S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Presidential Cycle 2024–2027

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Presidential Election Cycle 2024 - 2027:
Four-Year Presidential Cycle aligned with the Decennial Cycle.

 

These charts synthesize the Decennial Cycle and the Four-Year Presidential Election Cycle to create a historical composite. By isolating years since 1900 that fall simultaneously in the fourth year of a decade and a presidential election year (1904, 1924, 1944, 1964, 1984, and 2004), the chart identifies recurring performance patterns unique to these specific cyclical intersections.

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Election Year 2024.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Post-Election Year 2025.

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Midterm Year 2026.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Pre-Election Year 2027.

Cross check dates with historical trends, price probabilities, news calendar, Hurst cycles, etc.

Historically, the presidential election cycle exerts a more profound influence on equity markets than the decennial cycle, with the notable exception of years ending in five and eight. Although modern market cycles show more evenly distributed returns, 'Year 4' election cycles remain a standout period of strength. A composite of the last six instances (1904, 1924, 1944, 1964, 1984, and 2004) reveals that the S&P 500 averaged a 14% full-year return during these specific cyclical overlaps.

 Decennial Cycle: Average annual change in the DJIA (1881-2023).

The 5th year of the decennial cycle is the strongest performer for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Boasting an 86% win rate (12 out of the last 14 cycles), these years have averaged a 26% return. Downside remains rare and minimal, with 2005 (-0.61%) and 2015 (-2.2%) representing the only two negative 5th years in the index's history.

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025.