Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup | Alex Krainer

A contrarian signal is flashing for the S&P 500 near 6,477. Smart Money Confidence (blue line) is climbing to 0.6 while Dumb Money Confidence (red line) drops to 0.4. This split occurs amid Extreme Fear, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index at 18, despite broader bearish technicals and geopolitical volatility.

» Smart money confidence is growing while dumb money confidence falls. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index has hit
Extreme Fear. Yes, the setups across the board look ugly, but chasing shorts here is riskier than remaining patient. «

 

Historically, this exact divergence—rising institutional confidence against falling retail optimism—has preceded S&P 500 rebounds roughly 70% of the time, per SentimenTrader backtests. It suggests the current sell-off may be exhausted, offering a high-probability upside reversal once fear peaks.

Reference:
Alex Krainer, March 26, 2026.

 

March 27, 2026 Update: This level of Extreme Fear (10) has been seen at previous bottoms, including those that preceded bear market rallies in 2022. The shortest bounce before lower lows occurred in 2025. A bullish divergence is now appearing, which validates the thesis. 

See also:
Branimir Vojcic (March 23, 2026) - S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low.

 

 

S&P 500 – Bearish Structure and 7% Downside Setup | Justin Bennett

On the 4 hour chart, a bearish Break of Structure (BoS) confirms sellers remain in control, so the focus stays on short setups. Just below current price sits a key daily support level (equal lows), which also functions as a weekly external low—making it structurally critical.

 » On the daily time frame, a fair value gap (FVG or imbalance) stands out as a critical zone for the coming week. 

This gap has not yet been fully mitigated, leaving unfinished business in the market. «

S&P 500 (4 hour candles).

For next week, the primary setup is a rally into a daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) that has not yet been mitigated. If price trades into this area—especially into premium above recent highs—the objective is to wait for a lower time frame Change of Character (CHoCH) before entering shorts. No confirmation, no trade.

 » Price always moves from liquidity to inefficiency and vice versa, or from internal liquidity to external liquidity and vice versa. «

Longer term, a weekly close below the external low would signal acceptance and a higher timeframe shift. That opens the path toward a large unmitigated weekly imbalance, implying roughly a ~7% downside move (toward the 6,000 region).

 

» The next logical target is a large unmitigated weekly imbalance left behind by a strong displacement candle. 

This zone has never been retested and represents a magnet for price. Projecting into that imbalance suggests a

potential move of approximately 7% to the downside, bringing the S&P 500 toward just above the 6,000 level. «

S&P 500 (weekly candles).

  

In short: bearish structure, wait for a retrace into imbalance, confirm weakness, then target continuation lower.

 

Reference:

Justin Bennett (March 20, 2026) - S&P 500: This Is Only The Beginning (7% Drop). (video). 

[obviously recorded before the March 20 market open.] 

 

S&P 500 (4-hour candles; March 20 market close): bearish 4-hour FVGs and Premium/Discount levels.

Nasdaq (4-hour candles; March 20 market close): bearish 4-hour FVGs and Premium/Discount levels.

 

 

    

See also:

 JadeCap (2026) - All Five ICT Entry Models Explained. 

orderbloque (2025) - Market Logic Based on Liquidity, Volume, and Inefficiency.

Michael J. Huddleston (2023) - ICT Liquidity - The Financial Market's Zero Sum Game. 

WadeFX (2021) - Market Structure and Powerful Setups.

Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - Accumulation and Distribution Schematics.

The NAAIM Index vs the S&P 500 | Branimir Vojcic

The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Index is at about a level which in the past resulted in corrections.

 

 BraVoCycles Newsletter, Juli 5, 2025.

 

The NAAIM Exposure Index, compiled by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, measures the average equity exposure of its member firms, reflecting their sentiment toward US equity markets. It ranges from -200% (fully leveraged short) to +200% (fully leveraged long), with 0% indicating a neutral stance (cash or hedged). As a contrarian indicator for swing trading, it’s often used to gauge market sentiment extremes, with the assumption that overly bullish or bearish positioning by active managers signals potential market reversals. 

 

However, its limitations—such as limited predictive power, small sample size, manager variability, and volatility—mean it’s not a standalone solution. While it can enhance market analysis, traders should approach it cautiously, recognizing that other indicators like the VIX may offer stronger contrarian signals for profitable swing trading.
 

Fear & Greed Index closed at 78 = Extreme Greed on July 3, 2025.
 

CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed at 0.48 on July 3, 2025.

 

CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio vs S&P 500, July 3, 2025.

 

Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 16.38 on July 3, 2025. 

 

See also:

SubuTrade (July 07, 2025)  - All-time highs and Golden Crosses  - Pullback followed by a golden summer?
David Hickson (June 30, 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500. 

Jeff Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices.  

"Please, It’s Too Much Winning. We Can't Take It Anymore, Mr. President!"

 » We're gonna win so much that you may even get tired of winning! You’ll say:

"Please, please, it’s too much winning. We can't take it anymore, Mr. President. It’s too much!" 

And I’ll reply: "No, it isn’t! We have to keep winning, we have to win more! «

 

 

POTUS 45 | 47 

 

» The US is playing a zero-sum game. China is committed to opening ever wider to the world. « 

  

» May he continue to work hard for the ultimate mission entrusted to him by the Party. « 

 

 » Thursday and Friday were 2 consecutive days in the S&P of more than -4.5% declines,

and the NASDAQ fell more than -5%. This only happened during huge crashes. What's next? «

 

» There’s a fantastic research paper called “Buffett’s Alpha”, which analyzes the “factors” that Buffett tilts towards. Buffett is exposed to the Betting-Against-Beta and Quality-Minus-Junk factors, with 1.7x leverage. I highly recommend you read this. «

 

  SubuTrade: Markets Report. Bear Markets & Trade Wars, April 05, 2025.

 

» Hurst Cycles: Short term cycles - 2-3 days higher for wave 4 and 20d high then another 2-3 days lower for wave 5

and 20d low will fit perfect. I think we had a 20w high late March and are now heading lower into the 20w low. «
Krasi: Weekly Preview, April 5, 2025.

 

Philip Hopf (April 3, 2025) - Is Trump crashing the world economy now? (video)

 

See also:
TPR (April 4, 2025) - 10-Day Cycle Expected to Bottom on Tuesday, April 8, Around 8:30 a.m.

Memo from the Chief Economist: Lament of a Bear | David Rosenberg

One can reasonably debate whether the stock market has risen exponentially but there is no arguing that the surge in the S&P 500 these past two years has been nothing short of extraordinary. And it has clearly gone much further than I thought it would, especially in these past twelve months, and so at this point, it is worth the time and effort to discuss and interpret the message from the market.
 

 » Smells of capitulation. «

The bottom line: Tip the hat to the bulls who have, after all, been on the right side of the trade, and provide some rationale behind this powerful surge. This is not some attempt at a mea culpa or a throwing in of any towel, as much as the lament of a bear who has come to grips with the premise that while the market has definitely been exuberant, it may not actually be altogether that irrational. Read on.

Quoted from:
David Rosenberg (December 6, 2024) - Memo from the Chief Economist: Lament of a Bear. 

 

See also:

Tom McClellan (December 6, 2024) - Presidential Cycle Effects with a New President.
Steve Miller (December 5, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update.

BlackRock Investment Institute (December 4, 2024) - Due to 'Mega Forces': No More Bust, Only Boom. Outlook 2025.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 4, 2024) - December Stock Market Performance in Election Years. 

Tom DeMark (November 18, 2024) - US Stock Market Nearing a Top Similar to 1929.
Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.

D'onte Goodridge (2024) - Structural Characteristics of Bullish and Bearish Months.

December Stock Market Performance in Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Trading in December is typically holiday-inspired, driven by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker due to tax-loss selling and year-end portfolio restructuring. Over the last 21 years, December’s first trading day has generally been bearish for both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. A modest rally through the sixth or seventh trading day often fizzles out as the month progresses. Around mid-month, however, holiday cheer tends to take over, and tax-loss selling pressure fades, pushing the indexes higher with a brief pause near the end of the month. In election years, Decembers follow a similar pattern but with significantly larger historical gains in the second half of the month, particularly for the Russell 2000.

■  A choppy first half of December before the year-end Santa Claus rally.

■ The Santa Claus rally begins on December 24 and lasts until January 3, 2025.

■ The 'January Effect' small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December.

■ See also [HERE], [HERE], [HERE], and [HERE].

 

Small caps tend to start outperforming large caps around the middle of the month, driven by the early January Effect. Our “Free Lunch” strategy is based on stocks making new 52-week lows on Quad-Witching Friday (December 20). The “Santa Claus Rally” (SCR) begins with the market open on December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the new year. Since 1969, the average S&P 500 gain during this seven-trading-day period has been a respectable 1.3%.

This serves as our first market indicator for the New Year. Years when the SCR fails to materialize are often followed by flat or down markets. Of the last seven instances where our SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year) did not occur, six were followed by flat years (1994, 2004, and 2015), two by severe bear markets (2000 and 2008), and one by a mild bear market that ended in February 2016. The absence of Santa this year was likely due to temporary inflation and interest rate concerns that quickly dissipated. As Yale Hirsch’s now-famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 3, 2024) - Overbought Markets Pullback During Typical Early December Weakness. 

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Effect, and Trend for the Year Ahead.

Consumers have never been more interested in buying stocks. Corporate insiders have never been less interested. 

Pick your fighter. — Jason Goepfert, December 4, 2024.

AAII Bull-Bear Spread Signals Bullish Outlook | Duality Research

Despite the S&P 500 at all-time highs, we have just seen the largest 2-week shift in investor sentiment in over a year, according to the latest AAII Survey.

 

 AAII bears outnumber bulls for the first time since late April. 

All that happened after that was a five month win streak. 

Ryan Detrick, November 28, 2024.

Bearish sentiment has surged to its highest level in more than a year, while bullish sentiment has dropped to its lowest point since April. As a result, the bull-bear spread has turned negative. For context, the average AAII bull-bear spread over the past 12 months has been +18.8%.

Duality Research, November 28, 2024.

 

 S&P 500 Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2022. See also [HERE], [HERE], [HERE], and [HERE].

S&P 500 vs NAAIM Exposure Index │ ISABELNET

The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members.

 The NAAIM Exposure Index, with a reading of 95.58, indicates a strong bullish sentiment among active investment managers, reflecting their high confidence in the future trajectory of the stock market (published Feb 16, 2024).

 

 S&P 500 and NAAIM Index above 97 (published Feb 15, 2024)

Active investment managers are notorious for buying equities at tops and selling them at bottoms, highlighting the difficulties they encounter in accurately timing the market and making lucrative investment choices.

Reference:
ISABELNET (Feb 15+16, 2024) - S&P 500 and NAAIM Exposure Index above 97.

 

Still up: The 3 Day, the 9 Day and the 18 Day cycles vs the S&P 500 Index.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Feb 16, 2024) - DJIA S&P 500 & NASDAQ are all up 7 of last 12 days after the Presidents’ Day, but long-term record remains weak. Since 1990, average performance ranges from –0.56% for NASDAQ to –0.28% for DJIA. 

Sizable declines in the last 2 years have worsened the record.

SPX vs CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio │ Extreme Greed

On Friday, July 14th the CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio closed at 0.53, signalling extreme greed. On Monday, July 17th the SPX performed a narrow range inside day (IDnr 4 and IDnr7), and closed forming a neutral doji candle. However, on July 17th the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed at 0.63, and the 3-Day Moving Average (blue line) is about to turn up (down on the inverted scale).

SPX | Extreme Greed but Room to the Top

The VIX (CBOE volatility index) revisited the Oct 28, 2015 low at 12.8 and reversed to the upside,
while the SPX formed a NR4, and a doji candle. June 8 (Wed) is 118 CD (4 Lunar Cycles) from the major low on Feb 11, 2016.
The SoLunar Map points to a high on June 9 (Thu). There is a cluster of 3 potential Jack Gillen turn days from June 6 to 8.
Since June 10 (Fri) is a Cosmic Cluster Day, the indices may keep chopping up into Thursday or even Friday.
Please note: The NYSE McClellan Oscillator and the the McClellan Ratio Adjusted NYSE Summation Index are still rising
(HERE + HERE)

Credits: CNN Fear & Greed Index

Contrarian Riddle

The one sentiment reading that is NOT contrarian just turned bearish
(above 50 = bullish, below = bearish) ...
Source: Market Vane via ‏@Not_Jim_Cramer

... while FT covers like this one reliably show up
when market bottoms are close-by or already in.