S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Presidential Election Cycle 2024 - 2027

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Presidential Election Cycle 2024 - 2027.
4 Year Presidential Cycle in line with the Decennial Cycle.

The chart above is an attempt to merge the Decennial Cycle with the Four-Year Presidential Election Cycle by creating a composite of all US presidential elections that took place since 1900 in the fourth year of a decade (1904, 1924, 1944, 1964, 1984, 2004). 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Election Year 2024.

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for Q4 of the Election Year 2024.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for October of the Election Year 2024.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for November of the Election Year 2024.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for December of the Election Year 2024.

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Post-Election Year 2025.

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for Q1 of the Post-Election Year 2025.

Cross check dates with historical trends, price probabilities, news calendar, Hurst cycles, etc.

The four-year presidential election cycle has a profound impact on the economy and the stock market, with a distinct pattern emerging over time. Notably, the four-year cycle has become a more significant driver of market behavior than the decennial cycle, except in extraordinary years such as those ending in five and eight. In recent decades, the US has experienced a period of unprecedented prosperity, with returns distributed relatively evenly across the decade. Fourth years, in particular, have tended to perform better than average. Looking back, the last six election years ending in four (2004, 1984, 1964, 1944, 1924, and 1904) the S&P 500 averaged a full-year gain of 14%.

 Decennial Cycle: Average annual change in the DJIA (1881-2023).

The 5th year is by far the best year of the decennial cycle. In the Dow Jones Industrial Average out of the last 14 "5th years", 12 were up averaging a return of 26% per year. The only two 5th years that have ever been negative in the history of the DJIA were 2005 (-0.61%) and 2015 (-2.2%).

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025. 

TPR - Seasonality.