Smart Money Goes Extreme Long on Bitcoin Futures | Tom McClellan

Bitcoin futures were first included in the weekly COT Report in 2017, and were quiet early on. In most futures, the "commercial" traders are the smart money, but in Bitcoin few traders qualify as producing or using the subject commodity in their trade or business. 

 

 

So the large speculators in the non-commercial category take over the role as the smart money. These traders are net long now in a huge way. You can see in the chart what prior big net long positions have meant afterward for prices.

The red line on the chart shows the net short position of non-commercial traders (large speculators) in CME Bitcoin futures, drawn directly from the CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report. It is calculated by taking the total number of short contracts held by those non-commercial traders and subtracting the total number of long contracts they hold. The resulting figure is positive when the group is net short and negative when it is net long—the deep negative readings visible on the chart therefore indicate an unusually large net-long stance. Spreading positions are reported separately in the COT data and are excluded from this net calculation. The underlying numbers reflect open interest as of each Tuesday and are released by the CFTC the following Friday.

S&P 500 Hits New ATH as Smart Money Starts Bailing

With the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high in early August 2026, a pronounced contrarian bearish divergence has emerged among market participants. Retail "Dumb Money" Confidence (red line in the chart below) has surged from neutral into optimistic territory at 0.61, while institutional "Smart Money" Confidence (blue line) has dropped into pessimistic territory at 0.31. 

 

Retail sentiment tilts euphoric while institutional positioning turns defensive.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index signals rising greed, though not yet at extremes. 

 

Historically, the most dangerous periods for stocks are when dumb money is high and smart money is low at the same time the index is elevated. It does not mean an immediate crash is guaranteed, but it raises the odds of a meaningful pullback or at least a period of weaker returns ahead. 

 

An alternative experimental S&P 500 composite cycle

projection points to a mid-October major low.

However, having likely printed a nominal 20-week Hurst cycle low on June 30 (17.29 weeks / 121 CD off the late-March 40-week trough), the S&P remains in the rising phase of its second 20-week sub-cycle—part of a broader 40-week (9-month) and 18-month structure targeting a major low in late November (± 8 weeks).

 

Static projection based on the latest 20-week cycle period (17.29 weeks / 121 CD).

 

However, having likely printed a nominal 20-week Hurst cycle low on June 30 (17.29 weeks / 121 CD off the late-March 40-week trough), the S&P remains in the rising phase of its second 20-week sub-cycle—part of a broader 40-week (9-month) and 18-month structure targeting a major low in late November (± 8 weeks).

 
The current rise suggests to extend into early September—interrupted by the 5- and 10-day cycle higher lows of August 5–6 (Wed-Thu) and August 11–12 (Tue-Wed) and a 20-day cycle low around August 24 -28 (Mon-fri)—before yielding a late-September 80-day (10-week) cycle trough. A secondary rally into mid-October—capped below the September peak—is then likely to trigger the final decline into the primary 40-week and 18-month cycle trough in November.

 

Total Solar Eclipse on August 12.

 

Key Turning Dates of the Solar Cycle vs. the DJIA.

 

Q1 rally, mid-year correction, July and October windows for yearly low, rally in Q4.  

Average S&P 500 total-return path (indexed to 100 on midterm Election Day) for all midterm years since 1970 (1970–2022), spanning roughly ±6 months. X-axis centers on Election Day (first Tuesday in November); y-axis tracks cumulative total return. The average line rises in the final ~22 trading days before the election (= October 2, 2026) and continues higher afterward (+14.1% average in the following six months). A separate “Lost Control” series (party loses presidential trifecta) lags the broader average post-election (+10.4% vs. +16.1%).

See also: 

Nicholas D. Savino (August 2, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for August 2026.

Jeff Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Seth Golden (July 28, 2026) - Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains.

 Jack Gillen (1979) - Important Solar and Lunar Degrees for Trading US Stock Indices.

Hedge Funds Dump Tech, While Retail Piles Into QQQ | Jason Goepfert

Hedge funds sold US tech stocks at the second-most aggressive pace in a decade (largest net selling since 2021), according to Goldman Sachs Prime Book data.

Everybody back in the pool: 21-day sum of daily fund flows in QQQ.

 

This institutional selling coincides with strong retail buying, as rolling 21-day QQQ fund flows hit the third-largest inflow in recent years—even as Nasdaq 100 prices rise. A classic smart money versus retail divergence. May 7 (Thu) is the scheduled ITD #5 peak (± 4 CD) in US stocks.

 

Reference:
Jason Goepfert (May 4, 2026) - Funds are selling while retail is buying.

Goldman Sachs Prime Book, as of April 30: Go with the flow.

The GS Prime Book reflects aggregated activity from Goldman's prime brokerage clients (a large but not complete slice of the hedge fund universe), so it's directional but not exhaustive. Similar insights sometimes come from JPMorgan or Morgan Stanley prime services reports. Goepfert specializes in sentiment indicators, including fund flows, options activity, positioning (e.g., hedge funds via prime broker data like Goldman Sachs), and retail vs. institutional behavior (e.g. Dump Money Confidence vs. Smart Money Confidence). Access requires a subscription, but he often shares highlights on X.

 

As of May 1, Dumb Money Confidence was very optimistic,

while Smart Money Confidence was neutral. 

See also:
Alex Krainer (April 27, 2026) - S&P 500 Dumb Money Confidence Enters Extreme Optimism. [May 3 update HERE] 

Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - The Wyckoff Method of Trading in Stocks: Accumulation and Distribution Schematics. 

S&P 500 Dumb Money Confidence Enters Extreme Optimism | Alex Krainer

S&P 500 Dump Money Confidence (red line) has risen above 70%, signaling extreme optimism historically linked to consolidations or pullbacks. Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed Index sits at 67 (Greed), and Smart Money Confidence (blue line) stays perfectly neutral at 50% ahead of this week's major news, rates, and earnings.

 

This is not a bearish crash call but a contrarian warning. Dumb Money Confidence above 70% often marks trend exhaustion—leading to sideways trading, 5–10% pullbacks, or simply pauses before quarterly earnings. These sentiment indicators are statistically reliable over decades but can't time exact market tops. 

 

Reference:
Alex Krainer, April 27, 2026.

See also:

Alex Krainer (March 27, 2026) - Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Nicholas D. Savino (April 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for April 2026.

Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup | Alex Krainer

A contrarian signal is flashing for the S&P 500 near 6,477. Smart Money Confidence (blue line) is climbing to 0.6 while Dumb Money Confidence (red line) drops to 0.4. This split occurs amid Extreme Fear, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index at 18, despite broader bearish technicals and geopolitical volatility.

» Smart money confidence is growing while dumb money confidence falls. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index has hit
Extreme Fear. Yes, the setups across the board look ugly, but chasing shorts here is riskier than remaining patient. «

 

Historically, this exact divergence—rising institutional confidence against falling retail optimism—has preceded S&P 500 rebounds roughly 70% of the time, per SentimenTrader backtests. It suggests the current sell-off may be exhausted, offering a high-probability upside reversal once fear peaks.

Reference:
Alex Krainer, March 26, 2026.

 

March 27, 2026 Update: This level of Extreme Fear (10) has been seen at previous bottoms, including those that preceded bear market rallies in 2022. The shortest bounce before lower lows occurred in 2025. A bullish divergence is now appearing, which validates the thesis. 

See also:
Branimir Vojcic (March 23, 2026) - S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low.

 

 

December Stock Market Performance in Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Trading in December is typically holiday-inspired, driven by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker due to tax-loss selling and year-end portfolio restructuring. Over the last 21 years, December’s first trading day has generally been bearish for both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. A modest rally through the sixth or seventh trading day often fizzles out as the month progresses. Around mid-month, however, holiday cheer tends to take over, and tax-loss selling pressure fades, pushing the indexes higher with a brief pause near the end of the month. In election years, Decembers follow a similar pattern but with significantly larger historical gains in the second half of the month, particularly for the Russell 2000.

■  A choppy first half of December before the year-end Santa Claus rally.

■ The Santa Claus rally begins on December 24 and lasts until January 3, 2025.

■ The 'January Effect' small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December.

■ See also [HERE], [HERE], [HERE], and [HERE].

 

Small caps tend to start outperforming large caps around the middle of the month, driven by the early January Effect. Our “Free Lunch” strategy is based on stocks making new 52-week lows on Quad-Witching Friday (December 20). The “Santa Claus Rally” (SCR) begins with the market open on December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the new year. Since 1969, the average S&P 500 gain during this seven-trading-day period has been a respectable 1.3%.

This serves as our first market indicator for the New Year. Years when the SCR fails to materialize are often followed by flat or down markets. Of the last seven instances where our SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year) did not occur, six were followed by flat years (1994, 2004, and 2015), two by severe bear markets (2000 and 2008), and one by a mild bear market that ended in February 2016. The absence of Santa this year was likely due to temporary inflation and interest rate concerns that quickly dissipated. As Yale Hirsch’s now-famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 3, 2024) - Overbought Markets Pullback During Typical Early December Weakness. 

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Effect, and Trend for the Year Ahead.

Consumers have never been more interested in buying stocks. Corporate insiders have never been less interested. 

Pick your fighter. — Jason Goepfert, December 4, 2024.

AAII Bull-Bear Spread Signals Bullish Outlook | Duality Research

Despite the S&P 500 at all-time highs, we have just seen the largest 2-week shift in investor sentiment in over a year, according to the latest AAII Survey.

 

 AAII bears outnumber bulls for the first time since late April. 

All that happened after that was a five month win streak. 

Ryan Detrick, November 28, 2024.

Bearish sentiment has surged to its highest level in more than a year, while bullish sentiment has dropped to its lowest point since April. As a result, the bull-bear spread has turned negative. For context, the average AAII bull-bear spread over the past 12 months has been +18.8%.

Duality Research, November 28, 2024.

 

 S&P 500 Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2022. See also [HERE], [HERE], [HERE], and [HERE].

ICT Liquidity - The Financial Market's Zero Sum Game | Michael J. Huddleston

For a trader or institution to buy or sell an instrument, stock, currency pair, etc. it is necessary that there is another trader or institution or 'the crowd' with the equivalent opposite position. If the smart money (capital controlled by institutional investors, market mavens, central banks, funds, and other financial professionals) wants to buy a financial instrument, they will need sellers in the market. Our presumptions are: 

1. All financial markets are a zero sum game. 
2. In all financial markets price is generated and driven by the market maker's auction algorithm. 
3. The market maker's price generating algorithm continuously calculates, re-balances and manages the flow of orders always in line with the fundamental 'Minimum of 50.05% Retracement-Rule across all time-frames: fractions of a second, minutes, hours, days, weeks, months and quarters. 
4. The algorithm generates the mathematically highest possible return for the market maker.
   

 

For the market makers, for the big dealers in the exchanges - for the smart money - liquidity is provided by the dump money, by the crowd, at levels where the dump money usually has its Stop loss, Buy and Sell orders. Driving price beyond these order-levels, the market maker collects liquidity - the money of the uninformed. Smart money activates these stop, buy and sell orders to feed and place their contrary positions in the market. Richard D. Wyckoff - a brilliant speculator, and later on a broker and market maker himself - explained the accumulation and distribution process of the 'market maker' - of the Composite Operator - in all detail ninety years ago. The Composite Operator manipulates the price in order to collect 'free money'. Liquidity.  

 

There are two types of liquidity:

1.          Buy Stops Liquidity (BSL)

The BSL is originated by Stop Losses of sell orders, after the BSL is taken, the market reverses to the downside, because banks use the BSL to place sell orders in the market. 

 

 

Regarding Buy Stops Liquidity (BSL) focus on:
PMH - Previous Month's High
PWH - Previous Week's High
PDH - Previous Day's High
HOD - High Of Day
OLD HIGH - Swing High
EQUAL HIGHS -  Retail Traders' typical 'Resistance'.

When BSL is taken, the market reverses to the downside.

 

2.          Sell Stops Liquidity (SSL)

The SSL is originated by Stop Losses of Buy orders, after the SSL is taken, the market reverses to the Upside, because banks use the SSL to place Buy orders in the market. 

 

 

Regarding Sell Stops Liquidity (SSL) focus on:
PML - Previous Month's Low
PWL - Previous Week's Low
PDL - Previous Day's Low
LOD - Low Of Day
OLD LOW - Swing Low
EQUAL LOWS - Retail Traders' typical 'Support'.

When SSL is taken, the market reverses to the upside.

 

The Stop Hunt (SH) is a manipulation movement used by the Market Makers to neutralize liquidity (stop losses). It's a false breakout above /below the zone where there is liquidity. Market Makers usually use High Impact News to take liquidity.
 

High Impact News Calendar

Always pay attention to the news calendar, to know the pairs that will move, generally, pairs with many news forecasts ('High Impact'), those currency pairs, stocks, bonds, etc. are going to move (trending) during the day or week.

Reference:
WadeFX (2021) - Market Structure & Powerful Setups.

See also:

Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - The Wyckoff Method of Trading in Stocks.

Jason A. Jankovsky (2007) - The Importance of Buy/Sell 50% Retracements. 

2022 ICT Mentorship.
2022 ICT Mentorship - Notes.

TPR (2022) - Richard D. Wyckoff's Accumulation & Distribution Schematics.

TPR (2022) - The Daily & the Weekly Market Maker Cycles: ICT Intraday Trading Templates. 
TPR (2022) - Daily Range = Accumulation + Manipulation + Expansion + Distribution (AMD).