The Rise of the Black Swan Transponder | Srinivasa Raghava K

Nassim Nicholas Taleb established the idea of “Black Swan” events in 2007, a phrase that refers to an occurrence that is extremely unlikely yet has a big impact. These circumstances are by definition unpredictable because they go beyond what one would typically anticipate. However, they appear explicable in hindsight, creating the mistaken impression that events were predictable. Black Swans can occur in a variety of industries, including technology, banking, and even natural disasters and pandemics. 

 

» How does one live with the continual fear of catastrophe? «

What if, however, there was a tool that could anticipate these Black Swan occurrences? A technology so sophisticated that it could alert us to situations that are thought to be inherently unpredictable? [...] Imagine a scenario in which the “Predictorium” organisation has created the Black Swan Transponder, a tool that can identify these improbable but significant events. [...] What makes the Black Swan Transponder even more exciting is that it is embedded inside your brain rather than being located in a far-off supercomputer facility. As the selected volunteer, you now carry the burden of foresight as the only source of information of impending disasters.

[...] We face concerns about how to use such knowledge, the psychological implications of possessing such knowledge, and the ethical duties that come with this special capacity as we delve more into this thought experiment. Welcome to a future where Black Swans are no longer unforeseen and the unpredictable becomes predictable, but the moral and ethical ramifications are still as complex as ever.

» The device is now a reality. «

 

[...] In order to complete this difficult voyage, our unexpected volunteer carries the Black Swan Transponder inside their brain. It reveals scenarios of potentially life-changing Black Swan events, whispering potential futures into their awareness. With the capacity to either usher in a new era of preparedness or implode under the weight of their unparalleled foreknowledge, they are now an unwitting prophet of unlikely catastrophes.

[...] The device is now a reality after once being only an intriguing notion in the fields of quantum computing and artificial intelligence. It’s no longer kept in a huge, sterile lab, though. It’s hidden in the intricate neuronal networks of a person who, until recently, led a regular existence. They are currently at a crossroads where prediction and uncertainty coexist, struggling with knowledge that might either be a blessing or a curse. [...] The unusual volunteer on this quest is the lone sentinel with the ability to foresee the unexpected in a world where Black Swans no longer lurk covertly.

Quoted from:
Srinivasa Raghava K (2023) - Taleb’s Paradox: Envisioning Black Swan Predictability.

 

See also:

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2010) - The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

 Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2001) - Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets.

BasuNivesh (October 6, 2025) - Jio BlackRock Flexi Cap: Don’t Let AI Hype Mislead You.

Evgen Verzun (December 11, 2024) - BlackRock’s Aladdin: The Hidden Operating System of Global Finance.

TPR (December 6, 2024) - Due to 'Mega Forces': No More Bust, Only Boom | BlackRock Outlook 2025.

Due to 'Mega Forces': No More Bust, Only Boom | BlackRock Outlook 2025

In its 2025 Global Outlook, BlackRock states that the global economy has moved beyond the cycle of 'boom and bust,' driven by a fundamental shift fueled by the rise of "mega forces." BlackRock argues that the world economy is currently undergoing a transformation shaped by five new "mega forces:" (1.) the transition to net-zero carbon emissions, (2.) geopolitical fragmentation, (3.) demographic changes, (4.) the digitization of finance, and (5.) AI.

 Finally, a world forever rosy: No more bust, only boom.

BlackRock, which oversees $11.5 trillion in assets, believes that this "economic transformation" has broken the global economy free from "historical trends" that have seen markets cycle through boom and bust for centuries. "Mega forces are reshaping economies and their long-term trajectories—it's no longer about short-term fluctuations in activity leading to expansion or recession. [...] 2024 has reinforced our view that we are not in a business cycle: AI has been a major market driver, inflation fell without a growth slowdown, and typical recession signals failed." BlackRock anticipates that stocks will benefit from this ongoing global transformation, which will require massive investments from capital markets, potentially rivaling the investments seen during the Industrial Revolution of the 19th and 20th centuries.

If Schumpeter knew: Economy now free of cycles.

 

As a result, BlackRock suggests investors should rethink their strategies, focusing on long-term opportunities, such as capitalizing on the infrastructure needed for this emerging future. "We think investors should focus more on themes and less on broad asset classes as mega forces reshape whole economies. [...] Infrastructure is at the intersection of mega forces—like AI. The AI buildout is creating a huge and immediate need for data centers. Demand for new-build green infrastructure is skyrocketing as countries and tech companies race to reduce emissions."

In the short term, BlackRock expects US stocks to continue their rally in 2025, in line with trends showing US companies outpacing global competitors over the last decade. "We see the US still standing out versus other developed markets due to stronger growth and its ability to better capitalize on mega forces. We’re increasing our overweight position in US equities and expect the AI theme to broaden." A positive US economic growth outlook for 2025, combined with Donald Trump’s tax cuts and deregulatory initiatives, could further boost the prospects for US stocks.

Meanwhile, US-China tensions are expected to intensify competition for resources, such as "copper," as both nations vie for a competitive edge in AI. New import tariffs imposed by Trump could exacerbate the situation. BlackRock also points to aging global populations, which are likely to push up labor costs and keep inflation high, a trend that could be worsened by potential new limits on immigration introduced by Trump.

Reference:
BlackRock Investment Institute (December 4, 2024) - 2025 Global Outlook. Building the transformation.