Top 2026 DJIA Analog Composite Points to October Low | @Fiorente2

@Fiorente2 points out that the season is approaching when, historically, many of the year's largest market declines have already occurred—including 1929, 1987, 1997, 1978, and 1979. The current DJIA cycle most closely resembles the 1890, 1898, and 1978 midterm analogs, whose red composite line's turning points have tracked the index with a 0.80 correlation over the past year. 

DJIA: 1890–1898–1978 Analog Composite with Projected Turns.

The blue line of his heliocentric Index of Cyclical Variation shows a similar pattern, although it does not correlate with the DJIA's price level. Both cycles suggests a potential low around October 2026, followed by a short-lived rebound, before a broader decline resumes into 2027 and potentially reaches a 5-year low in October–November 2027.

Reference:
@Fiorente2 (September 14, 2026) - The Dow blinks first. Will the others follow?

See also:
@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - DJIA 2026 vs Top Three Midterm Correlated Years Since 1886.

S&P 500 Hurst Cycle Analysis

Composite Model Line (CML) through December 2026.

 

August established the multi-year high for the current cycle. On August 13 (Thu), the market peaked at 7,816.7, marking the dual 18-month and 40-week crest for the move that began at 4,835 in April 2025. This peak reflected mixed cycle translation: the 18-month cycle peaked late (at 77% of its duration), whereas the 40-week cycle peaked early (at 48%). A lesser secondary crest for the 80-day and 20-week cycles followed on August 28 (Fri) at 7,771.

From these highs, the market is trending downward toward a major nested trough projected for January 9 (Sat) 2027, which aligns the 18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles. Downside targets range from 7,148 on a standard 20-week retracement to approximately 6,500 if the full 40-week amplitude unfolds.
 

How the clock is set.

 

 

Forward Projection & Confluence Calendar.  

 

Position-horizon CML: Weekly S&P 500 from the March 23 (Mon) 2020 9-year trough June 2030. 

 

September: Initial Decline

September represents the first leg of this broader decline rather than a continuation to new highs. A 20-day trough printed on September 10 (Thu) at 7,580. Provided this support holds, the only remaining minor crests are a 5-/10-/20-day cluster on September 14 (Mon), September 15 (Tue), and September 18 (Fri) near 7,710. Subsequent low projections follow in close order, beginning with the 5-day low on September 16 (Wed), followed by the 10-day low on September 21 (Mon), and concluding with the 40-day low on September 26 (Sat), which marks the midpoint of the active 80-day cycle.

October: Continued Downside

October continues the downward trajectory rather than initiating a late-stage rally. The 80-day cycle—whose crest is already locked in at 7,771—is due to trough on October 31 (Sat) (with an expected window spanning October 24–Nov 7), following a breakdown below its Future Line Demarcation (FLD) on September 9. Initial measured support stands at 7,562, followed by the 20-week FLD at 7,482.

 

Alternate Cycle Projection 

If the 7,482 (the July 31 close) support fails, an accelerated alternate resolution brings the 18-month low forward to October 5 (Mon) near 7,000, bypassing the January window entirely. There is no structural path to an October all-time high; the 8,469 projection went unfulfilled in August, and the 40-week cycle has already passed its crest.

Alternate composite, different nest: 18-month / short 40-week into Oct 5 (Mon) 2026, no
mid-October 40-week crest. Key dates: Next crest August 28 7,771.4 (40-day / 80-day / 20-
week already in), working 20-day bounce September 18 · ~7,710, then October 5 trough
~7,000. If October is a deep break instead of a moderate 80-day, this is the path.

With the 80-day uptrend breaking on September 9, this down-cycle represents an immediate risk tied to a one-third division of the major 54-month or 4½-year cycle that began in April 2025. Because that fractional cycle projection matures this fall rather than early next year, the market risks shifting into a deeper low target around October 5 (near 7,000) if the S&P closes under 7,482 before reclaiming 7,720. 

 

While January remains the principal nested low under the condition that 7,482 holds, breaching that support level invalidates the January timeline, favoring a sharper autumn selloff over extended rangebound consolidation into the new year. 

 

Dominant Cycles (in calendar days).
 

Current Cycle Positions.

 

Hurst Diamond Chart: Stacked diamonds at nested troughs from Jan 2025 through the Jan 9 2027 projection. Filled = observed; hollow = projected. Verticals mark 5+ degree synchronic lows. Apr 7 (Mon) 2025 is the in-sample 54-month / 18-month / 40-week origin. 9-year (2020), 18-year / 54-year (2003) and the 1949 54-year anchor sit off this window. 2009 is not an 18-year. 

 

See also:

Jeff Hirsch (September 2, 2026) - September Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Jeff Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

David Hickson (September 1, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, Bitcoin.

Seth Golden (July 28, 2026) - Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains. 

Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026. 

Larry Williams (December 24, 2024) - 2025 US Stock Market Outlook: The Good, the Bad & the Ugly. 

Branimir Vojcic (September 9, 2026) - DJIA vs Dominant Weekly Cycle Composite Through H1 2027. 

 

 S&P 500 spectrum composite forecast by Sergey Ivanov via Timing Solution (September 13, 2026). 

 

Claudio Fialdini applies the Delta Phenomenon's super-long-term 19-year (228-month) and long-term cycles to the S&P 500, proposing 14 alternating waves of tops and bottoms culminating in a major peak and deep crash. Anchored to the Metonic cycle, historical turning points include 1929, 1947, 1966, 1987, and 2007, with Wave 14 projecting a terminal peak in 2026. Waves 1–13 comprise the secular advance; Wave 14 marks the final crest before liquidation. The green baseline traces cycle support through the 2009 GFC (Wave 1), 2011 (Wave 3), 2015–16 (Wave 5), and 2020 COVID (Wave 7) lows, followed by a projected decline toward the multi-decade trendline.

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle: A Clock, Not a Crystal Ball

Derived mainly from M.A. Vukcevic's insights and solar-activity formula linking heliocentric Jupiter–Saturn sidereal orbits to model the sunspot cycle, the concept below uses a proprietary higher harmonics formula to project S&P 500 market swings.

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H2 2026.

Over 90% of tradeable, high-amplitude waves develop in the 7 to 12-day window. 

  

Jupiter's sidereal period is ≈11.86 years, Saturn's ≈29.46 years, their synodic period ≈19.86 years, and the Jupiter–Saturn spring-tide period ≈9.93 years. These tidal frequencies bracket the ~11-year Schwabe sunspot cycle, while the Vukcevic and Scafetta formulas treat Jupiter–Saturn orbital geometry as a pacemaker of the solar dynamo. With no consistent polarity or directional bias for the S&P 500, the blue Jupiter–Saturn curve inflects within a 1-to-11.9-day window (median 7.0 days, mean 6.3), and swings ≥7 days are bisected (blue squares) to optimize short-term correlation.

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2026.

 

The Jupiter–Saturn curve is not a crystal ball and it will not say whether to buy or sell. It is a clock. Two slow planetary rhythms were folded into a single wavy line, then sped up so that what once took years now takes days. That line rises, falls, and bottoms out again and again.

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H2 2025.

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2025.

Troughs hold the edge — ignoring the rest saves energy. Troughs are the only feature showing positive 
statistical skill (+3 points over random chance). Peaks and midpoints offer zero edge over a coin flip.

After matching it to years of S&P 500 prices, only one part of the clock is worth attention: the low points, the troughs. The test is blunt. Each blue mark is given three calendar days to sit near a real 2% swing in the daily highs and lows; the same test is then run on random dates, so the extra percentage is the only thing that counts as skill. Troughs clear that bar. Peaks do not. Midpoints, whether a swing is cut in half by time or by height, do not either.

 Troughs mark volatility, not directional certainty. Blue troughs lean slightly toward S&P swing lows (+3 points),
but cannot guarantee direction. Attempting to trade blue crests yields negative skill vs. baseline expectation.

 

Target multi-day windows over intraday precision. Maximum predictive edge (+3.3 to +3.4 points) centers on 2%–3%
swings over a 2 to 3-day window. Expecting immediate same-day triggers introduces unnecessary market noise.

 

Those extra three points are modest, and they still do not pick a side. The color of the line — up or down — does not mean the market will follow. A trough lining up with an S&P low beats chance by about three points; a trough lining up with an S&P high does not. A peak is no better at calling a high than a low. In other words, a trough can sit under a rally or a selloff. It is a date when a real swing is a little more likely to finish, not a forecast of direction.

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H2 2024.

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2024.

 

Used that way, the method is simple. The next trough is read from the calendar, including Saturdays and Sundays; the formula does not pause for the weekend. 

 

Filter out the daily ripples to trade the 7–12 day cycle. Short cycles under 6 days represent market interference
with negligible height. Over 90% of meaningful amplitude occurs within the 7–12 day wave structure.

A short window opens around that date: two days before through three days after, which is the same band in which most of those 63% of hits actually land. If the trough falls on a weekend, the window runs from the Thursday before through the Wednesday after. Inside that window nothing is done until the S&P itself speaks. 

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H2 2023.

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2023.

 

The wait is for price to carve a high and then drop at least two percent from that high, using the day’s actual high and low, not the close — that may be treated as a short, with risk defined just above the high. Or the wait is for price to carve a low and then rise at least two percent from that low — that may be treated as a long, with risk defined just under the low. Only the first such reversal is taken. If the window closes and neither has happened, there was no trade. The little wrinkles on the blue line are skipped as well: if the fall into a trough was tiny, it is interference, not a beat, and it can be ignored.

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H2 2022.

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2022.

The position is left when it has paid twice what was risked, or when price completes a two-percent swing the other way, or when the next serious trough arrives. Then the wait begins again. A signal will not appear every week, and that is the point. A good year of this habit is a handful of attempts, not a lifestyle. Three extra points versus picking dates at random is not a license to force a trade; costs, hesitation, and the occasional late swing that lands a week off the mark can wipe the edge out.

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H2 2021.

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2021.

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H2 2020.

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2020.

What is being practiced is attention, not prediction. The market still has to print the turn in the window, in its own highs and lows, or there is no trade. Used that way, the curve earns a place on the desk: a reminder to look up for a few days, then to look away until the next low. 

 

Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2027. 

 

See also:

Previous S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle examples [HERE].  

TPR (August 22, 2026) - S&P 500 vs. Ap Index: +3-Day Lag and Limits of Multi-Week Forecasting.

September Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1950, September has historically delivered bearish stock market performance across major indexes, with all-year averages dropping 0.6% to 0.8% by month-end. Midterm-election years significantly amplify this weakness through four-phases: 

 

► Sep 1–8 (Tue–Tue) = Trading Days 1–5: Sideways-to-up / modestly higher. Most midterm series (especially Russell 2000 and DJIA) rise, with several peaking near +0.5% to +1.0%.
► Sep 9–17 (Wed–Thu) = TD 6–12: Sideways to mildly fading. Early gains are largely held or only slowly given back. S&P 500 midterm often remains the strongest (still near its peak), while NASDAQ and Russell lines begin drifting lower.
► Sep 18–25 (Fri–Fri) = TD 13–18: Steady decline. The mid-month advantage disappears; indices trend lower and most move into negative territory.
► Sep 28–30 (Mon–Wed) = TD 19–21: Accelerating sell-off / sharp weakness. Losses deepen, particularly in NASDAQ and Russell 1000 (historically finishing around –1.6% to –1.8%). Russell 2000 also shows a late plunge.

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 1, 2026) - September Seasonality: Weakness Intensifies in Midterm Years.

Average S&P 500 total-return path (indexed to 100 on midterm Election Day) for all midterm years since 1970 (1970–2022), spanning roughly ±6 months. X-axis centers on Election Day (first Tuesday in November); y-axis tracks cumulative total return. The average line rises in the final ~22 trading days before the election (= October 2, 2026) and continues higher afterward (+14.1% average in the following six months). A separate “Lost Control” series (party loses presidential trifecta) lags the broader average post-election (+10.4% vs. +16.1%).

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Seth Golden (July 28, 2026) - Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains.

Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, Bitcoin | David Hickson

S&P 500: A 20-week trough formed July 29. Bullish momentum has weakened but is not yet bearish; the key question is whether another 40-/80-day peak forms before an F-category break below the 20-day FLD initiates the decline into the mid-September 80-day trough.

 

NASDAQ: A 20-week trough formed at the end of July, at least 20-week magnitude and potentially higher. The NASDAQ retains stronger near-term bullish potential than the S&P 500, with 30,239 still outstanding and a possible double peak preceding the eventual F-category decline into the 80-day trough.

 

Australian ASX: A 20-week trough formed around the US troughs, but the 20-day FLD has produced unclear signals and the trough did not clearly form below it. A 40-day trough probably formed in the third week of August, although an alternative remains. The ASX is likely approaching its second 80-day peak, but its FLD is unusually unreliable (23% interaction rating), while failure to reach 9,237 provides a stronger bearish warning than in the US markets.

 

 

Gold: A 20-week trough formed in the third week of July. Gold's bullish impetus may have been exhausted at its recent 80-day/possible 20-week peak; the confirmed F-category FLD break favors approximately $4,312 and a mid-September 80-day trough, although larger bullish cycles may remain ahead.

 

 

 
Bitcoin: Bitcoin has finally rallied from the potentially January 2026 18-month trough. A 20-week trough was identified in early July, although it could also represent a better placement of the 18-month trough. Bitcoin has finally produced the expected bullish strength; the 76,753 40-week FLD target has been exceeded, while the 20-day FLD will determine whether the 80-day trough occurred early or remains ahead.

 

 

Reference:

David Hickson (August 31, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video) 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | August–September 2026

Derived from M.A. Vukcevic's solar-activity formula linking heliocentric Jupiter–Saturn sidereal orbits to model the sunspot cycle, the concept applied below utilizes a proprietary harmonic to project S&P 500 market swings.

With no consistent polarity or directional bias, the blue Jupiter–Saturn curve inflects within a 1-to-12-day window; thus, swings exceeding seven days are bisected (blue squares) to optimize short-term S&P 500 correlation. Previous examples [HERE].

August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

The chart isolates August performance across Trump's first term (2017–2020), 2025, and the 2018 midterm. Returns have exceeded August's bearish reputation, but the structure persists: early weakness, late strength.

 

Early-month weakness, stronger second half: On average, the Nasdaq closed up nearly 6%.

Lows on August 13 (Thu) and August 17 (Mon), followed by a near 3% DJIA rally into month-end.

 

Trump-era policy shocks have repeatedly triggered selloffs that quickly reversed into "TACO Trade" rallies. This cycle differs—tensions with Iran appear less susceptible to rapid de-escalation. Seasonality is supportive, but elevated valuations, geopolitical risk, and macro fragility increase the odds that August 2026 diverges from precedent.
 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - Can Trump Defy August’s Bearish Reputation Again?

 

S&P 500 2026 vs. best-correlated year: 2007 (84%).  

 

SOX, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 Annual Seasonal Patterns 1995-2025.

August Stock Market Performance 2001-2021.

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.  

Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.

Jack Gillen (1979) - Important Solar and Lunar Degrees for Trading US Stock Indices.

July OpEx Since 1990: Friday –0.35%, Then Stabilization | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1990, July options expiration has been choppy, with the weakest performance on expiration Friday: DJIA and S&P 500 average –0.35%, NASDAQ –0.44%, and all three decline about two-thirds of the time. 

Expiration week is mixed—DJIA +0.38% (58.3% positive), S&P 500 ~flat (–0.04%), NASDAQ –0.13%. The following week stabilizes modestly (DJIA +0.15%, S&P 500 +0.09%); NASDAQ averages –0.17% but rises in 52.8% of years, skewed by a few large drops. Overall, July expiration tends to create brief downside pressure that fades as focus returns to earnings and fundamentals.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 14, 2026) - July Monthly Option Expiration: Weakest Friday, Modestly Better Following Week.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Christopher Grafton (July 13, 2026) - S&P 500 Update: 80-Day Cycle Peak by Late-July. 

Nicholas D. Savino (June 30, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026.

Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026 | Sergey Tarassov

Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution charts correlate the S&P 500 with harmonics of the 41-month Kitchin cycle (currently averaging 1,267.7 days, or 3.473 years).

 

 Note: Based on daily closes, the plotted waves are band-pass–filtered components centered on the target periodicity

(Kitchin range) and subsequently smoothed via averaging/Fourier/digital filtering, suppressing high-frequency noise

and yielding a clean sinusoidal form. Accordingly, they lack utility for day trading or short-term execution.  

The cycle projections (green, blue, and magenta lines) for 2026 in the first chart suggest that the current sideways-to-down phase in the S&P 500 concludes by mid-late-July, followed by a strong projected surge into year-end, then a decline or retracement into Q1–early Q2 2027, and a renewed rise into Q1 2028.

The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection of the S&P through 2028.

  

The long-term chart (2021–2028) indicates an upward trajectory in the S&P 500’s Kitchin cycle into late 2026, followed by a sharp correction in Q1 2027 and a continued rise extending through 2027–2028.

  

Reference:

Sergey Tarassov (July 11, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle and S&P 500.

See also:

Sergey Tarassov (2024) - Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025.

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - The Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. 

 

Cyclical Profiles of Kitchin (41-Month) and other Dominant Cycles across Assets and Sectors. 

 

Sergey Tarassov's table classifies each asset by its dominant cyclical drivers (e.g., Kitchin ~3–4y, Juglar ~9y, sunspot harmonics, Venus synodic, 7.8y Gold) and indicates which periodicities statistically dominate price behavior. The “Profile” column quantifies cycle influence, showing the proportion or confidence of a given cycle explaining variance (e.g., “Kitchin 100%” = primary driver). Overall, it’s a multi-cycle attribution framework used to build composite waveforms and time market turning points via overlapping periodic structures. "H" notation interpreted as harmonic components (e.g., 2H, 3H, 4H of Sunspot cycle). "Venus syn" → "Venus synodic" for clarity. Consistent cycle formatting: Cycle (length) where applicable. Ranges unified: e.g., 2H–4H instead of 2H 3H 4H. Missing profiles left blank (—) rather than inferred.

 

Key Cycle Periodicities. 

The second table standardizes all cycles of the first into approximate durations in days and years. Kitchin Cycle (~3.3y) ≈ Sunspot Cycle 3H (~3.7y) explains why they co-appear frequently in the dataset. Other key dominant drivers are: 5.5y (Sunspot 2H) → strongest macro-economic driver (confirmed in GDP note), 7.8y (Gold cycle) → dominant in FX + metals, and 9y (Juglar) → long equity + credit structure. Instruments with Kitchin + 3H Sunspot + Venus synodic (e.g., crypto, grains) tend to show high volatility clustering due to cycle interference.