Samuel Benner (1832–1913), a once-prosperous farmer in Lawrence County, Ohio, whose wealth was destroyed by a devastating hog cholera epidemic and the Panic of 1873, devoted the remainder of his life to identifying recurring patterns in economic booms and busts. Through exhaustive analysis of commodity prices—specifically provisions (pork products such as bacon, ham, mess pork, lard, and salted pork), live hogs, corn, cotton, and pig iron (later also wheat and railroad-stocks)—he published "Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices" in 1876, a work that formed the basis for his annual forecasts through 1907.
Benner’s approach was empirical, grounded in price data from 1780 to 1872, and used to extend projections far into the future by emphasizing recurring cycles in commodity prices and business activity. He treated these cycles not merely as descriptive patterns but as prescriptive guidance, advising investors on when to buy during "hard times" and when to sell during "good times."
Benner's time-price model identified nested peaks and troughs in commodity prices, agricultural yields, and broader economic conditions. Central to his framework were the following patterns:
■ 27-Year Cycle in Pig Iron and Cotton Prices: Analyzing data from 1833 to 1899, Benner observed high prices following an ascending arithmetic progression of 8, 9, and 10 years, repeating every 27 years. Low prices, conversely, followed a descending series of 9 and 7 years. This cycle captured the volatility in industrial commodities like pig iron, which Benner viewed as a bellwether for economic health, given iron's role in manufacturing and infrastructure.
■ 11-Year Cycle in Corn and Hog Prices: Beginning in 1836, this cycle alternated between 5- and 6-year sub-periods, reflecting fluctuations in agricultural staples. Benner broke it into peaks and troughs that aligned with seasonal and weather-related disruptions.
■ Business Cycle with 16-18-20 Year Peaks: Extending his commodity analysis, Benner described a broader 11-year business rhythm, characterized by peaks spaced 16, 18, and 20 years apart. Lows coincided with pig iron troughs, while panics occurred at intervals averaging 9 years (7-11-9 pattern, akin to the Juglar cycle). Every third peak aligned roughly every 54 years, echoing longer waves like those later formalized by Nikolai Kondratieff.
Benner's astronomical time-price cycles theory.
These cycles formed a hierarchical structure: shorter oscillations (5–11 years) drove immediate price swings, while longer ones (27 and 54 years) shaped multi-decade eras of prosperity or contraction. Benner integrated them into a single chart, forecasting "ups and downs" with directives such as "Years of Good Times: High Prices and the Time to Sell" for peaks and "Years of Hard Times: Low Prices and a Good Time to Buy" for troughs.
» "B." [2026] Years of Good Times. High Prices and the Time to Sell Stocks and Values of All Kinds. «
For 2025, Benner’s cycle predicted the US stock market driving higher; for 2026, it forecasts a major top: "High Prices and the Time to Sell Stocks and Values of All Kinds" into 2032 ("Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a Good Time to Buy Stocks"). 2026 is marked as a "B"
phase year — a peak of high prices and euphoria, often the culmination
of a bull market before a shift to downturns. Historical "B" peaks have
aligned (often within 1-2 years) with major tops like: 1929 (Great
Depression peak), 2000 (dot-com bubble), 2007 (pre-2008 crisis), and
others.
Benner
attributed these periodicities to celestial mechanics, positing that
solar system dynamics influenced earthly economies. He aligned his
11-year cycle with Jupiter's major equinox, which recurs every 11.86
years—a near-match to observed corn, hog, and business fluctuations from
1836, 1847, 1858, and 1869. Jupiter, in his view, served as the "ruling
element" in natural product price cycles, potentially modulated by
electromagnetic influences from Uranus and Neptune on Saturn and, in
turn, Earth.
This
astro-economic perspective echoed earlier hints by English economist William Stanley Jevons, who suggested in 1843 planetary configurations might underpin
business cycles but abandoned the idea amid academic opposition. Modern
interpretations extend this to
lunar phases and solar activity (e.g., nodal precession, sunspot cycles), though Benner's
original emphasis remained on observable price data rather than strict astronomy and astrology.
Benner's Cycle Forecast for the Period 2015–2035.
In 1948, Edward R. Dewey, director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, updated and reprinted Benner’s work as the Foundation’s "Reprint No. 24". He lauded Benner’s pig-iron forecasts over the 60-year period from 1875 to 1935 for achieving a gain-to-loss ratio of 45:1, deeming it one of the most reliable business charts despite numerous imitations by lesser-known authors. Proponents cite
alignments with major events: the cycle's "B" peaks (high-price euphoria
phases) approximated the 1929 stock market top preceding the Great
Depression, the 2000 dot-com bust, and the 2007 pre-financial crisis
summit—often within 1–2 years.
Edward R. Dewey (1967) considered the true length of Benner’s pig iron price cycle to be 9.2 years and thus his "forecast got off the track by one year every five waves. By 1939 his projection was no longer usable." In 1971 Dewey commented: "Were Benner still alive and issuing yearly supplements to his Prophecies, he probably would have learned all that was necessary to know about cycles of fractional length and would have adjusted later forecasts accordingly."
However,
scrutiny reveals nuances: Benner's original chart, rooted in
agriculture (which comprised 53% of the US economy in the 1870s),
projected a 1927 high and 1930 low, not the exact 1929–1932 Depression
timeline. A sensational 1933 Wall Street Journal article, designed to attract attention, altered Benner’s original cycle dates for dramatic effect, thereby fueling persistent misconceptions (see chart below).
Martin Armstrong recently contended that Benner’s cycle was more a historical curiosity than a reliable predictive tool, noting that it has been both right and wrong many times:
The claim that Benner’s Cycle predicted the Great Depression is false. The chart [above] that was published in the Wall Street Journal altered Samuel Benner’s cycle, which was based on agriculture. It predicted a high in 1927, not 1929, and the low in 1930, not 1932. Claims that Benner’s work calls for a crash in 2025 are flat-out wrong. His target years would be 2019 and 2035, based on his data, not the altered, fake news published by the Wall Street Journal in 1933.
Benner was a farmer. Applying his cycle to the economy today is no longer effective, any more than the Kondratieff Wave. Both were based on the economy, with agriculture being the #1 sector. As the Industrial Revolution unfolded, those cycles remain relevant for commodities, but not the economy. Agriculture, when Benner developed his model, accounted for 53% of the economy. Today it is 3%. If they were alive today, they would have used the services industry. Capital flows are still pointing to the dollar, given the prospect of war and sovereign defaults outside the USA.
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