Many people believe
Trump 2.0 will be a 'peaceful' presidency, but I think they are mistaken. If
war becomes the best option to overcome the US crisis, Donald Trump will not
shy away from further conflict. Trump and his team are determined to maintain US dominance on the global stage as an empire—nothing has changed in that regard. While some may hope for the decline of the US empire, and I can understand that sentiment, the following isn't about whether the US should or shouldn't remain an empire. It's about how the Trump 2.0 administration is attempting to salvage the situation.
Through Elon Musk, Trump will aim to reform and abolish much of the federal bureaucracy, including challenging some of the core interests of the military-industrial complex. If he succeeds, it could shatter the entire establishment system, including the massive oligarchy operating behind it, particularly in the pharmaceutical and military sectors. However, the question remains: Can Elon Musk and his new department, DOGE, accomplish this goal? Honestly, I don't think he can. To make America great again (MAGA), there are three things the United States and its leadership must avoid:
- The collapse of the US military: To prevent the US military from collapsing, significant reform is necessary. As it stands, the US military is only capable of operating at the battalion level and is no longer able to challenge a major power in large-scale conventional warfare. While US combat tactics and intelligence networks remain the best in the world, the country’s conventional forces—including the Army, Navy, and Air Force—are falling behind. The US still holds an upper hand over smaller or medium-sized countries, but in conventional warfare with a major power, the military would stand little chance. If this situation persists for another five years, the US will be unable to challenge even medium-sized nations. The military’s strength today lies in special forces, covert operations, and tactics like assassination—but in terms of large-scale warfare, as seen in Ukraine, the US is no longer capable of handling such conflicts. This is a serious issue. The US military cannot collapse; it is a basic requirement for maintaining a global hegemonic empire. Over time, parts of the military have been privatized, but these private forces are unlikely to match the capabilities of groups like Russia’s Wagner, and their loyalty could be questionable. This privatization has left the US military in a fragile state.
- The collapse of the US dollar: To stabilize the US dollar, the US must address its looming debt crisis and budget deficit. At $40 trillion in federal debt, the US is approaching a dangerous threshold—a breaking point after which the dollar could face a severe collapse. This wouldn't necessarily mean a collapse against other currencies, but rather a collapse in value relative to assets like Bitcoin, gold, or other key commodities. This is a critical issue that cannot be postponed. The US needs to begin addressing this problem by 2025 and show clear results by 2026.
- The collapse of US capital markets: The US capital market is a key pillar supporting the US empire. To prevent its collapse, the US must achieve a degree of reindustrialization. Currently, the capital market is one of the few remaining supports for the US dollar itself.
But let’s now turn to Scott Bessent,
whom Trump has chosen as his Treasury Secretary. To me, Bessent is the real gladiator
behind Trump 2.0, not Elon Musk. I believe Bessent is one of the most
important members of Trump’s Cabinet, and his role will be crucial in
keeping the US empire alive. So, when Scott Bessent enters the Trump
Cabinet, we can be sure that Trump’s ultimate support still comes from
the same old force, because Bessent is one of the most powerful champions of
the US establishment deep state.
» Bessent is one of the most powerful champions of
the US deep state. «
Bessent is extremely
intelligent and capable. Many are confused about George Soros' financial
attacks around the world, including his famous campaign against the
British pound in 1997. The truth is, it wasn’t Soros who was the main
architect behind that; it was Bessent. Soros became famous because of
Bessent, not the other way around. Bessent’s capabilities go beyond what
most people can imagine. He possesses a deep understanding of monetary, currency, and financial systems—and, more
importantly, he has real-world combat experience in financial warfare. He is a genius. But like everyone, Bessent also has his flaws. People like him, who are highly capable and self-confident, often don’t hide their moves or intentions. He has outlined the following four main goals for the Trump 2.0 administration:
1. The US budget deficit must remain within 3%.
2. The US GDP growth must exceed 3%.
3. The US crude oil production must increase by 3 million barrels per day.
4. The US must turn Mexico into an economic vassal to replace China in their supply chain.
Let me offer my prediction: In terms of US debt control, Scott Bessent suggests that the federal deficit needs to be limited to around $1 trillion for fiscal year 2025. This is nearly an impossible task. According to my calculations, US debt will reach $40 trillion by the end of the third quarter of 2025. Achieving this goal would require drastic cuts to federal spending, and I don’t believe Elon Musk has the ability to accomplish that. The US federal government simply won’t be able to generate enough revenue in time to cover the deficit. If the goal is to increase state revenue, the only way would be to militarize the entire country—which is not only nearly impossible, but something I would strongly advise against.
As for the 3% annual GDP growth goal: I believe it is achievable. Given Bessent’s capabilities, I think he could reach this target by maintaining a capital accumulation rate above 6%.
Now, let’s focus on the goal of increasing crude oil production by 3 million barrels per day in the US:
This is one of the clearest indicators of Trump 2.0’s strategy. But why
3 million barrels? Why this specific number? This is not a random
figure. Do you know how much OPEC is reducing its production? Exactly 3
million barrels. Saudi Arabia has cut production by 1 million barrels,
Russia by nearly 1 million barrels, and the remaining reductions add up
to roughly 3 million barrels. So, while OPEC is cutting production by 3
million barrels, the US is increasing its production by the same amount.
Do
you think Scott Bessent wants oil prices to fall? To crash? Maybe down
to $20 a barrel? Do you think the energy giants would be happy with
that? No, they would be furious because the cost of production in the US
is around $30 a barrel. Do you think Bessent hasn’t thought about this?
Of course, he has. He likely predicts, just as I do, that oil prices
could rise to $150 a barrel. That’s why I said Bessent shouldn’t have made
these statements public—they act as a warning signal about a potential
US military operation. It suggests that the US might be preparing to
take action against Iran and, in doing so, potentially shut down the
entire Persian Gulf. That’s why Bessent wants to increase US crude oil
production by 3 million barrels.
We would have gotten all that oil. It would have been right next door. But now we're buying it. «
For those who don’t
understand the logic behind this, there’s a fundamental principle of
supply and demand in the oil market: When OPEC reduces production, it
typically signals a slight decrease in demand. However, when supply
drops dramatically—such as due to war—prices can skyrocket, often
exponentially rather than linearly. The US, as one of the few remaining
major oil producers, stands to benefit from a major conflict in the
Persian Gulf. With countries like Russia and Venezuela under heavy
sanctions, the US could potentially monopolize oil prices, using this
leverage to strengthen the US dollar against other currencies. This is
essentially the same strategy the US employed in the Ukraine conflict,
where by provoking the war and cutting off Russia’s energy supply to
Europe, the US launched an attack on both the euro and the ruble.
» Mexico is gonna have to straighten it out really fast, or the answer is absolutely. «
Scott Bessent, normally an extremely capable strategist, shouldn’t have revealed these goals so early, as doing so gives countries like China the chance to prepare and implement countermeasures. His statements now serve as a warning signal to world leaders about what’s to come and suggest that it is less likely the US will directly provoke a proxy war targeting China. During the anticipated surge in oil prices, the US could successfully collapse the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound, helping Scott Bessent achieve his goal.
On top of that, there's an additional strategy: The US could swiftly vassalize Mexico, rapidly industrialize it, and use it to complete a North American internal economic circulation. This would be the only way the US could successfully reindustrialize. Essentially, the US would turn Mexico into an economic vassal, replacing China in its supply chain. In fact, the most direct and simplest way for the US to reindustrialize would be to militarily occupy Mexico and use it as a substitute for China in its economic system.
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