June 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

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April 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with bullish days present throughout April. Traders and investors appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.

 Since 1950, April has shown steady market gains from the first trading day to the last, with occasional

minor dips. In post-election years, April starts weaker, but the dip is brief and shallow.

As you can see in the above chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and post-election years since 1950, April has historically been nearly perfect with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In post-election years, April does tend to open on the soft side, but the early dip has historically been shallow and brief.

 

In post-election years, April remains a top performing month ranking second best for DJIA and S&P 500, and third best for NASDAQ. Average gains since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500 are comparable to all years, but notably improve for NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. NASDAQ’s three post-election year April declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 27, 2025) - Taxes Schmaxes – April Strong Open to Close – Deadline Impact Fades.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2025) - April is the second-best month for S&P 500 and DJIA.

 

Other Bullish Scenarios:

 

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%. 

Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023).

Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

 

Bearish Scenarios:

 

 Next 20-day Hurst cycle due to bottom around FOMC on April 9 (Wed)(± 1 TD).

 

 

 FINRA Margin Debt vs S&P 500 Real Values, suggesting risk as of late March 2025. 

 

 

Potential opportunity shorting the S&P 500 in
the next major downturn over the coming weeks.

Trigger Trades, March 27, 2025.

 

See also:

TPR (March 7, 2025) - The Three Week Cycle, Quarterly Shift, and IPDA Data Ranges.

TPR (March 11, 2025) - S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle. 

TPR (March 23, 2025) - Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2.

 TPR (December 10, 2024) - 2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

 

The Kondratieff Cycle and Its Subdivisions.

March 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

Rather turbulent in recent years, with wild fluctuations and large gains and losses, March has been experiencing some significant end-of-quarter hits. In post-election years since 1950, March has tended to open strongly, and this strength has generally persisted until shortly after mid-month (as indicated by the dashed arrow below). At that point, the major indexes lost momentum and closed out March with some choppy trading. In contrast, over the past 21 years, March has trended lower through mid-month before rallying in the second half.

 March strong early-month, mid-month losses with choppy trading,
often rally after Quadruple Witching (March 21), likely sharp decline the week after.

March is a particularly busy month. It marks the end of the first quarter, which brings with it quarterly Quadruple Witching (Friday, March 21) and an abundance of portfolio maneuvers from Wall Street. In recent years, March Quad-Witching Weeks have been quite bullish, but the week after has been nearly the exact opposite, with the DJIA down 22 of the last 37 years—and often down sharply.

 

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 26, 2025) - Beware The Ides of March.

 

 Updated $SPX July-Oct 2023 correction overlay:
1 week bounce then down into end of March final low. — Namzes, February 28, 2025.

See also:

Robert Miner (2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Parties. 

 The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics.

The Toy2mt Barometer Signals Neutrality for 2025 │ Wayne Whaley

The S&P's performance from November 19 to January 19 has an interesting history of accurately predicting the direction of the S&P over the subsequent 12 months. I refer to this time frame as Toy2mt (Turn of the Year - Two months).  See November 23rd Post. 

 Neutral Toy2mt Signal Performance since 1950 = Average 9.3% Annual Gain.

 

• When Toy2mt is greater than 3%, the following year is 36-2 for an average gain of 16.7%.
• When Toy2mt is negative, the following year is 7-11 for an average loss of 2.6%.
• The 2025 Toy2mt came in at 1.35%.  The above table shows the post-1950 performance, in which Toy2mt came in at 0-3%, which is considered the neutral signal range.

Neutral Toy signal performance is in line with historic norms, as 73.7% of post-1950 Toy years have been positive for an average gain of 9.3%. I have other Toy Barometers with similar forecasting acumen that are still works in progress, which I defer to when Toy2mt is inconclusive.

Wayne Whaley, January 18, 2025.

 

MAG 7 January 2025 Seasonality Charts. 

 

 See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 17, 2025) - Market Bounce After December Low Breach Encouraging. 

S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Patterns │ Jeff Hirsch

S&P 500 Post-Election Year Pattern after incumbent party loss │ Jeff Hirsch,  January 2, 2025. 

The STA Aggregate Cycle combines the 1-Year, 4-Year, and 10-Year cycle patterns. 

 

Recent 21-Year January Market Performance (1999-2019) │ Jeff Hirsch, January 2, 2020.

 

 S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns considering the January Trifecta │ Jeff Hirsch, January 31, 2017. 

 

S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2025 (1-Year, 4-Year, and 10-Year cycle patterns) │ Day Hagan, December 31, 2024.

 

See also:
Larry Williams (December 24, 2024) - 2025 US Stock Market Outlook.
Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.
Tom McClellan & Branimir Vojcic (December 23, 2024) - Possible 2025-1981 Analog for the S&P 500.

2025 US Stock Market Outlook │ Larry Williams

My outlook on the US stock market in 2025 uses the metaphor "Clint Eastwood Market," representing a mix of good, bad, and ugly factors:

• On the positive side, there are no immediate signs of a US recession, with strong employment figures and a labor market expected to improve in early 2025. Business conditions remain stable, and historically, stock markets tend to perform well in the first year of a presidential term. 
• However, there are risks, including potential profit-taking after a strong 2024 market, the uncertainty surrounding trade policies and tariffs, and the unpredictable actions of the Fed, Congress, and business leaders like Elon Musk. 
• On the negative side, market valuations, such as high price-to-earnings and Shiller CAPE ratios, suggest that the market is overvalued, which increases the risk of a correction. Additionally, industrial production is underperforming, which could hinder economic growth, and inflationary pressures from the excessive money supply expansion since the COVID-19 pandemic may contribute to market volatility.

 

Very Long-Term Market Wave in the DJIA and US-stocks down into 2038.

 

 Shorter Long-Term view on the DJIA with major lows in 2025 and 2028.

 

2025 will be a trading range market with a bullish bias.

 

 Selling pressure in Q1 of 2025. Second half of the year strong. Overall gains.

Given the current very high valuation ratios, the 2025 forecast indicates slower growth and market underperformance compared to historical averages. Therefore I don’t foresee a runaway bull market in US stock indices in 2025, and volatility is likely to be a key characteristic, with short-term rallies and corrections. Very long-term market cycles suggest we are at the beginning of a prolonged period of sideways movement, with the next major bull market not expected to begin until around 2038. 

Regarding a major crash that some are constantly talking about, I don't see it occurring in 2025 either. While the market will be challenging, the overall bias will lean toward the upside.

Reference:
Larry Williams ( December 20, 2024) - 2025 Market Outlook: The Good, Bad, and Ugly. (video)

2025 Bitcoin forecast.

See also:

Larry Williams (December 31, 2024) - Forecast 2025.

Larry Williams (December 18, 2023) - 2024 US Stock Market Outlook.

Larry Williams (2022) - How Markets Move: The Natural Cycle of Range Change.  

The S&P has traded above its 200-DMA all year. This has happened 11 other times since 1952, and the next-year move has been about half the average. Last time this happened was in 2021, and before that, 2017  — Bespoke, December 24, 2024.

December Stock Market Performance in Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Trading in December is typically holiday-inspired, driven by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker due to tax-loss selling and year-end portfolio restructuring. Over the last 21 years, December’s first trading day has generally been bearish for both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. A modest rally through the sixth or seventh trading day often fizzles out as the month progresses. Around mid-month, however, holiday cheer tends to take over, and tax-loss selling pressure fades, pushing the indexes higher with a brief pause near the end of the month. In election years, Decembers follow a similar pattern but with significantly larger historical gains in the second half of the month, particularly for the Russell 2000.

■  A choppy first half of December before the year-end Santa Claus rally.

■ The Santa Claus rally begins on December 24 and lasts until January 3, 2025.

■ The 'January Effect' small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December.

■ See also [HERE], [HERE], [HERE], and [HERE].

 

Small caps tend to start outperforming large caps around the middle of the month, driven by the early January Effect. Our “Free Lunch” strategy is based on stocks making new 52-week lows on Quad-Witching Friday (December 20). The “Santa Claus Rally” (SCR) begins with the market open on December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the new year. Since 1969, the average S&P 500 gain during this seven-trading-day period has been a respectable 1.3%.

This serves as our first market indicator for the New Year. Years when the SCR fails to materialize are often followed by flat or down markets. Of the last seven instances where our SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year) did not occur, six were followed by flat years (1994, 2004, and 2015), two by severe bear markets (2000 and 2008), and one by a mild bear market that ended in February 2016. The absence of Santa this year was likely due to temporary inflation and interest rate concerns that quickly dissipated. As Yale Hirsch’s now-famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 3, 2024) - Overbought Markets Pullback During Typical Early December Weakness. 

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Effect, and Trend for the Year Ahead.

Consumers have never been more interested in buying stocks. Corporate insiders have never been less interested. 

Pick your fighter. — Jason Goepfert, December 4, 2024.

Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish │ Jeff Hirsch

With a clear winner decided, the history of market gains from Presidential Election Day to year-end is encouraging. As shown in the tables above and below, the market tends to rally from Election Day to year-end, with a few exceptions due to exogenous factors.

 DJIA up 72.2% of the time, with an average gain of 2.38%.
S&P 500 up 66.7% of the time, with an average gain of 2.03%.
NASDAQ up 76.9% of the time, with an average gain of 1.50%.
Russell 2000 up 61.5% of the time, with an average gain of 4.93%.

Profit-taking at the end of 1984 kept stocks flat after the rally from the July bear market bottom, driven by anticipation of Reagan’s landslide reelection victory. The infamous undecided election roiled stocks at the end of 2000 amid the dot-com bear market of 2000-2001. The Great Financial Crisis and the 2007-2009 generational bear market caused a further plunge in late 2008, fueled by shrinking economic data and uncertainty surrounding a change in party and the incoming, unknown Obama administration. The escalating European Debt Crisis kept the stock market on edge in late 2012.

 » Bullish update: We have a winner. «

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, November 6, 2024.

Overall, from Election Day to year-end, the DJIA is up 72.2% of the time, with an average gain of 2.38%. The S&P 500 is up 66.7% of the time, with an average gain of 2.03%. The NASDAQ is up 76.9% of the time, with an average gain of 1.50%, and the Russell 2000 is up 61.5% of the time, with an average gain of 4.93%.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 5, 2024) - Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025.
Ryan Detrick (October 28, 2024) - Best Six-Month Stretch for the S&P 500 Begins in November.

Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points │ Jeff Hirsch

The first 5-6 trading days are typically bullish, followed by weakness in the week before Thanksgiving. The DJIA and S&P 500 strength has shifted to mirror the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the most bullish days occurring at the beginning and end of the month.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, November 5, 2024

 

 November Performance in “All Years” (1930-2015) and “Election Years” (1932-2012) 

— Jeff Hirsch, November 15, 2016.

 

November Market Performance (2001-2021) — Jeff Hirsch,  October 20, 2022.

 

 S&P 500 and Nasdaq average performance during the presidential election week.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025.
Ryan Detrick (October 28, 2024) - Best Six-Month Stretch for the S&P 500 Begins in November.

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for November of the Election Year 2024.
Alternative approach: 4-Year Presidential Cycle in Line with the Decennial Cycle.

Halloween Trading Strategy Begins Next Week | Jeff Hirsch

Next week provides a special short-term seasonal opportunity, one of the most consistent of the year. The last 4 trading days of October and the first 3 trading days of November have a stellar record the last 30 years. From the tables below:

     S&P 500: Up 25 of last 30 years, average gain 1.96%, median gain 1.61%.
     NASDAQ: Up 25 of last 30 years, average gain 2.43%, median gain 2.29%.

     DJIA: Up 24 of last 30 years, average gain 1.95%, median gain 1.39%.
     Russell 2000: Up 23 of last 30 years, average gain 2.34%, median gain 2.56%.

Many refer to our "Best Six Months Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy" as the "Halloween Indicator" or "Halloween Strategy" and of course “Sell in May”. These catch phrases highlight our discovery that was first published in 1986 in the 1987 Stock Trader’s Almanac that most of the market’s gains have been made from October 31 to April 30, while the market, on average, tends to go sideways to down from May through October.

Since issuing our Seasonal MACD Buy signal for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000, on October 11, 2024, we have been moving into new long trades targeting seasonal strength in various sectors of the market via ETFs and a basket of new stock ideas. The above 7-day span is one specific period of strength during the “Best Months.” Plenty of time remains to take advantage of seasonal strength.

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 24, 2024) - Halloween Trading Strategy Treat Begins Next Week. 

 

 Election-Year Octoberphobia — Jeff Hirsch, October 9, 2024. 

 

 November Performance in “All Years” (1930-2015) and “Election Years” (1932-2012) 

— Jeff Hirsch, November 15, 2016.

 November Market Performance (2001-2021) — Jeff Hirsch,  October 20, 2022.

 

October 28th has, on average since 1950, been the strongest day of the year.
 

 

 S&P 500 average Performance per Day & Day by Day Hit Rate (1928-2024).

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for Q4 of the Election Year 2024
- Presidential Cycle in line with the Decennial Cycle.
 

The Cycle Composite for 2024 combines the 1-year, 4-year, and 10-year cycles. 

Trends are more important than levels. —  Ned Davis Research, October 15, 2024.

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars) and current 21-Trading Day Cycle ( ± 3 TD).

 

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Goldman Sachs' technical strategist Scott Rubner indicates that US stocks are entering a favorable trading environment due to capital flow trends. He expects the quiet period for stock repurchases to end on October 25, with listed companies likely to engage in significant buybacks in November and December, estimated at $6 billion per day, accounting for 21.1% of annual buybacks.

As mutual funds, the largest sellers of US stocks, begin to withdraw before Halloween, this may positively impact stock prices. October marks the end of the fiscal year for most mutual funds, potentially leading to sell-offs of underperforming assets for tax reasons. Rubner noted that all 756 mutual funds, valued at $1.853 trillion, end their fiscal year on October 31, 2024. Historically, American households increase stock purchases in November, with capital inflows into mutual funds and ETFs peaking during this month.

 In Q4 2024, the NASDAQ may gain more than double what the S&P gains.

Looking ahead to the US election, Rubner suggests that post-election, market volatility may reset, benefiting various trading strategies. Additionally, strong non-farm payroll growth and shifting inflation expectations are becoming critical market factors, particularly regarding a potential Trump election victory, which may reignite trading interest.

By end of 2024, S&P far above 6,000 —  Scott Rubner, October 15, 2024.

 

See also:
Steve Miller (October 25, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update (video)