S&P 500: More Good News for Bulls | Ryan Detrick

On average, it is 18.7% higher a year later, 20 out of 20 times since 1976:

Performance of S&P 500 after more than 58% of components reach new 20-day highs.

When more than 58% of S&P 500 components hit a 20-day high, the index has historically risen by an average of 18.7% over the next 12 months, with a 100% success rate across 20 instances since 1976. Gains are less pronounced but still positive in the short term, averaging 1.7% (1 month), 5.6% (3 months), and 9.7% (6 months), with positive returns 80-85% of the time. The latest May 14, 2025, event (68% of components at a 20-day high) aligns with this historical pattern, suggesting a high probability of gains by May 14, 2026.

 

Historical May performance in post-election years (1950-2021) shows a typical pattern of strong gains in the first 6 trading days (average >1%), followed by a dip from days 6-9, and a rally through month-end. This contrasts with 2025 trends for major indices such as the NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow, and Russell 2000. By mid-May, all indices had broken above their 200-day moving averages.

 

Can we get a pullback? 24% of NASDAQ 100 stocks are overbought with an RSI above 70, a threshold indicating potential price corrections; historically, since 2020, this condition has led to a 1-week pullback 55% of the time, with an average decline of 0.71%.

 

The VIX has dropped for 6 consecutive weeks, a rare streak historically linked to potential stock market pullbacks, as shown in the data from 1992 to 2024, where the S&P 500 averaged a -0.63% return one week later in similar scenarios. The S&P 500 tends to face short-term corrections, with historical data indicating negative returns in the following 1 to 4 days 63-78% of the time, suggesting a volatility spike may be imminent.

 

 

It wasn't long ago people were talking about the Death Cross in the SPX. Back then we pointed out that the last time the death cross occurred (2022), markets reversed aggressively and managed to overshoot the 200 day by around 3.5%. A similar overshoot now would take us to around 6k.

 

 

The dominant 82-day cycle suggests a peak in the ES around June 10, followed by a decline into early August. 

 

See also:

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.

S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue = 89% Correlation | Namzes

S&P 500 (daily chart, 89.6% correlation as of April 13, 2025. Lag = 21,832 days = 59.77 years).

Namzes, April 16, 2025.

S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 [July 8, 1965 vs April 16, 2025 (Wed)  = 21,832 days = 59.77 years].

See also:

Moore Research (April 10, 2025) - Dow Jones Industrial Avg. 1926 vs 2025 = 97% Correlation.

Yuriy Matso (April 8, 2025) - S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

 David Hickson (April 7, 2025) - Hurst Time-Price Cycle Analysis for the S&P 500 & NASDAQ.
Martin Armstrong (April 7, 2025) - DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2.

Paul Ciana (April 4, 2025) - Second Week of April Up 72% of the Time. 

On April 16, 2025, the DeMark 9-13 Sequential count is at 9-12, hinting at a 

potential trend exhaustion in S&P 500 futures and a reversal on April 17.

Chris Ciovacco, April 16, 2025.

The VIX cycle from > 50 to < 30 is on track to trigger today. A bear killer.

Jason Goepfert, April 15, 2025.

Lulled into Permabull Paradise | Callum Thomas

“To put it simply, and probably no one wants to hear it, but this is not a good set up 

— investors and speculators alike have been lulled into permabull paradise.”

 Callum Thomas, December 4, 2024.

 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars - December 4, 2024) - Tom DeMark's Sequential 9-13 Setup. 

Another ATH (its 56th of the year), and up for the 11th session in 12.
Its daily MACD and RSI pushed further positive.

S&P 500, VIX, MACD, Seasonality, and LT Hurst Cycles Projection

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars). 

 Daily trend is up. Weekly close above monthly R2. Daily NR4. Daily MACD (9,13,9) remains supportive. 

Entering Week 2 of the 3 Week Cycle. Monthly True Open. Top of 20 Trading Day Cycle around November 15-18. 

Major news on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.

Volatility S&P 500 Index (daily bars).
Weekly close at multi-month support; NR7, 2BNR. Reaching for S2, S3 likely.

Jeff Hirsch's November Seasonality during Election Years.

Winter began on November 7; Light Snow on November 22.  

US stock indices may move sideways to up into mid-November.

ChartingCycles, November 6, 2024.

Hurst Cycles Composite Model suggesting the month's swing-high was reached on November 8.

See also: 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns.

S&P 500 and the 3-Month VIX Relative to the VIX | Stephen Suttmeier

The 3-month VIX relative to the VIX (VIX3M/VIX) is below 1.0 and currently oversold. This tactical sentiment indicator signals fear heading into the 2024 Presidential election. We have observed similar conditions with the VIX3M/VIX being oversold ahead of the 2020 and 2016 Presidential elections. This suggests taking a contrarian bullish view on U.S. equities and supports the likelihood of a year-end rally.

Stephen Suttmeier, November 5, 2024

 

The spot VIX Index is currently above all of its futures contracts, in spite of a drop on November 5th. This is a condition reliably associated with price bottoms (and/or worrisome elections).

Tom McClellan, November 5, 2024 

S&P 500 vs VIX Put/Call Ratio | Jason Goepfert

Volume in VIX puts was more than two times that of calls on Friday.
That's one of the highest turnovers in 15 years.
It has typically spiked at times of extreme anxiety.

Jason Goepfert, November 4, 2024.

 

 Preliminary CBOE Put/Call Volume Ratio on Nov. 4 at 2PM ET 

is officially "pretty far up there".

Tom McClellan, November 4, 2024.

 

 S&P Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections | Steve Miller, November 4, 2024.

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars) | November 4, 2024.

Pervasive Euphoria Across The Market | Lines on a Chart by Tom

The markets closed another week at record highs, with the S&P 500 up by 2.3%, the Nasdaq by 3%, and the Dow by 2%. [...] I want to share two charts that caught my attention: The first chart, courtesy of Sentimentrader, depicts the small speculator index at the bottom. The annotation succinctly captures the essence of the chart— "small speculators are all in." 

 

 Small speculators are all-in.

This mirrors my observation last week regarding fund managers being fully invested based on the NAAIM index. The alignment between market participants, both large and small, underscores the pervasive euphoria across the market.

 Tech leadership vs S&P 500 is at highs exceeding the Great Financial Crisis.

The second chart, from Bank of America Global Research, highlights the Technology leadership versus the S&P 500, reaching levels surpassing those seen before the Great Financial Crisis. This serves as an intriguing backdrop to maintain awareness as sentiment and positioning continue to stretch.

Quoted from:

TomTheTrader1 @ Twitter/X
Lines on a Chart by Tom - (Mar 24, 2024) - The Market & The Moon. 

 

This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index number is 93.22. 

Active fund managers are all-in.

 

 [Euphoriameter]

 

 [CNN Fear & Greed Index ]

 

 

 [McClellan Oscillator]

 

S&P 500 vs VIX and Seasonal Patterns

Corrections and short-term market peaks often coincide with exceptionally low levels of market volatility.

Reference: ISABELNET - Feb 28, 2024.

 

Beware of the Ides of March: This year also coincides with the seasonal decline during presidential election years where the sitting president is running. Support levels to watch in the S&P 500: 4800 old ATH and 4600 near summer 2023 highs.

 

 Reference: Jeffrey A. Hirsch @ Twitter/X - Feb 28, 2024

February’s last trading day historically bearish. DJIA and S&P 500 have been down 9 straight and 11 of the last 12. NASDAQ has tried to buck the trend, up 3 of last 4 years. Potential setup for historically bullish first trading day of March.

Reference: Jeffrey A. Hirsch @ Twitter/X - Feb 28, 2024

 

 Reference: Wayne Whaley @ Twitter/X - Feb 29, 2024

 

Reference: Larry Williams' 2024 US Stock Market Outlook.

S&P 500 Index vs Delta of Inverted VIX | August 2018

Jul 30 (Mon) Low | Aug 2 (Thu) High | Aug 06 (Mon) Low |  Aug 14 (Tue) High

S&P 500 Index vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

The Delta Inversion Time Window opened with the Full Moon on March 01st (Thu), and currently suggests the following: The Intermediate Term Delta rotation inverted (compared to 4 lunar months earlier - details HERE) with the #1 Low on Friday, March 2nd, and a #2 High on Tuesday, March 13th. Then a #3 Low between Wednesday, March 28 and Monday, April 2 are likely (see also HERE). After a brief recovery (#4 High) another low in mid-April should be followed by new all-time-highs into May-June. If this inversion isn't done yet, we would only see some brief sideways-to-down movement into Tuesday, March 13th, followed by a further advance into the end of the month or early April, and another brief correction before new higher highs. Time will tell.

S&P 500 and DJI just forming congestion triangles while NDX keeps surging to new all-time-highs (HERE)? Next week is populated with contradicting solunar events and stock markets may simply chop side-ways-to-down into the New Moon (HERE)

S&P 500 Index and VIX vs 4 Lunar Month and 1 & 4 Lunar Year Cycles

Russell 2000 Index vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

Next week the solunar bias for stocks remains positive. However, in the Russell 2000 Index the net outcome could be almost neutral, since the continuation of the 4 Lunar Month Cycle would suggest the following choppy market action: Oct 23 (Mon) dip-down, close near opening; Oct 24 (Tue) from morning high above Monday close, down for the rest of the day - possibly to low of the week; Oct 25 (Wed) up; Oct 26 (Thu) from morning high of the week, sideways-to-down to low above Tuesday; Oct 27 (Fri) sideways. Heavy Cosmic Clusters will be modulating the geomagnetic field during this current weekend, and preparing for a mixed mood setup next week (Oct 21 = MER par NEP, MER 150 URA, NEP 045 EAR, SAT 120 EAR - all heliocentric; Oct 22 = SUN into SCO, MAR into LIB, and MER cp JUP, MER cp SAT, VEN 000 MAR, VEN 180 NEP - heliocentric). On Oct 26 (Thu), Jupiter will conjunct the Sun, and from a heliocentric perspective the Earth will be opposing Jupiter, and Venus trining Pluto. US-stock indices are in the latter stage of the first and very bullish 10 Week Cycle within the 40 Week Cycle that started with the Solar Eclipse from the August 21 major low. This cycle may peak as late as Oct 30 (Mon), and is expected to bottom in early November. Afterwards the main indices should rise to new highs.

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

In line with the 4 Lunar Month Cycle, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) turned up yesterday. The geocentric Bradley Index will sport a high on Dec 09 (Fri). Dec 10 (Sat) is a SoLunar Turn-Day and Dec 14 (Wed) a Cosmic Cluster Day. 

VIX vs Four Lunar Month Cycle

SPY | Neural Network-Forecast | by Alphee Lavoie (HERE)

Most Volatile Seasonal Period About to Begin | Nautilus Research

Source: Nautilus Research

Source: Nautilus Research