Showing posts with label 250 Year Empire Life Cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 250 Year Empire Life Cycle. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 4, 2026

2026 Global Favorability Flips: China Overtakes US | Pew Research Center

The Pew Research Center's "Spring 2026 Global Attitudes Survey" marks a clear inflection point. As stated in its July 15 report: "Views of China have improved in recent years while opinions of the US have worsened, to the point where China is now seen more positively than the US in most of 36 countries surveyed." Across the 20 countries tracked every year since 2023, the median favorable rating of the United States has fallen to 36 percent while China's has risen to 46 percent. The survey of 42,151 adults, conducted February 8–May 13, 2026, shows the reversal is no longer marginal.
 
2026 Updated Scatter Plot – Key Changes from Spring 2025: The Spring 2026 data shows a clear structural shift: The Top-Left "pro-US / negative China" cluster has shrunk. It is now mainly limited to Israel (still very high US favorability), Japan (China only 11%), South Korea, India, and Poland. The Bottom-Right "pro-China / negative or lower US" cluster has expanded dramatically and is now the dominant zone. Canada (China 44% / US 33%) and Mexico (China 59% / US 40%) have fully crossed into this quadrant. Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan (near 90% China), and many middle-income countries sit firmly here. A large group of European and other high-income countries have drifted downward (lower US) and rightward (higher China), filling the lower-middle and bottom-right areas. The old US-centric top-left concentration has eroded, while the pro-China bottom-right has become the new gravitational center of global public opinion.
A scatter of national favorability ratings now places the large majority of countries in the zone where China outranks the United States. The extremes are stark. In Pakistan, 90 percent hold a favorable view of China—a staggering +75-point advantage over the United States. Malaysia posts a +56-point gap, Indonesia +48, and several other Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern publics show double-digit leads for China. At the opposite extreme, only 11 percent of Japanese adults view China favorably. The United States retains a clear edge in just six countries: India, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, Israel (where 81 percent rate the US favorably), and Poland.

 You can choose your friends, not your neighbors.

The shift is driven by simultaneous movements in both directions. Pew notes that "China being assessed more positively than the US is a relatively recent shift in most countries surveyed. This reversal in favorability is often driven by shifting views of both superpowers: improving views of China coupled with worsening views of the US" Canada offers one of the cleanest illustrations: "a majority of Canadians (57%) had a positive view of the US in 2023, while 14% viewed China positively. In 2025, Canadians were equally favorable toward the US and China. Now, more Canadians have a favorable view of China (44%) than the US (33%)." Parallel reversals appear across much of Europe and Latin America. Americans' nearest neighbors—Canadians and Mexicans—"also view China more positively than the US." 
 
How people in 36 countries view the US and China
(5 who have favorable opinion of ...).
 
In many countries, the US-China favorability gap has reversed. 


Regional and demographic patterns sharpen the picture. Views of China are closely linked to national income: people in middle-income countries across Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of South and Southeast Asia tend to hold far more positive opinions, while those in high-income European and East Asian nations remain more skeptical. Within the Asia-Pacific region itself the contrast is extreme—nine-in-ten Pakistanis see China favorably, compared with just 11 percent of Japanese adults. In Latin America, several publics that once clearly preferred the United States are now evenly split or lean toward China.
 
CNN: Global opinion for the US plummets by 79% since it
began its war on Iran. Only country hated more is Israel.  
 
Age divides reinforce the longer-term momentum. In nearly every country surveyed, adults under 35 express significantly more favorable views of China than those over 50. Even inside the United States, younger Americans are markedly less likely to hold "very unfavorable" opinions of China than the oldest generation. The generational gap appears consistently across high-income and middle-income publics alike, suggesting the current shift may deepen rather than reverse.
 
Confidence in the two presidents tracks the same regional and demographic contours. "While many people still lack confidence in Xi, positive views of him have become more widespread, and more overall now say they have confidence in Xi than in Trump." Across the continuously tracked countries, median confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping now exceeds that in US President Donald Trump. In most European nations, Xi leads Trump by double-digit margins even though absolute confidence remains modest—the highest reading for Xi is just 37 percent in the United Kingdom. In Mexico the disparity is especially sharp: confidence in Trump sits near single digits while confidence in Xi is several times higher. Trump retains an edge mainly among China's immediate neighbors—India, Japan, and the Philippines.
 
POTUS 47
Wrecking Ball to the Empire.
 
In middle-income countries the contrast on foreign-policy roles is sharper still. "People in 17 middle-income countries raise more concerns about the United States' foreign policy than China's. A median of 75% say that the US interferes in the affairs of other countries a great deal or a fair amount, while 45% say the same of China. In nearly every country surveyed, more people see the US as an interferer than China." South Africa illustrates the practical consequence: 72 percent call China a reliable partner versus 46 percent for the United States, and the share saying China contributes to peace and stability has risen from 47 percent in 2023 to 64 percent in 2026. In Pakistan the reliability gap reaches 84 percent for China versus 36 percent for the United States; in the Philippines the reverse holds (81 percent versus 42 percent).
 
One residual American advantage remains on personal freedoms. "More say the US government respects the personal freedoms of its people than say the same of the Chinese government." Yet the gap is closing rapidly. "People in nearly every country surveyed have become less likely to say the US government respects its people's personal freedoms" since 2021. In Sweden the figure has plunged from 61 percent to 27 percent; drops of 25 points or more also registered in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, South Korea, and Spain. In Mexico the numbers have already flipped: roughly one-third say China respects personal freedoms while only 20 percent say the same of the United States.
 
» The reversal is no longer marginal. «
 
While "fortresses" of pro-American sentiment remain—Israel, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, India, and Poland—the Spring 2026 data show a world that has moved decisively from a US-led consensus toward a more fragmented reality. China's economic and diplomatic influence is increasingly welcomed, especially in middle-income regions and among younger cohorts. The extremes of the favorability map now run from 90 percent positive in Pakistan to 11 percent in Japan, with the United States holding majority favorability in only a handful of places.
 

See also:

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Al-Aqsa Triangle: Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb, and Suez Chokepoints

Following the partial disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is emerging as a second potential global energy chokepoint. The Ansar Allah movement (Houthis) in Yemen has announced an initial naval blockade targeting Saudi vessels, citing the long-standing Saudi air and sea blockade of Yemen

Al-Aqsa Triangle: Yemen–Iran strategy to disrupt global trade
by closing the Middle East's three key maritime chokepoints.
Bab al-Mandeb links the Suez–Red Sea corridor to the Indian Ocean and, alongside Hormuz, forms a dual chokepoint system vulnerable to escalation via Iran-aligned actors. A simultaneous disruption would block roughly a quarter of global energy flows and a large share of Asia–Europe trade, with Hormuz carrying 27% of seaborne oil and 20% of LNG, and the Bab al-Mandeb/Suez corridor each handling 11% of global trade and 8% of LNG. 
The Bab al-Mandeb is not yet fully closed. Commercial traffic continues, but the corridor is operating under elevated threat conditions. Attacks on selected vessels have increased, producing selective disruption rather than a comprehensive blockade. In response, some shipping lines are rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, while others continue transit under heightened security measures, including naval presence and route adjustments. In response to constraints at Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has shifted a significant share of exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, where approximately 4 million barrels of crude are loaded daily. Roughly 3 million barrels per day are destined for Asian markets and transit the Bab al-Mandeb.
American worthless signature: The repeated breaches of the agreement by the Great Satan regarding the MOU signed by the Presidents of Iran and the US have once again laid bare a fundamental truth: the signature of the US President is utterly worthless and devoid of credibility. It further reaffirms that coercion and brutality are inseparable components of the US creed and doctrine. Imam Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei, July 17, 2026.
Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope adds 6,000 km (3,700 miles) and 10–14 days transit time, in some cases longer. This materially increases fuel, charter, and operating costs. War-risk insurance premiums for Red Sea transit have also surged, adding several hundred thousand USD per voyage. Escalation risk centers on a full blockade scenario. If Ansar Allah forces interdict all international shipping, not just Saudi vessels, the impact would be significantly greater.
 
Strategic Trade Significance: Hormuz vs. Bab al-Mandeb
Hormuz concentrates unmatched upstream energy dependency, funneling roughly 20% of global oil (17–20 million bpd), over 20% of LNG, and a decisive share of global helium vital for high-tech and medical supply chains. Because Saudi and UAE pipeline bypasses cover only a fraction of normal volumes, any disruption creates an immediate physical supply deficit—driving rapid oil and gas repricing with direct spillovers into petrochemicals, fertilizers, and industrial inputs.

Bab al-Mandeb anchors throughput rather than production, serving as the southern gateway to Suez. It carries 12–15% of global trade, including major Asia–Europe container traffic, dry bulk, and mid-single-digit million bpd of oil. Unlike Hormuz, these flows can be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, though doing so adds roughly 6,000 km, 10–14 days, and sharp increases in fuel costs, vessel utilization constraints, freight rates, and war-risk premiums.

Consequently, their economic transmission mechanisms diverge. Hormuz is a quantity shock that removes physical supply and forces immediate energy repricing. Bab al-Mandeb is a friction shock that preserves supply but degrades delivery efficiency, triggering broader, slower-moving inflation across manufactured goods, energy derivatives, and food. Fertilizer markets sit at the intersection, relying on Hormuz for Gulf ammonia and urea to exit, and on Bab al-Mandeb for efficient delivery to European and African markets.

Simultaneous impairment escalates systemic risk nonlinearly. Upstream supply contraction combines with downstream logistical breakdown, eliminating volume availability and transit efficiency at once. This dual constraint compresses global inventories, amplifies price volatility, and propagates cost increases across industrial inputs and consumer goods with minimal buffering capacity.
The Bab al-Mandeb handles thousands of commercial transits annually and links the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and Suez Canal—one of the world's critical trade corridors. Full closure would force large-scale rerouting around Africa, extending delivery times, increasing freight rates and insurance costs, and placing renewed stress on global supply chains.  
 
July 21, 2026: Iran Destroys F-15 Hanger Base, 100 US Troops Lost as Trump Panics.

Cost transmission effects would likely be broad-based. Higher transport costs would feed into fuel prices (gasoline, diesel, heating oil), airfares, food, consumer goods, and imported products. Firms would absorb higher logistics and energy costs, with partial pass-through to end consumers.

July 21, 2026: Bab al-Mandeb Strait Becomes New Shipping Flashpoint as Houthis Signal Blockade.
 
The EU is engaged via Operation Aspides with a mandate limited to protecting civilian shipping. The US and the UK are conducting separate military strikes against targets in Yemen. Historical precedent indicates limited containment success: prior multinational naval deployments with dozens of warships failed to durably constrain Ansar Allah capabilities. Current Ansar Allah systems include even more advanced drones and missiles than in 2025.

 
A concurrent escalation in Bab al-Mandeb alongside sustained tension in the Strait of Hormuz would affect the region's two principal energy and trade corridors simultaneously, posing a high-risk scenario for global economic disruption and upward pressure on energy, transport, and consumer prices.

Friday, July 3, 2026

The Nihilistic Moral Collapse of the West | Alastair Crooke

We are experiencing a complete nihilistic moral collapse in the West in so many ways. We have lost sight of what it is to be human. We are undermining civilization—our civilization and all civilizations—by these sorts of completely amoral actions that take place. 
 

We have to try to find a way of recreating a civilizational structure that provides the moral foundations for how people behave and who they are. They always come, basically, from the old myths and narratives of a civilization. 
These are the moral stories that create the architecture by which ordinary people steer their lives and live. And when you lose that, you are on a path to utter destruction.
» I keep hearing that we can't kill the leaders of another country when we're negotiating with them. I'm sorry, that's not how the rules work. The rules say we can't invite them to a negotiation, seat them at a table, and then go all "Game of Thrones Red Wedding" on them. That's against the rules.


But once they have shown that they're not going to work and that they're actually an obstacle to peace, then we have every right to go ahead and turn some of those people into their component molecules and fly some missiles through their windows to make sure that the rest of the people negotiating on that side know not to mess around with President Trump. And I can guarantee that the CIA and Mossad have a list of people to whom that could happen that is long and distinguished. That could be a good next step. « 

Jim Hanson, President, Security Studies Group (US national security think tank), July 2, 2026.
Jim Hanson is an example of someone on the path to having no moral standing at all, to suggest that it's fine to kill leaders of other countries. It's really very distressing to hear that, and it should be condemned clearly.

 
» They are all there! One shot and we take them all out. « 
Orange ape calls Ayatollah Khamenei's funeral a military opportunity.

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Whom God Wishes to Destroy, He First Drives Mad | Giorgio Agamben

It is worth reflecting upon a fact so incredible that we attempt to repress it at all costs: namely, that the state which claims to be the most powerful in the world has been governed for years by men who are technically demented. This is not to give an extreme form to a political judgment. That Trump—like Biden before him—must be considered demented in the pathological sense of the term is an evident fact now shared by many psychiatrists, and one that anyone observing his mode of expression cannot fail to endorse.


It goes without saying that what interests us here is not the clinical case of the individuals named Trump and Biden; rather, the question we cannot fail to ask ourselves is: what is the historical significance of the fact that a country like the United States—which stands in some way at the helm of the entire West—is governed by a mentally ill person? What radical spiritual and moral decline, even before a political one, could have led to such an extreme consequence?

That the destiny of the West was marked by nihilism is something Nietzsche had already diagnosed more than a century ago, alongside the death of God. Yet, it was by no means a given that nihilism would take the form of dementia. Perhaps it is out of some measure of compassion and mercy that the God who wishes to destroy the West leads it to its end not through awareness and accountability, but through oblivion and madness.

Tuesday, June 9, 2026

"Hell Will Start in the Middle East" | Krzysztof Jackowski

Today is June 7th. The first feeling is that hell will start in the Middle East. There will be an attack on Israel. Forces will ally against Israel. Israel will provoke events in order to be attacked. It is highly probable that such an attack on Israel will occur so that America becomes more active.

 
Trump is clearly backing away from continuing the war with Iran. At this time, Israel will want to increase war activity. This may be done to provoke an attack on Israel between the 11th and the 16th of June. The situation may significantly escalate.

 
Krzysztof Jackowski (born 1963) is a self-described clairvoyant and psychic investigator from Człuchów, Poland. Of modest background and without documented formal higher education or training in investigative or scientific fields, he worked in manual trades before gaining national attention in the 1990s for assisting in missing-person cases, reportedly using extrasensory perception to locate bodies and provide investigative leads. Since then, he has frequently appeared in Polish media sharing predictions about political, economic, and global events, and has more recently built a large online following, especially on YouTube. Skeptics, however, dismiss Poland's most famous psychic as a charlatan, arguing that his "shotgun technique"—issuing hundreds of vague, wide-ranging predictions—guarantees that a small fraction will, by sheer probability, coincide with real-world events by chance.
June 9, 2026: Iran continues to humiliate the orange ape. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas
Araghchi explains to the simpleton that the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran and Oman.
 
June 7, 2026: 
Khaybar Shekan, another Iranian ballistic 
missile with cluster munitions, slams into I$raHell.
 
See also:

Saturday, May 23, 2026

2026 Saturn-Neptune Conjunction: Global Ideological and Institutional Reset

 
The above geopolitical cycle model developed by André Barbault correlates major transformations with long planetary cycles, especially the geocentric 36-year conjunction cycle of Saturn and Neptune, historically associated with ideological restructuring of states and political systems
Saturn-Neptune 
conjunction in Aries on February 20, 2026.
It is important to recognize that in both geocentric and heliocentric mundane astrology, outer-planet cycles—such as the conjunction of Saturn and Neptune—describe broad rhythms of global historical development rather than events confined to the USSR, Russia, or any other single empire, state, nation, or civilization (as is the case in natal astrology applied to states, nations, etc.). 
 
36-Year Saturn-Neptune Conjunction Cycle (1600 to 2200 | EST/EDT).
 
 
Saturn represents structure, boundaries, authority, governments, discipline, death, and the weight of material reality, as well as time. Neptune signifies dreams, illusions, disillusionment, ideology, deception, oil, religion, and the transcendent—along with spirituality. When these two planets conjoin, a collision occurs between the real and the ideal: old structures dissolve, new visions emerge, and the line between liberation and tyranny becomes increasingly blurred.

The latest Saturn-Neptune conjunction occurred on February 20, 2026 at 0° Aries, the Aries Point traditionally linked with events of global manifestation. This alignment inaugurated a new Saturn–Neptune cycle extending roughly from 2026 to 2062 and therefore marks a probable phase of systemic ideological and institutional reorganization comparable in structural significance to earlier conjunction periods such as 1917 and 1989. The broader planetary configuration intensifies the importance of this reset (see table below). Pluto entered Aquarius in 2024, a transit associated with technological transformation, mass mobilization, and redistribution of political power that lasts into the 2040s. 

Neptune is moving into Aries in 2025–2026, symbolizing ideological mobilization and the emergence of new collective narratives, while Saturn also enters Aries in 2026, imposing institutional pressure and forcing structural redefinition of political authority. At the same time Uranus enters Gemini in 2026, historically correlated with communication revolutions and geopolitical confrontation; previous passages coincided with the American Revolutionary era and the Second World War. 

The simultaneous ingress of several outer planets during the mid-2020s therefore indicates a rare generational transition affecting technological systems, ideological structures, and geopolitical balances.
 
The February 2026 Saturn–Neptune conjunction marks the opening of a new ideological cycle. The most volatile interval will be approximately 2025–2030, when structural tensions manifest through wars, crises and systemic reorganization, followed by institutional consolidation and a new world order between roughly 2032 and 2035. 
Within this configuration the latest Saturn–Neptune conjunction functions as the cycle’s ignition point. Conjunction phases historically coincide with dissolution of prevailing ideological frameworks and the emergence of new political narratives. When combined with Pluto in Aquarius and Uranus in Gemini, the interval from roughly 2025 to 2027 appears as the principal systemic shock phase. 

Short-term activations occur when faster bodies cross the conjunction degree: transits of Mars and the Sun in February–March 2026 and again during mid-2026, when Mars forms tense aspects with Uranus, represent a trigger windows during which underlying structural tensions manifest through political crises, financial disruptions, and abrupt internal, regional, and global geopolitical confrontations.
 
 
After the conjunction the cycle normally enters a formative phase lasting several years. Between approximately 2028 and 2031 the developing Saturn–Neptune dynamic may manifest as ideological polarization and attempts to construct new institutional frameworks. 

» 
The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. «
Antonio Gramsci, Prison Notebook #3, 1930.

Uranus advancing through Gemini emphasizes technological rivalry, cyber conflict, and strategic competition in communications and artificial intelligence, while Pluto in Aquarius intensifies collective movements and challenges entrenched hierarchies of power. The interaction of these cycles suggests a period in which nations, states, and civilizations experience pronounced internal political tension while simultaneously confronting structural competition within an evolving multipolar and eurasiacentric international system.
 
By the early 2030s this cycle tends toward consolidation. From roughly 2032 to 2035 the ideological and institutional structures that emerge from the earlier crisis phase are likely to stabilize, producing revised political doctrines, new geopolitical alignments, or reconfigured economic frameworks. Historical precedents indicate that such consolidation does not necessarily imply decline; states, nations, and civilizations often emerge from these cycles transformed but institutionally durable. 
 
Nevertheless, the concentration of outer-planet transitions in the mid-2020s implies that the interval from about 2025 to 2030 represents the most volatile portion of the Saturn–Neptune cycle. In strict cyclical terms, this period constitutes the window in which all states, nations, and civilizations in the international system most likely encounter a decisive ideological and structural turning point shaping the political order of the subsequent decades.
 
See also:

Thursday, May 14, 2026

China Is a Market Economy, but Not Capitalist | Eric Xun Li

In America, you can change political parties, but you can't change the policies. In China, you cannot change the party, but you can change policies. China is a vibrant market economy, but it is not a capitalist country. Here's why: there's no way a group of billionaires could control the Politburo, as billionaires control American policy-making. So, in China, you have a market economy, but capital cannot rise above political authority. Capital does not have enshrined rights. 

White Dolphin Island, part of the Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macau Bridge (HZMB), a key section of the 55-kilometer bridge-tunnel
megaproject ($18.8 billion) completed in 2018, connecting Hong Kong, Zhuhai, and Macau across China's Pearl River Delta.

US infrastructure would need $33 trillion (baseline) to $42 trillion (desired) of
investment through 2050 for modernization, digital economy, and maintenance.

» Capital cannot rise above political authority. «
Eric Xun Li. 
 
Epstein's BBF and his $12 Trillion "CEO Cabinet" in Beijing, is continuing to work hard
for the ultimate techno-feudal mission entrusted to him by his donors and handlers.
 
MIGA-Don understands that Chinese President Xi Jinping  
expects to see a "deal" between the US and Iran... 
 
...while dimwit Rubio is simply fascinated by
the ceiling of the Great Hall of the People.... 
 
...and Musk, seated next to BYD's CEO,
decides to be the clown of the party.
May 13, 2026.

In America, the interest of capital, and capital itself, has risen above the American nation. The political authority cannot check the power of capital. That's why America is a capitalist country, and China is not. China has been run by one single party, but the political changes that have taken place have been broader and greater than in any other major country in modern history.
 

 

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

The US Just Made Gold Its Number One Export | Gerry Nolan

America just made gold its number one export, and it’s pouring straight into China via Switzerland. For the last five months running, US gold shipments have topped everything else the country sells abroad. In March alone, they were 1.7 times larger than oil, twice pharma, and two and a half times aircraft engines.
 
» How exactly does this serve the United States? «
  
Most of it doesn’t even stay in America: it sails through Switzerland’s refineries and lands in Beijing’s vaults. This is highly unusual. The US doesn’t ship its oldest store of value to its biggest rival at record pace under normal conditions. Geopolitical tension, inflation hedging, and quiet signals that gold is becoming a settlement mechanism in US–China trade have flipped the script.

America is quietly surrendering the one asset that still commands respect when the dollar starts to wobble. It’s the visible symptom of a deeper reckoning: Beijing is no longer content to hold endless piles of US Treasuries or accept dollars for its oil and goods. With every sanctioned barrel and every BRICS handshake, China is forcing real settlement in the one currency that can’t be printed into oblivion. The empire ships bullion east while its navy steams around the Gulf, pretending it still runs the world. The numbers don’t lie, and neither does the direction of travel.

» Real money to the competition while the dollar-printing machine keeps spinning. «
 
So, tell how exactly does this serve the United States? It doesn’t. But it sure as hell serves China. The empire is literally melting down its patrimony and handing the real money to the competition while the increasingly worthless dollar-printing machine keeps spinning.

 

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