S&P 500 vs NAAIM Exposure Index │ ISABELNET

The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members.

 The NAAIM Exposure Index, with a reading of 95.58, indicates a strong bullish sentiment among active investment managers, reflecting their high confidence in the future trajectory of the stock market (published Feb 16, 2024).

 

 S&P 500 and NAAIM Index above 97 (published Feb 15, 2024)

Active investment managers are notorious for buying equities at tops and selling them at bottoms, highlighting the difficulties they encounter in accurately timing the market and making lucrative investment choices.

Reference:
ISABELNET (Feb 15+16, 2024) - S&P 500 and NAAIM Exposure Index above 97.

 

Still up: The 3 Day, the 9 Day and the 18 Day cycles vs the S&P 500 Index.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Feb 16, 2024) - DJIA S&P 500 & NASDAQ are all up 7 of last 12 days after the Presidents’ Day, but long-term record remains weak. Since 1990, average performance ranges from –0.56% for NASDAQ to –0.28% for DJIA. 

Sizable declines in the last 2 years have worsened the record.

SPX vs CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio │ Extreme Greed

On Friday, July 14th the CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio closed at 0.53, signalling extreme greed. On Monday, July 17th the SPX performed a narrow range inside day (IDnr 4 and IDnr7), and closed forming a neutral doji candle. However, on July 17th the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed at 0.63, and the 3-Day Moving Average (blue line) is about to turn up (down on the inverted scale).

SPX | Extreme Greed but Room to the Top

The VIX (CBOE volatility index) revisited the Oct 28, 2015 low at 12.8 and reversed to the upside,
while the SPX formed a NR4, and a doji candle. June 8 (Wed) is 118 CD (4 Lunar Cycles) from the major low on Feb 11, 2016.
The SoLunar Map points to a high on June 9 (Thu). There is a cluster of 3 potential Jack Gillen turn days from June 6 to 8.
Since June 10 (Fri) is a Cosmic Cluster Day, the indices may keep chopping up into Thursday or even Friday.
Please note: The NYSE McClellan Oscillator and the the McClellan Ratio Adjusted NYSE Summation Index are still rising
(HERE + HERE)

Credits: CNN Fear & Greed Index

Contrarian Riddle

The one sentiment reading that is NOT contrarian just turned bearish
(above 50 = bullish, below = bearish) ...
Source: Market Vane via ‏@Not_Jim_Cramer

... while FT covers like this one reliably show up
when market bottoms are close-by or already in.