Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts

Monday, May 18, 2026

Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, NIFTY, Gold, Bitcoin | David Hickson

Global equity markets are diverging: US indices may have already formed an 18-month cycle trough, while others likely have not. Despite this, all markets are synchronously declining into an 80-day cycle trough expected into late May or early June. S&P 500 and NASDAQ show strong bullish signatures suggesting a possible completed 18-month trough, yet are now rolling into 80-day lows. ASX and DAX still point toward pending 18-month troughs, with ASX clearly bearish and DAX more neutral. Gold is bearish post-January peak, and Bitcoin is descending into a synchronized 80-day / 20-week trough.
 
S&P 500: A confirmed 20-week cycle trough occurred on March 30 (Mon), potentially aligning with an unconfirmed 18-month cycle trough. In Hurst cycle analysis, tracking shorter cycles allows to infer longer-cycle behavior. To maintain analytical clarity, this update sets aside longer-cycle markers to focus on the confirmed 20-week trough.

S&P 500 (daily candles), March to June 2026: Downside into an 80-day trough into late May remains the base case. 
Prior bullish excess suggests underlying strength, so declines may be muted, but a break below the 20-day FLD is still expected.  
[ Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of
each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts. ] 
 
On April 29, a 40-day cycle trough formed. Instead of breaking below the 20-day Future Line of Demarcation (FLD) to meet its downside target—as expected under normal conditions—price found support at the FLD. This resilience signals underlying bullishness, likely driven by a high-amplitude 20-week cycle or the larger 18-month cycle trough.

The next major milestone is an 80-day cycle trough projected for late May. Price is currently testing the 20-day FLD in what appears to be an F-category interaction, implying an imminent breakdown toward a downside target. Although recent bullish momentum could truncate this target, an 80-day trough rarely forms at the 20-day FLD level; thus, the base case remains a move lower.
Timing Metrics: 48 days have elapsed since the late-March trough. Given a nominal 80-day wavelength (historically 68 days, but recently averaging 60.5 days), this trough may arrive slightly early, narrowing the target window to late May. 
NASDAQ: Unlike the S&P 500, the NASDAQ's 18-month cycle trough lies ahead, highlighting broader long-term uncertainty. However, shorter cycles offer actionable clarity. Following a late-March trough, price crossed above the 20-day FLD and significantly exceeded its upside target, signaling intense bullish momentum.

NASDAQ (daily candles), April to June 2026: Stronger than the S&P, with prior momentum overwhelming
normal cycle behavior. Now rolling into an 80-day decline, likely shallow relative to typical cycle moves.
 
The 40-day trough likely formed early. Price failed to even retrace to the 20-day FLD during this phase—a classic indication of exceptional strength rather than analytical error. Price is now returning to the 20-day FLD for an F-category interaction. At 48 days post-trough, the NASDAQ is poised to decline into its 80-day cycle trough alongside the S&P 500. 
 
Australian ASX: The ASX anchors the global divergence thesis. Its 18-month cycle trough lies ahead, creating a structurally bearish backdrop. While the 20-week trough occurred slightly ahead of the US and boasts a highly reliable (74.4%) FLD interaction sequence, the index recently failed to reach its upside breakout target.

ASX (daily candles), April to June 2026: Structurally bearish into a pending 18-month trough. Failed upside targets
and expanding cycles confirm weakness. The 80-day trough is imminent or aligns into early June.
 
An unfulfilled bullish target is a vital diagnostic signal confirming underlying bearish pressure. Furthermore, a displaced nest of lows indicates expanding shorter cycles (delayed troughs), typical of a bearish environment.
Timing Metrics: 56 days have elapsed since the March trough. With recent cycle wavelengths averaging 57.8 days, the 80-day trough is imminent, though global synchronization could defer it to late May or early June.
German DAX: The DAX exhibits rigid, less fluid price action, but the principle of commonality allows for reliable cross-market tracking. A major trough formed on March 23, aligning with the ASX. Its 18-month trough remains ahead, supporting a long-term bearish framework.
 
DAX (daily candles), March to June 2026: Balanced and orderly. Moving into an 80-day trough,
likely slightly lagging the US, with no clear bearish distortion—expect moderate downside.

However, the DAX appears more neutral than the ASX; its FLD interactions have been clean and balanced, meeting targets with high reliability and no immediate bearish distortion. Following a recent F-category interaction, price is heading lower into an 80-day cycle trough, projected slightly behind the US timeline.

Indian NIFTY-50: The NIFTY remains analytically ambiguous, with the 40-week trough tracking to either February or early April. Shorter-cycle analysis offers some guidance, though low interaction quality (52.4% reliability rating) suggests analytical distortion or heavy interference from longer cycles.
 
NIFTY 50 (daily candles), April to June 2026: Uncertain structure and weak signal quality. Likely a short bounce
from a 40-day trough, then decline into a delayed 80-day trough in June. Key: reclaiming the 20-day FLD.
 
A 40-day trough likely just formed; expect a brief rally toward the 20-day FLD before a deeper decline into an 80-day trough in June—lagging global markets by roughly two weeks. A failure to reclaim the 20-day FLD will signal that this downward leg is already underway.
 
Gold (XAUUSD): Gold remains intermediate-term bearish. While a 40-week trough formed on March 23, a prominent late-January peak continues to exert downward pressure.
 
Gold (daily candles), February to June 2026: Bearish phase intact. Repeated failure of bullish targets
confirms pressure. Now declining into an 80-day trough, potentially forming slightly early.
 
Recent price action confirms this underlying weakness: an FLD upside breakout met its target but lacked follow-through, subsequent rallies have faltered, and recent bullish targets were missed entirely. Following an F-category cross below the 20-day FLD, gold is moving toward an 80-day trough, likely arriving just ahead of late May. 
 
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Bitcoin closely tracks its composite cycle model. After a bounce off the 40-day trough, price peaked precisely as modeled before reversing. It has since broken below the 20-day FLD in an F-category event, hitting its initial downside target.
 
Bitcoin (daily candles), February to June 2026: Tracking its cycle model. Already in decline
toward a combined 80-day / 20-week trough. Further downside likely before completion.
 
The market is now compressing into a synchronized 80-day and 20-week cycle trough. Because of the larger 20-week cycle's magnitude, this trough should run deeper than the prior 80-day low. Despite realized losses, further downside is expected before the cycle bottoms. 
 

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

The US Just Made Gold Its Number One Export | Gerry Nolan

America just made gold its number one export, and it’s pouring straight into China via Switzerland. For the last five months running, US gold shipments have topped everything else the country sells abroad. In March alone, they were 1.7 times larger than oil, twice pharma, and two and a half times aircraft engines.
 
» How exactly does this serve the United States? «
  
Most of it doesn’t even stay in America: it sails through Switzerland’s refineries and lands in Beijing’s vaults. This is highly unusual. The US doesn’t ship its oldest store of value to its biggest rival at record pace under normal conditions. Geopolitical tension, inflation hedging, and quiet signals that gold is becoming a settlement mechanism in US–China trade have flipped the script.

America is quietly surrendering the one asset that still commands respect when the dollar starts to wobble. It’s the visible symptom of a deeper reckoning: Beijing is no longer content to hold endless piles of US Treasuries or accept dollars for its oil and goods. With every sanctioned barrel and every BRICS handshake, China is forcing real settlement in the one currency that can’t be printed into oblivion. The empire ships bullion east while its navy steams around the Gulf, pretending it still runs the world. The numbers don’t lie, and neither does the direction of travel.

» Real money to the competition while the dollar-printing machine keeps spinning. «
 
So, tell how exactly does this serve the United States? It doesn’t. But it sure as hell serves China. The empire is literally melting down its patrimony and handing the real money to the competition while the increasingly worthless dollar-printing machine keeps spinning.

 

See also:

Monday, May 4, 2026

Markets Diverge as US Entered New Hurst 18-Month Cycle | David Hickson

Global stock markets are exhibiting a rare divergence where the US market is decoupling from international peers like the Australian ASX due to staggered major cycle troughs. The S&P 500 is emerging from an 18-month cycle trough (formed March 31), while the ASX and other global stock indices are still trending downward toward their equivalent troughs expected in July.

S&P 500 / NASDAQ: The outlook is predominantly bullish following the 18-month cycle trough. Price targets remain outstanding near 7,424, with the next minor softening expected during an 80-day cycle trough in late May.
 
 S&P 500 (daily candles), March to May 2026: 80-day cycle trough expected in late May.
 
Australian ASX: Bearish to neutral for the next two months. Expect a continued move downward or sideways as these markets seek an 18-month cycle trough positioned in late July 2026.
 
ASX (weekly candles), April 2025 to December 2026: 18-month cycle trough expected in late July 2026.
 
Gold: Cautiously bearish. While a 40-day trough has likely formed, providing a short-term bounce, the potential 9-year cycle peak in late January suggests that rallies may be limited by significant long-term down pressure.
 
 Gold (daily candles), February to June 2026: Potential 9-year cycle peak and long-term down pressure.
  
Bitcoin: Short-term bullish as price moves out of a 40-day trough toward a 20-week cycle peak. However, a broader correction is expected in early June as the market moves into a 20-week cycle trough.
 
 Bitcoin (daily candles), February to June 2026: 20-week cycle trough expected in early June.
 
 

Monday, March 23, 2026

Gold and Silver: Final Repricing Before Breakout | Dieter Lüscher

Dieter Lüscher of Premium Strategy Partners AG, one of Switzerland’s most recognized wealth managers, has issued a stark and timely warning on gold and silver. Known for managing ultra-high-net-worth portfolios and repeatedly ranked among the best in conservative risk strategies, Lüscher argues that the current price weakness is not what it appears. In his latest interview, he outlines a scenario that suggests the market may be approaching a turning point.
 
 

» In Gold the sell-off that started from 5,598 levels is correcting the last parabolic phase of the uptrend. Previous resistance at 4,550 levels becomes the new support. Long-term uptrend is intact. In the short-term we are seeing consolidation and a drop in volatility. A risk off environment in Global Markets can result in a correction in Gold given its liquidity and appreciation over the past couple of months. It can be used as a source of cash. « 
Lüscher’s core message is that the current weakness may be a structurally driven dislocation rather than a reflection of deteriorating fundamentals. If his assessment holds, the present environment could represent a transitional phase before stronger upward momentum resumes, potentially alongside a longer-term shift in global pricing influence.
  
The Quarter-End Dynamic
According to Lüscher, commercial banks and short-position holders continue to carry substantial exposure in the futures and options markets, with a significant expiry window just days away. The incentive structure is straightforward: downward pressure into expiry maximizes the likelihood that these options expire out of the money, allowing institutions to retain premium income. While this pattern has repeated for over a decade, Lüscher suggests the current setup may represent a late-stage iteration rather than a routine cycle.
 
The latest CFTC COT report details an increase of 3,779 gold short contracts by non-commercial traders (hedge funds), representing 377,900 ounces or approximately $1.55 billion in new downside exposure. This positioning coincided with a 72-hour gold price decline from $4,520 to $4,100. Total hedge fund short exposure currently stands at 56,092 contracts (5.61 million ounces), valued at $23 billion. Market structure remains heavily leveraged, with large speculators holding 215,961 long positions against 284,832 commercial short positions. This data suggests price volatility is driven by technical positioning and liquidity pressure rather than fundamental shifts.
A Potential Near-Term Bottom
Lüscher indicates that the market could be nearing a short-term bottom within days. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, he emphasizes that recent price action appears largely technical, driven more by derivatives positioning than by fundamental demand. Once the expiry window closes, he expects underlying demand dynamics to reassert themselves, potentially leading to a sharp reversal.

Shifting Pricing Power Toward Asia
Structural changes in global pricing mechanisms are also accelerating. India is moving toward pricing gold and silver ETFs based on domestic spot benchmarks rather than traditional London references, while China continues to promote yuan-denominated gold pricing in global markets. At the same time, inventory trends highlight divergence: Western exchange stocks have been declining, while Asian market dynamics are becoming increasingly influential.

»  Physical metal carries zero counterparty risk—exactly what investors and nations now demand. Wars
and exploding debt force massive new money printing that only gold and silver can truly absorb. «

 »  Expect a low in Gold at the end of April near $3,600-3,700. «
 

The Physical Market Tightens
On the supply side, Lüscher points to increasing fragmentation in silver distribution, with more output moving directly from mines to industrial users, bypassing traditional exchanges. This reflects a broader shift toward physical ownership, where counterparty risk is minimized—an increasingly important consideration amid rising geopolitical and financial uncertainty. Expanding fiscal deficits and monetary pressures further reinforce the role of precious metals as absorbers of excess liquidity.
 
Reference:

Thursday, February 19, 2026

2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa | Larry Williams

Crude Oil
Larry Williams identifies a setup for potential decline, noting that commercials (via Commitments of Traders (COT) Report red line in the chart below) have ceased aggressive buying and are exiting the market, with the line declining after marking a recent bottom. 
 

The public (green line) has become heavy buyers, signaling vulnerability. His proprietary valuation indicator (gold line, based on Crude-Gold Ratio) shows overvaluation, similar to prior pullbacks. As a conditional trader, he views this as a setup but requires trend change confirmation. 
 
 Downward setup via overvaluation and commercial selling; imminent cyclical
downturn, low in March/June needing trend confirmation for shorts.
 
Cyclically (weekly charts), a downturn is imminent, with a low expected in about three months (around March or June), historically good for longs. He advises watching for sell signals in energy markets, emphasizing cycles for bias and timing.

Natural Gas
Williams was seeking a short-term buy opportunity but canceled orders due to lack of upward movement today, anticipating a possible bounce. He stresses evaluating the COT report to determine if commercials or the public are buying, cross-referenced with open interest for directional insight. While acknowledging a seasonal pattern, he deems it less significant than current buyer/seller dynamics via the COT.

Gold
Williams admits a prior bad call, expecting a cyclical high aligned with Bitcoin's peak, but Gold held firm. Currently, commercials (COT red line) are unusually buying the decline at high levels, a position not typical and reminiscent of past buy opportunities. He notes recent shorts in Silver and Copper have shifted.
 
Gold bullish from commercial decline-buys and March cycles; 
Silver similar with rally soon, upside late Feb/March on trend change.
 
Cyclically, short-term (red) and longer-term (blue) cycles converge in March, establishing a substantive buy point without implying a drop to chart lows. This timeframe warrants bullish attention, pending trend change.

Silver
Williams observes that Silver exhibits strong similarities to Gold, historically regarded as the "poor man's gold" but now akin to the "expensive man's gold." It follows a comparable cyclical pattern, indicating the onset of a rally within the ensuing couple of weeks from the time of discussion. Aligning with his year-end forecast, he anticipated initial downward pressure, followed by an upward shift around late February or early March. He emphasizes restraint in entry, requiring confirmation of an upside trend change—such as a trend line breakout or moving average signal—within that timeframe to qualify the trade.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Disparity in Advance/Decline, and Why Dow is Stronger
Williams affirms a bull market persisting through 2025 into mid-2027, dismissing pessimists based on repeated past errors. The advance-decline line (net cumulative advances vs. declines) is at new highs while stocks are not—an anomaly he has rarely seen, historically followed by higher prices, providing a fundamental bullish rationale. 
 
 
Bull to mid-2027 via advance-decline highs; Dow stronger than

S&P on value focus, mid-March cyclical buy/rally.

Comparing charts below: Dow Jones futures show a higher low and greater strength than S&P E-minis, attributed to fewer "hot stocks" like the Magnificent Seven in the Dow, which suffered hits. 
 

The Dow better represents quality and value, with funds shifting there for protection over speculation. As a trader, Williams is long Dow contracts, not S&P, due to Dow's outperformance. 

Cocoa
Williams sees a buy setup, though not yet long, awaiting trend change. Commercials (top pane red line) are adding positions amid declining total open interest (black line)—indicating others exit, a rare bullish "bubble up." Valuation (gold line, Cocoa-Gold Ratio) shows undervaluation, contrasting prior overvalued tops. 
 
 
Rally from commercial "bubble up" buys and undervaluation; 
short-term immediate, major in June/July with trend entry patience.
 
Cyclically, short-term (red) suggests immediate rally start; longer-term (blue) aligns with short-term around June/July for ideal entry and bigger move.
 
See also:

Thursday, January 29, 2026

2026 Market Forecast: S&P 500, Crude, Notes, Gold, and Bitcoin | Bill Sarubbi

US Stock Market Outlook and Q1 Correction
The equity markets appear to be nearing a significant peak, with a forecasted correction for the S&P 500 expected to intensify during the first week of February. Despite this initial volatility, the year-end target for the S&P remains 10% to 12% higher than current levels around 6,950. 
 
In November, the 15-month midterm election cycle will be the primary rally driver. 
 
Sarubbi's market summary indicates a Q1 correction in the S&P, with the S&P expected to rise by 10%-12% in 2026. This will be followed by a trading range in Q2 and Q3, and a rally in Q4. November marks the beginning of the 15-month mid-term election year cycle. Oil is anticipated to rally, and foreign markets are projected to extend their outperformance.
 
Regarding the US stock market, there is a short-term cycle that runs into the last week of January, which expires just as a weak short-term cycle begins in the first week of February. February and March are likely to be weak. There will be a Q1 correction, likely starting in February, with Q2 and Q3 forming a trading range. Q4 in any year has been bullish, and the 15 months beginning with the mid-term elections have been one of the most bullish time intervals.
 
On the topic of bubbles, Sarubbi notes that they usually do not occur in years ending in a 6. Most crises have occurred in the autumn of years ending in 7 or 8. For instance, on August 15, 1971, Nixon closed the gold window. On March 31, 1980, Carter signed the Monetary Control Act, which enabled the Fed to monetize any paper. With few limits on what can be monetized, the Fed could theoretically inflate the currency to infinity. Consequently, there is no limit to price increases.
 
Bill Sarubbi expects the S&P 500 in 2026 to unfold in three phases: a weak first quarter, a sideways trading range through the spring and summer, and a powerful rally in the fourth quarter driven by the historically potent 15-month midterm election cycle.
 
2026 Composite Cycle for the S&P 500.
 
Sarubbi's "Composite Cycle for the S&P 500 in 2026" begins at a high point in January 2026, followed by a general downward trend with minor oscillations through February and March. It experiences a modest recovery in April, and further undulations downward through late June. After a recovery into late-August early-September, a more pronounced decline occurs into a late-September early-October low of the year. From this trough, the US stock market ascends sharply through November and December 2026, continuing its upward trajectory into January 2027.
 

Above is the DJIA's expected return of all years ending in 6 that have also been 2 years past an election since 1885. Keep in mind that the 15-month period that follows the mid-term elections has been one of the most bullish time intervals. It appears logical to expect a Q1 correction followed by a trading range in the first 3 quarters of 2026.  
 
Long-Term Cycles and Inflationary Pressures
Current economic conditions mirror the 54-year cycle last seen in 1972, characterized by persistent price inflation, social unrest, and rising interest rates. This environment of "excess liquidity" is evidenced by record-breaking prices for collectibles and comic books. Furthermore, the removal of the gold window in 1971 and subsequent monetary acts have removed traditional limits on currency monetization, explaining gold’s ascent toward the $5,000 mark.

Sector Rotation and Technology Moderation
A primary theme for 2026 is the transition of leadership away from the "Magnificent Seven" and toward undervalued sectors. While technology will remain relevant, leadership is shifting to names like Intel and Micron rather than the overextended market leaders. 
 

Capital is expected to flow into healthcare, base materials, and emerging markets, the latter of which are breaking a 15-year relative downtrend against US equities.

Bullish Outlook for Energy and Oil
Oil presents a compelling "witches' brew" of bullish indicators: strong technical support between $50 and $55, extreme bearish sentiment, and favorable seasonal cycles. 
 
 Monthly Crude Oil Cycle.

A rally is anticipated through June, with stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB) showing classic technical breakout patterns. This sector stands to benefit most from the rotation of funds out of high-priced mega-cap tech.

Fixed Income, Gold, and Bitcoin
Fixed income remains unattractive, with the 10-year note facing strong seasonal headwinds in March. 
 
10-Year Notes monthly histogram.
 

US Notes are at the start of one of the most bearish weeks in any year. Over the last 43 years, price has fallen 81% of the time from the 19th through the 25th. See the daily histogram of expected return for December above. 
 
Gold.

Gold has exceeded recent objectives but is entering a seasonally weak period through March, with a projected short-term top near February 20. The gold cycle has peaked and the gold price has given an unmistakable signal. First, the rate of change became unsustainable. Then, in only 2 days, price has retraced 50% of its move from the October low. 
 
 
The gold cycle has peaked and the gold price has given an unmistakable signal. First, the rate of change became unsustainable. Then, in only 2 days, price has retraced 50% of its move from the October low. It must fall to $4050 to retrace 38.2% of its entire 2025 move. The peak occurs on a day when a new Fed chairman has been announced. The new Fed chief has indicated that he will not continue to inflate the currency. The monthly cycle does not show a meaningful low until July.  
 
 Bitcoin.

Conversely, Bitcoin continues to adhere closely to its cyclical data, suggesting a potential rally toward the $110,000 to $115,000 range by April.

 

See also: 
Bill Sarubbi (b. 1949), writing under the pen name Bill Meridian, is an American financial strategist, author, and software developer who pioneered the integration of mundane astrology into institutional investment. After earning both a BS in Banking and an MBA in Corporate Finance from New York University in 1972, he launched a dual career on Wall Street while beginning his formal astrological studies under Charles A. Jayne, Jr., one of the leading astrologers of the last century. Their teacher-student relationship and friendship lasted until Jayne’s death in 1985. Sarubbi transformed the field in 1983 by designing AstroAnalyst, the first software to apply computer processing to financial astrology. His technical innovations—including efficiency tests and composite cycles—remain foundational to modern platforms such as Timing Solution. Parallel to his financial pursuits, he spent seven years in New York City training as a bioenergetic therapist under Dr. John Pierrakos. From 1990 to 2004, Sarubbi was based in Abu Dhabi (UAE), where he served as a Technology Fund Manager and Strategist for the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA). During his tenure at the sovereign wealth fund, he also sat on its Currency Hedging Committee. Throughout this period, he maintained his pen identity as "Bill Meridian," advising legendary trader Frankie Joe and authoring the mundane and stocks column for Dell Horoscope for 30 years. A certified expert in Uranian and Vibrational Astrology (Hamburg School), Sarubbi has authored several definitive texts, including 'Planetary Stock Trading' and 'The Predictive Power of Eclipse Paths.' Since 2000, he has operated Cycles Research Investments from Vienna, Austria, providing market advisory and fund management services that blend rigorous economic cycle analysis with astrological forecasting. A member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) since 1972, he currently serves as a member of its board of directors.