Showing posts with label AI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AI. Show all posts

Sunday, February 9, 2025

China Already Won the Next Trade War with the US | Keyu Jin

Keyu Jin, a Harvard-educated professor from the London School of Economics, is one of the world’s leading insiders into the Chinese economy. She lays out the exact reasons why China is entering this next trade war with the US from a position of strength. China embraces strategic long-term planning, and when Donald Trump launched his first trade war against China back in 2018, the Chinese learned a valuable lesson: Never be too reliant on your main trading partner. China has long been preparing for reduced exposure to the US, diversifying in all aspects—not just in terms of trading partners and investment, but also in digital currencies and payment systems.  
 
 » Never be too reliant on your main trading partner. Diversify.
Don't be at the mercy of the dollar, nor the US financial system. «
 
Over the past seven years, China has strategically developed key industries that are set to dominate the future of our world: AI, quantum computing, blockchain, e-commerce, EVs, 5G networks, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, materials science and nanotechnology, advanced manufacturing, 3D printing, robotics, space exploration, high-speed rail, advanced transportation and urban technologies, green technologies, agri-tech, and geoengineering—mirroring the complete technocratic Fourth Industrial Revolution agenda of the World Economic Forum. At Davos, Professor Jin explains how this shift has transformed the global economy:
 
"If you look at industries like electric vehicles (EVs) and solar panels—what they call new productive forces—very little of it is actually going to the US. This shift has pushed China to embrace new opportunities, sign new trade deals, and establish new trading partners. Global trade has actually expanded, and China's position in the world as a share of global exports has risen, while the US's has declined. So, while the US is retreating, China is opening up as much as possible. This is why Premier Li Keqiang (2013-2023) has repeatedly said China will unilaterally open up, offering zero tariffs to the least developed countries. We should not underestimate the degree and pace of fragmentation that is happening—multipolarity and the rise of economic blocs. We are already seeing the data, whether it's investment or trade, regarding the interaction between non-aligned blocs and aligned blocs. If you go around the world, asking the likes of Brazil or Asian countries, what are they saying? The same thing: Diversify. Don't be at the mercy of the dollar, nor the US financial system."

China halted exports of several rare minerals, including gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard
materials to the US, citing their dual military and civilian uses. In response to a 10 percent levy
on Chinese goods, China also imposed a 15 percent tariff on US imports of coal and LNG.
 
This cannot be overstated. All of these new industries in which China is leading—electric vehicles, solar panels, and high-speed rail—are mostly not going to the United States. In the US you won’t see a single Chinese EV on the road. But in places like Thailand, Australia, and Brazil, Chinese automakers are dominating the market. Look at the top 20 fastest-growing economies on earth: Every single one of them is in the Global South—in the Middle East, North Africa, Asia Pacific, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, not a single American or European country is on that list. Many Western economies are stuck with zero to 3% growth, teetering on the edge of recession. And who is the number one trading partner for every single one of these rising economies? China. China hasn’t just dominated the fastest-growing regions; it has become the largest trading partner for the majority of the world. That’s why China can withstand this tariff war far better than the US.

»
D
eepSeek R1 is AI's Sputnik moment. «
Marc Andreessen, January 26, 2025.

Simply put: China has a plethora of options. But it doesn’t stop there. It’s not just about who is growing; it's also about who is declining. Western economies are not what they once were. The average American—and European, for that matter—simply doesn't have the same disposable income they did decades ago. And this trend is only worsening. This presents a massive problem for Trump, as his biggest leverage in this trade war is supposed to be the US consumer market. But what happens when that market isn't as powerful as it used to be? That only leaves the industrial sector, where the US is simply no match for China.

»
This is China’s, not AI's, “Sputnik moment”. «

At the same time, the United States currently has sanctions on more than a third of the global economy, including 60% of all poor countries. As a Global South country, looking at who to trade with, it’s a no-brainer: China is clearly the better partner. While China has been building bridges and securing trade deals, Trump has been doing the exact opposite—taxing his closest allies. Under his administration, every country or region that has a trade surplus with the United States is now a target. The message is clear: If your country sells more goods to the US than the US sells to yours, you have two options: either relocate your industries to the US or face trade tariffs. Even Canada—one of the United States' closest allies and neighbor—was hit with 25% tariffs before Trump saw the stock market crash and quickly announced a 30-day pause to give time for Canada to negotiate. What Trump will do with the rest of the world has yet to be seen, but one thing is for certain: other countries aren't waiting around to find out. Every major economy is scrambling to diversify and find alternatives to US trade dependence.

» 2025 is the year when the investment community realizes that China is surpassing the rest of the world. «
Deutsche Bank, February 05, 2025.
 
While the US falters and the EU looks for an economic lifeline, Asia has firmly established itself as the center of global economic growth, with China at the helm as the undisputed economic superpower. China now accounts for more than 30% of the world’s total manufacturing output. China has completely leapfrogged the rest of the world in producing sophisticated industrial goods at a scale and cost that no Western country can compete with. 
 
Looking west, the Persian Gulf nations—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others—have also begun prioritizing their relationships with China and India. Why? Energy. Asia now accounts for over 70% of total oil and gas exports from the Gulf. This energy trade, combined with the region's critical position along the New Silk Road connecting China to Europe, has turned the Middle East into one of the biggest beneficiaries of this new global economic order. 
 
»
 
I expect a sharp recovery in China’s economy in the latter half of 2025, boosting global performance. «
Simon Hunt, January 11, 2025.
 
The global landscape is quickly changing. One of the fastest-growing economic blocs is ASEAN—the Southeast Asian powerhouse economies of Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. These countries are crucial for China’s future success. The biggest changes in trade can be seen in Asia. Nearly 60% of Asia's trade happens within the region, and half of the world’s fastest-growing trade corridors are there. In 2023, China's exports to ASEAN nations bypassed those from the United States. And with a majority of these countries either already in BRICS or set to join, these trade relationships will only deepen.

 
 » The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. « 

 
 » Americans are not known to like Chinese, nor are they known to like Muslims.
But somehow they like Chinese Muslims a lot. «
Former Foreign Minister of Singapore, George Yeo, on the Xinjiang Uyghur issue, May 23, 2023.

See
also:

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Google Censorship Against TPR | Sincerely, The Blogger Team

December 17, 2024
 
Hello, your post titled "Pentagon Staged COVID-19 Plandemic Years in Advance | Sasha Latypova" [February 15, 2024] was flagged to us for review. We have determined that it violates our guidelines and deleted the post, previously at http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2024/02/pentagon-staged-covid-19-plandemic.html. Why was your blog post deleted? Your content has violated our Misleading Content policy. 
 
Sincerely, The Blogger Team
 
 
See instead:
Sasha Latypova Reveals COVID Pandemic Was a Dept. of Defense Operation Dating Back to Obama Regime, November 25, 2024:
https://rumble.com/v5sevk2-covid-pandemic-dod-operation.html

Sasha Latypova on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s podcast, March 15, 2023:
 
 

Friday, December 6, 2024

Due to 'Mega Forces': No More Bust, Only Boom | BlackRock Outlook 2025

In its 2025 Global Outlook, BlackRock states that the global economy has moved beyond the cycle of 'boom and bust,' driven by a fundamental shift fueled by the rise of "mega forces." BlackRock argues that the world economy is currently undergoing a transformation shaped by five new "mega forces:" (1.) the transition to net-zero carbon emissions, (2.) geopolitical fragmentation, (3.) demographic changes, (4.) the digitization of finance, and (5.) AI.

 Finally, a world forever rosy: No more bust, only boom.

BlackRock, which oversees $11.5 trillion in assets, believes that this "economic transformation" has broken the global economy free from "historical trends" that have seen markets cycle through boom and bust for centuries. "Mega forces are reshaping economies and their long-term trajectories—it's no longer about short-term fluctuations in activity leading to expansion or recession. [...] 2024 has reinforced our view that we are not in a business cycle: AI has been a major market driver, inflation fell without a growth slowdown, and typical recession signals failed." BlackRock anticipates that stocks will benefit from this ongoing global transformation, which will require massive investments from capital markets, potentially rivaling the investments seen during the Industrial Revolution of the 19th and 20th centuries.

If Schumpeter knew: Economy now free of cycles.
 
As a result, BlackRock suggests investors should rethink their strategies, focusing on long-term opportunities, such as capitalizing on the infrastructure needed for this emerging future. "We think investors should focus more on themes and less on broad asset classes as mega forces reshape whole economies. [...] Infrastructure is at the intersection of mega forces—like AI. The AI buildout is creating a huge and immediate need for data centers. Demand for new-build green infrastructure is skyrocketing as countries and tech companies race to reduce emissions."

In the short term, BlackRock expects US stocks to continue their rally in 2025, in line with trends showing US companies outpacing global competitors over the last decade. "We see the US still standing out versus other developed markets due to stronger growth and its ability to better capitalize on mega forces. We’re increasing our overweight position in US equities and expect the AI theme to broaden." A positive US economic growth outlook for 2025, combined with Donald Trump’s tax cuts and deregulatory initiatives, could further boost the prospects for US stocks.

Meanwhile, US-China tensions are expected to intensify competition for resources, such as "copper," as both nations vie for a competitive edge in AI. New import tariffs imposed by Trump could exacerbate the situation. BlackRock also points to aging global populations, which are likely to push up labor costs and keep inflation high, a trend that could be worsened by potential new limits on immigration introduced by Trump.

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Nvidia Before & After ChatGPT │ Phil Rosen

Similar to what happened last quarter, the world’s largest stock fell more than 2.5% in overnight trading following the blowout earnings report.
 
Earnings per share: $0.81, beating estimates for $0.74, up 103% from a year ago.
Revenue: $35.1 billion, beating estimates for $33.2 billion, up 94% from a year ago.
Nvidia’s Q4 revenue forecast: $37.5 billion (±2%), beating estimates for $37 billion.
 
The following chart is worth revisiting every earnings report, as it becomes more extreme with each update: 

 Nvidia had risen 192% year-to-date as of Wednesday's close.


$NVDA is flashing in our buyer's frenzy indicator again. This is tactical, but suggests upside 
expectations are extraordinarily high/priced in. — RenMac, November 20, 2024.

Monday, November 18, 2024

US Stock Market Nearing a Top Similar to 1929 │ Tom DeMark

The stock market has been charging along for months. Perhaps not for much longer. Tom DeMark, an award-winning technical analyst who has advised investors such as Paul Tudor Jones, Leon Cooperman, and Steven A. Cohen, believes a market top is imminent.

DeMark highlights that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, from its December 1914 low to its September 1929 high, rallied 624%. From the 2009 low to this week’s high, the Dow has gained 587%. He notes that the current price action mirrors the patterns from the earlier period.  
 
DeMark focuses on trend exhaustion, with the guiding principle that "markets top on good news and bottom on bad." He uses sequences of 9 and 13 daily, weekly, or monthly bars, which need not be consecutive but must exceed the performance from 4 sessions ago in the 9-model or 2 sessions ago in the 13-model. For more information on DeMark's Sequential 9-13 Setup, visit his website [HERE], and [HERE].

 DJIA (1913-1933, and 2008-current; monthly bars).
"On the daily charts of the Dow and S&P, two new all-time highs are needed to trigger a sell signal."
DeMark suggests the Dow’s optimistic upside potential is 47,045, and for the S&P 500, it is 6,118.
"This could lead to a 5% to 10% pullback or a full breakdown."
 
 DJIA (2019-2024; monthly bars).

He also compares the current rally to the one from 2020 to early 2022. The multi-month advance from late 2022 shows a potential upside projection identical to that earlier move.  
 
 DJIA (Q4 2024; daily bars).

For the S&P 500, DeMark reports that the monthly sequential model countdown is at 12 or 13, with an upside potential of 6,118. The S&P 500 closed Thursday, November 14, at 5,949, unable to maintain gains above the 6,000 mark. 
 
On the daily charts, both the Dow and S&P are at sequential countdown 11, meaning two new all-time highs are needed to trigger a sell signal. This could lead to a 5% to 10% pullback or a full breakdown. "The past two weeks' rally has been precarious. A sudden halt in buying—without selling pressure—could undermine the rally and shift the market into a sellers’ phase."
 
"While good news may last until Trump's inauguration, once buying interest fades, any subsequent rallies are likely to be short-lived." 

  Nvidia (February-November 2024; daily bars).
"A new closing high would mark the end of its rally."

DeMark is also cautious about Nvidia, the key microchip maker driving the AI revolution, which reports results next week. The stock is at countdown 12, and a new closing high would mark the end of its rally. DeMark projects Nvidia’s upside potential at $154.50 but warns the downside risk 
"could be significant."
 
 
 
 
Trends and turning points are more important than levels. 60-, 80-, or 120-Year Cycle?

Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Tom Cotton │ Xi Jinping


»
Don’t take it the wrong way.
You guys seem smart, but you keep funding utterly dumb and clownish politicians in your country. 
What’s up with that? In China, Tom Cotton wouldn’t even be a village chief. «
 
President Xi Jinping, while meeting with US corporate leaders in Beijing. - March 2024

Saturday, February 24, 2024

Google's woke AI makes Vikings black and the Pope a Woman

The men of today boast of the ever growing extent of the modifications they impose on the world, and the consequence is that everything is thereby made more and more ‘artificial’.


The falsification of everything has been shown to be one of the characteristic features of our period, but falsification is not in itself subversion properly so-called, though contributing directly to the preparation for it. Perhaps the clearest indication of this is what may be called the falsification of language, taking the form of the misuse of certain words that have been diverted from their true meaning; misuse of this kind is to some extent imposed by constant suggestion on the part of everyone who exercises any kind of influence over the mentality of the public.

Friday, February 16, 2024

Sora │ Creating Video from Text

Reality aborted. Prompt:
Historical footage of California during the gold rush.
 
The launch of Sora yesterday marked the day that we can no longer tell what's real or fake on the internet anymore. 
This is the worst AI will ever be. Now the Americans really will go to the moon.
 

»
There was truth and there was untruth, and if you clung to the truth even against the whole world, you were not mad. « 
 
Reference:
 
AI expert Connor Leahy is a hacker, researcher and expert on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). He is the CEO of Conjecture
a company he co-founded to focus on making AGI safe. He shares the view of many leading thinkers in the industry,
including the godfather of AI Geoffrey Hinton, who fear what they have built.