Showing posts with label Hegemony. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hegemony. Show all posts

Saturday, February 1, 2025

In 2025 Cuba May Just Collapse Like Syria │ Mikhail Zvinchuk

Since the 1959 revolution, Cuba has relied on foreign aid. Right now, people appreciate help from other countries, but they don’t want to work. They are unwilling to take action. We are talking about a new Cuba—one that is lazy and has no interest in developing itself.

 » It looks like Gaza. «

To illustrate, Cuba now imports almost everything, even sugar. In the last century, Cuba was a major exporter of sugar, but now it depends on imports.
The country is unable to maintain or rebuild its electricity system on its own. In 2021, they began a foolish economic reform that failed. Economic conditions are dire. Russia and other countries provide some aid, but the main problem is Cuba itself. The situation there reminds me of Syria right before the fall of Bashar al-Assad
 
It is clear that communism in Cuba is not working. When you go to a shop, the shelves are empty. You can find things on the black market for dollars, but in regular shops, there is nothing. While Cuba may have a relatively low crime rate and some degree of safety, it is a poor country, struggling with unreliable electricity and lacking opportunities for social mobility. As a result, many Cubans are still fleeing to Florida. In fact, the flow of migrants to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past decade. If the situation continues, Cuba will eventually end up like Puerto Rico.
 
» Nothing but disgust for the offspring of the Guevara and Castro families. «

If you stand on a high building and look across Havana or any of the major cities, you’ll see decaying, dilapidated buildings falling apart. It’s an insane sight. It looks like Gaza. People often blame the US blockade for this, but at some point, leadership has to come into question. How much of this is due to the blockade, and how much is a result of failed leadership? The problem is poor leadership—they lack the education and skills to properly govern the country.

The country is falling deeper into crisis, and no one seems to know how to fix it. I’ve spoken with many Russian diplomats, and Russia provides humanitarian aid, including oil and gas. However, even our diplomats can’t fill their tanks because the Cuban people expect everything to be handed to them without any effort in return. 
 
» The economic situation will likely cause Cuba to collapse on its own. «
 
If the country were to open its borders and allow for a more open market, there might be hope for improvement. Currently, only the hotel and tourism sectors are allowed some access. But if the country lifted restrictions on the private sector and started working with other countries, there could be a chance to improve the situation. Right now, however, it's a failed social state. The country is clearly collapsing. 
 
Yet, the ruling party elite still posts meme tweets about Trump being a fascist and display LGBT flags at their hotels in Havana. The priorities are completely misaligned. You know who is the main LGBT activist in Cuba? It’s Mariela Castro Espín, the daughter of Raúl Castro. When I spoke to average Cubans, they expressed nothing but disgust and disdain for the offspring of the Guevara and Castro families. They had nothing good to say about them.

Latter-day mission: babble on about feminism, LGBTQ+ rights, trans identities, and—of course—revolution.
 
Cuba may fall in 2025. If the US wanted to take Cuba—liberate it from the communist regime, as they might call it—they could do it easily, and quickly. The Cuban people are not like their ancestors from the 1950s—they have changed a lot. It would take significant effort to rebuild the nation.
 
Russian Navy about to lose the haven of another friendly power.
 
Cuba was the last American colony, and now it could become a new American colony. However, Trump is currently focusing on Greenland and Panama, and hasn’t given Cuba much attention. The economic situation, though, will likely cause Cuba to collapse on its own, regardless of Trump’s decisions. Once the humanitarian crisis deepens, the US might intervene as a savior.
 
Quoted from:

Monday, December 23, 2024

The Panama Canal, Greenland, and Trump 2.0 | Andrew Korybko

Trump threatened that the US might retake control of the Panama Canal if it remains under indirect partial Chinese management and continues to charge the US what he described as exorbitant rates for passage. He then posted shortly after that, "For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity." Both are his for the taking if he really wants them, but it’s unclear whether he does.

 » Available for Trump to claim if he truly desires. «

As regards the Panama Canal, Trump's immediate imperative appears to be rolling back Chinese influence over this crucial waterway, which he seemingly fears could be leveraged by the People's Republic to cut the US off from transoceanic shipment in the event of a crisis over Taiwan. He might also want to coerce Panama into shutting down illegal migrant routes to the US via the Darien Gap. Both are sensible from the perspective of his MAGA worldview that aims to restore the US' unipolar hegemony.

His objectives in Greenland might be similar in the sense of ensuring that Chinese companies don't obtain a monopoly over that island's critical mineral reserves as well as preventing the construction of "dual-use infrastructure" that might one day give Beijing military and intelligence advantages. Direct control over sparsely populated and practically undefended Greenland, which formally remains part of Denmark, is seen as the most effective means to that end.
 
  » A monopoly over the island's critical mineral reserves. «

Trump's threat to the Panama Canal and his claim to Greenland are also likely meant to appeal to his supporters' expectations that he'll "Make America Great Again" in a visible geopolitical way. Even if he doesn't impose formal US control over them, expelling Chinese influence from both and replacing it with US economic influence could be enough to satiate them. This could also solidify his legacy and lay the basis for his successor, who'd probably be
JD Vance, to establish formal control sometime later.
 

Both are Trump's for the taking if he really wants them since neither could meaningfully oppose the US military if he authorizes an invasion. They'd be low-cost operations with high economic and political returns even though they'd occur at the expense of the US' international reputation. The global community would predictably decry them as imperialist invasions, but nobody would stand in the US' way nor sanction it afterwards. The most that might follow is harsh rhetoric, nothing more substantive.
 
Quoted from:

See also:

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Israel’s Reckless Pager Operation: Who Can We Trust And Rely On? | Shen Yi

I've been studying international relations and politics for decades, and I'm shocked by this pager attack in Lebanon. This is not something a normal country would do; it's way past the moral red line of international norms. What we're looking at is a commercial electronic device, the pager, being modified into a military-style mini-grenade. Even though the operation targets Hezbollah members, the action is equivalent to igniting several cluster bombs in a market populated with Hezbollah members, their families, and other innocent civilians.

 » This is truly evil and shocking ... they've proven themselves willing to do outrageous, immoral things. «
 
The psychological effect of this operation is similar to the earliest Batman movie, where the Joker randomly poisoned hygiene products to create chaos in Gotham City. This isn't even using the pager to collect intel and destroy evidence. This can be considered a mass terrorist operation. It's like putting poison in bottled water and exporting it to your enemy city, expecting enemy soldiers to drink it, and disregarding innocent victims, oh well, sucks to be them.

 » Children lost their eyes while playing in the street. Mothers lost their limbs while shopping in a mall.
Doctors suffered severe injuries while driving to a hospital. This is horror and cruelty beyond imagination
. «
China representative to the UN.

Assuming Israel's involvement, considering their current strike against Lebanon, there are two possibilities for this mass bombing. Either the bomb was installed during manufacturing in Taiwan, possibly through a joint operation between Taiwan and Israel, or the middleman modified the device. In China, Jewish people are considered the smartest and most cunning of all the peoples on this planet. Modifying this device into a bomb and activating it in mass volume is truly evil and shocking. However, I also consider this operation stupid and reckless, ignoring consequences and hiding behind the United States. The operation against Iran's nuclear enrichment facility might be within the rules of engagement, but this pager bombing is unacceptable. The United States swapped out hospital devices before the operation, showing awareness. The United States, Israel, and Taiwan governments remain quiet. 
 
How can we trust products from these regions in the future? This has impacted global supply chain trust. China now understands why the US considers Huawei cell phones and network devices national security issues - because they think China is as evil and immoral as they are. The problem isn't technical feasibility; today's technology makes it easy. The problem is who crosses the moral red line. Israel, backed by the United States, has shown willingness to cross it. This is a dangerous psychological barrier. 
 

How will China assure consumers of safety when buying US and Israel products? Shouldn't these products be inspected for tampering, with the US and Israel paying additional costs? This isn't unfair competition; they've proven themselves willing to do outrageous, immoral things. China can't wait until 5,000 Apple cell phones blow up to set up security. Considering the US views China as its biggest rival, China needs its own products, supply chain, communication, and banking systems. It's no longer about Chinese or US-made CPU preferences; it's about foreign entities willing to weaponize devices against you. It's not about faster cell phones; it's about safety. Maybe the quality of some Chinese products still lag behind, but we can tell the world we won't make products that explode intentionally. That should be a new standard. 
 
This chain of events shows that peace, safety, stability, and prosperity - elements of a great society - are rare globally. Many Chinese took these for granted. I believe China should lead promoting peace, growth, and stability around the world.