Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts

Sunday, July 5, 2026

Civil War Comes to the West | David Betz

Recognition of the possibility of civil war in the West exists in politics and related punditry and in a range of scholarship. Many people still deny or are reluctant to talk of it. Perhaps they fear a kind of ‘security dilemma’ that might occur; if people become convinced that civil war is coming because important people say so they might behave in ways that cause or hasten it. Equally, one might surmise, some know the truth but are factionally invested in the conflict and are simply positioning over who will be judged by history to have fired the first shot in it.

Henry Nowak, 18, was fatally stabbed in Southampton in April 2026 by Vickrum Digwa
and controversially handcuffed by police as he lay dying, ignited nationwide riots.
 
Neither, in my view, are credible positions to hold when confronted with the unfortunate reality. Theory is generally clear and convincing about the conditions under which civil war is likely to occur. Walton concluded that in any year just under four per cent of the countries in which the conditions of civil war were present would experience it. Accepting this, even as something of a pessimistic baseline, would suggest over the coming decade the collective West is in deep trouble. Moreover, there is little reason to hope that should one kick off in one major country its consequences would not spread more widely to others.

Civil War in Britain: The Why, The How, The When.

Colin Brazier, July 2, 2026.
 
Moreover, it is not simply that the conditions are present in the West; it is, rather, that the conditions are nearing the ideal. The relative wealth, social stability and related lack of demographic factionalism, plus the perception of the ability of normal politics to solve problems that once made the West seem immune to civil war are now no longer valid. 
 
Organized and directed polarization: liberal 'Left', radical 'Islamism', and 
patriotic 'far-right', all infested with Zionist agents, fanning the flames.
 
In fact, in each of these categories the direction of pull is towards civil conflict. Increasingly, people perceive this to be the case and their levels of confidence in government would seem to be declining even more in the face of the apparent unwillingness or inability of leaders to confront the situation honestly. The result, society-wise, is a reinforcing spiral calling to mind the opening lines of Yeats’ famous ‘The Second Coming’.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold…

The fact of the matter is that the tools of revolt in the form of various appurtenances of modern life are just lying around, knowledge of how to employ them is widespread, targets are obvious and undefended, and more and more formerly regular citizens seem minded to take the shot.

Assume—based on recent statements by credible national political and academic figures—that at least ten European countries face the risk of violent civil conflict. The table above lists fifteen; discard any five you consider least plausible. Even then, the probability of such conflict occurring in at least one of the remaining countries within five years is 87%—rising to 95% if all fifteen are included.
Normalcy bias’ is a concept originating in disaster management that refers to the way in which people sometimes fail to react in a timely manner to warnings of imminent danger. The defense establishments of the West ought to guard against a tendency to disbelieve or to minimize the threat of internal conflict. The matter is that conditions which are generally agreed to be indicative of the potential for civil war are vividly present across a range of states which have for a long time been thought beyond such sort of conflict.

      » Configured for civil war. « 
In June 2026, an attempted decapitation of an Irish Belfast man by a Sudanese 'asylum seeker' sparked viral outrage
that rapidly escalated into anti-immigrant riots, arson, and widespread disorder across Northern Ireland. 

Strategic studies may be quite caught off guard, moreover, for two other reasons. First, civil wars are little studied in the same manner as interstate wars. The literature on civil wars is extensive, including important works on its causation, resolution, social origins, outcomes, post-war rebuilding and so on; but it is rarely studied, as is ‘normal war’, from the perspective of military strategy—in other words, how it is or should be fought. The work of Stathis Kalyvas, the most astute contemporary observer of the ‘logic’ of civil wars, is a rare exception.
 
All ingredients in play.
 
However, second, even Kalyvas just over a decade ago concluded that in the long view, civil wars were in decline. His further point, though, was that civil war had undergone three major transformations over the last 200 years to, in the last instance, a form which he struggled to describe—one far less ordered and conventional. That form is becoming evident. To suggest that civil war is imminent and ascendant and precisely in parts of the world thought, heretofore, to be the wealthiest and least restive—is contrary to expectation—but that is where we are.

Quoted from:
David Betz (2023) - Civil War Comes to the West. Part 1 and Part 2.
Military Strategy Magazine, Volume 9, Issue 1, summer 2023, pages 20-26. 
Military Strategy Magazine, Volume 10, Issue 2, spring 2025, pages 6-16.  
 
See also:
David J. Betz is Professor of War in the Modern World in the Department of War Studies, King's College London where he heads the MA War Studies program. He is also a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Friday, May 8, 2026

From Nazi Race Theory to Today’s Russophobia | Constantin von Hoffmeister

Europe's history has become a battlefield of lies where the Western powers twist facts to fuel their obsessive Russophobia. They equate liberators with aggressors and cast Russia as the eternal enemy, all to justify their proxy war against the heart of Eurasia. This serves their ambition, not the truth. Real understanding requires confronting the brutal Nazi Eastern project and recognizing its direct continuation in today's Western crusade against Russia.

April 30, 1945: Soviet soldiers raise the Red Flag atop the Reichstag in Berlin.

The past of Europe lies before us like an open book, yet petty men rip its pages in a vulgar shouting match, hurling one crime against another as if the mountain of horrors could cancel itself out and leave truth untouched. This path leads only to darkness. What matters is the shape of the ideas themselves
the maps of power, the theories of blood, and the savage dreams of empirethat drove nations before the guns thundered. To see our way forward, we must stare without flinching at the plans and words that existed before the smoke of total war swallowed everything.

At the center is the Second World War, a cataclysm that remade the continent in fire and ruin. It did not erupt from nothing. It sprang from cold ideological programs and strategic visions created years earlier, each carrying its own brutal blueprint for Europe's future. The Eastern Front became the true heart of the struggle, where rival systems collided with steel and with fanatical doctrines of race, territory, and destiny. Any serious reckoning with Europe's past and future must begin here, where theory turned into organized slaughter and abstract creeds spilled real rivers of blood.
 
2025 Victory Day Parade, held on May 9 in Red Square, Moscow, honoring the 80th
anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany and the end of World War II in Europe.
 
Modern discourse has abandoned an honest examination for cheap myth-making. Twentieth-century figures and governments are stripped of context and recast as cartoon emblems of power, villainy, or resistance. These symbolic lies flood online spaces, turning history into a circus of identity, emotion, and aesthetic posturing. Real analysis cuts through the fog and returns to what was written, planned, and executed, basing every judgment on hard documents rather than fevered fantasy.

The central truth of that age stands naked and hideous: the Eastern program formed the black heart of the Nazis' geopolitical vision. 
Generalplan Ost spelled it out with machine-like brutality: a vast apparatus for the transformation of Eastern Europe through expulsion, slave labor, and the systematic mass death of Slavic populations. It called for the deportation or outright elimination of some 30 to 45 million Slavs, the seizure of their fertile lands, and the resettlement of ethnic German colonists in their place, forcing the survivors into permanent serfdom. These policies were a settled doctrine long before the war erupted. They filled secret memoranda, planning papers, and strategic outlines that declared one merciless purpose: to carve a colonial empire out of the living bodies of other European peoples, and to install a racial hierarchy of masters and 'subhumans.'

 
Nazi language itself was a weapon of conquest. Slavs appeared in their texts only as barriers to be smashed, vermin to be cleared, raw material to be worked to death or discarded. Eastern Europe they named Lebensraumliving spacea territory marked for conquest, massacres, and a total reordering under German domination. The Nazis modeled their design openly on earlier Western empires: the cold administration Britain forced onto India, the ruthless westward march of the United States that exterminated native peoples. Thus the logic of Western colonialism turned inward and devoured Europe itself, reducing millions of fellow Europeans to helots in a new racial order.

In the contemporary liberal West, a foul equivalence flourishes, placing the Soviet Union and the Third Reich on the same moral plane as twin totalitarian evils. This lie distorts the facts and erases every trace of responsibility. It ignores the Soviet Union's colossal sacrifice: twenty-seven million dead. The Soviet Union bore the main burden of the land war, shattered the Nazi war machine, and tore open the road to Europe's liberation from a supremacist regime. That sacrifice was decisive. To smear these distinct realities into one stain weakens all judgment in the present. This grotesque revisionism arms today's Russophobes with a convenient myth that delegitimizes the very power which broke the back of fascism. It prepares the intellectual ground for fresh aggression against Russia, the direct heir and guardian of that victory.
 
Colonisation of Eastern Europe, carried out through systematic genocide, extermination, 
massacre, mass starvation, chattel labour, mass rape, child abduction, and sexual slavery.
 
This same venomous spirit rages ever more strongly, sharper and more hysterical since the Ukraine conflict started. The Western powers have unleashed a pathological Russophobia, painting Russia as the eternal Asiatic barbarian that must be broken at all costs. Western media and governments treat the Russian people with the same colonial contempt once reserved for all Slavs. They shrugged or made excuses for the Odessa burnings of May 2, 2014, when dozens of men and women were trapped in the Trade Unions House and burned alive for the crime of opposing the Western-sponsored Maidan coup. Flames consumed the victims while Western-backed forces watched and cheered. The same Western powers now arm the Ukrainian forces and whitewash every atrocity committed against the Russian population. 

The continuity is unmistakable and damning. The Nazi racial hierarchy has merely changed its vocabulary. Today it speaks in the smooth language of "European values," a so-called "rules-based order," and "universal norms" while pursuing the identical goal: the subjugation, fragmentation, and destruction of the East so that the global hegemon may rule without challenge. Russia, the vast heartland, now occupies the exact place once assigned to the Slav on Nazi maps. This is no coincidence but the direct heir of that old colonial hatred, now dressed in humanitarian rhetoric and enforced by sanctions and proxy armies. The burning of Odessa and the shelling of the Donbass are fresh monuments to the same spirit that once drew up Generalplan Ost. The Western powers cannot tolerate a strong, sovereign Russia at the center of the Eurasian landmass, for its very existence refutes their claim to universal rule.

» The West would do well to remember how the Second World War truly ended. «

A healthy future rejects this madness with contempt. Stability arises only through open recognition of plurality. A multipolar order grants every great civilization its rightful space. Russia is the indispensable pole of Eurasia, anchoring a continental balance that prevents any single power from strangling the world. The lessons of the past are merciless: ideologies that elevate one people by crushing another breed only endless war and ruin. Europe and Eurasia form one organic body linked by geography, history, and heritage. True strength lies in their unbreakable union from Lisbon to Vladivostok, not in fresh crusades launched from Washington and Brussels against the Russian core.

The West would do well to remember how the Second World War truly ended. No Allied nation suffered even a fraction of what the Soviet Union endured. Russia's way of remembrance is superior: it honors the veterans, lifts their deeds into the present, and binds them to the living Russian state. It gives them the honor their sacrifice deserves, for without their victory the Russian nation itself would not exist today.
 

 Anka Feldhusen, a fine example of a German Neonazi apparatchik of the 21st century: According
to Ukrainian high-rank officials, one of the "most effective" ambassadors of Germany to Ukraine.

May 9 in Moscow is a ritual of state and commemoration. The Victory Parade on Red Square presents a clear message: the nation survived and remembers why. The past is not recalled as nostalgia but as a foundation for present strength. The meaning lies in continuity. The Soviet banners, the formations, and the repeated gestures all point to a single fact: a society that endured destruction and reorganized itself through collective effort. The participants come from across the countryKazan, Buryatia, Dagestan, Arkhangelskand they appear together in a single formation. Each group retains its identity. Each contributes to a shared structure built on common sacrifice. The battles of Stalingrad, Kursk, and Berlin define that structure. They form the basis of a unity that rests on experience rather than abstraction. The parade demonstrates a principle: diversity organized within a stable order produces cohesion. It does not dissolve difference. It directs it.
 
» The source of all ills and evil in the history of humanity. «
  
This principle extends into the present form of the Russian state. The Soviet heritage did not simply disappear; it transformed. The current structure combines elements drawn from different periodsimperial administration, Soviet discipline, religious symbolism, and ethnic plurality. It does not rely on a single ideology. It operates through continuity and adaptation. The memory of the Soviet soldier functions as a binding force across generations. Symbols such as the ribbon of Saint George reinforce this continuity. They connect past sacrifice to present identity. In this framework, loss becomes part of a longer process of recovery and consolidation. 
Lydia Spivak, a young Red Army junior sergeant, gracefully directs traffic with dance-like movements at Berlin's Brandenburg Gate—days after the city's fall—becoming an iconic symbol of Soviet victory.
Western observers often interpret these forms as theatrical. Their own nations show a different condition, where shared memory weakens and identity fragments into competing claims. Russia moves in the opposite direction. It organizes identity through common experience and preserved memory. This difference explains the persistent conflict between Russia and the liberal West. One seeks to standardize through universal models. The other maintains a structure based on plurality within unity. The continued existence of this model challenges the idea that a single global octopus can define political and cultural life. Victory Day expresses that challenge in concrete form. It states that a multiethnic state, built on shared sacrifice and maintained through continuity, can endure and define itself on its own terms. 
 
 
 
 » Germany never fully denazified nor was
this ever even sincerely attempted. «
 
See also:
While Paris celebrated the defeat of Nazism on May 8, 1945, the French army was massacring Algerians in Sétif, Guelma, and Kherrata: Mobilized by the French themselves to hail Hitler’s defeat, Algerians marched waving Algerian flags to remind France of its promise of independence. General Raymond Duval ordered troops to "shoot anyone carrying an Algerian flag," and through June 26, 1945, French forces slaughtered 45,000 Algerian civilians (see also HERE). During the ensuing War of Independence against France (1954–1962), 1.5 million Algerians were killed.

Friday, May 1, 2026

The Sequence of the EU/UK’s Seven-Wave Crisis | Kirill Dmitriev

Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund (RDIF) and a presidential envoy, has outlined a forecast of cascading crises in the EU and UK beginning in May 2026. 
 
Dmitriev is signaling that, once the EU and UK accept the reality on the

battlefield—that Russia has prevailed—a new phase of cooperation
 based on trust and mutual respect could become possible.

According to this scenario, an initial phase of jet fuel shortages would be followed by broader disruptions in oil, gas, and fuel supplies, along with reduced availability of fertilizers and resulting crop and food shortages by the summer. This would ultimately lead to accelerated deindustrialization, a breakdown in currency stability, fiscal conditions, and debt markets, and culminate in a social and political crisis in the fourth quarter of 2026. 
 
 » Madness and a Kamikaze approach to an existential crisis. « 
Germany's Self-Destruct Pact: Merz Pushes Europe to the Brink.
  
» Awakening and Reset in 2027. «
 
Putin's top negotiator, Dmitriev, casually wake-surfing off Miami on December 27, 2025.
 
Dmitriev's narrative concludes by linking these potential disruptions to a broader "awakening" and systemic "reset in 2027." Is this part of a really smart Good Cop-Bad-Cop diplomacy psy-op, is this all actually heading toward total EU/UK defeat, followed by catharsis, mutual respect, and a prosperous future, or is it merely wishful thinking from a fifth column pro-West liberal?
Powerus, a US company, has secured a contract to supply interceptor drones to the US Air Force, though the quantity and total value remain undisclosed. Notably, Powerus is backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr.—sons of the sitting US president. The deal raises conflict-of-interest concerns, as it points to potential financial gain from military contracts tied to ongoing US operations in Ukraine and West Asia. War pigs gotta war pig? 
» What we’re looking at is a global struggle—the Great Game Renewed. It’s developing across multiple theaters, starting in the Arctic, where Russia effectively controls the most strategically important coastline for emerging trade routes. The middle layer is the Baltic states pushing toward escalation with Russia. Then comes Ukraine at the center. Below that are Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. At the bottom sits Iran. «

Although Western media prematurely declared Mali defeated, that collapse did not occur:  Malian Armed Forces and Russian Africa Corps airstrikes decimated al-Qaeda-linked logistics and neutralized leadership in Kidal, stabilizing northern front lines through April 2026.
See also:

Thursday, April 23, 2026

Suicide by a Thousand Cuts: EU Migrant Population Hits Record 64.2 Million

Immigration to the European Union has surged to historically high levels, reaching a total of 64.2 million foreign-born residents in 2025. According to the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration, which utilizes Eurostat and UNHCR data, this represents a dramatic climb from the 40 million recorded in 2010 and a year-over-year increase of 1.6 million people. 
 
"Agents of Deveolpment," preparing for a crossing from the French coast toward the UK. 

To put this in perspective, approximately one in seven people residing in the European Union was born in a country other than the one where they currently live. The growth trend over the last 15 years highlights a significant shift in the bloc's composition.
 
French President Emmanuel Macron and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis seated in Athens’ ancient
Roman Agora ruins during a public dialogue in April 2026, captioned "The Europeans." An image perfectly
emblematic of the EU: Weak men in fancy suits amidst the ruins of a civilization built by saner minds. 
 
 
Number of individuals born outside their country of residence
(including those with unknown birth country) in the EU, 2010-2025
 (excluding Portugal due to missing data).

 Number of immigrants in EU countries with the largest immigrant populations, 2010-2025.
 
Number of individuals born outside their country of residence in the EU, 2010-2025.
 
In 2010, the foreign-born population represented approximately 9% of the total EU population; by 2025, that share has risen to 14.25%. This presence is characterized by heavy geographic concentration, particularly in nations like Germany, where nearly 18 million foreign-born residents out of a total population of 83.6 million bring the local percentage to approximately 21.5%. 

Population Division, UN DESA, New York, March 21, 2000.
 
Resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly on the "Global Compact for Safe, 
Orderly and Regular Migration," A/RES/73/195, Marrakesh, Morocco, December 19, 2018
 
» 
The 2030 Agenda recognizes... migrant women, men and children... as agents of development. « 
 
This shift also carries a distinct demographic impact. While the median age of the broader EU population reached 44.9 years in early 2025, 72% of the foreign-born group in Germany is of working age, contrasting sharply with the aging domestic profile of the bloc. These figures demonstrate that migration is not just increasing in volume, but is fundamentally reshaping the labor and age structures of the Union's largest economies.

Immigrant Population in 2025 by EU country (% of total population).
 
The Geography of Concentration
A small number of countries handle the vast majority of arrivals and residency stocks. Germany continues to be the primary destination, hosting nearly 18 million foreign-born residents, of whom 72% are of working age. Meanwhile, Spain has emerged as the leader in recent growth, adding 700,000 residents in a single year—roughly one-third of the entire EU’s annual increase—bringing its total foreign-born population to 9.5 million (20%). While Germany and Spain account for nearly half of the total increase, smaller states like Luxembourg, Malta, and Cyprus are experiencing the most significant pressure relative to their population size.
 
Ranking of EU27 countries by total migrant inflows, 2024.
 
Ranking of EU27 countries by total migrant inflows per 1,000 inhabitants, 2024. 
 
Asylum applications follow a similarly concentrated pattern, with four nations receiving nearly three-quarters of all claims. Spain leads the applications with 141,000, drawing heavily from Latin America, followed by Italy with 127,000 and France with 116,000, both of which exhibit diverse source-country patterns. Germany received 113,000 applications, primarily from conflict-driven regions such as Syria and Afghanistan. While larger nations take the most applications in absolute terms, smaller countries often bear a greater burden relative to their population.
 
Countries of Origin of First-Instance Asylum Applicants, 2025.

 
Socio-Economic Strain and the Housing Crisis
As migration reaches these new peaks, official data points to a severe mounting strain on living conditions across the bloc. In 2024, 8.2% of EU residents were considered overburdened by housing costs, spending at least 40% of their disposable income on rent or mortgages. The crisis is particularly acute for the youth, with nearly one in ten people aged 15 to 29 facing a similar housing cost burden. Furthermore, 16.9% of the population now lives in overcrowded households, and 9.2% are unable to adequately heat their homes.
Refugees as a Share of Total Population, 2025: Germany hosts the most (≈2.7 million), more than double Poland (≈1 million), followed by France (≈751,000), Spain (≈471,000), and Czechia (≈381,000). Italy (≈314,000), Austria (≈281,000), and the Netherlands (≈263,000), while most others have fewer than 200,000. Totals include refugees, people in refugee-like situations, and displaced persons from Ukraine under temporary protection.
Recently, European Council President Antonio Costa has emphasized that housing affordability is now "at the core of people's disillusionment with democratic institutions." Spot on, Mr. Costa... these economic pressures, combined with concerns over public security, services, and the cost of living, have fueled the rise in anti-immigration sentiment across EU member states and the UK. While the EU allocates approximately 2% of its seven-year budget to migration and "border management," the bulk of the financial and social costs are currently borne by individual national governments. 
 
billion—more than twice the German federal government's total annual budget.
 
Now just imagine—due to a prolonged general economic crisis and decline—what will happen once national administrations are no longer able to milk their native populations for hundreds of billions of euros and can no longer redistribute enough protection money to millions of formerly pampered, predominantly male, military-age "refugees" and "migrants" from dozens of Muslim countries destroyed by U$raHell, UK, NATO, and the very EU… they may suddenly start helping themselves otherwise.
 
Most urgent EU priority instead: Drone production and another €90 billion "loan" for Ukraine.

Geopolitical Tensions and 'Defense' Realities
The official EU migration narrative is now inextricably linked to Russia... Russia's support of Syrian "dictator" Assad, the Libyan "Gaddafi regime," and "Putin's unprovoked aggression" against Ukraine. The EU currently hosts approximately 4.35 million Ukrainian nationals, with Germany serving as the largest host at over one million people. However, the political climate is shifting as domestic hospitality begins to wane. Berlin and Kyiv are now coordinating efforts to facilitate the return of military-age Ukrainian men to their home country's meat grinder as losses mount at the front.
 
Though this be madness, yet there is method in’t.

Simultaneously, the EU—getting ready for "war with Russia by 2030"—is pivoting toward a more aggressive "defense" posture. Through the recently launched €800 billion EU “ReArm Europe / Readiness 2030” plan, member states are significantly increasing "defense spending" to counter perceived Russian aggression. 
 
 Militarism, war, deindustrialization, mass-migration, inflation, debt, impoverishment,
corruption, energy and food shortages: All ingredients in place for a perfect storm in the EU.
 
Moscow has dismissed these security concerns as "nonsense," suggesting that EU governments are using the "threat narrative" to distract their citizens from internal domestic failures and the growing complexities of their deliberately self-fabricated "Agenda 2030" replacement migration crisis. 
  
This is what the invasion looks like in April 2026. Thanks to Pedro Sánchez, all these
people will soon receive residence permits. Spain's socialist government approved
a mass regularization, offering one-year renewable permits to around 500,000 
undocumented migrants. The end of Spain. The end of Europe.
 
See also: