dot-com boom. In 2008, Saros 126 preceded the Lehman Brothers collapse by approximately 45 days. Earlier monetary precedents include the 1836 Specie Circular, the 1893 Silver Purchase Act, and the 1931 sterling crisis preceding Britain's abandonment of the gold standard.
Leo-Pisces / Saros 126 Eclipses and Major Events, 1836 to 2026.
The Leo–Pisces axis and Saros 126 repeatedly coincide with major political and financial turning points. In 1971, a Leo–Pisces eclipse sequence preceded the August 15 Nixon Shock, which ended dollar convertibility into gold and transformed the international monetary system. In 1980, the cycle coincided with Reagan's defeat of Carter and a major silver-market peak. In 1990, a Saros 126 eclipse occurred shortly before Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. In 1998, the Leo–Pisces transition coincided with the final phase of the dot-com boom. In 2008, Saros 126 preceded the Lehman Brothers collapse by approximately 45 days. Earlier monetary precedents include the 1836 Specie Circular, the 1893 Silver Purchase Act, and the 1931 sterling crisis preceding Britain's abandonment of the gold standard.
Historical backtesting of Saros Series 126 and the 19-year Metonic cycle reveals a sharp decoupling between equity markets and underlying macroeconomic conditions:
► Recession Risks: Dating back to 1828, 75% of total eclipses in Saros Series 126 (8 of 12) preceded an economic recession within two months. This aligns with the Lunar Nodes shifting into the Aquarius-Leo axis—a movement historically correlated with business cycle troughs.
► Equity Trajectory: Following Metonic cycle eclipses, short-term equity performance is overwhelmingly bullish, boasting positive market returns 87.5% of the time at 1 month and 75% at 3 months. However, returns decay steadily to 50% at 6 months and 37.5% at 12 months, signaling a gradual market roll-off rather than an immediate crash.
The geopolitical expression is concentrated around sovereignty, resources, territorial control, and strategic chokepoints. Astrocartographic emphasis includes Greenland, associated with resources and energy; Spain, associated with immigration and political leadership; and the Strait of Hormuz, associated with Saturnian restriction, strategic blockage, and constrained movement. Mars in Cancer reinforces protectionism, defensive nationalism, territorial concerns, and emotionally charged public reactions.
The central historical analogy is 1971, when a Leo–Pisces eclipse sequence coincided with a fundamental monetary-regime change and a structural transformation in precious metals. August 2026 combines the same eclipse-axis symbolism with a Saros 126 recession signal, a 20-week precious-metals cycle low, heightened geopolitical constraints, and visible questions surrounding political and monetary authority.
The principal risk is therefore a synchronized transition across equities, precious metals, currencies, leadership structures, and geopolitical power rather than an isolated eclipse-driven market move.
Reference:
The August 12 eclipse hits Greenland and cuts directly through Reykjavík, Iceland. Look out for major moves in Arctic geopolitics, climate impact, rare earth mining.
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See also:
Gold Has Bottomed? What the Cycles Say | Branimir Vojcic
Shorter-term cycles indicate that Gold has formed an interim bottom.
However, the composite line of the two dominant long-term cycles (1,181 trading days or 4.687 years and 1,832 trading days or 7.27 years) suggests that Gold's correction will continue through late October 2028, followed by a rally extending into the end of November 2030.
nearing a local top, followed by an undercut/retest of the previous lows in the fall.
Wednesday, July 15, 2026
Solar Cycles and Inflation-Adjusted Gold Price Forecasting | Vladimir Belkin
Vladimir Belkin's latest study quantifies the relationship between solar activity and the inflation-adjusted price of Gold (1968–2025) within a Jevons–Chizhevsky analytical framework. By synchronizing real Gold prices with the ordinal structure of solar cycles—measured via sunspot (Wolf) numbers—it identifies a strong and statistically significant fit (R² = 0.9081, p = 0.0115), implying that approximately 90.8% of the variance in real Gold prices is explained by his solar-cycle model.
Rather than implying direct causation, the results point to a cyclical transmission mechanism in which solar rhythms embed and modulate underlying economic periodicities, notably Kitchin- and Juglar-type cycles, thereby acting as a structural driver of long-term commodity price behavior.
(1968–2025); superposed epoch analysis of 58 years of observations.
The study advances beyond descriptive correlation to a deterministic forecasting model. Each calendar year is mapped to its corresponding position within Solar Cycle 25, and forward price projections are derived using empirically observed year-to-year transition ratios embedded in the cycle structure.
Within this framework, 2026 (cycle year 7) implies a contraction in real Gold prices to approximately $2,536.35/oz (0.70 × $3,623.36), followed by 2027 (year 8) with a modest recovery to $2,587.08/oz (1.02 × prior year).This projected path is consistent with the transition from peak solar activity into the declining phase of the cycle, which historically coincides with reduced upside momentum, elevated volatility, or corrective dynamics in real Gold prices.
For the post-2025 horizon, the model therefore implies a nonlinear, wave-structured trajectory rather than a sustained directional trend: late-cycle topping behavior into the solar maximum, followed by cyclical deceleration into the late 2020s, and eventual reacceleration as the next solar minimum-to-maximum sequence unfolds.
These projections remain conditional on three factors: the accuracy of solar cycle forecasts, the stability of the regression relationship, and the interaction with concurrent macroeconomic cycles. Within those constraints, the framework offers a high-coherence, quantitatively grounded method for translating solar-cycle dynamics directly into forward estimates of inflation-adjusted Gold prices.
Reference:
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The
extension of Belkin’s inflation-adjusted Gold price forecast through 2032 applies
the same chaining methodology, using average ratios from column 5 in his table above and
starting from $3,623.36 in 2025. Solar Cycle 25 began in 2019–2020 (2020 = Year 1) and is expected to end around 2030–2031, with Cycle 26 beginning.
Inflation-adjusted Gold price forecast through 2032.
The resulting forecasts are 2025 at $3,623.36, 2026 at $2,536.35, 2027 at $2,587.08, 2028 at $2,664.69, 2029 at $3,011.10, 2030 at $3,462.77, 2031 at $2,735.59, and 2032 at $3,474.20.
Inflation-adjusted Gold price will likely peak around 2033-2034.
The method is unchanged, with 2026–2027 matching Belkin's paper exactly. 2031 is the Cycle 25 minimum, and 2032 begins Cycle 26 using the average Year 1–to–Year 12 ratio. All figures are real (inflation-adjusted) and reflect the typical decline into solar minimum followed by a rebound. This is a statistical historical correlation; Gold prices are also driven by other factors, and Belkin’s solar cycle timing carries an uncertainty of about ±1 year.
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