S&P and NASDAQ Hurst Cycle Troughs by Late August | David Hickson

The S&P 500 analysis highlights a significant 18-month cycle trough formed in early April 2025, potentially of greater magnitude, driving recent bullish price action. An 80-day cycle trough occurred in the third week of June, aligning with the 80-day Future Line of Demarcation (FLD), a key cycle tool indicating support levels. 

 

An 18-month cycle trough in April 2025 has fueled recent gains, with an 80-day cycle trough in June confirming support via the FLD. A 40-day trough is due late July, followed by a deeper 20-week trough in August, forming a bullish M-shape pattern under longer-cycle upward pressure.

 

The dashed red composite model line aggregates cycle wavelengths and amplitudes to project future price movements. It closely mirrors past price action and forecasts a 40-day cycle trough in the third or final week of July, followed by a 20-week cycle trough around the third week of August. The composite model suggests a 20-week cycle peak is imminent or may have just occurred, with prices expected to decline into the 40-day trough, bounce slightly, and then fall into the 20-week trough, forming a bullish, distorted M-shape due to upward pressure from longer 18-month and 40-week cycles. The 20-week FLD will be critical for confirming support at the August trough, with shorter FLDs used to verify the peak.

The NASDAQ mirrors this pattern, with a significant cycle trough in April (at least 40-week magnitude, possibly 18-month), and a similar sequence of a 40-day trough in late July and a 20-week trough by late August. The composite model line indicates a smaller bounce after the 40-day trough compared to the S&P 500, but bullish pressure persists due to the April trough’s magnitude.

 

Tracking similarly to the S&P, the NASDAQ saw a major April trough (40-week or 18-month), with a 40-day cycle low expected in late July and a 20-week trough by late August. The bounce may be smaller than the S&P’s, but bullish momentum continues due to the strength of the April trough.

 

The 80-day FLD supported the June trough, and the 20-week FLD will be monitored to confirm support for the August trough, especially if the April trough matches the S&P 500’s 18-month magnitude. The principle of commonality underscores the synchronized movements across these markets. While the composite model’s price projections are less reliable due to cycle amplitude and wavelength variations, its shape provides a clear guide for expected market trends over the next several weeks.

 

Reference: 
David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - Perfect Cycles - Hurst Cycles Market Update - 14 July 2025. (video)

 

See also:

David Hickson (June 30, 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500.

Seasonal Weakness in US Stocks During July Options Expirations | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1990, the Friday of July’s monthly options expiration week has shown a bearish bias for the DJIA, which declined 21 times in 35 years, with two unchanged years—1991 and 1995. On that Friday, the average loss is 0.36% for the DJIA and 0.35% for the S&P 500.

 DJIA down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.36% loss.

 

The NASDAQ has declined in 23 of the past 35 years during this week, with an average loss of 0.46%, including seven consecutive down years most recently. This trend suggests a potential seasonal bearish pattern likely linked to options trading dynamics.

NASDAQ down 23 of 35 years (65%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.46% loss.

For the full week, the DJIA posts the best performance, rising in 21 of 35 years with an average gain of 0.39%. However, the NASDAQ has been the weakest, declining in 21 years—including the last seven consecutively—with an average loss of 0.18%.

S&P 500 down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.35% loss.

The week following monthly options expiration also tends to be bearish for the NASDAQ, which averages a loss, compared to mild gains for the DJIA and S&P 500.

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 11, 2025)  - July Monthly Options Expiration Week – NASDAQ Down 7 Straight.  

 

Positive Seasonality for Nasdaq (1990-2024) ends this week. SPX is similar.

 

Detrended Seasonality for S&P 500 (1990-2024). 

 

Namzes (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 Forecast Update. 

 

Namzes (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 2025  - 1965 Analogue Update.

 

 Nominal 20-Day Hurst Cycle in the S&P 500.

 

See also:

Krasi (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis. 

Branimir Vojcic (July 5, 2025)  - The NAAIM Index vs the S&P 500.
David Hickson (June 30, 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500. 

Jeff Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices.

Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ | David Hickson

The S&P 500 formed a subtle 80-day cycle trough around June 23, 2025, and is expected to rise toward a 20-week cycle peak in mid-July 2025 with moderate upward momentum (red dashed line). 

  

 

A decline into a 20-week trough is anticipated around mid-August 2025, with a longer-term target of 7,233 later in the year.

 

The NASDAQ is expected to continue its bullish trend, moving upward to form a 20-week cycle peak around mid-July, followed by a decline into a 20-week cycle trough expected in mid-August to early September. 

 

Reference:
David Hickson (June 30, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

 See also: 

David Hickson (June 17, 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Timing & Straddled Troughs in the S&P 500.  

TPR (June 27, 2025)  - Cosmic Cluster Days | July 2025. 

Jeff Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices. 

July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months but is also the seventh best performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.9% average gain. Lively trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year tends to bring an inflow of new capital.

Typical Post-Election Year July: Early Strength, Beyond Mid-Month Mixed.

This creates a bullish beginning, middle, and a mixed/flat final third. On average, over the last 21 years, nearly all of July’s gains have occurred in the first 13 trading days. Once a bullish day, the last trading day of July has had a modestly bearish bias over the last 21 years. In post-election years since 1950, July has exhibited a similar pattern to the recent 21-year period with some modest weakness just ahead of Independence Day.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - Typical July Trading: Strength Early, Beyond Mid-Month Mixed. 

 

Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac are showing that since 1950, July has been the strongest month for both the DJIA and the S&P 500 in post-election years. Specifically, the DJIA has averaged a 2.1% gain, ranking first among months, with 15 positive years and only 3 negative years. The S&P 500 mirrors this, averaging a 2.2% gain, also ranking first, with 12 positive and 6 negative years. 

 

This covers 19 presidential election cycles from 1952 to 2020, providing a robust dataset spanning post-war booms, recessions, and technological shifts. A notable statistic is the 10-year streak of positive July returns for both indices from 2015 to 2024, suggesting a recent intensification of this seasonal pattern. The table below summarizes the performance:  

 

2025: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%.

 

 S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2023.

 

S&P 500 Average Annual Cycle (2014-2024). 

 

% of Months in Which SPY Closed higher Than It Opened From 2015 to 2024. 

 

BraVoCycles (June 25, 2025)  - Long-term SPX Elliott Wave count.

 

See also:

Cory Mitchell (May 30, 2025)  - Best and Worst Months for the Stock Market – Seasonal Patterns.
Paul Ciana (May 17, 2025)  - S&P 500 on Track for Strongest May-to-July Gains in Years.

TPR (February 4, 2025)  - The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics. 

Hurst Cycles Timing & Straddled Troughs in the S&P 500 | David Hickson

The 80-day cycle trough was anticipated around early to mid-last week, but as of June 16, 2025 (Monday), it is considered overdue. The cycle is at 70 days since the last trough on April 7, 2025, compared to a recent average wavelength of 61 days and Hurst’s historical average of 68 days.

 

The S&P 500 is expected to form an 80-day cycle trough around mid-June 2025, potentially straddled, 
with bullish price action likely to follow toward a 20-week cycle trough in early August 2025.

 

If the trough formed on June 16, 2025, it would be 2 days later than the historical 68-day average. If it formed last Friday (June 13, 2025), it would be 1 day earlier than the average. If price continues downward without a bounce, the trough could be delayed to around Monday, June 23, 2025 (see also Cosmic Cluster Days and Seasonal Pattern), potentially due to a rephasing of the 18-month cycle trough to April 7, 2025 (displacing the 80-day trough by ~20 days).
 

 A straddled trough in Hurst cycle analysis occurs when a cycle trough is weak or hard to identify because shorter 
cycles are overshadowed by longer ones (e.g., 20-week, 40-week, 18-month).

The 80-day cycle is weak, showing minimal downward price influence, likely overshadowed by longer cycles (20-week, 40-week, 18-month). This results in a straddled trough, where the trough is subtle and lacks a strong downward move, as seen in the upper chart in the red dashed composite model line. The next 20-Week Cycle Trough is expected in early August 2025, which will likely have a stronger influence on price due to the dominance of longer cycles.

Reference:
David Hickson (June 16, 2025)  - Straddled Troughs - What You Need to Know. (video) 

 

Philip Hopf: Elliott Wave projections for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Tom Pizzuti, June 17, 2025 (Tue): It doesn’t look like an impulse up from the June 12th low. I favor a break
under 6052.00 at some point today in an effort to push down to at least 5993.00 and preferably lower.  

Jeff Hirsch, June 17, 2025: "Get Ready for NASDAQ’s Christmas in July Mid-Year Rally."

 

See also:

David Hickson (May 19, 2025)  - Bullish Hurst Cycle Targets for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. 

Krasi (June 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis.

June 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

In post-election years since 1950, early June strength has been notably stronger for NASDAQ and Russell 2000, while DJIA and S&P 500 have typically struggled.  

 

 Typical June Pattern of the S&P 500 in a Post-Election Year:

Early Strength: Starts with a slight uptrend, weaker than NASDAQ (2.5%) or Russell 2000. 

Mid-Month Dip: Drops around days 10-15 due to profit-taking or uncertainty. 

Late-Month Recovery: Rallies late June to a neutral or positive close, less than small-cap/tech gains.

 

So far in June 2025, Russell 2000 ($IWM) has gained 3.8% and NASDAQ ($QQQ) 2.5%, setting the stage for a typical brisk mid-month drop followed by a month-end rally, often led by technology and small caps.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 10, 2025) - Small Caps Rocking Typical Post-Election June.

 

 S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2023.

Bullish Hurst Cycle Targets for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin | David Hickson

For the S&P 500, an 18-month cycle trough likely formed on April 7, 2025, with confidence upgraded from the prior 80-day cycle analysis. A 40-day cycle trough occurred on May 7, 2025, with price holding above the 20-day FLD, signaling bullishness. An 80-day cycle trough is expected in the first week of June 2025, preceded by a peak. A 20-week cycle trough is anticipated around August 2025. Price crossing the 80-day FLD targets 6,360 before the June trough, while crossing the 20-week FLD targets 6,780 before the August trough. The 80-day FLD should provide support in June. Staying above the 20-day FLD during the 40-day trough and FLD crossings reflect strong bullish momentum, reinforcing the April 18-month trough.

 80-Day Cycle Trough expected around the first week of June, with a prior peak around 6,360.

18-Month Cycle Trough on April 7, 2025, with increased confidence from prior 80-day cycle analysis.
40-Day Cycle Trough on May 7, 2025, with price staying above the 20-day FLD, indicating bullishness.
80-Day Cycle Trough around the first week of June 2025, with a peak forming beforehand.
20-Week Cycle Trough around August 2025.

80-Day FLD Crossing generated a target of ~6,360, expected before the 80-day cycle trough in June 2025.
20-Week FLD Crossing generated a target of ~6,780, expected before the 20-week cycle trough in August 2025.
Support Level: The 80-day FLD is expected to provide support during the 80-day cycle trough in June 2025.

For Bitcoin, a 40-week cycle trough likely formed in early April 2025, supported by price finding stability at the 40-week FLD. A recent 40-day cycle trough formed with price at or above the 20-day FLD, showing bullishness. An 80-day cycle trough is expected by late June 2025, following a peak. An 18-month or possible 54-month cycle trough occurred in August 2024. The 40-week FLD provided support in April, and prior crossing generated an achieved upside target. Shortened cycles, like the early 40-day trough, suggest a bullish trend. Price behavior at the 20-day FLD and FLD support confirm the 40-week trough, though shorter cycle positioning, like the 20-week trough, remains uncertain. 

 80-Day Cycle Trough expected toward the end of June 2025, with a peak around 109,697 forming prior.

40-Week Cycle (= 9-Month Cycle) Trough likely formed in early April 2025, with evidence of support at the 40-week FLD.
40-Day Cycle Trough formed recently, with price staying at or above the 20-day FLD, indicating bullishness.
80-Day Cycle Trough  expected by end of June 2025, with a peak forming prior.
18-Month Cycle Trough formed in August 2024 (potentially a 54-month cycle trough).

40-Week FLD Interaction: Price found support at the 40-week FLD level in April 2025, confirming the trough.
Upside Target: Prior 40-week FLD crossing generated a target (achieved), with current bullishness suggesting further upside to around 109,697 and 123,519.

Reference:
David Hickson (May 19, 2025)  - Bullish Cycle Targets - Hurst Cycles Market Update for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. (video) 

 

See also:

Krasi (May 17, 2025)  - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis. 

Namzes (April 18, 2025)  - 2025 vs V-Shaped Recoveries of 1965, 1992, and 2018. 

 

Current 20-Day Cycle in the S&P expected to bottom during first week of June.
 

 S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue.

 

Russell 2000 and NASDAQ historically strongest in
week before Memorial Day (Monday, May 26).

 

 US Fed bought $43.6 billion in treasuries in 4 days.

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis | Krasi

We now have a potentially completed pattern on the hourly chart, with the schedule aligning to week 8 for the 10-week high, suggesting it's time for a pullback toward the 10-week low.

In the short term, the RSI appears to form a triangle in the middle, suggesting a possible zig-zag pattern with a running triangle as the Elliott B-wave. In the intermediate term, a zig-zag pattern is testing the 200-day moving average and the RSI trendline. The next move is a pullback, followed by a rise into July.

 

In the short term, Hurst cycles are nearing the 10-week high, with the next move likely to be a decline toward the 10-week low.

The 40-week low in early April 2025 was right on schedule, with the next move expected to be a rise toward the 40-week high.

 

Reference:
Krasi (May 17, 2025)  - Practical Technical Analysis: Weekly Preview.

 

» Absent an escalating trade war, there is no theme right now that can push stocks massively lower (i.e. re-test the April lows). 

I expect stocks to trade in a wide and volatile range throughout 2025 [...] perhaps making marginal all-time highs. «

 Subu Trade, May 17, 2025.

 

See also:

Namzes (April 18, 2025)  - 2025 vs V-Shaped Recoveries of 1965, 1992, and 2018. 

Namzes (April 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue = 89% Correlation.

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.

S&P 500 on Track for Strongest May-to-July Gains in Years | Paul Ciana

Bank of America's Paul Ciana analyzes 96 years of S&P 500 data to highlight the index's seasonal historical performance from May to July, and reveals average gains of 2.5% since 1928 and 5% since 2015.

 S&P 500 Average Trend: 3-Month Look Ahead (April 30 to July 31).

The S&P 500 closed at approximately 5,958 on May 16, 2025, up from 5,584 on May 1. This represents a 7.16% increase from May 1 to May 16. Forecasts predict that May will average 6,017, ending at 6,249, marking an 11.5% monthly rise. June and July also show positive projections, with June at 6,600 and July at 6,566. Historically, the period from May to July sees a 2.5% gain since 1928, or 5% since 2015. This year’s forecast suggests a 17.6% rise, well above the historical averages.

The current 7.16% increase from May 1 to May 16 already surpasses the historical three-month average, indicating that the seasonal trend is not only holding but also exceeding expectations. While the bullish momentum in the first week of May is clear, the second week is typically bearish. However, the market has continued to rise, possibly due to strong investor sentiment suggesting further gains through July, potentially reaching a 17.6% increase by July 31—far above the 2.5% and 5% historical averages. Capital Economics expects the S&P 500 to hit 7,000 by year-end, while Goldman Sachs predicts a 10% return for 2025, both supporting the idea of strong seasonal performance.

Reference:
Neil Sethi (April 30, 2025) –  BoA Paul Ciana’s S&P 500 Seasonal Trend from May to July.

Biggest 6-Week VIX% Declines and Forward S&P 500 Total Returns AND
Biggest 27 Trading Day Rallies (1950-2025).

See also:

Charlie Bilello (May 16, 2025)  - One of the Greatest Comebacks in Market History. (video)

The Economy Forecast Agency (May 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 FORECAST 2025, 2026, 2027-2029.
Ryan Detrick (May 16, 2025) - S&P 500: More Good News for Bulls.

Paul Ciana (April 4, 2025) - Second Week of April Up 72% of the Time. 

S&P 500: More Good News for Bulls | Ryan Detrick

On average, it is 18.7% higher a year later, 20 out of 20 times since 1976:

Performance of S&P 500 after more than 58% of components reach new 20-day highs.

When more than 58% of S&P 500 components hit a 20-day high, the index has historically risen by an average of 18.7% over the next 12 months, with a 100% success rate across 20 instances since 1976. Gains are less pronounced but still positive in the short term, averaging 1.7% (1 month), 5.6% (3 months), and 9.7% (6 months), with positive returns 80-85% of the time. The latest May 14, 2025, event (68% of components at a 20-day high) aligns with this historical pattern, suggesting a high probability of gains by May 14, 2026.

 

Historical May performance in post-election years (1950-2021) shows a typical pattern of strong gains in the first 6 trading days (average >1%), followed by a dip from days 6-9, and a rally through month-end. This contrasts with 2025 trends for major indices such as the NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow, and Russell 2000. By mid-May, all indices had broken above their 200-day moving averages.

 

Can we get a pullback? 24% of NASDAQ 100 stocks are overbought with an RSI above 70, a threshold indicating potential price corrections; historically, since 2020, this condition has led to a 1-week pullback 55% of the time, with an average decline of 0.71%.

 

The VIX has dropped for 6 consecutive weeks, a rare streak historically linked to potential stock market pullbacks, as shown in the data from 1992 to 2024, where the S&P 500 averaged a -0.63% return one week later in similar scenarios. The S&P 500 tends to face short-term corrections, with historical data indicating negative returns in the following 1 to 4 days 63-78% of the time, suggesting a volatility spike may be imminent.

 

 

It wasn't long ago people were talking about the Death Cross in the SPX. Back then we pointed out that the last time the death cross occurred (2022), markets reversed aggressively and managed to overshoot the 200 day by around 3.5%. A similar overshoot now would take us to around 6k.

 

 

The dominant 82-day cycle suggests a peak in the ES around June 10, followed by a decline into early August. 

 

See also:

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.